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Has the bills offense shown any improvement from week 1 until now?


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30 minutes ago, jrober38 said:


Good god.

 

He had another QB rating under 80 and we scored 16 points. 

 

How low is the bar for what a competent QB and offense should look like?

 

He's 29th in the NFL in QB Rating, has thrown 10 TDs in 9 games and leads one of the worst offenses in the NFL.

 

Our offense is awful because what we're getting from the QB position has been awful. Aside from beating up on garbage teams, he hasn't looked good all season. 

 

You didn’t address a single one of my points. Proving again, that your anti-Allen narrative is all you can see. Have fun in the echo chamber bud.

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14 minutes ago, papazoid said:

2nd year qb lamar jackson says hello

 

sound the alarm....josh allen is mediocre at best.....currently ranked 29th & 30th in passer rating and total qbr....not good enough

 

THIS!!!!

 

How many QBs take a big step forward after being a starter 2 years?

 

The answer is maybe 2-3 guys over the past 20 years. 

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28 minutes ago, D. L. Hot-Flamethrower said:

Good Topic! Warning this is not just a yes they're regressing. Although that could be the answer.

 

I started out by asking the OPs question and trying to answer objectively. I don't have access to anything more than traditional stats. But, that should suffice for purposes of comparing the early part of the season, to the later part.

 

Breaking up into buckets beginning with week 1 and ending with Game 4 NE, this is fair, end of Sept., to the eye appears to be a watershed game for the team, this will be referred to as P1 going forward. And, of course the second bucket-P2, will be game 5 through yesterday-5 games. Everything will of course be per game. Let's see if there are any trends?

 

1. PPG and YPG; P1 19.0 ppg/387ypg, P2 19.6 ppg/297ypg, surprisingly perhaps the Schedule is pretty even in each period. P1 .324%, P2.348, the difference is balanced off by one extra home game in P2, so we can put the SOS to bed for the purposes of this discussion. Production down.

 

2. Where is drop in yardage coming from? P1 Passing 240ypg/ Rushing 147ypg P2 Passing 191 ypg/ Rushing 106ypg, that's a 20% decline in passing yards, and 28% in rushing yards. So both are well down.

 

3. Is this being driven by the number of attempts either way? This is a very interesting to me. P1 Pass Att/Rush Att 37pg/31pg drop of 16%; P2 29pg/26pg drop of 11%. Overall the Bills are running 14% fewer plays! Does that mean our defense is on the field more? The answer is perhaps surprisingly NO, P1 63, P2 60 a drop of 5% give or take. Coincidentally or not, Bills games have dropped from 131 plays to 115 plays. Games time have also shorted to an average of 2:53 from 3:13 in P1. Does it seem to anyone else like we've slowed the pace of our games down? huddle more? running the clock down under 5 secs? It does to me. We need to answer my original efficiency question another way.

 

4. Yards Per Rush P1 5.1 P2 4.2, is this because Josh is running less and worse? Surprisingly no. His attempts/yard/average P1 8/33/4.3 P2 7/29/4.5 pretty similar. I'll save you the suspense and tell you the initials of the biggest drop off, you probably could guess FG.

 

5. How about the passing game? It has actually been much more efficient. Completion % is steady at 60%, But with P1 being 3 TDs/6INT and P2 being 7TDS/ 1 INT ; much of the efficiency gain is here, Yards per attempt is relativitely close 6.5 to 6.3. As are Yards Per Comp. So, Josh was asked after NE to stop playing "hero" ball, cut down on the mistakes and let the rest of the team do its job. He has done that, the team has performed worse.

 

My summary:

It appears like the coaching staff, after NE, has decided to slow the game pace down, and has asked Josh not to make throwing errors. Play to the strength of our defense, which is a story for another day. I know some will scream they are trying to protect Josh, and perhaps to a certain extent they are. But, doing this also protects McD's defense. As to the drop in the running game, The first 4 games was a lot of McKenzie motion, the one game since NE where there was a lot of that was...Washington. Devin Singletary's big running game. I have no answer to the Singletary usage conundrum. IMHO laying the regression at the feet of JA is both simple and incorrect. Others have a lot to answer for. Have they actually helped our raw QB succeed by putting adequate resources around him, and creating a QB friendly environment? The answer to that may depend on your biases, I say no and he's doing what he's asked.

 

 

 

 

 

This is really well done.  Thank you for the analysis.  Besides kicking, I really think the coaching/coordinators are holding the team back.  How does yesterday's game and the Philly game compare with the over all numbers?  Neither of those games seemed to have balanced attacks offensively.  The passing game appeared to take precedence.  There doesn't appear to be any rhyme or reason in Daboll's playcalling.  The argument is that Daboll is looking for matchups.  How about our running game versus the 30th ranked running defense?  Where was that?

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Allen has a tough time knowing where to go with the Ball, this leads to him throwing inaccurate passes all over the field.  Sometimes he makes the right read but is just a bit to slow and that causes an in-completion because the D can close on the ball or the WR runs out of space.

 

His deep ball is just plain bad - it's more about touch than arm strength... something he has very little of.

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20 minutes ago, jkeerie said:

This is really well done.  Thank you for the analysis.  Besides kicking, I really think the coaching/coordinators are holding the team back.  How does yesterday's game and the Philly game compare with the over all numbers?  Neither of those games seemed to have balanced attacks offensively.  The passing game appeared to take precedence.  There doesn't appear to be any rhyme or reason in Daboll's playcalling.  The argument is that Daboll is looking for matchups.  How about our running game versus the 30th ranked running defense?  Where was that?

Thank you. I agree 8/13 kicking has cost us.

 

To answer your question; you are largely correct. In the Philly/Cle games we ran 20 times each game and garnered 91 yards, 4.6/carry.

In the other games we averaged 29 atts/134 yds 4.7/carry. In the Phi/Cle games we passed 38 times each game and in the rest 32 times.

So indeed the we skewed heavily pass and gained about the same/carry. And, passing wise the efficiency as measured by passer rating is 76.6 vs PHI/CLE, and 84.5 against the rest. Not a balanced approach In those 2 games, even though the running game appears to be working. It also appears Josh is better when he has the support of the running game.

Edited by D. L. Hot-Flamethrower
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1 minute ago, D. L. Hot-Flamethrower said:

Thank you.

 

To answer your question; you are largely correct. In the Philly/Cle games we ran 20 times each game and garnered 91 yards, 4.6/carry.

In the other games we averaged 29 atts/134 yds 4.7/carry. In the Phi/Cle games we passed 38 times each game and in the rest 32 times.

So indeed the we skewed heavily pass and gained about the same/carry. And, passing wise the efficiency as measured by passer rating is 76.6 vs PHI/CLE, and 84.5 against the rest. Not a balanced approach In those 2 games, even though the running game appears to be working. It also appears Josh is better when he has the support of the running game.

Thank you.  So the eyes didn't lie.  And imagine...a yound QB benefitting from a strong running game.  Sigh. 

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1 hour ago, jrober38 said:


Good god.

 

He had another QB rating under 80 and we scored 16 points. 

 

How low is the bar for what a competent QB and offense should look like?

 

He's 29th in the NFL in QB Rating, has thrown 10 TDs in 9 games and leads one of the worst offenses in the NFL.

 

Our offense is awful because what we're getting from the QB position has been awful. Aside from beating up on garbage teams, he hasn't looked good all season. 

The plan this year was obviously to go heavy passing based on the assumption Allen would come around and be a "big arm" to drive the offense.

 

Then he started looking like Nate in terms of being a turnover machine and they have backed way off the throttle with him.

 

Josh is now very heavily restrained each game because he is not trusted.

 

I actually think McBeane/Daboll may be thinking of moving on from Allen.  I have never thought that before, not even for 1 second.


But after the Cleveland game and that final drive where we strategized for a long FG and OT I realized they have no trust in Josh Allen whatsoever.  NONE.

 

And folks here still think Josh is the savior.

 

LOL.

 

 

28 minutes ago, HeHateMe said:

Allen has a tough time knowing where to go with the Ball, this leads to him throwing inaccurate passes all over the field.  Sometimes he makes the right read but is just a bit to slow and that causes an in-completion because the D can close on the ball or the WR runs out of space.

 

His deep ball is just plain bad - it's more about touch than arm strength... something he has very little of.

Next game start watching every time Josh completes a pass.

 

Ask yourself if the ball was thrown to an open receiver more or less at a standstill prior to the ball being thrown.

 

This was the same "picture" Tyrod needed to throw the football.  

 

Josh doesn't do this on every throw, but he does it on MOST throws.

 

He doesn't play like an NFL QB on many levels, most of which are mental, not physical..

 

 

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58 minutes ago, jrober38 said:

 

THIS!!!!

 

How many QBs take a big step forward after being a starter 2 years?

 

The answer is maybe 2-3 guys over the past 20 years. 

Care to back that up with facts and examples rather than pulling more crap out of your ass?

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1 hour ago, jrober38 said:

 

THIS!!!!

 

How many QBs take a big step forward after being a starter 2 years?

 

The answer is maybe 2-3 guys over the past 20 years. 

Mahommes, Jackson and Watson and thats just in the last few years, not 20.   So your answer is way off.

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6 hours ago, JoshAllenHasBigHands said:

 

You haven't seen it successfully happen. It is clearly what they are trying to do, though.  Are they not good enough to do that? You are probably right.  But that doesn't mean we should misdiagnose what is happening as the team "hasn't found their identity." 

 

Can you point out an example of a play or two where our offense tried to exploit the Browns weakness yesterday?

 

Clowns are #30 in run D.  I'd think that'd be a weakness ripe to go after especially when Singletary ran for 95 yards on 20 carries the week before against the #28 run D.  Instead he gets 8 carries.

 

After yesterday's performance, the Clown run D improved from 30 to 27 btw.   It's easy to improve your run D when you play a team that only  runs the football 14 times on you.

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I see a big difference in our offense when Singletary is on the field and Gore is on the bench.  Overall though, our O is pretty much the same minus the INTs. 
 

In my opinion I think Gore is a waste at this point. His play has dropped a lot the past few weeks, mainly because teams got us figured out when he’s on the field. Add in that he isn’t a threat with the ball in his hands at all.

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22 minutes ago, reddogblitz said:

 

Can you point out an example of a play or two where our offense tried to exploit the Browns weakness yesterday?

 

Clowns are #30 in run D.  I'd think that'd be a weakness ripe to go after especially when Singletary ran for 95 yards on 20 carries the week before against the #28 run D.  Instead he gets 8 carries.

 

After yesterday's performance, the Clown run D improved from 30 to 27 btw.   It's easy to improve your run D when you play a team that only  runs the football 14 times on you.

 

The Browns compensated by putting extra guys in the box, so the play was to pass. Also, and not for nothing, Coaches game plan based on film, not on league rankings. 

 

But think about the eagles game. People couldn't understand why we didn't run. It was the same thing, Eagles put extra men in the box and were excelling at stopping the run. We answered by throwing it through the air. It just didn't work. 

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6 hours ago, Steptide said:

This is the most frustrating thing for me. We're listening to the coaches say week after week how they have to get better and score more points. After last week, I kind of thought they were starting to figure it out using singletary more, but here we are again. I like that the bills wanna be a passing team, I don't want a run first offense, but there has to be a good balance. I'm really curious what the coaches are doing during the week to make the offense better. I have seen almost no difference between week 1 and week 10 when it comes to the offense 

 

 

Teams that are winning in 2019 are no longer (not sure this was ever the case) exclusively pass happy.

 

The teams that scored big wins yesterday ran the ball (Tennessee) and stopped the run (our coaching staff).

 

You need a good balance.  Especially with a young QB who clearly isn't ready nor has the weapons to be throwing 42x vs 11 designed run plays.   

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24 minutes ago, JoshAllenHasBigHands said:

 

The Browns compensated by putting extra guys in the box, so the play was to pass. Also, and not for nothing, Coaches game plan based on film, not on league rankings. 

 

But think about the eagles game. People couldn't understand why we didn't run. It was the same thing, Eagles put extra men in the box and were excelling at stopping the run. We answered by throwing it through the air. It just didn't work. 

 

Maybe you're right.  But I have a hard time believing that an offense is hand cuffed that much by what the defense does.  I can see that to a point.

 

But in the eagles game because the Eagles were stacked against run we had to pass in 40 mile an hour winds?  We were stacking in on them too and they still ran the football and ran it effectively.

 

The Browns are bad against the run.  Putting an extra guy in there isn't going to turn them into a good run defense.  I would have liked to see us at least  try.  As it was Singletary got 42 yards on 8 carries.  5.4 per.  I bet if we'd given it to him another few times he would have broken one.

 

And you still haven't told me of an example in the Clowns game where we took advantage of their weakness.

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6 hours ago, Troll Toll said:

The lack of success on deep passes tells me they don’t practice them enough. Those should be almost automatic when they are open. Watching Rodgers yesterday, he makes it look so easy to just throw a deep ball his guy can make a play on. Seems like Josh is all over the map in his trajectories on those throws. Coaches should be working with him to get the optimal trajectories on each type of deep throw. It’s disconcerting that our guys can’t even get a finger on these throws. They clearly aren’t giving enough attention to this area.

It has been reported that they are practicing deep balls all the time now. It is just not working. 

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Just now, reddogblitz said:

 

Maybe you're right.  But I have a hard time believing that an offense is hand cuffed that much by what the defense does.  I can see that to a point.

 

But in the eagles game because the Eagles were stacked against run we had to pass in 40 mile an hour winds?  We were stacking in on them too and they still ran the football and ran it effectively.

 

The Browns are bad against the run.  Putting an extra guy in there isn't going to turn them into a good run defense.  I would have liked to see us at least  try.  As it was Singletary got 42 yards on 8 carries.  5.4 per.  I bet if we'd given it to him another few times he would have broken one.

 

Maybe. Thing is that when people say this they aren't thinking at all about the defensive alignment, the progression of the game, the plays we way we have set up play action, certain route and run concepts, etc. Maybe Singletary got 5.4 per because he ran the ball against specific alignments, opening up massive holes? And maybe we only got those alignments a few times.  I don't really know the answer, but I know people calling for more runs don't either. 

 

Point is that this team is trying to play match ups. I don't think it is acceptable they haven't started to get better at it, but its what they are doing.  

 

For years I listened to this board complain about having a run first identity; how we were getting left behind the times; etc. Now we pass a ton and play match ups, all the things fans called for for years, and we want to go back to this run-first identity? Its wild to me. 

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4 hours ago, Binghamton Beast said:

No, it hasn't.

 

In fact, the offense has digressed from late last season.

 

I know why but it isn't a popular take so I will keep quiet.

 

 

I'm as big a supporter of this regime and Allen has there is.  To me since last year Allen has passed the eye test AND has shown he can play.  

 

To me it doesn't look like a team with a QB that is Tyrod 2.0 (that is so ridiculous Tyrod was in years 5,6, and 7 on this team) but rather a team that lacks weapons and has a very mediocre OC tasked with developing this kid.  

 

Its not progressing fast enough.  And if we were 1-8 we'd be like the Rams after Goffs first year with the ability to pick any young "bright" OC to come in and pick this up.  

 

But I like what we have but ultimately im beginning to think McD is going to have to look for an OC outside his own comfort zone. 

Edited by Big Blitz
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10 minutes ago, JoshAllenHasBigHands said:

 

Maybe. Thing is that when people say this they aren't thinking at all about the defensive alignment, the progression of the game, the plays we way we have set up play action, certain route and run concepts, etc. Maybe Singletary got 5.4 per because he ran the ball against specific alignments, opening up massive holes? And maybe we only got those alignments a few times.  I don't really know the answer, but I know people calling for more runs don't either. 

 

Point is that this team is trying to play match ups. I don't think it is acceptable they haven't started to get better at it, but its what they are doing.  

 

For years I listened to this board complain about having a run first identity; how we were getting left behind the times; etc. Now we pass a ton and play match ups, all the things fans called for for years, and we want to go back to this run-first identity? Its wild to me. 

 

You didn't hear it from me.

 

I prefer a strategy of what my Dad's friend used to say: "Do what you do do well". 

 

If what you say is true we're being at the mercy of what the other team does. We can only do what they say we can do. 

 

Sure you can avoid going right after the other teams strength.  But this is football.  Sometimes you have to  impose your will on the other team and beat them over the head with it.

 

And you still haven't pointed out an example where we took advantage of a Clowns weakness (or even tried).

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1 minute ago, reddogblitz said:

 

You didn't hear it from me.

 

I prefer a strategy of what my Dad's friend used to say: "Do what you do do well". 

 

If what you say is true we're being at the mercy of what the other team does. We can only do what they say we can do. 

 

Sure you can avoid going right after the other teams strength.  But this is football.  Sometimes you have to  impose your will on the other team and beat them over the head with it.

 

To be honest, I never complained about the approach. But after years of seeing the run-first bills teams fail, I have given up on it. I am happy we are throwing a ton. I don't care if it hurts us in the short term. I want to know if JA can be a franchise QB; and, the only way we will know for sure is if he throws it all over the field. That doesn't really have anything to do with the match ups we are discussing above, but that is where I am coming from. 

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4 hours ago, billsfan714 said:

Mahommes, Jackson and Watson and thats just in the last few years, not 20.   So your answer is way off.

It's impressive that Mahomes will take a big step forward after his second season as a starter.  He's already won an MVP in his first season as a starter and is in the mix to win another in his second season.

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Just now, JoshAllenHasBigHands said:

 

To be honest, I never complained about the approach. But after years of seeing the run-first bills teams fail, I have given up on it. I am happy we are throwing a ton. I don't care if it hurts us in the short term. I want to know if JA can be a franchise QB; and, the only way we will know for sure is if he throws it all over the field. That doesn't really have anything to do with the match ups we are discussing above, but that is where I am coming from. 

 

The run first strategy would have been effective if Rex could have coached defense.

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7 hours ago, beacon said:

No difference to me. Dump OC now. I vote for hurry-up with 4 wide, Singletay lone back and let it rip. Let Allen scramble/run all he wants. Just slide!!!!!!

I agree with this but people used to say that about Losman.  While this staff is certainly conservative, they may also be preventing Allen from single handedly losing games by turning the ball over.

 

its an interesting spot. Develop your qb and see what he has or do what is best for winning. 

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Of course there’s been improvement as the team continues to evolve. Contrary to public opinion, the coaches and players really do ‘have to look at the film’ to best assess where they are in the schemes the team runs. Offensively, this virtually brand new unit has had a grand total of 4.5 hrs of game time together -with most of that being the clock ticking and no playing. Is our KR better than last years #1WR? Is Ford better outside with Feliciano or inside with Nseke at T? Who are our best TE’s from an entirely new group? Currently, the rookies look like rookies but have had some great plays. Lee Smith is having a terrible campaign overall, though he’s in on every short yardage/goal line O and we’re the Leagues best at this. OL continuity has no history of all 5 players blending well in a 1st year together, so why are they expected to here? JB & Beas are fine WR’s, just very small. The team is trying to find the right big body guy to fit with them who’s currently on the roster. Josh has absolutely evolved -some are suggesting too much- as he’s not trying dangerous pass attempts while trying to fit in on an offense with all new players. 

Ditto Defense. Their play is on every teams laptops to learn where we can be hurt. Losing Phillips to season ending injury, Kyle’s retirement and Oliver not delivering early have impacted the DTs and we continue to see many attempts to improve/disguise it. 

The age old adage ‘if ya ain’t improving, yer going backwards’ is a mantra every team embraces, from Pop Warner to the NFL. 

 

I cant help but think all here know this and this thread is just a community whine session cuz we lost a very close game for just the 3rd time in 13 games played since the Offense was created in training camp.

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1 hour ago, Chandler#81 said:

Of course there’s been improvement as the team continues to evolve. Contrary to public opinion, the coaches and players really do ‘have to look at the film’ to best assess where they are in the schemes the team runs. Offensively, this virtually brand new unit has had a grand total of 4.5 hrs of game time together -with most of that being the clock ticking and no playing. Is our KR better than last years #1WR? Is Ford better outside with Feliciano or inside with Nseke at T? Who are our best TE’s from an entirely new group? Currently, the rookies look like rookies but have had some great plays. Lee Smith is having a terrible campaign overall, though he’s in on every short yardage/goal line O and we’re the Leagues best at this. OL continuity has no history of all 5 players blending well in a 1st year together, so why are they expected to here? JB & Beas are fine WR’s, just very small. The team is trying to find the right big body guy to fit with them who’s currently on the roster. Josh has absolutely evolved -some are suggesting too much- as he’s not trying dangerous pass attempts while trying to fit in on an offense with all new players.

 

You say of course there's been improvement but you don't mention where.  Mostly you just made excuses.  Are we scoring more points?  Gaining more yards?  Getting more first downs?

 

The only thing I could point to is Josh hasn't made any ill advised passes into a crowd like he did last year and earlier this year in the last few games.

 

I'm pleased as punch we're 6-3 and hats off to team for that.  However our offense looks as bad as ever.  Unless I'm missing something.  Help out a bills brother and tell me what please.

 

You don't get a pass because players aren't good enough. they are the ones the coaches picked.

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Or maybe, just maybe, these guys aren't that good right now. 

The o line has lots of room for improvement.  Better than last year, but that's not saying much. 

WR needs upgrading, I like Brown and Beasley, but the rest are basically irrelevant.

TE is still a liability, 2 rookies, a no show and a penalty machine.

RB is oddly utilized,  not sure of the strategy here..

QB Allen has mitigated the Ints, but still fumbles way to much.  Also throwing behind and over guys a lot.

Let's see where they are at the end of the season ,would be nice to get over 300 yards once or twice, but not counting on it.

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9 minutes ago, Jigsaw2112 said:

Or maybe, just maybe, these guys aren't that good right now. 

The o line has lots of room for improvement.  Better than last year, but that's not saying much. 

WR needs upgrading, I like Brown and Beasley, but the rest are basically irrelevant.

TE is still a liability, 2 rookies, a no show and a penalty machine.

RB is oddly utilized,  not sure of the strategy here..

QB Allen has mitigated the Ints, but still fumbles way to much.  Also throwing behind and over guys a lot.

Let's see where they are at the end of the season ,would be nice to get over 300 yards once or twice, but not counting on it.

 

3rd year under Coach McDermott and  2nd under Beane and we still don't have good enough players?  Is that in anyway an indictment on Coach McDermott and Beane's  player evaluation?  They inherited a pretty doggone talented roster.

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7 hours ago, Jauronimo said:

Care to back that up with facts and examples rather than pulling more crap out of your ass?

 

Brees, Eli and Stafford are the only first round QBs who struggled their first two seasons who went on to become franchise guys.

 

That's the extent of the list. 

7 hours ago, billsfan714 said:

Mahommes, Jackson and Watson and thats just in the last few years, not 20.   So your answer is way off.

 

I think you misread what I wrote.

 

All of those guys were playing elite football by their 2nd season.

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10 hours ago, beacon said:

No difference to me. Dump OC now. I vote for hurry-up with 4 wide, Singletay lone back and let it rip. Let Allen scramble/run all he wants. Just slide!!!!!!

Amen my brother. Fire Dumboll immediately. Pray Clappy has just enough intelligence left to hire a competent replacement. Purchase a #1 wr in FA. Thank Frank for his service and draft a 2nd rb to back up Devin. Cut Lee Smith and never bring him back. Expect more out of Knox & Sweeney. Keep upgrading the OL.  In case no one has noticed lately Josh Allen is being completely ruined by this coaching staff. And this is an absolute tragedy.....

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