Has the bills offense shown any improvement from week 1 until now?

[whatdrought]

30 minutes ago, jrober38 said:

Good god.

 

He had another QB rating under 80 and we scored 16 points. 

 

How low is the bar for what a competent QB and offense should look like?

 

He's 29th in the NFL in QB Rating, has thrown 10 TDs in 9 games and leads one of the worst offenses in the NFL.

 

Our offense is awful because what we're getting from the QB position has been awful. Aside from beating up on garbage teams, he hasn't looked good all season. 

 

You didn’t address a single one of my points. Proving again, that your anti-Allen narrative is all you can see. Have fun in the echo chamber bud.

[The Real Buffalo Joe]

Honestly, it seems to me the players are getting better, but the play calling is regressing. 

[jrober38]

14 minutes ago, papazoid said:

2nd year qb lamar jackson says hello

 

sound the alarm....josh allen is mediocre at best.....currently ranked 29th & 30th in passer rating and total qbr....not good enough

 

THIS!!!!

 

How many QBs take a big step forward after being a starter 2 years?

 

The answer is maybe 2-3 guys over the past 20 years. 

[jkeerie]

28 minutes ago, D. L. Hot-Flamethrower said:

Good Topic! Warning this is not just a yes they're regressing. Although that could be the answer.

 

I started out by asking the OPs question and trying to answer objectively. I don't have access to anything more than traditional stats. But, that should suffice for purposes of comparing the early part of the season, to the later part.

 

Breaking up into buckets beginning with week 1 and ending with Game 4 NE, this is fair, end of Sept., to the eye appears to be a watershed game for the team, this will be referred to as P1 going forward. And, of course the second bucket-P2, will be game 5 through yesterday-5 games. Everything will of course be per game. Let's see if there are any trends?

 

1. PPG and YPG; P1 19.0 ppg/387ypg, P2 19.6 ppg/297ypg, surprisingly perhaps the Schedule is pretty even in each period. P1 .324%, P2.348, the difference is balanced off by one extra home game in P2, so we can put the SOS to bed for the purposes of this discussion. Production down.

 

2. Where is drop in yardage coming from? P1 Passing 240ypg/ Rushing 147ypg P2 Passing 191 ypg/ Rushing 106ypg, that's a 20% decline in passing yards, and 28% in rushing yards. So both are well down.

 

3. Is this being driven by the number of attempts either way? This is a very interesting to me. P1 Pass Att/Rush Att 37pg/31pg drop of 16%; P2 29pg/26pg drop of 11%. Overall the Bills are running 14% fewer plays! Does that mean our defense is on the field more? The answer is perhaps surprisingly NO, P1 63, P2 60 a drop of 5% give or take. Coincidentally or not, Bills games have dropped from 131 plays to 115 plays. Games time have also shorted to an average of 2:53 from 3:13 in P1. Does it seem to anyone else like we've slowed the pace of our games down? huddle more? running the clock down under 5 secs? It does to me. We need to answer my original efficiency question another way.

 

4. Yards Per Rush P1 5.1 P2 4.2, is this because Josh is running less and worse? Surprisingly no. His attempts/yard/average P1 8/33/4.3 P2 7/29/4.5 pretty similar. I'll save you the suspense and tell you the initials of the biggest drop off, you probably could guess FG.

 

5. How about the passing game? It has actually been much more efficient. Completion % is steady at 60%, But with P1 being 3 TDs/6INT and P2 being 7TDS/ 1 INT ; much of the efficiency gain is here, Yards per attempt is relativitely close 6.5 to 6.3. As are Yards Per Comp. So, Josh was asked after NE to stop playing "hero" ball, cut down on the mistakes and let the rest of the team do its job. He has done that, the team has performed worse.

 

My summary:

It appears like the coaching staff, after NE, has decided to slow the game pace down, and has asked Josh not to make throwing errors. Play to the strength of our defense, which is a story for another day. I know some will scream they are trying to protect Josh, and perhaps to a certain extent they are. But, doing this also protects McD's defense. As to the drop in the running game, The first 4 games was a lot of McKenzie motion, the one game since NE where there was a lot of that was...Washington. Devin Singletary's big running game. I have no answer to the Singletary usage conundrum. IMHO laying the regression at the feet of JA is both simple and incorrect. Others have a lot to answer for. Have they actually helped our raw QB succeed by putting adequate resources around him, and creating a QB friendly environment? The answer to that may depend on your biases, I say no and he's doing what he's asked.

 

 

 

 

 

This is really well done.  Thank you for the analysis.  Besides kicking, I really think the coaching/coordinators are holding the team back.  How does yesterday's game and the Philly game compare with the over all numbers?  Neither of those games seemed to have balanced attacks offensively.  The passing game appeared to take precedence.  There doesn't appear to be any rhyme or reason in Daboll's playcalling.  The argument is that Daboll is looking for matchups.  How about our running game versus the 30th ranked running defense?  Where was that?

[HeHateMe]

Allen has a tough time knowing where to go with the Ball, this leads to him throwing inaccurate passes all over the field.  Sometimes he makes the right read but is just a bit to slow and that causes an in-completion because the D can close on the ball or the WR runs out of space.

 

His deep ball is just plain bad - it's more about touch than arm strength... something he has very little of.

Edited November 11, 2019 by HeHateMe

[D. L. Hot-Flamethrower]

20 minutes ago, jkeerie said:

This is really well done.  Thank you for the analysis.  Besides kicking, I really think the coaching/coordinators are holding the team back.  How does yesterday's game and the Philly game compare with the over all numbers?  Neither of those games seemed to have balanced attacks offensively.  The passing game appeared to take precedence.  There doesn't appear to be any rhyme or reason in Daboll's playcalling.  The argument is that Daboll is looking for matchups.  How about our running game versus the 30th ranked running defense?  Where was that?

Thank you. I agree 8/13 kicking has cost us.

 

To answer your question; you are largely correct. In the Philly/Cle games we ran 20 times each game and garnered 91 yards, 4.6/carry.

In the other games we averaged 29 atts/134 yds 4.7/carry. In the Phi/Cle games we passed 38 times each game and in the rest 32 times.

So indeed the we skewed heavily pass and gained about the same/carry. And, passing wise the efficiency as measured by passer rating is 76.6 vs PHI/CLE, and 84.5 against the rest. Not a balanced approach In those 2 games, even though the running game appears to be working. It also appears Josh is better when he has the support of the running game.

Edited November 11, 2019 by D. L. Hot-Flamethrower

[jkeerie]

1 minute ago, D. L. Hot-Flamethrower said:

Thank you.

 

To answer your question; you are largely correct. In the Philly/Cle games we ran 20 times each game and garnered 91 yards, 4.6/carry.

In the other games we averaged 29 atts/134 yds 4.7/carry. In the Phi/Cle games we passed 38 times each game and in the rest 32 times.

So indeed the we skewed heavily pass and gained about the same/carry. And, passing wise the efficiency as measured by passer rating is 76.6 vs PHI/CLE, and 84.5 against the rest. Not a balanced approach In those 2 games, even though the running game appears to be working. It also appears Josh is better when he has the support of the running game.

Thank you.  So the eyes didn't lie.  And imagine...a yound QB benefitting from a strong running game.  Sigh. 

[Nextmanup]

1 hour ago, jrober38 said:

Good god.

 

He had another QB rating under 80 and we scored 16 points. 

 

How low is the bar for what a competent QB and offense should look like?

 

He's 29th in the NFL in QB Rating, has thrown 10 TDs in 9 games and leads one of the worst offenses in the NFL.

 

Our offense is awful because what we're getting from the QB position has been awful. Aside from beating up on garbage teams, he hasn't looked good all season. 

The plan this year was obviously to go heavy passing based on the assumption Allen would come around and be a "big arm" to drive the offense.

 

Then he started looking like Nate in terms of being a turnover machine and they have backed way off the throttle with him.

 

Josh is now very heavily restrained each game because he is not trusted.

 

I actually think McBeane/Daboll may be thinking of moving on from Allen.  I have never thought that before, not even for 1 second.

But after the Cleveland game and that final drive where we strategized for a long FG and OT I realized they have no trust in Josh Allen whatsoever.  NONE.

 

And folks here still think Josh is the savior.

 

LOL.

 

 

28 minutes ago, HeHateMe said:

Allen has a tough time knowing where to go with the Ball, this leads to him throwing inaccurate passes all over the field.  Sometimes he makes the right read but is just a bit to slow and that causes an in-completion because the D can close on the ball or the WR runs out of space.

 

His deep ball is just plain bad - it's more about touch than arm strength... something he has very little of.

Next game start watching every time Josh completes a pass.

 

Ask yourself if the ball was thrown to an open receiver more or less at a standstill prior to the ball being thrown.

 

This was the same "picture" Tyrod needed to throw the football.  

 

Josh doesn't do this on every throw, but he does it on MOST throws.

 

He doesn't play like an NFL QB on many levels, most of which are mental, not physical..

 

 

[auburnbillsbacker]

So many plays were perfect if Allen throws an accurate pass or our RT blocks. 

[Jauronimo]

58 minutes ago, jrober38 said:

 

THIS!!!!

 

How many QBs take a big step forward after being a starter 2 years?

 

The answer is maybe 2-3 guys over the past 20 years. 

Care to back that up with facts and examples rather than pulling more crap out of your ass?

[Beast]

No, it hasn't.

 

In fact, the offense has digressed from late last season.

 

I know why but it isn't a popular take so I will keep quiet.

[billsfan714]

1 hour ago, jrober38 said:

 

THIS!!!!

 

How many QBs take a big step forward after being a starter 2 years?

 

The answer is maybe 2-3 guys over the past 20 years. 

Mahommes, Jackson and Watson and thats just in the last few years, not 20.   So your answer is way off.

Edited November 11, 2019 by billsfan714

[SCBills]

Valid concern.   They look like the same team as they started the year with, just that the defense isn’t as elite as we thought and Josh Allen is better with his turnovers.  

[HOUSE]

Mitch Morris is hiking the ball faster

[reddogblitz]

6 hours ago, JoshAllenHasBigHands said:

 

You haven't seen it successfully happen. It is clearly what they are trying to do, though.  Are they not good enough to do that? You are probably right.  But that doesn't mean we should misdiagnose what is happening as the team "hasn't found their identity." 

 

Can you point out an example of a play or two where our offense tried to exploit the Browns weakness yesterday?

 

Clowns are #30 in run D.  I'd think that'd be a weakness ripe to go after especially when Singletary ran for 95 yards on 20 carries the week before against the #28 run D.  Instead he gets 8 carries.

 

After yesterday's performance, the Clown run D improved from 30 to 27 btw.   It's easy to improve your run D when you play a team that only  runs the football 14 times on you.

[BananaB]

I see a big difference in our offense when Singletary is on the field and Gore is on the bench.  Overall though, our O is pretty much the same minus the INTs. 
 

In my opinion I think Gore is a waste at this point. His play has dropped a lot the past few weeks, mainly because teams got us figured out when he’s on the field. Add in that he isn’t a threat with the ball in his hands at all.

Edited November 11, 2019 by BananaB

[JoshAllenHasBigHands]

22 minutes ago, reddogblitz said:

 

Can you point out an example of a play or two where our offense tried to exploit the Browns weakness yesterday?

 

Clowns are #30 in run D.  I'd think that'd be a weakness ripe to go after especially when Singletary ran for 95 yards on 20 carries the week before against the #28 run D.  Instead he gets 8 carries.

 

After yesterday's performance, the Clown run D improved from 30 to 27 btw.   It's easy to improve your run D when you play a team that only  runs the football 14 times on you.

 

The Browns compensated by putting extra guys in the box, so the play was to pass. Also, and not for nothing, Coaches game plan based on film, not on league rankings. 

 

But think about the eagles game. People couldn't understand why we didn't run. It was the same thing, Eagles put extra men in the box and were excelling at stopping the run. We answered by throwing it through the air. It just didn't work. 

[Big Blitz]

6 hours ago, Steptide said:

This is the most frustrating thing for me. We're listening to the coaches say week after week how they have to get better and score more points. After last week, I kind of thought they were starting to figure it out using singletary more, but here we are again. I like that the bills wanna be a passing team, I don't want a run first offense, but there has to be a good balance. I'm really curious what the coaches are doing during the week to make the offense better. I have seen almost no difference between week 1 and week 10 when it comes to the offense 

 

 

Teams that are winning in 2019 are no longer (not sure this was ever the case) exclusively pass happy.

 

The teams that scored big wins yesterday ran the ball (Tennessee) and stopped the run (our coaching staff).

 

You need a good balance.  Especially with a young QB who clearly isn't ready nor has the weapons to be throwing 42x vs 11 designed run plays.   

[reddogblitz]

24 minutes ago, JoshAllenHasBigHands said:

 

The Browns compensated by putting extra guys in the box, so the play was to pass. Also, and not for nothing, Coaches game plan based on film, not on league rankings. 

 

But think about the eagles game. People couldn't understand why we didn't run. It was the same thing, Eagles put extra men in the box and were excelling at stopping the run. We answered by throwing it through the air. It just didn't work. 

 

Maybe you're right.  But I have a hard time believing that an offense is hand cuffed that much by what the defense does.  I can see that to a point.

 

But in the eagles game because the Eagles were stacked against run we had to pass in 40 mile an hour winds?  We were stacking in on them too and they still ran the football and ran it effectively.

 

The Browns are bad against the run.  Putting an extra guy in there isn't going to turn them into a good run defense.  I would have liked to see us at least  try.  As it was Singletary got 42 yards on 8 carries.  5.4 per.  I bet if we'd given it to him another few times he would have broken one.

 

And you still haven't told me of an example in the Clowns game where we took advantage of their weakness.

Edited November 11, 2019 by reddogblitz

[dave mcbride]

6 hours ago, Troll Toll said:

The lack of success on deep passes tells me they don’t practice them enough. Those should be almost automatic when they are open. Watching Rodgers yesterday, he makes it look so easy to just throw a deep ball his guy can make a play on. Seems like Josh is all over the map in his trajectories on those throws. Coaches should be working with him to get the optimal trajectories on each type of deep throw. It’s disconcerting that our guys can’t even get a finger on these throws. They clearly aren’t giving enough attention to this area.

It has been reported that they are practicing deep balls all the time now. It is just not working.