Josh Allen 2019 Regular Season at 58.8% Completion Percentage

[Foxx]

@transplantbillsfan

 

i think it reasonable to say... we have found our QB.

Edited November 29, 2019 by Foxx

[thebandit27]

@transplantbillsfan

 

 

Are you convinced yet?

[Bangarang]

9 minutes ago, thebandit27 said:

@transplantbillsfan

 

 

Are you convinced yet?

Well, it’s transplant so he was convinced the moment we drafted him.

[thebandit27]

Just now, Bangarang said:

Well, it’s transplant so he was convinced the moment we drafted him.

 

Some of us, on the other hand, saw what the rest are now seeing back before the draft and weren't fooled by the mass narrative 

[Bangarang]

4 minutes ago, thebandit27 said:

 

Some of us, on the other hand, saw what the rest are now seeing back before the draft and weren't fooled by the mass narrative 

I watched him. Didn’t want him. I was a wrong Josher. I’ve come around though. 

[transplantbillsfan]

23 minutes ago, thebandit27 said:

@transplantbillsfan

 

 

Are you convinced yet?

 

Yes

[Playoffs?]

5 minutes ago, Bangarang said:

I watched him. Didn’t want him. I was a wrong Josher. I’ve come around though. 

Couldn’t help thinking about Josh Rosen on the 4th and 1 that Allen converted like a total beast!!  Zero chance Rosen makes that play. And that’s why we took the right Josh!

 

i was a doubter, but also came around!

[transplantbillsfan]

12 minutes ago, thebandit27 said:

 

Some of us, on the other hand, saw what the rest are now seeing back before the draft and weren't fooled by the mass narrative 

 

Not the moment...

 

Took me at least 24 hours.

[thebandit27]

9 minutes ago, Bangarang said:

I watched him. Didn’t want him. I was a wrong Josher. I’ve come around though. 

 

Like I said at the time: Allen will be a fine case study for folks that believe they know what to look for in a QB.

 

Myself included

[billsfan1959]

15 minutes ago, thebandit27 said:

 

Some of us, on the other hand, saw what the rest are now seeing back before the draft and weren't fooled by the mass narrative 

 

The narrative on Allen just took on a life of its own - and there are people (both fans and media) still clinging to it.

[transplantbillsfan]

1 minute ago, thebandit27 said:

 

Like I said at the time: Allen will be a fine case study for folks that believe they know what to look for in a QB.

 

Myself included

 

It's been a great case study in analytics vs scouting, too

[london_bills]

22 minutes ago, thebandit27 said:

 

Some of us, on the other hand, saw what the rest are now seeing back before the draft and weren't fooled by the mass narrative 

Interesting. I saw it the other way actually.

 

there's a bit of a narrative to 'believe in allen' I think because he does some good things in games, hes a cool guy and comes across well, plays with passion, this regime is tied to him etc. 

 

I don't think theres any mass narrative against him, I hear more of a 'Allen is playing well' narrative from those that don't know about the Bills. 

 

He could be the kind of QB who makes some great plays but is destined to be inconsistent like he has been before the last several weeks. 

 

Yesterday felt different to me. Mainly because he was so consistent in the game and under control. 

 

Some posters are saying they want to see a 300 yd game, 3/4 TD game which is still fair enough to an extent..

 

..but seeing yesterday it just doesn't feel like an issue for me. 

 

 

Edited November 29, 2019 by london_bills

[Kelly the Dog]

4 minutes ago, thebandit27 said:

 

Like I said at the time: Allen will be a fine case study for folks that believe they know what to look for in a QB.

 

Myself included

Agree to some extent. But that said you're likely not going to see many guys in the future with the combination he has of size, arm strength, arm talent, agility, speed, scrambling, running, smarts and attitude. It's a ridiculous skill set. 

[longtimebillsfan]

5 hours ago, Commander Shepard said:

Would be really great if he could bring that up to 65% by the end of the season.  That would be stellar improvement over last year, not that it hasn't already been the case. He'd quiet the draft experts right quick.

He already has.  The stats do not concern me.  Just keep improving and get us to the playoffs!

[syhuang]

 

[The Wiz]

Someone made a comment on one of the shows this morning comparing Allen to Lamar talking about how much more accurate Lamar is (I believe the wording was "nowhere near as accurate as Lamar").  Granted I'm just going by completion % but looking at the number Lamar is 200/299 for 66.9% and Allen is at 225/366 for 61.5%.

 

Based on these numbers the 5.4% difference comes down to 19 completions over his 12 games played.  That's 1.58 catches per game.  Now again I'm just going based on comp % but I don't see how he's "nowhere near" especially if he keeps having games like yesterday.

 

 

[SCBills]

4 minutes ago, The Wiz said:

Someone made a comment on one of the shows this morning comparing Allen to Lamar talking about how much more accurate Lamar is (I believe the wording was "nowhere near as accurate as Lamar").  Granted I'm just going by completion % but looking at the number Lamar is 200/299 for 66.9% and Allen is at 225/366 for 61.5%.

 

Based on these numbers the 5.4% difference comes down to 19 completions over his 12 games played.  That's 1.58 catches per game.  Now again I'm just going based on comp % but I don't see how he's "nowhere near" especially if he keeps having games like yesterday.

 

 

That was Max Kellerman, who also said the Cowboys lost the game and was abruptly schooled by Louis Riddick as to why the Bills won the game and caused Dallas to look bad. 

[GoBills808]

14 minutes ago, london_bills said:

 

 

Some posters are saying they want to see a 300 yd game, 3/4 TD game which is still fair enough to an extent..

 

 

The throw to McKenzie on 2nd and 5 in the third quarter is why this narrative is dumb. Allen puts the ball right on him in stride and he stumbles because he's trying to secure the catch and gets tackled...because he's not as talented as other true wideouts who would turn that into 50+ receiving yards for the QB. For what Allen's been working weapons-wise with his statistics are fine which should have been apparent from the beginning when you look at the offensive side of the ball.

[BuffaloSol]

4 minutes ago, The Wiz said:

Someone made a comment on one of the shows this morning comparing Allen to Lamar talking about how much more accurate Lamar is (I believe the wording was "nowhere near as accurate as Lamar").  Granted I'm just going by completion % but looking at the number Lamar is 200/299 for 66.9% and Allen is at 225/366 for 61.5%.

 

Based on these numbers the 5.4% difference comes down to 19 completions over his 12 games played.  That's 1.58 catches per game.  Now again I'm just going based on comp % but I don't see how he's "nowhere near" especially if he keeps having games like yesterday.

 

 

His original take pre/post draft must have been Lamar truther & Allen hater.

 

He probably doesn't want to trip by back-peddling so fast on Allen.

[The Wiz]

6 minutes ago, GoBills808 said:

The throw to McKenzie on 2nd and 5 in the third quarter is why this narrative is dumb. Allen puts the ball right on him in stride and he stumbles because he's trying to secure the catch and gets tackled...because he's not as talented as other true wideouts who would turn that into 50+ receiving yards for the QB. For what Allen's been working weapons-wise with his statistics are fine which should have been apparent from the beginning when you look at the offensive side of the ball.

Allen also only attempted 4 passes in the 4th quarter because we were in clock kill mode.

[BillsFan692]

I was never a doubter but I wasn't happy with what I was seeing mid-season..... the bills have come a long way in the past 4 weeks we are really firing on all cylinders now. Playing the best football when it matters most thats what winners do, gotta love it!

[The Wiz]

8 minutes ago, SCBills said:

That was Max Kellerman, who also said the Cowboys lost the game and was abruptly schooled by Louis Riddick as to why the Bills won the game and caused Dallas to look bad. 

That was it.  It was a great reply by Riddick.

[london_bills]

9 minutes ago, GoBills808 said:

The throw to McKenzie on 2nd and 5 in the third quarter is why this narrative is dumb. Allen puts the ball right on him in stride and he stumbles because he's trying to secure the catch and gets tackled...because he's not as talented as other true wideouts who would turn that into 50+ receiving yards for the QB. For what Allen's been working weapons-wise with his statistics are fine which should have been apparent from the beginning when you look at the offensive side of the ball.

I take your point about a better recieving core but I don't think that's the whole truth either.

 

Again, a great player makes players around them better. Which I think Allen is doing, yesterday especially. 

 

If he had more throws then some of the runs yesterday then I think he makes the 300 actually. (Dak had 40 odd attempts, Allen 24)

 

And that is just circumstantial as I don't blame the bills for running the clock either. The fact that Allen has not hit 300, 3td is not only because the receiving core is not the best. Daboll has schemed players open that Allen has not hit. 

 

Look at the 3rd down when Allen runs early yesterday. 

 

 

 

 

2 minutes ago, The Wiz said:

Allen also only attempted 4 passes in the 4th quarter because we were in clock kill mode.

Yes

Edited November 29, 2019 by london_bills

[In Summary]

 

6 minutes ago, GoBills808 said:

The throw to McKenzie on 2nd and 5 in the third quarter is why this narrative is dumb. Allen puts the ball right on him in stride and he stumbles because he's trying to secure the catch and gets tackled...because he's not as talented as other true wideouts who would turn that into 50+ receiving yards for the QB. For what Allen's been working weapons-wise with his statistics are fine which should have been apparent from the beginning when you look at the offensive side of the ball.

To this point I wonder what % of passing yards are air yards vs RAC yards for NFL QBs.  QB accuracy enables RAC but so does the receiver's skill. 

Edited November 29, 2019 by In Summary

[The Wiz]

15 minutes ago, In Summary said:

 

To this point I wonder what % of passing yards are air yards vs RAC yards for NFL QBs.  QB accuracy enables RAC but so does the receiver's skill. 

Apparently they only do the top 20 receivers but here they are.

 

https://scores.nbcsports.com/fb/leaders.asp?type=Receiving&range=NFL&rank=231

 

Part of the problem with these stats are RB passes are usually always "RAC yards" and very little air yards but even still based on Ekeler/Rivers numbers the rac is 625 RAC/3046 passing yards.  

 

Ekeler has 667 receiving yards on the year so only 42 of those yards are air yards (assuming I'm mathing right).

Edited November 29, 2019 by The Wiz

[london_bills]

26 minutes ago, syhuang said:

 

And goes to show that you learn from bad games, experiences. Admittedly it's hard to look at the big picture at times like the Pats game. 

Edited November 29, 2019 by london_bills

[transplantbillsfan]

35 minutes ago, london_bills said:

I take your point about a better recieving core but I don't think that's the whole truth either.

 

Again, a great player makes players around them better. Which I think Allen is doing, yesterday especially. 

 

If he had more throws then some of the runs yesterday then I think he makes the 300 actually. (Dak had 40 odd attempts, Allen 24)

 

And that is just circumstantial as I don't blame the bills for running the clock either. The fact that Allen has not hit 300, 3td is not only because the receiving core is not the best. Daboll has schemed players open that Allen has not hit. 

 

Look at the 3rd down when Allen runs early yesterday. 

 

I can't believe you're still desperately trying to squeeze criticism in here.

 

So it's on Allen to make McKenzie's equilibrium better so he doesn't stumble on that play? Seriously?

Edited November 29, 2019 by transplantbillsfan

[london_bills]

9 minutes ago, transplantbillsfan said:

 

I can't believe you're still desperately trying to squeeze criticism in here.

 

So it's on Allen to make McKenzie's equilibrium better so he doesn't stumble on that play? Seriously?

Firstly, What criticism am I putting in there? 

[transplantbillsfan]

2 minutes ago, london_bills said:

Firstly, What criticism am I putting in there? 

 

You're a bit blind to reality in this post below:

 

1 hour ago, london_bills said:

Interesting. I saw it the other way actually.

 

there's a bit of a narrative to 'believe in allen' I think because he does some good things in games, hes a cool guy and comes across well, plays with passion, this regime is tied to him etc. 

 

I don't think theres any mass narrative against him, I hear more of a 'Allen is playing well' narrative from those that don't know about the Bills. 

 

He could be the kind of QB who makes some great plays but is destined to be inconsistent like he has been before the last several weeks. 

 

Yesterday felt different to me. Mainly because he was so consistent in the game and under control. 

 

Some posters are saying they want to see a 300 yd game, 3/4 TD game which is still fair enough to an extent..

 

..but seeing yesterday it just doesn't feel like an issue for me. 

 

 

 

If you don't think there's been a mass narrative against Allen ever since draft season leading up to the 2018 draft, you live in a hole.

 

And the bold is just an outright slap in the face to Allen. I think at this point it's hard to say that Allen hasn't already pretty much proven his doubters wrong.

 

You're going to be the guy who comes out and slams him if he has a really bad game in the middle of 4 other good games. If you think that's the definition of inconsistency for QB play, you're being ridiculous.

 

46 minutes ago, london_bills said:

I take your point about a better recieving core but I don't think that's the whole truth either.

 

Again, a great player makes players around them better. Which I think Allen is doing, yesterday especially. 

 

If he had more throws then some of the runs yesterday then I think he makes the 300 actually. (Dak had 40 odd attempts, Allen 24)

 

And that is just circumstantial as I don't blame the bills for running the clock either. The fact that Allen has not hit 300, 3td is not only because the receiving core is not the best. Daboll has schemed players open that Allen has not hit. 

 

Look at the 3rd down when Allen runs early yesterday. 

 

Also here, if you're really blind to where you're criticism of Allen was.

[london_bills]

3 hours ago, transplantbillsfan said:

 

You're a bit blind to reality in this post below:

 

 

If you don't think there's been a mass narrative against Allen ever since draft season leading up to the 2018 draft, you live in a hole.

 

And the bold is just an outright slap in the face to Allen. I think at this point it's hard to say that Allen hasn't already pretty much proven his doubters wrong.

 

You're going to be the guy who comes out and slams him if he has a really bad game in the middle of 4 other good games. If you think that's the definition of inconsistency for QB play, you're being ridiculous.

 

 

Also here, if you're really blind to where you're criticism of Allen was.

 

Thanks. Its all interesting.

 

I asked you to clarify what you see as criticism so that we could have an even discussion. 

 

 

In relation to the 300 yd/ 3td game some people would like to see at some point -

 

I asked you to clarify what you read as my criticism because you were trying to put words in my mouth with your previous comment:

 

‘So it's on Allen to make McKenzie's equilibrium better so he doesn't stumble on that play? Seriously?’

 

 

I didn’t mention this particular play to McKenzie. 

 

The original poster was suggesting that with a better receiving core, Allen hits 300. Better receivers would help yes but in truth its not JUST about better receivers. 

 

 

My point is that it is not ALL on the receiving core generally. This season receivers have dropped balls, Allen has missed throws, we have run the ball when ahead etc. These all factor in to not having hit this mark

and does NOT factor into his performance last night for me. 

 

 

In relation to critisicing ALLEN - 

 

Yesterdays game was different, Allen was great. I have posted this numerous times in other posts because I believe it. Remember..  this context is missed of course when reading one or two of my posts that are highlighting his negative plays.

The ‘criticism’ of Allen by me (WHICH I WOULD REALLY CALL THE NOT IGNORING OF NEGATIVE PLAYS), all of which I believe is me being HONEST, should not overshadow yesterdays game.

 

 

On me saying Allen has missed some throws, well you can see the difference that has happened in the last three games and especially yesterday when he has been hitting with real consistency! 

 

Allen was very accurate yesterday. The throw to beasley for example was perfect and an inevitable touchdown as such. There WERE times in earlier games when Allen hasn't hit players in stride and people have commented and rightly so, things like 'that inaccuracy can be the difference between at TD and a shorter gain'.

 

As a fan who watches the games you will have seen times when he's been less accurate and we have stalled drives. That's why we are all so impressed with how much better he's got. 

Just because I am not afraid to highlight negative plays, which are becoming the minority, doesn't mean I am 'anti Allen/not believing he's the guy' in general. Not now anyway.

 

 

Some other quick points before I address my comments:

1. I don't believe in the narrative that there 'cannot be any allen criticism in there at all' if it's true. This narrative does exist aswell. I don't see why this cannot be seen as constructive criticism in context of most comments I've made which I believe that Allen was fantastic last night.

2. If people are 100 percent on Allen that's fine I respect that. 

3. I'm not though. but my option HAS virtually swung completely since the Cleveland game. 95/5 or so. Remember we all have different opinions on Allen. Some people are 'that's my quarterback' and are unwavering, others are a bit more 'critical '. Remember also that everyone thinks they are right.

 

 

As regards my comments -

 

He could be the kind of QB who makes some great plays but is destined to be inconsistent like he has been before the last several weeks.

 

This comment is probably the one that could be worded differently and or applies more to Allen BEFORE yesterday for sure. You know what - If I saw a poster that was JUST critical of allen like this after yesterday I would be confused sure, but like i said its in the context of other posts. Allen went along way yesterday to convince me he can shine in a playoff game. It was higher pressure game then he has played.

 

 

As regards my next comment:

 

The fact that Allen has not hit 300, 3td is not only because the receiving core is not the best. Daboll has schemed players open that Allen has not hit.

Look at the 3rd down when Allen runs early yesterday.

 

 

 

Happy with everything I've put here and I think it's objectively right. This type play was plaguing Allen and the bills earlier in the season. It didn’t matter yesterday but still happened early in the game. You mentioned the word reality, it happened in the game. Don’t shoot the messenger!

 

The 3rd down I mention early yesterday when Allen ran. There was a guy open. It's just the truth but should not be highlighted OVER how well he played no. That would be wrong, but ignoring anything that actually happens is the game is wrong. 

 

The impressive thing about Allen yesterday was after the first couple drives stalled, he was amazing.  But hang on fella, we are allowed to mention the first couple of drives and what happened on them! 

 

About your narrative -

 

So.. Is it a 'no criticism of Allen is right'

or

'no criticism of Allen is right after a performance like last night.' thing for you I wonder?

 

The second one I CAN understand. But also remember your narrative and patience with any highlighting of negative plays as you mention a lot of people being against allen. 

 

 

 

 

If the logic of 'your the kind of guy who criticises Allen for having one bad game' stands, remember people want a kicker cut for one bad game. It is always really about there being some doubt there that is magnified by the bad game. Like i say I am not 100 percent on allen but VERY close after yesterday. He is changing my mind. One bad game matters, but Allen's proving people wrong by learning from the bad games. Of course I am going to be honest about what i see moving forward, good or bad!

 

 

 

 

[BigDingus]

Just read an interesting stat. 

The Bills are 11-0 when Josh Allen's completion percentage is 60% or higher. That's it, just 60% and we win. That'll be something to pay attention to going forward for sure.

[Sammy Watkins' Rib]

1 hour ago, BigDingus said:

Just read an interesting stat. 

The Bills are 11-0 when Josh Allen's completion percentage is 60% or higher. That's it, just 60% and we win. That'll be something to pay attention to going forward for sure.

 

Not surprised actually. Going into this season I recall mentioning that Allen only needs to be a 59%-60% completion QB for the Bills to be successful. This is because of how great he is with his legs in key spots.  And I think I even mentioned that if he were to be a 62-65% QB we would be talking about an MVP/HOF level play out of him. And that is looking accurate too. He's at 61.5% now. If he finishes the season around 63 -64% it probably means he had a heck of a finish to the season and we probably beat either Baltimore or New England if not both.

[Fan in Chicago]

If Allen continues his development, yesterday's game will rank as the one that put him on the national stage. If we beat the Ravens, we instantly become favoritwa for a AFC title game if not more. I can't say I have been more excited for a Bills game in the last 15 years as I am for the next one. Too bad I will be on a plane as that game is being played. 

Edited November 30, 2019 by Fan in Chicago

[london_bills]

14 minutes ago, Sammy Watkins' Rib said:

 

Not surprised actually. Going into this season I recall mentioning that Allen only needs to be a 59%-60% completion QB for the Bills to be successful. This is because of how great he is with his legs in key spots.  And I think I even mentioned that if he were to be a 62-65% QB we would be talking about an MVP/HOF level play out of him. And that is looking accurate too. He's at 61.5% now. If he finishes the season around 63 -64% it probably means he had a heck of a finish to the season and we probably beat either Baltimore or New England if not both.

Well then if he plays like he did against dallas , 79 percent then maybe that championship game is not so much of a pipe dream in the future. 

2 minutes ago, Fan in Chicago said:

If Allen continues his development, yesterday's game will rank as the one that put him on the national stage. If we beat the Ravens, we instantly become favoritwa for a AFC title game if not more. I can't say I have been more excited for a Bills game in the last 15 years as I am for the next one. Too bad I will be on a plane as that game is being played. 

You are right about the excitement that Allen brings 

Edited November 30, 2019 by london_bills

[ganesh]

18 hours ago, Bangarang said:

I watched him. Didn’t want him. I was a wrong Josher. I’ve come around though. 

The NFL Draft is a crap shoot. There are no guarantees.  We all want a Franchise QB.  Hope Josh turns out to be one and is in Buffalo for a decade  and wins a couple of championships.

[TH3]

18 hours ago, The Wiz said:

Someone made a comment on one of the shows this morning comparing Allen to Lamar talking about how much more accurate Lamar is (I believe the wording was "nowhere near as accurate as Lamar").  Granted I'm just going by completion % but looking at the number Lamar is 200/299 for 66.9% and Allen is at 225/366 for 61.5%.

 

Based on these numbers the 5.4% difference comes down to 19 completions over his 12 games played.  That's 1.58 catches per game.  Now again I'm just going based on comp % but I don't see how he's "nowhere near" especially if he keeps having games like yesterday.

 

 

Max Kellerman...

[SCBills]

Something I’ve noticed is when you watch other QBs, and see a lot of them throwing dink/dunk passes and check downs.. It boosts your completion percentage but you need to go 2/2 to get a first down.   
 

Allen throws a ton of intermediate passes.  To get the same first down yardage that those other QBs get going 2/2, Allen just needs to go 1/2.   
 

It’s why his completion percentage may only be at 61% for the season, but to the eye, he looks very accurate.  The only thing he really needs to work on to make the next step is his deep ball.  Once he reigns that in, sky’s the limit. 

 

Of course, I’ll take a Dallas game everyday.  He looked absolutely elite in that game and was 19/24, with two of those incompletions being throwaways, and another being an on-the-money back shoulder throw that the defender made a great play on. 

 

[Big Gun]

The difference between 61% and 65% is 4 more incompletions per 100 passes. 

 

The huge deal people make about this is really stupid! Josh is the man and he has "it", i'm glad he is our QB!

[Doc]

20 hours ago, Playoffs? said:

Couldn’t help thinking about Josh Rosen on the 4th and 1 that Allen converted like a total beast!!  Zero chance Rosen makes that play. And that’s why we took the right Josh!

 

i was a doubter, but also came around!

 

No one else period makes that play.  I've never seen that before.

[Kelly the Dog]

2 hours ago, SCBills said:

Something I’ve noticed is when you watch other QBs, and see a lot of them throwing dink/dunk passes and check downs.. It boosts your completion percentage but you need to go 2/2 to get a first down.   
 

Allen throws a ton of intermediate passes.  To get the same first down yardage that those other QBs get going 2/2, Allen just needs to go 1/2.   
 

It’s why his completion percentage may only be at 61% for the season, but to the eye, he looks very accurate.  The only thing he really needs to work on to make the next step is his deep ball.  Once he reigns that in, sky’s the limit. 

 

Of course, I’ll take a Dallas game everyday.  He looked absolutely elite in that game and was 19/24, with two of those incompletions being throwaways, and another being an on-the-money back shoulder throw that the defender made a great play on. 

 

I've said a variation of this 100 times. If Allen threw screens, WR screens, dump offs, check downs, like every other QB his percentage would be much, much higher. He did on Thursday and it was 80%