Josh Allen 2019 Regular Season at 58.8% Completion Percentage

[transplantbillsfan]

And the Dolphins just overtook the Bills for #1 in drop %.

 

Looks like they had a TON of drops the other day.

 

Phins at 5%

Bills at 4.9%

 

For some context, though. Posters seem to believe completion % is completion % and ALL QBs have drops.

 

Bills are currently 2nd worst in drop % and 2nd in total drops. If the Bills were just middle of the pack in the NFL in drops (15 rather than 22), Allen's completion percentage goes up to 60.9%. If we jumped to #5 (12), it jumps to 61.5%. And if our WRs were best in the league but still dropped some and we sat at #1 (4), Allen would have a completion % of 63.3%.

Edited December 17, 2019 by transplantbillsfan
Move the decimal point!!!

[oldmanfan]

15 minutes ago, Wayne Arnold said:

 

A lot of people are comparing Allen to Mark Sanchez with how Sanchez was a young QB drafted in the Top 10 who was part of a good team or two in his first couple seasons in the league despite performing poorly statistically.

Quote one from a reputable source.  I haven't seen one anywhere.

[C.Biscuit97]

1 hour ago, thebandit27 said:

 

Well, 18 months ago you said he was a terrible college QB, so here's to you being massively wrong again!

?

 

Not for nothing, but that happened in the first Miami game.

But Miami sucks. Would love to see it against a good team.  I definitely have seen progress but I would love to see it against a good opponent. We will have our chance mostly in the playoffs.  

[thebandit27]

19 minutes ago, GoBills808 said:

I dunno about that tbh, Van Noy and Collins on the outside can both move fine. Hightower is a plugger but they don’t really ask much more of him. 

 

I'll throw at KVN all day. He couldn't cover my 14 month old with a blanket. 

 

Collins isn't the player he used to be. He can handle his business against most TEs because he's disciplined and still has decent speed. He's not going to man up against Knox.

 

They'll probably try to play zone underneath and keep Josh from killing them with his legs. If he can stay patient in the pocket and hit some early plays to McKenzie and the backs/TEs, they can jump out to an early lead.

[JoshAllenHasBigHands]

8 minutes ago, transplantbillsfan said:

And the Dolphins just overtook the Bills for #1 in drop %.

 

Looks like they had a TON of drops the other day.

 

Phins at 5%

Bills at 4.9%

 

For some context, though. Posters seem to believe completion % is completion % and ALL QBs have drops.

 

Bills are currently 2nd worst in drop % and 2nd in total drops. If the Bills were just middle of the pack in the NFL in drops (15 rather than 22), Allen's completion percentage goes up to 60.9%. If we jumped to #5 (12), it jumps to 61.5%. And if our WRs were best in the league but still dropped some and we sat at #1 (4), Allen would have a completion % of 63.3%.

 

I had no idea the drop rate had such a drastic affect on his over all completion percentage. That is crazy.  

[Chicken Boo]

Consistancy is the problem.  For every 1 great game Josh plays, he'll have 3 stinkers.

 

Fortunately, the defense is good enough to keep games close, giving Josh the opportunity to make important plays down the stretch.  It's worked well thus far.

[GoBills808]

3 minutes ago, thebandit27 said:

 

I'll throw at KVN all day. He couldn't cover my 14 month old with a blanket. 

 

Collins isn't the player he used to be. He can handle his business against most TEs because he's disciplined and still has decent speed. He's not going to man up against Knox.

 

They'll probably try to play zone underneath and keep Josh from killing them with his legs. If he can stay patient in the pocket and hit some early plays to McKenzie and the backs/TEs, they can jump out to an early lead.

I want to see a bunch of Singletary counter/offtackle and then hit them w Gore up middle. The Bengals ate their ***** lunch running the ball, they looked a step late and soft on run D

[Mr. K]

I wonder how long the "Bills drops" video will be at the end of this season.

[GoBills808]

4 minutes ago, JoshAllenHasBigHands said:

 

I had no idea the drop rate had such a drastic affect on his over all completion percentage. That is crazy.  

Combine that w the fact that Bills don’t really throw the ball a ton, 2nd in total drops looks even crazier

[Big Gun]

1 minute ago, Chicken Boo said:

Consistancy is the problem.  For every 1 great game Josh plays, he'll have 3 stinkers.

 

Fortunately, the defense is good enough to keep games close, giving Josh the opportunity to make important plays down the stretch.  It's worked well thus far.

This is just wrong, so you're saying Allen for the year will have 4 good games and 12 stinkers! No way you're wrong!

[JoshAllenHasBigHands]

8 minutes ago, Chicken Boo said:

Consistancy is the problem.  For every 1 great game Josh plays, he'll have 3 stinkers.

 

Fortunately, the defense is good enough to keep games close, giving Josh the opportunity to make important plays down the stretch.  It's worked well thus far.

 

Lol

[Over 29 years of fanhood]

1 hour ago, jrober38 said:

 

Again, he's been able to do these things because our defense allows 15.9 points a game.

 

What would he look like if he played on a team that allowed 24 points per game?

 

Ffs are you trying to say it’s a team sport??? 

 

Nonsense 

[SoTier]

1 hour ago, Buffalo_Stampede said:

I'm not sure why people make excuses for Josh Allen. Allen's problem isn't accuracy, play calling, or players around him. He just processes the game a step behind where we need him to be. With experience hopefully he can process faster and faster.  He is developing. He does some things at a top 10 level. He's already one of the best in the redzone, more so inside the 10. He's learned to limit turnovers. Big test this week vs NE. 

 

One of the comments I heard on tv after last night's game was that what makes Brady and Brees so great is that they have both played in one system so long that they react with the right play almost instantly to any situation they encounter.  They don't have to mentally run through all the plays they could call for that down and distance.  They just have learned over time which call is the most likely to work against in that situation against a defense like their facing.

 

It's like driving a car: after you've been driving for several years, you don't have to think of all the things you have to do like you did when you had your learner's permit.  Allen is like a kid who's just passed his road test but isn't experienced enough to be as good a driver as he could be in a year or two.   Of course, some young drivers never improve much, but most do.  Let's hope Allen gets better.

[Hapless Bills Fan]

15 hours ago, LSHMEAB said:

What's happening this season with regards to the TEAM is that Allen has gotten the job done when he's needed to. He often makes clutch throws in the 4th and plays his best football while the DEFENSE generally gives the offense AMPLE opportunities. So it's working. But let's not pretend like Allen has been great. He's been average overall, but definitely better than last season. That's good. He had a great 3 game stretch that demonstrated he's capable of playing extremely well, albeit against lesser competition.

 

I know this thread is ABOUT JA, but I don't quite get the constant need to demand we believe what our eyes and the stats are telling us. He needs to get better and he's got the tools to do it. The hope is that with a better supporting cast he'll up his game, which is a reasonable assumption. But he makes more headscratching throws than what I would consider to be acceptable. Right now, THIS SEASON, it's fine. I never expected the Bills to be 10-4, so whatever they have going on is working.

 

The Bills are winning for the first time in a LONG time. They're often winning "ugly," but so WHAT? As a fan, it matters very little to me who gets the credit.

 

Part of where I am, and I admit there is subjectivity, is that there doesn't seem to be recognition that Allen is being judged in the context of his tools, without recognition of that context.

 

What I mean is exemplified by assessment of the pass he sailed to Beasley, that was picked.  Was it a throw that rose on him, likely due to poor footwork?  Yes.  Could he make a better throw?  Also Yes.   Does Kittle in SF, or Andrews in Balt, or James Washington,  or 6'5" Collinsworth, make that catch?  Very high probability, Yes.  And then it's a completion, and no one is microanalysing Garappolo or Jackson or Duck or Ken Anderson's mechanics. 

 

As has been pointed out elsewhere, "drops" are a conservative metric where the scorers use pretty restricted criteria on what they call a drop, and even with that, Allen is leading the league and it isn't close.  The Beasley throw would no way be scored as a drop, and yet it is an eminently catchable ball for many TE and WR on many teams.

 

 

[Sammy Watkins' Rib]

Jets fans are throwing out the idea that Allen is Sanchez 2.0

 

Problem is, Allen has more athleticism in his big toe than Sanchez had in total. That difference alone will make Allen a franchise QB whereas Sanchez washed out after a few seasons. 

 

Allen also appears to have far greater intangibles going for him that the Sanchize did not. Jets fans can wish all they want that Allen will be Sanchez 2.0 but it seems highly unlikely. 

 

I don't think Sanchez had a high football IQ either. Scored a 28 on the wonderlic. Allen scored a 37. He's not a dummy. Allen might not ever see the game develop like Brady, Peyton or Brees but he's not going to be Mark Sanchez in that regard.

[jrober38]

49 minutes ago, Wayne Arnold said:

 

A lot of people are comparing Allen to Mark Sanchez with how Sanchez was a young QB drafted in the Top 10 who was part of a good team or two in his first couple seasons in the league despite performing poorly statistically.

 

Allen is better than Sanchez, but I can see the comparisons. 

 

Sanchez, like Allen, benefited greatly from an elite defense backing him up the first few years of his career. 

[D. L. Hot-Flamethrower]

https://www.cbssports.com/nfl/news/grading-nfls-next-generation-of-quarterbacks-lamar-jackson-josh-allen-shine-in-primetime/

 

Pretty good writeup on Josh and the other young QBs. This guy was not a huge supporter of Josh coming out, so don't go down that road. He had a second round grade on him, but much like our own @GunnerBill he is objective enough to realize that the knocks on Josh are going away one by one.

 

J Rober you can have your QB Rating as the be all, end all. There is little context to that number, you may be able to make a somewhat reasonable comparison to Josh's own QBR from last year to this year. However, you can't really compare him for the most part to guys who play in different schemes, with different receivers , different levels of protections, his mobility, his playmaking in key situations etc. without A TON of adjustments.

[jrober38]

2 minutes ago, Sammy Watkins' Rib said:

Jets fans are throwing out the idea that Allen is Sanchez 2.0

 

Problem is, Allen has more athleticism in his big toe than Sanchez had in total. That difference alone will make Allen a franchise QB whereas Sanchez washed out after a few seasons. 

 

Allen also appears to have far greater intangibles going for him that the Sanchize did not. Jets fans can wish all they want that Allen will be Sanchez 2.0 but it seems highly unlikely. 

 

I don't think Sanchez had a high football IQ either. Scored a 28 on the wonderlic. Allen scored a 37. He's not a dummy. Allen might not ever see the game develop like Brady, Peyton or Brees but he's not going to be Mark Sanchez in that regard.

 

Athleticism has next to nothing to do with predicting a quarterback's success. 

 

Brady, Brees, Montana, Manning, etc, none of these guys brought a lot to the table in terms of athleticism. 

[thebandit27]

1 minute ago, jrober38 said:

 

Allen is better than Sanchez, but I can see the comparisons. 

 

Sanchez, like Allen, benefited greatly from an elite defense backing him up the first few years of his career. 

 

So you're saying that Allen is more like Russell Wilson then?

[D. L. Hot-Flamethrower]

1 minute ago, jrober38 said:

 

Allen is better than Sanchez, but I can see the comparisons. 

 

Sanchez, like Allen, benefited greatly from an elite defense backing him up the first few years of his career. 

Do you mind me asking wth does that mean too you?

[thebandit27]

Just now, jrober38 said:

 

Athleticism has next to nothing to do with predicting a quarterback's success. 

 

Brady, Brees, Montana, Manning, etc, none of these guys brought a lot to the table in terms of athleticism. 

 

Now do Watson, Wilson, Mahomes, and Lamar

[billsfan1959]

1 hour ago, jrober38 said:

 

So do I.

 

As I said yesterday though, only someone who completely lacks objectivity would think the defense hasn't overwhelmingly been responsible for our wins. 

 

Our offense and passing game by any metric you can look at is bottom 10 in the NFL.

 

Our defense on the other hand is truly exceptional. Them allowing under 16 points per game is the overwhelming reason we're 10-4 right now.

 

Amazing how you seem to post so much more whenever Allen has a "statistically" bad game...

 

Given your posting history regarding Allen, are you sure you should be lecturing others about objectivity?

 

Cheer up, it could always be worse. Allen could have 29 turnovers like your mancrush, Winston, has....

[D. L. Hot-Flamethrower]

Just now, jrober38 said:

 

Athleticism has next to nothing to do with predicting a quarterback's success. 

 

Brady, Brees, Montana, Manning, etc, none of these guys brought a lot to the table in terms of athleticism. 

This is just plain crazy I'm sorry.

[jrober38]

Just now, thebandit27 said:

 

So you're saying that Allen is more like Russell Wilson then?

 

Not a freaking chance.

 

Russel Wilson has had his QB Rating above 95 seven of the eight seasons he's been in the NFL. 

[Hapless Bills Fan]

1 hour ago, BuffaloHokie13 said:

I'm just spitballing here, but part of me wondered if the last matchup had to do with NE knowing Daboll's tendencies. Letting Josh direct the O in real time could remove that advantage. 

 

I do believe that Belicheck****** (did I miscount) was in Daboll's head, but I'm not sure it was tendencies.  Their D managed to confuse and bemuse Josh.  They batted and tipped balls, they confused him about coverage, they baited him into throwing picks.  That was the first of the games where Daboll tried to win the game with Josh's arm and it went badly (this is where I say Belicheck******(did I miscount) was in Daboll's head). 

 

To his credit, Josh cites that game as a turning point where he realized he had to prepare differently, think about the game differently, and just be better overall.  The first Pats game was the 1st prelim.  Josh performed 2 SD below class average.  He's been studying hard. Now we come to the 2nd prelim and the chance for Josh to show what he's learned.

 

[Pokebball]

2 minutes ago, jrober38 said:

 

Athleticism has next to nothing to do with predicting a quarterback's success. 

 

Brady, Brees, Montana, Manning, etc, none of these guys brought a lot to the table in terms of athleticism. 

Wut?

 

All of them are professional athletes. 

[D. L. Hot-Flamethrower]

There are certain schemes and QB types that will always do better in QB Rating. Can you say Bill Walsh and Joe Montana etc. vs John Elway and his pedestrian QBRs ? You can win with both.

[Pokebball]

45 minutes ago, JoshAllenHasBigHands said:

 

Comparing stats is a losing battle, regardless of which side you are on.  

 

At the end of the day, JA has demonstrated the ability to read defenses and make high difficulty throws. That's the difference between him and EJ, Sanchez, or whoever else you want to point to. JA is making throws those guys couldn't dream of even attempting.  Is he top 10 right now? No. Is he bottom 10? No. 

His 4th quarter drives to win games is pretty damn hard to beat.

[Nextmanup]

1 minute ago, Pokebball said:

Wut?

 

All of them are professional athletes. 

He means relative to this level of play.  

 

You can argue none of the mentioned names were high on athletic talent by NFL standards.

 

As compared to someone like Michael Vick, who has athletic talent off the charts...but who also was a QB I would never want on the Bills.

 

 

[jrober38]

4 minutes ago, D. L. Hot-Flamethrower said:

Do you mind me asking wth does that mean too you?

 

It's not as hard to win in the NFL when you only need to average 17 points a week because your defense is so good.

 

The defense is the reason we're 10-4 right now. #3 in yards and #2 in points. 

 

Anyone who can't admit that isn't watching the games. 

5 minutes ago, thebandit27 said:

 

Now do Watson, Wilson, Mahomes, and Lamar

 

They're all great. They all run circles around Brady, Montana, Brees and Manning, who are the best QBs in NFL history.

 

Now do Josh Freeman, Blaine Gabbert, Tim Tebow, Akili Smith, Vince Young, Jake Locker, EJ Manuel, Mitch Trubisky, Paxton Lynch, Marcus Mariota, Blake Bortles, Robert Griffin, Jamarcus Russel, Jay Cutler, Jason Campbell, JP Losman, Kyle Boller, David Carr, etc, etc, etc. 

[thebandit27]

8 minutes ago, jrober38 said:

 

Not a freaking chance.

 

Russel Wilson has had his QB Rating above 95 seven of the eight seasons he's been in the NFL. 

 

Huh. So my memory of Seattle having the #1 scoring defense for 4 straight seasons is inaccurate?

 

4 minutes ago, jrober38 said:

 

It's not as hard to win in the NFL when you only need to average 17 points a week because your defense is so good.

 

The defense is the reason we're 10-4 right now. #3 in yards and #2 in points. 

 

Anyone who can't admit that isn't watching the games. 

 

Defense has scored zero points. They keep the team in games, but they have won zero games without the offense doing their job.

 

22nd in scoring is below average, not terrible, not bad, and certainly not inept. 

 

Stop trying so hard to make it look worse than it is; it further damages your credibility.

Edited December 17, 2019 by thebandit27

[jrober38]

1 minute ago, thebandit27 said:

 

Huh. So my memory of Seattle Bavin the #1 scoring defense for 4 straight seasons is inaccurate?

 

 

Defense has scored zero points. They keep the team in games, but they have won zero games without the offense doing their job.

 

22nd in scoring is below average, not terrible, not bad, and certainly not inept. 

 

Stop trying so hard to make it look worse than it is; it further damages your credibility.

 

I'm not trying to make anything look worse.

 

Our offense isn't good.

 

Our defense is elite.

 

You guys seem to be arguing the opposite. 

 

If you want to argue Josh Allen is on the same level as Russell Wilson, I don't know what to say because that's complete insanity. 

Edited December 17, 2019 by jrober38

[D. L. Hot-Flamethrower]

1 minute ago, jrober38 said:

 

It's not as hard to win in the NFL when you only need to average 17 points a week because your defense is so good.

 

The defense is the reason we're 10-4 right now. #3 in yards and #2 in points. 

 

Anyone who can't admit that isn't watching the games. 

So essentially what you're saying is that if you have a good defense the QB gets little to no credit if his QB rating (which is largely context dependent) isn't high enough.

Just now, jrober38 said:

 

I'm not trying to make anything look worse.

 

Our offense isn't good.

 

Our defense is elite.

 

You guys seem to be arguing the opposite. 

Now I know what you're doing. 

[Pokebball]

4 minutes ago, Nextmanup said:

He means relative to this level of play.  

 

You can argue none of the mentioned names were high on athletic talent by NFL standards.

 

As compared to someone like Michael Vick, who has athletic talent off the charts...but who also was a QB I would never want on the Bills.

 

 

I was comparing their athleticism to mine.   Sorry  

 

Really, they are all professional athletes.  One throws better, one runs better, one is stronger, one is faster.  Some of these discussions get kinda wonky at times.

[jrober38]

1 minute ago, D. L. Hot-Flamethrower said:

So essentially what you're saying is that if you have a good defense the QB gets little to no credit if his QB rating (which is largely context dependent) isn't high enough.

 

No, I'm saying if you have a great defense and a QB who is bottom 10 in practically every passing category, they deserve little credit.

 

I think Josh is a bottom 10 QB in the NFL right now. If that continues for another year or two we should be looking for someone new. Hopefully he improves and ranks in the top half of the league next year. 

 

Where do you think he should rank? Top half? Top 10?

Edited December 17, 2019 by jrober38

[Alphadawg7]

38 minutes ago, C.Biscuit97 said:

But Miami sucks. Would love to see it against a good team.  I definitely have seen progress but I would love to see it against a good opponent. We will have our chance mostly in the playoffs.  

 

People forget that Balt and Pitt have excellent defenses, Pats too and lots of very good QBs had subpar or bad games against those defenses this year.  Its easy to say I want to see him do it against "good" teams because of that, but its also unfair to expect him to have good games against top 5 defenses, especially with the mediocre cabinet of weapons we have.  I mean our top 3 WR's average out to 5'10" and 180 pounds right now.  

 

Add in, this team is young, we have 9 new players on offense, and our QB has just a season and half worth of starts in the NFL, and its not a shock we aren't having an offensive explosion against elite defenses.  Especially when better offenses have struggled against them too.  

 

The key for me...is that through the struggles, our team keeps pressing forward and ups their play in the 4th quarter to keep battling.  We should have won the NE game, and probably do if not for Josh getting hurt (even though we really lost that game squarely on ST) and we took the best team in the NFL down to the final play despite the fact our OL was a revolving door against the Ravens.  

 

What I have seen from this team...is an offense that is good enough to win against anyone in the NFL right now...and thats because our defense will help keep the games close and our offense and Allen especially are strong down the stretch in crunch time.  

 

End of the day...this season isnt about THIS season.  This season was and is all about taking a big step forward, which we clearly have and are.  If we go one and done in the playoffs, doesnt matter (although for the record I believe we will win in the playoffs and at least make the AFCC game).  This season is already a big success, one offseason was not going to "finish" our build.  

 

This team is setup for long term sustainable success from a youth standpoint, cap standpoint, coaching and GM standpoint, and IMO QB standpoint.  Now on the back of this season (wherever we finish), Beane can focus on rounding out the weaker spots on this roster, and clearly that is going include offensive weapons at the top of the list to help us take another offensive growth step next year.  

[D. L. Hot-Flamethrower]

Just now, jrober38 said:

 

No, I'm saying if you have a great defense and a QB who is bottom 10 in practically every passing category, they deserve little credit.

 

I think Josh is a bottom 10 QB in the NFL right now. 

 

Where do you think he should rank? Top half? Top 10?

Well there is a ranking system (ELO) that attempts to put a bit of context to it and he's been generally in the 11-16 range. You have stated that you think he's in the 26-30 or bottom tier. I find that absurd.

[thebandit27]

Just now, jrober38 said:

 

I'm not trying to make anything look worse.

 

Our offense isn't good.

 

Our defense is elite.

 

You guys seem to be arguing the opposite. 

 

Ok now you're making things up. Nobody said the opposite in any way, shape, or form. That's an outright lie.

 

You use adjectives like "severely limited" and statements like "last in every metric" when it's utterly untrue. There's no reason to get upset when folks point that out.

 

The fact of the matter is that the defense is great, but it's factually incorrect to credit them with any wins when they've scored zero points. Not a difficult concept.

 

NE's defense has scored 5 touchdowns. They've scored another 3 on blocked punts. THAT'S winning games in spite of the offense.

[Pokebball]

4 minutes ago, jrober38 said:

 

No, I'm saying if you have a great defense and a QB who is bottom 10 in practically every passing category, they deserve little credit.

 

I think Josh is a bottom 10 QB in the NFL right now. If that continues for another year or two we should be looking for someone new. Hopefully he improves and ranks in the top half of the league next year. 

 

Where do you think he should rank? Top half? Top 10?

If you lined up all of the starting QBs on the playground and did a pick 'em, I think Josh wold go before 20th.

[jrober38]

10 minutes ago, D. L. Hot-Flamethrower said:

Well there is a ranking system (ELO) that attempts to put a bit of context to it and he's been generally in the 11-16 range. You have stated that you think he's in the 26-30 or bottom tier. I find that absurd.

 

ELO is for teams isn't it?

 

He's 28th in DYAR, 28th in DVAO, and 28th in QBR. 

Edited December 17, 2019 by jrober38