McBeane and draft timing

[Dkollidas]

I understand that Beane was not here for the first draft. That being said, I assume since he was hired only weeks later and McDermott basically ran the draft, that they at least spoke on a basic level of which players they liked. I could also see them not having had the time (Beane being in Carolina, who had Newton), and McDermott only just being hired a couple months earlier, to really trust themselves selecting a QB in 2017.

 

Therefore, McDermott did the prudent thing, moved down, got more picks, took a solid player at a position that was viewed strongly (Lattimore and Jamal Adams also taken along with Tre White that year), and stockpiled for what was expected to be a very talented 2018 QB class.

 

When the 2018 draft comes along, after an off-season if clearing out old players and bringing in new, two of the clearest positional needs for Buffalo are QB, and LB. Again, this draft was very strong at those two positions and they were able to get good prospects early to fill key positions.

 

This off-season Beane and McDermott (strategically, in my opinion) went through the off-season, got depth at DB, addressed glaring weaknesses at OL and WR, and filled depth at RB. 

 

The one glaring hole was at DT with the retirement of Kyle Williams. Not coincidentally... this year’s draft was regarded as one of the strongest defensive line (specifically on the interior) drafts to have come along in years.

 

Looking to next season and our needs, I could see our main needs being a defensive end (Murphy is an injury question, Hughes is old, Shaq could be gone and Darryl Johnson is nice, but he’s a project) and Wide Receiver.

 

Funny thing is, if you look around at where next year’s draft is strongest... Wide Receiver and Edge rusher. 

 

I don’t think this is all a coincidence. I think Beane is trying to line up his needs with what the draft is strong in. If he knows has a top-15 Pick, and he has a clear need at say, receiver, and there’s 6-7 projected first round receivers, he can likely go after other needs in free agency, and use picks to move up if necessary to grab one of those guys that he likes. 

 

I honestly think that this is a real strategy, and I think it’s turning out to be a great strategy.

[Dr. Who]

He's not expecting a top-15 pick, but the rest is plausible.

[LSHMEAB]

7 minutes ago, Dkollidas said:

 

 If he knows has a top-15 Pick

I appreciate the thought you put into your post, but if he as a top 15 pick, it sort of nullifies the rest of the narrative. At what point does he want to win? Just sayin.

[Don Otreply]

I suspect any good GM is looking at the draft two and three years out or more for planing purposes. On top of constantly surveying what’s going on throughout the league.

 

Go Bills!!!

[co_springs_billsfan]

1 minute ago, Don Otreply said:

I suspect any good GM is looking at the draft two and three years out or more for planing purposes. On top of constantly surveying what’s going on throughout the league.

 

Go Bills!!!

How far ahead does Adam Gase look?

[Warcodered]

6 minutes ago, co_springs_billsfan said:

How far ahead does Adam Gase look?

Adam Gase is perpetually staring at the end of time and space.

[Doc Brown]

Chiefs:  Hey, it's Andy Reid.  I want to give up a 1st rounder to trade up for a project QB despite a strong class next year and having a current QB who just made the pro bowl.

 

Bills:  Sounds great.

Edited August 29, 2019 by Doc Brown

[John from Riverside]

21 minutes ago, Dkollidas said:

I understand that Beane was not here for the first draft. That being said, I assume since he was hired only weeks later and McDermott basically ran the draft, that they at least spoke on a basic level of which players they liked. I could also see them not having had the time (Beane being in Carolina, who had Newton), and McDermott only just being hired a couple months earlier, to really trust themselves selecting a QB in 2017.

 

Therefore, McDermott did the prudent thing, moved down, got more picks, took a solid player at a position that was viewed strongly (Lattimore and Jamal Adams also taken along with Tre White that year), and stockpiled for what was expected to be a very talented 2018 QB class.

 

When the 2018 draft comes along, after an off-season if clearing out old players and bringing in new, two of the clearest positional needs for Buffalo are QB, and LB. Again, this draft was very strong at those two positions and they were able to get good prospects early to fill key positions.

 

This off-season Beane and McDermott (strategically, in my opinion) went through the off-season, got depth at DB, addressed glaring weaknesses at OL and WR, and filled depth at RB. 

 

The one glaring hole was at DT with the retirement of Kyle Williams. Not coincidentally... this year’s draft was regarded as one of the strongest defensive line (specifically on the interior) drafts to have come along in years.

 

Looking to next season and our needs, I could see our main needs being a defensive end (Murphy is an injury question, Hughes is old, Shaq could be gone and Darryl Johnson is nice, but he’s a project) and Wide Receiver.

 

Funny thing is, if you look around at where next year’s draft is strongest... Wide Receiver and Edge rusher. 

 

I don’t think this is all a coincidence. I think Beane is trying to line up his needs with what the draft is strong in. If he knows has a top-15 Pick, and he has a clear need at say, receiver, and there’s 6-7 projected first round receivers, he can likely go after other needs in free agency, and use picks to move up if necessary to grab one of those guys that he likes. 

 

I honestly think that this is a real strategy, and I think it’s turning out to be a great strategy.

I have been saying this for a while.....

 

It looks to me like Beane puts emphasis in his top picks in areas that are supposed to be "strengths" of that particular draft

 

Josh Allen - In a supposid QB draft

Olvier - in a supposid DL draft

Next year is supposed to be a "receiver" draft

 

It should be noted however....that Beane is not just doing well with his first picks...he HAS KILLED the last two drafts going all the way into the 7th rounds

[TigerJ]

Common picks for the Bills among the early mock drafts are Chase Young and A. J. Epenesa - highly regarded defensive ends, and Jerry Jeudy and Laviska Shenault WRs.  Unfortunately, those early mocks mostly have Buffalo picking in the top 5 to  top 12 in the draft.  If the plans of the Bills and hopes of the fans pan out, the Bills will be picking a lot later than that.  

 

If the Bills pick a bit later in the first round, Yetur Gross-Mattos is a nice looking edge rusher out of Penn State, Tee Higgins is a tall receiver with some speed out of Clemson.  Still later, the Bills could get Terrell Lewis, edge rusher from Alabama or CeeDee Lamb, a receiver from Oklahoma.  Other first round edge rushers might be Kenny Willekes or Anfernee Jennings.  There is also an additional handful of receivers who could go late in the first.

[Augie]

I’m confident we can get a steal at #32. 

[Thurman#1]

1 hour ago, Dkollidas said:

I understand that Beane was not here for the first draft. That being said, I assume since he was hired only weeks later and McDermott basically ran the draft, that they at least spoke on a basic level of which players they liked. I could also see them not having had the time (Beane being in Carolina, who had Newton), and McDermott only just being hired a couple months earlier, to really trust themselves selecting a QB in 2017.

 

Therefore, McDermott did the prudent thing, moved down, got more picks, took a solid player at a position that was viewed strongly (Lattimore and Jamal Adams also taken along with Tre White that year), and stockpiled for what was expected to be a very talented 2018 QB class.

 

When the 2018 draft comes along, after an off-season if clearing out old players and bringing in new, two of the clearest positional needs for Buffalo are QB, and LB. Again, this draft was very strong at those two positions and they were able to get good prospects early to fill key positions.

 

This off-season Beane and McDermott (strategically, in my opinion) went through the off-season, got depth at DB, addressed glaring weaknesses at OL and WR, and filled depth at RB. 

 

The one glaring hole was at DT with the retirement of Kyle Williams. Not coincidentally... this year’s draft was regarded as one of the strongest defensive line (specifically on the interior) drafts to have come along in years.

 

Looking to next season and our needs, I could see our main needs being a defensive end (Murphy is an injury question, Hughes is old, Shaq could be gone and Darryl Johnson is nice, but he’s a project) and Wide Receiver.

 

Funny thing is, if you look around at where next year’s draft is strongest... Wide Receiver and Edge rusher. 

 

I don’t think this is all a coincidence. I think Beane is trying to line up his needs with what the draft is strong in. If he knows has a top-15 Pick, and he has a clear need at say, receiver, and there’s 6-7 projected first round receivers, he can likely go after other needs in free agency, and use picks to move up if necessary to grab one of those guys that he likes. 

 

I honestly think that this is a real strategy, and I think it’s turning out to be a great strategy.

 

 

 

Agreed that McDermott didn't trust himself (or Whaley) to pick a QB and did the prudent thing to wait and bring in draft capital for the next year.

 

Disagree that picking Tre had anything to do with how strong or weak the CB class was that year. I think they had him as their highest-ranked player when they picked and that's all there was to it. If Tre had been picked earlier, I think they'd have gone highest ranked regardless of position. Same with picking up Edmunds from a good LB class ... I don't think they were concerned about the class, they were just surprised to find Edmunds still available at that point.

 

I just feel you're overthinking this. I think it's more about picking the best guy left when they pick. And yeah, need and positional value count as to how high you want to rate a guy on your board. It affects things a bit. Overall, though, (except for Josh Allen ... they obviously needed and were absolutely determined to get in on that QB class) it fits just as easily with the more obvious strategy that they've acknowledged of picking the best player.

 

Don't get me wrong, I love Beane. I think he's really smart. But I do think the trend you're noticing is mostly coincidence. Guess we'll find out when he writes his autobiography.

[LeGOATski]

I think we finally have a front office that evaluates players well, which makes drafting the BPA an effective policy.

[formerlyofCtown]

5 hours ago, Dkollidas said:

I understand that Beane was not here for the first draft. That being said, I assume since he was hired only weeks later and McDermott basically ran the draft, that they at least spoke on a basic level of which players they liked. I could also see them not having had the time (Beane being in Carolina, who had Newton), and McDermott only just being hired a couple months earlier, to really trust themselves selecting a QB in 2017.

 

Therefore, McDermott did the prudent thing, moved down, got more picks, took a solid player at a position that was viewed strongly (Lattimore and Jamal Adams also taken along with Tre White that year), and stockpiled for what was expected to be a very talented 2018 QB class.

 

When the 2018 draft comes along, after an off-season if clearing out old players and bringing in new, two of the clearest positional needs for Buffalo are QB, and LB. Again, this draft was very strong at those two positions and they were able to get good prospects early to fill key positions.

 

This off-season Beane and McDermott (strategically, in my opinion) went through the off-season, got depth at DB, addressed glaring weaknesses at OL and WR, and filled depth at RB. 

 

The one glaring hole was at DT with the retirement of Kyle Williams. Not coincidentally... this year’s draft was regarded as one of the strongest defensive line (specifically on the interior) drafts to have come along in years.

 

Looking to next season and our needs, I could see our main needs being a defensive end (Murphy is an injury question, Hughes is old, Shaq could be gone and Darryl Johnson is nice, but he’s a project) and Wide Receiver.

 

Funny thing is, if you look around at where next year’s draft is strongest... Wide Receiver and Edge rusher. 

 

I don’t think this is all a coincidence. I think Beane is trying to line up his needs with what the draft is strong in. If he knows has a top-15 Pick, and he has a clear need at say, receiver, and there’s 6-7 projected first round receivers, he can likely go after other needs in free agency, and use picks to move up if necessary to grab one of those guys that he likes. 

 

I honestly think that this is a real strategy, and I think it’s turning out to be a great strategy.

They worked together in Carolina for years and likely already knew they had the same view of players.  They may have even already talked about working together in the roles they are in now. 

[ProcessTruster]

they said it would be a multi-year process.  and they are executing against it.  this is not the year.  but it is coming. 

 

trust it

[Element115]

5 hours ago, Thurman#1 said:

Agreed that McDermott didn't trust himself (or Whaley) to pick a QB and did the prudent thing to wait and bring in draft capital for the next year.

 

Not picking Mahomes *could* go down as one of the biggest draft blunders for the Bills.

[SoTier]

8 hours ago, Don Otreply said:

I suspect any good GM is looking at the draft two and three years out or more for planing purposes. On top of constantly surveying what’s going on throughout the league.

 

Go Bills!!!

 

GMs have much more important things to do than worry college players who are two or three years from being eligible for the NFL draft.  Too many first or second year collegiate players -- like so many NFL rookies -- who look great early on and then flame out.  

[H2o]

Drafting is good, and I hope they continue to do an excellent job as they have up until now, but I think we may be a bit active in the FA market for DE in 2020. I know they will do an extensive scouting of the position. Guys like Clowney, Yannick Ngakoue, Emmanuel Ogbah, and Dante Fowler could all be out there. I'd LOVE to land Ngakoue for this defense if at all possible. 

[teef]

1 hour ago, Element115 said:

 

Not picking Mahomes *could* go down as one of the biggest draft blunders for the Bills.

i'm over it.

[Chandler#81]

1 hour ago, Element115 said:

 

Not picking Mahomes *could* go down as one of the biggest draft blunders for the Bills.

No, it really won’t. Only those who revel in 20/20 hindsight misery will even consider a 12th pick traded that lands an outstanding cornerback. Give it a rest, sunshine. 

[Don Otreply]

46 minutes ago, SoTier said:

 

GMs have much more important things to do than worry college players who are two or three years from being eligible for the NFL draft.  Too many first or second year collegiate players -- like so many NFL rookies -- who look great early on and then flame out.  

I believe that good GMs keep an eye on this more than you think, again for planning purposes, a GM would be delinquent in his duties if it was not tracked appropriately, again, on top of constant surveillance of league player opportunities,

 

GMs do have staffs to track these things, and keep them informed throughout each  year. They do indeed keep track of the 5 star recruits, and to which colleges they are attending. It’s part and parcel of what they do.

 

Go Bills!!!

Edited August 29, 2019 by Don Otreply

[Taro T]

8 hours ago, TigerJ said:

Common picks for the Bills among the early mock drafts are Chase Young and A. J. Epenesa - highly regarded defensive ends, and Jerry Jeudy and Laviska Shenault WRs.  Unfortunately, those early mocks mostly have Buffalo picking in the top 5 to  top 12 in the draft.  If the plans of the Bills and hopes of the fans pan out, the Bills will be picking a lot later than that.  

 

If the Bills pick a bit later in the first round, Yetur Gross-Mattos is a nice looking edge rusher out of Penn State, Tee Higgins is a tall receiver with some speed out of Clemson.  Still later, the Bills could get Terrell Lewis, edge rusher from Alabama or CeeDee Lamb, a receiver from Oklahoma.  Other first round edge rushers might be Kenny Willekes or Anfernee Jennings.  There is also an additional handful of receivers who could go late in the first.

 

Good post.

 

Just personally would be very wary of selecting a Penn State edge rusher after the way Jauron's Folly worked out.

[Don Otreply]

9 hours ago, co_springs_billsfan said:

How far ahead does Adam Gase look?

To his navel...

[BarleyNY]

2 hours ago, Element115 said:

 

Not picking Mahomes *could* go down as one of the biggest draft blunders for the Bills.

 

So far, so good on that one

[Element115]

Just now, BarleyNY said:

 

So far, so good on that one

 

I need an explanation.  What we know about Allen to this point, "so far so good" is simply not the case. Is this a faith based determination?

[DaBillsFanSince1973]

2 hours ago, Element115 said:

 

Not picking Mahomes *could* go down as one of the biggest draft blunders for the Bills.

 

1 minute ago, Element115 said:

 

I need an explanation.  What we know about Allen to this point, "so far so good" is simply not the case. Is this a faith based determination?

what is this faith you speak of? do you deserve an explanation? the biggest blunder was unfortunately the day you joined this board. you do noting but incite here. sure you do it in your little intellectual way but it's inciting none the less.

 

 

56 minutes ago, Chandler#81 said:

No, it really won’t. Only those who revel in 20/20 hindsight misery will even consider a 12th pick traded that lands an outstanding cornerback. Give it a rest, sunshine. 

thank you.

[Mountain Man]

9 hours ago, Dkollidas said:

I assume since he was hired only weeks later and McDermott basically ran the draft, that they at least spoke on a basic level of which players they liked

An absolutely ridiculous assumption which would have seen the Bills penalised massively by the league if true 

[Element115]

2 minutes ago, DaBillsFanSince1973 said:

 

what is this faith you speak of? do you deserve an explanation? the biggest blunder was unfortunately the day you joined this board. you do noting but incite here. sure you do it in your little intellectual way but it's inciting none the less.

 

Mahomes was the NFL MVP in his second year, and he barely played in his rookie season.  I'm wondering how "so far so good" can be applied to a QB who had a poor TD:INT ratio and a 52% completion percentage. It has to be faith that Allen will be good, because there is not yet enough data to suggest Allen is comparable to Mahomes, on any level.

[H2o]

5 minutes ago, Element115 said:

 

Mahomes was the NFL MVP in his second year, and he barely played in his rookie season.  I'm wondering how "so far so good" can be applied to a QB who had a poor TD:INT ratio and a 52% completion percentage. It has to be faith that Allen will be good, because there is not yet enough data to suggest Allen is comparable to Mahomes, on any level.

Ahhhh, the good ole thread hijacking. I suggest you go join Jeffismagic/Zero(whatever) over on the Chiefs' message board. 

[RochesterRob]

  I think that most GM's try to look ahead but life gets in the way.  Players hit a wall physically before they are expected to.  A free agent signee does not adapt or work out.  A guy that a GM was hoping to re-sign at reasonable money gets insane money from a desperate team and he is gone.  This has been as much a problem for the Bills the past 20 years as anything else.  It's like saying You're going to marry a hot girl when you are 18.  But then you go to college and forced to admit that you are not as capable academically as you were in high school.  You looking like a mix between your mom and dad in high school made you cute because the girls liked your mom and dad but now at college you're considered homely.  Once you honestly take stock of your intellectual and physical gifts you then wisely consider the invitation for lunch from the girl that might be 15 pounds overweight and not look good in tight pants but most likely lands a job that is better than what you are in line for.  Such is life for the draft and FA periods for many GM's.

Edited August 29, 2019 by RochesterRob

[Element115]

1 minute ago, H2o said:

Ahhhh, the good ole thread hijacking. I suggest you go join Jeffismagic/Zero(whatever) over on the Chiefs' message board. 

 

I thought this thread was about how good a job MeDermott did at drafting before Beane arrived?  How is discussing the elephant in the room hijacking the thread?  

[fansince88]

9 hours ago, Augie said:

I’m confident we can get a steal at #32. 

Does 19-0 let you have a pick in round 1?

[H2o]

Just now, Element115 said:

 

I thought this thread was about how good a job MeDermott did at drafting before Beane arrived?  How is discussing the elephant in the room hijacking the thread?  

It's talking about the team needs and the strength of each draft for that year. There is no elephant in the room. Only an element in the room.

 

[DaBillsFanSince1973]

1 minute ago, Element115 said:

Mahomes was the NFL MVP in his second year, and he barely played in his rookie season.  I'm wondering how "so far so good" can be applied to a QB who had a poor TD:INT ratio and a 52% completion percentage. It has to be faith that Allen will be good, because there is not yet enough data to suggest Allen is comparable to Mahomes, on any level.

all you have done in your short tenure here is put down the bills and prop up other teams and their players and coaches. not a good look for a supposed bills fan but a sure sign of an inciting troll, such as you are.

 

 

 

 

[Captain Hindsight]

Don't have time to look for the interview, but Beane said something about looking at future draft classes when considering FAs and draft picks. 

 

Its so nice to see an actual plan for this team. Whaley could recognize talent, but his roster building skills left a lot to be desired. Every move was "this year" With McBeane its always "this year and next year". Its so refreshing 

7 minutes ago, RochesterRob said:

  I think that most GM's try to look ahead but life gets in the way.  Players hit a wall physically before they are expected to.  A free agent signee does not adapt or work out.  A guy that a GM was hoping to re-sign at reasonable money gets insane money from a desperate team and he is gone.  This has been as much a problem for the Bills the past 20 years as anything else.  It's like saying You're going to marry a hot girl when you are 18.  But then you go to college and forced to admit that you are not as capable academically as you were in high school.  You looking like a mix between your mom and dad in high school made you cute because the girls liked your mom and dad but now at college you're considered homely.  Once you honestly take stock of your intellectual and physical gifts you then wisely consider the invitation for lunch from the girl that might be 15 pounds overweight and not look good in tight pants but most likely lands a job that is better than what you are in line for.  Such is life for the draft and FA periods for many GM's.

You need a hug bud?

[RochesterRob]

2 minutes ago, Captain Hindsight said:

Don't have time to look for the interview, but Beane said something about looking at future draft classes when considering FAs and draft picks. 

 

Its so nice to see an actual plan for this team. Whaley could recognize talent, but his roster building skills left a lot to be desired. Every move was "this year" With McBeane its always "this year and next year". Its so refreshing 

You need a hug bud?

  Not talking about me.  Just trying to find an analogy that most people here can understand.  

[Element115]

3 minutes ago, DaBillsFanSince1973 said:

all you have done in your short tenure here is put down the bills and prop up other teams and their players and coaches. not a good look for a supposed bills fan but a sure sign of an inciting troll, such as you are.

 

 

 

 

 

I'm questioning how fans can have a discussion about their teams' past drafts and not look at them objectively.  Talent evaluation/team needs has been a problem with this franchise for a very long time.  QB's win SB's not DB's.  

[BarleyNY]

37 minutes ago, Element115 said:

 

I need an explanation.  What we know about Allen to this point, "so far so good" is simply not the case. Is this a faith based determination?

 

No. It was me saying so far, so good on it being one of the Bills’ biggest draft blunders. Mahomes has been ridiculously good.  And it wasn’t like we didn’t need a QB when we did it. 

[Element115]

1 minute ago, BarleyNY said:

 

No. It was me saying so far, so good on it being one of the Bills’ biggest draft blunders. Mahomes has been ridiculously good.  And it wasn’t like we didn’t need a QB when we did it. 

 

Thanks for the explanation.

[oldmanfan]

11 minutes ago, Element115 said:

 

I thought this thread was about how good a job MeDermott did at drafting before Beane arrived?  How is discussing the elephant in the room hijacking the thread?  

Your take is flawed.  One could easily say every team in the NFL made a terrible mistake not drafting Tom Brady.  They all should have traded up to the #1 spot to get him, including New England.  Same with Montana. 

 

Your take also ignores what was going on with that draft. No one, I repeat, no one, thought Mahomes would have the kind of season he had last year. Coming out there were concerns with his footwork  and that he was coming from a system that had never produced a decent NFL QB. 

 

Your take also shows inconsistency in judgement.  You seem to dismiss Allen based on his rookie season, and at the same time you want to anoint Mahomes as savior because of one really  great year.   What if Allen steps up this season , and Mahomes regresses?  I do a lot of research and statistical work; an N of 1 is hardly enough on which to base conclusions.

 

McDermott and Beane have done a good job drafting talent thus far.  The talent is young and will have to develop, but kids like Edmunds, Allen, Oliver, ford et al look like they should have long productive careers. 

[RochesterRob]

1 minute ago, BarleyNY said:

 

No. It was me saying so far, so good on it being one of the Bills’ biggest draft blunders. Mahomes has been ridiculously good.  And it wasn’t like we didn’t need a QB when we did it. 

  I can't believe that people here are still stuck on Mahomes like a junk yard dog is stuck on a soup bone.  Mahomes sat for a year and had Reid to tutor him.  Mahomes draft position would have had fans clambering for him to start early in his rookie season and if that did not happen the talk of being a bust would have been deafening.  Also, Reid was not here to tutor him nor Alex Smith to be a mentor.  People here were moaning about Derek Anderson being signed last year without a single thought as to how it might benefit Allen.