RD 3, Pick 74: RB Devin Singletary, Florida Atlantic

[JESSEFEFFER]

Ok, these megathreads are tough to fully digest but I was on record as saying that:

 

1)  The Bills would/should take a RB in the 3rd round if there was a particular guy they liked

2)  Hoping it would be David Montgomery because even though he lacked elite speed, he was an all-around back that could grind out yards and sustain offense.

 

Since the Bears traded up to 74 and got the one I wanted right in front of the Bills' pick, my team had to "settle" for a slower, smaller less athletic back from a lesser conference.  Now I have to reserve judgement until I actually can see him play against NFL speed defense.  Two of the more important traits of a runner are balance and vision and you don't assess those with a stop watch or tape measure.

[Rampage]

12 minutes ago, dakrider said:

This was simply a bad pick due to the fact there were several very good WR's on the board here!  Singletary is undersized and not fast.   

Frank Gore is finished and Shady could fall off a cliff any minute in production. It’s a great pick for the future of this franchise at the running back position. The wide receivers obviously weren’t that great considered we passed on them.

[GimmeSomeProcess]

8 minutes ago, JESSEFEFFER said:

Ok, these megathreads are tough to fully digest but I was on record as saying that:

 

1)  The Bills would/should take a RB in the 3rd round if there was a particular guy they liked

2)  Hoping it would be David Montgomery because even though he lacked elite speed, he was an all-around back that could grind out yards and sustain offense.

 

Since the Bears traded up to 74 and got the one I wanted right in front of the Bills' pick, my team had to "settle" for a slower, smaller less athletic back from a lesser conference.  Now I have to reserve judgement until I actually can see him play against NFL speed defense.  Two of the more important traits of a runner are balance and vision and you don't assess those with a stop watch or tape measure.

His testing may be less athletic but his game film is not. His vision, quick twitch moves, acceleration and  balance after contact is unreal. 

[Hapless Bills Fan]

2 minutes ago, GimmeSomeProcess said:

His testing may be less athletic but his game film is not. His vision, quick twitch moves, acceleration and  balance after contact is unreal. 

 

I think what his film illustrates is that Combine agility/speed and actual game-time agility/speed are not the same, and the former may not predict the latter.

 

[hemma]

I think it’s going to be tough to keep this guy on the bench.  Latter part of the year, he may get the bulk of the carries.

Shady seems to have his fair share of hamstring problems and I can’t see Gore carrying the full load.

[Boatdrinks]

33 minutes ago, dakrider said:

This was simply a bad pick due to the fact there were several very good WR's on the board here!  Singletary is undersized and not fast.   

Yet Beane has stated that they simply stuck with their board and took their top rated player in each spot; he didn’t want to reach. So while they need a certain type of WR to finish this offensive roster, that player wasn’t available to them when they picked . Just the way the board fell. I was hoping for a WR after round two, but just wasn’t the right draft class I guess. 

[Mikie2times]

Love the pick. You can’t find him behind the line. Fantastic football speed. Low center of gravity. Bounces off defenders. People get way too caught up in his 40. In today’s NFL you aren’t likely to outrun defenses. This guy plays the 0-15 yard game as well as any back in the draft. 

[GimmeSomeProcess]

23 hours ago, GreggTX said:

I've been looking into this guy some more. I don't think he can be elite because of his speed, but he can be effective. We'll still need to add a RB next year, but RB by committee can work. He's small and slow, but doesn't go down easily. His speed is just enough to get by. Very elusive.

His combine was slow but the kid had the speed during games. 

[billsredneck1]

i wanted edge here, but trusting the process.

[Mat68]

2 hours ago, Turk71 said:

Against Ok 18 carries 69 yds 3.8 ypc , 26 of those yds on one carry; meaning 17 carries for 43 yds 2.5 ypc on the rest of them. Oklahoma had 25 defenders record at least one tackle which means the entire bench got to play. I am pretty sure he wasn't the best player on the field that day.

Glad you took the time and watched it, not just look at the stat sheet.  He was the first, second, and third key for the defense.  Routinely, made the first guy miss and for most of the game it was behind the LOS.

[Turk71]

7 minutes ago, Mat68 said:

Glad you took the time and watched it, not just look at the stat sheet.  He was the first, second, and third key for the defense.  Routinely, made the first guy miss and for most of the game it was behind the LOS.

You're right, I didn't watch it. When I get a chance I will watch some of his tape. 

  I am definitely not rooting against him, I hope it turns out he was an awesome pick.

[Success]

My hot take of the day: by the end of the season, this guy will be our top back.

[Mat68]

1 minute ago, Turk71 said:

You're right, I didn't watch it. When I get a chance I will watch some of his tape. 

  I am definitely not rooting against him, I hope it turns out he was an awesome pick.

I came away from those games wondering if any other back would have gotten more out of the runs.  The number 1 Rb drafted had the same 40 time.  You watch them play and there is no way you think they are the same speed.  He could be a real weapon in the offense this year.  

[WhickedWilliams]

2 hours ago, KzooMike said:

Love the pick. You can’t find him behind the line. Fantastic football speed. Low center of gravity. Bounces off defenders. People get way too caught up in his 40. In today’s NFL you aren’t likely to outrun defenses. This guy plays the 0-15 yard game as well as any back in the draft. 

 

 

Travis Henry 2.0

[WideNine]

He may have not been at the top of their board at RB, but there was a bit of a run on the position and perhaps their board was getting a bit thin at RB a position they were determined to inject with some youth.

 

The Bills only brought in Darrell Henderson and Miles Sanders for official pre-draft visits, but there were 27 teams in attendance at the Iowa State pro-day to see RB Montgomery too. 

 

After they moved up to the 6th spot to nab Ford in the 2nd they held the 11th pick in the 3rd. During that wait Miles went 21st in the 2nd, and Henderson went to the Rams on the 6th pick of the 3rd, and Montgomery right before their 11th pick to the Bears. Probably felt they had to pull the trigger when they did, so I get it.

 

Wishing "Motor" much success.

[Bookie Man]

He jukes people like Shady, but he can also run through you. Exciting player. 

[dakrider]

43 minutes ago, R Y G A R said:

He jukes people like Shady, but he can also run through you. Exciting player. 

 

I guess we'll see about that.

[Bookie Man]

3 minutes ago, dakrider said:

 

I guess we'll see about that.

Yeah, you can go to youtube and see about it. He runs through tackles. 

[rayray808]

Something tells me he is gonna be the starter by mid season

[MakeBuffaloGreatAgain]

2 hours ago, dakrider said:

 

I guess we'll see about that.

Why make a comment like this? Just stay under your rock... please

[BillsFan1988]

Devin averaged 5.2 yds per carry in 2018 in a horrible conference.  I hope his Oline had more to do with that then him.  

 

I much rather have taken Winovich or Sternberger at that pk then trade up for Hakeem Butler.  Good backs were going all the way threw the 6th rd in this draft. Who knows Singletary might of stuck around to our 5th rd pk. Not sure many teams cover at 5'7 195lb back with over 700 carries this early in the draft.  Shifty or not I mean Tarik Cohen went in the 5th and he's more talented then Singletary. 

[Magox]

2 hours ago, BillsFan1988 said:

Devin averaged 5.2 yds per carry in 2018 in a horrible conference.  I hope his Oline had more to do with that then him.  

 

I much rather have taken Winovich or Sternberger at that pk then trade up for Hakeem Butler.  Good backs were going all the way threw the 6th rd in this draft. Who knows Singletary might of stuck around to our 5th rd pk. Not sure many teams cover at 5'7 195lb back with over 700 carries this early in the draft.  Shifty or not I mean Tarik Cohen went in the 5th and he's more talented then Singletary. 

Clearly the Bill's scouting department and decision makers feel differently, but I'm guessing all your extensive and exhaustive hours researching and scouting came to this informed analysis.

[BillsFan1988]

1 minute ago, Magox said:

Clearly the Bill's scouting department and decision makers feel differently, but I'm guessing all your extensive and exhaustive hours researching and scouting came to this informed analysis.

The kid will be average at best in the NFL . We reached for him and in turn gave up basically the rest of our mid rd pks to get Knox . In which Beane has admitted to getting nervous about during the draft.  In my opinion that's where we lost the draft.

[Toesy]

As somebody pointed out-this guy played at the same school as Alfred Morris and broke all his records-Morris 2X Pro Bowl RB. Morris (6th rd) started as a rookie.

[Cripple Creek]

15 hours ago, Augie said:

I get upset when guys fly up in a draft because of measurable from the Combine, so I guess I can’t be too upset if a guy doesn’t drop like a brick. I know it matters to some degree, but the film looks pretty impressive. What do I know, so I’ll wait and see. 

You need to work on your bluster.  I can recommend a few people for you to follow closely because they are at the top of the bluster game.

[Magox]

I was listening to Sirius NFL radio this morning and Charlie Weiss has a show.    They were taking callers from fans asking about their teams draft.   There was a caller who was a Bills fan and asked Charlie what he thought of the Singletary pick.      Weiss says that he thought it was a homerun pick.  Says he watched all 12 games of his and concluded that he  was one of the top 2 overall backs in this years draft but the best pure runner and possibly the best pure runner he's seen in the last few drafts.   Says the only reason why he didn't go higher was because of he lacks top end speed and that he is as short as he is.    Weiss was saying that it is nearly impossible for the first guy to tackle him, he just makes people miss.  Says he is the same type of runner that Shady is.    And that he believes there is no doubt that he will end up being the starting running back if not this year then by next.   

 

This matches pretty closely with what I saw.   The guy has elite level vision, elite level moves/elusiveness and he breaks tons of tackles.  I keep hearing from some fans that believe he is some sort of gadget back.   That is the farthest thing from the truth, the only possible reason that I can think that some people hold this clearly ignorant view is that he's 5'8.       The guy is an in-between-the-tackle runner.  Look at his film, that's where he makes his living.   He isn't some guy that is just elusive out in the open field, he has the same sort of quality that Shady does which has the unique ability to run through you without hardly being touched.   He doesn't need to be out in the open field to juke your socks off, he can do it in an instant in tight spaces.    I saw a stat that he led college football in yards after contact.   This is a sturdy compact 5'8 205 pounder who despite not having top end speed, has a very impressive 1st and 2nd gear who can accelerate past defenders.     Not only that, the dude hardly ever fumbles the ball.      

 

If anyone actually takes the time and watches a lot of his film, looks at his stats and I don't just mean the on-the-surface stats which are impressive as hell but some of the other stats such as yards after contact, ball handling etc they will see that this guy is a really good runner.  

[Toesy]

Yeah-I don't think they drafted him because of any sort of multi-year plan-they picked him just because of his ability-they didn't need a RB.

[Cripple Creek]

15 hours ago, Turk71 said:

Shady ran the 40 in 4.45, Singletary 4.66. Pretty big difference there. Singletary significantly slower in 3 cone drill, 20 yard shuttle, 10 yd split etc.

Will be interesting to see if his style works against much much quicker and faster competition than he saw at FAU. I am a bit skeptical but hope to be pleasantly surprised.

At the other end of the spectrum Terrell Davis ran a 4.72.  He had a decent career IIRC.

[Toesy]

I haven't seen that much of Bell but he doesn't seem to have top end speed either-hasn't hurt his production at all.

[Cripple Creek]

2 hours ago, BillsFan1988 said:

The kid will be average at best in the NFL . We reached for him and in turn gave up basically the rest of our mid rd pks to get Knox . In which Beane has admitted to getting nervous about during the draft.  In my opinion that's where we lost the draft.

So, he will be an average NFL player, we reached, Beane was nervous and we lost the draft.  You may have just set the record for # of hot takes in less than 52 words.

 

One thing I have learned in my many years on this planet is "do not make pronouncements about things you are not expert in." Have an opinion, offer that opinion, but, don't make pronouncements because they have a tendency to make you look stupid if anyone cares to bring them up down the road.

[akm0404]

55 minutes ago, Toesy said:

Yeah-I don't think they drafted him because of any sort of multi-year plan-they picked him just because of his ability-they didn't need a RB.

 

Say what?  You really believe that our front office doesn't think past the upcoming season when acquiring players?  Not sure what else to say about this one.

Edited April 29, 2019 by akm0404

[WideNine]

47 minutes ago, Magox said:

I was listening to Sirius NFL radio this morning and Charlie Weiss has a show.    They were taking callers from fans asking about their teams draft.   There was a caller who was a Bills fan and asked Charlie what he thought of the Singletary pick.      Weiss says that he thought it was a homerun pick.  Says he watched all 12 games of his and concluded that he  was one of the top 2 overall backs in this years draft but the best pure runner and possibly the best pure runner he's seen in the last few drafts.   Says the only reason why he didn't go higher was because of he lacks top end speed and that he is as short as he is.    Weiss was saying that it is nearly impossible for the first guy to tackle him, he just makes people miss.  Says he is the same type of runner that Shady is.    And that he believes there is no doubt that he will end up being the starting running back if not this year then by next.   

 

This matches pretty closely with what I saw.   The guy has elite level vision, elite level moves/elusiveness and he breaks tons of tackles.  I keep hearing from some fans that believe he is some sort of gadget back.   That is the farthest thing from the truth, the only possible reason that I can think that some people hold this clearly ignorant view is that he's 5'8.       The guy is an in-between-the-tackle runner.  Look at his film, that's where he makes his living.   He isn't some guy that is just elusive out in the open field, he has the same sort of quality that Shady does which has the unique ability to run through you without hardly being touched.   He doesn't need to be out in the open field to juke your socks off, he can do it in an instant in tight spaces.    I saw a stat that he led college football in yards after contact.   This is a sturdy compact 5'8 205 pounder who despite not having top end speed, has a very impressive 1st and 2nd gear who can accelerate past defenders.     Not only that, the dude hardly ever fumbles the ball.      

 

If anyone actually takes the time and watches a lot of his film, looks at his stats and I don't just mean the on-the-surface stats which are impressive as hell but some of the other stats such as yards after contact, ball handling etc they will see that this guy is a really good runner.  

 

I don't get too wrapped around the axle with running backs, even elite running backs will stall behind sub par offensive lines. You fix the line, your backs will find daylight.

 

With that in mind, the thing I like to look for is whether a prospect loses the handle and fumbles too often, or does he have a history of injuries, is there any blocking foundation to build upon, and does he have soft enough hands to catch out of the backfield.

 

Singletary seems durable and I am sure with the injection of maulers in the trenches and with better coaching the Bills will have more success running the ball with all our running backs. The size does not bother me too much as I always liked those low center of gravity runners who will get lost behind the big bodies then squirt out for a bunch of yards. Also we already have players who can fill the role of the short yardage bangers on the roster. Will be interesting to watch this kid grow and to see if the Bills move any RBs currently on the roster.

 

 

 

[Rc2catch]

3 hours ago, BillsFan1988 said:

The kid will be average at best in the NFL . We reached for him and in turn gave up basically the rest of our mid rd pks to get Knox . In which Beane has admitted to getting nervous about during the draft.  In my opinion that's where we lost the draft.

This is the stuff that is wrong on this board. 

We are not pro scouts, to discuss or debate things is one thing, but stating them as fact is silly. 

You cannot possibly KNOW he is at best average in the nfl before he ever plays a down. 

Plenty of guys come out of those rounds as solid contributors and you’re judging they lost the draft off 2 picks? Or the fact they gave up extra chances at hits on low picks to get those 2? You can’t lose a draft before the players see the field. 

[D521646]

Absolutely love this pic, by Beane..  Mafia going to fall in love with this guy as well.  Give it time.

 

Tim-

[billybob71]

i dont know why people get so caught up on 40 times. 4.6 4.5 4.4?  we are talking 1/1000 of a second difference here, a blink of an eye. I think if this kid succeeds its gonna be due to his vision, toughness  and quickness/ shiftiness in tight spaces, he seems to have a nasty jump cut.  What jumps out at me tho is he doesnt just dance around back there either when he sees a seam he plants and goes. If he works hard he has a good chance in my opinion.

[akm0404]

Not disagreeing with your overall sentiment, but we're talking 1/10ths of seconds, not 1/1000ths.

[billybob71]

my bad should have stuck with the blink of an eye

[billybob71]

i think that 1/10th of a second may be more important when assessing a wr running deep routes but significantly less important when talking rb

[Bockeye]

12 minutes ago, billybob71 said:

my bad should have stuck with the blink of an eye

You're all good Billy...

 

I takes on average about 300 milliseconds to blink. The eyelid travels maybe a couple of centimeters each way. We blink in about 1/10th of a second. The eyelid moves a little more than a centimeter down, then the same distance back up again - so the speed is around 20cm/sec - which is only about a half a mile per hour.

[DrinkinBuddy]

I love the bills draft for the most part. The 1st 2 picks were a dream scenario. I'm struggling a bit with the two 3rd rounders.

 

I think we're in an era where combine numbers dominant discussion. Singletary's #s are lackluster but what don't they don't capture is his elite vision. Shady and Faulk had rare vision where they saw the entire field and used to maximize their yards. Obviously much debate in this 28 page thread about this.

 

So say we went another route with our 1st 3rd rounder and didn't move up for Knox. What ifs don't really matter except for discussion purposes on a message board. 

 

What if our picks shook out like so:

 

3.11: Winovich - EDGE

4.10: Bryce Love - RB

4.35: Moreau -  TE

 

Would the masses prefer this outcome to Singletary/Knox?