Why I think T.J. Hockenson, TE Iowa, will be the #9 pick

[aristocrat]

If ends up as a 1000 yard guy nobody would hate this pick 

[TC in St. Louis]

First of all, because there was a thread about this guy on March 15 shouldn't stop somebody from introducing the topic on April 6th.  Who's got time to research the entire Stadium Wall?  Besides, the NFL Network and ESPN do reports on this stuff every single day.  Doesn't stop me from reading it.

 

Secondly, someone made the point about the guy not being labeled a "Generational Talent."  Was Gronk labeled as such?  No.  He lasted till the second, and was chosen ONE PICK after we chose generational talent tackle from NC State....give me a moment while I look this up:  Torrell Troup!  Whifffff!!!  Antonio Brown and Tom Brady were 6th round picks.  Sometimes you hit on something.  Robert Foster.....Levi Wallace, not even drafted.

 

Who would I pick?  I don't know.  I watched some show yesterday where they said Ed Oliver was a super freak athlete difference maker.  We're talking about the 9th best player in the country.  That pick should be a dominant player.  

 

They won't pick for need.....well, maybe they should.  We haven't gotten anybody to replace Kyle Williams.  Maybe it's Oliver.  

 

I watched Hock at the Combine.  He looks like he could become a superstar in the right offense.  

 

I have no idea.  I think my preference would be to try and get some extra picks.  

[machine gun kelly]

Inigo - I’m  with you.  Good post.

[SmokinES3]

I saw NFL.com projecting Fant at #9... Are they high?

I want Hock but I wouldn't be upset with Oliver or even Jonah Williams or Taylor. 

Edited April 6, 2019 by SmokinES3

[NoSaint]

1 hour ago, papazoid said:

TE is the weakest starting position on team.

 

Hockenson will be a perennial pro bowler.

 

a DL at #9 will be the 5th DL chosen

 

If drafting current NFL players I’d get through quite a few DL before picking a TE too though 

[BillsFan1988]

4 hours ago, dubs said:

 

The five best ones

 

I don’t think you pass up the best tackle in the draft because of what the bills did in the offseason. 

At some pt we gonna need impact players for Allen. I think we've done more then enough to solidify the OT position for now.  Btw top quality OTs can be bought in free agency nearly every yr there's some available. U know what u can't find top notch TEs these guys never available via free agency.  

[stinky finger]

4 hours ago, dubs said:

If it’s all about Allen, take Taylor then a TE later. 

 

 

Presently - I'm with you on this thinking.

[buffaloboyinATL]

I think the reason I am so hesitant to get a TE this early is that we have not had a truly impactful TE in so long that I can no longer imagine how much of a difference one can make.  

 

I know that this is irrational and that this fact should be the reason to want one, but we have been without for so long I can no longer even imagine it. I guess I fear that taking a TE this early, regardless of how good he is, will be a wasted pick because we won’t use him enough or the right way.

[Inigo Montoya]

11 hours ago, bkep32 said:

There is already a post about this please dont make another thread 

 

10 hours ago, YoloinOhio said:

I’m not usually “that guy” but common man there is an 11 page thread with this same exact topic already 

 

 

I know there is another post about Hock from three weeks ago discussing this.  It is eleven pages long.

 

I spent three hours working on my post between looking things up and actually  writing it.  I know, that’s a bit much for a post on a TBD message board, but that’s how it goes sometimes because I know posters are going to challenge my position and I want to lay out my thoughts clearly and back them up with stats and facts.

 

I take no offense at you guys pointing out that there is another thread addressing this topic. Hell, Yolo brings more value to this board in one week than I have in the entire time I’ve been here.  I think at some point though, a thread gets so long it stops being useful or manageable.  

 

At the end of the day, agree with my premise about drafting Hock or not, but I think I put together a rational post with new information in it.  I didn’t want to put that effort into a post just to bury it at the end of an 11 page thread from three weeks ago.

 

Now back to the topic again, look at the production of Gronk, Ertz, Kelce, and Kittle.  They are the WR1 on their teams most years and are putting up league wide WR1 numbers. I would take that kind of production for the #9 pick any day, especially on our struggling offense.  I think Hockenson has that potential. 

 

I think Hock, Fant, and Irv Smith are all gone in the 1st.  If we don’t grab a TE at 9 we aren’t getting any of them unless you want to trade back into the first round and there is no way to know if you will even be able to do so. If you do trade back into the first round you will end up expending a lot of draft capital to grab the second or third best TE in the draft because Hock is going to be a top 12 pick and won’t be there.

 

Daboll knows the value of having a big time TE in his offense and I think he will be pushing hard for Hockenson at 9.

 

Will I be upset if we draft Oliver?  Nope.  The kid looks great.  The problem is that Oliver doesn’t help Allen develop and Allen developing means everything for this franchise.  It also means we roll into season two of Allen’s tenure with no WR1 on the team or go-to guy for Allen.  I don’t mean to minimize the value of Brown, Beasley, and Kroft, but none of them are going to be the cornerstone of an offense like a Gronk, Ertz, Kittle, or Kelce are.  I think Allen needs a cornerstone.

 

 

 

 

Edited April 6, 2019 by Inigo Montoya

[LabattBlue]

I heard a guest on WGR earlier today, stating Fant is a much better value and almost an equal player to Hock near the end of the 1st round/early second round, than Hock would be at 9.

[Inigo Montoya]

2 hours ago, TPS said:

@Inigo Montoya I certainly like him and would be happy with the pick, but...

if you’re McBean and you believe this is the last top 10 pick you’ll have over the next 5-7 years, would you rather draft an all pro at DL or at TE with this pick? 

I think the answer is DL. 

 

I respectfully disagree TPS.  If the success or failure of your entire tenure as a GM depends on Josh Allen becoming a franchise QB, I think you draft the All Pro TE.  Imagine having Travis Kelce or Zach Ertz on this offense...

 

Edited April 6, 2019 by Inigo Montoya

[transplantbillsfan]

 

[TPS]

57 minutes ago, Inigo Montoya said:

 

I respectfully disagree TPS.  If the success or failure of your entire tenure as a GM depends on Josh Allen becoming a franchise QB, I think you draft the All Pro TE.  Imagine having Travis Kelce or Zach Ertz on this offense...

 

Believe me, I really like the idea of Hockenson, but going forward I think it'll be a lot easier to draft a potential all pro TE than a potential all pro DL if you're continuously drafting at 20 or worse. I agree that a great TE could certainly help Josh, but I don't think that will determine whether or not he is a franchise QB.  Btw, the one game I went to last year was the Jags, and I mentioned to my friend, after Josh did some amazing thing, "it looks like the Bills have their franchise QB." So, in Beane I trust...

[Formerly Allan in MD]

6 hours ago, dubs said:

If it’s all about Allen, take Taylor then a TE later. 

There ya go!

[WideNine]

2 hours ago, LabattBlue said:

I heard a guest on WGR earlier today, stating Fant is a much better value and almost an equal player to Hock near the end of the 1st round/early second round, than Hock would be at 9.

 

Good article that covers the 2 Iowa prospects pretty well, and why Hockenson shot up the boards when Fant is arguably more athletic.

 

They are both really good, Hock is more complete as a 3-down TE who not only runs great routes and has dependable hands, he will open run lanes and keep your QB upright, Fant is a matchup nightmare for secondaries.

 

https://www.blackheartgoldpants.com/2018/11/13/18089600/the-curious-case-of-noah-fant-iowa-football-bhgp

 

 

Edited April 6, 2019 by WideNine

[hjnick]

10 hours ago, GimmeSomeProcess said:

I like Hockenson a lot but nothing at him screams a generational talent. I think he could develop maybe into a tightend like Whitten but I see more heath miller/Todd heap.

While I’d like a player of that caliber on this roster, I would not pass on him

for a guy like Ed Oliver. Especially when we can still get a tight end like Irv Smith, Josh Oliver, Jace Stenberger or Foster Meanru in the 2nd or 3rd. 

 

Now Noah Fant that’s different 

 

I think this is the key for Hock, if the Bills evaluate him to be a 'Gronk' level TE, then I think you take him at 9 (or trade back a couple of picks, and hope he falls a couple more spots and pick up a 2nd round pick (my favorite thing to do)).  IF not Gronk level, don't take him at 9 or even 10-15, not worth it.  Then wait till 2nd or 3rd round to get a serviceable TE.

[bkep32]

Our run def is horrible, TE take 2 to 3 years to developer, plug it up with oliver

[hjnick]

5 hours ago, Inigo Montoya said:

 

 

I know there is another post about Hock from three weeks ago discussing this.  It is eleven pages long.

 

I spent three hours working on my post between looking things up and actually  writing it.  I know, that’s a bit much for a post on a TBD message board, but that’s how it goes sometimes because I know posters are going to challenge my position and I want to lay out my thoughts clearly and back them up with stats and facts.

 

I take no offense at you guys pointing out that there is another thread addressing this topic. Hell, Yolo brings more value to this board in one week than I have in the entire time I’ve been here.  I think at some point though, a thread gets so long it stops being useful or manageable.  

 

At the end of the day, agree with my premise about drafting Hock or not, but I think I put together a rational post with new information in it.  I didn’t want to put that effort into a post just to burry it at the end of an 11 page thread from three weeks ago.

 

Now back to the topic again, look at the production of Gronk, Ertz, Kelce, and Kittle.  They are the WR1 on their teams most years and are putting up league wide WR1 numbers. I would take that kind of production for the #9 pick any day, especially on our struggling offense.  I think Hockenson has that potential. 

 

I think Hock, Fant, and Irv Smith are all gone in the 1st.  If we don’t grab a TE at 9 we aren’t getting any of them unless you want to trade back into the first round and there is no way to know if you will even be able to do so. If you do trade back into the first round you will end up expending a lot of draft capital to grab the second or third best TE in the draft because Hock is going to be a top 12 pick and won’t be there.

 

Daboll knows the value of having a big time TE in his offense and I think he will be pushing hard for Hockenson at 9.

 

Will I be upset if we draft Oliver?  Nope.  The kid looks great.  The problem is that Oliver doesn’t help Allen develop and Allen developing means everything for this franchise.  It also means we roll into season two of Allen’s tenure with no WR1 on the team or go-to guy for Allen.  I don’t mean to minimize the value of Brown, Beasley, and Kroft, but none of them are going to be the cornerstone of an offense like a Gronk, Ertz, Kittle, or Kelce are.  I think Allen needs a cornerstone.

 

 

 

Hell, I really liked the offense Philly was running because they have 2 TE's that are very serviceable blockers/catchers.

 

That way you can basically have 7 blockers out there, 2 WR, 1 RB (normally). But with that set, you also have 4 pass catchers and a RB.  With this set, you force LB's onto the field because if you they don't match the size of the TE's out there, the offense will just run over the defense.  BUT with good TE's, that also makes a great mismatch of the TE's on LB's.

 

I'm not saying we should draft 2 TE's here.  Only showing that have 2 good catching TE's could create a lot of problems on the defensive side of the ball and also help in the running game.

[GimmeSomeProcess]

3 hours ago, TPS said:

Believe me, I really like the idea of Hockenson, but going forward I think it'll be a lot easier to draft a potential all pro TE than a potential all pro DL if you're continuously drafting at 20 or worse. I agree that a great TE could certainly help Josh, but I don't think that will determine whether or not he is a franchise QB.  Btw, the one game I went to last year was the Jags, and I mentioned to my friend, after Josh did some amazing thing, "it looks like the Bills have their franchise QB." So, in Beane I trust...

Totally agree with you, heck we can do it this year in the 2nd or 3rd with Irv, Stenberger or Fant. 

[Inigo Montoya]

3 hours ago, GimmeSomeProcess said:

Totally agree with you, heck we can do it this year in the 2nd or 3rd with Irv, Stenberger or Fant. 

 

Hey GimmeSome

 

I don't think Fant or Irv Smith will make it out of the first round. I think Hockenson goes in the top 12. He might not even make it to 9 rendering this whole discussion moot.  I saw mocks with him going to the Jags at 7 and the Lions at 8 earlier in the week.  

 

Admittedly, I don't know much about Stenberger.  Is he pretty solid?

 

The draft is always a crap shoot.  First round busts, late round gems.  Kyle Williams 5th rounder.  Travis Kelce 3rd rounder.  Who knows?  

 

Edited April 7, 2019 by Inigo Montoya

[LSHMEAB]

2 minutes ago, Inigo Montoya said:

 

Hey GimmeSome

 

I don't think Fant or Irv Smith

Fant will certainly be a first rounder. Wouldn't be shocked if he went before Hock. The NFL loves UPSIDE. I prefer Hockenson, but Fant is seen as having a higher ceiling. Irv Smith is highly unlikely to go in the first and could potentially fall to the 4th. I think 3rd is most likely. The guy is 6'3 and not much of a blocker. I think he's an intriguing prospect, but the concerns are there and the upside isn't great enough to justify a first round grade.

[stinky finger]

11 hours ago, KRT88 said:

How many OL are we lining up every game? 

 

The best 5.

[DRA3196]

I like the idea of Hock at #9 and I think the OP made some extremely valid points. Especially the take on Daboll knowing how important the TE position is to a strong offense. Hock could definitely help Allen and the entire offense develop over the next several years. He could be as dynamic as McKeller was for Kelly and the K-gun back in the day.

[YodaMan79]

6 hours ago, Inigo Montoya said:

 

I respectfully disagree TPS.  If the success or failure of your entire tenure as a GM depends on Josh Allen becoming a franchise QB, I think you draft the All Pro TE.  Imagine having Travis Kelce or Zach Ertz on this offense...

 

 

What rounds were those two drafted in?  Hint....I've covered this in the thread already.  

6 hours ago, transplantbillsfan said:

 

That's fine and dandy...but in the past 18+ years only 3 TE's have been drafted in the top ten: Winslow, Davis & Ebron.  In the past 10, only Ebron.  So that doesn't mean sh!t to me,  A majority of the rest were taken between picks 25-100.  Quality TEs will be there later.  Elite teams are built on the lines, go BPA in the foundational positions.  The guys clambering for this kid are the same simpletons that are distracted by a shinny new coin and most likely entertained by ESPN and S.A. Smith. 

1 hour ago, hjnick said:

Hell, I really liked the offense Philly was running because they have 2 TE's that are very serviceable blockers/catchers.

 

That way you can basically have 7 blockers out there, 2 WR, 1 RB (normally). But with that set, you also have 4 pass catchers and a RB.  With this set, you force LB's onto the field because if you they don't match the size of the TE's out there, the offense will just run over the defense.  BUT with good TE's, that also makes a great mismatch of the TE's on LB's.

 

I'm not saying we should draft 2 TE's here.  Only showing that have 2 good catching TE's could create a lot of problems on the defensive side of the ball and also help in the running game.

What rounds were these three stud TEs drafted?  SECOND ROUND and Celek was the 5th.  You use your draft capital to grab the highest valued assets.  It's a lottery ticket for high value positions.  If you're going to hit on one, make it a guy who you can get 10+ years of elite play out of.

Edited April 7, 2019 by YodaMan79

[Putin]

12 hours ago, GimmeSomeProcess said:

I like Hockenson a lot but nothing at him screams a generational talent. I think he could develop maybe into a tightend like Whitten but I see more heath miller/Todd heap.

While I’d like a player of that caliber on this roster, I would not pass on him

for a guy like Ed Oliver. Especially when we can still get a tight end like Irv Smith, Josh Oliver, Jace Stenberger or Foster Meanru in the 2nd or 3rd. 

 

Now Noah Fant that’s different 

I think Noah Fant will be a MUCH better TE then Hochenson , It also wouldn’t surprise me if Noah is drafted before Hockenson 

Edited April 7, 2019 by Putin

[Mat68]

If you go offense at 9 it would have to be Metcalf.  The idea of an elite pass catching Te who can also block is fantastic.  My problem is Hockinson hasn't shown he is an Elite pass catcher.  The argument against Metcalf is injuries and production.  Metcalf in 2 less games has 200 more yards and five more TDs then the safer player Hockinson.  When on the feild Metcalf produced at a higher rate while also having another player at his position on the team that is going to be drafted similar to Hockinson.  

[TPS]

19 minutes ago, YodaMan79 said:

 

What rounds were those two drafted in?  Hint....I've covered this in the thread already.  

That's fine and dandy...but in the past 18+ years only 3 TE's have been drafted in the top ten: Winslow, Davis & Ebron.  In the past 10, only Ebron.  So that doesn't mean sh!t to me,  A majority of the rest were taken between picks 25-100.  Quality TEs will be there later.  Elite teams are built on the lines, go BPA in the foundational positions.  The guys clambering for this kid are the same simpletons that are distracted by a shinny new coin and most likely entertained by ESPN and S.A. Smith. 

What rounds were these three stud TEs drafted?  SECOND ROUND and Celek was the 5th.  You use your draft capital to grab the highest valued assets.  It's a lottery ticket for high value positions.  If you're going to hit on one, make it a guy who you can get 10+ years of elite play out of.

Sorry I Missed your first post. Agree with this.

[JMF2006]

10 hours ago, NewEra said:

While I wouldn’t be upset about it, I think the Jags will take him at 7.

 

 

 

That would be fine with me unless there is a stud DE or OT at 9 Beane should trade down a few slots and draft the much faster Fant.

[Inigo Montoya]

1 hour ago, YodaMan79 said:

 

What rounds were those two drafted in?  Hint....I've covered this in the thread already.  

That's fine and dandy...but in the past 18+ years only 3 TE's have been drafted in the top ten: Winslow, Davis & Ebron.  In the past 10, only Ebron.  So that doesn't mean sh!t to me,  A majority of the rest were taken between picks 25-100.  Quality TEs will be there later.  Elite teams are built on the lines, go BPA in the foundational positions.  They guys clambering for this kid are the same simpletons that are distracted by a shinny new coin and most likely entertained by ESPN and S.A. Smith. 

What rounds were these three stud TEs drafted?  SECOND ROUND and Celek was the 5th.  You use your draft capital to grab the highest valued assets.  It a lottery ticket for high value positions.

 

Yep, I'm a simpleton.  You, YodaMan79, are an anonymous internet football message board genius.  I get distracted by squirrels and shiny objects all the time. How dare I support the Bills selecting a TE, a player who is a consensus top 10 draft pick, on a team starved for offensive production?

 

If Beane hadn't gone buck wild on the O-line in FA, I would say we should draft a O-lineman at 9.  I don't think we need to do that anymore. If you read my posts you will see that I would also be fine with Oliver at 9, but I think this offense and Josh Allen needs help more than our defense does, and if Oliver and Hockenson have similar grades and they are both sitting there at 9, I think the tie goes to the offense and Allen.

 

The fact that there were not many TEs drafted high previously means exactly nothing today as the game is changing. The TE position is undergoing a renaissance in the NFL and many teams are using them as the focal point of the offense, not a just supporting position.  Look at Kittle, Gronk, Ertz, Kelce.  Or maybe I'm just making their WR1 production up.  The fact that at least two and probably three TEs are projected to go in the first round this year torpedoes your point completely don't ya think? 

 

Do you really want to play the "where someone got drafted game" like anyone can't throw out the names of a dozen players in a minute who were drafted too high or were a late round gem to try to make a point on either side of the argument?   Using your logic I could hear you say,  "Tom Brady was a sixth round draft pick and he's the GOAT so only a simpleton would draft a QB in the first round!"  

 

In the end YodaMan, you may be right.  I've got no problem with anyone disagreeing with my position, because while I think I can back up my arguments well, I don't believe that I have some cosmic monopoly on the truth.  If you want to disagree with me, fine, but drop the name calling BS.  Act like a grown up not some #### sure teenager hurling insults on this message board.  In short, quit being a jerk.

 

I do not mean to pry, but you don't by any chance happen to have six fingers on your right hand? 

 

Edited April 7, 2019 by Inigo Montoya

[BillsVet]

Not totally opposed to take a TE high, but as long as McD is the HC, I can't see him accepting them passing on the available DL.  Especially after their off-season.  He's a defense first coach, as evidenced by personnel acquisitions in the first 2 off-seasons, 2 DE's are in the final year of their deals and he loves his DT's.  Not to mention, H. Phillips is a rookie and J. Phillips is on a one year deal.  

 

Still, drafting offense in the first is what a team that at times couldn't score last year should do.  Then again, McD doesn't strike me as the type who accepts where the game is in 2019.  

[YodaMan79]

Yes, I was being an #######.  

 

Inigo Montoya --- The TE position has been evolving.  But it isn't something that just started,  go back and look from 2014 to present.  2011 was pretty good, also.    

 

Here's a little help: http://www.nfl.com/stats/categorystats?archive=true&conference=null&statisticPositionCategory=TIGHT_END&season=2013&seasonType=REG&experience=&tabSeq=1&qualified=false&Submit=Go

 

The fact TEs haven't been drafted that high does mean something.  You proved my point, too.  Where were those highly productive TEs you mentioned drafted?  It's similar to the evolution of RB value, position production & where they can be drafted/acquired.  This kid could be the second coming of Gronk, if so that would be amazing.  But Gronk's the best all-round TE ever.  Those odds are slim.  DL seems to be where elite teams can make their mark.  Please give be F. Cox, Donald or a JJ. Watt type.  We need to stop the ball from being thrown so easily.  I think 5 years of control over an DL prospect or game changing WR does more for the team in the long run. 

 

This league is evolving, not just the TE position.  Passing is now easier than ever.  WR numbers are off the charts.  The fact you mention 4 TEs having WR #1 numbers is a product of the league, as well, wouldn't you agree?  It didn't just start this year either.  Again, I could be wrong.  But, Donte Whitner comes to mind.  Not a bad player, but he had no business being drafted where he was.  I guess the same could be said for a number recent Bills picks in Rd #1. 

 

We both want the same thing...a watchable product that can be sustained for years to come.  

[Inigo Montoya]

3 minutes ago, YodaMan79 said:

Yes, I was being an #######.  

 

Inigo Montoya --- The TE position has been evolving.  But it isn't something that just started,  go back and look from 2014 to present.  2011 was pretty good, also.    

 

Here's a little help: http://www.nfl.com/stats/categorystats?archive=true&conference=null&statisticPositionCategory=TIGHT_END&season=2013&seasonType=REG&experience=&tabSeq=1&qualified=false&Submit=Go

 

The fact TEs haven't been drafted that high does mean something.  You proved my point, too.  Where were those highly productive TEs you mentioned drafted?  It's similar to the evolution of RB value, position production & where they can be drafted/acquired.  This kid could be the second coming of Gronk, if so that would be amazing.  But Gronk's the best all-round TE ever.  Those odds are slim.  DL seems to be where elite teams can make their mark.  Please give be F. Cox, Donald or a JJ. Watt type.  We need to stop the ball from being thrown so easily.  I think 5 years of control over an DL prospect or game changing WR does more for the team in the long run. 

 

This league is evolving, not just the TE position.  Passing is now easier than ever.  WR numbers are off the charts.  The fact you mention 4 TEs having WR #1 numbers is a product of the league, as well, wouldn't you agree?  It didn't just start this year either.  Again, I could be wrong.  But, Donte Whitner comes to mind.  Not a bad player, but he had no business being drafted where he was.  I guess the same could be said for a number recent Bills picks in Rd #1. 

 

We both want the same thing...a watchable product that can be sustained for years to come.  

 

Fair enough.

 

Peace.  ?

[Sherlock Holmes]

14 hours ago, Inigo Montoya said:

I wanted to put together all the reasons why I think McBeane will grab T.J. if he is there at #9 when the Bills are on the clock.

 

1.)  It has been stated many times on this board that the success or failure of the entire McBeane Era will come down to just one thing, does Josh Allen become a true franchise QB.  Helping Allen continue to develop is the single most important factor in this franchise turning the corner.  I think McBeane wants to give Josh Allen a go-to-guy that he can lean on and bail him out when needed.  They believe in that so much that they were willing to chase Antonio Brown in FA and bring him into this locker room, with all of Brown's attendant drama, and shell out some serous cash to get him into a Bill's uniform.  They understand it's critically important for Josh Allen to get some weapons on the offense.

 

2.) T.J. Hockenson is widely considered the best TE in the draft.  He won the John Mackey Award as the nations top collegiate TE.  He is the best blocking TE in the draft, has great route running skills, soft hands, and the size to go up and grab those 50/50 balls.  He is a complete TE, he can catch and block.  He is a three down TE.  He is a process guy. 

 

Combine:   "Hockenson is currently seen as the better overall prospect (over Fant), due to superior blocking abilities. Still, his athletic ability left nothing to be desired. At 6-foot-4  3/4 and 251 pounds, Hockenson’s 4.70-second time in the 40-yard dash is very good. The same goes for his 37.5-inch vertical and 10-foot-3 broad jump. However, his agility numbers are the equal of many of the better wide receivers in this year’s draft class, with a 7.02-second time in the 3-cone drill and a short shuttle time of 4.18."

 

3.)  Some say you should not select a TE at #9, it is not a premium position.  I disagree.  The NFL game is evolving on offense and many teams have built their offense around a great TE.  Gronk and the Pats for years, Ertz in Philly, Kelce in K.C., Olson in Carolina, and recently Kittle in San Fran.  They are offenses that scheme to create mismatches with their TE, too big for a corner to cover well, too fast for a LB to keep up with.  You don't need a true WR1 if you have a great TE.  We don't have a WR1 and we are not likely going to draft a WR who is going to be a WR1 this year.

 

4.)   The kid can block.  For years Shady feasted running behind the left side of our line, Glenn-Incognito-Woods.  Now imagine running behind the left side of the line with Hockenson-Nsekhe-Spain-Morse (I think Nsekhe beats out Dawkins). I think Shady will be back in business.  Better yet, the defense won't know if Hockenson is there to block on a running play, or going out into the flat or up the seam as a receiver.   In this alignment, which should be our base offensive set, it will be hard for a defense to guess run vs pass.  In Hockenson we are drafting a great TE and a solid O-lineman in one pick.  I think there is some extra value there. 

 

5.)   Of course, for this to work you need to have an offensive coordinator who understands how to utilize the TE creatively.  Enter Brian Daboll, formerly of the Rob Gronkowski Patriots.  Not only was he there to see it, he was actually the TE coach for the Pats from 2014-2016.  Gronk had 82 catches for 1,124 yards and 12 TDs in 15 games in 2014,  72 catches for 1,176 yards and 11 TDs in 15 games in 2015, and was injured in 2016 but still posted 25 catches for 540 yards and 3 TDs in only 8 games, two of which he was knocked out of early, and two others he was limited in.  I'd say Daboll understands both how to scheme for a TE, and understands the value of the TE position.

 

6.)  Daboll is not the only one who recognizes the value of a great TE.  These are quotes from Sean McDermott at the owners meeting two weeks ago about what Greg Olson meant to the development of Cam Newton and to the offense overall. "I liked it when we were on offense and it was third and about five because I knew we were going to get a 1st down because we had Greg Olson."   Talking about watching Olson in Carolina and Chad Lewis in Philly play, "I feel like I learned at an early age about how important that tight end position is to a quarterback, and particularly a young quarterback, it becomes a security blanket."  Who else watched the impact Olson had on Cam Newton as his security blanket in Carolina?  Some guy named Brandon Beane.

 

7.)   Signing Tyler Kroft does not preclude them drafting Hockenson at #9.  Once again at the owner's meeting McDermott stressed the importance of player leadership, of having a veteran leader in every position room who would hold the young guys accountable and show them the ropes.  I think McDermott learned this lesson the hard way seeing the impact a lack of veteran leadership in the QB room had on Allen's development.  I think this will be Kroft's main role, to mentor Hockenson, and hopefully Kroft will also bounce back to his 2017 form where he had 42 receptions and 7 TDs, but that would be icing on the cake.  McDermott said it plainly "Ideally, you have a leader in every room (position room), and a competition in every room because competition brings out the best in all of us."  

 

8.)   Right now we only have three TEs on the roster, Kroft, Croom, and Jake Fisher from Cincy who is a converted O-Lineman.  We rolled into the season last year with four, Clay, Croom, Logan Thomas, and Khari Lee on the roster opening day.  We definitely have space for another TE or two on the roster to take into camp.  We had six TEs in camp last year with O'Leary and Towbridge  there as well.  We will be drafting a TE in this draft. 

 

Do we go DT or EDGE in the draft at #9 and hope we can trade back up into the 1st round to grab Fant or Irv Smith?  We can try, but there is no guarantee we will be able to do that, and neither of those guys are getting out of the 1st round.  If we don't grab Hockenson at #9, we may not get an elite TE prospect in this draft at all.

 

9.)   And lastly, to circle back around to the first point, there will be some great defensive players available when we draft at #9 that would immediately upgrade the defense and address a need at DT or EDGE.  At the end of the day, the Bills will rise or fall as a franchise over the next three years based on what Josh Allen becomes.  If you have a weapon like T.J Hockenson sitting there who can be the go-to weapon that Allen needs, possibly the next Kelce, Ertz, Kittle, Olson, or even a Gronk, develop into Allen's "security blanket", be a beast in the run game, and a be high character Process kind of guy to boot, I don't know how you pass him up especially considering the lack of any WR1 on this team for Josh Allen. 

 

Will there be a learning curve for a rookie TE?   Of course, but I think McBeane sees the 2019 season as a stepping stone for 2020 (I still think we will be much improved and make the playoffs in 2019).   2019 will be the season that Hockenson learns the pro game, gels with the O-line, and develops a rapport with Allen.  I believe the plan is for this team to be good enough to contend for a Super Bowl in 2020 if Allen continues to develop.  I think Allen having a weapon like T.J. Hockenson around him is more impactful to this team taking that next step than adding another great defensive player this year.

 

 

 

Would love to trade down for him also would love to trade back up for him after somehow snagging Bosa.

[Augie]

Is there anything we can do to move the draft up a couple weeks???

[Inigo Montoya]

10 minutes ago, Augie said:

Is there anything we can do to move the draft up a couple weeks???

 

I wish!  I'm going to be at the draft this year with my son. I've never been to an NFL draft before.  We only live two hours from Nashville and we will be there for the first two days.  If you see someone wearing a blue Kyle Williams jersey who looks just like Matthew McConaughey, except for being older, bald, heavier, and way less attractive, that will be me!!!

[Buffalo Barbarian]

17 hours ago, Inigo Montoya said:

I wanted to put together all the reasons why I think McBeane will grab T.J. if he is there at #9 when the Bills are on the clock.

 

1.)  It has been stated many times on this board that the success or failure of the entire McBeane Era will come down to just one thing, does Josh Allen become a true franchise QB.  Helping Allen continue to develop is the single most important factor in this franchise turning the corner.  I think McBeane wants to give Josh Allen a go-to-guy that he can lean on and bail him out when needed.  They believe in that so much that they were willing to chase Antonio Brown in FA and bring him into this locker room, with all of Brown's attendant drama, and shell out some serous cash to get him into a Bill's uniform.  They understand it's critically important for Josh Allen to get some weapons on the offense.

 

2.) T.J. Hockenson is widely considered the best TE in the draft.  He won the John Mackey Award as the nations top collegiate TE.  He is the best blocking TE in the draft, has great route running skills, soft hands, and the size to go up and grab those 50/50 balls.  He is a complete TE, he can catch and block.  He is a three down TE.  He is a process guy. 

 

Combine:   "Hockenson is currently seen as the better overall prospect (over Fant), due to superior blocking abilities. Still, his athletic ability left nothing to be desired. At 6-foot-4  3/4 and 251 pounds, Hockenson’s 4.70-second time in the 40-yard dash is very good. The same goes for his 37.5-inch vertical and 10-foot-3 broad jump. However, his agility numbers are the equal of many of the better wide receivers in this year’s draft class, with a 7.02-second time in the 3-cone drill and a short shuttle time of 4.18."

 

3.)  Some say you should not select a TE at #9, it is not a premium position.  I disagree.  The NFL game is evolving on offense and many teams have built their offense around a great TE.  Gronk and the Pats for years, Ertz in Philly, Kelce in K.C., Olson in Carolina, and recently Kittle in San Fran.  They are offenses that scheme to create mismatches with their TE, too big for a corner to cover well, too fast for a LB to keep up with.  You don't need a true WR1 if you have a great TE.  We don't have a WR1 and we are not likely going to draft a WR who is going to be a WR1 this year.

 

4.)   The kid can block.  For years Shady feasted running behind the left side of our line, Glenn-Incognito-Woods.  Now imagine running behind the left side of the line with Hockenson-Nsekhe-Spain-Morse (I think Nsekhe beats out Dawkins). I think Shady will be back in business.  Better yet, the defense won't know if Hockenson is there to block on a running play, or going out into the flat or up the seam as a receiver.   In this alignment, which should be our base offensive set, it will be hard for a defense to guess run vs pass.  In Hockenson we are drafting a great TE and a solid O-lineman in one pick.  I think there is some extra value there. 

 

5.)   Of course, for this to work you need to have an offensive coordinator who understands how to utilize the TE creatively.  Enter Brian Daboll, formerly of the Rob Gronkowski Patriots.  Not only was he there to see it, he was actually the TE coach for the Pats from 2014-2016.  Gronk had 82 catches for 1,124 yards and 12 TDs in 15 games in 2014,  72 catches for 1,176 yards and 11 TDs in 15 games in 2015, and was injured in 2016 but still posted 25 catches for 540 yards and 3 TDs in only 8 games, two of which he was knocked out of early, and two others he was limited in.  I'd say Daboll understands both how to scheme for a TE, and understands the value of the TE position.

 

6.)  Daboll is not the only one who recognizes the value of a great TE.  These are quotes from Sean McDermott at the owners meeting two weeks ago about what Greg Olson meant to the development of Cam Newton and to the offense overall. "I liked it when we were on offense and it was third and about five because I knew we were going to get a 1st down because we had Greg Olson."   Talking about watching Olson in Carolina and Chad Lewis in Philly play, "I feel like I learned at an early age about how important that tight end position is to a quarterback, and particularly a young quarterback, it becomes a security blanket."  Who else watched the impact Olson had on Cam Newton as his security blanket in Carolina?  Some guy named Brandon Beane.

 

7.)   Signing Tyler Kroft does not preclude them drafting Hockenson at #9.  Once again at the owner's meeting McDermott stressed the importance of player leadership, of having a veteran leader in every position room who would hold the young guys accountable and show them the ropes.  I think McDermott learned this lesson the hard way seeing the impact a lack of veteran leadership in the QB room had on Allen's development.  I think this will be Kroft's main role, to mentor Hockenson, and hopefully Kroft will also bounce back to his 2017 form where he had 42 receptions and 7 TDs, but that would be icing on the cake.  McDermott said it plainly "Ideally, you have a leader in every room (position room), and a competition in every room because competition brings out the best in all of us."  

 

8.)   Right now we only have three TEs on the roster, Kroft, Croom, and Jake Fisher from Cincy who is a converted O-Lineman.  We rolled into the season last year with four, Clay, Croom, Logan Thomas, and Khari Lee on the roster opening day.  We definitely have space for another TE or two on the roster to take into camp.  We had six TEs in camp last year with O'Leary and Towbridge  there as well.  We will be drafting a TE in this draft. 

 

Do we go DT or EDGE in the draft at #9 and hope we can trade back up into the 1st round to grab Fant or Irv Smith?  We can try, but there is no guarantee we will be able to do that, and neither of those guys are getting out of the 1st round.  If we don't grab Hockenson at #9, we may not get an elite TE prospect in this draft at all.

 

9.)   And lastly, to circle back around to the first point, there will be some great defensive players available when we draft at #9 that would immediately upgrade the defense and address a need at DT or EDGE.  At the end of the day, the Bills will rise or fall as a franchise over the next three years based on what Josh Allen becomes.  If you have a weapon like T.J Hockenson sitting there who can be the go-to weapon that Allen needs, possibly the next Kelce, Ertz, Kittle, Olson, or even a Gronk, develop into Allen's "security blanket", be a beast in the run game, and a be high character Process kind of guy to boot, I don't know how you pass him up especially considering the lack of any WR1 on this team for Josh Allen. 

 

Will there be a learning curve for a rookie TE?   Of course, but I think McBeane sees the 2019 season as a stepping stone for 2020 (I still think we will be much improved and make the playoffs in 2019).   2019 will be the season that Hockenson learns the pro game, gels with the O-line, and develops a rapport with Allen.  I believe the plan is for this team to be good enough to contend for a Super Bowl in 2020 if Allen continues to develop.  I think Allen having a weapon like T.J. Hockenson around him is more impactful to this team taking that next step than adding another great defensive player this year.

 

 

 

 

I really want Hockenson but there are quality TEs in this draft.

 

until this regime places importance on the TE position i just dont see this happening at 9. They really need to as we haven't had a dominant TE in decades.

 

 

[Buffalo716]

He is a fantastic player but the Bills will not select him at #9 overall 

 

there are good tight ends through the first 2-3 rounds.

 

and they will probably have the chance to draft an elite interior rusher / edge rusher  or sleeper ( devin White )

 

 

Edited April 7, 2019 by Buffalo716

[Buffalo Barbarian]

4 minutes ago, Buffalo716 said:

He is a fantastic player but the Bills will not select him at #9 overall 

 

there are good tight ends through the first 2-3 rounds.

 

and they will probably have the chance to draft an elite interior rusher / edge rusher  or sleeper ( devin bush)

 

 

 

I like Bush, but do you think he will go that high ? I was thinking second.

 

 

[Buffalo716]

34 minutes ago, Buffalo Barbarian said:

 

I like Bush, but do you think he will go that high ? I was thinking second.

 

 

I think he is a freak and I don’t say that often.

 

i think he is going top 15 all day. His upside is unreal and he can already ball

 

Although neither him or Milano are prototypical SLBrs a group of Edmunds, Milano and White would instantly be very good with the potential to be elite 

 

He plays like pat willis but with 4.4 speed.. But Willis was much bigger... which shows you how hard White plays 

Edited April 7, 2019 by Buffalo716

[Buffalo Barbarian]

16 minutes ago, Buffalo716 said:

I think he is a freak and I don’t say that often.

 

i think he is going top 15 all day. His upside is unreal and he can already ball

 

Although neither him or Milano are prototypical SLBrs a group of Edmunds, Milano and Bush would instantly be very good with the potential to be elite 

 

He plays like pat willis but with 4.4 speed.. But Willis was much bigger... which shows you how hard bush plays 

 

What about Devin White ?