Hockenson at #9 Change My Mind

[John from Riverside]

1 minute ago, Brianmoorman4jesus said:

I like Croom but I don’t like either of the 2 guys we have enough to not want a #1 TE. I think we have a 2 and a 3 right now.

We also brought in Kroft.....I dont think the bills plan on him riding the bench and he fits that big soft hands target over the middle guy

 

And he blocks

[DrDawkinstein]

1 minute ago, Brianmoorman4jesus said:

I like Croom but I don’t like either of the 2 guys we have enough to not want a #1 TE. I think we have a 2 and a 3 right now.

 

I hear ya, we definitely arent set at the position. But we're better than I keep remembering.

 

Personally, I dont think we should reach for a TE at #9, but I'm all for acquiring one within the first 3 rounds.

[BillsCuse]

Maybe in a trade back, but would rather keep going on the OL.  Have improved but not there yet

[ndirish1978]

Would you rather trade down, pick up Hock and Risner, or have Ed Oliver?

[Over 29 years of fanhood]

20 minutes ago, scribo said:

He is only 6'5". 

 

In the clips I see he looks like a awesome athlete but not dominant size. 

[Bangarang]

19 minutes ago, John from Riverside said:

The thing is its not even middling talent.....this D is pretty much set and we would have 9 more picks.....

 

We really set this D up last year getting Edmunds, Taron Johnson, finding Wallace, etc.

 

If you think our D is set with what we have at d-line then I can’t agree. Hughes is literally our only player that can get to the QB.

[billspro]

Just now, blacklabel said:

There will be more highly valued players on the board at 9. Hockenson seems like he's going to be a good one but he won't be BPA if the Bills stay at 9.

 

He should have a similar grade as some of the top Dline. A good TE would have more value than a DT imo. Our success is all about developing Allen. There will be some really good DTs like Tillery available in round 2. I don’t think there will be a huge drop off in the DT talent from pick 9 to our second round pick. Good chance all three of the top TEs are gone though. 

[John from Riverside]

Just now, Bangarang said:

 

If you think our D is set with what we have at d-line then I can’t agree. Hughes is literally our only player that can get to the QB.

Bang very few teams have pro bowler's at every position.

 

I think you could move Lorax down onto the line and get very good pass rush from that side.......Shaq took a jump last year and is a good edge player

 

And they did bring Ziggie in for a visit....they are obviously not done looking there......you can bet one of those 10 picks is gonna go on a edge rusher

[thebandit27]

1 minute ago, ndirish1978 said:

Would you rather trade down, pick up Hock and Risner, or have Ed Oliver?

 

Ed Oliver and it ain't close.

 

Odds are decent that I can get Risner right where I am in round 2.

[BillsFan1988]

The question is if these guys go before we pk who would u rather have. 

#1 Cards Murray

#2 49ers Bosa 

#3 Jets Allen

#4 Raiders Quinnen 

#5 Bucs Sweat

#6 Giants Oliver

#7 Jags DK

#8 Lions Taylor

 

Now we got Gary, Wilkins or Hock on the board. I got Hock as the best player available.  He's the more sure thing to me out of these 3 players to be a bona-fide game changer at his position.  Let's not forget we are modeling our offense after the Pat's and we are missing that elite TE.

[Call_Of_Ktulu]

36 minutes ago, Brianmoorman4jesus said:

I want the best TE in the draft. I’m all in for it at 9 or any pick that requires what I just said. Im tired of these lower mid tier TEs. In Bills history, we have never had a truly elite TE. I’m talking Kelce, Ertz, Kittle level. Not A guy like Pete Metzalars that was a great BILLS tight end...I want a guy that is great in relation to the rest of the NFL. Not just the C list guys in Bills history. Go out and get the top TE. I don’t mind it at 9.

I will say that if you can hit on a elite TE that it is a huge mismatch nightmare for the other team. Hock looks like he checks all the boxes for being a Elite TE in the NFL. He reminds me of Kelce a lot. 

[blacklabel]

5 minutes ago, billspro said:

 

He should have a similar grade as some of the top Dline. A good TE would have more value than a DT imo. Our success is all about developing Allen. There will be some really good DTs like Tillery available in round 2. I don’t think there will be a huge drop off in the DT talent from pick 9 to our second round pick. Good chance all three of the top TEs are gone though. 

 

I hear what you're saying but DT is a major part of McDermott's defense. They struggled against the run and struggled to generate pressure up the middle last year and that was with Kyle still playing. We know Lotulelei is there to free up the LBs, Jordan Phillips made a couple of nice plays last year and hopefully he'll keep that up. Harrison Phillips seems like he's still acclimating to the game. Beyond those three there's Kyle Peko and Robert Thomas, practice squad/depth guys. I understand only Croom and Kroft are the only TEs but you can find a decent TE in a later round. There are some great DL prospects at the top of this draft and I just can't see them passing on one of those guys in favor of a TE.

[wppete]

At this point I have no idea who I want. 

Maybe one of the top guys drops to us like:

Quentin Williams

josh Allen

Rashan Gary

Nick Bosa

 

whos knows. Or we go:

Hockenson

Metcalf 

Ed Oliver

Jawaan Taylor 

Jonah Williams

Montez Sweat

 

either way we are getting a stud player!!!!! Let’s hope there is a big run on QBs and CBs in the top 10  ? 

[Bangarang]

7 minutes ago, John from Riverside said:

Bang very few teams have pro bowler's at every position.

 

Who is saying you need a PB at every position?

 

Quote

 

I think you could move Lorax down onto the line and get very good pass rush from that side.......Shaq took a jump last year and is a good edge player

 

Shaq is not a pass rusher. He is capable of getting a sack here or there but you’re in trouble if you’re relying on him to get to the QB with any kind of consistency.

 

Quote

 

And they did bring Ziggie in for a visit....they are obviously not done looking there......you can bet one of those 10 picks is gonna go on a edge rusher

 

Our interior leaves a lot to be desired. If I were making the decisions I would take Oliver at 9 if he was available.

Edited March 15, 2019 by Bangarang

[Chuck Wagon]

1 minute ago, thebandit27 said:

 

Ed Oliver and it ain't close.

 

Odds are decent that I can get Risner right where I am in round 2.

 

 

This.

 

IMO #9 is a 5 player spot for us:  Bosa / Quinnen Williams / Allen / Oliver / White. 

 

I could be talked into Sweat but he feels a little "Vernon Gholston-y" to me.  If one of those 5 are on the board, take them.  If all 5 are gone by 9 I can entertain Hock, one of the OTs or a trade down.

[WideNine]

19 minutes ago, N.Y. Orangeman said:

Kahale Waring in the 3rd or 4th is better value.  Great blocker and good upside in the passing game, with tremendous athleticism.

 

I like Hock a lot, but think there are options out there. Probably not as NFL ready as I think Hockenson will be (they do a good job coaching that position at Iowa), but there is talent in this draft.

 

What I don't get are the folks still putting Irv Smith in this discussion. 6' 2" and meh combine numbers. Would not be the guy I would slot as my TE.

 

 

[John from Riverside]

1 minute ago, Bangarang said:

 

Who is saying you need a PB at every position?

 

 

Shaq is not a pass rusher. He is capable

of getting a sack here or there but you’re in trouble if you’re relying on him to get to the QB with any kind of consistency.

 

 

Our interior leaves a lot to be desired. If I were making the decisions I would take Oliver at 9 if he was available.

The prob of Oliver at 9 if he is there is high....anyone who hates that I dont know what they are thinking.

 

I think that our DT situation is in better situation then most think.........I liked the selection of Horrible Harry last year.

[dpberr]

If you like what George Kittle can do, that's why you're likely ok with picking Hockenson at #9.  In order to develop Josh Allen's game, you need to provide him a variety of pass catchers on every pass down.  

 

IMO, what sets him apart, like many TEs from Iowa, is he a football player first, athlete second.  I think that's important when you get to the NFL as everyone is an amazing athlete, the plays are more complicated, the game is faster, etc.  

 

Guys like Nkoju and Ebron are superior athletes who had to learn how to play football to produce in the NFL.  I don't know what happened with Ebron in Indy, but it's like there was a legitimate football epiphany there because he went from catching absolutely nothing to catching everything.   

 

 

[GoBills808]

8 TEs went before Kittle.

 

Eifert went before Ertz.

 

4 TEs picked before Kelce. 

 

In 2012, Colby Fleener was picked at #34 while Dwayne Allen was picked at #64 BY THE SAME TEAM...and neither one ended up being spectacular. Allen is still playing and Fleener is out of football. 

 

It's a total crapshoot drafting TEs imo. Terrible value in the first round, let alone top 10. Hard pass.

[Bangarang]

Just now, John from Riverside said:

The prob of Oliver at 9 if he is there is high....anyone who hates that I dont know what they are thinking.

 

I think the chances he is there is better than you think apparently. If he is it’s a very easy decision for me.

 

Just now, John from Riverside said:

 

I think that our DT situation is in better situation then most think.........I liked the selection of Horrible Harry last year.

 

There’s nothing special or impressive about our DT situation right now. 

[thebandit27]

1 minute ago, billspro said:

 

He should have a similar grade as some of the top Dline. A good TE would have more value than a DT imo. Our success is all about developing Allen. There will be some really good DTs like Tillery available in round 2. I don’t think there will be a huge drop off in the DT talent from pick 9 to our second round pick. Good chance all three of the top TEs are gone though. 

 

Sorry, but I just don't see how that's true.

 

If you look at the numbers, among pass rushers, there were 22 players with 10 or more sacks (I chose 10 because that's generally considered the break point between good and great pass rushers)...and 6 of those were DTs (Donald, Jones, Buckner, Cox, Reed, and Atkins)--3 of them were not only first-round picks, but also the first DT off the board.  2 of the others were 2nd round picks.

 

Contrast that with receiving yards, where 20 players eclipsed the 1,000-yard mark (again, the generally-considered break point between good and great pass-catchers). You'll notice only 3 TEs show up there (Kittle, Kelce, Ertz)--none of them were first-round picks; in fact, only Ertz was higher than a 3rd rounder.

 

There's no doubt in my mind that a good TE will add a lot to the offense, but in comparison to a great pass-rushing DT it'd be a pebble on a mountain.  If I have my choice of where to have an elite talent on my team, the hierarchy would look something like this:

 

QB

EDGE rusher

Interior pass rusher

CB

WR

OT

Everything else

[Alphadawg7]

34 minutes ago, Magnum Force said:

Alpha...you and me both.  I know just like me, you were in the DK camp.  Now I am starting to move in the direction of TJ also.  

 

Yeah, I was singing DK praises all off season and kept telling people he was going to blow up at the combine.  Funny though, I am thinking now it could be TJ before it would be DK despite the fact Beane has clearly made attempts to look at acquiring some stud WR's already.  

 

The main reason for that is I wonder how much DK's low agility scores will impact how Beane and McD see him.  I won't rule DK out though, I mean again Beane clearly is looking for big time weapons for Allen and DK has big time potential, more than any other WR in the draft.  With the signing of Cole and Brown, it actually makes taking DK a little easier because now you have some other guys to take pressure off DK while they work on developing his route tree more and have the underneath weapons to use DK has that big downfield threat.  

 

All that being said, I think Beane and Daboll are going to have a high value on a dynamic TE too and if I had to guess right now, I think Hockenson may be higher on their board than Metcalf, especially with the depth at WR in this draft.  But would not surprise me one bit if they drafted Metcalf in the first. 

 

5 minutes ago, GoBills808 said:

8 TEs went before Kittle.

 

Eifert went before Ertz.

 

4 TEs picked before Kelce. 

 

In 2012, Colby Fleener was picked at #34 while Dwayne Allen was picked at #64 BY THE SAME TEAM...and neither one ended up being spectacular. Allen is still playing and Fleener is out of football. 

 

It's a total crapshoot drafting TEs imo. Terrible value in the first round, let alone top 10. Hard pass.

 

that can be said about every position though

Edited March 15, 2019 by Alphadawg7

[Virgil]

54 minutes ago, CaptnCoke11 said:

You can trade back and get him

 

I’m seeing more and more mocks where him and Fant both go in the top 15. 

 

For whatever that’s worth 

[bkep32]

45 minutes ago, thebandit27 said:

Best argument I have is this: when was the last time that a top-10 TE went on to have a great career?

 

Matter of fact, when was the last time that a 1st-round TE went on to have a great career?

 

Moreover, who are the best TEs in football in the last half-decade? How many of them were 1st-round picks, let alone top-10 picks?

2017: oj howard, evan engram, David njoku all 1st round...i stated this in another thread but TE usually take 2 or 3 years to get acclimated to the NFL.  They need to know the entire online blocking scheme/concepts and run WR route tree.  I'm an Iowa Hawkeye fan I love both TE it's just to much for a 9th pick.  Evan engram was 1st rookie TE in 15 years to top 600 yards and got 722. Love to trade back and get hock but otherwise maybe fant at 40 or georia kid i keep forgetting his name.

[suorangefan4]

6 minutes ago, GoBills808 said:

8 TEs went before Kittle.

 

Eifert went before Ertz.

 

4 TEs picked before Kelce. 

 

In 2012, Colby Fleener was picked at #34 while Dwayne Allen was picked at #64 BY THE SAME TEAM...and neither one ended up being spectacular. Allen is still playing and Fleener is out of football. 

 

It's a total crapshoot drafting TEs imo. Terrible value in the first round, let alone top 10. Hard pass.

 

You could do the same thing for any position.

 

Hockensen would improve both our blocking and pass catching. Iowa is good at developing tight ends so Hockenson looks like a can't miss type player.

Edited March 15, 2019 by suorangefan4

[Teddy KGB]

Or you could pay Jared Cook 

[BBillsWestCoast]

Not my favorite #9 pick, but definitely an option as TE is a QB's best friend.

 

Any top 10 pick needs to be a rare talent or a big man (D or O Line), however I would not be disappointed in TJ as he may be the best Bills TE prospect I recall. I believe that a trade down serves us best. Don't be surprised if we end up with 2 first round picks again via trades. We may trade back and also up from #2. We still need talent.

 

TE's will go on a run, so find the spot. I think it may be GB at pick #12?

 

I like the Giants pick at #17. Trade back and take best available player. If TJ is there grab him, then trade up from 2nd round back into round 1 to grab any of our many other needs.

[John from Riverside]

Would consider

 

Oliver - 9

Risner - 2nd round

Then using later picks to move into the 2nd and 3rd rounds

Fant - 2nd round

Running Back - 3rd round

Wide Receiver - 3rd round

 

Risner might actually start at RT.....but it would be more likely TY would at least start the season.

[Bigantall]

I have a very good buddie of mine who is a alumni of Iowa he says Fant is a much better player than TJ 

Edited March 15, 2019 by Bigantall

[thebandit27]

5 minutes ago, bkep32 said:

2017: oj howard, evan engram, David njoku all 1st round...i stated this in another thread but TE usually take 2 or 3 years to get acclimated to the NFL.  They need to know the entire online blocking scheme/concepts and run WR route tree.  I'm an Iowa Hawkeye fan I love both TE it's just to much for a 9th pick.  Evan engram was 1st rookie TE in 15 years to top 600 yards and got 722. Love to trade back and get hock but otherwise maybe fant at 40 or georia kid i keep forgetting his name.

 

None of those guys has had a great season, let alone look like they're going to have a great career.

 

Moreover, not a single one of them looks worthy of having been a first-round pick IMO

[DJB]

I'll continue to say it.  Hockenson is the only player at 9 who improves the offence and oline with one pick 

3 minutes ago, Bigantall said:

I have a very good buddie of mine who is a alumni of Iowa he says Fant is a much better player than TJ 

 

Then your buddy is evaluating them based off potential fantasy football view.

 

What Hockenson does in the run game, pass blocking is elite and nobody in this draft even comes close

[Buffalo Barbarian]

1 hour ago, Mike in Syracuse said:

I can't stop thinking that I want the Bills to draft Hock at the 9th spot.    I know that's high for a TE but what a fantastic offensive addition he'd be for our young QB.

 

 

 

 

 

i hope so but i think we go Dline, especially when their is good quality TEs in the draft like, Irv Smith, Jace Sternberger and Isaac Nauta.

 

 

[billspro]

4 minutes ago, thebandit27 said:

 

Sorry, but I just don't see how that's true.

 

If you look at the numbers, among pass rushers, there were 22 players with 10 or more sacks (I chose 10 because that's generally considered the break point between good and great pass rushers)...and 6 of those were DTs (Donald, Jones, Buckner, Cox, Reed, and Atkins)--3 of them were not only first-round picks, but also the first DT off the board.  2 of the others were 2nd round picks.

 

Contrast that with receiving yards, where 20 players eclipsed the 1,000-yard mark (again, the generally-considered break point between good and great pass-catchers). You'll notice only 3 TEs show up there (Kittle, Kelce, Ertz)--none of them were first-round picks; in fact, only Ertz was higher than a 3rd rounder.

 

There's no doubt in my mind that a good TE will add a lot to the offense, but in comparison to a great pass-rushing DT it'd be a pebble on a mountain.  If I have my choice of where to have an elite talent on my team, the hierarchy would look something like this:

 

QB

EDGE rusher

Interior pass rusher

CB

WR

OT

Everything else

 

There are definitely lots of ways to build a team and I know you know football, you have tons of good takes on here. I would love to have interior pass rush but you don’t need it to build a good defence. I don’t believe any of those guys played on a top 5 D last year. The Bills were ranked 2nd with very little interior pash rush last year. Pats won the Super Bowl with pretty basic DTs. Almost all of the playoff teams have a good TE. I value offence much higher than defence though and I know there are other ways to build a championship team.

 

My positional rankings would be:

 

QB

OT

CB

C

Edge

TE 

LB

G

DT 

WR

S

RB

 

Although, I think all positions are important. 

[GoBills808]

Just now, suorangefan4 said:

 

You could do the same thing for any position.

 

Hockensen would improve both our blocking and pass catching. Iowa is good at developing tight ends so Hockenson looks like a can't miss type player.

 

2 minutes ago, Alphadawg7 said:

that can be said about every position though

 

True, the point being that TE is a position of relative unimportance to your team's offensive production overall, so whereas a QB or DE impacts the game in such a way that missing on those positions in the first round is worth the risk, TE does not and is not. For example- best TE in the game by far was Kittle: he played in an average offense. Kelce is a great TE in a great offense, but Jared Cook was a good TE in a bad one. Ertz is a good TE in a mediocre offense. Gerald Everett is a below average TE in a great offense. Watson is an average/below average TE in a very good offense. Evan Engram and Jordan Reed, two guys I like and think are above average/good TEs, played in middling to bad offenses respectively (although both had injury issues this season). 

 

I see no correlation between the quality of your tight end and the quality of your offense, so unlike other positions where the risk of missing on your pick is outweighed by the value they bring to their unit (QB, DE, CB, DT, maaaybe LB/OT) the value is not there in the first round for tight ends imo. Certainly not with a top 10 pick.

[WideNine]

44 minutes ago, DrDawkinstein said:

 

Croom was looking pretty decent last year until the injury. I keep forgetting about him.

 

Croom fits that slot TE roll. Don't see him as the 3 down option. 

 

Kroft is serviceable and a better blocker.

 

I still see room for one guy to groom to replace and/or backup the position, but my gut tells me that would be a later round move for the Bills.

 

 

 

[CEN-CAL17]

1 hour ago, CaptnCoke11 said:

You can trade back and get him

Really cause there are a lot of analysts that think he may go 7 to Jax or 8 to Detroit....

 

We have Shady under contract for 1 more year, Gore for 1 year.  Josh Jacobs May be BPA for many reasons. #1 RB, knows the system, 5’11” 220lbs, great hands, quick, physical, low wear and tear, Look how Barkley and Kamara have helped those teams the last 2 years. Can we trust Shady and Gore to stay healthy?

 

Right now, I’m thinking TJ, Jacobs, OT, DE..... Oliver would be hard to pass up as well.

[Alphadawg7]

11 minutes ago, GoBills808 said:

 

 

True, the point being that TE is a position of relative unimportance to your team's offensive production overall, so whereas a QB or DE impacts the game in such a way that missing on those positions in the first round is worth the risk, TE does not and is not. For example- best TE in the game by far was Kittle: he played in an average offense. Kelce is a great TE in a great offense, but Jared Cook was a good TE in a bad one. Ertz is a good TE in a mediocre offense. Gerald Everett is a below average TE in a great offense. Watson is an average/below average TE in a very good offense. Evan Engram and Jordan Reed, two guys I like and think are above average/good TEs, played in middling to bad offenses respectively (although both had injury issues this season). 

 

I see no correlation between the quality of your tight end and the quality of your offense, so unlike other positions where the risk of missing on your pick is outweighed by the value they bring to their unit (QB, DE, CB, DT, maaaybe LB/OT) the value is not there in the first round for tight ends imo. Certainly not with a top 10 pick.

 

No disrespect, but you are severely under estimating the value of some of those guys to their teams.  Its not really fair to put the teams situation on the back of the TE and say the TE isnt important because their teams didnt win more.

 

No way Mahomes has remotely as good a year without Kelce, and it was an EDGE rusher bone head play for KC that cost them a SB birth, not Kelce.  Ertz was a HUGE reason the Eagles had a great year and went on to win the SB still even after losing their starting QB.  Pats have managed to win SB's with Gronk being their most talented receiving weapon.  

 

I can name a bunch of talented pass rushers on bad teams too, doesn't devalue the pass rusher.  I can name elite corners on bad teams.  I can name elite QBs on bad teams.  I can name elite OL on bad teams.  I can name elite RB's on bad teams.  And so on and so on.  None of that devalues what a given player can be to a team though.  

 

Ravens do not win the SB with Trent Dilfer without having Shannon Sharp for instance.  Does that mean every team would win the SB with Shannon Sharp on its roster...not at all.  Means he was an incredibly valuable piece to that team and how it was built.  Chiefs do not get within one play of the SB had Kelce not been on that roster.  He is was almost unguardable and opened up the passing game for Mahomes, the other receivers, and even the RBs.  You cant cover everyone.  Eagles offense would be below average without Ertz, yet they won the SB with a journeyman QB a little over a year ago.  

 

TE can be a young QB's best friend, especially if they are a receiving weapon and a quality blocker.  Especially in todays NFL.  The TE position is one that has become much more valuable over the last 5 years and its not going away anytime soon.  

Edited March 15, 2019 by Alphadawg7

[KauaiBuffaloSports]

15 minutes ago, Bigantall said:

I have a very good buddie of mine who is a alumni of Iowa he says Fant is a much better player than TJ 

 

I would not be upset if we went with Hock at 9 but I am weary. TJ rose up the boards after the combine because of his workout times which always scares me. Fant is the player that I would prefer because he has proven himself on the field. If DK and TJ are both examples of guys who shoot up the board because of their athleticism, not their production on the field. Give me a DL at 9

[Magnum Force]

This is a tough one...because when I look at Hockenson…..I am envisioning Gronk….even his nickname will be similar  Hock....but there have been a lot of TE busts taken in the 1st round and I think of Jeremey Shockey as the one big one.  This draft has me all over the place in who I want at 9. 

[suorangefan4]

2 minutes ago, KauaiBuffaloSports said:

 

I would not be upset if we went with Hock at 9 but I am weary. TJ rose up the boards after the combine because of his workout times which always scares me. Fant is the player that I would prefer because he has proven himself on the field. If DK and TJ are both examples of guys who shoot up the board because of their athleticism, not their production on the field. Give me a DL at 9

 

Hockenson had better production than Fant...