WR John Brown (Ravens) to the Bills

[GoBills808]

1 minute ago, C.Biscuit97 said:

I think he is a very inconsistent receiver . Talented for sure but he is on his 3rd team in 5 years.  

 

Again, I’d rather have more weapons than less so I’m fine with it. Even if it’s an overpay  

But he averages more yards per season than Edelman! 

[C.Biscuit97]

1 minute ago, GoBills808 said:

But he averages more yards per season than Edelman! 

Those 34 and 68 yard season certainly Hurt PEDlman’s average!

[KingRex]

3 minutes ago, dave mcbride said:

I'd add that deep threats are by nature inconsistent. One week they have 4 catches for 147 yards and 2 TDs, and the next they have 1 catch for 11 yards. It balances out into a 1000 yard season and ypc of 17 or so. But on their big days, they can win games for you -- which is something that a player like Zay Jones simply cannot do ever.

exactly!  If used properly (down and distance situations where we might run or we might pass to do positive things that play) and to complement the other players used (likely a quality route runner or another outside speed threat on the other wing), Brown's biggest contribution may be to the run game.

 

Sure Brown may have enough of the droppsies the Bills O should not depend on him to catch every pass for a TD.  However, if when he takes the field if he demands an over and under dt because of his speed threat and the opposing D is forced into a nickel D (or even a dime if Brown is flanked with another WR demanding a dt then McCoy/Gore get to run against safeties in a nickel or dime rather than run through LBs.

 

Even if he is an inconsistent producer opposing Ds are forced to play 2 deep or a zone and Allen faces fewer blindside corner blitzes as opposing CBs play off the line or immediately back-up to account for Brown speed.

 

Ironically he may never carry the rock but his primary contribution maybe to run production we make good playcalls and deploy the right packages.

[Mr. WEO]

Can’t teach speed.....amirite?!

[KingRex]

4 minutes ago, MOVALLEYRANDY said:

 Josh will need some time to throw the ball don't cha know, So yeah I certainly hope AT LEAST two OL are drafted. Also, hope they don't wait until the 5th round to start thinking about the most important position group on a team.

Speed receivers which force opposing CBs to cover deep rather than surprise blitz or that force opposing Ds to use dt safeties rather than pass rushing LB may help Allen avoid sacks more than a rookie lineman

[KGun12TD]

Why the heck would we want a speedy WR with a strong armed QB? Why? OMG the sky is falling.

[dave mcbride]

16 minutes ago, DCOrange said:

 

It was 14-0 at half and Flacco still threw it almost 40 times.

The next week he had 7 catches for 130+ yards. There are games that you adjust the basic gameplan given who the opponent is, and there is also the early blowout factor. Why try any risky plays when you hold the opposing offense to 106 total yards and sack Marcus Mariota 11 times?

[BillsCelticsAngelsBama]

1 minute ago, KingRex said:

Speed receivers which force opposing CBs to cover deep rather than surprise blitz or that force opposing Ds to use dt safeties rather than pass rushing LB may help Allen avoid sacks more than a rookie lineman

Good point.

[YoloinOhio]

 

[Augie]

1 hour ago, Joe in Winslow said:

 

this guy^

 

Somebody didn’t get hugged enough. 

[N.Y. Orangeman]

Beasley signing >>>> Brown signing 

 

IMHO....

[VW82]

44 minutes ago, matter2003 said:

He averages 17+ yards a catch and is a serious speedster running a 4.34...pretty sure he can get open. Him and Foster are gonna cause issues for defenses having to defend deep and then Zay and Beasley will have room to work underneath...

 

Don't look at these signings individually look at what it does to the defenses...they have to back off because now we 2 threats outside to score on any given play. That leaves more room to be exploited underneath. When teams then try and come up and take away the underneath stuff then we hurt them deep.

 

This is basically putting the D in a no win situation.

 

Again, yes he's fast but it sure looked to me like he doesn't get open very often, and when he does he has a tendency to drop the ball. If all you can do is run verticals opposing defenses will sit on that. Maybe I'm being too hard on him. His catch percentage is just awful though which jives with what I'm seeing when I watch him play. Even fast receivers need to be able to run a full route tree to keep you honest. 

Edited March 12, 2019 by VW82

[HeHateMe]

1 hour ago, Virgil said:

 

Then why are they letting him go and why is he taking 9 mil when players like Funchess are getting more?

 

His production trailed off with Flacco. The fans, local radio, all talked about him fizzling. Nothing to do with Jackson. 

 

And I’m on my phone. Is that a key pad?

He had 7 REC for 134 and 1 TD in the 2nd to last game he played with Flacco.  What are you on about?  You are clueless and should stop posting.

[Rc2catch]

Just now, HeHateMe said:

He had 7 REC for 134 and 1 TD in the 2nd to last game he played with Flacco.  What are you on about?  You are clueless and should stop posting.

Lol you can lead the horse to water... 

 

Common issue on here when people like certain players, and bash anyone else brought in. Draft time is worse than free agency ??

[Bleeding Bills Blue]

2 minutes ago, VW82 said:

 

Again, yes he's fast but it sure looked to me like he doesn't get open very often, and when he does he has a tendency to drop the ball. If all you can do is run verticals opposing defenses will sit on that. Maybe I'm being too hard on him. His catch percentage is just awful though which jives with what I'm seeing when I watch him play. Even fast receivers need to be able to run a full route tree to keep you honest. 

 

I do think that he struggled with the switch to jackson.  Offense changed considerably.

[ngbills]

Antonio Brown or Beasley/Brown?

[VW82]

2 minutes ago, dneveu said:

 

I do think that he struggled with the switch to jackson.  Offense changed considerably.

 

Yeah but his catch percentage has been bad every year he's been in the league except for his sophomore season. He had several high target, low catch games earlier inthe year too. I suspect Bills think some of this has to do with the bad to terrible QB play he's had to deal with over the years, but some of it is certainly on Brown. Hopefully he's better in Buffalo. 

[Magox]

1 minute ago, ngbills said:

Antonio Brown or Beasley/Brown?

Antonio Brown signed for around $19M I think.  These guys signed for $16.5M.

 

Plus Antonio Brown is a potential headache with great production who is 31 years old.

 

Plus, This is an average salary of less than 50% of his so you are able to lock up two solid contributors for the price of less than AB.

 

Plus no draft choices had to be given out.

 

Given their youth, that they are 2 solid players who will most likely be part of the starting 3 at the very least starting 4 and not having to deal with the headache that comes along with AB and not giving up any draft choices that comes in slightly cheaper than AB......

 

Definitely Beasley/Brown

[dave mcbride]

Just now, VW82 said:

 

Yeah but his catch percentage has been bad every year he's been in the league except for his sophomore season. He had several high target, low catch games earlier inthe year too. I suspect Bills think some of this has to do with the bad to terrible QB play he's had to deal with over the years, but some of it is certainly on Brown. Hopefully he's better in Buffalo. 

Catch percentages for deep threats are always lower than everyone else's. Most QBs aren't particularly accurate on 40+ yard throws. 

10 minutes ago, HeHateMe said:

He had 7 REC for 134 and 1 TD in the 2nd to last game he played with Flacco.  What are you on about?  You are clueless and should stop posting.

He had 7 catches on 7 targets in that game too. 

[Ridgewaycynic2013]

1 hour ago, liverpoolkev said:

Boy I wish we had anoher GM

Yeah, right about now I am missing Cornpone’s homespun homilies...?

Edited March 12, 2019 by Ridgewaycynic2013

[VW82]

19 minutes ago, dave mcbride said:

Catch percentages for deep threats are always lower than everyone else's. Most QBs aren't particularly accurate on 40+ yard throws. 

He had 7 catches on 7 targets in that game too. 

 

Yes but his catch percentage is terrible even considering he's running a fair share of deep routes. If we just look at last year for receivers with at least 50 targets and a YPC greater than 12 (to rule out guys working mostly underneath), Brown ranked 54th out of 55 receivers @ 43.3%. The only guy worse than that was KB. In 2017 Brown was dead last in catch percentage using those same criteria. 

 

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/play-index/psl_finder.cgi?request=1&match=single&year_min=2018&year_max=2018&season_start=1&season_end=-1&pos[]=wr&draft_year_min=1936&draft_year_max=2018&draft_slot_min=1&draft_slot_max=500&draft_pick_in_round=pick_overall&conference=any&draft_pos[]=qb&draft_pos[]=rb&draft_pos[]=wr&draft_pos[]=te&draft_pos[]=e&draft_pos[]=t&draft_pos[]=g&draft_pos[]=c&draft_pos[]=ol&draft_pos[]=dt&draft_pos[]=de&draft_pos[]=dl&draft_pos[]=ilb&draft_pos[]=olb&draft_pos[]=lb&draft_pos[]=cb&draft_pos[]=s&draft_pos[]=db&draft_pos[]=k&draft_pos[]=p&c1stat=targets&c1comp=gt&c1val=50&c2stat=rec_yds_per_rec&c2comp=gt&c2val=12&c5val=1.0&order_by=catch_pct 

Edited March 12, 2019 by VW82

[freddyjj]

23 minutes ago, ngbills said:

Antonio Brown or Beasley/Brown?

i will take her thx

 

 

https://www.bgky.org/city-commission/dana-beasley-brown

 

 

[MAJBobby]

What’s Interetsting and I will find the Tweet. But someone asked agent contact of him his any of his WRs has Bills interested. The Agents statement is my clients are not fast enough. Here it is. 

 

NFL Draft Diamonds (@DraftDiamonds)

3/12/19, 1:31 PM Yesterday I talked with an agent to see if he had any wide receivers that had interest from Buffalo. He responded to me they’re not fast enough. I get it now!!!

Edited March 12, 2019 by MAJBobby

[dave mcbride]

4 minutes ago, VW82 said:

 

Yes but his catch percentage is terrible even considering he's running a fair share of deep routes. If we just look at last year for receivers with at least 50 targets and a YPC greater than 12 (to rule out guys working mostly underneath), Brown ranked 54th out of 55 receivers @ 43.3%. The only guy worse than that was KB. In 2017 Brown was dead last in catch percentage using those same criteria. 

 

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/play-index/psl_finder.cgi?request=1&match=single&year_min=2018&year_max=2018&season_start=1&season_end=-1&pos[]=wr&draft_year_min=1936&draft_year_max=2018&draft_slot_min=1&draft_slot_max=500&draft_pick_in_round=pick_overall&conference=any&draft_pos[]=qb&draft_pos[]=rb&draft_pos[]=wr&draft_pos[]=te&draft_pos[]=e&draft_pos[]=t&draft_pos[]=g&draft_pos[]=c&draft_pos[]=ol&draft_pos[]=dt&draft_pos[]=de&draft_pos[]=dl&draft_pos[]=ilb&draft_pos[]=olb&draft_pos[]=lb&draft_pos[]=cb&draft_pos[]=s&draft_pos[]=db&draft_pos[]=k&draft_pos[]=p&c1stat=targets&c1comp=gt&c1val=50&c2stat=rec_yds_per_rec&c2comp=gt&c2val=12&c5val=1.0&order_by=catch_pct 

He caught over 50 percent of his passes when Flacco was the QB. He caught roughly 30 percent when Jackson was the QB. 

[VW82]

9 minutes ago, dave mcbride said:

He caught over 50 percent of his passes when Flacco was the QB. He caught roughly 30 percent when Jackson was the QB. 

 

His catch percentage with Flacco was 53% which would have put him 40th out of 55 deep threat receivers. Not great. How do you explain the two years prior? He was 48th in 2016 and dead last in 2017 with Carson Palmer. 

 

Again, some of it can be explained by bad QB play but there's a lot of evidence, including what you see when you watch him play, that he's just not great at getting open or catching the football. 

Edited March 12, 2019 by VW82

[Fixxxer]

2 hours ago, buffaloaggie said:

Brown is not a slot. Why are you comparing Humphries fit with Allen to Brown? Maybe compare Beasley.

 

I didn't think we would go after another WR in FA. That's why I thought Brown was a better fit. Good for Beane going after Beasley as well, he was a chain mover for Dak Prescott and the Cowboys.

[dave mcbride]

1 minute ago, VW82 said:

 

His catch percentage with Flacco was 53% which would have put him 40th out of 55 deep threat receivers. Not great. How do you explain the two years prior? He was 48th in 2016 and dead last in 2017 with Carson Palmer. 

 

Again, some of it can be explained by bad QB play but there's a lot of evidence, including what you see when you watch him play, that he's just not great at getting open or catching the football. 

53 percent with an 18.9 ypc rate is actually *good*.  The only one who matched that ypr was DeSean Jackson at 18.88, and he had a 55.4 percent catch rate. 

[dave mcbride]

12 minutes ago, VW82 said:

 

His catch percentage with Flacco was 53% which would have put him 40th out of 55 deep threat receivers. Not great. How do you explain the two years prior? He was 48th in 2016 and dead last in 2017 with Carson Palmer. 

 

Again, some of it can be explained by bad QB play but there's a lot of evidence, including what you see when you watch him play, that he's just not great at getting open or catching the football. 

For GENUINE home run threats (i.e., yards-per-catch averages of 16.5 or greater), note the catch percentages of the leaders in a couple of recent seasons: https://www.pro-football-reference.com/years/2017/receiving.htm#receiving::11 ; https://www.pro-football-reference.com/years/2015/receiving.htm#receiving::11 .

Edited March 12, 2019 by dave mcbride

[The Senator]

2 hours ago, RiotAct said:

 

 raided Harper’s Ferry, now playing receiver for the Buffalo Bills!

 

But didn’t his baby have a cold or something?

.

[dave mcbride]

2 hours ago, RiotAct said:

 

 raided Harper’s Ferry, now playing receiver for the Buffalo Bills!

Has he sold the Braves yet, however? 

[VW82]

8 minutes ago, dave mcbride said:

For GENUINE home run threats (i.e., yards-per-catch averages of 16.5 or greater), note the catch percentages of the leaders in a couple of recent seasons: https://www.pro-football-reference.com/years/2017/receiving.htm#receiving::11 ; https://www.pro-football-reference.com/years/2015/receiving.htm#receiving::11 .

 

His only YPC season > 16.5 was last year. Previously he'd been in the 13-15 range. Also, he didn't even qualify on that list. Either way, he's still on the low end for catch percentage as most of those deep threats are in the 55-65% range, with the elite guys above 70%. Brown has been low 40s to low 50s with the exception of two outlier seasons - one good, one bad.  

[dave mcbride]

9 minutes ago, VW82 said:

 

His only YPC season > 16.5 was last year. Previously he'd been in the 13-15 range. Also, he didn't even qualify on that list. Either way, he's still on the low end for catch percentage as most of those deep threats are in the 55-65% range, with the elite guys above 70%. Brown has been low 40s to low 50s with the exception of two outlier seasons - one good, one bad.  

In the two links I sent, only 2 out of 14 receivers average 16.5 yards plus averaged in the 60s. Regardless, it really doesn't matter; deep throws are a bit of a crap shoot given the distance involved. What matters is having a guy who can beat guys deep and haul it in with some regularity. He can CERTAINLY do that--he is friggin' fast and still in his prime. No one is saying he's the second coming of Cliff Branch or Bob Warfield. He is, however, a legit NFL deep threat in his prime who can blow past guys deep. That does a lot for an offense. His performance in 2015 is one of the reasons Arizona had the #1 offense in the NFL. 

[boater]

PTSD alert for us ancients: I haven't forgiven John Y Brown since he moved the Braves out of town.

[SoCal Deek]

So we’re done at WR ...right?

[VW82]

1 minute ago, dave mcbride said:

In the two links I sent, only 2 out of 14 receivers average 16.5 yards plus averaged in the 60s. Regardless, it really doesn't matter; deep throws are a bit of a crap shoot given the distance involved. What matters is having a guy who can beat guys deep and haul it in with some regularity. He can CERTAINLY do that--he is friggin' fast and still in his prime. No one is saying he's the second coming of Cliff Branch or Bob Warfield. He is, however, a legit NFL deep threat in his prime who can blow past guys deep. That does a lot for an offense. His performance in 2015 is one of the reasons Arizona had the #1 offense in the NFL. 

 

His 2015 performance is definitely cause for hope. I personally think it had more to do with Larry's one last HOF season and Palmer playing like an MVP. That offense was incredible. You can't take away Brown's production though, and there's no denying he's got wheels. Hopefully he'll continue to improve and get the drops under control. 

[Foxx]

8 minutes ago, dave mcbride said:

In the two links I sent, only 2 out of 14 receivers average 16.5 yards plus averaged in the 60s. Regardless, it really doesn't matter; deep throws are a bit of a crap shoot given the distance involved. What matters is having a guy who can beat guys deep and haul it in with some regularity. He can CERTAINLY do that--he is friggin' fast and still in his prime. No one is saying he's the second coming of Cliff Branch or Bob Warfield. He is, however, a legit NFL deep threat in his prime who can blow past guys deep. That does a lot for an offense. His performance in 2015 is one of the reasons Arizona had the #1 offense in the NFL. 

right. not to be forgotten is what just the speed aspect alone will do for the entire offense. when you make a D have to defend every square foot of a field, that opens up a lot of opportunity for other areas.

Edited March 12, 2019 by Foxx

[C.Biscuit97]

6 minutes ago, SoCal Deek said:

So we’re done at WR ...right?

I pray we aren’t.  The guys were signed are 3s on a good team. I want to have a good team one day. 

[dave mcbride]

20 minutes ago, C.Biscuit97 said:

I pray we aren’t.  The guys were signed are 3s on a good team. I want to have a good team one day. 

Foster looks to be a genuinely good player: good hands, and really, really fast. 

Edited March 12, 2019 by dave mcbride

[Reed83HOF]

 

[Reed83HOF]