YodaMan79 Posted January 25, 2019 Share Posted January 25, 2019 (edited) The 2017 RB draft class looks to be one for the ages. It begs the question, why would you wants the Bills to tie up large money in a FA or McCoy? The way the front office has been able to grab talent and value in the later rounds leads me to believe they could find really good RBs from Rd 3 on. I grabbed this from Bill Barnwell of ESPN. I didn't realize how great this class really was. Carson in the 7th? Wow. Edited January 25, 2019 by YodaMan79 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Virgil Posted January 25, 2019 Share Posted January 25, 2019 I think we’ve all learned in the past few years that it isn’t as simple as just having a solid runningback. It’s about your offensive line, your scheme, your respectable passing game. Even the list you just posted only shows a 50% success rate in the first 3 rounds. That’s not a good thing. Teams shouldn’t pay for a guy who is aging or doesn’t fit their scheme. But if you have a guy who you know is good, fits your scheme, younger that 27, I think you absolutely pay him. We went through a phase of runningback by committee and some teams still do. It’s what keeps players like Kamara fresh. But they also are going to pay him when it’s time. He’s changed their offense. Someone like Bell, if he were 2 years younger and didn’t have suspension issues? I think he absolutely gets the 17 mil he’s looking for. End result, it’s not cut and dry about the position. 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cash Posted January 25, 2019 Share Posted January 25, 2019 What if we draft the next Samaje Perine or Jeremy McNichols? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eball Posted January 25, 2019 Share Posted January 25, 2019 Stop worrying about whether or not the Bills keep Shady next season -- his cap number is already figured in and they still have tons of money. Whether they keep him will depend solely -- as it should -- upon his perceived talent and value to the team. 6 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KD in CA Posted January 25, 2019 Share Posted January 25, 2019 Unless you are getting OJ Simpson level 'can't miss' talent, drafting a RB in the first round is a huge mistake. Let's hope the Bills are so scared from the lost decade of drafting where they did this three times that they never do it again. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mannc Posted January 25, 2019 Share Posted January 25, 2019 4 minutes ago, Virgil said: Even the list you just posted only shows a 50% success rate in the first 3 rounds. That’s not a good thing. Umm, no. The list in the OP would indicate a 100% success rate in first three rounds (Fournette was a terrible pick at 4 overall, but he's certainly a good back), and in fact all of the first 10 RBs selected have turned out to be good to great. And even the ones selected after that have a high success rate. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CommonCents Posted January 25, 2019 Share Posted January 25, 2019 2 minutes ago, Cash said: What if we draft the next Samaje Perine or Jeremy McNichols? That goes for every position, doesn’t it? Beane has been good in the draft and RB is the easiest position to evaluate. I’m confident he can improve the backfield. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaBillsFanSince1973 Posted January 25, 2019 Share Posted January 25, 2019 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Now Moment Posted January 25, 2019 Share Posted January 25, 2019 There's a difference between a great back and an elite back when the offensive line is in place. It very rarely all comes together though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
formerlyofCtown Posted January 25, 2019 Share Posted January 25, 2019 4 minutes ago, KD in CA said: Unless you are getting OJ Simpson level 'can't miss' talent, drafting a RB in the first round is a huge mistake. Let's hope the Bills are so scared from the lost decade of drafting where they did this three times that they never do it again. Shoulda kept Lynch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
YodaMan79 Posted January 25, 2019 Author Share Posted January 25, 2019 Agreed (Virgil). I'd like the Bills to benefit by finding a solid upper tier RB in the draft and not over pay. Have the skill players and line develop together. If they're a stud, pay market value to keep your own, when the time comes. I really like round 3 obviously, but Mack, Cohen and Carson after is really good... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
C.Biscuit97 Posted January 25, 2019 Share Posted January 25, 2019 5 minutes ago, KD in CA said: Unless you are getting OJ Simpson level 'can't miss' talent, drafting a RB in the first round is a huge mistake. Let's hope the Bills are so scared from the lost decade of drafting where they did this three times that they never do it again. And don’t pay them big money. I might be alone but I do think the Giants made the right choice with Barkley because I think he has HOF talent. If they can get a good qb prospect this year, they will be loaded on offense. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buffalo Barbarian Posted January 25, 2019 Share Posted January 25, 2019 10 minutes ago, DaBillsFanSince1973 said: One heads up? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
YodaMan79 Posted January 25, 2019 Author Share Posted January 25, 2019 8 minutes ago, C.Biscuit97 said: And don’t pay them big money. I might be alone but I do think the Giants made the right choice with Barkley because I think he has HOF talent. If they can get a good qb prospect this year, they will be loaded on offense. They're getting hammered due to the trend of loading up on FA while your QB is on his rookie deal. 25-30 million is going to be the cap rate for a competent QB, while elite RBs 12-15 million. Giants will catch the same heat as Bills fans were dishing on the 2017 draft, before JA showed the goods, if they can't find a future QB. But I agree in the sense you don't pass on a HOF talent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctk232 Posted January 25, 2019 Share Posted January 25, 2019 (edited) For the same reasons QBs are over-valued, RBs are the inversely proportionate positions in terms of NFL draft value at present. RB talent is there in the 3rd and 4th rounds, but I still don't feel that RB is as high a priority for the FO at the moment. If a scenario presents itself, then maybe, but the low cost and risk for the highest potential comes from drafting an RB. Looking at our current roster and the guys that will be demanding contracts in the next two years, it would make the most sense to find our RB replacement through the draft rather than overpaying in FA. But we first need the OL - even the most average or solid RBs can become newsworthy or stout backs with a consistent and effective OL and blocking scheme. Edited January 25, 2019 by ctk232 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hapless Bills Fan Posted January 25, 2019 Share Posted January 25, 2019 30 minutes ago, Virgil said: I think we’ve all learned in the past few years that it isn’t as simple as just having a solid runningback. It’s about your offensive line, your scheme, your respectable passing game. Even the list you just posted only shows a 50% success rate in the first 3 rounds. That’s not a good thing. Teams shouldn’t pay for a guy who is aging or doesn’t fit their scheme. But if you have a guy who you know is good, fits your scheme, younger that 27, I think you absolutely pay him. We went through a phase of runningback by committee and some teams still do. It’s what keeps players like Kamara fresh. But they also are going to pay him when it’s time. He’s changed their offense. Someone like Bell, if he were 2 years younger and didn’t have suspension issues? I think he absolutely gets the 17 mil he’s looking for. End result, it’s not cut and dry about the position. This isn't directly your point, but it's relevant. People always talk as though drafting a great college athlete is a sure bet for success in the pro's. It's not. Overall, the 1st round is something like 50% and 2nd and 3rd round 30% - not to get a star, just to get a capable quality NFL player. I'm not saying "pay McCoy", or "draft a guy high in the 1st", just pointing out that it may not be so easy as "draft and use" One thing is certain sure, if the QB is a bona-fide passing threat and the OL is solid at run blocking, the chances of RB success go way up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ridgewaycynic2013 Posted January 25, 2019 Share Posted January 25, 2019 22 minutes ago, DaBillsFanSince1973 said: FDR is facing left. Obvious proof that he was a guddam commie. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Seasons1992 Posted January 25, 2019 Share Posted January 25, 2019 28 minutes ago, KD in CA said: Unless you are getting OJ Simpson level 'can't miss' talent, drafting a RB in the first round is a huge mistake. I'm here, I'm here! Sorry for being late...... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doc Posted January 25, 2019 Share Posted January 25, 2019 You can get a good RB (or player) anywhere in the draft. The hard part is finding him. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
YodaMan79 Posted January 25, 2019 Author Share Posted January 25, 2019 4 minutes ago, Doc said: You can get a good RB (or player) anywhere in the draft. The hard part is finding him. With very hight % hit rate for RB in Rds 2-4. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mannc Posted January 25, 2019 Share Posted January 25, 2019 5 minutes ago, Doc said: You can get a good RB (or player) anywhere in the draft. The hard part is finding him. Except, as the OP shows, it ain't that hard, at least in the first four rounds or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doc Posted January 25, 2019 Share Posted January 25, 2019 The link didn't work for me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stuvian Posted January 25, 2019 Share Posted January 25, 2019 is the 2017 RB class that great or is today's tackling that lousy? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaBillsFanSince1973 Posted January 25, 2019 Share Posted January 25, 2019 38 minutes ago, Buffalo Barbarian said: One heads up? must be the hof'er 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doc Posted January 25, 2019 Share Posted January 25, 2019 The 2017 draft class is more of an anomaly and still had a 50% hit rate. Although I'd argue that Mixon would have been a 1st rounder if not for his college trangression. But the Bills weren't going to take a RB within the 1st 4 rounds given Shady's excellent 2016 season. Again finding a good player outside the first couple rounds is more luck than anything else. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KD in CA Posted January 25, 2019 Share Posted January 25, 2019 59 minutes ago, C.Biscuit97 said: And don’t pay them big money. I might be alone but I do think the Giants made the right choice with Barkley because I think he has HOF talent. If they can get a good qb prospect this year, they will be loaded on offense. I thought they should have gone QB since they were so high in the draft order. It might work out for them if they can land their guy this year, but if they miss they could be in no-QB purgatory for a long time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
apuszczalowski Posted January 25, 2019 Share Posted January 25, 2019 1 hour ago, KD in CA said: Unless you are getting OJ Simpson level 'can't miss' talent, drafting a RB in the first round is a huge mistake. Let's hope the Bills are so scared from the lost decade of drafting where they did this three times that they never do it again. The Bill's problem wasnt that they drafted RBs in those drafts. They ended up getting very good players, the problem was they didnt keep them around and let them walk (or traded them) away when it came time to pay. It's not like they drafted guys that were complete busts with those picks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mjt328 Posted January 25, 2019 Share Posted January 25, 2019 I agree that it's very unwise to pay Running Backs big money in Free Agency. But not just because of the draft, or how successful teams are finding them in the mid-late rounds. The main reason is that FA running backs are already close to passing - or have already passed - their prime. The average Free Agent running back is 25-26 years old, and already has LOTS of wear and tear. We are usually talking 2 years of heavy college usage, along with 3-4 years of heavy usage in the pros. Numerous studies have been done on this, and have shown RBs peak around 24 years old and start declining around 28 years old. And in most cases, it's not a gradual process. A team doesn't get warning signs, so they can have a younger replacement ready to step in. It's usually a sudden drop-off (like we got with Shady this year), where you are counting on the guy to produce and he just can't anymore. By my count, there are only THREE starting RBs in the NFL who were obtained in Free Agency. Adrian Peterson, Frank Gore and Lamar Miller. You can bump the number to FIVE if you toss in LeSean McCoy and Marshawn Lynch - who were technically obtained through trades. Either way, all of these veteran guys have seen better days. Pretty much every other team is relying on younger guys, still on their rookie contracts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buffaloboyinATL Posted January 25, 2019 Share Posted January 25, 2019 Aaron Jones late in the 5th round. Wow, that is a good group of RB's. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gobills1212 Posted January 25, 2019 Share Posted January 25, 2019 People like signing players theyve heard of. Double down with a big name giving buffalo some attention and notariaty and bingo - a popluar move. Many fans know or think better, but casual fans eat that up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nextmanup Posted January 25, 2019 Share Posted January 25, 2019 Talented runners with some decent blocking in front of them are a dime a dozen at this level. You can always just magically find one that is good enough. Should not be something a team invests in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
freddyjj Posted January 25, 2019 Share Posted January 25, 2019 Agree with OP. As pro game adds more RPO, single cut runs the running game looks more and more like college and the ability to plug and play a rookie with a proven RPO background is increased. Pass pro and receiving are skills that must be assessed to project 3 down capability. I believe that RB is the easiest position to start a rookie at. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rc2catch Posted January 25, 2019 Share Posted January 25, 2019 I see zero harm in keeping McCoy and letting him finish out his contract year. With that said they do need to add some talent to the position and they could easily grab a decent back in say the 5th and ease him in to take over for McCoy. Now dropping top dollar for say Bell or Hunt I would think is silly, to me anyways those are not elite runners and more scheme specific guys who had success in their former teams scheme. I don’t think bell has the same success on say Arizona or Miami. That would be a waste of resources in my opinion. If shady had multiple years left I would probably want him out after next season regardless but it doesn’t hurt to keep him this year. If people think he’s just done and ready to retire that’s insanity. He has some gas left in the tank but he’s not a top 10-15 running back anymore for sure Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
YodaMan79 Posted January 25, 2019 Author Share Posted January 25, 2019 (edited) *Hunt will not command top dollar. He's going to have to take a low guarantee, short term "show me deal". Perfect for a team like the Bills, and I think good for Hunt. A low tier media market could be what he needs to get back into the league, mentally. If you keep McCoy, Hunt would be a nice 50/50 option early in the year, and as the season progresses you could phase the egotistical, washed up and locker room cancer out. Players on the 90s teams did far worse than Hunt, and they're now lauded, so please spare me the moral high ground position. Edited January 25, 2019 by YodaMan79 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Starr Almighty Posted January 25, 2019 Share Posted January 25, 2019 after reading the op's chart..I still want Bell? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Jokeman Posted January 25, 2019 Share Posted January 25, 2019 6 hours ago, YodaMan79 said: The 2017 RB draft class looks to be one for the ages. It begs the question, why would you wants the Bills to tie up large money in a FA or McCoy? The way the front office has been able to grab talent and value in the later rounds leads me to believe they could find really good RBs from Rd 3 on. I grabbed this from Bill Barnwell of ESPN. I didn't realize how great this class really was. Carson in the 7th? Wow. And the highest paid RB, Todd Gurley, has arguably lead his team to a Super Bowl. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logic Posted January 25, 2019 Share Posted January 25, 2019 Give me a big money o-line and a mid-to-late round RB all day over an elite RB with a mediocre line. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
YodaMan79 Posted January 25, 2019 Author Share Posted January 25, 2019 8 minutes ago, The Jokeman said: And the highest paid RB, Todd Gurley, has arguably lead his team to a Super Bowl. Can't tell if you're being sarcastic, or opening yourself up to a lot of ridicule? Hopefully sarcastic... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doc Posted January 25, 2019 Share Posted January 25, 2019 1 hour ago, YodaMan79 said: *Hunt will not command top dollar. He's going to have to take a low guarantee, short term "show me deal". Perfect for a team like the Bills, and I think good for Hunt. A low tier media market could be what he needs to get back into the league, mentally. If you keep McCoy, Hunt would be a nice 50/50 option early in the year, and as the season progresses you could phase the egotistical, washed up and locker room cancer out. Players on the 90s teams did far worse than Hunt, and they're now lauded, so please spare me the moral high ground position. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Jokeman Posted January 25, 2019 Share Posted January 25, 2019 5 minutes ago, YodaMan79 said: Can't tell if you're being sarcastic, or opening yourself up to a lot of ridicule? Hopefully sarcastic... Kinda both. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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