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YodaMan79

This Is Why Spending Big $ For A RB Is Not Wise:

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The 2017 RB draft class looks to be one for the ages.  It begs the question, why would you wants the Bills to tie up large money in a FA or McCoy?  The way the front office has been able to grab talent and value in the later rounds leads me to believe they could find really good RBs from Rd 3 on.  I grabbed this from Bill Barnwell of ESPN.  I didn't realize how great this class really was.  Carson in the 7th?  Wow. 

 

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Edited by YodaMan79
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I think we’ve all learned in the past few years that it isn’t as simple as just having a solid runningback.  It’s about your offensive line, your scheme, your respectable passing game.  

 

Even the list you just posted only shows a 50% success rate in the first 3 rounds. That’s not a good thing. 

 

Teams shouldn’t pay for a guy who is aging or doesn’t fit their scheme. But if you have a guy who you know is good, fits your scheme, younger that 27, I think you absolutely pay him.  

 

We went through a phase of runningback by committee and some teams still do. It’s what keeps players like Kamara fresh.  But they also are going to pay him when it’s time. He’s changed their offense.  

 

Someone like Bell, if he were 2 years younger and didn’t have suspension issues?  I think he absolutely gets the 17 mil he’s looking for.  

 

End result, it’s not cut and dry about the position.  

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What if we draft the next Samaje Perine or Jeremy McNichols?

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Stop worrying about whether or not the Bills keep Shady next season -- his cap number is already figured in and they still have tons of money.  Whether they keep him will depend solely -- as it should -- upon his perceived talent and value to the team.

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Unless you are getting OJ Simpson level 'can't miss' talent, drafting a RB in the first round is a huge mistake.  

 

Let's hope the Bills are so scared from the lost decade of drafting where they did this three times that they never do it again.

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4 minutes ago, Virgil said:

 

 

Even the list you just posted only shows a 50% success rate in the first 3 rounds. That’s not a good thing. 

 

 

Umm, no.  The list in the OP would indicate a 100% success rate in first three rounds (Fournette was a terrible pick at 4 overall, but he's certainly a good back), and in fact all of the first 10 RBs selected have turned out to be good to great.  And even the ones selected after that have a high success rate.  

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2 minutes ago, Cash said:

What if we draft the next Samaje Perine or Jeremy McNichols?

That goes for every position, doesn’t it? Beane has been good in the draft and RB is the easiest position to evaluate. I’m confident he can improve the backfield.

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There's a difference between a great back and an elite back when the offensive line is in place.  It very rarely all comes together though.  

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4 minutes ago, KD in CA said:

Unless you are getting OJ Simpson level 'can't miss' talent, drafting a RB in the first round is a huge mistake.  

 

Let's hope the Bills are so scared from the lost decade of drafting where they did this three times that they never do it again.

Shoulda kept Lynch.

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Agreed (Virgil).  I'd like the Bills to benefit by finding a solid upper tier RB in the draft and not over pay.  Have the skill players and line develop together.  If they're a stud, pay market value to keep your own, when the time comes.  I really like round 3 obviously, but Mack, Cohen and Carson after is really good...

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5 minutes ago, KD in CA said:

Unless you are getting OJ Simpson level 'can't miss' talent, drafting a RB in the first round is a huge mistake.  

 

Let's hope the Bills are so scared from the lost decade of drafting where they did this three times that they never do it again.

And don’t pay them big money.  I might be alone but I do think the Giants made the right choice with Barkley because I think he has HOF talent.  If they can get a good qb prospect this year, they will be loaded on offense.

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8 minutes ago, C.Biscuit97 said:

And don’t pay them big money.  I might be alone but I do think the Giants made the right choice with Barkley because I think he has HOF talent.  If they can get a good qb prospect this year, they will be loaded on offense.

 

They're getting hammered due to the trend of loading up on FA while your QB is on his rookie deal.  25-30 million is going to be the cap rate for a competent QB, while elite RBs 12-15 million.  Giants will catch the same heat as Bills fans were dishing on the 2017 draft, before JA showed the goods, if they can't find a future QB.  But I agree in the sense you don't pass on a HOF talent.  

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For the same reasons QBs are over-valued, RBs are the inversely proportionate positions in terms of NFL draft value at present. RB talent is there in the 3rd and 4th rounds, but I still don't feel that RB is as high a priority for the FO at the moment. If a scenario presents itself, then maybe, but the low cost and risk for the highest potential comes from drafting an RB.

 

Looking at our current roster and the guys that will be demanding contracts in the next two years, it would make the most sense to find our RB replacement through the draft rather than overpaying in FA. But we first need the OL - even the most average or solid RBs can become newsworthy or stout backs with a consistent and effective OL and blocking scheme.

 

 

Edited by ctk232

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30 minutes ago, Virgil said:

I think we’ve all learned in the past few years that it isn’t as simple as just having a solid runningback.  It’s about your offensive line, your scheme, your respectable passing game.  

 

Even the list you just posted only shows a 50% success rate in the first 3 rounds. That’s not a good thing. 

 

Teams shouldn’t pay for a guy who is aging or doesn’t fit their scheme. But if you have a guy who you know is good, fits your scheme, younger that 27, I think you absolutely pay him.  

 

We went through a phase of runningback by committee and some teams still do. It’s what keeps players like Kamara fresh.  But they also are going to pay him when it’s time. He’s changed their offense.  

 

Someone like Bell, if he were 2 years younger and didn’t have suspension issues?  I think he absolutely gets the 17 mil he’s looking for.  

 

End result, it’s not cut and dry about the position.  

 

This isn't directly your point, but it's relevant. 

 

People always talk as though drafting a great college athlete is a sure bet for success in the pro's.

It's not.  Overall, the 1st round is something like 50% and 2nd and 3rd round 30% - not to get a star, just to get a capable quality NFL player.

I'm not saying "pay McCoy", or "draft a guy high in the 1st", just pointing out that it may not be so easy as "draft and use"

 

One thing is certain sure, if the QB is a bona-fide passing threat and the OL is solid at run blocking, the chances of RB success go way up.

 

 

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22 minutes ago, DaBillsFanSince1973 said:

dimeadozen.jpg

FDR is facing left.  Obvious proof that he was a guddam commie.

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28 minutes ago, KD in CA said:

Unless you are getting OJ Simpson level 'can't miss' talent, drafting a RB in the first round is a huge mistake.  

 

I'm here, I'm here! Sorry for being late......

 

Image result for cj spiller bills

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You can get a good RB (or player) anywhere in the draft.  The hard part is finding him. 

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4 minutes ago, Doc said:

You can get a good RB (or player) anywhere in the draft.  The hard part is finding him. 

 

With very hight % hit rate for RB in Rds 2-4. 

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5 minutes ago, Doc said:

You can get a good RB (or player) anywhere in the draft.  The hard part is finding him. 

Except, as the OP shows, it ain't that hard, at least in the first four rounds or so.

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The link didn't work for me.

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is the 2017 RB class that great or is today's tackling that lousy?

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38 minutes ago, Buffalo Barbarian said:

One heads up?

must be the hof'er

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The 2017 draft class is more of an anomaly and still had a 50% hit rate.  Although I'd argue that Mixon would have been a 1st rounder if not for his college trangression.

 

But the Bills weren't going to take a RB within the 1st 4 rounds given Shady's excellent 2016 season.  Again finding a good player outside the first couple rounds is more luck than anything else.

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