ESPN article says Bills would "obviously trade Allen, Edmunds and White for Mahomes

[reddogblitz]

Will KC also throw in Tyreek Hill and Travis Kelce? Can we swap coaches too?

[One Buffalo]

21 minutes ago, Augie said:

 

I think you're correct that the year to sit and learn is critical in the evaluation. I would have also stressed that the Pro Bowlers surrounding Mahomes, while Allen had a clown show of talent surrounding him, played an equally important part in the apparent gap in performance. 

 

I’m not making statements on how this turns out, just that it’s not yet fair to make a comparison.  

 

Mahomes having a year to sit and learn from Alex Smith and the coaching staff is a huge element of his current success.  I posted an article earlier in the thread saying that Mike Kafka basically adopted him last year.  He came in with many of Allen's tendencies that needed to be refined.  Of course he is an amazing talent, but he is in about as optimal of a situation as you can get for a young QB.  

[Formerly Allan in MD]

11 hours ago, dollars 2 donuts said:

BTW, I did extensive research on both teams and came to the unique conclusion that the BIlls OLine, WRs and TEs are terrible in comparison with Kansas City.

 

You can read about all my research in Duh Magazine.

Since when are facts important these days? 

 

Also, KC's RBs were better much of the season as well.

[C.Biscuit97]

47 minutes ago, Luka said:

So you're under the impression that somehow McDermott conducted an entire draft all by himself? It's amazing how clueless people are on this board.

McDermott used Whaley's draft board to make selections. It was Whaley's draft.

I pray you’re just clueless.  Because if by your logic, the Bills blindly used their outgoing GM’s draft board to make picks, this team is completely clueless.

[BADOLBILZ]

9 hours ago, dave mcbride said:

I think we should hold off on this sort of analysis until Feb 4. I think the Chiefs have a pretty solid shot at winning the SB. I think they're going be extremely hard to beat at Arrowhead, and they WILL score if they get to the SB. The fewest points they had this season was 26, which is truly remarkable. Even the best offensive teams tend to have at least one dud during the season. 

 

It's not about us holding off on this sort of analysis.......as I predicted.......it's already happening..........my point was that these stories become large during the playoffs.

 

And heaven forbid Mahomes makes it to the SB.........the storylines about Buffalo's stupidity for trading that pick will be too easy and juicy for story-desperate writers to ignore.

 

[JOE IN HAMPTON ROADS]

let me ask it this way:

 

would you trade Kelly, Bruce AND Talley for Tom Brady?   Assume that all 4 have full careers ahead of them.

 

Brady, by himself, is not worth all three.  Would need to add Bellicheat to make that trade work.  For all we know, Brady without Bellicheat ends up as a backup for the Raiders.

 

And its only one good year - Mahomes may have peaked for all we know.

Edited January 11, 2019 by JOE IN HAMPTON ROADS
added information

[KD in CA]

11 hours ago, NoHuddleKelly12 said:

As would any other franchise in the league too, right? Again, not a true comparison though, since they were drafted in different years. Let's see, the Bills picked Tony Hunter (who?), a TE from Notre Dame with the #12 pick in the 1983 draft, and drafted Jim Kelly #14. With the benefit of hindsight, maybe the Bills would've snapped Jimbo up at #12 first, to ensure that the Lions, or anyone trading picks with the Lions at #13, couldn't grab him?  Or should we also rehash Tom Brady's infamous slide down the draft boards, making every single team in the league look silly, including the Pats, until they took a flyer on him towards the end of the draft? Isn't that an even more egregious example than Mahomes? 

 

You should watch the  ‘Elway to Marino’ documentary.  The Bills picked Hunter first because they would have been happy with either Kelly or Marino at 14.

 

As spectacular as that 1st round was for the HOFers, it was equally spectacular for the failures.  The Lions drafted a huge bust IIRC.

 

Edited January 11, 2019 by KD in CA

[from_dunkirk]

12 hours ago, dneveu said:

1 - We had a lameduck GM who we didn't want drafting our QB of the future

2 - Mahomes was a Junior and didn't attend the senior bowl.  

3 - McD drafted mostly players who attended the senior bowl with Milano the main exception (Tre White, Zay Jones, Dion Dawkins, Nate Peterman)

 

I don't think mahomes would really thrive here without Reid TBH - a seasoned QB coach and Offensive guy.  Not to mention our trainwreck of a line, and our utter lack of weapons.  Imagine that no look pass bouncing off of benjamins chest ?

 

And our defense would be pretty lousy without white and edmunds.

 

I'm not sure we'd be like... drafting another QB, but I'm not sure we're much better off than we are right now.

 

You mention in (1) that GM drafts the QB. Then in (3) that McD drafted players. I think McD could have drafted a QB early in the 2017 draft, but he had Tyrod and Cardale to evaluate. And being so new, he did not want to make a big move to draft a QB until he knew the team better and consulted with the GM. So he started small, then went big in 2018 for Allen. He might have drafted Mahomes if he was evaluated as a generational talent like Andrew Luck, but he wasn't.

Edited January 11, 2019 by from_dunkirk

[Thurman#1]

15 hours ago, DCOrange said:

I mean, Mahomes is about to be named the MVP in his first season as a starter; I think the writer is probably correct that Buffalo would take that in retrospect.

 

 

Yeah, this. 

 

Knowing what we know, and with the bonds fans have built for White and Allen in particular but with Zay as well ... yeah, I think you would take that in retrospect.

 

Of course, part of the development of Mahomes is due to being with Reid in that situation. But if you could trade Mahomes as he is now for our three as they are now, you'd probably do it. I don't know if I'd say it's obvious. You'd think about it first, but at least for me, I'd do it.

 

4 hours ago, Luka said:

So you're under the impression that somehow McDermott conducted an entire draft all by himself? It's amazing how clueless people are on this board.

McDermott used Whaley's draft board to make selections. It was Whaley's draft.

 

 

The guy who was in charge was McDermott. The guy who actually puts the board together does it the way the guy in charge wants. It was McDermott's draft. 

 

Whaley doubtless had a lot of input, though, if that's what you're trying to say.

Edited January 11, 2019 by Thurman#1

[Thurman#1]

4 hours ago, JOE IN HAMPTON ROADS said:

let me ask it this way:

 

would you trade Kelly, Bruce AND Talley for Tom Brady?   Assume that all 4 have full careers ahead of them.

 

Brady, by himself, is not worth all three.  Would need to add Bellicheat to make that trade work.  For all we know, Brady without Bellicheat ends up as a backup for the Raiders.

 

And its only one good year - Mahomes may have peaked for all we know.

 

 

Not sure I understand your intent, but are you comparing Jim Kelly and Josh Allen in your analogy? Those two shouldn't be compared yet. Same with Bruce and ... who ... Bruce and Tre White also should not be compared, though Tre looks like a very fine young player.

 

I agree with you that you wouldn't trade Kelly, Bruce and Talley for Tom Brady but that's not a good analogy for the theoretical trade we're talking about.

 

That's two HOFers and Talley, who was maybe the heart of the team, or at least the defense. Allen, White and Zay (or Edmunds, White and Zay, if that's what was meant)  have a long long way to go before they can be compared to that group.

Edited January 11, 2019 by Thurman#1

[Peter]

I don't doubt that the McBeane would not make this trade.

 

I also do not doubt that Andy Reid and the Chiefs never would make this trade.

 

 

[Prickly Pete]

16 hours ago, Southern Bills Fan said:

If the Bills had evaluated Mahomes and thought he could end up looking anything like the guy who has ripped apart the NFL this season, they obviously would have taken him with their first-round pick. Instead, they sent the 10th selection to the Chiefs for the 27th and 91st selections, along with Kansas City's 2018 first-round pick, which ended up as the 22nd pick. The Bills drafted star cornerback Tre'Davious White with Kansas City's 2017 first-rounder, and then used the other two picks in trades that eventually netted them Zay Jones and Tremaine Edmunds. Sean McDermott undoubtedly loves his two defensive building blocks, and the Bills believe that Josh Allen, their other first-rounder in 2018, can turn into a viable starter, but they would undoubtedly trade all three for Mahomes in a heartbeat.

 

 

I don't think that I would. Thoughts? BTW the article crushes the Bills over Gilmore as well.

 

Who cares?

All these media outlets have to fill their sites with articles everyday, and generate clicks...why even give this crap attention?

[reddogblitz]

3 hours ago, from_dunkirk said:

 

You mention in (1) that GM drafts the QB. Then in (3) that McD drafted players. I think McD could have drafted a QB early in the 2017 draft, but he had Tyrod and Cardale to evaluate. And being so new, he did not want to make a big move to draft a QB until he knew the team better and consulted with the GM. So he started small, then went big in 2018 for Allen. He might have drafted Mahomes if he was evaluated as a generational talent like Andrew Luck, but he wasn't.

 

My grassy knoll theory is Coach McDermott knew his buddy Brandon was going to be joining him soon.  So instead of him and Whaley picking the QB he would wait til next year and he and his bud could pick their guy together.

 

Hopefully they made the right decision.  Time will tell.

 

I would have preferred they just take Watson with the #10 pick.

[Zerovoltz]

Wow.....alot to talk about here.

 

15 hours ago, Mark80 said:

Mahomes had a fantastic year, no doubt.  The question is whether he will be able to maintain it when teams have a whole year of tape on him and their offense and then further down the road when he's making $30+M / year against the cap and they cannot surround him such a high level of talent that they have now.  Time will tell.

 

The day will come when it's time to pay Mahomes....he is going to get a ton of money...and he'll be one of those guys that takes up a bunch of cap room....and he'll be worth it because he does make everyone around him better.  I'd even speculate that QB salaries are about to flatten a little bit because teams are seeing that overpaying for mediocre QB's has been a mistake...so there is a little bit of dial back coming on these future contracts...plus...Mahomes isn't due for an extension before the 2020 labor agreement happens...who knows what that will look like.

 

15 hours ago, dollars 2 donuts said:

Isn't it funny how the writer tries to make the word "undoubtedly" sound like a quote, instead of him just...writing.

 

I hope the best for Allen.  Of course Mahommes is awesome, and he was one of the guys I wanted.

 

Additionally, though, looking at the last game of either young man's first season...I'll take Allen's 3 TD passes, and two rushing TDs over 284 yards and an interception.

 

 

 

Um....that 284 and 1 pick was in Mahomes very first start, wich was week 17 AT Denver...it was the only game he played in....and for some context..Mahomes played the first half, and a little of the 3rd quarter.  got KC out to a 2 TD lead, then sat on the bench while Tyler Bray came in and threw a pick 6 to Denver, then fumbled and Denver tied the game with 3 minutes left.  Mahomes came back in and led KC on the winning drive...part of that drive was a 3rd and 14 where Von Miller is all over him and he is running to his right full speed, and uncorks a strike accross his body as he is being tackled, for a 20 yard completion with 3 defenders all around....he put up 284, and the one pick in 3 quarters, in his first ever game, and led a 4th quarter game winning drive....context is important.

 

15 hours ago, billspro said:

We won’t really know until next year. There is a chance Allen and Mahommes are the top two QBs in the league.

 

I really can't add anything to this...it just sums up half the posts in the thread perfectly though.

 

15 hours ago, oldmanfan said:

True.  Been a while since we've seen threads about how dumb it was to trade Ragland, hasn't it?

 

While you debate this Allen/Mahomes thing...I can tell you with the utmost certainty....Buffalo won this trade for sure.  Ragland is SLOW.

 

12 hours ago, NoHuddleKelly12 said:

So why did 9 other FO’s pass on this once in a generational talent? If college TD’s is the sole measuring stick, then NFL draft order picks should be easy! 

 

Great question.....I can explain it.  Cleveland decided Myles Garrett was a can't miss no brainer safe pick at 1.  San Francisco, probably thought they'd be in on Kirk Cousins the following offseason...and apparently Lynch wasn't into any of the QB available on top that..so traded to the Bears...who took Trubisky.....who they clearly thought was better, otherwise they would have taken Mahomes.  The Jags, took Leonard Fournette at 4...they had Bortles, who they still believed in and had OLD SCHOOL Tom Coughlin calling the shots....at 5, the Titans already had Mariotta...and they took Corey Davis WR...trying to get him more weapons.  At 6, the Jets took Jamaal Adams...you could argue that they needed a QB...but they had just spent a high 2 on Christian Hackenburg in the 2016 Draft...and wanted to see that through (clearly a mistake)  At 7 The Chargers, who already had Rivers...took WR Mike Williams...at 8 Carolina who already had Newton, took McCaffrey.  at 9, the Bengals...who already had Dalton...took WR John Ross (I am sure they'd like a doever as well)  ...so in many of these cases...you can say that they all "Passed" on a QB..but most of them were set at QB and were trying to add parts....KC had some good fortune that the top 9 were many teams not looking at QB.  And then Buffalo at 10...you've all covered it...lame duck GM....new defensive coach...wasn't going to tie his career to a QB picked by an outgoing GM...and wasn't taking one he hadn't evaluated with his new GM.  So, hence the trade.

 

8 hours ago, OldTimeAFLGuy said:

 

 

...of course if he "slips" from 50 TD passes to 40 in 2019, we'll be hearing the "slump" clickbait, right?...........

 

LOL....50 TD in season has been done THREE TIMES...Brady, Manning and Mahomes.....he is bound to slump....just like Manning and Brady "Slumped" after 50.  

 

 

 

Last item I will leave you with.....KC rushed for 115.8 Yards per game with Hunt.  KC has rushed for 116.4 without him.....really good back...but its CLEAR that the QB matters...not the RB....also....if you take away all the TD and Yards Mahomes threw to Hill, Kelce, and Watkins...Mahomes still had 25 TD and 2700 yards. To everyone else on the roster....think about that.....25 TD's would tie for 11th just on their own.

 

I like watching Allen, I hope he gets better with a year of seasoning and some upgrades and I think he will ...but wow....  

[row_33]

5 hours ago, JOE IN HAMPTON ROADS said:

let me ask it this way:

 

would you trade Kelly, Bruce AND Talley for Tom Brady?   Assume that all 4 have full careers ahead of them.

 

Brady, by himself, is not worth all three.  Would need to add Bellicheat to make that trade work.  For all we know, Brady without Bellicheat ends up as a backup for the Raiders.

 

 

 

In this era of the NFL, it’s more plausible to consider making the trade for Brady than in 1988.

 

Edited January 11, 2019 by row_33

[dollars 2 donuts]

3 hours ago, Zerovotlz said:

 

 

 

Um....that 284 and 1 pick was in Mahomes very first start, wich was week 17 AT Denver...it was the only game he played in....and for some context..Mahomes played the first half, and a little of the 3rd quarter.  got KC out to a 2 TD lead, then sat on the bench while Tyler Bray came in and threw a pick 6 to Denver, then fumbled and Denver tied the game with 3 minutes left.  Mahomes came back in and led KC on the winning drive...part of that drive was a 3rd and 14 where Von Miller is all over him and he is running to his right full speed, and uncorks a strike accross his body as he is being tackled, for a 20 yard completion with 3 defenders all around....he put up 284, and the one pick in 3 quarters, in his first ever game, and led a 4th quarter game winning drive....context is important.

 

 

 

Agree and great post, along with the other points you made to other posters comments.

 

However, the talent level between the two teams offenses isn’t really comparable, and it was the las,game of the first season for both.

 

You’ll know from my other posts that I never say Allen is better than Mahommes.  mahommes is unbelievable and no matter how optimistic I might be he isn’t doing in season two what mahommes did in his second year.

 

my thing is this isn’t even about Allen vs Mahommes, but about a writer taking a shot at Buffalo specifically, when other teams in the league, qb needy, could have picked him earlier without giving up anything.

 

edit: and Mahommes was the guy I wanted (or Watson) in 2017. ?

Edited January 11, 2019 by dollars 2 donuts

[Bill from NYC]

5 hours ago, Thurman#1 said:

 

The guy who was in charge was McDermott. The guy who actually puts the board together does it the way the guy in charge wants. It was McDermott's draft. 

 

Whaley doubtless had a lot of input, though, if that's what you're trying to say.

I am not sure why so many folks don't understand the above. Certainly Whaley had input. Did he have authority over McDermott?

No way.

[Cripple Creek]

9 hours ago, Luka said:

So you're under the impression that somehow McDermott conducted an entire draft all by himself? It's amazing how clueless people are on this board.

McDermott used Whaley's draft board to make selections. It was Whaley's draft.

Just curious...why do you suppose a HC would use the draft board of a GM who he wanted gone and knew it was only a matter of days before it happened?  Why would a HC trust anything from the lame duck?

[Rock-A-Bye Beasley]

11 hours ago, CincyBillsFan said:

As an aside I hope the Bills hit the ground running in free agency so we have something real to talk about.   I mean we haven't even got to the divisional playoff games yet and we're going stir crazy arguing about imaginary scenarios where KC trades Mahomes to us or what if we had drafted Mahomes in 2017! 

 

At this rate by February we'll be debating about what would have happened had the Bills taken Tom Brady in the 5th round and hired Belichick after he was fired by Cleveland! 

 

So it’s too early and also too late to talk about? Let me know when the exact sweep spot is. You said after next season, but won’t that be wayyy too late ?

[NoHuddleKelly12]

10 hours ago, KD in CA said:

 

You should watch the  ‘Elway to Marino’ documentary.  The Bills picked Hunter first because they would have been happy with either Kelly or Marino at 14.

 

As spectacular as that 1st round was for the HOFers, it was equally spectacular for the failures.  The Lions drafted a huge bust IIRC.

 

Will definitely do that, thanks for the tip!

[dollars 2 donuts]

 

 

Every so often I am going to keep coming back here to say that the Allen vs Mahommes is a red herring in this mishy-gosh.

 

This is about a reporter taking a dig at Buffalo and the Bills, when there were other fish to fry, as well, concerning the option to take Mahommes.

[TheElectricCompany]

Mahomes in 2017 and Ridley in 2018 was the "shoulda, woulda, coulda" move. 

 

[Shaw66]

21 hours ago, uticaclub said:

Right, I'd rather have Mahomes production then Allen's potential 

Other than to say I definitely would not trade the three for the one, I haven't posted here.   Others probably have said what I'm going to say. 

 

First, if the question is whether I'd trade those three guys for one of the ten best quarterbacks of all time at the beginning of his career, the answer is yes, I'd make that trade.  QBs are too important, and having an all-time great as your QB is priceless.

 

The problem is two-fold.  One part of the problem is whether Mahomes actually IS an all-time great or just had a season that made him look that way.  The other part of the problem is exactly how great Allen actually will turn out to be.  If Allen becomes an all-time great, it wouldn't make sense to trade Edmunds and White just to be able to swap all-time greats.  

 

As for the Mahomes problem, I don't think he's an all-time great.   He IS amazing, I'll grant that.  He's creative and he's athletic.  He understand and he executes the offense.   But I think he's the product of the environment he's in; that is, he's playing for one of the very few coaching geniuses out there, a guy who given the tools can attack defenses in remarkable and effective ways.  And Reid has the tools, not just at QB, but at wideout and at tight end and on the offensive line.   One reason their offense has slowed down, I believe, is that they lost their running back.  He was an important part of the package.  

 

I said early in this past season something that someone else said in this thread - if you'd given Allen a year on the bench in Kansas City and named Allen the starter for 2018, people around the country would be talking about Allen instead of Mahomes.  I really believe that.   Mahomes looks to be a little more intuitive at QB and a little more creative, but Allen is better in and the pocket and is a better runner.   Allen would have had great production in the the KC offense this season.  

 

And I think size matters.  I think over time Mahomes size will be a liability.   Over time, both guys will run and scramble less, because their bodies won't let them do the things they do know, and because defenses will adjust to their style.  They will be forced to succeed more as pocket passers.   When that happens, Allen will have a definite edge.   Allen's size will allow him to play like Big Ben, and it will allow him to have a long career as a field general. 

 

Yes, it's true that Brees has succeeded largely as a pocket passer, and he's practically tiny.   But Brees has had the luxury of a certifiable offensive genius as his head coach.   And Brees is a freak.  The odds of Mahomes evolving into the next Brees are smaller than Allen evolving into the next Big Ben.  

 

So for me, long-term, Allen and Mahomes are a push.  Yes, Mahomes is in the lead currently; he's had a one-year head start and he's surrounded by talent.  How much better do you think Allen's numbers would have been in 2018 if he'd been throwing to Kelce instead of Clay and Tyreek Hill instead of Foster?   IF those two QBs are a push, I'm certainly not trading Edmunds and White so I can have Mahomes over Allen. 

 

And that's BEFORE I consider the real possibility that in the Edmunds the Bills have the best middle linebacker in the league for the decade of the 20s.  

 

[TheElectricCompany]

What's with the constant need to tear down Mahomes' awe inspiring season, while propping up Josh's? 

 

 

Edited January 11, 2019 by TheElectricCompany

[dave mcbride]

11 hours ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

It's not about us holding off on this sort of analysis.......as I predicted.......it's already happening..........my point was that these stories become large during the playoffs.

 

And heaven forbid Mahomes makes it to the SB.........the storylines about Buffalo's stupidity for trading that pick will be too easy and juicy for story-desperate writers to ignore.

 

Sorry - I was referring to your Mahomes/Allen - Marino/Kelly comparison. If Mahomes wins a SB, he's not Marino.  That was my point. 

Edited January 11, 2019 by dave mcbride

[Dr. Who]

39 minutes ago, TheElectricCompany said:

What's with the constant need to tear down Mahomes' awe inspiring season, while propping up Josh's? 

 

 

The rhetoric of your question is just as liable to indicate significant bias -- and I like Mahomes and argued right up to the 2017 draft that we should take him. I'm also thrilled with Josh Allen. They may both end up being superlative qbs. Mahomes may regress, get better, maintain stellar play for years. Allen does not have the surrounding talent or likely coaching staff, given Reid's exceptional abilities. Projecting based on potential is all one can do after a rookie season which involved a subpar oline, injury, and very limited receiver, rb, and te talent. Is recognizing that "propping up" Josh?

[Shaw66]

10 minutes ago, Dr. Who said:

The rhetoric of your question is just as liable to indicate significant bias -- and I like Mahomes and argued right up to the 2017 draft that we should take him. I'm also thrilled with Josh Allen. They may both end up being superlative qbs. Mahomes may regress, get better, maintain stellar play for years. Allen does not have the surrounding talent or likely coaching staff, given Reid's exceptional abilities. Projecting based on potential is all one can do after a rookie season which involved a subpar oline, injury, and very limited receiver, rb, and te talent. Is recognizing that "propping up" Josh?

Right.

 

Look, there's no denying that Mahomes has been spectacular.  

 

The problem is we're talking about the future, not the past, and no one can predict the future.  Prescott looked spectacular his rookie year.  

 

Where Allen is headed, and where Mahomes is headed, no one knows.  In my view, there's a pretty good chance they're both stars, and I think there's about an equal chance they're both journeymen.   Yes, Mahomes to date has been better, no question.   But Mahomes has a year, a coach, a wideout, a tight end and an offensive line over Allen.

 

Too soon to tell.  But since I view it as a push, it makes no sense to me to give up Edmunds to swap QBs.  Edmunds has huge potential. 

[JOE IN HAMPTON ROADS]

8 hours ago, Thurman#1 said:

 

 

Not sure I understand your intent, but are you comparing Jim Kelly and Josh Allen in your analogy? Those two shouldn't be compared yet. Same with Bruce and ... who ... Bruce and Tre White also should not be compared, though Tre looks like a very fine young player.

 

I agree with you that you wouldn't trade Kelly, Bruce and Talley for Tom Brady but that's not a good analogy for the theoretical trade we're talking about.

 

That's two HOFers and Talley, who was maybe the heart of the team, or at least the defense. Allen, White and Zay (or Edmunds, White and Zay, if that's what was meant)  have a long long way to go before they can be compared to that group.

Lets revisit this in 10 years when Allen, Edmonds and White are all locks for the HOF.

[LSHMEAB]

I still want to know who the heck this Mahommes guy is. Is he a free agent/draft prospect/potential OL coach?

 

At any rate, hard pass. Sounds like he's really overrated based on what I've seen in this thread.

[TheElectricCompany]

27 minutes ago, Shaw66 said:

Where Allen is headed, and where Mahomes is headed, no one knows.  Inl. 

 

Yes, and no.....

 

Can you think of a single example where a QB had a ridiculous season like Mahomes did, and then turned into anything but an elite, top tier QB? I can't. Not saying that it can't happen, but the odds are low. Your statement that he could become a journeyman is ridiculous . 

 

You could argue that Josh will have a tough time surpassing his rate stats in the NCAA, because history does support that, but at the same time, 5 TDs against the Dolphins doesn't lie. Can you think of a QB who scored 5 TDs against any opponent and turned into a bust? I can't.  I've perked up about his potential. There should be improvements in his play based on comfort within the scheme, additional playmakers coming on board, etc. etc, but the gap between between where he's at, and what a elite, top tier QB looks like, is pretty immense. 

 

 

Edited January 11, 2019 by TheElectricCompany

[C.Biscuit97]

5 minutes ago, TheElectricCompany said:

 

Yes, and no.....

 

Can you think of a single example where a QB had a ridiculous season like Mahomes did, and then turned into anything but an elite, top tier QB? I can't. Not saying that it can't happen, but the odds are low. 

 

You could argue that Josh will have a tough time surpassing his rate stats in the NCAA, because history does support that, but at the same time, 5 TDs against the Dolphins doesn't lie. Can you think of a QB who scored 5 TDs against any opponent and turned into a bust? I can't.  I've perked up about his potential. There should be improvements in his play based on comfort within the scheme, additional playmakers coming on board, etc. etc, but the gap between between where he's at, and what a elite, top tier QB looks like, is pretty immense. 

 

Matt Flynn had 6 in a game.

 

generally, I agree with your post.  Allen could turn out to be a fine QB but he has never really been a dominant one on any level.  Mahomes had seasons like this in college so it “seems” like it is not a fluke.  

 

Basically, we are hoping Allen becomes a better QB in the nfl than he was in the MWC. Honest question: how often does that happen?

[Dr. Who]

25 minutes ago, Shaw66 said:

Right.

 

Look, there's no denying that Mahomes has been spectacular.  

 

The problem is we're talking about the future, not the past, and no one can predict the future.  Prescott looked spectacular his rookie year.  

 

Where Allen is headed, and where Mahomes is headed, no one knows.  In my view, there's a pretty good chance they're both stars, and I think there's about an equal chance they're both journeymen.   Yes, Mahomes to date has been better, no question.   But Mahomes has a year, a coach, a wideout, a tight end and an offensive line over Allen.

 

Too soon to tell.  But since I view it as a push, it makes no sense to me to give up Edmunds to swap QBs.  Edmunds has huge potential. 

I have confidence McDermott knows D and that White and Edmunds are likely key pieces in building a top-tier defense. Mahomes has to score a lot, because the KC defense is likely to give up 35 points. If Allen turns into a more athletic Big Ben and the D is good, that's a recipe for post-season appearances and success.

Edited January 11, 2019 by Dr. Who

[LSHMEAB]

7 hours ago, NJKBillsfan said:

After reading this thread I gotta make some points.

 

1) A lot of people are saying stuff like "hindsight is 20/20... how we're we supposed to know Mahomes would be this good"

-- Isn't this is why coaches, scouts, etc get paid MILLIONS of dollars? So they can evaluate players and determine if they will be good? Obviously KC must have had a pretty damn good feeling that Mahomes would be a special talent if they traded from 27th all the way to 10th to get him.

 

2) Another common thing people are saying is "Mahomes wouldn't be good in Buffalo anyway" 

-- This is another false statement. If you watch Mahomes play the kid is just a damn good quarterback in all aspects. Arm strength, mobility, pocket awareness, accuracy, etc. A QB with THAT much talent will be successful no matter where he plays. Hell even if you you literally cut Mahomes # of TD passes in half he'd still have 25. For a young QB 25 passing TD's is still pretty incredible. 

 

People just have to admit the Bills blew this opportunity for a really special quarterback. 

Good post. If the Bills could go back in time, they would have(hopefully) taken Mahomes. It's silly to bend oneself into knots trying to bash the kid just because we passed. It was an odd situation with the lame duck GM/new HC/etc.

 

It really can't be healthy to try to convince yourself that what you see isn't true.

 

And once again; if Allen is the real deal, NONE OF THIS WILL MATTER. Nobody in their right mind is going to say, "gee Allen threw for 34 TD's and the Bills went 11-5, but Mahomes threw for 40 TD'S and the Chiefs went 12-4. We really screwed up." This conversation will die when Allen proves he's a franchise QB.

[TheElectricCompany]

18 minutes ago, C.Biscuit97 said:

Matt Flynn had 6 in a game.

 

generally, I agree with your post.  Allen could turn out to be a fine QB but he has never really been a dominant one on any level.  Mahomes had seasons like this in college so it “seems” like it is not a fluke.  

 

Basically, we are hoping Allen becomes a better QB in the nfl than he was in the MWC. Honest question: how often does that happen?

 

Good one, 480 yards and 6 TDs that game! I guess the Lions forgot to play defense. 

[Shaw66]

27 minutes ago, TheElectricCompany said:

 

Yes, and no.....

 

Can you think of a single example where a QB had a ridiculous season like Mahomes did, and then turned into anything but an elite, top tier QB? I can't. Not saying that it can't happen, but the odds are low. Your statement that he could become a journeyman is ridiculous . 

 

You could argue that Josh will have a tough time surpassing his rate stats in the NCAA, because history does support that, but at the same time, 5 TDs against the Dolphins doesn't lie. Can you think of a QB who scored 5 TDs against any opponent and turned into a bust? I can't.  I've perked up about his potential. There should be improvements in his play based on comfort within the scheme, additional playmakers coming on board, etc. etc, but the gap between between where he's at, and what a elite, top tier QB looks like, is pretty immense. 

 

 

Okay, you asked for it.   Here's SI's list of the top 10 rookie seasons for QBs.    https://www.si.com/nfl/photo/2016/10/11/best-rookie-quarterback-seasons-nfl-history#8  

 

On the list are:  Robert Griffin III, Jameis WInston, Andy Dalton, Cam Newton.  Out of ten, one is a bust and three are NOTelite or top tier.  And those are the rookies, not guys who sat for a year and then started.   There probably are a few of those, too. 

 

Like I said, it's too early to tell.  

[BADOLBILZ]

1 hour ago, dave mcbride said:

Sorry - I was referring to your Mahomes/Allen - Marino/Kelly comparison. If Mahomes wins a SB, he's not Marino.  That was my point. 

 

 

OK, yeah I guess if he actually wins a SB it really becomes an uphill climb.

 

Bills fans have been largely shielded from national criticism/mockery for trading away the chance to select a QB who threw 50+ TD passes in his second season.

 

Buffalo is a great tv market for postseason football so if the Chiefs keep winning Bills fans will soon be consuming a lot of stories about how the Chiefs managed to get such a great young QB.........and the Buffalo media will follow up.    

 

[TheElectricCompany]

11 minutes ago, Shaw66 said:

Okay, you asked for it.   Here's SI's list of the top 10 rookie seasons for QBs.    https://www.si.com/nfl/photo/2016/10/11/best-rookie-quarterback-seasons-nfl-history#8  

 

On the list are:  Robert Griffin III, Jameis WInston, Andy Dalton, Cam Newton.  Out of ten, one is a bust and three are NOTelite or top tier.  And those are the rookies, not guys who sat for a year and then started.   There probably are a few of those, too. 

 

Like I said, it's too early to tell.  

 

Quick skim...outside of Cam Newton, everyone on that list put up 30 total TDs or less. 

You are comparing that to Mahomes 52 total TDs and 5000+ yards? Geezus. 

Too soon to tell....give me a break.  

Edited January 11, 2019 by TheElectricCompany

[KD in CA]

2 hours ago, NoHuddleKelly12 said:

Will definitely do that, thanks for the tip!

 

It's one of the more compelling 30 for 30 installments.  Two of the best QBs in history represented by the same agent and both had wild pre-draft stories.  Picks that impacted the NFL for a generation.

 

What if the Lions had the foresight to take Kelly and Marino went to Buffalo?  What if Pittsburgh went with their gut and took Marino?  Or what if the Pats or Jets had made the correct pick with Marino?  What if Steinbrenner had convinced Elway to play for the Yankees?   What if the Colts had traded the pick to any one of about ten teams who were trying to get the #1 pick?  And oh by the way, 3 other non-QB HOFs went in that first round.

[BuffaloBillsGospel]

19 hours ago, C.Biscuit97 said:

Yeah dude. Normal teams hire the coach first and then hire his friend to be the GM after.  Completely normal.  I’m sure Beane lays down the law. 

 

Give me an article that states what you're talking about from either Beane or McDermott otherwise you're just another dude talking out his ass like countless others.

[Shaw66]

11 minutes ago, TheElectricCompany said:

 

Quick skim...outside of Cam Newton, everyone on that list put up 30 total TDs or less. 

You are comparing that to Mahomes 52 total TDs and 5000+ yards? Geezus. 

Too soon to tell....give me a break.  

Acctually you're right, in the sense that NO ONE has ever put up a ridiculous season like Mahomes in his first.   But that means that there's NEVER been a guy who's become an elite QB after having put up such a season.  It's never happened, so the fact that he put up an elite season doesn't say anything about his future.