Article - Making a case for Josh Allen as the NFL's best rookie quarterback over Baker Mayfield, Lamar Jackson

[One Buffalo]

Have to say I agree with Brady Quinn-

 

https://www.cbssports.com/nfl/news/making-a-case-for-josh-allen-as-the-nfls-best-rookie-quarterback-over-baker-mayfield-lamar-jackson/

 

Quote

Allen to me is the one who people say is not very accurate. I watched his game because I've got the call on Lions-Bills coming up this week. And there are a lot of dropped passes. There were a couple I watched literally bounce off right between the numbers," Quinn continued. "People are going to knock this guy for his accuracy? Are they watching film and checking out his completion percentage and his adjusted completion percentage? Who's even grading that? Is it some guy who's ever played football? Or is it some guy who's eating popcorn in his parents basement? 

"Either way, I watched him and I feel like he'll continually get better. And as that team gets better around him and he has some help, like a running game. I think he's the guy right now who you can see why the Bills took him No. 7 overall."

 

[blacklabel]

Nice assessment.

 

Allen definitely makes his fair share of, "Whoa, holy crap!" plays but he also has a few, "Whoa, what the crap!" moments as well. In between there, he has an OL that is very inconsistent. A running game that can't get out of its own way and receivers who take turns dropping well-placed throws. And yeah, Allen misses sometimes but if you bought into all the pre-draft hype about him, you would've believed that this kid throws every third pass into the upper deck. At Wyoming, a lot of his big time throws came with his scrambling and improvising to make a play. He's done that here as well but what he's done a lot more of is make crisp, solid, on-time, accurate throws from the pocket. As we saw on Sunday, when he has a hot start, his confidence goes sky high and then he starts trying to do too much. He's gotta get better at that. Sometimes the play just isn't there no matter what you try so you gotta be smart, protect the ball and move on to the next play. 

 

Zay Jones looked like he was turning a corner but these last couple weeks he's been inconsistent. Other guys have drops as well, Jones just came to mind first. Josh can help these guys out by learning when to really zip it with a lot of velocity and when to just kinda feather it to his guy. Not every throw has to be a fastball. There's been a couple times here his fastball causes the drop because it'll spin right through a receivers hands, bounce off his chest and hit the ground. 

 

I'm certain he will be hosting receivers, tight ends and backs in the off-season to work on their own time and get their chemistry and timing down a bit more.

 

Overall, I gotta remain cautiously optimistic because we've had high hopes before, only to see them dashed. But... I have to say, in just the eight games he's played in this year, he has made some throws and some plays that you rarely see... and he looks as though he can do that on a regular basis. That 75-yard TD to Foster was a thing of beauty. I have no idea how he got that throw off. I saw the pocket collapsing, couldn't even see Allen at that point, I though, "D'oh, sack, stupid Jags." And then suddenly the ball comes flying out of there, hits Foster in stride and he walks into the end zone. I sincerely think the dude just has that stuff. Sometimes you watch games and you spot a player and you get that feeling of, "Man, that dude has it, he's gonna be good." Again, don't wanna get ahead of myself but Josh has made enough plays for me to really believe in that. I hope his arrow is pointing up and as he grows he just gets better and better. He may still  make a bonehead play now and again but if his bonehead plays are minimal when put up against his good plays then I think we can all live with that. And they all make bonehead plays. Russell Wilson had a whopper last night. He had 3rd and goal (I think) from inside the five, they called a pass, he drops back and gets flushed out quickly, he's scrambling back trying to avoid the pressure, which finally catches up with him, he tries to throw it away but he throws this weird sidearm pass towards the sideline but it floated right to a Vikings player and he picked it. The only reason I point this out is because I really feel like there are posters on this board that will throw the kid under the bus no matter what. They demand some kind of unattainable level of perfection that just doesn't happen in football. Again, as long as the good heavily outweighs the bad, I'm all in.

Edited December 11, 2018 by blacklabel

[billsfan1959]

18 minutes ago, One Buffalo said:

Allen to me is the one who people say is not very accurate. I watched his game because I've got the call on Lions-Bills coming up this week. And there are a lot of dropped passes. There were a couple I watched literally bounce off right between the numbers," Quinn continued. "People are going to knock this guy for his accuracy? Are they watching film and checking out his completion percentage and his adjusted completion percentage? Who's even grading that? Is it some guy who's ever played football? Or is it some guy who's eating popcorn in his parents basement? 

"Either way, I watched him and I feel like he'll continually get better. And as that team gets better around him and he has some help, like a running game. I think he's the guy right now who you can see why the Bills took him No. 7 overall."

 

 

I think I know which posters he is talking about.....

[Stank_Nasty]

encouraging to read. thanks for this.

[LABILLBACKER]

If you include all the drops, Allen  would've thrown for 25/36  69%.

The accuracy number will slowly creep up with better wrs and JA taking a little off his fastball. Not to mention better protection. All obvious improvements needed in a few months.

[transplantbillsfan]

Already posted here:

 

but good article for discussion.  And I agree with Quinn, too.

[SlimShady'sSpaceForce]

37 minutes ago, One Buffalo said:

Have to say I agree with Brady Quinn-

 

https://www.cbssports.com/nfl/news/making-a-case-for-josh-allen-as-the-nfls-best-rookie-quarterback-over-baker-mayfield-lamar-jackson/

 

 

some guy who's eating popcorn in his parents basement

[transplantbillsfan]

3 minutes ago, LABILLBACKER said:

If you include all the drops, Allen  would've thrown for 25/36  69%.

The accuracy number will slowly creep up with better wrs and JA taking a little off his fastball. Not to mention better protection. All obvious improvements needed in a few months.

Can you identify all the drops?

 

The broadcast put the stat up for drops in the 1st half of the game at 3.  After that I remember Zay's absolutely ridiculous drop.  That's 4.

 

What were the other 3 plays?

 

Just curious because I no longer have game pass, so I can't go back and watch.

 

Regardless, even with the 4 drops I just identified, 22/36 would still be above 60% at 61.1%.

 

And I remember last week against Miami the same thing happened as I counted the drops and Allen again jumped up above 60% if our WRs caught those balls.

[DaBillsFanSince1973]

nice read, thanks for sharing OP.

[Troll Toll]

The most encouraging thing I’m seeing from Allen is that the game appears to have slowed down considerably for him. He is navigating away from the instantaneous pressure and finding guys open downfield. It’s night and day from where he was at the start of the year. Last night we saw what Russell Wilson looks like when Doug Baldwin is out. 

 

Our receivers don’t get the separation you see on other teams. Get Josh some weapons.

[whatdrought]

Another invaluable point is how many holding and false starts are happening and wiping out great plays by Josh.

 

people say the jets don’t have much around Darnold, but it’s a lot more than what Buffalo has.

[Bill Murray]

10 minutes ago, whatdrought said:

Another invaluable point is how many holding and false starts are happening and wiping out great plays by Josh.

 

people say the jets don’t have much around Darnold, but it’s a lot more than what Buffalo has.

100% agree... in the Miami game, CONSECUTIVE 3rd down conversions were wiped out on offensive penalties.   It’s a fools errand to quantify all the drops and offensive penalties on “what would have been” huge plays and so “what would have been”better stat lines.  Bottom line is the kid has the stuff and as the team around him gets better, his numbers will also get better.  Right now the stats are misleading and also largely irrelevant...

[PolishPrince]

20 minutes ago, whatdrought said:

Another invaluable point is how many holding and false starts are happening and wiping out great plays by Josh.

 

people say the jets don’t have much around Darnold, but it’s a lot more than what Buffalo has.

Also this. Not only is it negating great plays by Josh which pad his stats better... Josh is constantly starting drives 1st and 20 it seems making his job a lot harder - even harder once Shady or Ivory run for no gain setting up 2nd and 20.

[Mike in Horseheads]

38 minutes ago, ShadyBillsFan said:

some guy who's eating popcorn in his parents basement

Caught again eh.

[CincyBillsFan]

Great article and I think it was fair because Quinn pointed out something that a lot of the National football media seems to ignore - Allen has very little help from his offensive teammates. 

 

If you look at the rankings of how the QB's have played to date Quinn get's it right by putting Mayfield at the top and Allen second.  Talk that Allen may have a higher upside is just talk at this point.  Hopefully over the next 10 years this becomes a raging debate.  Because if it does it means Allen is that guy for us. 

[billsredneck1]

1 hour ago, whatdrought said:

Another invaluable point is how many holding and false starts are happening and wiping out great plays by Josh.

 

people say the jets don’t have much around Darnold, but it’s a lot more than what Buffalo has.

not to sound ignorant but, what happens stat wise in that case? josh completes a pass...called back for penalty.  does that even get recorded in the attempts/comp.?

 

btw ..offensive penalties. i get the turnover with wood and richie but this line and run game have been coming unraveled for a couple of years now and i blame that all on position coaching...or...err....run game coordinator.

Edited December 11, 2018 by billsredneck1

[CincyBillsFan]

6 minutes ago, billsredneck1 said:

not to sound ignorant but, what happens stat wise in that case? josh completes a pass...called back for penalty.  does that even get recorded in the attempts/comp.?

 

 

 

If the defense accepts the penalty then the play never happened so nothing is entered into the stats. 

[VW82]

Obviously I disagree with Brady (see my post detailing his throws vs. Jets). Accounting for drops and throwaways (not just for Josh but all QBs) doesn't move him from bottom of the NFL to middle of the pack. He's still near the bottom. Nice try though. Consider ESPN's Total QBR which adjusts for all this stuff still rates Allen as the worst passer in the NFL on the year. 

 

What I will say in his defense is he makes star plays, both running and throwing. I don't know this, but I bet he has a higher rate of making big time throws than most QBs. Some of the passes he makes are just spectacular. Surely someone that gifted will figure it out, right?  

 

 

Edited December 12, 2018 by VW82

[MDH]

1 hour ago, LABILLBACKER said:

If you include all the drops, Allen  would've thrown for 25/36  69%.

 

Here's a list of the most dropped passes by team.

 

http://stats.washingtonpost.com/fb/tmleaders.asp?range=NFL&type=Receiving&rank=232

 

The Bills come in at 13 with 15 drops on the season. The do throw less than most teams, so perhaps their drop percentage would be near the top. I don't feel like doing the math on that one. 

 

These stats are way different than your perception that the Bills dropped 11 balls in one game though...

 

That said, I don't know if these stats include week 14.

 

[GoBills808]

5 minutes ago, VW82 said:

Obviously I disagree with Brady (see my post detailing his throws vs. Jets). Accounting for drops and throwaways (not just for Josh but all QBs) doesn't move him from bottom of the NFL to middle of the pack. He's still near the bottom. Nice try though. Consider ESPN's Total QBR which adjusts for all this stuff still rates Allen as the worst passer in the NFL on the year. 

 

What I will say in his defense is he makes star plays, both running and throwing. I don't know this, but I bet he has a higher rate of making big time throws than most QBs. Some of the passes he makes are just spectacular. Surely someone that gifted will figure it out, right?  

 

 

Well...not to stop people from checking out your post detailing his throws vs. the Jets or anything, but consider that Allen's actually ranked 19th in ESPN's Total QBR. Ahead of the other rookies. 

 

Also, lol at QBR.

[Rico]

Out of all this year's rookie QBs, Allen is by far the most fun to watch (sorry Baker fans). Hope he keeps getting better and better along with the team around him.

[Alphadawg7]

Few things...

1. Allen without a doubt is seeing his comp % MORE impacted by the talent around him then by just flat out bad throws.
   1. Drops - Too many drops, including one that would have him at a .500 record had clay just caught it.
   2. Pass Protection Breakdown - Far too often the kid is having to run for his life.  In some cases he gets away clean to make either a good throw on the run or a just keep the ball for a big run himself.  However, when he can't get away he has had to throw away a lot of passes.  And other times when they are all over him, he has had a few rookie mistakes where he trusted his arm too much and resulted in a turnover or bad bad under duress because he was trying to make a pass he shouldn't have attempted.
   3. Penalties - He has seen penalties negate some very very good throws.  He has also seen penalties put them in down and long situations, even very long, forcing him to take more lower percentage deep shots.
   4. WR Separation - Our guys just struggle at getting separation.  Zay for instance has only really made plays more often when Allen is scrambling because its hard for a DB to hold coverage that long.  But Allen is also having to scramble because Zay and the others are not getting separation and getting open on their initial routes enough.

So for me, I do not see a wildly inaccurate kid out there.  I see a leader who keeps putting this team on his back and accounting for over 80% of the entire offensive output the last 3 weeks.  Allen's inaccuracy is essentially more "reputation" than "factual" right now.  Its easy to pick at the stat sheet and make a narrative, its another to actually watch every throw and see what is really going on.  

 

ALL...and I mean ALL...QB's miss throws all the time.  Allen is NEVER going to NOT miss throws, thats literally impossible.  However, in the event Allen misses a guy, there are people here who then go "See, I told you he is inaccurate" which is total nonsense.  There are certainly areas for him to keep improving, and I have confidence he will, but this kid doesn't have an accuracy PROBLEM.  

Edited December 12, 2018 by Alphadawg7

[cle23]

Mayfield  was 18-22 this week......with 3 dropped passes, 1 of which was a walk in 30 yard TD. Allen isn't the only QB with dropped passes. Cleveland actually has more if you look at the above link.

[Tcali]

Allen is certainly promising. But his faults re passing arent all specifically about accuracy. he does have a problem there--esp when he has WRs wide open in critical situations.

Has he been awful in passing accuracy?? Not lately.

Mayfield is by far the superior QB of the 2 right now. Allen may even that out as time goes by.

Lets not get carried away here. Allens play is a bit chaotic separate from his butterfingers receivers. 

[PolishPrince]

10 minutes ago, cle23 said:

Mayfield  was 18-22 this week......with 3 dropped passes, 1 of which was a walk in 30 yard TD. Allen isn't the only QB with dropped passes. Cleveland actually has more if you look at the above link.

They also have a run game, and guys making spectacular catches from time to time...

https://www.clevelandbrowns.com/video/can-t-miss-play-chubb-mosses-db-for-absurd-td-catch

[cle23]

2 minutes ago, PolishPrince said:

They also have a run game, and guys making spectacular catches from time to time...

https://www.clevelandbrowns.com/video/can-t-miss-play-chubb-mosses-db-for-absurd-td-catch

 

Do people knock Eli when Beckham does that? Every QB gets bailed out from time to time,  just as every QB has dropped passes. You cant just say "he's over 60%" if you take out drops." Every QB has passes dropped.

[One Buffalo]

I posted this in another thread last week, seems relevant to this discussion-  

 

 

[PolishPrince]

19 minutes ago, cle23 said:

 

Do people knock Eli when Beckham does that? Every QB gets bailed out from time to time,  just as every QB has dropped passes. You cant just say "he's over 60%" if you take out drops." Every QB has passes dropped.

But thats just it... Im not saying it a knock of Mayfield... I am saying when has Allen EVER got a catch like that lol, or even clay catching the game winner "even though it wobbled," or Clay catching the dime across the middle where he may have taken it 40+ yards... or hitting Zay in the chest and it just bounced off lol

[Stank_Nasty]

3 minutes ago, PolishPrince said:

But thats just it... Im not saying it a knock of Mayfield... I am saying when has Allen EVER got a catch like that lol, or even clay catching the game winner "even though it wobbled," or Clay catching the dime across the middle where he may have taken it 40+ yards... or hitting Zay in the chest and it just bounced off lol

Ya he totally missed your point. 

 

The point you can routinely look around the league and see wr’s and te’s reward their qb’s “area code” throws..... until you watch a Bills game. 

[Alphadawg7]

42 minutes ago, cle23 said:

Mayfield  was 18-22 this week......with 3 dropped passes, 1 of which was a walk in 30 yard TD. Allen isn't the only QB with dropped passes. Cleveland actually has more if you look at the above link.

 

Cleveland has a lot better talent around Mayfield than what is around Allen.  There isnt a single player at any skill position that would start in Cleveland over who is there now.  McCory would not start over Chubb.  None of our WR's would start over any of their starters.  Clay wouldn't start over Njoku.  And their offensive line is better than ours too.  

 

You cant just compare QB's without weighing the pieces around them.  And Mayfield isn't having to account for 85% of the offensive production himself like Allen has had to the last 3 weeks.  

 

I like Mayfield a lot, so not taking anything away from him.  But its not really a fair comparison in terms of what Mayfield has to work with and what Allen has to work with.  

Edited December 12, 2018 by Alphadawg7

[cle23]

6 minutes ago, PolishPrince said:

But thats just it... Im not saying it a knock of Mayfield... I am saying when has Allen EVER got a catch like that lol, or even clay catching the game winner "even though it wobbled," or Clay catching the dime across the middle where he may have taken it 40+ yards... or hitting Zay in the chest and it just bounced off lol

 

I didn't miss anything. Higgins dropped a wide open 30 yard TD last week. Chubb made a crazy catch for sure.

[GoBills808]

29 minutes ago, cle23 said:

 

Do people knock Eli when Beckham does that? Every QB gets bailed out from time to time,  just as every QB has dropped passes. You cant just say "he's over 60%" if you take out drops." Every QB has passes dropped.

Yeah, Foster and Jones are just bailing Allen out every game with all those absurd catches they're making.

[Alphadawg7]

29 minutes ago, cle23 said:

 

Do people knock Eli when Beckham does that? Every QB gets bailed out from time to time,  just as every QB has dropped passes. You cant just say "he's over 60%" if you take out drops." Every QB has passes dropped.

 

You are also grossly over looking the real difference maker at WR.  Its not drops, its separation and actually getting open.  This notion that the WR problem is only "drops" related is completely false.  Our guys just dont get open enough, in fact, Zay is practically invisible unless Allen is scrambling under duress and gives Zay a better chance to break free.  He is not doing well at running routes and getting separation consistently.  

 

Those players at WR and TE in Cleveland are superior to ours in both hands, route running, blocking, and getting separation.  We dont have a single WR that would start there.

[VW82]

59 minutes ago, GoBills808 said:

Well...not to stop people from checking out your post detailing his throws vs. the Jets or anything, but consider that Allen's actually ranked 19th in ESPN's Total QBR. Ahead of the other rookies. 

 

Also, lol at QBR.

 

Allen does rank 19th in Total QBR once you adjust for his rushing. He's dead last if you isolate his passing plays, and that's taking into account drops, throwaways, type of throws, etc. I'm generally not a fan of all-in-one statistics because they're overly ambitious and just not a good way to make an argument in isolation. That's one of the reasons why I went through an entire game's worth of throws to help present better evidence. 

[Stank_Nasty]

8 minutes ago, Alphadawg7 said:

 

You are also grossly over looking the real difference maker at WR.  Its not drops, its separation and actually getting open.  This notion that the WR problem is only "drops" related is completely false.  Our guys just dont get open enough, in fact, Zay is practically invisible unless Allen is scrambling under duress and gives Zay a better chance to break free.  He is not doing well at running routes and getting separation consistently.  

 

Those players at WR and TE in Cleveland are superior to ours in both hands, route running, blocking, and getting separation.  We dont have a single WR that would start there.

I think lack of separation is the main problem with them and then when you team that problem up with the line giving Allen no time, it’s a recipe for disaster. The kid is really polishing this turd as good as he can. 

 

How people refuse to see these issues, I’ll never know. You put any of the other early drafted qb’s in this scenario and it would be UGLY. I dunno how many of them could deal with it physically. Darnold was already leading the league in picks. How many would he toss if he was running for his life ROUTINELY?  And then I wonder if Jackson maybe stood a chance but if he got licked as hard has Allen does weekly he would be broken already. 

Edited December 12, 2018 by Stank_Nasty

[Augie]

1 hour ago, VW82 said:

Obviously I disagree with Brady (see my post detailing his throws vs. Jets). Accounting for drops and throwaways (not just for Josh but all QBs) doesn't move him from bottom of the NFL to middle of the pack. He's still near the bottom. Nice try though. Consider ESPN's Total QBR which adjusts for all this stuff still rates Allen as the worst passer in the NFL on the year. 

 

What I will say in his defense is he makes star plays, both running and throwing. I don't know this, but I bet he has a higher rate of making big time throws than most QBs. Some of the passes he makes are just spectacular. Surely someone that gifted will figure it out, right?  

 

 

 

Not to be too negative, but I think of ESPN as pure garbage these days.....and sliding down the muddy slope. There are high school newspapers in Kentucky that have better basketball recruiting coverage. They don’t even try any more. Just take it down, it’s embarrassing. 

[thenorthremembers]

Outside of Shady's 23 yarder against the Jets I haven't seen a skill player make something out of nothing the entire year.

 

At some point a wideout or runningback needs to catch a 10 yard pass and turn it into 30.  This team doesnt have that.

 

What they do have is a kid at QB who is playing his balls off week in and week out without the likes of Jarvis Landry, Nick Chubb, David Njoku, David Johnson, Larry Fitzgerald, John Brown or Michael Crabtree.  Good God they don't even have a Willie Snead on the roster.

 

Has he missed some throws, sure has.  I would desperately like to see more touchdown passes but the drops have been bad.  He may be bad, he may be great but we won't find out for sure until they get some players on offense.

 

 

[CSBill]

41 minutes ago, One Buffalo said:

I posted this in another thread last week, seems relevant to this discussion-  

 

 

 

That speaks volumes. Considering most of the KB & Holmes stats are Benjamin's, makes my loath him even more. I hope he costs the Chiefs a chance at the Super Bowl with a dropped potential game-winning pass in the AFC Championship game. Then the entire world will see what we saw this season.

[Alphadawg7]

1 minute ago, CSBill said:

 

That speaks volumes. Considering most of the KB & Holmes stats are Benjamin's, makes my loath him even more. I hope he costs the Chiefs a chance at the Super Bowl with a dropped potential game-winning pass in the AFC Championship game. Then the entire world will see what we saw this season.

 

Like Evans did for the Ravens?  Hehehe...in fairness, I felt bad for Evans and the defender punched it out more than he dropped it.  But that did cost them a SB berth.  

[JerseyBills]

I really think you can argue he has the highest ceiling in the game , period. Him and Mahomes. We might have struck gold.

He def has the right mind, might be a captain next year. You can clearly see the respect his teammates have for him. A natural leader , a gamer , just a phenomenal attitude for the position. 

The physical  ability  is off the charts , best in the league at the position, for a "project" QB with under 10 starts, throwing to all unproven WR and with no consistent  run game (besides him, he has that spidey sense when he takes off,thing of beauty), he gets an A+ imo. And you know he's going to put in a ton of work,have improved OL and WR , i mean the skys the limit, his ceiling is ridiculously high , glad hes a Bill! 

Baker is currently  playing  better but when you ***** the situations  and look at the tape, Allen has a much higher ceiling , 

Edited December 12, 2018 by JerseyBills