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This Was Always a Quiet Rebuild


H2o

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Here are a couple things I think:

 

We had some bad years where we got good draft order - but squandered picks.  Most of the time we have been languishing with middle-ish draft choices, hard to really reset a roster when you're not getting up to the top without sacrificing MORE picks to do so (see several moves we made during the drought).

 

The NFL is constantly evolving - unless you have a real forward thinking front office/coaching staff, you are going to be constantly playing a catch up game.  In our case we've had almost constant turnover in the front office and coaching staff.  That makes it so difficult to have any real "building" going on when schemes change (how many times did we go from 3-4 to 4-3 and back again in the past decade?)  This all adds to a further weakening of talent.

 

I think we just had the perfect storm of garbage for a very long time.  Constant turnover in the front office/coaching staff, a lot of busts in drafts or just picking players you didn't need.

 

Don't get me wrong - I've enjoyed this team throughout, because I stick with the team.  It has been difficult to see though, riding the rollercoaster hoping that this season will be different.  I TRULY think that this has been settled.  I think we are going to have this core of GM/Coach for a while - and that is going to equate to success, even if it isn't instant gratification.  While the Drought ended with some help, it was important I think to throw that monkey off our backs and now we can focus on improving without constantly thinking "19 years, 20 years, ..."

 

I'm excited for the future.  I think Allen is going to improve and I am sort of OK with Peterman as a serviceable starter for now until Josh is ready.  Peterman seems to have taken strides this preseason.  The O-Line is really a problem - and we've seen that combining that with Josh right now is a recipe for disaster.

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1 hour ago, H2o said:

A taste of the playoffs last year had us all hoping this was turning around quicker than anticipated. The fact we were only a few plays away from beating a team that was in the AFC Championship piled onto that hope. If Tyrod throws back shoulder to Benjamin, if the defense could stop Blake friggin Bortles from looking like Michael Vick, this, or that, we all contemplated the scenarios. It had us relieved that the drought was over, but we still had that uncharted excitement due to the year we had. The fact of the matter is this has always been a rebuild since McDermott took over and Beane was brought in after last year's draft. 

 

We have basically washed our hands of everything and everyone in previous regimes. Watkins, Glenn, Dareus, Darby, and Tyrod were all traded away. Gilmore was allowed to walk in FA along with Preston Brown, Goodwin, Henderson, and Robert Woods. Eric Wood's injury was an unforeseen wrench thrown in there as well as Richie's personal struggles that led to his retirement. Right there we are talking about 11 starters between the offense and defense which were all on the field for us just two years ago. That is one hell of a turnover. You couple all of these roster moves with the fact we have an aging Shady, Hughes, Kyle on what is most likely his farewell tour, and now you throw in 3 more starters who all may not be on this team as early as 2019. We are going through some serious changes. 

 

We have acquired some key pieces in this time as well through the draft, FA, and trades. The FA side of things is judged by me with Hyde and Poyer. I know the preseason hasn't been what we hoped for, but last year they were arguably the best Safety tandem in the league. Two of the best pickups we have made in quite some time. Teams always make moves their fans or members of the media don't always agree with. I didn't like the Star contract and I still don't like the Star contract, but hopefully he can contribute. We have traded for players like Kelvin Benjamin and Corey Coleman who are still on the team. Benjamin may be a long term piece here and we can't really judge anything on Coleman except the fact we got him for basically a bag of peanuts. Imo, the money has been in the draft. Last year we picked up Te White, Dawkins, and Milano. The jury is still out on Zay Jones, but hopefully he bounces back from all of his on field struggles and off the field incidents to become a productive WR. This year we get Josh Allen who is the future of the franchise at QB, Edmunds who is destined to be the QB of the defense, Harrison Phillips who is basically Kyle Jr., Taron Johnson, and Wyatt Teller. All of these players I feel will be good, if not great players for us in years to come despite Dunkirk Chad's Word on the situation. All of these players we have acquired have also been done so in a way which we haven't parted with anything consequential in the years to come. 

 

This year maybe a struggle and there are some things that have put us in a places we did not expect with this roster, but I still have faith that the Coaching Staff and FO have us moving in the right direction for long term sustainable success. We are projected to have $90,000,000 in cap room next offseason after dropping all of the dead weight. We still have all of our early round picks. We have some really solid young talent as well as a few key vets under contract the next few seasons. I know we enjoyed the little taste of success we had last year, but with a rebuild comes growing pains and that is what this has always been.  

Imo, this is the attitude that should he embraced around here. Id bet most knowledgeable fans feel similar. Its a shame that the small percentage who act like their Depends need to be changed are so loud and persistent.

Edited by gobills1212
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1 hour ago, C.Biscuit97 said:

I just love the narrative that a team that averaged 8 wins in the previous regime needed a rebuild. 

 

It's not that cut and dry. Whaley put together teams either treading water or trending downward. And, it took a huge expenditure of cap dollars to get there. 

 

After 4 years of Marrone and Rex the Buffalo Bills were out to sea without wind and featuring broken sails. They weren't going anywhere.

 

I get that no one wants to hear patience, but I'm more open to it now that there's at least some plan in place. I couldn't get there under previous regimes because the plan was either short sighted or knee-jerk. 

 

This was always a 2-3 year rebuild, given the need to find new personnel. And, to get out of a bad cap situation, find better talent evaluators, and put together a plan that worked in the modern NFL.

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1 hour ago, Mango said:

How many of those are self inflicted wounds by the FO. I totally agree that we have too many holes to cover in an off season. He’ll, I think it probably takes 3. But there didn’t need to be that many. 

 

Dareus is a good example. Between dead cap and salary, we are paying his replacement 23 mil for lesser production. We had an out next year that would have slashed his dead cap money. 

 

It feels like we are trying to clean out the fridge but just throwing perfectly good food on the ground in the process. Now we have to clean up the mess and buy more groceries. 

 

 

What is the perfectly good food

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29 minutes ago, CuddyDark said:

Quiet? This is/was always a full rebuild. From the time they wanted to go to a 43 and install a west coast spread.

oh come on ..............    you're ruining the narrative.  

16 minutes ago, BuffaloMatt said:

Hmmmmm . . . . . I wonder what Bucky and Sully would have to say about this.

I dunno   but I hear they're back 

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5 minutes ago, John from Riverside said:

What is the perfectly good food

Darby- Strip steak. Not filet, but a good piece of meat and not cube steak. could be pricey down the line but we got it on sale with our EBT card.

 

Preston Brown- sliced honey baked turkey. Sure not your go to protein, but better than most deli meats. A reliable lunch product. 

 

Glenn- wheat bread. Expensive for bread. We don’t eat it much, but wish we did consume more because we know it’s good for us. Expensive to replace too.

 

Dareus- A piece of your wedding cake. Sure it’s not as good as the day you got married, but now you have to go out and buy another one so your wife doesn’t find out you tossed it. Now we’ve paid twice for it and have to look the wife in the eye and pretend it’s the same one, even though you both know it’s not. 

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1 hour ago, C.Biscuit97 said:

Agree with the 8-8.  That’s why if Andy Dalton didn’t help, last year would have been terrible.  

 

But I’d argue that with a franchise type qb, those Whaley teams were SB contenders or at worst, playoff contenders every year.  Can you say that about this year’s team?

 

But we never got the franchise QB.  We traded franchise QB assets to get a WR for EJ Manuel.  

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I’m a bit concerned about the returns on our FA signings this year... 

 

Star looks average, totally not worth 10mil per, IMO.

 

Trent Murphy is made of glass.

 

A.J. McCarron is a waste of 5mil as the 3rd QB.

 

Vontae Davis is washed. 

 

In total you’re looking at over 20mil on the cap this year between those four... Of course this is all knee-jerk thoughts based on pre-season, but I honestly wish we had a mulligan on how we spent our money this offseason. 

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2 minutes ago, Meazy26 said:

I’m a bit concerned about the returns on our FA signings this year... 

 

Star looks average, totally not worth 10mil per, IMO.

 

Trent Murphy is made of glass.

 

A.J. McCarron is a waste of 5mil as the 3rd QB.

 

Vontae Davis is washed. 

 

In total you’re looking at over 20mil on the cap this year between those four... Of course this is all knee-jerk thoughts based on pre-season, but I honestly wish we had a mulligan on how we spent our money this offseason. 

 

AJ mcCarrons waste is fine if peterman starts with with a 614K cap hit.

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2 hours ago, Figster said:

Or a franchise QB

 

Which they put themselves into a position to draft despite assembling a winning record.  They have more pieces to assemble and it was not all going to come together in one year.  

 

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I think I would be ok with a total collapse this year, but knowing the Bills could possibly have TWO QB's they can win with as they improve the roster around them.

 

If the Bills start out badly, I would be open to trading McCoy and/or Clay for draft picks, but the cap may not allow that to happen.

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2 hours ago, C.Biscuit97 said:

Agree with the 8-8.  That’s why if Andy Dalton didn’t help, last year would have been terrible.  

 

But I’d argue that with a franchise type qb, those Whaley teams were SB contenders or at worst, playoff contenders every year.  Can you say that about this year’s team?

I think that's sort of OP's point, though. This year's team actually went out and got one. 

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3 minutes ago, njbuff said:

I think I would be ok with a total collapse this year, but knowing the Bills could possibly have TWO QB's they can win with as they improve the roster around them.

 

If the Bills start out badly, I would be open to trading McCoy and/or Clay for draft picks, but the cap may not allow that to happen.

 

McCoy and Clay can't have much value. Especially Clay.

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2 hours ago, ShadyBillsFan said:

stupid it may be but it is what happens.  New coaches want their own players.  They keep the guys that they feel are the best of the best and replace the others.  

 

Some  coaches feel if they have to "motivate" a player then the player isn't right int he head.  Every player should be motivated by themselves to be the best  that they can.

 

Sure we lost talent, many people said were no good.   Sammy was so good he spent a year in LA and is now in KC all the while Robert Woods is still there.  

Tyrod should have been gone last season and then we really would have sucked and gotten another top round pick w/o having to trade down to 7th or lower. 

somehow I knew that to be part of your argument.  

 

It wasn't HATE,  we saw he wan't the answer.  

As a 3rd and 4th alternate and the guy who was "begging" for votes last season.  

 

I never hated Marino, feared him yes.  Hate, never?   

 

why, because he wasn't a whiny little b word like Brady

I hope you’re not trying to pin me as a Tyrod guy because I was ready to move on from him 2 years ago.  But even then, I recognized him as a lower level Alex Smith type qb and you could do a lot worse.  There’s some BS narrative that AJ and Nate Peterman are easily upgrades over Tyrod and there is zero evidence of this.

 

My main issue is we have a first time, defensive minded head coach running our team.  I’m willing to trust them on offense, but their offensive moves have been awful.  Obviously, it all rests on Allen but there’s some BS going on that he has no help.  Well that’s because this regime has done a terrible job on the offensive side of the ball.  They admitted they didn’t even talk to Sammy’s agent before the trade.  I’d feel better about Allen if he had Sammy to throw to.  

6 minutes ago, Figster said:

Crazy Richie might strike some fear into his fellow Oline when it comes to protecting the QB.

I think RI could murder someone and some fans will still want him back and make excuses for him. It’s embarrassing.  

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2 hours ago, Shotgunner said:

I think anyone paying attention knows this has been a rebuild. 

 

Playoffs last year was a shocker for everyone.

 

I'm still trustin' the process.

Agree. The process takes 2-3 years to establish a foundation. I think we have 2 solid qbs to build around. Do what Dallas did in the 90's and build an amazing Oline around Josh. Probably Shady & Kyle's last year. Draft or sign a good RB ro pair with Murphy. Get Josh more wr toys. And whatever picks and fa money left go to D. Not only must we "Trust the process" but never rush the process no matter how anxious we are to win. We're on the right track!

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31 minutes ago, C.Biscuit97 said:

I hope you’re not trying to pin me as a Tyrod guy because I was ready to move on from him 2 years ago.  But even then, I recognized him as a lower level Alex Smith type qb and you could do a lot worse.  There’s some BS narrative that AJ and Nate Peterman are easily upgrades over Tyrod and there is zero evidence of this.

 

My main issue is we have a first time, defensive minded head coach running our team.  I’m willing to trust them on offense, but their offensive moves have been awful.  Obviously, it all rests on Allen but there’s some BS going on that he has no help.  Well that’s because this regime has done a terrible job on the offensive side of the ball.  They admitted they didn’t even talk to Sammy’s agent before the trade.  I’d feel better about Allen if he had Sammy to throw to.  

I think RI could murder someone and some fans will still want him back and make excuses for him. It’s embarrassing.  

If RI makes the Oline better without disrupting team chemistry,

 

call me embarrassing, (it wouldn't be the 1st time)

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1 hour ago, dneveu said:

 

But we never got the franchise QB.  We traded franchise QB assets to get a WR for EJ Manuel.  

 

Can we admit there were major flaws in the Hackett/Marrone offense, that made it slightly more difficult to accurately grade EJ. While also saying that’s EJ was not a good QB? 

 

It doesn’t need to be a pie, it’s not mutually exclusive. Just because EJ was 80% terrible, doesn’t mean that Hacket & co. Were only 20% terrible on that side of the ball. 

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1 hour ago, Meazy26 said:

I’m a bit concerned about the returns on our FA signings this year... 

 

Star looks average, totally not worth 10mil per, IMO.

 

Trent Murphy is made of glass.

 

A.J. McCarron is a waste of 5mil as the 3rd QB.

 

Vontae Davis is washed. 

 

In total you’re looking at over 20mil on the cap this year between those four... Of course this is all knee-jerk thoughts based on pre-season, but I honestly wish we had a mulligan on how we spent our money this offseason. 

I’m still surprised that they couldn’t get out of the way of that train named Star. Everyone saw that coming a year in advance, some liked it (probably because the name recognition) others kept talking about how bad he was. Hopefully he can turn it around once the season starts.

 

None of the other contracts mentioned have much impact past this season.

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Getting Allen and Edmunds will be huge.  If we have young and cheap solid QB and MLB play, you can generally fill-in around those guys.  Need to find competent (not even all-pro) OL help, pass rush help and this team is looking at 10+ wins a year.  Find a Bell or AB, and your looking at a continual SB contender.  

1 hour ago, Meazy26 said:

I’m a bit concerned about the returns on our FA signings this year... 

 

Star looks average, totally not worth 10mil per, IMO.

 

Trent Murphy is made of glass.

 

A.J. McCarron is a waste of 5mil as the 3rd QB.

 

Vontae Davis is washed. 

 

In total you’re looking at over 20mil on the cap this year between those four... Of course this is all knee-jerk thoughts based on pre-season, but I honestly wish we had a mulligan on how we spent our money this offseason. 

 

Yeah, but luckly: (1) last years FA haul was impressive and landed us the best safety combo in the league; (2) Davis is a decent backup, and I think Phillips was a FA add; and finally (3) I think we can get out of most of the contracts. Hopefully cut or restructure Star, who looks bad, esp. like you said, at 10mill/year.  

 

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7 minutes ago, Commonsense said:

I’m still surprised that they couldn’t get out of the way of that train named Star. Everyone saw that coming a year in advance, some liked it (probably because the name recognition) others kept talking about how bad he was. Hopefully he can turn it around once the season starts.

 

None of the other contracts mentioned have much impact past this season.

 

Agreed on Starr. Waiting for real bullets to ply, but right now looks more of the same, just not living up to the hype. 

 

Correct, salary issues not a big deal moving forward, but we have more holes to fill. It’s just very frustrating from my perspective. Feels like we have WAY more than a single off seasons void of talent in 2018. I mean literally almost an entire OL. Either a major upgrade at RDE or DT (pass rush or run stop).  WR1, 2/3 (wherever Zay doesn’t fit if not both) One of SLW or WLB (I have moments where I like Dimarco a lot, but possibly both). CB 2 and 3, we’ve got nobody here. Plus depth at basically every single position. 

 

Feels vary daunting. 

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1 hour ago, njbuff said:

I think I would be ok with a total collapse this year, but knowing the Bills could possibly have TWO QB's they can win with as they improve the roster around them.

 

If the Bills start out badly, I would be open to trading McCoy and/or Clay for draft picks, but the cap may not allow that to happen.

 

Going off memory here.

 

i can’t think of a franchise that went from playoffs, to terrible, to consistently good (barring injury), under the same regime. Maybe Carolina? Indy, but Andrew Luck and Payton went down. I guess we’ll watch the Giants this year, but new regime. 

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2 hours ago, Mango said:

Darby- Strip steak. Not filet, but a good piece of meat and not cube steak. could be pricey down the line but we got it on sale with our EBT card.

 

Preston Brown- sliced honey baked turkey. Sure not your go to protein, but better than most deli meats. A reliable lunch product. 

 

Glenn- wheat bread. Expensive for bread. We don’t eat it much, but wish we did consume more because we know it’s good for us. Expensive to replace too.

 

Dareus- A piece of your wedding cake. Sure it’s not as good as the day you got married, but now you have to go out and buy another one so your wife doesn’t find out you tossed it. Now we’ve paid twice for it and have to look the wife in the eye and pretend it’s the same one, even though you both know it’s not. 

Regardless of whether I agree with you....love the analogy

 

Darby - White has more then replaced him.....I actually dont worry about corners too much (even though I hated how wide open receivers were in the Bengals game) when it comes to McD......he knows corners and we always seem to find good ones.....we own White on a rookie deal for years

 

Preston Brown.....a solid MLB who didnt fit McD's defense....he CANNOT COVER.....we are biulding the panthers defense where LB's are required to cover ppl and stay on the field in obvious passing downs....Edmunds is getting better every week and we own him on a rookie deal for years

 

Glenn.....underrated when healthy...the problem is he had a lower body injury and they needed to move him while they could use it to aquire draft capital.....which turned into Josh Allen.....finding a franchise QB is the mission now...that and this slow rebiuld.

 

 

5 minutes ago, Fadingpain said:

There was nothing quiet about this rebuild!  It was pretty damned loud, for anyone listening.

 

 

Its quiet because we made the playoffs.  Not too many teams make the playoffs in a rebiuld

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4 hours ago, C.Biscuit97 said:

I just love the narrative that a team that averaged 8 wins in the previous regime needed a rebuild. 

 

A team that is up against the salary cap and only averaging 8 wins is more in need of a rebuild than anyone. That's actually an even worse case than, for example, your long term franchise QB retiring. We were spending a ton of money and going nowhere fast. It was a 2 step rebuild. Step 1 was clearing the team of dead weight. Step 2 begins this year. This is year 1 of what most people would consider a traditional rebuild.

3 hours ago, ScottLaw said:

This.

 

I said this last year. They rid themselves of good players for the sake of them having nothing to do with those players and wanting to bring in their own guys. Just because Whaley drafted them doesn't mean they suck and it was the right move to get rid of them.

 

 

I'm genuinely curious Scott. Do you think when Beane and McDermott came in together they had their first meeting and decided they needed to get rid of all of Whaley's players no matter what? Do you think they ignored the salary cap problems altogether? How do you square that analysis with their decision to keep Shady, Mills, Incognito, Washington, Lawson, Hughes, and others left over from the last regime?

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12 minutes ago, John from Riverside said:

Regardless of whether I agree with you....love the analogy

 

Darby - White has more then replaced him.....I actually dont worry about corners too much (even though I hated how wide open receivers were in the Bengals game) when it comes to McD......he knows corners and we always seem to find good ones.....we own White on a rookie deal for years

 

Preston Brown.....a solid MLB who didnt fit McD's defense....he CANNOT COVER.....we are biulding the panthers defense where LB's are required to cover ppl and stay on the field in obvious passing downs....Edmunds is getting better every week and we own him on a rookie deal for years

 

Glenn.....underrated when healthy...the problem is he had a lower body injury and they needed to move him while they could use it to aquire draft capital.....which turned into Josh Allen.....finding a franchise QB is the mission now...that and this slow rebiuld.

 

 

Its quiet because we made the playoffs.  Not too many teams make the playoffs in a rebiuld

 

I actually agree with you on all of this. I just think we could get to the same spot, in say, year 3 of the regime, other than the way we went about it. 

 

Preston Brown. Never let of the long term plan, by for 4 mil, would make or LB’s better. And help Edmunds splitting time 

 

Dareus. Bad contract. Agreed. Cheaper to hold onto him for 2018 and he makes us better. Still have Harry. 

 

Glenn. This is tough. I don’t like the trade but I also totally get it. Unsure of future cap ramifications in moving him a year later. But he is currently being paid pretty similar the the OG in NE. It wasn’t a bad contract. 

 

Darby. This is fully self inflicted. Also I believe in McD with being able to coach a secondary. It just wasn’t necessary. Tre was supposed to replace Gilmore. But instead we are right where we started before the 2017 draft. 

 

I’d prefer our current roster plus the above, and saved cap space this year (and next), while addressing the other existing holes with said free money. All were dudes who are average or well above average starters in the league. I’m a huge proponent of don’t get rid of talent unless you have a viable replacement. We don’t/didn’t. Probably wasn’t clear enough about that in the OP. 

 

Cheers. 

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1 hour ago, C.Biscuit97 said:

There’s some BS narrative that AJ and Nate Peterman are easily upgrades over Tyrod and there is zero evidence of this.

 

There's only a few people on here that would tell you Peterman or McCarron are definite upgrades over Tyrod. Most probably feel the same way about it that I do. I already know Tyrod isn't franchise caliber. He had his 3 years. It's over. I don't know that about Peterman and McCarron yet. Well I'm pretty sure I know what McCarron is at this point, but definitely not Peterman. However small the probability he still has a chance to be a franchise caliber QB. I'd rather have that small chance than Tyrod's mediocre-at-best play.

2 minutes ago, Reed83HOF said:

and we already have the rookie QB...

 

Exactly. This season is what you normally see in year 1 of a rebuild. We hopefully drafted the franchise QB of the offense and the defense. We made a few veteran signings but mostly tried to fill our holes in the draft. We had an open QB competition between the rookie and 2 guys with experience. Next year we'll have cap space to build a contender if everything goes according to plan. That's what year 1 of a rebuild looks like. The problem is the last regime was so bad that we had to waste a year even getting to this point.

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9 minutes ago, HappyDays said:

Exactly. This season is what you normally see in year 1 of a rebuild. We hopefully drafted the franchise QB of the offense and the defense. We made a few veteran signings but mostly tried to fill our holes in the draft. We had an open QB competition between the rookie and 2 guys with experience. Next year we'll have cap space to build a contender if everything goes according to plan. That's what year 1 of a rebuild looks like. The problem is the last regime was so bad that we had to waste a year even getting to this point.

Christ. Thank you. Quoted for sanity.

 

 

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Darby - A Press Man cover corner who struggled in Zone situations. A player who also seemed to regress in his 2nd year. We received a 3rd Round pick and Jordan Matthews. Didn't fit the defense and we got a good return for him. Can't fault them for that. I believe we also parlayed that pick into Kelvin Benjamin. 

 

Dareus - Mental issues, issues with league discipline, issues with discipline in general, seemed to put it on cruise when he got paid, and didn't fit the mold of the type of players they were looking for on this team. McDermott preaches effort and competition. No one is safe. Not much of a return for him, but we dumped the dead weight. 

 

Glenn - I wanted to keep him, but I understand selling high on an often injured LT while you can. Especially if you feel you already have his replacement on the team. In their opinion Dawkins made him expendable. 

 

Preston Brown - Made a lot of tackles 5 yards or more down field. Only had 9 tfl last season. He was generally a liability in coverage as well. Preston was a solid player, but not one they felt they wanted to invest in long term. I get that as well. 

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3 minutes ago, HappyDays said:

 

There's only a few people on here that would tell you Peterman or McCarron are definite upgrades over Tyrod. Most probably feel the same way about it that I do. I already know Tyrod isn't franchise caliber. He had his 3 years. It's over. I don't know that about Peterman and McCarron yet. Well I'm pretty sure I know what McCarron is at this point, but definitely not Peterman. However small the probability he still has a chance to be a franchise caliber QB. I'd rather have that small chance than Tyrod's mediocre-at-best play.

You nailed it  Media clowns bringing up Tyrod is a joke.  If we had a top 5 defense and if we had a top 5 running game we could win with Tyrod and it would still be week to week depending on how well the other had a game plan. I'd rather have Allen and give him the next three years to show he can give the Bills a  legitimate chance to win any week against any opponent.  There were games the past three years that you knew it was over after one quarter once teams figured out Tyrod's limitations

 

Keep drafting the other holes and if Allen isn't the guy you go out and try again in 2021  Peterman is a stop gap of developmental #2 unless you can coach arm strength.  Drew Brees is one qb I can think of who came in with limited arm and a few years later could throw to the outside numbers

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