Allen Over Rosen Reminds Me of

[Chuck Schick]

It's COMPLETE speculation at this point, but all these comparisons that people seem to think are relevant (EJ, Whitner/Ngata, Maybin/Orakpo, etc) are completely irrelevant. 

If we hadn't chosen Allen, someone within 1or 2 picks of us would have.  This guy was a consensus top-10 pick and often top-5.   Not the case in any of those other comparisons.   

 

[CuddyDark]

1 hour ago, 26CornerBlitz said:

when the Bills drafted Whitner over Ngata and Maybin over Orakpo.   The fans made the right call in those cases over the Bills' Front Office.  

While I disagree with you on Rosen being an all time great, I actually agree with this.

Edited April 27, 2018 by CuddyDark

[hondo in seattle]

23 minutes ago, Rosen-not-Chosen said:

 

Maybe he has a 30% chance.

 

That's more or less fair.

 

So what's the historical win rate on 1st round QBs?  Maybe 50%?   So there's a gap of maybe 20%?

 

At this point the dice are in the air...  There's nothing to do except see how they land.  But until they do, in my mind, there's no need for pessimism.  

 

And I say that as a guy who would have also placed a different bet.  

36 minutes ago, 26CornerBlitz said:

 

That approach means every GM and coach in the NFL should not be critiqued for the moves they make solely because of the positions they hold. 

 

I see what you're saying 26CB but I have to defend 'die hard' on this.

(1) Beane is new.  He's built up a qualified scouting department.  And now they're doing their first draft.  Let's give them the benefit of the doubt.

 

(2)  Charlie Weis, among other NFL folks, think Allen has a lot of upside.  Let's wait and see.

 

(3)  We're Bills fans.  We're not fans of the other 31 teams so let's criticize the hell out of them while supporting our guys.  

[xxxxxxxx]

31 minutes ago, NewEraBills said:

 

It's going to be rough initially because I'm sure Rosen is going to be playing this year very soon given Bradford's history.

And come training camp and OTAs a QB we traded up for could be 3rd on the depth chart, facing a level of talent he has never seen before against the practice squad.

 

Rosen might not pan out, in the long term, either. But he's miles ahead of Allen with regard to his ability to start immediately. It could be 3-5 years and a regime change for us to have a shot at replacing this kid. 

Arizona will know what they have with Rosen much earlier, as he will likely see playing time this year.

 

And these timelimes matter, by the way, because they won't look for another QB as long as he's on the roster. When you trade into the top 10 you are married to that player, and your not going to draft anyone else for a while. 

 

And in the event that he becomes serviceable, we will lose his rookie pay scale years, and be forced to hand out a starter contract with very little sample size to go on. This is the kind of pick that might have made sense in the 80's, not today. Based on where they took him, he will be able to demand an inflated contract extension. And he will have to ride the bench for a year at least. 

 

Alot can go wrong here; the risk is just too big.

 

 

Edited April 27, 2018 by MURPHD6

[Dr.Sack]

Josh Allen will ensure this franchise leaves Buffalo. Maybe it’s all part of a sick plan. Allen is awful mechanically, and has zero ability to read a defense. 

[MiltonWaddams]

I'm not going to blindly cheer this team, this regime or this decision in regards to Allen. However, that kids arm is golden. He could be a star and I see why they did what they did. What they need now is a wr that can go get that ball because as it stands, our wrs are positioned to get the ball in Allen 's weakest areas.

[BillsSbSoon]

Rosen has been my guy for months, but i also have defended allen after watching him. My thought has been that hes not as inaccurate as you think, and a lot of it had to do with his wrs not getting separation. 

But rosen was right there for the taking. Id feel a lot better about this if he wasnt there. It was kind of soul crushing. I have a really bad feeling that its going to haunt this franchise for a long time.

[26CornerBlitz]

5 minutes ago, hondo in seattle said:

 

That's more or less fair.

 

So what's the historical win rate on 1st round QBs?  Maybe 50%?   So there's a gap of maybe 20%?

 

At this point the dice are in the air...  There's nothing to do except see how they land.  But until they do, in my mind, there's no need for pessimism.  

 

And I say that as a guy who would have also placed a different bet.  

 

I see what you're saying 26CB but I have to defend 'die hard' on this.

(1) Beane is new.  He's built up a qualified scouting department.  And now they're doing their first draft.  Let's give them the benefit of the doubt.

 

(2)  Charlie Weis, among other NFL folks, think Allen has a lot of upside.  Let's wait and see.

 

(3)  We're Bills fans.  We're not fans of the other 31 teams so let's criticize the hell out of them while supporting our guys.  

 

I have not said he'll be an unmitigated bust.  As a Bills' fan I hope my initial skepticism is proven wrong such that Allen becomes the star franchise QB the team has needed since Jim Kelly retired in 1996.  Cheers. 

[Mat68]

1 minute ago, BillsSbSoon said:

Rosen has been my guy for months, but i also have defended allen after watching him. My thought has been that hes not as inaccurate as you think, and a lot of it had to do with his wrs not getting separation. 

But rosen was right there for the taking. Id feel a lot better about this if he wasnt there. It was kind of soul crushing. I have a really bad feeling that its going to haunt this franchise for a long time.

Imo i think it comes down to who is the better fit with the team and region.  Injury concerns with Rosen are real.  He hasnt completed a full season in College.  Separated shoulder, and 2 concussions; the last knocking him out for 2 months.  

[Lurker]

36 minutes ago, dave mcbride said:

Good post, but I must confess that I've come around to the idea that Rosen is in fact an a-hole (ironically, through all of the media he's done recently to prove he's not one plus his ridiculous comments last night). He may be great, but he may also be Cutler Mach II.

 

Well, a great A-hole is better than a colostomy bag, IMO.     

 

Some of the greatest QBs were not the 'best buds' type guys we WNY's are known to love.    But NFL players will follow them if they can see the results on the field.   It's a rough, bottom line business, not a sing-along society...

[ToGoGo]

Different front office. Different owner. Same fans. 

[Lurker]

1 minute ago, musichunch said:

Different front office. Different owner. Same fans. 

 

Same results!  

[BADOLBILZ]

39 minutes ago, dave mcbride said:

Good post, but I must confess that I've come around to the idea that Rosen is in fact an a-hole (ironically, through all of the media he's done recently to prove he's not one plus his ridiculous comments last night). He may be great, but he may also be Cutler Mach II.

 

 

Yeah.........there has been a ton of smoke on this.........and I kinda' hope not because the league is more fun when there are good QB's.

 

The one we have to hope flops is Darnold.........who we both felt was the #1 prospect. 

 

I've said all along I really liked all 5 of the top prospects......................I don't think they just got a bum in Allen.........on the surface it feels like maybe we got Roethlisberger potential instead of Aaron Rodgers potential.    

 

ARodgers is arguably the best passer of the ball ever..........but Ben has won more SB's.     Just like Marino was a much better passer than Kelly but Kelly had more playoff success.

 

It could work out.    I'd be happier if they got Darnold or Rosen but man Allen is a very intriguing prospect and I LOVE the deep passing game so I feel upbeat about it.

 

  

[BillsSbSoon]

12 minutes ago, Mat68 said:

Imo i think it comes down to who is the better fit with the team and region.  Injury concerns with Rosen are real.  He hasnt completed a full season in College.  Separated shoulder, and 2 concussions; the last knocking him out for 2 months.  

I get all that but that doesnt mean he is going to keep getting hurt either. 

[keepthefaith]

20 minutes ago, Dr.Sack said:

Josh Allen will ensure this franchise leaves Buffalo. Maybe it’s all part of a sick plan. Allen is awful mechanically, and has zero ability to read a defense. 

 

Yup and at 21 years old he cannot possibly improve any part of his game.  He's already peaked.  Can't believe the front office can't see what casual fans easily see. 

 

 

[Gordio]

2 hours ago, 26CornerBlitz said:

when the Bills drafted Whitner over Ngata and Maybin over Orakpo.   The fans made the right call in those cases over the Bills' Front Office.  

 

 

This reminds me of when the Bills drafted Big Mike Williams over McKinney.  The smart money & the tape said to draft mount McKinney but TD was going to show everybody that he was the smartest guy in the room even though it meant drafting a lazy slob that never played on the left side before.

Edited April 27, 2018 by Gordio

[26CornerBlitz]

Just now, Gordio said:

This reminds me of when the Bills drafted Big Mike Williams over McKinney.  The smart money & the tape said to draft mount McKinney but TD was going to show everybody that he was the smartest guy in the room even though it meant draft a lazy slob that never plaid on the left side before.

 

Forgot to mention that one. 

[TPS]

2 hours ago, 26CornerBlitz said:

when the Bills drafted Whitner over Ngata and Maybin over Orakpo.   The fans made the right call in those cases over the Bills' Front Office.  

The front office then had a GED, vs these guys with a Ph.d.

[JohnC]

44 minutes ago, Kirby Jackson said:

Allen wasn’t my guy. Rosen has been my guy since before the 2017 draft and he was there for the taking. That was a little deflating for me.

 

I am going to support Allen though. I want the Bills to win. I’ve seen people on here calling him EJ and Losman. I don’t see that. Some people had Allen as high as 1. Apparently the Jets coaches were interested at 3, the Cardinals had him as their top guy, etc... This isn’t a guy like EJ that was a 3rd round project that got pushed up because of a terrible QB class. This guy was considered to be in the top tier of a strong QB class. His upside is either WAY higher than EJ & Losman or his bust potential WAY lower. That’s why he was more highly thought of coming in.

 

The idea of a boom or bust guy scares me but the price wasn’t excessive. My fear was a big overpay on a dice roll. Preserving that pick and getting Edmunds took some of the sting off. It is similar to looking back in the EJ pick and saying “at least we ended up with Shady from our extra asset.”

 

Additionally, the Bills kept their 2019 draft picks. I don’t think that this team is going to be good this year and that’s okay with me as long as Allen turns into the guy. They can enter the 2019 season with a young, talented QB, potentially great LB, $100M in cap space and a top 10 pick in one of the best DL drafts ever. They have a chance to have be great. Again though, it hinges on Allen being the guy. I hope that they are right.

Terrific post and thoughtful points. 

 

In general the evaluation of Allen by people associated with the business represents a consensus that he should be ranked with the upper tier. (As you noted.) There were teams that were for a long time seriously considering to be their first choice at qb. It was reported last night when Arizona moved up the board to draft Rosen that they attempted to move up the board to get Allen but didn't have the ammo to compete with our offer. So why are people so queasy about our selection? I think part of the reason is our EJ experience where a flaw related to accuracy was a fatal flaw. The Losman experience also has contributed to this same repeated sensation that we have about the concern for accuracy. For Bills fan there is a cumulative fear based on prior experience. 

 

I favored Rosen over Allen but wasn't as fearful of an Allen selection as much as others. (Bandito had a calming effect on me. ) I also understand why McBeane find Allen to be a better fit for the Bills than Rosen was. Was too much emphasis placed on being a fit rather than talent? Maybe for the other positions but it is certainly a critical issue when selecting your qb. 

 

The bottom line is I'm comfortable with the pick and I'm excited with the pick. But that doesn't mean that I don't have reservations about it. Only time will tell. 

[dorquemada]

1 hour ago, JMF2006 said:

Rosen is made of glass

 

 

this was my biggest concern too, he's going to get killed.  if you read the interview with him in ESPN mag, i came away feeling like he's a really smart young man with a bright future in or out of football, and if he gets his bell rung once or twice more he's going to walk away

[26CornerBlitz]

1 minute ago, TPS said:

The front office then had a GED, vs these guys with a Ph.d.

 

This is "these guys" first draft as a collective staff so it's premature to say what level they are at. 

[Manther]

1 hour ago, 26CornerBlitz said:

 

I hope like hell I'm wrong too, but what I've seen from the kid generates a healthy dose of skepticism. 

Agreed.  Cautiously optimistic.

[ToGoGo]

16 minutes ago, Lurker said:

 

Same results!  

 

Except for the whole playoffs thing

[BillsVet]

4 minutes ago, musichunch said:

Different front office. Different owner. Same fans. 

 

It's psychological at this point.  The "trauma" of having a first round pick not work out has made people have some sort of syndrome over trusting anything until it works out again.  That's especially the case when some fans look around and see other teams find their QB or experience real success.

 

The idea it's an apt comparison of 2002, 2006, or 2013 draft is laughable.  No one has to love it now, but expecting Allen not to pan out is a purely defensive thought process. 

[DrDawkinstein]

4 minutes ago, 26CornerBlitz said:

 

This is "these guys" first draft as a collective staff so it's premature to say what level they are at. 

 

So hate on them from the start? Cmon man, you're better than this thread.

[ToGoGo]

1 minute ago, BillsVet said:

 

It's psychological at this point.  The "trauma" of having a first round pick not work out has made people have some sort of syndrome over trusting anything until it works out again.  That's especially the case when some fans look around and see other teams find their QB or experience real success.

 

The idea it's an apt comparison of 2002, 2006, or 2013 draft is laughable.  No one has to love it now, but expecting Allen not to pan out is a purely defensive thought process. 

 

Right on. It's as if we're on year 19 of the drought. 

 

I'm also convinced 90%+ of fans did not watch more than 60 seconds of Allen film. They just never heard of him, heard he's completely raw, look at his completion %, don't know anything about Wyoming, and want to draft the guys they heard of, like Mayfield. 

 

I felt the same way UNTIL I watched the film. I saw what the NFL scouts saw. When I watched a few interviews with him I was sold. I've been rooting to trade up for him for weeks. 

[NewEraBills]

Honestly, as I revisit my thoughts and post from a week and a half ago, I don't know why I'm so surprised that Allen is the pick.  I guess I just didn't/don't want to believe myself.  I said a week and a half ago that the Bills would not take Mayfield if available, I also said the same regarding Rosen.  I said I didn't think they would take Rosen or Mayfield because they might have to clean up after them publically and that they did not seem like guys that represent the culture they have built and are building.  I then went on to say they had three guys and gave the order.  

 

Darnold

Allen 

Rudolph

 

That was my order.  I even said they'd probably take Rudolph over Rosen or Mayfield, not at a draft selection point but they'd just wait.  I honestly believe it now.  If they had lost on Allen, they would have taken Edmunds at 12 and then Rudolph later in rd 1.  I'm just mad that this was actually the case.  The disappointment and anger will wear off but right now ughhh.

[26CornerBlitz]

1 minute ago, DrDawkinstein said:

 

So hate on them from the start? Cmon man, you're better than this thread.

 

Don't give me that hate or you're better than this lecture. That's just to try to delegitimize someone's rightful feelings of the fact that this front office needs to prove it that over the long term.   I can't buy what you're selling. 

[TPS]

9 minutes ago, 26CornerBlitz said:

 

This is "these guys" first draft as a collective staff so it's premature to say what level they are at. 

There's enough evidence on Beane to support my comment. That said, he is now tied to the Allen pick, so we'll see if the rabble is right again...

[Fan in Chicago]

19 minutes ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

 

Yeah.........there has been a ton of smoke on this.........and I kinda' hope not because the league is more fun when there are good QB's.

 

 

 

  

 

Was thinking about this a couple of weeks back - for all the pissing and moaning a few years back about the lack of good QBs , a fair amount of talent has entered the league over the past few years. Wentz, Goff, Cousins, Prescott. Watson (Maybe Trubisky, Mahomes) and now this class. If 3-4 of the big 5 from this year turn out to be good, we can look forward to a decade of some pretty entertaining football. But I can readily sacrifice that competition as long as Allen is the one who does great

[26CornerBlitz]

Just now, TPS said:

There's enough evidence on Beane to support my comment. That said, he is now tied to the Allen pick, so we'll see if the rabble is right again...

 

That's too easy and too soon for me.  The long term success or failure of the franchise under him as the GM will be the tell.  

[ExiledInIllinois]

It reminds me of Jim Kelly over Tony Eason.

 

Yeah... Eason fluked them into an early Bowl... But he got hurt and kept getting hurt.

 

I still have my doubts, but big and strong win out in BFLo.

[JackKemp]

The Bills went after their man and went for it as many of us have been demanding. Just because he wasn't what each individual wanted doesn't mean too much. What I saw was a pretty divided base on who to pick. The Bills went with who they think in this draft was the best fit. Let's see if they are right. As many have said keep trying until you find the man. Who knows maybe McCarron is the man and the Bills trade someone for draft capital in the future. I don't drink the koolaid, but I certainly want to see how this pans out before I complain about it.

[Gordio]

6 minutes ago, musichunch said:

 

Right on. It's as if we're on year 19 of the drought. 

 

I'm also convinced 90%+ of fans did not watch more than 60 seconds of Allen film. They just never heard of him, heard he's completely raw, look at his completion %, don't know anything about Wyoming, and want to draft the guys they heard of, like Mayfield. 

 

I felt the same way UNTIL I watched the film. I saw what the NFL scouts saw. When I watched a few interviews with him I was sold. I've been rooting to trade up for him for weeks. 

 

 

I don't know man.  I have watched him quite a bit & there are a few things that concern me.  His accuracy & his ability to process information.  Even at the senior bowl where he struggled the first half but played better in the second half he said something to the effect of "I started figuring things out on what defense was doing in the second half."   Are you fuggin kidding me.  These defenses in the senior bowl play a vanilla defense with no blitzing.  If it takes him a half to figure that defense out, how is he possibly supposed to process a complex NFL defense with 250 pnd blitzing linebackers breathing down your ass.  I got my doubts, I hope the kid proves me wrong.

[zow2]

I would've gone with Rosen but Beane and McD have gone all in on Allen and have risked their entire careers and reputations on this pick.  They must have seen stuff they love, not just a big arm.  Josh Allen's college coach went on record last night as saying he will be an awesome pro QB and the Bills got the best QB in the draft, end of story.  Now he will be biased of course...but at this point I'm just gonna trust Beane and McD on this pick.  I have no other choice.    

[26CornerBlitz]

 

[dave mcbride]

36 minutes ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

 

Yeah.........there has been a ton of smoke on this.........and I kinda' hope not because the league is more fun when there are good QB's.

 

The one we have to hope flops is Darnold.........who we both felt was the #1 prospect. 

 

I've said all along I really liked all 5 of the top prospects......................I don't think they just got a bum in Allen.........on the surface it feels like maybe we got Roethlisberger potential instead of Aaron Rodgers potential.    

 

ARodgers is arguably the best passer of the ball ever..........but Ben has won more SB's.     Just like Marino was a much better passer than Kelly but Kelly had more playoff success.

 

It could work out.    I'd be happier if they got Darnold or Rosen but man Allen is a very intriguing prospect and I LOVE the deep passing game so I feel upbeat about it.

 

  

Good points. What's especially interesting to me about watching Allen going forward is the huge split over him. On one side are the scouts, gms, pro personnel guys, and media guys in that orbit (Mayock, Gil Brandt, even Kiper)  who deal with the human beings in college football (coaches, players, etc.) as part of their jobs on a near-daily basis, and on the other are the sabremetric types who run the numbers but don't really deal with the human element. 

 

The "football guys" love Allen almost to a person, yet the number crunchers -- again, almost to a person -- think he's a bust waiting to happen based on the metrics they use and the past success of such metrics. 

Who will be right? Who knows. But I do think it's the case that Allen may prove to be a bit of an outlier because he is quite literally the best specimen drafted at the QB position in this century, with only Roethlisberger coming close. The combination of arm strength, athleticism, massive physique, and extremely high wonderlic score (36) are unmatched, no?  That doesn't mean he's going to be good, but I just can't accept running some Kyle Boller numbers and making predictions based off of that. 

Edited April 27, 2018 by dave mcbride

[dollars 2 donuts]

2 hours ago, 26CornerBlitz said:

when the Bills drafted Whitner over Ngata and Maybin over Orakpo.   The fans made the right call in those cases over the Bills' Front Office.  

 

 

I am not going to lie, that is the first thing I thought of as well.  I will support the good completely, but that thought entered my mind...first.  

[Virgil]

2 hours ago, 26CornerBlitz said:

when the Bills drafted Whitner over Ngata and Maybin over Orakpo.   The fans made the right call in those cases over the Bills' Front Office.  

 

I’m a little bothered by how much we are on the same page right now. But also, without being condescending, am happy to see you actually putting something out there for yourself.  

[ToGoGo]

4 minutes ago, Gordio said:

 

 

I don't know man.  I have watched him quite a bit & there are a few things that concern me.  His accuracy & his ability to process information.  Even at the senior bowl where he struggled the first half but played better in the second half he said something to the effect of "I started figuring things out on what defense was doing in the second half."   Are you fuggin kidding me.  These defenses in the senior bowl play a vanilla defense with no blitzing.  If it takes him a half to figure that defense out, how is he possibly supposed to process a complex NFL defense with 250 pnd blitzing linebackers breathing down your ass.  I got my doubts, I hope the kid proves me wrong.

 

Have faith. He's a smart kid. Played for Wyoming. What he lacks is high-end experience. It's the old "I can" vs "I can't". "Lack of experience" vs "permanent inability". 

 

If you were a smart student who blossomed late and went to UB and did well, and then I threw you into a Harvard exam room, and you only started to figure things out during the 2nd exam, would you be mad if I said I had my doubts about you? Or would you rather I said "good, he's already figuring things out in his 2nd exam in the toughest conditions"?

 

He did better than any QB at the Senior Bowl, and he only started to figure things out in the 2nd half. That sounds like great potential to me. Highest Wonderlic score too. Rosen is a schlub if Allen reaches his full potential.