We May Need to Resign Ourselves to Allen at 5

[Midwest1981]

This is no endorsement; my greatest draft-related fear this spring has been trading a massive amount of assets to move up for the QB who actually NEEDS us to hold onto most of those assets because he (Allen) needs the most help (at least the Giants' refusal to trade out of 2 means it'll cost less than the Bills moving up to #5).  But my intuitive sense has been building for a while that Allen is who we'll have in our possession two nights from now.  Why do I feel that way?

 

The physical characteristics that would appeal to McBeane are obvious but include prototypical size (and then some), especially for the region of the country in which Buffalo plays, the fact that Allen is mildly reminiscent to Cam between his arm, escapability, and mobility (less mobile, clearly, but an even bigger arm- according to Trent Dilfer it isn't hyperbolic to say THE biggest arm the NFL has ever seen), AND more importantly Allen's humble and hard-working nature seems to embody the culture McBeane wants.  I personally really like Baker Mayfield but I feel the Bills feel he doesn't (he'll likely be gone by three, anyway).

 

Allen's play on the field- not just isolating last year, when Wyoming's offense saw many key defections- doesn't warrant being second on the Bills' board.... or any team's board.  But according to Charlie Casserly, who spoke to 24 different teams, Allen is the consensus #2 QB.  And superficially most of us would agree that's the building consensus, if we're being honest.

 

To Allen’s credit, he’s had a “clean” draft process and has impressed at every turn. Mind you, we’re taking about against a defense that isn’t allowed to blitz (Senior Bowl) and in a t-shirt and shorts (Combine and Pro Day). But some teams still see (what they believe to be) real progress.

 

And though it's dumbfounding (the durability concerns are valid; character concerns are overblown at best)... Josh Rosen just hasn't been able to shake matters related to likability and get teams to buy in.

 

http://bleacherreport.com/articles/2770325-love-and-football-nfl-insiders-on-the-josh-rosen-question-and-why-it-matters?share=twitter

 

Since it seems Darnold is still going 1st overall (if Benjamin Allright is vindicated), Baker's going 3 and has an incompatible personality anyway, and teams are generally lukewarm on Rosen... it leads to Allen.

 

Don't shoot the messenger.  But don't be surprised.  And brace yourselves for it.

Edited April 25, 2018 by Midwest1981

[Seanbillsfan2206]

I just farted and it kinda sounded “Rosen”. Coincidence? I’m not so sure...

[Lfod]

You will not make many friends talking like that. 

[Bill_with_it]

Please no.

[CNY315]

Jerk 

[RiotAct]

yup... I can definitely see Browns, Giants and Jets all going WB (and not wanting to trade down unless someone offers something totally insane).

[Midwest1981]

Credit to 26CornerBlitz for finding this and posting it in another thread presently on this first page, but this also confirms that Allen is the consensus #2 QB on teams' boards:

 

http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap3000000928334/article/2018-nfl-draft-qb-rankings-execs-like-sam-darnold-over-allen

[par73]

Allen is the one guy I would not touch in the first round (no idea how the Bills feel). I'd rather trade back than take him.

[Jay_Fixit]

I think the good news is this...

 

If the Bills are to choose one of Darnold, Mayfield, Rosen or Allen, there’s a 75% chance the Bills don’t select Allen.

 

So there’s that.

[Domdab99]

As I've mentioned before, trading up for Allen will only compound the disaster of picking him. If we're going to take a flyer on him, at least don't trade up to do it. 

[Midwest1981]

3 minutes ago, Jay_Fixit said:

I think the good news is this...

 

If the Bills are to choose one of Darnold, Mayfield, Rosen or Allen, there’s a 75% chance the Bills don’t select Allen.

 

So there’s that.

I think- for all intents and purposes- the Bills will have two choices, most likely:  Darnold won't figure into the equation since he'll go #1 and since the Giants are unyielding in terms of moving out of #2 one of Mayfield/Rosen isn't an option, either, since the Jets will take one.

 

If it comes down to the Josh's... 90% of the board won't like the surname uttered by Goodell in 45 hours, I fear.

2 minutes ago, Domdab99 said:

As I've mentioned before, trading up for Allen will only compound the disaster of picking him. If we're going to take a flyer on him, at least don't trade up to do it. 

I read your comprehensive post compiling all of the numbers-based (i.e. analytically driven and not subject to subjectivity/bias) reasons for avoiding Allen.  And I've come across all of those at one point this draft season.  

 

And I don't disagree.  I'm not saying I WANT this to happen- I just feel this is where this is headed.  

 

I don't know if having a couple of days to reconcile ourselves to it will lessen the blow.  Maybe, maybe not.  But please don't be caught off-guard.

 

I hope I'm wrong.

Edited April 25, 2018 by Midwest1981

[Domdab99]

I hope you're wrong, too!

 

I keep thinking that this FO is different, that Beane and McD know what they're doing...but then, I remember...it's still the Bills. 

 

So now I'm just assuming the pick will be Allen. I'm just praying they don't move up to 2 for him. 

[Adam727]

Allen at 5 has me nervous and is what I would consider to be the worst possible scenario on Thursday.  (Aside from Allen at 2 but I don't think that will happen)  If Darnold/Rosen/Mayfield are gone by 5 I'd rather the Bills wait and pick a QB at 12.  

 

I read somewhere today that the only 1st round QBs the Bills have ever drafted (aside from Jim Kelly) are JP Losman and EJ Manuel.  It seems almost cruel to start that cycle again with a big, athletic QB, great combine numbers, major accuracy issues but lots of "potential".  We've already had to go through that twice in the past decade or so, both times missing on multiple great QB prospects in future years while we waited for our guy to develop.  Only this time it would probably cost us 2 1sts and a 2nd to get to pick 5.   

 

 

 

[Jay_Fixit]

13 minutes ago, Midwest1981 said:

I think- for all intents and purposes- the Bills will have two choices, most likely:  Darnold won't figure into the equation since he'll go #1 and since the Giants are unyielding in terms of moving out of #2 one of Mayfield/Rosen isn't an option, either, since the Jets will take one.

 

If it comes down to the Josh's... 90% of the board won't like the surname uttered by Goodell in 45 hours, I fear.

I read your comprehensive post compiling all of the numbers-based (i.e. analytically driven and not subject to subjectivity/bias) reasons for avoiding Allen.  And I've come across all of those at one point this draft season.  

 

And I don't disagree.  I'm not saying I WANT this to happen- I just feel this is where this is headed.  

 

I don't know if having a couple of days to reconcile ourselves to it will lessen the blow.  Maybe, maybe not.  But please don't be caught off-guard.

 

I hope I'm wrong.

You see, I have a weird feeling the Jets will take Allen.

 

Its just a feeling. And if it happens, I’ll probably find the closest female, and impregnate her as if we were the last two humans on earth.

[starrymessenger]

I don't worry about Allen at 5 because I think Elway would draft and develop him.

[Fadingpain]

I'm PRAYING for Cleveland to take Allen #1 overall.

 

I don't think it's going to happen however.

 

 

[Midwest1981]

4 minutes ago, Jay_Fixit said:

You see, I have a weird feeling the Jets will take Allen.

 

Its just a feeling. And if it happens, I’ll probably find the closest female, and impregnate her as if we were the last two humans on earth.

I buy into Daniel Jeremiah's "opposite theory" as it concerns the Jets and Allen.  Two years in between just isn't enough time to get the fanbase to forget about drafting Christian Hackenberg, another QB with notorious accuracy issues (his are so bad that he hasn't even played a snap, not even when the Jets stopped caring about winning last year- he would've been that much of a disaster).

 

Allen would draw too many allusions to Hackenberg, especially since- at least at the moment- he's still on the Jets' roster.

 

Mayfield or Rosen aren't perfect prospects but accuracy and mental processing aren't concerns.

5 minutes ago, Fadingpain said:

I'm PRAYING for Cleveland to take Allen #1 overall.

 

I don't think it's going to happen however.

 

 

I know we all briefly had that hope last week... but I think that ship has sailed.  Cleveland's not saving us from ourselves.

[FearLess Price]

34 minutes ago, par73 said:

Allen is the one guy I would not touch in the first round (no idea how the Bills feel). I'd rather trade back than take him.

 

This. Kid dont have the acc or throwing attempts to justify a trade up. Think i would draft jackson at 12 instead

[Midwest1981]

I just came across this.  It's not a shock to see a pundit mention this but it could be confirmation of what's mostly my intuition, as well as putting a few things together in a not unnatural way.  I guess we'll see.

 

http://www.sportingnews.com/nfl/news/nfl-draft-rumors-news-2018-josh-rosen-baker-mayfield-seahawks-patriots/we39wjkoszkh1865uxzb1c7fp

 

— Mitchell Trubisky last year was a target of the Bills in a possible trade. Buffalo instead opted not to mortgage its future to move up and get him; it traded down and kicked the can down the road. This year, the Bills’ intention of drafting a quarterback has been clear since the middle of the regular season. They have evaluated Josh Rosen and Josh Allen, and I believe both have been considered throughout the process.

 

Almost everyone I’ve spoken with believes the Bills will find a way to draft Allen. Assuming he doesn't go first overall, they could do it with a trade up to No. 2, No. 4, No. 5 or No. 6.

Edited April 25, 2018 by Midwest1981

[ganesh]

38 minutes ago, par73 said:

Allen is the one guy I would not touch in the first round (no idea how the Bills feel). I'd rather trade back than take him.

He will not get past QB needy teams like Dolphins and Cardinals.

 

If going up to 5 or 6 to get him will cost us a 2nd and 3rd rounder, I think the Bills have to do it here. The bills have to keep trying to look for that franchise QB and draft when the opportunity presents itself.  May be they will get 3rd time lucky after Losman and Manuel

 

[Dadonkadonk]

My guess is “accuracy issues” has more letters in those two words than the total number of plays 99% of this board has seen Allen play.

[maryland-bills-fan]

Soooooo.   Charlie Casserly gets to peek at 24 of the team's big board.   Yep.  Of course.   The guy who picked Schuler 3rd knows a lot about QB's.  Do you really believe this?

[Midwest1981]

13 minutes ago, Dadonkadonk said:

My guess is “accuracy issues” has more letters in those two words than the total number of plays 99% of this board has seen Allen play.

I've seen him play.  And honestly, I was more impressed than I expected to be, especially purely looking at raw stats.

 

I still don't believe he belongs as the consensus #2 QB.

Edited April 25, 2018 by Midwest1981

[Bookie Man]

I think if EJ played in the Mountain West, he'd look very similar to Josh Allen. I think EJ might even look better. 

[maryland-bills-fan]

Allen didn't get any college offers after high school and went to the well-know powerhouse Reedley College.  After 2 years at that junior college, (playing against other programs like Monterey Peninsula College) he tried to get a scholarship to a 4 year school and had only two colleges interested.   He went to Wyoming (in the 7th best football conference) and his senior year the highest ranked team they beat was Colorado State, #83 nationally.  He had a 30 QB rating against Iowa and a 6 (six) rating against <<Colorado>>>  EDIT:  Should have written Oregon..   His completion percent was 53, & 56%. in the pros it goes down about 10%.  How in the heck is this guy a top 6 QB?  https://www.sbnation.com/nfl/2018/4/24/17271686/josh-allen-nfl-draft-2018-stats-analysis-comparisons

Edited April 25, 2018 by maryland-bills-fan

[Mat68]

I firmly believe Rosen is Buffalo's target.  Buffalo didnt bring in a starter or a mentor.  They brought in Mccarron to compete against the rookie.  The only guy I think walks into any team and expects to take the job day one is Rosen.  They dont risk him going somewhere else or falling.  3 1s to the gets for Rosen and a 5th.  

[Dr.Sack]

If this regime selects Allen & he fails they are out of jobs by 2020.

[NickelCity]

Well, we know what to pray wont happen. It will happen though, won't it?

Edited April 25, 2018 by NickelCity

[Peace Frog]

I would just as soon have the Bills use the 12th pick on either Rosen or Mayfield.

[USABuffaloFan]

2 hours ago, Midwest1981 said:

Credit to 26CornerBlitz for finding this and posting it in another thread presently on this first page, but this also confirms that Allen is the consensus #2 QB on teams' boards:

 

http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap3000000928334/article/2018-nfl-draft-qb-rankings-execs-like-sam-darnold-over-allen

Then I would wait till round 2 at 53 and take Rudolph, Lauletta or Falk. These guys can compete immediately with McCarron and Peterman, may the best man win but keep all 3.

1 hour ago, Fadingpain said:

I'm PRAYING for Cleveland to take Allen #1 overall.

 

I don't think it's going to happen however.

 

 

Allen by far has the biggest upside, could be Elway or Russell. His accuracy is what is questioned but he has a better TD to INT ratio than Darnold. Rosen has the best all around traits but has concussion and attitude issues. Darnold is the best prospect not to fail. Baker is the most ready as a rookie, pure athlete. 

16 minutes ago, Peace Frog said:

I would just as soon have the Bills use the 12th pick on either Rosen or Mayfield.

That was a convenient thing to say, how do they get there

[USABuffaloFan]

1 hour ago, Mat68 said:

I firmly believe Rosen is Buffalo's target.  Buffalo didnt bring in a starter or a mentor.  They brought in Mccarron to compete against the rookie.  The only guy I think walks into any team and expects to take the job day one is Rosen.  They dont risk him going somewhere else or falling.  3 1s to the gets for Rosen and a 5th.  

Actually that would be Darnold or Baker. Rosen may need a year to build body and put time from concussion issues. That is why he will go to the Jets who got TWO QB's to use before and give Rosen time.

2 hours ago, Domdab99 said:

As I've mentioned before, trading up for Allen will only compound the disaster of picking him. If we're going to take a flyer on him, at least don't trade up to do it. 

Unless Bills think Allen can compete immediately that will be a bad selection even if he can be had a 22. Rudolph, Baker, Darnold, Lauletta, Falk can at least compete immediately with Peterman and McCarron. I would stay far away from Jackson and his "skinny" core, just doesn't have a NFL body, Randall Cunningham all the way.

6 minutes ago, DougFlutie7 said:

I continue to believe Beane is not dumb enough to like Allen. Beane is to bright to hitch his wagon to a HUGE project. Beane is the only GM since John Butler that I thought knew what the hell he was doing. I wouldn’t draft Allen in the 7th round and I’m not joking. If they move up and select him I will lose all faith in this regime. And if he selects him over Rosen it’s gonna be like if the Colts selected Leaf over Manning. If I’m wrong I’m gonna need therapy. 

I agree because he knows Bills need allot more than a Franchise QB. I am sure McDermott is not writing 2018 off.

[GunnerBill]

2 hours ago, Jay_Fixit said:

You see, I have a weird feeling the Jets will take Allen.

 

Its just a feeling. And if it happens, I’ll probably find the closest female, and impregnate her as if we were the last two humans on earth.

 

Agree. I believe the Jets want Allen. 

[CaptnCoke11]

I like Allen a lot as a prospect.  He reminds me a lot of Big Ben when he came out of Miami Ohio.  

[8-8 Forever?]

4 hours ago, maryland-bills-fan said:

Allen didn't get any college offers after high school and went to the well-know powerhouse Reedley College.  After 2 years at that junior college, (playing against other programs like Monterey Peninsula College) he tried to get a scholarship to a 4 year school and had only two colleges interested.   He went to Wyoming (in the 7th best football conference) and his senior year the highest ranked team they beat was Colorado State, #83 nationally.  He had a 30 QB rating against Iowa and a 6 (six) rating against Colorado.   His completion percent was 53, & 56%. in the pros it goes down about 10%.  How in the heck is this guy a top 6 QB?  https://www.sbnation.com/nfl/2018/4/24/17271686/josh-allen-nfl-draft-2018-stats-analysis-comparisons

 

Agree.   I think they should stick at 12 and see who drops to them.   A franchise in a garden spot like Buffalo NY can only be built through the draft, where the guys have no choice but to play there for at least 4 or 5 years.   Just my two cents as since none of these QB prospects are sure bets, why blow the entire draft to bet on one of them? 

[billsredneck1]

4 hours ago, Peace Frog said:

I would just as soon have the Bills use the 12th pick on either Rosen or Mayfield.

that happening with either of those guys would be a gift from above for the bills. i prefer mayfield.

 

however, i wouldn't bet 10 cents on this happening.

[CSBill]

If we end up with Allen, I will be very happy--he has the most upside, and we have a QB who can hold the fort while he grows into the roll.

 

And to those that say the Bills will not be able to trade up, I agree---mainly because that takes a willing partner, and I do not see any team giving in, they will ask for a Kings Ransom, and I can't see us doing that.

 

So at 12, it's Jackson or Rudolph

Edited April 25, 2018 by CSBill

[eball]

It's really kinda said that if Allen becomes a Bill, it seems that about 80% of the fan base will already be waiting for him to fail -- even hoping he does so they can say "I told you so."

[YoloinOhio]

7 hours ago, Midwest1981 said:

This is no endorsement; my greatest draft-related fear this spring has been trading a massive amount of assets to move up for the QB who actually NEEDS us to hold onto most of those assets because he (Allen) needs the most help (at least the Giants' refusal to trade out of 2 means it'll cost less than the Bills moving up to #5).  But my intuitive sense has been building for a while that Allen is who we'll have in our possession two nights from now.  Why do I feel that way?

 

The physical characteristics that would appeal to McBeane are obvious but include prototypical size (and then some), especially for the region of the country in which Buffalo plays, the fact that Allen is mildly reminiscent to Cam between his arm, escapability, and mobility (less mobile, clearly, but an even bigger arm- according to Trent Dilfer it isn't hyperbolic to say THE biggest arm the NFL has ever seen), AND more importantly Allen's humble and hard-working nature seems to embody the culture McBeane wants.  I personally really like Baker Mayfield but I feel the Bills feel he doesn't (he'll likely be gone by three, anyway).

 

Allen's play on the field- not just isolating last year, when Wyoming's offense saw many key defections- doesn't warrant being second on the Bills' board.... or any team's board.  But according to Charlie Casserly, who spoke to 24 different teams, Allen is the consensus #2 QB.  And superficially most of us would agree that's the building consensus, if we're being honest.

 

To Allen’s credit, he’s had a “clean” draft process and has impressed at every turn. Mind you, we’re taking about against a defense that isn’t allowed to blitz (Senior Bowl) and in a t-shirt and shorts (Combine and Pro Day). But some teams still see (what they believe to be) real progress.

 

And though it's dumbfounding (the durability concerns are valid; character concerns are overblown at best)... Josh Rosen just hasn't been able to shake matters related to likability and get teams to buy in.

 

http://bleacherreport.com/articles/2770325-love-and-football-nfl-insiders-on-the-josh-rosen-question-and-why-it-matters?share=twitter

 

Since it seems Darnold is still going 1st overall (if Benjamin Allright is vindicated), Baker's going 3 and has an incompatible personality anyway, and teams are generally lukewarm on Rosen... it leads to Allen.

 

Don't shoot the messenger.  But don't be surprised.  And brace yourselves for it.

The Qb that appeals to Beane looks like Peterman and McCarron. They traded away a guy with Allen’s size and huge arm (Cardale) and mobility and big hands (Tyrod). No one knows if Cam is their prototypical qb, neither one made the call on drafting him. Better to look at the QBs they have actually wanted and not wanted since they arrived.

[DCOrange]

6 hours ago, Dr.Sack said:

If this regime selects Allen & he fails they are out of jobs by 2020.

This is probably the case no matter which QB they take

[elltrain22]

I don't fear Josh Allen  at all.  He is polarizing! I think many people, have wrote alot of negative stuff about Allen, and TBH, some  of this discussion  is valid  and does make  the reader pause &  reflect. Allen  is NOT at all, a perfect prospect, but none of this "big 4" is. Mayfield is small & has a flamible  personality, Rosen has durability issues, Darnold is a bit raw & makes poor decisions with the football especially in  the red zone, and Allen is innaccurate & his stats are not eye popping. 

 

Not only will I not be fearful, but I am hopeful for this kid. I know the odds, and I know we may pass up Rosen or another good QB that I like but I trust Beane, McDermott, and also know that this kid could be really, really good for a long time. There's alot to like and I will be Allen's biggest fan.