We May Need to Resign Ourselves to Allen at 5

[DCOrange]

6 hours ago, maryland-bills-fan said:

Allen didn't get any college offers after high school and went to the well-know powerhouse Reedley College.  After 2 years at that junior college, (playing against other programs like Monterey Peninsula College) he tried to get a scholarship to a 4 year school and had only two colleges interested.   He went to Wyoming (in the 7th best football conference) and his senior year the highest ranked team they beat was Colorado State, #83 nationally.  He had a 30 QB rating against Iowa and a 6 (six) rating against Colorado.   His completion percent was 53, & 56%. in the pros it goes down about 10%.  How in the heck is this guy a top 6 QB?  https://www.sbnation.com/nfl/2018/4/24/17271686/josh-allen-nfl-draft-2018-stats-analysis-comparisons

Josh Allen never played against Colorado and his completion percentage was never 53%.

[YoloinOhio]

5 minutes ago, DCOrange said:

This is probably the case no matter which QB they take

I don’t think so. The rookie may not play this year. If he did play in 2019 that would only be 1 year to determine if he “fails” - we all know that’s not enough. 

[Jobot]

7 hours ago, Midwest1981 said:

This is no endorsement; my greatest draft-related fear this spring has been trading a massive amount of assets to move up for the QB who actually NEEDS us to hold onto most of those assets because he (Allen) needs the most help (at least the Giants' refusal to trade out of 2 means it'll cost less than the Bills moving up to #5).  But my intuitive sense has been building for a while that Allen is who we'll have in our possession two nights from now.  Why do I feel that way?

 

 

 

Who said the Giants refused a trade?

 

My understanding is that the Giants are high on Barkley... so if Browns take him at 1, BIlls and Giants already have the details worked out for a trade.

[Buffalo_Stampede]

Last year they said accuracy, timing, and playing under center are QB skills that are important to them in a college prospect, nothing about arm strength. 

 

So this year it's about arm strength? That's why I don't see Allen, Jackson, or even Rudolph as a target. Mayfield as well could be put in this group as he played mostly in the gun like Rudolph and Jackson. . 

 

Darnold and Rosen are the targets. 

Edited April 25, 2018 by TheTruthHurts

[greeneblitz]

hahaha, "resign" you clowns kill me, we'd be lucky to land him, probably is gonna be the next Ben Rothlesberger, definitely has the highest ceiling in the draft and here we are a team that has had nothing but garbage at QB for 20 years.

I swear 90 percent of our fans don't watch a single game of a guy before you endlessly trash them, the guy makes a lot of lower percentage throws, yards in chunks, throws on the run, his accuracy looks just fine, get of the stat lines and watch the kid play.

[DCOrange]

10 minutes ago, YoloinOhio said:

I don’t think so. The rookie may not play this year. If he did play in 2019 that would only be 1 year to determine if he “fails” - we all know that’s not enough. 

My point is that the idea that Allen busts = front office overhaul isn't the case with just Allen. It's likely the case with whatever QB the front office ties itself to. The idea that the Pegulas would fire Beane if Allen busts but not if Darnold, Rosen, Mayfield, Lamar, Rudolph, etc. bust makes no sense.

[dollars 2 donuts]

7 hours ago, Midwest1981 said:

This is no endorsement; my greatest draft-related fear this spring has been trading a massive amount of assets to move up for the QB who actually NEEDS us to hold onto most of those assets because he (Allen) needs the most help (at least the Giants' refusal to trade out of 2 means it'll cost less than the Bills moving up to #5).  But my intuitive sense has been building for a while that Allen is who we'll have in our possession two nights from now.  Why do I feel that way?

 

The physical characteristics that would appeal to McBeane are obvious but include prototypical size (and then some), especially for the region of the country in which Buffalo plays, the fact that Allen is mildly reminiscent to Cam between his arm, escapability, and mobility (less mobile, clearly, but an even bigger arm- according to Trent Dilfer it isn't hyperbolic to say THE biggest arm the NFL has ever seen), AND more importantly Allen's humble and hard-working nature seems to embody the culture McBeane wants.  I personally really like Baker Mayfield but I feel the Bills feel he doesn't (he'll likely be gone by three, anyway).

 

Allen's play on the field- not just isolating last year, when Wyoming's offense saw many key defections- doesn't warrant being second on the Bills' board.... or any team's board.  But according to Charlie Casserly, who spoke to 24 different teams, Allen is the consensus #2 QB.  And superficially most of us would agree that's the building consensus, if we're being honest.

 

To Allen’s credit, he’s had a “clean” draft process and has impressed at every turn. Mind you, we’re taking about against a defense that isn’t allowed to blitz (Senior Bowl) and in a t-shirt and shorts (Combine and Pro Day). But some teams still see (what they believe to be) real progress.

 

And though it's dumbfounding (the durability concerns are valid; character concerns are overblown at best)... Josh Rosen just hasn't been able to shake matters related to likability and get teams to buy in.

 

http://bleacherreport.com/articles/2770325-love-and-football-nfl-insiders-on-the-josh-rosen-question-and-why-it-matters?share=twitter

 

Since it seems Darnold is still going 1st overall (if Benjamin Allright is vindicated), Baker's going 3 and has an incompatible personality anyway, and teams are generally lukewarm on Rosen... it leads to Allen.

 

Don't shoot the messenger.  But don't be surprised.  And brace yourselves for it.

 

 

No disrespect at all and it is a good analysis. However the only thing that comes to mind is Gilfoyle's response to seeing Jared's lip enhancement on this weekend's Silicon Valley.

 

Edited April 25, 2018 by dollars 2 donuts

[Midwest1981]

12 minutes ago, greeneblitz said:

hahaha, "resign" you clowns kill me, we'd be lucky to land him, probably is gonna be the next Ben Rothlesberger, definitely has the highest ceiling in the draft and here we are a team that has had nothing but garbage at QB for 20 years.

I swear 90 percent of our fans don't watch a single game of a guy before you endlessly trash them, the guy makes a lot of lower percentage throws, yards in chunks, throws on the run, his accuracy looks just fine, get of the stat lines and watch the kid play.

I shouldn’t be dignifying your flippant response, especially after you tacitly or explicitly called me a “clown.” But if you had really understood or read all that I wrote my entire take was not critical of Allen- he’s a great kid with phenomenal work ethic and drive, he has a very intriguing skill set which if harnessed could pay big dividends, and he’s had no missteps during this draft process and has impressed at every turn. 

 

Stull, the idea that his accuracy woes are mostly attributable to “lower percentage throws” has been debunked- ask for a source and I will share it. And to imply accuracy concerns are or have been manufactured... even ardent Allen supporters- even Jordan Palmer and Allen- have admitted it’s been an issue at times. It’s not a death knell but it isn’t conjured up out of thin air.

[CommonCents]

Everyone is so convinced that Allen is bad and the others are not. I just don’t get it. Majority of whom are just clinging to completion percentages and not much else. I hope all those same guys are against drafting Lamar Jackson.

[YoloinOhio]

18 minutes ago, DCOrange said:

My point is that the idea that Allen busts = front office overhaul isn't the case with just Allen. It's likely the case with whatever QB the front office ties itself to. The idea that the Pegulas would fire Beane if Allen busts but not if Darnold, Rosen, Mayfield, Lamar, Rudolph, etc. bust makes no sense.

I agree. I just think they will wait longer than 2020.

[Just Joshin']

6 hours ago, Peace Frog said:

I would just as soon have the Bills use the 12th pick on either Rosen or Mayfield.

Me too but not happening.  Wishing is not a draft strategy.

[Mat68]

5 hours ago, USABuffaloFan said:

Actually that would be Darnold or Baker. Rosen may need a year to build body and put time from concussion issues. That is why he will go to the Jets who got TWO QB's to use before and give Rosen time.

Unless Bills think Allen can compete immediately that will be a bad selection even if he can be had a 22. Rudolph, Baker, Darnold, Lauletta, Falk can at least compete immediately with Peterman and McCarron. I would stay far away from Jackson and his "skinny" core, just doesn't have a NFL body, Randall Cunningham all the way.

I agree because he knows Bills need allot more than a Franchise QB. I am sure McDermott is not writing 2018 off.

Baker has a smaller frame than Rosen.

[YoloinOhio]

Just now, Mat68 said:

Baker has a smaller frame than Rosen.

Rosen is bigger than Darnold too

[Midwest1981]

Just now, Mat68 said:

Baker has a smaller frame than Rosen.

Baker’s shorter but he doesn’t have a smaller frame- he’s more more compact and stronger and carries about the same weight Rosen does at 4” shorter. I still like both.

[Hapless Bills Fan]

8 hours ago, Midwest1981 said:

This is no endorsement; my greatest draft-related fear this spring has been trading a massive amount of assets to move up for the QB who actually NEEDS us to hold onto most of those assets because he (Allen) needs the most help (at least the Giants' refusal to trade out of 2 means it'll cost less than the Bills moving up to #5).  But my intuitive sense has been building for a while that Allen is who we'll have in our possession two nights from now.  Why do I feel that way?

 

The physical characteristics that would appeal to McBeane are obvious but include prototypical size (and then some), especially for the region of the country in which Buffalo plays, the fact that Allen is mildly reminiscent to Cam between his arm, escapability, and mobility (less mobile, clearly, but an even bigger arm- according to Trent Dilfer it isn't hyperbolic to say THE biggest arm the NFL has ever seen), AND more importantly Allen's humble and hard-working nature seems to embody the culture McBeane wants.  I personally really like Baker Mayfield but I feel the Bills feel he doesn't (he'll likely be gone by three, anyway).

 

Allen's play on the field- not just isolating last year, when Wyoming's offense saw many key defections- doesn't warrant being second on the Bills' board.... or any team's board.  But according to Charlie Casserly, who spoke to 24 different teams, Allen is the consensus #2 QB.  And superficially most of us would agree that's the building consensus, if we're being honest.

 

To Allen’s credit, he’s had a “clean” draft process and has impressed at every turn. Mind you, we’re taking about against a defense that isn’t allowed to blitz (Senior Bowl) and in a t-shirt and shorts (Combine and Pro Day). But some teams still see (what they believe to be) real progress.

 

And though it's dumbfounding (the durability concerns are valid; character concerns are overblown at best)... Josh Rosen just hasn't been able to shake matters related to likability and get teams to buy in.

 

http://bleacherreport.com/articles/2770325-love-and-football-nfl-insiders-on-the-josh-rosen-question-and-why-it-matters?share=twitter

 

Since it seems Darnold is still going 1st overall (if Benjamin Allright is vindicated), Baker's going 3 and has an incompatible personality anyway, and teams are generally lukewarm on Rosen... it leads to Allen.

 

Don't shoot the messenger.  But don't be surprised.  And brace yourselves for it.

 

I would be surprised.  I think there are one, possibly two, QB Beane will trade up for.  I don't think Allen is one of them - nor should he be.

When you are drafting a very promising player on his raw potential, I don't think you should sell the farm

[starrymessenger]

7 hours ago, Rise Up Lights said:

I think if EJ played in the Mountain West, he'd look very similar to Josh Allen. I think EJ might even look better. 

 

I think if Darnold played in the Mountain West on that Wyoming team working that offensive scheme behind that O-line with those receivers and running game he'd look very similar to Josh Allen. 

[Mat68]

3 minutes ago, Midwest1981 said:

Baker’s shorter but he doesn’t have a smaller frame- he’s more more compact and stronger and carries about the same weight Rosen does at 4” shorter. I still like both.

Disagree.  Bottom half of Rosen is thicker.  Mayfield has no room to get bigger.  Rosen could easily add 10 pounds.

[Acattack15]

Josh Allen is anything but a nightmare situation like the majority of you think. He's ultra talented and going to be a great pick. let him legitimately sit for 1 year (like 3rd string behind Peterman & Mccarron) and let him get comfrortable in the NFL lifestyle / NFL playbook. Then cut him loose in 2019. 

 

Long term investment. It will pay off if nutured correctly and given the necessary time/coaching he needs. Patience. 

[D. L. Hot-Flamethrower]

17 minutes ago, Dalton said:

Me too but not happening.  Wishing is not a draft strategy.

Remember, these guys are the top prospects for a reason. All the teams have looked at them with a fine tooth comb and decided who is most likely to succeed. Are they always right? No of course not. But, when you wait and wish for the number 4 guy, then you have had multiple other teams indicate that he is not #1 for them either. So multiple processes yielding the same result. Like it or not, the higher you're drafted also indicates the NFL teams, after running their process, think #1 is better than #4 and more likely to succeed. We know from research that teams drafting QBs in the top 5 are way more successful (50%), not great, but way better than down in the draft.

[FeelingOnYouboty]

We all grew tired of Tyrod Taylor because he couldn't throw guys open, had no anticipation and would leave the pocket too early and Beane has been adamant he wants someone who can throw from the pocket and is accurate. 

 

Then why on earth is Josh Allen even being considered? Because he's 6'5, 235 and has an elite arm?

[Midwest1981]

6 minutes ago, Acattack15 said:

Josh Allen is anything but a nightmare situation like the majority of you think. He's ultra talented and going to be a great pick. let him legitimately sit for 1 year (like 3rd string behind Peterman & Mccarron) and let him get comfrortable in the NFL lifestyle / NFL playbook. Then cut him loose in 2019. 

 

Long term investment. It will pay off if nutured correctly and given the necessary time/coaching he needs. Patience. 

I personally don’t characterize drafting Allen as a “nightmare situation”- it’s just not my ideal one and I find other options (whomever the Jets don’t select between Mayfield/Rosen) more appealing. 

 

I’ve had an openness to Allen and as a result I’ve warmed up to him more than I thought I would. But he still is going to require patience and exceptional tutelage, which I’m not sure we have (neither is Trent Dilfer- he said on WGR yesterday that our situation is the most worrisome from that standpoint).

Edited April 25, 2018 by Midwest1981

[FeelingOnYouboty]

Traded away all those talented players and passed on Patrick Mahomes for Josh Allen. I can't believe I've waited a year for this day.

[thebandit27]

The more panic I see on this board regarding Allen, the more I want Buffalo to draft him

 

And keep in mind, he's my QB4...that's how much I will enjoy studying his NFL career arc

[BigBuff423]

1 minute ago, thebandit27 said:

The more panic I see on this board regarding Allen, the more I want Buffalo to draft him

 

And keep in mind, he's my QB4...that's how much I will enjoy studying his NFL career arc

 

If it's Allen at 12, I'm fine with that....because at that point you really are Drafting potential. But trading up to #2 or even #4 where the Draft capital will be enormous, I'm not good with that scenario. Obviously, the Bills aren't asking me, but I wouldn't like it. Now, if Allen doesn't go #1 overall, I do think he slips to at least #5 and maybe even further. Again, if we're talking 7th, that's probably just a 3rd rounder this year and maybe a 4th 2019 or something like that....that I would like less than staying put, but I'm not marching OBD with pitchforks and torches. 

 

It's too far...and I'll be asleep. 

[FeelingOnYouboty]

5 minutes ago, thebandit27 said:

The more panic I see on this board regarding Allen, the more I want Buffalo to draft him

 

And keep in mind, he's my QB4...that's how much I will enjoy studying his NFL career arc

 

Drafting Josh Allen to own the libs

[Gordio]

7 hours ago, maryland-bills-fan said:

Allen didn't get any college offers after high school and went to the well-know powerhouse Reedley College.  After 2 years at that junior college, (playing against other programs like Monterey Peninsula College) he tried to get a scholarship to a 4 year school and had only two colleges interested.   He went to Wyoming (in the 7th best football conference) and his senior year the highest ranked team they beat was Colorado State, #83 nationally.  He had a 30 QB rating against Iowa and a 6 (six) rating against Colorado.   His completion percent was 53, & 56%. in the pros it goes down about 10%.  How in the heck is this guy a top 6 QB?  https://www.sbnation.com/nfl/2018/4/24/17271686/josh-allen-nfl-draft-2018-stats-analysis-comparisons

 

 

This sums it up for me.  His talent was not great around him but he wasn't playing against top talent.  Assuming Rosen/Darnold/Mayfield are unattainable, Stay pat at #12, take the BPA & at #22 take either Jackson or Rudolph, hopefully one of them will still be available. 

[YoloinOhio]

6 minutes ago, thebandit27 said:

The more panic I see on this board regarding Allen, the more I want Buffalo to draft him

 

And keep in mind, he's my QB4...that's how much I will enjoy studying his NFL career arc

I admittedly don’t wish for the Bills to take him BUT I would love to see him do well whatever he goes. He has really been bashed throughout the predraft process (not just here - everywhere!) more than any qb I can remember. I feel bad for him because I know he will get booed when he’s drafted. He seems like a great kid and will root for him to succeed wherever he lands (unless it’s our division)

[FeelingOnYouboty]

Just now, YoloinOhio said:

I admittedly don’t wish for the Bills to take him BUT I would love to see him do well whatever he goes. He has really been bashed throughout the predraft process (not just here - everywhere!) more than any qb I can remember. I feel bad for him because I know he will get booed when he’s drafted. He seems like a great kid and will root for him to succeed wherever he lands (unless it’s our division)

 

This is what makes it awful. He's such a nice kid. I want him to succeed because the NFL is littered with bad QB play and it makes the games unwatchable but I do not want to be the team that takes a chance on him.

[BuffaloHokie13]

If it's Allen, then yes. Someone will need to resign.

[thebandit27]

26 minutes ago, FeelingOnYouboty said:

 

Drafting Josh Allen to own the libs

 

Meh, forget "owning" anyone.  I want to watch how this kid develops; he'll be the most interesting case study in NFL history by a country mile.

[maryland-bills-fan]

39 minutes ago, BigBuff423 said:

 

If it's Allen at 12, I'm fine with that....because at that point you really are Drafting potential. But trading up to #2 or even #4 where the Draft capital will be enormous, I'm not good with that scenario. Obviously, the Bills aren't asking me, but I wouldn't like it. Now, if Allen doesn't go #1 overall, I do think he slips to at least #5 and maybe even further. Again, if we're talking 7th, that's probably just a 3rd rounder this year and maybe a 4th 2019 or something like that....that I would like less than staying put, but I'm not marching OBD with pitchforks and torches. 

 

It's too far...and I'll be asleep. 

No.   You draft potential in the late 2nd round at the earliest.   At #12 you get a lineman or linebacker who will be a starter for a decade and several times an all pro.

[HappyDays]

1 hour ago, greeneblitz said:

hahaha, "resign" you clowns kill me, we'd be lucky to land him, probably is gonna be the next Ben Rothlesberger, definitely has the highest ceiling in the draft and here we are a team that has had nothing but garbage at QB for 20 years.

I swear 90 percent of our fans don't watch a single game of a guy before you endlessly trash them, the guy makes a lot of lower percentage throws, yards in chunks, throws on the run, his accuracy looks just fine, get of the stat lines and watch the kid play.

 

You've said Josh Allen is a generational talent and Lamar Jackson is a receiver. You could work in the NFL, and I'm not joking.

[JohnC]

34 minutes ago, thebandit27 said:

The more panic I see on this board regarding Allen, the more I want Buffalo to draft him

 

And keep in mind, he's my QB4...that's how much I will enjoy studying his NFL career arc

I like Allen a lot. But I'm not convinced that he is the type of qb that you shed meaningful assets to move up for.  I would have no qualms giving up valuable picks to get Darnold, Rosen and Mayfield. When you watch the trio I mentioned you can be confident that their more refined skills can translate to the pros. You can't honestly say that about Allen. No question that Allen has physical attributes that are enticing. But his overall game is so raw that there is a legitimate concern as to whether his game will be develop to be considered a good franchise qb. 

 

 

[thebandit27]

2 minutes ago, maryland-bills-fan said:

No.   You draft potential in the late 2nd round at the earliest.   At #12 you get a lineman or linebacker who will be a starter for a decade and several times an all pro.

 

Because all-pro linemen and LBs are always the key pieces to winning Super Bowls

 

1 minute ago, JohnC said:

I like Allen a lot. But I'm not convinced that he is the type of qb that you shed meaningful assets to move up for.  I would have no qualms giving up valuable picks to get Darnold, Rosen and Mayfield. When you watch the trio I mentioned you can be confident that their more refined skills can translate to the pros. You can't honestly say that about Allen. No question that Allen has physical attributes that are enticing. But his overall game is so raw that there is a legitimate concern as to whether his game will be develop to be considered a good franchise qb. 

 

 

 

Of course I'd prefer to stick at 12 and get him, but that's very, very unlikely to happen.  You need to feel really comfortable that your grade between Allen and the guy you can get at 12 (which may or may not be Jackson) is close enough to wait.

[maryland-bills-fan]

1 hour ago, DCOrange said:

Josh Allen never played against Colorado and his completion percentage was never 53%.

https://www.sports-reference.com/cfb/players/josh-allen-7.html

 

I meant Oregon sorry. http://www.espn.com/college-football/player/gamelog/_/id/3918298/josh-allen

[CommonCents]

All aboard the Allen@5 train. Chooo choo. Watch a bit of him instead of just mindlessly bashing because you want YOUR guy. He is very much an option and should be. 

[JohnC]

Just now, thebandit27 said:

 

Because all-pro linemen and LBs are always the key pieces to winning Super Bowls

 

 

Of course I'd prefer to stick at 12 and get him, but that's very, very unlikely to happen.  You need to feel really comfortable that your grade between Allen and the guy you can get at 12 (which may or may not be Jackson) is close enough to wait.

You misinterpreted my post. I would be willing to go up for Allen if the organization had a conviction on him. But not to the extent that I would for the aforementioned trio. I would comfortably give up an extra first round pick, and even more, for the more polished trio . I would be more judicious in how I worked a deal for the bigger Josh. That's my point.  

 

I like Allen and I am intrigued by him. But it has to be acknowledged that there is a longer road he must travel before he can get to the point of being an authentic franchise qb. Is he a Blake Bortles with imposing measurable and uninspired play or is he a Roethlisberger whose physicality and understanding of the game influences the game?  

[CommonCents]

Just now, JohnC said:

You misinterpreted my post. I would be willing to go up for Allen if the organization had a conviction on him. But not to the extent that I would for the aforementioned trio. I would comfortably give up an extra first round pick, and even more, for the more polished trio . I would be more judicious in how I worked a deal for the bigger Josh. That's my point.  

 

I like Allen and I am intrigued by him. But it has to be acknowledged that there is a longer road he must travel before he can get to the point of being an authentic franchise qb. Is he a Blake Bortles with imposing measurable and uninspired play or is he a Roethlisberger whose physicality and understanding of the game influences the game?  

Blake Bortles much like EJ actually has to process how to make each throw. It’s painful to watch. I see nothing like that from Allen. I have watched a fair amount of him the past 3 days and I don’t see why everyone hates this kid. The way he throws outside the pocket is much more Big Ben than Bortles, he also moves much better than Ben ever did.

[JohnC]

1 minute ago, Commonsense said:

Blake Bortles much like EJ actually has to process how to make each throw. It’s painful to watch. I see nothing like that from Allen. I have watched a fair amount of him the past 3 days and I don’t see why everyone hates this kid. The way he throws outside the pocket is much more Big Ben than Bortles, he also moves much better than Ben ever did.

I want to make it clear that I like Allen and have been a proponent for him. But I'm not willing to invest the same amount of assets for him that I would for Rosen or Darnold. The issue is value judgment. There are qbs who when you judge them on their attributes they are off the charts. But how you play doesn't always rise to the level of one's parts. Again, I like Allen but what I would give up to get Allen is less than what I would give up to get Darnold or Rosen. That's basically my point. 

[thebandit27]

13 minutes ago, JohnC said:

You misinterpreted my post. I would be willing to go up for Allen if the organization had a conviction on him. But not to the extent that I would for the aforementioned trio. I would comfortably give up an extra first round pick, and even more, for the more polished trio . I would be more judicious in how I worked a deal for the bigger Josh. That's my point.  

 

I like Allen and I am intrigued by him. But it has to be acknowledged that there is a longer road he must travel before he can get to the point of being an authentic franchise qb. Is he a Blake Bortles with imposing measurable and uninspired play or is he a Roethlisberger whose physicality and understanding of the game influences the game?  

 

We are generally in agreement; I guess I'm more willing to both (a) give up assets and (b) be wrong about the kid.