How long will you give our new QB?

[bdutton]

1 hour ago, Commonsense said:

If it's Allen, Mayfield, Rosen or Darnold I will give them until halfway of 19'

 

 

Dallas Cowboys drafted Troy Aikman and started him for most of his rookie season.

 

They went 1-15 that season and Aikman threw 15 picks and only 9td's.  In his second season, the Cowboys went 7-9 with him as a starter and he threw 18 picks and only 11TD's.  In 1991, despite throwing only 11 TD's and 10 ints and played in 12 games.

 

Despite that he remained the starter and now he's a hall of famer.

 

Giving a top tier QB prospect only 1-1/2 years to develop is a mistake unless he is stinking it up so bat that he's an obvious failure.  Although with numbers like Aikmans, you'd think he could be a bust.

[The Crowing Rooster]

1 hour ago, Seanbillsfan2206 said:

Til he throws his first interception in training camp ?

How about OTA'S then?

[GunnerBill]

They get two years minimum from me before I call for their head..... that doesn't mean I will blindly only say positive things until then but I will be for them staying in and working through any struggles. 

[Hapless Bills Fan]

1 hour ago, K-9 said:

As long as it takes to know one way or the other. I like the old standard of 1,000 attempts. 

 

1000 pass attempts?

 

Just for calibration ....in an effective offense, that's approximately 2 years of attempts

 

Chargers gave up on Drew Brees and drafted Philip Rivers after 909 Brees attempts, after which he won comeback player of the year, they franchised him, then let him walk to NO.

 

Took Alex Smith about 1500 attempts to start looking like an effective NFL QB (in his 6th season, but of course he didn't play)

 

I'm not sure that's a good one-size-fits-all metric?  Might be enough for a pro-style college QB.

 

 

 

[Formerly Allan in MD]

Behind our current OL, about three snaps.

[macaroni]

It depends ... If the new QB is the one I wanted to draft, I will make excuses for three or four seasons as to why he isn't performing. If the new QB is one that I hate going in to the draft, I'm starting to B word, piss&moan from his first incompletion/interception until he's ridden out of town three or four seasons.

 

 

That's just the way we roll here at TBD.

[dollars 2 donuts]

After 12 games in one season we will have a strong idea.  After 24 games total I honestly think we will know the forever on a guy.

[PrimeTime101]

For my own sanity I have to believe the rookie will be better then AJ so I will say 1 year max or if AJ gets hurt.

[Hapless Bills Fan]

Well, for one QB and one fan at least, you have your answer.  They will give him "-6" days before his draft.

[Perk71]

1 quarter

[K-9]

1 hour ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

1000 pass attempts?

 

Just for calibration ....in an effective offense, that's approximately 2 years of attempts

 

Chargers gave up on Drew Brees and drafted Philip Rivers after 909 Brees attempts, after which he won comeback player of the year, they franchised him, then let him walk to NO.

 

Took Alex Smith about 1500 attempts to start looking like an effective NFL QB (in his 6th season, but of course he didn't play)

 

I'm not sure that's a good one-size-fits-all metric?  Might be enough for a pro-style college QB.

 

 

 

Nothing is one size fits all. The 1,000 attempts metric goes back decades in personnel circles as a general rule of thumb. Nothing is etched in stone though. Some teams and prospects see and need less, some see and need more before deciding. 

[reddogblitz]

2 hours ago, first_and_ten said:

 

Peterman will be a legend around here for years unless by some miracle he becomes great.

 

Anytime a QB throws 3 or more picks in a game, it will be known as "pulling a Peterman".

 

2 hours ago, sven233 said:

If it's Allen, he may not even be ready in 2 years........

 

Maybe it's just me, but the idea of trading up giving up serious draft picks for a guy that  is a project and very well may not even play at all in 2018 sounds plain crazy.

[Maine-iac]

A lot of this depends on the offense.  If we draft a QB and Daboll has them throwing for 250 or 300 yards a game and we are scoring 21 plus points but he throws a few picks type of deal I will feel like we can get it together.  If Daboll is super conservative and we push a rookie QB out there and he's throwing about as many times as Tyrod did but throwing more picks (because he's a rookie) and we are scoring 18 points a game and generally looking non competitive again I'm not going to blame the QB.  At the very least I'm not going to start with the QB.  Get an OC who knows how to run a competitive NFL offense.  We have just as much riding on our pick at OC as we do any pick at QB.

[Adam727]

5 hours ago, PromoTheRobot said:

Ah, spring. Just days before the draft, when a Bills fan's thoughts turn to franchise quarterbacks.

 

It's a given we will be taking one high, likely with a trade up. And of course the expectation is that QB will start immediately and be great.

 

But deep down we all know how this will play out. The fanbase is divided over who to take, even if we picked first. And whoever falls to us will be considered a consolation prize and a sign that Beane got cold feet with his trade up offers.

 

But we will end up with someone. And it's likely they will be uneven. Some good things, some bad. Opinions will be formed in OTA's and camp. Some will panic. Some will defend him.

 

So my question is how long do we fans give our new franchise QB before we start talking about the 2019 draft?

I would give any rookie QB a minimum of 3 years before declaring him a bust.  But I'd be looking for a viable plan B as early as the 2019 draft if I didn't like what i saw in 2018.  I'd rather waste a pick on a 2nd QB that we don't end up needing (and can trade later) than wasting 3 years if we end up drafting another JP Losman / EJ Manuel.  

[Bing Bong]

5 hours ago, Seanbillsfan2206 said:

I think McCarron starts no matter what. I’ll give him 4 games. Then it’s sink or swim time for the rookie

I don't think there's an unreasonable chance Mccarron plays just well enough to hold the job. Want to know what McD and co really think of him because they certainly play favorites at QB

[Boatdrinks]

33 minutes ago, PetermanThrew5Picks said:

I don't think there's an unreasonable chance Mccarron plays just well enough to hold the job. Want to know what McD and co really think of him because they certainly play favorites at QB

Definitely a decent chance a vet can beat out a rook at QB. At least intitially. Curious take on McD and co with QBs. Play favorites? The inherited QB that they didn't even really want started 15 of 16 games last season. 

[frostbitmic]

He'll be labeled a bust by 10% of the people here before he gets his bro hug from Goober Goodell.

 

Another 5% will label him a bust by the end of mini camp. Add another 5% by the end of training camp.

 

I'd give him this year as the chief clipboard holder, next year as a serious challenger to McCarron, and he should have the job won coming out of the gates in 2020.

[Maine-iac]

I love how we talk about  the huge need for a "franchise" QB but then think we can trade the 12th pick in the draft plus multiple other picks and then sit on our thumbs for years for them to be ready.  Either this is old school play defense and sound offense bring the QB along over several seasons or this is the trade everything for a "franchise" QB, all in, the only way NFL that most of this board thinks it is.  No way we are trading Cordy Glen, Dareous (essentially), plus the 12th pick in the draft to take a QB and then have a career backup start.  If he's that good of a QB he'll be able to play week 1 with my only exception being if the OC is again incapable of dialing up a game plan that can keep the other team from eating us alive. 

[Domdab99]

2, 3 games

[Bing Bong]

1 hour ago, Boatdrinks said:

Definitely a decent chance a vet can beat out a rook at QB. At least intitially. Curious take on McD and co with QBs. Play favorites? The inherited QB that they didn't even really want started 15 of 16 games last season. 

they really wanted to get Peterman in is all.

[Boatdrinks]

2 hours ago, PetermanThrew5Picks said:

they really wanted to get Peterman in is all.

Oh I disagree. I think the last thing that McD wanted to do is play a 5th round rookie in year one.While trying to stay afloat in a playoff race to boot.  Tyrod's struggles and refusal to throw the ball led to the desperate decision to start Peterman. McD is a very conservative coach, it really was sheer desperation. 

[MJS]

I'll give him for as long as he is the starter. Have to hope for the best going into each season.

[Hapless Bills Fan]

16 hours ago, PromoTheRobot said:

Ah, spring. Just days before the draft, when a Bills fan's thoughts turn to franchise quarterbacks.

 

It's a given we will be taking one high, likely with a trade up. And of course the expectation is that QB will start immediately and be great.

 

But deep down we all know how this will play out. The fanbase is divided over who to take, even if we picked first. And whoever falls to us will be considered a consolation prize and a sign that Beane got cold feet with his trade up offers.

 

But we will end up with someone. And it's likely they will be uneven. Some good things, some bad. Opinions will be formed in OTA's and camp. Some will panic. Some will defend him.

 

So my question is how long do we fans give our new franchise QB before we start talking about the 2019 draft?

 

Well, let's see.  We got one thread on the board talking about "LOLmar" and another talking about "Mayfailed"

So it would appear that in two cases at least, we are giving our new QB about -5 days.

 

SMH.  SMDH.

Edited April 22, 2018 by Hapless Bills Fan

[Doc Brown]

With our o-line right now, I'd play McCarron for the year no matter who we draft.  If we had a good o-line, Rosen is the only QB I'd start right off the bat. He's the only QB that's mechanics don't need that much work.  He also is the best at pre snap adjustments and reading defenses from what's been reported.  His concussions scare the hell out of me though.  I'd be happy with either Darnold or Mayfield if they fall out of the top 5 and we didn't give up too much to trade up for them.  Just stay away from Allen.

[mead107]

I game to see if he can match Peterman 

[LeGOATski]

Camp.

 

If he's throwing balls into the medical tent, I am done.

[26CornerBlitz]

9 minutes ago, LeGOATski said:

Camp.

 

If he's throwing balls into the medical tent, I am done.

 

Come on man, Hospitality Tent. 

[Rob's House]

One half. He gets treated like anyone else.

[OldTimeAFLGuy]

11 hours ago, frostbitmic said:

He'll be labeled a bust by 10% of the people here before he gets his bro hug from Goober Goodell.

 

Another 5% will label him a bust by the end of mini camp. Add another 5% by the end of training camp.

 

I'd give him this year as the chief clipboard holder, next year as a serious challenger to McCarron, and he should have the job won coming out of the gates in 2020.

 

..pretty conservative on those percentages bud..............

[Sammy Watkins' Rib]

I want to say three years. But EJ got far less than that so it very well could be 1.5 years.

18 hours ago, cd1 said:

I believe that there will be some here who will HATE the new QB on draft day and they will not stop until the Bills get a QB to their liking.

 

So.... the lines will be drawn on April 26th 2018

x10 if we end up with Allen, Jackson, Rudolph or any of the lesser known QBs.

[frostbitmic]

3 hours ago, OldTimeAFLGuy said:

 

..pretty conservative on those percentages bud..............

I was being kind and giving credit to fellow Bills fans .... Of course it may have been the rum.

[OldTimeAFLGuy]

3 minutes ago, frostbitmic said:

I was being kind and giving credit to fellow Bills fans .... Of course it may have been the rum.

 

 

....you've been exposed as "soft"...LMAO................as far as rum, just got back from Aruba with my kids....government declared a state of emergency...we drank the "one happy island" bone dry.........

[Gugny]

22 hours ago, PromoTheRobot said:

Ah, spring. Just days before the draft, when a Bills fan's thoughts turn to franchise quarterbacks.

 

It's a given we will be taking one high, likely with a trade up. And of course the expectation is that QB will start immediately and be great.

 

But deep down we all know how this will play out. The fanbase is divided over who to take, even if we picked first. And whoever falls to us will be considered a consolation prize and a sign that Beane got cold feet with his trade up offers.

 

But we will end up with someone. And it's likely they will be uneven. Some good things, some bad. Opinions will be formed in OTA's and camp. Some will panic. Some will defend him.

 

So my question is how long do we fans give our new franchise QB before we start talking about the 2019 draft?

 

Three practices!!!!!!!!!!!!

 

Seriously - I'd give him 16 starts to show that he's got it.  That doesn't mean 16 starts of tearing opposing defenses apart.  Doesn't mean that the Bills have to win 10 or more of the games.  It just means that he has to show that he's got what it takes to get to where a successful NFL QB needs to get in order to lead an offense.

 

I would say that, if he is, indeed, that good - that his second full season as a starter should show significant progress over his first.

 

If, after two full seasons of starting, said QB still looks like he isn't progressing, then I'd start to consider pulling the plug.

[OldTimeAFLGuy]

1 minute ago, Gugny said:

 

Three practices!!!!!!!!!!!!

 

Seriously - I'd give him 16 starts to show that he's got it.  That doesn't mean 16 starts of tearing opposing defenses apart.  Doesn't mean that the Bills have to win 10 or more of the games.  It just means that he has to show that he's got what it takes to get to where a successful NFL QB needs to get in order to lead an offense.

 

I would say that, if he is, indeed, that good - that his second full season as a starter should show significant progress over his first.

 

If, after two full seasons of starting, said QB still looks like he isn't progressing, then I'd start to consider pulling the plug.

 

...16?....here at TBD?.....seriously?......recommend donning your kevlar vest and getting in your fox hole pronto......

[Gugny]

3 minutes ago, OldTimeAFLGuy said:

 

...16?....here at TBD?.....seriously?......recommend donning your kevlar vest and getting in your fox hole pronto......

 

Believe me ... I was notoriously patient with EJ and got murdered over it on this site.  That led to me being less-patient with Taylor, but he was a 6th year pro.

 

That said, I don't expect McCarron to light it up right out of the gate.  But he is young and I think he would need to be REALLY bad for more than half of this season in order to get benched in favor of a true rookie.

 

As far as a true rookie is concerned.  I guess I'm looking at it like a Goff or Wentz situation.  Goff was pretty bad in his first season as a starter.  He had a lot of things going against him, but I'm really tired of making excuses for QBs.  Wentz did much better than Goff, but it's not like he was awesome.  But both QBs showed a lot of promise in losing efforts; then proved in year two that they were actually very good.

 

That's why I'm all about giving a true rookie the equivalent of a full season as, pretty much, a mulligan - as long as he shows that he's got the tools, smarts, leadership, etc.

[OldTimeAFLGuy]

1 minute ago, Gugny said:

 

Believe me ... I was notoriously patient with EJ and got murdered over it on this site.  That led to me being less-patient with Taylor, but he was a 6th year pro.

 

That said, I don't expect McCarron to light it up right out of the gate.  But he is young and I think he would need to be REALLY bad for more than half of this season in order to get benched in favor of a true rookie.

 

As far as a true rookie is concerned.  I guess I'm looking at it like a Goff or Wentz situation.  Goff was pretty bad in his first season as a starter.  He had a lot of things going against him, but I'm really tired of making excuses for QBs.  Wentz did much better than Goff, but it's not like he was awesome.  But both QBs showed a lot of promise in losing efforts; then proved in year two that they were actually very good.

 

That's why I'm all about giving a true rookie the equivalent of a full season as, pretty much, a mulligan - as long as he shows that he's got the tools, smarts, leadership, etc.

 

....nice assessment and valid reasoning IMO bud....patience is NOT a virtue in this joint (or others).....first I thought McCarron was worthy of a late draft flyer......nothing flashy, but a steady Eddie, cerebral game manager who went in the 5th....pretty sure there were high hopes when TT came on board as a four year understudy.....just hope McCarron's understudy tenure yields better, but I also think he has more prototypical skill set (whatever the hell that means today) versus TT's adaptation to the speed/complexity of the game at this level...a couple of quick EJ points.....oddly, OBD's FIRST choice was Genome Smith until they flew down to interview him and work him out.....plane ride home consensus was, "um no thanks"....so EJ was 2nd fiddle as Crusty Buddy was hell bent on a QB ( the patchwork era of the "over the hill" gang and people in positions NOT qualified for, soley based on RW's "trust")....I STRONGLY recommend SDS denies membership to our incoming rook QB for a period of no less than two years.....don't want the lad reading about the "BUST" label here followed by one leg over the Peace Bridge railing....Jesus.........

[LeGOATski]

6 hours ago, 26CornerBlitz said:

 

Come on man, Hospitality Tent. 

That, too.

 

No tents!

[blacklabel]

Like the very few educated, patient, understanding and well-informed board members here, he'll get roughly his first nine plays before I jump on here like a screeching lunatic demanding he be benched, the coaching staff terminated (by like, a real T-1000) and the front office demolished (with a real wrecking ball). And of course I'll squeal for the complete deconstruction of the entire franchise. 

 

Why? Because I'm an extremely important fan with many medium level business meetings and my stance on how much time the rookie deserves before being shown the door is the only one that counts. 

[Xwnyer]

One series and people on this board will label him a BUST

[Fadingpain]

I'd give one of the big name guys a LOT of time to develop.

 

AJ?  He doesn't get any special treatment.  If he is the QB and things go south, I'll be screaming for the hook to come out faster than you can say "Tyrod sucks."