20 Year Debate: Carucci in 1998 - Head vs. Arm

[BigBuff423]

Given the earnest and incessant debate on this message board about which QB the Bills should Draft, whether they should trade up, stay put or take one in the following rounds, I find it interesting that nearly 20 years ago to the day - April 5, 1998 - this same debate raged on, regarding the Colts #1 selection. The argument about taking a very gifted QB with all the physical traits a GM and HC would covet versus a QB with the mental acumen to play QB in the NFL but lacks the "wow" factor in the arm. 

 

It's not news breaking or anything revealing that such a debate continues, but that it continues with such zealous representation I do find interesting. Because, history does NOT seem to be on the side of physical ability when the mental acumen is missing. And please, do NOT turn this into a Lamar Jackson discussion as that has been beaten to death elsewhere. But, maybe more about the general idea of how a QB is valued in the Draft over how he is valued once the lights come on and the games matter. Brady is one who didn't have a great arm but there are others throughout history who've done well absent a great arm. Either way, I thought it was a nice topic of discussion given how salient this debate is to us as fans this Draft season. 

 

 

[ddaryl]

Awesome find

[GunnerBill]

Hahaha.  Classic Vic.  

[CA OC Bills Fan]

Great find, thanks for posting this.

 

i live about halfway between LA and San Diego. At the time, I mostly listened to San Diego sports talk radio. I remember after the Chargers traded to the #2 spot that most that called in were very afraid that the Colts could take Leaf and they’d either be “stuck” with P. Manning or would take a non QB.

[Original Byrd Man]

How fortunate for the Colts he wasn't involved with the selection process.

[Mojo44]

 The more things change ..........

[auburnbillsbacker]

Bill Polian said on NFL radio that after he worked out both Manning and Leaf he discovered that Manning actually had the stronger arm of the two.  This completely went against the narrative of the 2 QBs at that time.   

[wagon127]

Yeah, its why I'm ok with whoever the bills take at QB. I will wait to see what the guy can do on an NFL field, and not worry about what he did in college. I trust the process, that the Bills will make a sensible decision this year.

[BigBuff423]

31 minutes ago, ddaryl said:

Awesome find

 

Thanks but I can't take credit. Freezing Cold Takes posted it on Twitter.....so i didn't really do anything other than share it. Just found it interesting this same debate continues with heated arguments on both sides and yet arm talent rarely translates to being a good or great QB in the NFL unless you have it between the ears also....most don't. Most of the time you're always trying to play the middle: find a guy who has the mental sharpness to be a great QB and "enough" arm to get the job done. 

[buffalobloodfloridahome]

I would take head over arm all day long. Peyton really showed that in his last super bowl win. He had almost no velocity left and he was still dropping balls with accuracy and anticipation. I know their defense was legit and truly carried the team, but what have they done since he has been gone? His ability to play chess with the defense always made him dangerous. He should be a coach some day.

Edited April 6, 2018 by buffalobloodfloridahome

[jahnyc]

The Chargers have had an interesting history with QBs.  Rivers has been very good, Leaf was a bust and Brees left in free agency after a bad shoulder injury.  Rivers and Brees have been two of the best QBs over the last 10 plus years.

[dlonce]

57 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

Hahaha.  Classic Vic.  

 

There were a lot of people who thought Leaf was the best QB. Happens all the time and is going to happen in this draft.

Hindsight is 20/20.

There could be a guy not considered in the top 4 that will go on to have a better career than guys like Darnold/Rosen.

Then again,maybe not. It’s a crapshoot we hope the scouts and Beane have nailed.

[Call_Of_Ktulu]

Allen has the Brains and the Arm, if he fixes his footwork and accuracy he will be the best QB from this draft. Lot of ?????? marks from all the QB's in this draft. The feeling I get from the top 4 QB's is 2 will be great and 2 will be solid,  I don't think any will be a Ryan Leaf type QB.

[GunnerBill]

6 minutes ago, dlonce said:

 

There were a lot of people who thought Leaf was the best QB. Happens all the time and is going to happen in this draft.

Hindsight is 20/20.

There could be a guy not considered in the top 4 that will go on to have a better career than guys like Darnold/Rosen.

Then again,maybe not. It’s a crapshoot we hope the scouts and Beane have nailed.

 

Leaf was well before my time watching the league let alone trying to evaluate college prospects.  I don't agree the draft is a crapshoot though.  

[Over 29 years of fanhood]

3 hours ago, BigBuff423 said:

Given the earnest and incessant debate on this message board about which QB the Bills should Draft, whether they should trade up, stay put or take one in the following rounds, I find it interesting that nearly 20 years ago to the day - April 5, 1998 - this same debate raged on, regarding the Colts #1 selection. The argument about taking a very gifted QB with all the physical traits a GM and HC would covet versus a QB with the mental acumen to play QB in the NFL but lacks the "wow" factor in the arm. 

 

It's not news breaking or anything revealing that such a debate continues, but that it continues with such zealous representation I do find interesting. Because, history does NOT seem to be on the side of physical ability when the mental acumen is missing. And please, do NOT turn this into a Lamar Jackson discussion as that has been beaten to death elsewhere. But, maybe more about the general idea of how a QB is valued in the Draft over how he is valued once the lights come on and the games matter. Brady is one who didn't have a great arm but there are others throughout history who've done well absent a great arm. Either way, I thought it was a nice topic of discussion given how salient this debate is to us as fans this Draft season. 

 

 

 

Nailed it Vic.... head of the nail

[hondo in seattle]

The Browns were thinking like Vic when they drafted Johnny Football.  

 

Who will be this year's Leaf/Manziel?

Edited April 6, 2018 by hondo in seattle

[wagon127]

2 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

 

Leaf was well before my time watching the league let alone trying to evaluate college prospects.  I don't agree the draft is a crapshoot though.  

A crapshoot is a bit of an exaggeration. Unfortunately there are way to many variables that occur between draft day, and how long it takes for a player to hit their prime and establish who they are as an NFL player. Any GM could probably write a novel defending why they took a particular QB, but it takes the player to put in the work after he gets thrown a ton of money, and the team to find a way to get the most out of that player. Its as much of a crapshoot as drafting a fantasy football team. It doesn't mean you don't try to put in the work to draft what you feel will be a good team. Whenever the draft is over, its now time to go to real work. No matter who of the Top 6 QB's they take, I will be excited to see what that guy will do.

[CuddyDark]

7 minutes ago, hondo in seattle said:

The Browns were thinking like Vic when they drafted Johnny Football.  

 

Who will be this year's Leaf/Manziel?

Top choices are Allen and Rosen IMO.

[Tyrod's friend]

9 minutes ago, hondo in seattle said:

The Browns were thinking like Vic when they drafted Johnny Football.  

 

Who will be this year's Leaf/Manziel?

Sam Darnold - contrarian, sure, but that is the very definition of Leaf.

If Allen goes high enough, sure. But see him falling to the point where he isn't a LeafBust, but even if he goes high I don't think any team plays him day 1. 

There is almost no history of QBs with the limited track record of Sam Darnold being a long term success in the NFL. Add in his turnover issues, the likelihood that he'll be drafted very high? Some team is going to stick that guy as starting QB, day 1, and get destroyed.

[schoolhouserock]

Which of these QB prospects has the brain?

[MTBill]

3 hours ago, Call_Of_Ktulu said:

Allen has the Brains and the Arm, if he fixes his footwork and accuracy he will be the best QB from this draft. Lot of ?????? marks from all the QB's in this draft. The feeling I get from the top 4 QB's is 2 will be great and 2 will be solid,  I don't think any will be a Ryan Leaf type QB.

 

You can't fix accuracy.  Just like you can't coach brains or quickness.

 

Also - I read a great line by one of the QB Analysts, a QBs ceiling is his college stats.

Edited April 6, 2018 by MTBill

[Pete]

3 hours ago, jahnyc said:

The Chargers have had an interesting history with QBs.  Rivers has been very good, Leaf was a bust and Brees left in free agency after a bad shoulder injury.  Rivers and Brees have been two of the best QBs over the last 10 plus years.

Dan Fouts revolutionized the position

[K-9]

3 hours ago, dlonce said:

 

There were a lot of people who thought Leaf was the best QB. Happens all the time and is going to happen in this draft.

Hindsight is 20/20.

There could be a guy not considered in the top 4 that will go on to have a better career than guys like Darnold/Rosen.

Then again,maybe not. It’s a crapshoot we hope the scouts and Beane have nailed.

There wasn't ONE SCOUT or GM or ANY OTHER Pro Personnel professional who thought Leaf was a better QB prospect. Not one. That was a media driven narrative proffered by the talking head pundits with magazines and draft guides to sell.

 

Yes, there were a lot of people who thought Leaf was a better prospect, but nobody in the league did. 

[ddaryl]

1 hour ago, schoolhouserock said:

Which of these QB prospects has the brain?

 

 

Josh Allen

 

• Josh Allen: 37
• Josh Rosen: 29
• Sam Darnold: 28
• Baker Mayfield: 25
• Lamar Jackson: 13

[Tyrod's friend]

7 minutes ago, ddaryl said:

 

 

Josh Allen

 

• Josh Allen: 37
• Josh Rosen: 29
• Sam Darnold: 28
• Baker Mayfield: 25
• Lamar Jackson: 13

Is Allen's number meaningful?

No.

Above 16 isn't a realistic predictor of NFL ability in a QB. Failing to get to 16 is. Especially once you get above 20 the numbers become meaningless.  

[RyanC883]

What's Kyle L's number?  

 

If we cant' get Rosen or Mayifeld, I'd like him at 22.  

[ddaryl]

14 minutes ago, Tyrod's friend said:

Is Allen's number meaningful?

No.

Above 16 isn't a realistic predictor of NFL ability in a QB. Failing to get to 16 is. Especially once you get above 20 the numbers become meaningless.  

 

 

I was simply answering the question someone else had asked.

 

 

[jrober38]

Accuracy and the ability to read the field are the most important attributes for a QB.

 

Without those things, the rest doesn't matter. 

[Buffalo716]

2 hours ago, ddaryl said:

 

 

Josh Allen

 

• Josh Allen: 37
• Josh Rosen: 29
• Sam Darnold: 28
• Baker Mayfield: 25
• Lamar Jackson: 13

 

Wonderlic scores isn't the ultimate determiner of a QBs football IQ

 

though a very low score can be alarming 

[OldTimeAFLGuy]

9 minutes ago, Buffalo716 said:

 

Wonderlic scores isn't the ultimate determiner of a QBs football IQ

 

though a very low score can be alarming 

 

...wasn't Marino at 16?......

[KingRex]

I think the right answer is trade down, build a TEAM, and next tear follow the Pitts model where they built a TEAM and then traded up to acquire Big Ben as their franchise QB.

 

The current Bills roster simply has too many holes and one of the oldest rosters in the NFL that we need to build the TEAM first and then acquire the Franchise QB.

 

This strategy actually not inly give us a better chance of getting Ws this year but winning it all next year.

 

Might Darnold, one of the Josh;s or even Mayfield be THE franchise QB?  Maybe (but which one and quite frankly any of them might be Ryan Leaf.

 

The Jets have set a market rate of 3 v2nds for an early pick.  This Bills team will be so much weaker for the alleged Franchise QB if we have to trade both firsts to move up.  On the other hand, if we trade down and get even 2 seconds we not only strengthen the TEAM  even more but use one of the new 2nds to draft Rudolph or Jackson.

 

I love the idea of a 2018 Bills team with an offensive and defensive trench reinforcement AND 2 early round LB prospects AND McCarron, Peterman and a Rudolph or Jackson competition at QB with the 6 first thrre round picks and a couple of extra 2nds from trading down.

[Tyrod's friend]

 

33 minutes ago, OldTimeAFLGuy said:

 

...wasn't Marino at 16?......

He was. I'm pretty sure Kelly was as well.

It's a different time. Players didn't study for the exam, no one placed a great deal of importance on it. Today it's like the SAT. Jackson's score is a little crazy ... but then again, he didn't feel like running the 40 either. Maybe he decided that wasn't a test he really wanted to prep for. Who knows.

[TheElectricCompany]

With the benefit of hindsight in evaluating player, I am sure every analyst, coach or front office man out there has ate some major crow. 

[zonabb]

Been saying brains over brawn since Manning was at Tennessee and I followed that team religiously! You can't fix stupid, it's that simple. It's why I continue to argue for a 22 minimum Wonderlic at QB. The starting point for a SB winning QB is brains first. I'd never draft a sub-22. That 22+ includes an assessment of emotional intelligence/personality. Ration over emotion. Team over individual. Hard work over reliance on physical skills. Grit over shrinking violets. Then physical skills and to me, mechanics are huge. I think trying to "fix" major flaws developed and ingrained into QBs over their high school and college careers is a tall order. EJ has problems, they were never correct. He reverted to them in games. 

 

But metrics and analysis in the NFL is still behind the times. The eye test that results in teams falling in love with a guy like Josh Allen still dominates. 

 

 

[Meh.]

Manning got a 28 and Leaf got a 27. The "head" he's talking about has nothing to do with a test score. The "considerable discipline and maturity" - which one of the top 4-5 QBs this year is the standout in that regard?

[Lurker]

1 hour ago, Meh. said:

Manning got a 28 and Leaf got a 27. The "head" he's talking about has nothing to do with a test score. The "considerable discipline and maturity" - which one of the top 4-5 QBs this year is the standout in that regard?

 

I don't recall any of them being spoken of in those terms....

[Buffalo Barbarian]

17 hours ago, BigBuff423 said:

Given the earnest and incessant debate on this message board about which QB the Bills should Draft, whether they should trade up, stay put or take one in the following rounds, I find it interesting that nearly 20 years ago to the day - April 5, 1998 - this same debate raged on, regarding the Colts #1 selection. The argument about taking a very gifted QB with all the physical traits a GM and HC would covet versus a QB with the mental acumen to play QB in the NFL but lacks the "wow" factor in the arm. 

 

It's not news breaking or anything revealing that such a debate continues, but that it continues with such zealous representation I do find interesting. Because, history does NOT seem to be on the side of physical ability when the mental acumen is missing. And please, do NOT turn this into a Lamar Jackson discussion as that has been beaten to death elsewhere. But, maybe more about the general idea of how a QB is valued in the Draft over how he is valued once the lights come on and the games matter. Brady is one who didn't have a great arm but there are others throughout history who've done well absent a great arm. Either way, I thought it was a nice topic of discussion given how salient this debate is to us as fans this Draft season. 

 

 

 

Sounds like Rosen vs Allen

 

 

14 hours ago, schoolhouserock said:

Which of these QB prospects has the brain?

 

Mayfield

 

 

[bills11]

That just shows the seperation between the media and actual front office people...the Colts knew Manning was the better qb and people forget Manning before the neck injury had more than enough zip on his throws. The only media member who is kinda clued in to how the NFL front offices work is Mike Mayock. People often mistunderstand his rankings he doesn't rank QBs only on his views on them as a prospect he ranks them based on how people in front offices he talks to view them . Hence why he has Josh Allen so high cus NFL people think he can be coached up .

[BringMetheHeadofLeonLett]

Dan Marino's arm was smarter than his head. There are just some things you can't find an algorithm for. 

[ddaryl]

15 hours ago, Buffalo716 said:

 

Wonderlic scores isn't the ultimate determiner of a QBs football IQ

 

though a very low score can be alarming 

 

I really was just answering a question for another poster