The playoffs - actually within reach

[dave mcbride]

In the midst of all this dismal play, let's not forget two things: the Bills have a very reasonable shot to go to 6-4 on Sunday, and they have a decent shot to make the playoffs with a 9-7 record. The loss to the Saints was embarrassing, but it *was* to an NFC team. Going into Sunday's game, that's the game that was least harmful in terms of picking up a loss. Beat LA, Miami twice, and Indy, and they're duking it out with Baltimore for the final playoff spot. There really is no one else if that happens. The Jets are out of it, Miami will be out of it if the Bills beat Miami twice, Indy and Houston are out of it, Cincy and Cleveland are out of it, the Broncos are out of it, Chargers will be out of it the Bills beat them (they'll have seven losses and lose the head to head), and the Raiders will be out of it because they will lose to NE and KC in KC. The Bills have the head to head against Oakland.

 

Basically, if the Bills take care of business against three teams that are really no better than them (but not much worse, if at all), they will make the playoffs if the Ravens lose to Detroit and GB. That is a huge if, of course. Below is the Ravens schedule the rest of the way. It is unfortunately very easy. If they beat GB and lose to Detroit (or vice versa) and the rest of my predictions hold, they'll go in because they'll have a better conference record (8-4) than the Bills (7-5).   You hope against hope that the Browns at home will put up a battle against them, but I wouldn't count on it.  They should beat GB, but it is in GB and it's not as if the Ravens are a great team. That said, they're coming off a bye and facing a team starting Brett Hundley.

At Green Bay (50/50)

At home against Houston (win)

At home against Detroit (50/50)

At the Steelers (loss)

At the Browns (win)

At home against Indy (win)

At home against Cincy (win)

Edited November 13, 2017 by dave mcbride

[BuffaloBill]

I still say the Bills need to win 10 if they wish to assure themselves of anything.  You are correct that Baltimore has an easier path to get there.

 

BTW - I do not agree with you that the fish represent two likely wins for the Bills

[Bangarang]

It’s that time of the year again where the Bills are still mathematically in the playoff picture but their play on the field tells us not to get our hopes up.

[dave mcbride]

1 minute ago, ScottLaw said:

Ugh. 

 

Extreme wishful thinking considering how overmatched they've looked the past two weeks. 

 

The freaking Jets dominated them. Not just beat, they DOMINATED them. 

 

The Bills offensive Line and front 7 have to be among the worst if not the worst in the league. 

It's not really wishful thinking. It's recognition of how bad the middle of the pack in the AFC is. Miami lost 40-0 to Baltimore the last time they played! They are a bad team, although I am certainly not chalking up the Bills game in Miami as a win. The Chargers find new ways to lose every week; they are bad. Indy is bad. The Bills have shots in all four of those games despite being not very good.

 

Aside from the Ravens, who has a realistic shot to go 9-7 besides the Bills? The Ravens will not end up better than 9-7 either.  A 9-7 team will get in.

[row_33]

17 minutes ago, dave mcbride said:

In the midst of all this dismal play, let's not forget two things: the Bills have a very reasonable shot to go to 6-4 on Sunday, and they have a decent shot to make the playoffs with a 9-7 record. The loss to the Saints was embarrassing, but it *was* to an NFC team. Going into Sunday's game, that's the game that was least harmful in terms of picking up a loss. Beat LA, Miami twice, and Indy, and they're duking it out with Baltimore for the final playoff spot. There really is no one else if that happens. The Jets are out of it, Miami will be out of it if the Bills beat Miami twice, Indy and Houston are out of it, Cincy and Cleveland are out of it, the Broncos are out of it, Chargers will be out of it the Bills beat them (they'll have seven losses and lose the head to head), and the Raiders will be out of it because they will lose to NE and KC in KC. The Bills have the head to head against Oakland.

 

Basically, if the Bills take care of business against three teams that are really no better than them (but not much worse, if at all), they will make the playoffs if the Ravens lose to Detroit and GB. That is a huge if, of course. Below is the Ravens schedule the rest of the way. It is unfortunately very easy. If they beat GB and lose to Detroit (or vice versa) and the rest of my predictions hold, they'll go in because they'll have a better conference record (8-4) than the Bills (7-5).   You hope against hope that the Browns at home will put up a battle against them, but I wouldn't count on it.  They should beat GB, but it is in GB and it's not as if the Ravens are a great team. That said, they're coming off a bye and facing a team starting Brett Hundley.

At Green Bay (50/50)

At home against Houston (win)

At home against Detroit (50/50)

At the Steelers (loss)

At the Browns (win)

At home against Indy (win)

At home against Cincy (win)

 

you are aware the QB of the opponent is out against the Ravens for the top 3 games, right????

 

[dave mcbride]

3 minutes ago, Bangarang said:

It’s that time of the year again where the Bills are still mathematically in the playoff picture but their play on the field tells us not to get our hopes up.

They're actually in the playoffs if the season ends today. My hopes are not up, but I am conscious of how bad the AFC is right now. 

[Alphadawg7]

There is no question that the playoffs are very much in reach for any team sitting on a 5-4 record right now in the AFC.  

 

That being said, the team that has shown up the last 2 weeks has about a 0% chance of making the playoffs with the schedule that lies ahead.  This team has been DESTROYED and utterly DOMINATED at the line of scrimmage on BOTH sides of the ball the last 2 weeks.  On D, that makes the secondary jobs substantially harder and almost impossible to be effective at when you get no pressure up front and completely gashed in the run game and screens.  And on offense, it has completely taken away what was supposed to be a strength of this team and that is the run game.  Not to mention, its disrupting the passing game because the best counter is a quick drop and fire attack and thats not the strength of QB or WR's.  

 

So, while looking at a 5-4 record, our playoff hopes look to be in code red critical and as important as the Saints game was, this Charger game could be for our season hopes.  We lose this game and I see no path to the playoffs with NE twice, and KC still on the schedule.  What once looked like a beatable Pats team now looks like the Pats we are used to...meanwhile the promising Bills team and the stout D has reverted to 2015/2016 status without the potent rushing game to go with it.  Bad D, no run game, is not something TT will carry to the playoffs.  

Edited November 13, 2017 by Alphadawg7

[BuffaloMatt]

Just when I thought I was out you pulled me back in! Kudos mcbride kudos.

Edited November 13, 2017 by BuffaloMatt

[Best Player Available]

IDK, slipping in the backdoor as a wildcard. And then go somewhere like KC and get thrashed 47-3. IMO I would rather see 18 years, than the pain of getting demolished on the road. Because this team will not host a WC game. 

[dave mcbride]

4 minutes ago, row_33 said:

 

you are aware the QB of the opponent is out against the Ravens for the top 3 games, right????

 

? - Rodgers is out, but Stafford and Roethlisberger aren't. 

[Steptide]

After yesterday I lost all hope of playoffs. I'm afraid the Chargers may destroy us this Sunday. Maybe not as bad as the saints, but I can see a 27-13 loss this week. I've lost all confidence in Taylor 

[dave mcbride]

Just now, Best Player Available said:

IDK, slipping in the backdoor as a wildcard. And then go somewhere like KC and get thrashed 47-3. IMO I would rather see 18 years, than the pain of getting demolished on the road. Because this team will not host a WC game. 

Your standards are way to high. I'll take any playoff game at this point, no matter the outcome.

[Bangarang]

4 minutes ago, dave mcbride said:

They're actually in the playoffs if the season ends today. My hopes are not up, but I am conscious of how bad the AFC is right now. 

Based on the last 2 weeks I’d say our playoff chances are in critical condition. The rest of our schedule is against AFC so if we continue to look bad then those chances will be on life support rather quickly.

[CommonCents]

It's the time of year where good teams win and bad teams lose. As the contenders start to show themselves the Bills have quickly made themselves irrelevant. This weeks game is a must win. 

 

From reading up on SD this Eckler kid sounds like another match up nightmare for our cement foot LB's.

[dave mcbride]

1 minute ago, Steptide said:

After yesterday I lost all hope of playoffs. I'm afraid the Chargers may destroy us this Sunday. Maybe not as bad as the saints, but I can see a 27-13 loss this week. I've lost all confidence in Taylor 

The Chargers are not good despite some real talent! Go check out their message boards (if they exist); I guarantee you that people are bitching about how bad they are. They give away so many games.

3 minutes ago, Alphadawg7 said:

There is no question that the playoffs are very much in reach for any team sitting on a 5-4 record right now in the AFC.  

 

That being said, the team that has shown up the last 2 weeks has about a 0% chance of making the playoffs with the schedule that lies ahead.  This team has been DESTROYED and utterly DOMINATED at the line of scrimmage on BOTH sides of the ball the last 2 weeks.  On D, that makes the secondary jobs substantially harder and almost impossible to be effective at when you get no pressure up front and completely gashed in the run game and screens.  And on offense, it has completely taken away what was supposed to be a strength of this team and that is the run game.  Not to mention, its disrupting the passing game because the best counter is a quick drop and fire attack and thats not the strength of QB or WR's.  

 

So, while looking at a 5-4 record, our playoff hopes look to be in code red critical and as important as the Saints game was, this Charger game could be for our season hopes.  We lost his game, I see no path to the playoffs with NE twice, and KC still on the schedule.  What once looked like a beatable Pats team now looks like the Pats we are used to...meanwhile the promising Bills team and the stout D has reverted to 2015/2016 status without the potent rushing game on top of that.  

Agreed that if the Bills lose in LA, the season is utterly over.

[Southern Bills Fan]

Everything really rides on this week. A win would get us in good position, a loss and we're done. The NFL is so week to week that hopefully we can regain the form we had earlier in the year.

[Foreigner]

There are a lot of delusional people out there. If you had made the thread, will the Bills win another game this year,then that

would be open to debate.

[dave mcbride]

1 minute ago, Foreigner said:

There are a lot of delusional people out there. If you had made the thread, will the Bills win another game this year,then that

would be open to debate.

There are a lot of people out there who are pretty uninformed about how crappy the AFC is this year beyond the top tier.

[ctk232]

9 minutes ago, Southern Bills Fan said:

Everything really rides on this week. A win would get us in good position, a loss and we're done. The NFL is so week to week that hopefully we can regain the form we had earlier in the year.

Agreed - except what earlier season form? You mean our defense? It's not likely they regain energy lost at their age. If the DLine can't stop the run the rest of the defense will suffer. Remains to be seen how you can address such a shift in play this late in the season post trade deadline.

 

But our offense hasn't exactly "won" any games for us this year, especially not in a convincing manner. Turnover differential bouncing our way and limited mistakes helped us win those 5, but it's slowly becoming more true that those losses at Carolina and Cincy weren't "one-offs" but games where our offense showed it's true colors unmasked by turnover diff.

[thenorthremembers]

12 minutes ago, Southern Bills Fan said:

Everything really rides on this week. A win would get us in good position, a loss and we're done. The NFL is so week to week that hopefully we can regain the form we had earlier in the year.

This is 100% right.  The Chargers have an easy back end of the schedule and they are very well balanced.   If you lose this weekend it wont be over statistically, but its over in reality.

[Albwan]

You mean there's still a chance??

 

/golf clap

[Hapless Bills Fan]

1 hour ago, dave mcbride said:

In the midst of all this dismal play, let's not forget two things: the Bills have a very reasonable shot to go to 6-4 on Sunday, and they have a decent shot to make the playoffs with a 9-7 record. The loss to the Saints was embarrassing, but it *was* to an NFC team. Going into Sunday's game, that's the game that was least harmful in terms of picking up a loss. Beat LA, Miami twice, and Indy, and they're duking it out with Baltimore for the final playoff spot. There really is no one else if that happens. The Jets are out of it, Miami will be out of it if the Bills beat Miami twice, Indy and Houston are out of it, Cincy and Cleveland are out of it, the Broncos are out of it, Chargers will be out of it the Bills beat them (they'll have seven losses and lose the head to head), and the Raiders will be out of it because they will lose to NE and KC in KC. The Bills have the head to head against Oakland.

 

Basically, if the Bills take care of business against three teams that are really no better than them (but not much worse, if at all), they will make the playoffs if the Ravens lose to Detroit and GB. That is a huge if, of course. Below is the Ravens schedule the rest of the way. It is unfortunately very easy. If they beat GB and lose to Detroit (or vice versa) and the rest of my predictions hold, they'll go in because they'll have a better conference record (8-4) than the Bills (7-5).   You hope against hope that the Browns at home will put up a battle against them, but I wouldn't count on it.  They should beat GB, but it is in GB and it's not as if the Ravens are a great team. That said, they're coming off a bye and facing a team starting Brett Hundley.

At Green Bay (50/50)

At home against Houston (win)

At home against Detroit (50/50)

At the Steelers (loss)

At the Browns (win)

At home against Indy (win)

At home against Cincy (win)

 

Oh, Gawd.  I just don't want to hear it. 

First things first.  Stop the f**king run.  Put some pressure on the opposing QB.  Avoid the stupid penalties on O.  Do those things, and we might actually win a game.  Or two.  Or four.

Go on as we've gone for the last two games and there's just no point.  We no way look like a team that can beat a dead horse, much less a marine mammal.

 

[BillsPride12]

Please refer to my avatar

 

I decided to make this my avatar last year because I was tired of having to post the picture every year at this time now more convenient 

[Jauronimo]

1 hour ago, Steptide said:

After yesterday I lost all hope of playoffs. I'm afraid the Chargers may destroy us this Sunday. Maybe not as bad as the saints, but I can see a 27-13 loss this week. I've lost all confidence in Taylor 

I've lost all confidence in this defense.  I expected Tyrod to be maddeningly inconsistent although I thought his floor was higher than we saw yesterday.  This season rested squarely on the defense playing like a top 5 unit.  The Chargers might not attempt a pass and still beat us by 2 or 3 scores.

[Jobot]

Your mistake is assuming any games are perceived as a 50/50 shot for Buffalo to win...  This team = 7-9

[Marv's Neighbor]

Playoffs? WTF are you smoking???

[Rico]

Nice post, Dave, I agree that it all depend on what happens this week in LA, we’ll see if McD can turn this around. I’m not sure about the Ravens though, they have been putrid this year and I can easily see them losing games they should win... especially if they spot the other team any kind of a lead.

 

As for making the playoffs and getting waxed in the first round, that doesn’t matter to me, just get there... it’d be a nice start.

[SoTier]

39 minutes ago, dave mcbride said:

There are a lot of people out there who are pretty uninformed about how crappy the AFC is this year beyond the top tier.

 

Did you watch any of the games against the Jests and/or Saints?  I seriously doubt it or you wouldn't have started this thread.  The Bills will be lucky to win another game this season.

[dave mcbride]

Just now, SoTier said:

 

Did you watch any of the games against the Jests and/or Saints?  I seriously doubt it or you wouldn't have started this thread.  The Bills will be lucky to win another game this season.

Did you watch the Ravens lose 44-7 to Jacksonville? Miami lose 40-0 to Baltimore? Those are the competitors we're facing.

3 minutes ago, Rico said:

Nice post, Dave, I agree that it all depend on what happens this week in LA, we’ll see if McD can turn this around. I’m not sure about the Ravens though, they have been putrid this year and I can easily see them losing games they should win... especially if they spot the other team any kind of a lead.

 

As for making the playoffs and getting waxed in the first round, that doesn’t matter to me, just get there... it’d be a nice start.

Yup!! I trust you about the Ravens, of course.

[leonbus23]

"The future of the future is the present" Marshall McLuhan

 

Edited November 13, 2017 by leonbus23

[Pirate Angel]

Even if we make a push for the playoffs..it just further stretches out the tyrod taylor era...I cant it anymore having him at the helm isnt worth breaking the playoff drought. Not that it matters he cant win a meaningful game

[LABILLBACKER]

1 hour ago, ScottLaw said:

Ugh. 

 

Extreme wishful thinking considering how overmatched they've looked the past two weeks. 

 

The freaking Jets dominated them. Not just beat, they DOMINATED them. 

 

The Bills offensive Line and front 7 have to be among the worst if not the worst in the league. 

I'm still trying to figure out how we won 5 games so far. There will be no miraculous turnaround or playoffs this year. Continue the rebuild.

[TheFunPolice]

Rivers has been known to be a giving man when it comes to INTs and fumbles... So you never know

 

The bigger issue is that the AFC is terrible this year, outside of NE. The Patriots are almost guaranteed to represent the AFC in the Super Bowl. KC isn't going to beat them when it really matters, and I don't think Brady has ever lost to the Steelers. That's about it, unless the Jags D can rough them up enough and Bortles forgets that he's Blake Bortles. Whoever finishes 5th and 6th is just cannon fodder.

 

But then again, that's why you play the games. Anyone can have the game of their life any week, so get into the tournament and see what happens. Baltimore could very well lose to GB, regardless of whether it's Hundley or Rogers.

 

[Foreigner]

Every member of the organization and every fan should be embarressd because of the  last two

non competitive games. Why would anyone want to think about playoffs when we were

outscored 81-10 (without 3 garbage time TDs) I get it, we all want better, but this team is the laughing

stock of the league now. Could they beat the Browns, 49ers or Giants now?. This was to be

expected with all the talent sent packing, and McDermott actually had the b---s to say today he

still believes in his buddy from Carolina, Mike Tolbert. 

[dave mcbride]

1 minute ago, Foreigner said:

Every member of the organization and every fan should be embarressd because of the  last two

non competitive games. Why would anyone want to think about playoffs when we were

outscored 81-10 (without 3 garbage time TDs) I get it, we all want better, but this team is the laughing

stock of the league now. Could they beat the Browns, 49ers or Giants now?. This was to be

expected with all the talent sent packing, and McDermott actually had the b---s to say today he

still believes in his buddy from Carolina, Mike Tolbert. 

Because if the season ended today they'd be in the playoffs, and their primary contenders for the 6th spot have suffered equally embarrassing losses. 

[Rico]

9 minutes ago, dave mcbride said:

Did you watch the Ravens lose 44-7 to Jacksonville? Miami lose 40-0 to Baltimore? Those are the competitors we're facing.

Yup!! I trust you about the Ravens, of course.

Well I hope I’m right lol. Most Ravens fans I know are down on this year’s team, especially regarding Flacco/Marty M. I can see them losing this week at Lambeau if the Packers D shows up.

[SlimShady'sSpaceForce]

2 hours ago, Bangarang said:

It’s that time of the year again where the Bills are still mathematically in the playoff picture but their play on the field tells us not to get our hopes up.

And the common denominator the last 2 seasons is .......

 

lack of a passing game. 

[Sweats]

As of today, believe it or not, we are still the number 6 spot for the WC.

 

Shocking, i know.

[The Jokeman]

If we can win games that we're supposed to win, (see San Diego, vs Miami, vs Indy and at Miami) and can some how pull off a win at KC or vs NE or at NE) than I like our chances. Yet if we lose to an expected team than the playoffs are good as done. 

[BillsPride12]

41 minutes ago, The Jokeman said:

If we can win games that we're supposed to win, (see San Diego, vs Miami, vs Indy and at Miami) and can some how pull off a win at KC or vs NE or at NE) than I like our chances. Yet if we lose to an expected team than the playoffs are good as done. 

I'm more confident we find a way to lose one of the games were supposed to win than we pull off a win v.s. KC or NE