Who the Bills will pick at 10

[PIZ]

Sidney Jones or Corey Davis.

[Pete]

I am thinking that OJ Howard is in play if we stay at 10. Howard, Clay, Sammy, Shady could be great!

[Hurricane]

Sidney Jones...

[Mikie's Bills]

You have to wonder if Peppers would be the perfect fit for McDermott's Defense? In the mold of Thomas Davis and Shaq Thompson as a S/LB hybrid.

 

I know he hasn't graded well in coverage in college with the lack of PBU's/INTs and stuff (not sure if that had more to do with what his role was or if it was just a knack for not making plays on the ball?) but he did show off some nice ball skills and field awareness at the combine I thought.

 

I probably wouldn't take him at 10, and DB/WR are probably bigger needs than a S/LB hybrid, but I think he is a dark horse candidate, since it seems we're not really targeting speedy LBs in FA.

[Cash]

Unless the Bills think a true star is there at 10 (a Luke Kuechly type), I'd like to see them trade down, and then maybe trade down again. I know the draft trade value chart has problems, but I think teams still mostly go by it. #10 is worth 1300 points. I feel like I'd rather have #35, #45, and #60 (total 1300) than #10.

 

Part of that is because I think we need a lot of starters and key depth players. But part of that is because we've see the Gilmore Cycle happen a few times - we draft someone in the first round, usually fairly high, and they wind up pretty good. Not so great that we definitely need to sign them to a market-setting contract, but definitely a good player. But since they were such a high pick, the only way to re-sign them is to give them a big contract. If we keep them, we have a good player, but maybe at too high a price. If we let them walk, maybe it's the sound Moneyball decision, but we still lost a good player that we now need to replace. This can happen with any player, but it's most likely with first-rounders, especially high ones.

 

That's why I think positional value is very important at the top of the draft, especially for a crappy team like ours. If you're a SB contender, you have the luxury of trying to grab that last missing piece without worrying about down-the-road implications. But if we draft someone at #10 and only have them for 5 years (a la Gilmore), it's a bad pick. If you draft a safety at #10, he'd better have a chance at being Earl Thomas-level. If you just draft a safety because you need a safety, you wind up with Donte Whitner. Who was a decent player, but basically had to be overpaid because he was drafted so high.

 

Likewise with a WR - I don't want them to take one at #10 because you don't draft a #2 WR that high. And there's no way to do all 3 of:

 

1.) Keep Sammy long-term

2.) Keep #10 draft pick long-term (if he pans out)

3.) Afford to have depth at other positions

[BillsFan17]

Here is something I might be reaching on, but... not for nothing- in 2015 we supposedly went hard after Bulaga to upgrade the RT position. This year we were tied to the best RT option on the market.

 

I get the sense that someone like Ryan Ramczyk could possibly be in play. I don't advocate taking OL high in the firsy round, but there is a chance he's the BPA when we pick.

 

Also would lend it self to the idea that we really do want to improve the right side of the line.

[Chuck Wagon]

Someone who'll be kind of good, but the fans won't like because they won't smile big enough when drafted and will end up missing 30% of his rookie deal due to injury before we'll ultimately let them walk or vastly overpay to retain.

Edited March 11, 2017 by Chuck Wagon

[BuffaloFan68]

My personal preference for the 10th:

1) Mahomes - QB

2) Watson- QB

3) Williams - WR

4) Davis - WR

[spillerhighlife]

I'm interested to see what the community thinks the bills will do with their 1st round pick. This poll is meant to represent what we think the bills will do and not what we want the bills to do.

 

Feel free to explain the process you used to determine your vote.

 

It is also cool to speculate the specific player the Bills will select with their first round pick.

 

Be mindful of projected draft slots and where players are speculated to be selected.

Edited March 13, 2017 by spillerhighlife

[DDD]

With Whaley who the heck knows?

[boyst]

i'd be curious if you simply added a second question

 

offense or defense.

[Steve Billieve]

Don't think they'll take a qb, maybe 25%

[FireChan]

WR. Whaley is still deathly afraid of taking a QB and our WR's suck.

[spillerhighlife]

With Whaley who the heck knows?

Put yourself in Whaley's shoes and make a decision. If you think he is clueless then make a clueless decision.

[thunderingsquid]

CB Lattimore.

[boyst]

WR. Whaley is still deathly afraid of taking a QB and our WR's suck.

he's also failed at drafting wr's and might not want to take heat for drafting another one too early.

it'll depend on the draft board, but i can see him going defense and letting it look more like a mcd choice.

[spillerhighlife]

i'd be curious if you simply added a second question

 

offense or defense.

Good idea. Done.

[KellyToughII]

I say WR at this point. We can get damn good db's in the 2nd and 3rd round

[Logic]

It's got to be either CB, S, or WR. I went with WR simply because the depth at the CB and S positions is supposed to be excellent. I don't see the WR class being nearly as deep. Furthermore, it makes sense to have a WR2 on a cheap deal for the next 5 years (1st round players get 5th round contract option) since we're about to spend a boatload on Sammy next season.

WR in the 1st, FS in the 2nd, CB in the 3rd looks great to me.

Edited March 13, 2017 by Logic

[FireChan]

he's also failed at drafting wr's and might not want to take heat for drafting another one too early.

it'll depend on the draft board, but i can see him going defense and letting it look more like a mcd choice.

Gaping hole at WR2 right now. I just don't see any other player than Davis or Williams being the pick if either are there.

[Kirby Jackson]

I think that they go WR. I wouldn't be surprised at a DB either. Anything else (with the exception of Foster) would surprise me at this point.

[Kkspike]

Corner Sidney Jones out of Washington.

[Kirby Jackson]

Corner Sidney Jones out of Washington.

Blew out his Achilles yesterday...

[boyst]

Gaping hole at WR2 right now. I just don't see any other player than Davis or Williams being the pick if either are there.

there are plenty of wr's worth waiting for being that we will likely need as good of a slot guy as we'd need someone outside. i do wonder and haven't thought much of watkins being moved inside.

 

so we can wait on wr.

 

as far as oj howard, every draft sim i run has good te's there in the 2nd or 3rd. as long as we avoid leggett, i'm happy. i'm not a big fan of howard at 10. i am at 20-22.

 

safety has a slow learning curve. getting one who can contribute day 1 is going to be tough. hooker won't make the 10th pick, but if he did i'm all over it. otherwise, maybe lattimore @ CB.

I think that they go WR. I wouldn't be surprised at a DB either. Anything else (with the exception of Foster) would surprise me at this point.

looking down the draft boards and knowing the learning curve - it's much more palatable to draft defense early and know they're clearly better than waiting just 1 round. top 10 db vs. mid round 2nd or 3rd is a big drop off.

 

slot wr's - even if we got an outside guy from DeVry or ITT Tech we can move him inside. i'd almost prefer we go large big body and move him inside. i've always wanted to do this.

 

but still, give me defense who can contribute day 1 over a wr who won't be much different from a 1st round to 2nd round level of talent. the quality at wr this year is strong and everyone of them has a bruise.

[BuffaloRebound]

Go get a pass rusher. Giants are the team who've always given Patriots most trouble because they knocked the hell out of Brady. Solomon Thomas reminds me of a young Justin Tuck. Versatile DL who lives in the backfield.

[wppete]

WR or CB in the first.

[BobbyC81]

i'd be curious if you simply added a second question

 

offense or defense.

 

The 2 aren't linked. Just for kicks I went WR and then defense and it took it.

[Yo no se]

I wouldn't go WR with the first pick. We don't throw the ball enough (or effectively enough) to use another first at that position. Just my opinion.

[Estro]

I never say no to a QB.

Tyrod is an average, bridge type QB. And until we find a really good signal caller the fortunes of the Bills will not change.

 

So if they think there's a QB that can be that guy I would never complain. I didn't like E.J. as a prospect, but I never complained about the pick because I'll never complain about taking chances on QB's, it's so damn important. For what it's worth, I think DeShaun Watson has a chance to be the "guy", but it'd take the commitment of the entire organization to build an offense around his skill set, and interestingly I think that offense looks similar to the one you have to build for Tyrod to be at his best. That's why I don't think the door is closed on Watson at #10. He's a risk (question his accuracy, which is so important), but QB is the one position I'm okay with taking a risk on with 1st round picks.

 

With that said if they don't like any of the QB's, I think WR is by far the biggest need.

 

I love Corey Davis and would be thrilled with him at #10.

 

John Ross's medical (he's knicked up a lot) has me concerned & I wouldn't take him at #10 for that reason. Although his skill set is nice.

 

I know it's against the grain, but I'm not a fan of Mike Williams. He's too slow. His best trait is being big & those WR's have a higher rate of disappointing in the NFL.

[#34fan]

Howard in the first.... Try to deal for Evan Engram in the second... Safety/DB in the third... Deal the last two picks, and then see who's-who in UDFA... I'm bored with the never-ending tweaks on D... Let's score some points!

[Augie]

Blew out his Achilles yesterday...

Didn't know that was the confirmation. That just SUCKS. Get well, young man.

 

I'm feeling DB, probably Hooker or Adams. Lattimore as the top CB probably goes before us but a S may be left. Corey Davis wouldn't break my heart. Trading back works for me too.

[1billsfan]

Even though I want them to pick a QB at #10, I really do think that there was a compromise between the Whaley and McDermott in regards to the Taylor signing.

 

McDermott got a steady starting QB to remain at least respectable on offense, while Whaley gets to draft his future franchise QB of choice (if he's there) at #10.

 

 

 

[KellyToTasker]

They have so many glaring needs, they should have their choice at 10 (WR, DB, TE, etc). Unlike like last year's assumption, our 1st round draft pick needs to be healthy and an instant starter/contributor. They can't miss....Far to many holes.

[Patrick Duffy]

They have so many glaring needs, they should have their choice at 10 (WR, DB, TE, etc). Unlike like last year's assumption, our 1st round draft pick needs to be healthy and an instant starter/contributor. They can't miss....Far to many holes.

 

I agree. Want my 1st rd pick to be on the field week 1. Don't spend another 1st rd pick on a guy that will be out for 8 weeks.

Edited March 13, 2017 by Patrick_Duffy

[Boatdrinks]

Even though I want them to pick a QB at #10, I really do think that there was a compromise between the Whaley and McDermott in regards to the Taylor signing.

 

McDermott got a steady starting QB to remain at least respectable on offense, while Whaley gets to draft his future franchise QB of choice (if he's there) at #10.

 

I'm not so sure that Whaley and co believe any of these QBs are of the franchise variety. I think they will draft a QB in rounds 2-3 or maybe even move back into the end of the first round. A QB at 10 isn't likely IMO.

[frostbitmic]

QB - If you never take a chance on getting a QB, you'll never get one.

 

With the amount of money that even backup QB's get these days and numerous roster spots still needing to be filled, I have my doubts Whaley will sign a vet to compete with Cardale Jones for the #2 job and I don't think Jones is ready yet. Therefore I think they will have to draft one in the first round as I doubt any of the top 4 will be available to us in the 2nd round.

 

We can find a good WR or DB in the 2nd and third rounds but I don't think we'll find a good enough QB at that point.

 

Of course Whaley can ignore the QB position once again and just bring EJ back for vet minimum, you know he'll want to.

[purple haze]

CB's are always a premium. Even though the draft is deep with CB's there are still some who are better than others and Lattimore could be the guy at 10. If the Bills trade down Humphrey could be the guy. I don't think Mike Williams will be Whaley's guy at WR. I think Zay Jones from East Carolina will be and he might be around in the second when the Bills pick.

 

Of course, all of this is contingent on what they do during the rest of free agency. For instance, if they sign Morris Claiborne, etc., they probably would go WR first in the draft. I could also see them going with OJ Howard.

Edited March 13, 2017 by purple haze

[billspro]

Seems to be about right, odds wise.

 

Adams, Lattimore, Davis, and Watson are the favorites at this point.

[Success]

Do they still go bpa as a rule?

 

They always seem to surprise us. As long as it's not a running back, I'm cool.

[bobbobbob]

I voted poorly to reflect the anticipated poor draft by Whaley. I expect him to draft somebody who is either injured or a total reach, but yet somehow has the "It Factor" and lights up the room with his mere presence. Anybody remember Whaley's slobbering man-love video about E.J.? Sheesh. They both should be taking orders at the Burger King drive-through window.