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What separates a playoff team from a non-playoff team


LabattBlue

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Yes every team has highs and lows(see Pittsburgh this week vs last week), but I look at a couple things...

 

1 - Have to win your home games. Having 2 losses or less at home, IMO is a must. I hope losing the home opener against a mediocre team doesn't come back to haunt them.

 

2 - When the season is on the line, find a way to win. Remember losing to Pittsburgh's 3rd stringers a few years back?

 

3 - Have to have above average QB play all season long. Will TT give them that?

 

4 - Must win against teams that are likely not going to be playoff teams(see next 3 games). I don't care if the Rams are 3-1, I'd be shocked if they are in the playoffs with that QB and offense.

 

 

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Yes every team has highs and lows(see Pittsburgh this week vs last week), but I look at a couple things...

 

1 - Have to win your home games. Having 2 losses or less at home, IMO is a must. I hope losing the home opener against a mediocre team doesn't come back to haunt them.

 

 

I don't like the Jets, but they are a little better than "mediocre".

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Stats-wise, the single biggest determinant to football games is turnovers. Historically, teams that are -1 in games lose about 90% of the time. -2 raises that figure to 95% and -3 raises it to over 97%. If you go back and actually run correlations of teams with a significantly positive turnover margin, they're in the playoffs almost all of the time. All of the top-10 teams in turnovers last year were in the playoffs. The other 6 teams ranked 10th (3 teams tied), 14th, 15th, and 19th. There's always exceptions to the rule (Denver was 19th last year), but this mostly does hold true.

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Yes every team has highs and lows(see Pittsburgh this week vs last week), but I look at a couple things...

 

1 - Have to win your home games. Having 2 losses or less at home, IMO is a must. I hope losing the home opener against a mediocre team doesn't come back to haunt them.

 

 

I will continue to beat on this. Jets aren't mediocre and they played a perfectly executed game, Fitz played out of his mind and his WRs bailed him out, when needed.

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find a playoff team that had more than 9 wins and played a good schedule.....you beat the bad teams and lose to the good ones most years you are in the playoffs. See Andy Reid, Marvin Lewis, Mike McCarthy, newest guy is Bill O'Brien. There sysytem beats bad teams consistently but rarely beat a good team. 10 11 wins

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1 - Have to win your home games. Having 2 losses or less at home, IMO is a must. I hope losing the home opener against a mediocre team doesn't come back to haunt them.

 

2 - When the season is on the line, find a way to win. Remember losing to Pittsburgh's 3rd stringers a few years back?

 

3 - Have to have above average QB play all season long. Will TT give them that?

 

4 - Must win against teams that are likely not going to be playoff teams(see next 3 games). I don't care if the Rams are 3-1, I'd be shocked if they are in the playoffs with that QB and offense.

 

 

1) winning 6 (7 or 8) of your home games sure does help. suddenly 2-6 or 3-5 in the other 8 games is your bench mark to get in. If you win 75% or more at home, odds are you are a good enough team to beat some teams on the road (especially the bad ones, see point 4)

 

2) winning the win and you are in games does seem like an obvious demarcation between the teams that are in and out

 

3) above average qb sure does help

 

4) yup - losing to bad teams means you have to beat good teams to get in. that is more challenging.

Edited by NoSaint
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1) winning 6 (7 or 8) of your home games sure does help. suddenly 2-6 or 3-5 in the other 8 games is your bench mark to get in. If you win 75% or more at home, odds are you are a good enough team to beat some teams on the road (especially the bad ones, see point 4)

 

2) winning the win and you are in games does seem like an obvious demarcation between the teams that are in and out

 

3) above average qb sure does help

 

4) yup - losing to bad teams means you have to beat good teams to get in. that is more challenging.

To your first point, winning 5 of your 6 division games puts you in a decent spot usually as well.

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To your first point, winning 5 of your 6 division games puts you in a decent spot usually as well.

yes. starting with a 2 game lead (and tie breakers) in the division with 10 games to play is normally a good start to success. especially in a race with teams you beat and may be better than.

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My default answer is QB play... But Philip Rivers is on pace for 4,404 yards, 32TD, 4INT and the Chargers are on pace to go 4-12 (again), so there's that...

Yes, but SD did just lose to an NFC team, so their chances of making the playoffs went up significantly!

Edited by ricojes
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As good as yesterday's win was, and it was good. To go anywhere in December I think at least one and probably two of those field goals would need to be a touchdown. I don't think there will be too many 3rd string qb's in the playoffs and good teams will score points on a good defense.

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A few plays in every game really. Alot of games are within a touchdown, and the team who wins, generally makes 3-5 more kep plays than the other team. That can be the difference between 8 and 8 and 10 and 6, if you just make those key clutch plays

 

Exactly. Unless you are one of the few teams that is NE-level good or Cleveland-level bad, you are in the middle where a small handful of plays can make the difference between 7-9 and 10-6.

 

2014 is the best recent example; the Bills had squeaker wins against all those NFC Central teams and game changing plays that cost them against KC and Houston. That season could easily have been a game or two better or worse.

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Exactly. Unless you are one of the few teams that is NE-level good or Cleveland-level bad, you are in the middle where a small handful of plays can make the difference between 7-9 and 10-6.

 

2014 is the best recent example; the Bills had squeaker wins against all those NFC Central teams and game changing plays that cost them against KC and Houston. That season could easily have been a game or two better or worse.

Yes sir. A team that always makes the playoffs cause they seem to make those key plays more than often are the chiefs. It's not because the Chiefs are way better than the bills. It is because they seem to win those close games where the game can go either way

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Good coaching; limited penalties; a dash of good fortune.

 

This, but as a basis, team has to be at least average in all 3 phases of the game (O, D, ST) and top-10 on either O or D

 

 

Almost....

 

Broncos, Texans, Vikings, Redskins.....

 

Thinking you could add Chiefs to that (Smith played well for them but they went to the playoffs with Meh Cassel)

Edited by Hapless Bills Fan
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