The Bills are on the clock: Pick 33

[mannc]

1 minute ago, OldTimer1960 said:

I think you’re right and I will be very disappointed if that’s where they go.

About Franklin or Aiyuk, or both?

[mjt328]

Not sure why people are wanting ANOTHER slot receiver in Ladd McConkey?

 

The best receiver on our team is Khalil Shakir, who was a slot receiver last year.

We added Curtis Samuel, who has mostly played slot receiver over the last few years.

Our next best receiving options are Tight Ends.

 

It's not always about getting the most talented guy.  You need to have some variety on the team, so you can attack all parts of the field.  The Bills have pretty much nobody on the team who can challenge defenses on the outside or down the field.

 

[Back2Buff]

It's 100% Cooper.  You don't get rid of the 5th year option unless it will end up being useless because Safeties are paid less than what the 5th year option would be.

[BarleyNY]

Just now, Back2Buff said:

It's 100% Cooper.  You don't get rid of the 5th year option unless it will end up being useless because Safeties are paid less than what the 5th year option would be.

5th year options are calculated for each position using salaries at that position. 

[skibum]

What I love most about this trade-down is that Beane now holds the highest remaining pick, and he has a whole, long day to field offers for it. There are still a lot of great players left, and a lot of teams will be looking to trade with the Bills to make sure they get their guy. I think there is a ton of value in that alone, and combined with the added mid-round picks, I think Beane did well on value considering the depth of players available outside the top 15.

 

The big story to watch down the road will be if Xavier Worthy becomes the next great Chief that the Bills basically handed them. 

[<bills4life>]

7 hours ago, HomeskillitMoorman said:

The McDonkey dude isn't a difference-maker though. If he's the pick, we still need serious help at WR. 

Add in shakir Samuel’s Kincaid, cook and Knox does he really need to be though.  Add in Troy Franklin later in the draft and I am 100 percent thrilled with our receiving room as a whole.  

[<bills4life>]

14 minutes ago, mjt328 said:

Not sure why people are wanting ANOTHER slot receiver in Ladd McConkey?

But that’s just it. 70 percent of ladds work was not from the slot. 

[Kirby Jackson]

13 minutes ago, Back2Buff said:

It's 100% Cooper.  You don't get rid of the 5th year option unless it will end up being useless because Safeties are paid less than what the 5th year option would be.

That’s an interesting take. 🍻

[gflande1]

I feel like the Bills are playing 3D chess…while the other teams are banging hot chicks. 
 

Wait till they see how good we are at chess

[OldTimer1960]

19 minutes ago, mannc said:

About Franklin or Aiyuk, or both?

Franklin doesn’t interest me early in round 2.  I’m not super keen on trading for an expensive vet like Aiyuk, but at least he isn’t super old - don’t know how they fit him under the cap this year though.

[Back2Buff]

13 minutes ago, BarleyNY said:

5th year options are calculated for each position using salaries at that position. 

 

There is less variance between safety positions, meaning they don't have the mega highs to bring up the avg.  So essentially, the 5th year option is probably going to be more than what you would give a safety, unless the Safety will be the top 2 paid in the entire NFL.  

 

So what I mean, right now a safety with 2 pro bowls from the 2021 draft that meets the playing time would be getting 17.12 million.  A WR on the other hand would be getting 21.82 million.  A WR with 2 pro bowls will get more like 31-32 million a year.  So you would save close to 10 million on the 5th year option.  Derwin James is the top paid safety at 19 million.  The 5th year option is saving you less than 2 million.

 

2025 5th Years

 

Highest Paid Safeties

[Kaenon]

Anyone but Ladd please.

[gflande1]

This is going to be a long day. Can’t wait to see how it unfolds, so many more moves to make.

 

I’m pissing out my ass in anticipation….well that and undercooked chicken wings. 

[H2o]

It's amazing how the draft is "over" for us now and we've basically lost the offseason after the 1st Round. 

[OldTimer1960]

5 minutes ago, Kaenon said:

Anyone but Ladd please.

McConkey is the best receiver left, in my opinion.  I think if they were going to take Mitchell, they would have done so already.

 

I understand that McConkey isn’t an X, but if it isn’t him it’s another position in my opinion.

[BarleyNY]

17 minutes ago, Back2Buff said:

 

There is less variance between safety positions, meaning they don't have the mega highs to bring up the avg.  So essentially, the 5th year option is probably going to be more than what you would give a safety, unless the Safety will be the top 2 paid in the entire NFL.  

 

So what I mean, right now a safety with 2 pro bowls from the 2021 draft that meets the playing time would be getting 17.12 million.  A WR on the other hand would be getting 21.82 million.  A WR with 2 pro bowls will get more like 31-32 million a year.  So you would save close to 10 million on the 5th year option.  Derwin James is the top paid safety at 19 million.  The 5th year option is saving you less than 2 million.

 

2025 5th Years

 

Highest Paid Safeties

 

That’s logical. Obviously things can change substantially over the next four years, but I see your point.

 

The more global concern is, of course, that using a high pick for a safety rather than a WR is a poor use of resources. Your numbers illustrate the relatively massive amount of money saved on a quality WR vs safety playing on rookie deals. 

[gonzo1105]

I think the Bills are going to move down again. Listening to Beane in his presser he made mention of getting starters or key contributors and 95 gives them more of a chance to achieve that. 
 

I think he’s finding a way to get more guys in the top 100 considering this draft supposedly falls off a cliff after 120-130 players. 
 

I don’t think they go crazy but I can see them moving into the late 30s giving up one of their 5ths and asking for a 3rd back 

[Dr. Who]

1 hour ago, mjt328 said:

Not sure why people are wanting ANOTHER slot receiver in Ladd McConkey?

 

The best receiver on our team is Khalil Shakir, who was a slot receiver last year.

We added Curtis Samuel, who has mostly played slot receiver over the last few years.

Our next best receiving options are Tight Ends.

 

It's not always about getting the most talented guy.  You need to have some variety on the team, so you can attack all parts of the field.  The Bills have pretty much nobody on the team who can challenge defenses on the outside or down the field.

 

Very tired of this take. McConkey is not a slot receiver. He took 80% of his snaps on the outside. He's a flanker, movement Z whatever term you like.

They need to get 2 WRs. One of them should be an X, but there absolutely is room for McConkey, who is an out of the box volume receiver year one.

Edited April 26 by Dr. Who

[SoCal Deek]

19 minutes ago, OldTimer1960 said:

McConkey is the best receiver left, in my opinion.  I think if they were going to take Mitchell, they would have done so already.

 

I understand that McConkey isn’t an X, but if it isn’t him it’s another position in my opinion.

Why would they have done so already? He’s still there now. The goal of the draft isn’t to take your guy as early as possible. The goal is to take him as LATE as possible. 

[nedboy7]

I don’t know. Am I willing to get a WR “without VALUE “ when I can stockpile 3rd rounders?   I mean checkers me chess.  

[Art in PNS]

8 hours ago, LabattBlue said:

Very puzzling to give up the 5th year of player control for what?

The fifth year option on a WR isn't much of a price control anymore . That 5th year will probably be 30 Million by then

[518Buffalo]

I find myself largely agreeing with Joe Marino here, Legette at 32 would have been nice but if you told me before the draft we could move down 5 spots and get back in the 3rd round (and upgrade a day 3 pick) I would have taken it. If we wake up tomorrow with DeJean, Franklin and somebody else I'll be thrilled. I can get excited for Mitchell but I don't understand the McConkey love - maybe someone who watches more college football than I do can explain the appeal behind a guy with his mediocre production and good but not elite tools

[CNYfan]

I am loving DeJean at this point.  A great fit in a number of ways.  We are short in CB depth, run 3 safety groupings with Rapp quite often, one injury away from disaster and Douglas leaving next year?

 

If we stay put DeJean and Wilson would be cool boss, but probably moving around.  

 

[Turbo44]

If we stick at 33, guessing it's DeJean.  I have him ranked #19 in the draft and he screams McDermott.  2 things I could see happening:

 

#33 DeJean

#45 (trade up from 60 using 2 of our 5ths) Franklin (I think he may last to 60 and the Bills spent more pre-draft time with him than anybody else)

#95 Baker or Burton (off field isses with Burton but the talent is very high)

 

#33 DeJean

#60 Baker

#95 Burton/McCallister/Rice

 

[buffaloaggie]

1 minute ago, SoCal Deek said:

Why would they have done so already? He’s still there now. The goal of the draft isn’t to take your guy as early as possible. The goal is to take him as LATE as possible. 

It's a gamble because the Bills also have their eye on a player around #95. That seems to be where a big drop-off in talent occurs. I hope McConkey is the choice at 33. Watching video of him, his acceleration is amazing, and he can lineup outside, in the slot, pretty much anywhere. Only question about an undersized WR is the durability. Otherwise, I'd love if they'd get him.

[Back2Buff]

2 minutes ago, Turbo44 said:

If we stick at 33, guessing it's DeJean.  I have him ranked #19 in the draft and he screams McDermott.  2 things I could see happening:

 

#33 DeJean

#45 (trade up from 60 using 2 of our 5ths) Franklin (I think he may last to 60 and the Bills spent more pre-draft time with him than anybody else)

#95 Baker or Burton (off field isses with Burton but the talent is very high)

 

#33 DeJean

#60 Baker

#95 Burton/McCallister/Rice

 

 

I think you are spot on.  I think they take Cooper and trade up from 60 to take Franklin.  I think they have wanted Franklin for months now.  I also think they will take another WR in 3rd, probably moving up again.

[bills6969]

This is my dream scenario:

 

33 Dejean

60 Franklin/Coleman

95 Tez Walker

 

i don’t think Franklin will last until 60 so may need to trade up to get him

[Watkins101]

8 hours ago, LEBills said:

 

Round 5 gonna be lit!

Doubt it. Beane likes to trade up in the 2nd-4th. I’d guess we end up with 2 5ths.

[stinky finger]

7 hours ago, JoshAllin said:

I want a saftey then wr

PM me.

We need to discuss your priorities. 😁

[OldTimer1960]

23 minutes ago, SoCal Deek said:

Why would they have done so already? He’s still there now. The goal of the draft isn’t to take your guy as early as possible. The goal is to take him as LATE as possible. 

I just think that his talent would have dictated he go round 1 if he didn’t have rumored concerns about effort/taking coaching.

[TFBillsfan]

I would have to imagine Beane will be aggressive on Day 2 and package some of the 4th and 5th round picks to move up.

 

Need to add starters at WR and S from the day two picks. Would love Braelon Edwards, RB, Wisconsin as a late 3rd round/early 4th pick.

 

Later rounds most likely addressing 

depth at DT, DE, IOL and CB

Potential rookie punter (Tory Taylor)?

[Turbo44]

3 minutes ago, bills6969 said:

This is my dream scenario:

 

33 Dejean

60 Franklin/Coleman

95 Tez Walker

 

i don’t think Franklin will last until 60 so may need to trade up to get him

walker is undraftable according to analytics - one of the overrated receivers in recent years.  I like him too until doing research on him. Substitute Baker, McCafrey, Polk or Burton for Walker

 

A couple of sites I've looked at have McConkey as their #1 player available.

#33 McConkey, and

#45 Franklin or #60 Baker 

I would cry tears of joy. I'd bet Ladd gets close to 100 catches a year

[Back2Buff]

20 minutes ago, Art in PNS said:

The fifth year option on a WR isn't much of a price control anymore . That 5th year will probably be 30 Million by then

 

Not sure what you are talking about.  Cinn will save well over 10 million with Chase.

[LabattBlue]

Anyone know recent draft history when 33 was traded and what the return was?

[bills6969]

6 minutes ago, Turbo44 said:

walker is undraftable according to analytics - one of the overrated receivers in recent years.  I like him too until doing research on him. Substitute Baker, McCafrey, Polk or Burton for Walker

 

A couple of sites I've looked at have McConkey as their #1 player available.

#33 McConkey, and

#45 Franklin or #60 Baker 

I would cry tears of joy. I'd bet Ladd gets close to 100 catches a year

What stats? He had 700 yds 7 TDs only playing half the season at UNC

[SoCal Deek]

9 minutes ago, OldTimer1960 said:

I just think that his talent would have dictated he go round 1 if he didn’t have rumored concerns about effort/taking coaching.

As I’ve often said, people get WAY too hung up on which Round a player is taken in. 

[Ralonzo]

2 hours ago, NeverOutNick said:

AD Mitchell all day unless they don’t trust his work ethic. His film when playing hard is top 10 WR. If he’s off their board then Franklin 

 

If you assume that Franklin or maybe Coleman is the guy Beane covets, and I can believe that, then here's how I'd bounce around Brugler's Day-2 Mock (Athletic, paywall) picking guys he mocks within a few spots after the Bills pick, for positions of need.

 

Brugler:

#33 Adonai Mitchell

#60 Javon Bullard

#95 Malik Washington

 

Alternate: Alternately, in his mock Coleman goes #45 so a flip of #33 to Washington for #40 + #100 would get the Bills into position for that.

 

VERSION 1 - ***TRADE***  #33 + #144 to NYG for #47 + #70, giving Buffalo the desired target of 4 Day-2 picks.  

 

 >>> #47 Troy Franklin, WR, Oregon - Slight receiver with good enough speed and great underlying win-rate metrics.

Other Options: Kris Jenkins, DT, Michigan ; Jackson Powers-Johnson, G/C, Oregon ; Kingsley Suamataia, OT, BYU ; Maason Smith, DT, LSU ; Zach Frazier, G/C, West Virginia

 >>> #60 Javon Bullard, S, Georgia

Other Options:  ; Braden Fiske, DT, Florida State ; Kamari Lassiter, CB, Georgia

Or, a small trade-up (e.g. #60 + #163 to GB for #58 + #202) for Jaden Hicks, S, Washington State - The size and hammer of a SS and the range and playmaking of a FS.

 >>> #70 Austin Booker, Edge, Kansas - Athletic edge is still young and would greatly benefit developing in a rotational role.

Other Options: Ruke Orhorhoro, DT, Clemson ; Brandon Dorlus, DT, Oregon ; Cole Bishop, S, Utah ; Ja’Lynn Polk, WR, Washington

 >>> #95 Javon Baker, WR, UCF - If drafting 2 outside WR on days 1 & 2 is the plan, Baker brings what Franklin doesn't in physicality and beating press.

Other Options: Devontez Walker, WR, North Carolina ; Malik Washington, WR, Virginia ; Malik Mustapha, S, Wake Forest ; Dadrion Taylor-Demerson, S, Texas Tech ; Kamren Kinchens, S, Miami ; 

 

[Turbo44]

2 minutes ago, Ralonzo said:

 

If you assume that Franklin or maybe Coleman is the guy Beane covets, and I can believe that, then here's how I'd bounce around Brugler's Day-2 Mock (Athletic, paywall) picking guys he mocks within a few spots after the Bills pick, for positions of need.

 

Brugler:

#33 Adonai Mitchell

#60 Javon Bullard

#95 Malik Washington

 

Alternate: Alternately, in his mock Coleman goes #45 so a flip of #33 to Washington for #40 + #100 would get the Bills into position for that.

 

VERSION 1 - ***TRADE***  #33 + #144 to NYG for #47 + #70, giving Buffalo the desired target of 4 Day-2 picks.  

 

 >>> #47 Troy Franklin, WR, Oregon - Slight receiver with good enough speed and great underlying win-rate metrics.

Other Options: Kris Jenkins, DT, Michigan ; Jackson Powers-Johnson, G/C, Oregon ; Kingsley Suamataia, OT, BYU ; Maason Smith, DT, LSU ; Zach Frazier, G/C, West Virginia

 >>> #60 Javon Bullard, S, Georgia

Other Options:  ; Braden Fiske, DT, Florida State ; Kamari Lassiter, CB, Georgia

Or, a small trade-up (e.g. #60 + #163 to GB for #58 + #202) for Jaden Hicks, S, Washington State - The size and hammer of a SS and the range and playmaking of a FS.

 >>> #70 Austin Booker, Edge, Kansas - Athletic edge is still young and would greatly benefit developing in a rotational role.

Other Options: Ruke Orhorhoro, DT, Clemson ; Brandon Dorlus, DT, Oregon ; Cole Bishop, S, Utah ; Ja’Lynn Polk, WR, Washington

 >>> #95 Javon Baker, WR, UCF - If drafting 2 outside WR on days 1 & 2 is the plan, Baker brings what Franklin doesn't in physicality and beating press.

Other Options: Devontez Walker, WR, North Carolina ; Malik Washington, WR, Virginia ; Malik Mustapha, S, Wake Forest ; Dadrion Taylor-Demerson, S, Texas Tech ; Kamren Kinchens, S, Miami ; 

 

I'd be worried That Franklin doesnt last to 47 and Baker doesn't last to 95

[NewEra]

38 minutes ago, 518Buffalo said:

I find myself largely agreeing with Joe Marino here, Legette at 32 would have been nice but if you told me before the draft we could move down 5 spots and get back in the 3rd round (and upgrade a day 3 pick) I would have taken it. If we wake up tomorrow with DeJean, Franklin and somebody else I'll be thrilled. I can get excited for Mitchell but I don't understand the McConkey love - maybe someone who watches more college football than I do can explain the appeal behind a guy with his mediocre production and good but not elite tools

Borderline elite footwork and top notch feints is why I like him

[LabattBlue]

All the WR’s on the board have some warts to their game.  To me the question becomes, which one(s) can step in and become a quality starter week 1?