Rubes Posted April 17 Share Posted April 17 Since we're almost upon the draft, I thought I'd bring up this annual topic: First rounders are believed, by most, to have the best chance of success in the NFL, on average. But as we all know, the draft is largely a crapshoot, and first rounders fail to live up to expectations all the time (looking at you, Elam). Sometimes we chalk it up to poor player evaluation, or poor player adjustment to the NFL, among other things. In some cases, we also think the specific situation they're drafted into is the cause, whether it's poor coaching, poor team culture, lack of supporting cast, and so on. If that latter point is the case it stands to reason those players could be successful in a different situation, on a different team. I'm wondering how often we see that this is the case with 1st rounders. That is, how many first rounders fail on the teams that drafted them, only to be released or traded to another team to become as successful as originally projected when they were drafted? Is the specific drafting team situation really a thing that has been proven by those who have changed teams? Or is it mostly a convenient excuse? What are some strong examples of first rounders who failed to live up to expectations on their drafting team, and then left to go to another team and achieved the success that eluded them? Does Jerry Hughes fit this? Are there others? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
akcash Posted April 17 Share Posted April 17 Ahhhhhh I was going to say Jerry Hughes!! Well played! 5 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MiracleAtRich1393 Posted April 17 Share Posted April 17 Leonard Floyd? 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rubes Posted April 17 Author Share Posted April 17 Just now, MiracleAtRich1393 said: Leonard Floyd? Was he really a failed first rounder? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Billy Claude Posted April 17 Share Posted April 17 (edited) Steve Young obviously. Not a new team but a new coach, Alex Smith was a bust until Jim Harbaugh. Geno Smith? Edited April 17 by Billy Claude 5 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oldmanfan Posted April 17 Share Posted April 17 6 minutes ago, Rubes said: Since we're almost upon the draft, I thought I'd bring up this annual topic: First rounders are believed, by most, to have the best chance of success in the NFL, on average. But as we all know, the draft is largely a crapshoot, and first rounders fail to live up to expectations all the time (looking at you, Elam). Sometimes we chalk it up to poor player evaluation, or poor player adjustment to the NFL, among other things. In some cases, we also think the specific situation they're drafted into is the cause, whether it's poor coaching, poor team culture, lack of supporting cast, and so on. If that latter point is the case it stands to reason those players could be successful in a different situation, on a different team. I'm wondering how often we see that this is the case with 1st rounders. That is, how many first rounders fail on the teams that drafted them, only to be released or traded to another team to become as successful as originally projected when they were drafted? Is the specific drafting team situation really a thing that has been proven by those who have changed teams? Or is it mostly a convenient excuse? What are some strong examples of first rounders who failed to live up to expectations on their drafting team, and then left to go to another team and achieved the success that eluded them? Does Jerry Hughes fit this? Are there others? Jim Plunkett. 12 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rubes Posted April 17 Author Share Posted April 17 Just now, oldmanfan said: Jim Plunkett. Definitely a good one. But also, that's going back like what, 40 years ago? Any others? 1 minute ago, Billy Claude said: Steve Young obviously. Not a new team but a new coach, Alex Smith was a bust until Jim Harbaugh. That's a good one, I think. That fits the argument since the Bucs were a hot mess back then. Still seems like a rarity, though. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
akcash Posted April 17 Share Posted April 17 Ryan Tannehill (I cheated) 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Billy Claude Posted April 17 Share Posted April 17 Ryan Tannehill. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
billsfanmiamioh Posted April 17 Share Posted April 17 Ricky Williams? 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NoSaint Posted April 17 Share Posted April 17 5 minutes ago, Augie said: I am from the future. A man named Elam. They have alcohol in the future. EDIT: And present. 🤷♂️ . augie used to drink a lot he still does, but he used to too (and will in the future) 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rubes Posted April 17 Author Share Posted April 17 1 minute ago, akcash said: Ryan Tannehill (I cheated) Cheated how? Not a bad choice, though I don't know if I'd say he achieved the success expected of an 8th overall pick. 1 minute ago, billsfanmiamioh said: Ricky Williams? Ew. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Virgil Posted April 17 Share Posted April 17 Drew Brees? 3 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
akcash Posted April 17 Share Posted April 17 Just now, Rubes said: Cheated how? Not a bad choice, though I don't know if I'd say he achieved the success expected of an 8th overall pick. Ew. That’s true. Went to pro football reference and scanned ever first round pick for every draft back to 2006 before I found tannehill in whatever year he was drafted 😂 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DapperCam Posted April 17 Share Posted April 17 I think Maybin became an artist. Oh, you meant football career? 4 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrDawkinstein Posted April 17 Share Posted April 17 Just now, Virgil said: Drew Brees? 2nd rounder. So was Geno Smith. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Beck Water Posted April 17 Share Posted April 17 8 minutes ago, Rubes said: Since we're almost upon the draft, I thought I'd bring up this annual topic: First rounders are believed, by most, to have the best chance of success in the NFL, on average. But as we all know, the draft is largely a crapshoot, and first rounders fail to live up to expectations all the time (looking at you, Elam). Sometimes we chalk it up to poor player evaluation, or poor player adjustment to the NFL, among other things. In some cases, we also think the specific situation they're drafted into is the cause, whether it's poor coaching, poor team culture, lack of supporting cast, and so on. If that latter point is the case it stands to reason those players could be successful in a different situation, on a different team. I'm wondering how often we see that this is the case with 1st rounders. That is, how many first rounders fail on the teams that drafted them, only to be released or traded to another team to become as successful as originally projected when they were drafted? Is the specific drafting team situation really a thing that has been proven by those who have changed teams? Or is it mostly a convenient excuse? What are some strong examples of first rounders who failed to live up to expectations on their drafting team, and then left to go to another team and achieved the success that eluded them? Does Jerry Hughes fit this? Are there others? Do they have to have moved to another team before they succeeded? The classic recent case is Alex Smith, #1 overall pick of the 2005 draft. At one point, he was on a list of "top 5 draft busts of all time". He's splitting starts with the like of Shaun Hill and Troy Smith. Then Harbaugh takes over as HC, the team goes 13-3, and Smith is playing in the conference championship. But wait, there's a twist - he gets benched for Colin Kaepernick, rides out the SB loss on the pine, gets traded to KC and his quality QB play resumes. 2 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
akcash Posted April 17 Share Posted April 17 2 minutes ago, Beck Water said: Do they have to have moved to another team before they succeeded? The classic recent case is Alex Smith, #1 overall pick of the 2005 draft. At one point, he was on a list of "top 5 draft busts of all time". He's splitting starts with the like of Shaun Hill and Troy Smith. Then Harbaugh takes over as HC, the team goes 13-3, and Smith is playing in the conference championship. But wait, there's a twist - he gets benched for Colin Kaepernick, rides out the SB loss on the pine, gets traded to KC and his quality QB play resumes. That’s a good one. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Billy Claude Posted April 17 Share Posted April 17 Would Jared Goff count? 2 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rubes Posted April 17 Author Share Posted April 17 3 minutes ago, Beck Water said: Do they have to have moved to another team before they succeeded? The classic recent case is Alex Smith, #1 overall pick of the 2005 draft. At one point, he was on a list of "top 5 draft busts of all time". He's splitting starts with the like of Shaun Hill and Troy Smith. Then Harbaugh takes over as HC, the team goes 13-3, and Smith is playing in the conference championship. But wait, there's a twist - he gets benched for Colin Kaepernick, rides out the SB loss on the pine, gets traded to KC and his quality QB play resumes. Yeah, @Billy Claude mentioned Alex Smith earlier, but I didn't remember his story until you mentioned it. That's a really good one. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Beck Water Posted April 17 Share Posted April 17 4 minutes ago, Virgil said: Drew Brees? Good call - he's kind of an Alex Smith type case though. His first year was a mess, changed coaches to Marty Schottenheimer and Cam Cameron as OC. Still embrangled in this weird dynamic with Doug Flutie the next two years, to the point where the Chargers thought he couldn't play and used the #1 pick on a QB. Then, HEY PRESTO, in his 4th year Brees wins Comeback Player of the Year, gets votes for OPOY, goes to the Probowl, team goes 11-4 and next year 9-7 while #1 overall pick sits on the bench and Whatcha Gonna Do Chargers? So they let him go in FA to NO and the rest is history. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaptnCoke11 Posted April 17 Share Posted April 17 23 minutes ago, Virgil said: Drew Brees? Second round Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Captain Hindsight Posted April 17 Share Posted April 17 Baker Mayfield 3 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
boyst Posted April 17 Share Posted April 17 28 minutes ago, DrDawkinstein said: 2nd rounder. So was Geno Smith. There are just some things we shouldn't mention on here. Geno Smith. Daron Lee. 43 is the Mike. Nathan Peterman. -------- And I can easily win this thread with two players Eli Manning Phillip Rivers Both never even got to play a game for the team that drafted them and went on to HOF careers after being traded. 5 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JohnBonhamRocks Posted April 17 Share Posted April 17 Eli did nothing with the Chargers before the Giants 8 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GoBills! Posted April 17 Share Posted April 17 Quote Sammy Watson 👀 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullBuchanan Posted April 17 Share Posted April 17 Amari Cooper stared hot and then had 2 terrible seasons before becoming a star with Dallas. Garrison Hearst took 3 years to get going Thomas Jones didn't flash until the very last few games of his 4th season and then became a star with the bears in year 5th. Vinny Testaverde is maybe the NFL's greatest longevity success story in spite of results. Does that count? 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rubes Posted April 17 Author Share Posted April 17 2 minutes ago, boyst said: There are just some things we shouldn't mention on here. Geno Smith. Daron Lee. 43 is the Mike. Nathan Peterman. -------- And I can easily win this thread with two players Eli Manning Phillip Rivers Both never even got to play a game for the team that drafted them and went on to HOF careers after being traded. Yeah, I don't think either really counts. Nice try though. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
947 Posted April 17 Share Posted April 17 Robert Gallery. Considered a generational OT prospect, rated a perfect 9.0 pre-draft. Was horrendous at LT & really bad as a RT. Still terrible 2 years later, was labeled as a monumental bust. Moved to OG & was solid, played another 6 years. I remember all the pre-draft concern about his 32.25" arm length, well under the 34" usually wanted in a LT. They were right... 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Joe Mama Posted April 17 Share Posted April 17 Len Dawson Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rubes Posted April 17 Author Share Posted April 17 Just now, 947 said: Robert Gallery. Considered a generational OT prospect, rated a perfect 9.0 pre-draft. Was horrendous at LT & really bad as a RT. Still terrible 2 years later, was labeled as a monumental bust. Moved to OG & was solid, played another 6 years. I remember all the pre-draft concern about his 32.25" arm length, well under the 34" usually wanted in a LT. They were right... Not a bad choice, but I don't think a solid career as a G makes up for being a huge disappointment as a first round pick at T. Just now, Joe Mama said: Len Dawson Dude. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dave_Bills Posted April 17 Share Posted April 17 3 minutes ago, 947 said: Robert Gallery. Considered a generational OT prospect, rated a perfect 9.0 pre-draft. Was horrendous at LT & really bad as a RT. Still terrible 2 years later, was labeled as a monumental bust. Moved to OG & was solid, played another 6 years. I remember all the pre-draft concern about his 32.25" arm length, well under the 34" usually wanted in a LT. They were right... I’d still classify gallery as a disappointment. He redeemed himself from being horrendous to serviceable. Low bar for a #2 pick Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJS Posted April 17 Share Posted April 17 (edited) Josh Allen. I'm only kidding a little bit. The media was dunking on him after his first couple of years. Many predicted he would be a bust and they focused on his relatively poor stats to point to. Then he had his breakout year in 2020. For those paying attention, Josh Allen had amazing flashes all through his first couple of years, even though his stats weren't always reflective of his clear talent. This prediction from Mel Kiper is always fun. He gets laughed out of the room for predicting Josh Allen would be the best QB in the AFC East in 5 years (after his rookie season): Edited April 17 by MJS 1 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BarleyNY Posted April 17 Share Posted April 17 27 minutes ago, boyst said: There are just some things we shouldn't mention on here. Geno Smith. Daron Lee. 43 is the Mike. Nathan Peterman. -------- And I can easily win this thread with two players Eli Manning Phillip Rivers Both never even got to play a game for the team that drafted them and went on to HOF careers after being traded. Then you can add John Elway. In that vein I would include Steve Young, Jim Kelly, Herschel Walker and every other player who found success in the NFL after a career in the USFL. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Big Blitz Posted April 17 Share Posted April 17 Eric Moulds 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doc Brown Posted April 17 Share Posted April 17 There's some guys off the top of my head that were once labeled busts but were solid NFL players who never quite lived up to their draft hype. Cordarrelle Patterson, Alex Smith, Solomon Thomas, Reggie Bush, Shaq Lawson Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ajmac Posted April 17 Share Posted April 17 Baker Mayfield ✅ 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NickelCity Posted April 17 Share Posted April 17 Jerry Hughes 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MRW Posted April 17 Share Posted April 17 Ted Washington? Not sure if he was labeled a bust or not but my memory is that he wasn't all that highly thought of until he came to the Bills. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
without a drought Posted April 17 Share Posted April 17 Jerry Hughes Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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