Best examples of failed 1st rounders who revived their careers?

[Rubes]

Since we're almost upon the draft, I thought I'd bring up this annual topic:

 

First rounders are believed, by most, to have the best chance of success in the NFL, on average. But as we all know, the draft is largely a crapshoot, and first rounders fail to live up to expectations all the time (looking at you, Elam). Sometimes we chalk it up to poor player evaluation, or poor player adjustment to the NFL, among other things. In some cases, we also think the specific situation they're drafted into is the cause, whether it's poor coaching, poor team culture, lack of supporting cast, and so on.

 

If that latter point is the case it stands to reason those players could be successful in a different situation, on a different team.

 

I'm wondering how often we see that this is the case with 1st rounders. That is, how many first rounders fail on the teams that drafted them, only to be released or traded to another team to become as successful as originally projected when they were drafted? Is the specific drafting team situation really a thing that has been proven by those who have changed teams? Or is it mostly a convenient excuse?

 

What are some strong examples of first rounders who failed to live up to expectations on their drafting team, and then left to go to another team and achieved the success that eluded them? Does Jerry Hughes fit this? Are there others?

 

[akcash]

Ahhhhhh I was going to say Jerry Hughes!! Well played!

[MiracleAtRich1393]

Leonard Floyd?

[Rubes]

Just now, MiracleAtRich1393 said:

Leonard Floyd?

 

Was he really a failed first rounder?

 

[Billy Claude]

Steve Young obviously.

 

Not a new team but a new coach, Alex Smith was a bust until Jim Harbaugh.

 

Geno Smith?

 

Edited April 17 by Billy Claude

[oldmanfan]

6 minutes ago, Rubes said:

Since we're almost upon the draft, I thought I'd bring up this annual topic:

 

First rounders are believed, by most, to have the best chance of success in the NFL, on average. But as we all know, the draft is largely a crapshoot, and first rounders fail to live up to expectations all the time (looking at you, Elam). Sometimes we chalk it up to poor player evaluation, or poor player adjustment to the NFL, among other things. In some cases, we also think the specific situation they're drafted into is the cause, whether it's poor coaching, poor team culture, lack of supporting cast, and so on.

 

If that latter point is the case it stands to reason those players could be successful in a different situation, on a different team.

 

I'm wondering how often we see that this is the case with 1st rounders. That is, how many first rounders fail on the teams that drafted them, only to be released or traded to another team to become as successful as originally projected when they were drafted? Is the specific drafting team situation really a thing that has been proven by those who have changed teams? Or is it mostly a convenient excuse?

 

What are some strong examples of first rounders who failed to live up to expectations on their drafting team, and then left to go to another team and achieved the success that eluded them? Does Jerry Hughes fit this? Are there others?

 

Jim Plunkett.

[Rubes]

Just now, oldmanfan said:

Jim Plunkett.

 

Definitely a good one. But also, that's going back like what, 40 years ago?

 

Any others?

 

1 minute ago, Billy Claude said:

Steve Young obviously.

 

Not a new team but a new coach, Alex Smith was a bust until Jim Harbaugh.

 

 

That's a good one, I think. That fits the argument since the Bucs were a hot mess back then.

 

Still seems like a rarity, though.

 

[akcash]

Ryan Tannehill (I cheated)

[Billy Claude]

Ryan Tannehill.

 

[billsfanmiamioh]

Ricky Williams?

[NoSaint]

5 minutes ago, Augie said:

I am from the future. 

 

A man named Elam. 

 

They have alcohol in the future. 

 

EDIT: And present.   🤷‍♂️

 

 

.

 

augie used to drink a lot

 

he still does, but he used to too

 

(and will in the future)

[Rubes]

1 minute ago, akcash said:

Ryan Tannehill (I cheated)

 

Cheated how? Not a bad choice, though I don't know if I'd say he achieved the success expected of an 8th overall pick.

 

1 minute ago, billsfanmiamioh said:

Ricky Williams?

 

Ew.

 

[Virgil]

Drew Brees?

[akcash]

Just now, Rubes said:

 

Cheated how? Not a bad choice, though I don't know if I'd say he achieved the success expected of an 8th overall pick.

 

 

Ew.

 

That’s true. Went to pro football reference and scanned ever first round pick for every draft back to 2006 before I found tannehill in whatever year he was drafted 😂

[DapperCam]

I think Maybin became an artist. Oh, you meant football career?

[DrDawkinstein]

Just now, Virgil said:

Drew Brees?

 

2nd rounder. So was Geno Smith.

[Beck Water]

8 minutes ago, Rubes said:

Since we're almost upon the draft, I thought I'd bring up this annual topic:

 

First rounders are believed, by most, to have the best chance of success in the NFL, on average. But as we all know, the draft is largely a crapshoot, and first rounders fail to live up to expectations all the time (looking at you, Elam). Sometimes we chalk it up to poor player evaluation, or poor player adjustment to the NFL, among other things. In some cases, we also think the specific situation they're drafted into is the cause, whether it's poor coaching, poor team culture, lack of supporting cast, and so on.

 

If that latter point is the case it stands to reason those players could be successful in a different situation, on a different team.

 

I'm wondering how often we see that this is the case with 1st rounders. That is, how many first rounders fail on the teams that drafted them, only to be released or traded to another team to become as successful as originally projected when they were drafted? Is the specific drafting team situation really a thing that has been proven by those who have changed teams? Or is it mostly a convenient excuse?

 

What are some strong examples of first rounders who failed to live up to expectations on their drafting team, and then left to go to another team and achieved the success that eluded them? Does Jerry Hughes fit this? Are there others?

 

 

Do they have to have moved to another team before they succeeded?

 

The classic recent case is Alex Smith, #1 overall pick of the 2005 draft.  At one point, he was on a list of "top 5 draft busts of all time".  He's splitting starts with the like of Shaun Hill and Troy Smith.

 

Then Harbaugh takes over as HC, the team goes 13-3, and Smith is playing in the conference championship.  But wait, there's a twist - he gets benched for Colin Kaepernick, rides out the SB loss on the pine, gets traded to KC and his quality QB play resumes.

 

 

[akcash]

2 minutes ago, Beck Water said:

 

Do they have to have moved to another team before they succeeded?

 

The classic recent case is Alex Smith, #1 overall pick of the 2005 draft.  At one point, he was on a list of "top 5 draft busts of all time".  He's splitting starts with the like of Shaun Hill and Troy Smith.

 

Then Harbaugh takes over as HC, the team goes 13-3, and Smith is playing in the conference championship.  But wait, there's a twist - he gets benched for Colin Kaepernick, rides out the SB loss on the pine, gets traded to KC and his quality QB play resumes.

 

 

That’s a good one.

[Billy Claude]

Would Jared Goff count?

[Rubes]

3 minutes ago, Beck Water said:

 

Do they have to have moved to another team before they succeeded?

 

The classic recent case is Alex Smith, #1 overall pick of the 2005 draft.  At one point, he was on a list of "top 5 draft busts of all time".  He's splitting starts with the like of Shaun Hill and Troy Smith.

 

Then Harbaugh takes over as HC, the team goes 13-3, and Smith is playing in the conference championship.  But wait, there's a twist - he gets benched for Colin Kaepernick, rides out the SB loss on the pine, gets traded to KC and his quality QB play resumes.

 

 

 

Yeah, @Billy Claude mentioned Alex Smith earlier, but I didn't remember his story until you mentioned it. That's a really good one.

 

[Beck Water]

4 minutes ago, Virgil said:

Drew Brees?

 

Good call - he's kind of an Alex Smith type case though.  His first year was a mess, changed coaches to Marty Schottenheimer and Cam Cameron as OC.  Still embrangled in this weird dynamic with Doug Flutie the next two years, to the point where the Chargers thought he couldn't play and used the #1 pick on a QB.

 

Then, HEY PRESTO, in his 4th year Brees wins Comeback Player of the Year, gets votes for OPOY, goes to the Probowl, team goes 11-4 and next year 9-7 while #1 overall pick sits on the bench and Whatcha Gonna Do Chargers?

 

So they let him go in FA to NO and the rest is history.

[CaptnCoke11]

23 minutes ago, Virgil said:

Drew Brees?

Second round 

[Captain Hindsight]

Baker Mayfield 

[boyst]

28 minutes ago, DrDawkinstein said:

 

2nd rounder. So was Geno Smith.

There are just some things we shouldn't mention on here. Geno Smith. Daron Lee. 43 is the Mike. Nathan Peterman. 

--------

And I can easily win this thread with two players

 

Eli Manning

Phillip Rivers 

 

Both never even got to play a game for the team that drafted them and went on to HOF careers after being traded. 

[JohnBonhamRocks]

Eli did nothing with the Chargers before the Giants

[GoBills!]

Quote

 

Sammy Watson 👀 

[BullBuchanan]

Amari Cooper stared hot and then had 2 terrible seasons before becoming a star with Dallas.
Garrison Hearst took 3 years to get going
Thomas Jones didn't flash until the very last few games of his 4th season and then became a star with the bears in year 5th.

Vinny Testaverde is maybe the NFL's greatest longevity success story in spite of results. Does that count?

 

[Rubes]

2 minutes ago, boyst said:

There are just some things we shouldn't mention on here. Geno Smith. Daron Lee. 43 is the Mike. Nathan Peterman. 

--------

And I can easily win this thread with two players

 

Eli Manning

Phillip Rivers 

 

Both never even got to play a game for the team that drafted them and went on to HOF careers after being traded. 

 

Yeah, I don't think either really counts. Nice try though.

 

 

 

[947]

Robert Gallery.

 

Considered a generational OT prospect, rated a perfect 9.0 pre-draft. Was horrendous at LT & really bad as a RT. Still terrible 2 years later, was labeled as a monumental bust. Moved to OG & was solid, played another 6 years.

 

I remember all the pre-draft concern about his 32.25" arm length, well under the 34" usually wanted in a LT. They were right...

[Joe Mama]

Len Dawson

[Rubes]

Just now, 947 said:

Robert Gallery.

 

Considered a generational OT prospect, rated a perfect 9.0 pre-draft. Was horrendous at LT & really bad as a RT. Still terrible 2 years later, was labeled as a monumental bust. Moved to OG & was solid, played another 6 years.

 

I remember all the pre-draft concern about his 32.25" arm length, well under the 34" usually wanted in a LT. They were right...

 

Not a bad choice, but I don't think a solid career as a G makes up for being a huge disappointment as a first round pick at T.

 

Just now, Joe Mama said:

Len Dawson

 

Dude.

 

[Dave_Bills]

3 minutes ago, 947 said:

Robert Gallery.

 

Considered a generational OT prospect, rated a perfect 9.0 pre-draft. Was horrendous at LT & really bad as a RT. Still terrible 2 years later, was labeled as a monumental bust. Moved to OG & was solid, played another 6 years.

 

I remember all the pre-draft concern about his 32.25" arm length, well under the 34" usually wanted in a LT. They were right...

I’d still classify gallery as a disappointment. He redeemed himself from being horrendous to serviceable. Low bar for a #2 pick

[MJS]

Josh Allen.

 

I'm only kidding a little bit. The media was dunking on him after his first couple of years. Many predicted he would be a bust and they focused on his relatively poor stats to point to.

 

Then he had his breakout year in 2020.

 

For those paying attention, Josh Allen had amazing flashes all through his first couple of years, even though his stats weren't always reflective of his clear talent.

 

This prediction from Mel Kiper is always fun. He gets laughed out of the room for predicting Josh Allen would be the best QB in the AFC East in 5 years (after his rookie season):

 

 

 

Edited April 17 by MJS

[BarleyNY]

27 minutes ago, boyst said:

There are just some things we shouldn't mention on here. Geno Smith. Daron Lee. 43 is the Mike. Nathan Peterman. 

--------

And I can easily win this thread with two players

 

Eli Manning

Phillip Rivers 

 

Both never even got to play a game for the team that drafted them and went on to HOF careers after being traded. 

Then you can add John Elway. In that vein I would include Steve Young, Jim Kelly, Herschel Walker and every other player who found success in the NFL after a career in the USFL. 

[Big Blitz]

Eric Moulds

[Doc Brown]

There's some guys off the top of my head that were once labeled busts but were solid NFL players who never quite lived up to their draft hype.

 

Cordarrelle Patterson, Alex Smith, Solomon Thomas, Reggie Bush, Shaq Lawson

[ajmac]

Baker Mayfield ✅

[NickelCity]

Jerry Hughes 

[MRW]

Ted Washington? Not sure if he was labeled a bust or not but my memory is that he wasn't all that highly thought of until he came to the Bills.

[without a drought]

Jerry Hughes