Saints - “The bill comes due.”

[Bleeding Bills Blue]

4 hours ago, DCofNC said:

They got there the same way the Bills are getting there, always mortgaging the future to pay for this year because they had a shot.  It all started when they had Breese, then they thought they had enough to win the division, then they could get Carr and have another shot.  This is the reason I say, take the medicine once in a while.  I’d take it now, the current roster only has a shot because of JA, it will have pretty much the same shot of you cut all the fat and set yourself up for the future.  Right now, KC runs the AFC, you can beat up on the Jets and Patriots all you want, it won’t matter in the end.

 

We're probably a year away from medicine.  Von, and Knox are fairly obvious candidates for next year. 

 

You could also potentially make several moves this year, but then it probably shifts your draft strategy.  If you trade douglas, and cut white - you save a bunch, but now depth is absolutely barren - so you likely have to sign one and draft another 1 or 2.  We need at least 1 safety for sure, cutting poyer just opens up another spot for a safety.  Same for Morse, you may feel comfortable plugging in bates, but you're actively downgrading at that point.  

 

To me its more of being very careful and methodical on extensions, term of extensions, age of players, etc.  Avoid tacking on tons of void years this year to any free agent contracts, and realistically look for players you want on the roster for multiple seasons.  And this is a draft that needs to have some day 1 contributors at potentially WR, S, and DT/DE.  

[WhitewalkerInPhilly]

14 hours ago, Bills!Win! said:

How did the saints get this way when they’re just an average team 

To make the post of Brees swan song years.

If they had taken a second title, I don't think they would have regretted it. The Bills might do the same with Josh.

[Utah John]

Salary cap games are like a drug addiction.  You get hooked and you can't get off the cycle.

 

The only way for the Saints to meet the NFL's required numbers before the middle of March -- just two or three weeks away -- is to buy more drugs.  They have to restructure some of their contracts to have them count less now, but they're not going to get clean.  They can't even quit cold turkey because the existing obligations won't go away even if the player is cut.  In fact cold turkey makes the immediate problem worse.

 

The Bills are skirting this desperate situation, largely due to Beane breaking his own financial prudence rules and signing Von Miller to that silly contract.  The Biils were prime drug candidates after the 13 second debacle, feeling depressed, and more to the point, letting McDermott blame the lack of a pass rush for the huge team and coaching failure.  So Beane tried going all-in to fix it by popping a few cap pills.  And now the Bills are on the edge of a total addiction collapse in the near future, Josh Allen or no Josh Allen.  The Dawson Knox contract will also be a burden soon, with no good solution in sight.

 

Joe Buscaglia had a good article in the Atlantic a couple of weeks ago about how the Bills could get by for the coming season.  Part of the cure involved buying more drugs.  But it would let the team attempt to continue its success by retaining just enough good players, hoping the draft yields 5 or more starters, or good reserves now who become starters when current players age out, and praying for no more significant injuries.  

 

If there's any good news, it's that Miami is in about the same situation, but debating whether to pay Tua with cap drugs, or try to replace him with a cheap rookie.  Tough choice since Tua has never shown he's a championship QB, just a system guy who can beat up on weak teams.  So the Bills and Dolphins are both vulnerable.  You know who's not?  The Jets.  Watch out. If they get a QB (and can avoid cap death for the Rodgers contract) and can fix their O line, they could win the division.

[Bleeding Bills Blue]

Just now, WhitewalkerInPhilly said:

To make the post of Brees swan song years.

If they had taken a second title, I don't think they would have regretted it. The Bills might do the same with Josh.

 

Yep - then they snagged carr to try and extend the window with this team.  I don't think he's really good enough to do it, but the winston saints were not going anywhere.  1-5 against playoff teams last year on a pretty soft schedule (5-0 against Carolina, NE, NYG, Chicago) tells you all you need to know though.  

[WhitewalkerInPhilly]

6 minutes ago, Bleeding Bills Blue said:

 

We're probably a year away from medicine.  Von, and Knox are fairly obvious candidates for next year. 

 

You could also potentially make several moves this year, but then it probably shifts your draft strategy.  If you trade douglas, and cut white - you save a bunch, but now depth is absolutely barren - so you likely have to sign one and draft another 1 or 2.  We need at least 1 safety for sure, cutting poyer just opens up another spot for a safety.  Same for Morse, you may feel comfortable plugging in bates, but you're actively downgrading at that point.  

 

To me its more of being very careful and methodical on extensions, term of extensions, age of players, etc.  Avoid tacking on tons of void years this year to any free agent contracts, and realistically look for players you want on the roster for multiple seasons.  And this is a draft that needs to have some day 1 contributors at potentially WR, S, and DT/DE.  

I think the best analogy I've heard is effectively how property investors will take on debt. So long as the base income keeps growing, it is very possible to juggle debt sustainably. Sometimes your acquisitions have to slow as you pay out what is owed, or call some projects a wash and take a hit to get it off your spreadsheets. But careful management means sustainable growth and improvement.

 

Alternately, you max out everything and pray it works out. The Saints did the latter.

1 minute ago, Bleeding Bills Blue said:

 

Yep - then they snagged carr to try and extend the window with this team.  I don't think he's really good enough to do it, but the winston saints were not going anywhere.  1-5 against playoff teams last year on a pretty soft schedule (5-0 against Carolina, NE, NYG, Chicago) tells you all you need to know though.  

Oh I agree. Things were bad when Peyton left, but I hadn't realized that they had kept going.

[T master]

14 hours ago, Bills!Win! said:

How did the saints get this way when they’re just an average team 

 

Wasn't most of this done while Sean Payton was there ? I think all the contracts with Drew Breeze, Kamara, and others then they went out & paid Derek Carr a ton of money too which they were in a bad place before he got there .

[ColoradoBills]

The New Orleans Saints do not have a good football team.

They are in a weak division and haven't made the playoffs since Brees left (3 years).

They are 25-26 in the last 3 years (in that weak division) and should have totally reset in 2021.

You reap what you sow.

 

I still laugh when fans think their "blueprint" is in any way worth emulating.

[Punching Bag]

57 minutes ago, Steptide said:

Derek Carr 

 

They were in cap hell before they signed Derek Carr.

[Steptide]

1 minute ago, Punching Bag said:

 

They were in cap hell before they signed Derek Carr.

Maybe, but he's still probly a big reason they're mediocre 

[Punching Bag]

52 minutes ago, Utah John said:

If there's any good news, it's that Miami is in about the same situation, but debating whether to pay Tua with cap drugs, or try to replace him with a cheap rookie.  Tough choice since Tua has never shown he's a championship QB, just a system guy who can beat up on weak teams.  So the Bills and Dolphins are both vulnerable.  You know who's not?  The Jets.  Watch out. If they get a QB (and can avoid cap death for the Rodgers contract) and can fix their O line, they could win the division.

 

I doubt the JESTS will find fairy dust.

[Utah John]

56 minutes ago, Punching Bag said:

 

I doubt the JESTS will find fairy dust.

What they have is a very strong defense, a top-tier RB, and one of the best WRs in the game.  It's really their O line that's held them back.  Also the QB although I still don't know if Zach Wilson could be a legitimate starter since he's been completely mis-handled his entire career.  

[GunnerBill]

Just now, Utah John said:

What they have is a very strong defense, a top-tier RB, and one of the best WRs in the game.  It's really their O line that's held them back.  Also the QB although I still don't know if Zach Wilson could be a legitimate starter since he's been completely mis-handled his entire career.  

 

I don't think Bryce is top tier and the rest of their WRs aside from Wilson suck balls.

[RoyBatty is alive]

16 hours ago, Warriorspikes51 said:

If Michael Thomas is cut, I wonder what his market value is?  Could be an intriguing option

He is 31 and has been mediocre since his stellar 2019. I would pass let someone else overpay him.

[hondo in seattle]

16 hours ago, John from Riverside said:

The big differences, the bills have a franchise quarterback with a contract that is structured so that they can continue to restructure for cap relief

 

But restructuring doesn't save you any money.  It postpones a problem but doesn't solve it.  

[Ridgewaycynic2013]

1 hour ago, Punching Bag said:

 

I doubt the JESTS will find fairy dust.

There's your next 'Breaking Bad'.  A major pharmaceutical corporation funds and supplies the illicit drug trade in order for the NYJ to have the capital to win the Super Bowl.

*
🤔

[RoyBatty is alive]

2 hours ago, WhitewalkerInPhilly said:

To make the post of Brees swan song years.

If they had taken a second title, I don't think they would have regretted it. The Bills might do the same with Josh.

Agreed and the Saints should have been in Super Bowl in 2018 with the non-PI call on former Bill Nickell Roby Colman.

[BuffaloBill]

16 hours ago, BuffaloBillsGospel2014 said:

I read restructuring Allen this season will free up 23M alone. 

 

 

Lost in the restructures is what does that do to the future?  No doubt restructures have to be a part of the process but situations like Tre White, Von Miller and even Diggs show the longer term downside to the practice.  

[TheFunPolice]

15 hours ago, NoSaint said:

Because when Sean Payton left the front office and coaches didn’t want to take their medicine with a rebuild and made wild decisions that should be reserved for teams with at least a chance to compete. 
 

they continue To do so 

 

in their defense, in the NFC South 6-11 has a chance to win the division. 

Edited February 26 by TheFunPolice

[billsfan89]

18 hours ago, Bills!Win! said:

How did the saints get this way when they’re just an average team 

Brees last few years they really floored it to try and win with him and then they just kept going with it never really bottoming out

[Dr.Mantis_Toboggan]

Smart move is to just take your lumps for the next 2-3 years, off any player with value for whatever picks they can get, even if they are day 3s, and just field a roster of rookies and vet minimum guys while you bottom out and stack up some top draft picks.

 

Once you do this, don’t ruin it all by giving $250 million fully guaranteed to a sex pest.

[BuffaL0L0k0]

20 hours ago, Warriorspikes51 said:

If Michael Thomas is cut, I wonder what his market value is?  Could be an intriguing option

Man is not going to get healthier every year tha goes by... as the past 3-4 seasons have shown, maybe with exception of late 2023, but again, father time will knock the door...

[Roundybout]

20 hours ago, Warriorspikes51 said:

If Michael Thomas is cut, I wonder what his market value is?  Could be an intriguing option

Nah, the guy is made of paper maché at this point of his career. Hasn’t played a full season since 2019.

Edited February 26 by Roundybout

[Alphadawg7]

But the cap isn't real...as so I have read on this board lol

[NoSaint]

3 hours ago, billsfan89 said:

Brees last few years they really floored it to try and win with him and then they just kept going with it never really bottoming out

the approach to the post Payton era has been just nonsensical. The only explanation is trying to preserve pride and avoid “it was just Sean and drew” comments 

 

I’ll echo, they have 40m on the books in the running back room if that’s where you map taysom.
 

Plus they’ve locked themselves to carr for 2 more years and doubled down on Dennis Allen. It’s like they are praying all the bad choices just kind of work out and somehow they look good in the end 

[stuvian]

Dennis Allen's command of this team looks shaky. Their offense was unwatchable. I expect the likes of BB or Vrabel to be brought on as "special advisor".

[mjt328]

21 hours ago, Bleeding Bills Blue said:

We're probably a year away from medicine.  Von, and Knox are fairly obvious candidates for next year. 

 

You could also potentially make several moves this year, but then it probably shifts your draft strategy.  If you trade douglas, and cut white - you save a bunch, but now depth is absolutely barren - so you likely have to sign one and draft another 1 or 2.  We need at least 1 safety for sure, cutting poyer just opens up another spot for a safety.  Same for Morse, you may feel comfortable plugging in bates, but you're actively downgrading at that point.  

 

To me its more of being very careful and methodical on extensions, term of extensions, age of players, etc.  Avoid tacking on tons of void years this year to any free agent contracts, and realistically look for players you want on the roster for multiple seasons.  And this is a draft that needs to have some day 1 contributors at potentially WR, S, and DT/DE.  

 

The best way to avoid salary cap hell is by drafting well.

 

The Saints were headed into a very bad financial situation several years back.  But then the 2017 draft class netted them 5 very good starters (Lattimore, Ramczyk, Williams, Kamara and Hendrickson).  That allowed them to extend their window significantly.  

 

Brandon Beane has been a solid/good drafter during his tenure here, regardless of what some fans say.  He consistently gets 2-3 starting caliber players every single year, allowing the team to replace outgoing veterans (such as Tremaine Edmunds with Terrell Bernard) and get little to no drop-off.  I'm confident the same thing will happen this season.  

 

What the Bills could REALLY use is a homerun draft.  Something closer to what 2017-2018 netted us.

• Instead of getting 2-3 solid guys, if we could end up with 4-5.
• Instead of just being solid starters, maybe we could get an All-Pro or two in the mix. 
• It would also be nice for rookies to make a more immediate impact.  It seems like the majority of Beane's picks are slow-burners.  They do little to nothing as rookies and then take 3-4 years to really get going.  The most recent examples are Ed Oliver and AJ Epenesa.

 

[GunnerBill]

12 minutes ago, mjt328 said:

 

The best way to avoid salary cap hell is by drafting well.

 

The Saints were headed into a very bad financial situation several years back.  But then the 2017 draft class netted them 5 very good starters (Lattimore, Ramczyk, Williams, Kamara and Hendrickson).  That allowed them to extend their window significantly.  

 

Brandon Beane has been a solid/good drafter during his tenure here, regardless of what some fans say.  He consistently gets 2-3 starting caliber players every single year, allowing the team to replace outgoing veterans (such as Tremaine Edmunds with Terrell Bernard) and get little to no drop-off.  I'm confident the same thing will happen this season.  

 

What the Bills could REALLY use is a homerun draft.  Something closer to what 2017-2018 netted us.

• Instead of getting 2-3 solid guys, if we could end up with 4-5.
• Instead of just being solid starters, maybe we could get an All-Pro or two in the mix. 
• It would also be nice for rookies to make a more immediate impact.  It seems like the majority of Beane's picks are slow-burners.  They do little to nothing as rookies and then take 3-4 years to really get going.  The most recent examples are Ed Oliver and AJ Epenesa.

 

 

I largely agree but Ed Oliver was good every year except year 2. He didn't get the gaudy sack numbers until this year but his underlying analytics pressures and pass rush win rate show he was still affecting the pocket plenty. 

[Bleeding Bills Blue]

37 minutes ago, mjt328 said:

 

The best way to avoid salary cap hell is by drafting well.

 

The Saints were headed into a very bad financial situation several years back.  But then the 2017 draft class netted them 5 very good starters (Lattimore, Ramczyk, Williams, Kamara and Hendrickson).  That allowed them to extend their window significantly.  

 

Brandon Beane has been a solid/good drafter during his tenure here, regardless of what some fans say.  He consistently gets 2-3 starting caliber players every single year, allowing the team to replace outgoing veterans (such as Tremaine Edmunds with Terrell Bernard) and get little to no drop-off.  I'm confident the same thing will happen this season.  

 

What the Bills could REALLY use is a homerun draft.  Something closer to what 2017-2018 netted us.

• Instead of getting 2-3 solid guys, if we could end up with 4-5.
• Instead of just being solid starters, maybe we could get an All-Pro or two in the mix. 
• It would also be nice for rookies to make a more immediate impact.  It seems like the majority of Beane's picks are slow-burners.  They do little to nothing as rookies and then take 3-4 years to really get going.  The most recent examples are Ed Oliver and AJ Epenesa.

 

 

They definitely need some starters on rookie deals.  Right now they have -

 

Offense: Shakir, Torrence, Brown, Kincaid, and Cook

Defense: Rousseau, Bernard, Benford

 

So they definitely need to add some players on the defensive side of the ball - especially on the defensive line.  Offensively I think they need to add a younger pass catcher, and i think it'd be nice to add a mid-round lineman.  

[Punching Bag]

36 minutes ago, mjt328 said:

 

The best way to avoid salary cap hell is by drafting well.

 

The Saints were headed into a very bad financial situation several years back.  But then the 2017 draft class netted them 5 very good starters (Lattimore, Ramczyk, Williams, Kamara and Hendrickson).  That allowed them to extend their window significantly.  

 

Brandon Beane has been a solid/good drafter during his tenure here, regardless of what some fans say.  He consistently gets 2-3 starting caliber players every single year, allowing the team to replace outgoing veterans (such as Tremaine Edmunds with Terrell Bernard) and get little to no drop-off.  I'm confident the same thing will happen this season.  

 

What the Bills could REALLY use is a homerun draft.  Something closer to what 2017-2018 netted us.

• Instead of getting 2-3 solid guys, if we could end up with 4-5.
• Instead of just being solid starters, maybe we could get an All-Pro or two in the mix. 
• It would also be nice for rookies to make a more immediate impact.  It seems like the majority of Beane's picks are slow-burners.  They do little to nothing as rookies and then take 3-4 years to really get going.  The most recent examples are Ed Oliver and AJ Epenesa.

 

AJ Epenesa was due to repeating different directions on what they wanted his weight to be starting with the season without team workouts due to COVID-19.

Despite the help of the Bills he seemed to get more help from his sister, a nutritionist.

Some of the stuff is in the Athletic article  (Joe Buscaglia, Sep 17, 2022) and today this article is available to me. 

https://theathletic.com/3600859/2022/09/17/bills-aj-epenesa/

 

I do hope they can find a way to keep him.  

Bills like to send defense linemen in waves to keep them fresh but that also drives up the cost of line and slows down development.

I liked it when Bills had defense linemen who could stay on field like Bruce Smith and Phil Hansen.  

Dwight Freeney was another good example of a smaller DE who could take the pounding.

 

[GunnerBill]

7 minutes ago, Punching Bag said:

 

Bills like to send defense linemen in waves to keep them fresh but that also drives up the cost of line and slows down development.

I liked it when Bills had defense linemen who could stay on field like Bruce Smith and Phil Hansen.  

Dwight Freeney was another good example of a smaller DE who could take the pounding.

 

 

All the best teams pretty much do now. I crunched the numbers on this recently. KC have three who played high 60s percentage wise, but the majority of teams have one guy playing 65-75% and then 1 or 2 in the mid 50s and a load of rotation beneath that. The issue is the Bills haven't had cheap guys in that rotation. It has been decent FA deals or high picks. One of KC's three heavy usage guys is Mike Danna - a 5th round pick. That is the kind of thing we need, some cheap, young guys capable of being in that 7 or 8 man rotation. 

[mjt328]

22 hours ago, Utah John said:

Salary cap games are like a drug addiction.  You get hooked and you can't get off the cycle.

 

The only way for the Saints to meet the NFL's required numbers before the middle of March -- just two or three weeks away -- is to buy more drugs.  They have to restructure some of their contracts to have them count less now, but they're not going to get clean.  They can't even quit cold turkey because the existing obligations won't go away even if the player is cut.  In fact cold turkey makes the immediate problem worse.

 

The Bills are skirting this desperate situation, largely due to Beane breaking his own financial prudence rules and signing Von Miller to that silly contract.  The Biils were prime drug candidates after the 13 second debacle, feeling depressed, and more to the point, letting McDermott blame the lack of a pass rush for the huge team and coaching failure.  So Beane tried going all-in to fix it by popping a few cap pills.  And now the Bills are on the edge of a total addiction collapse in the near future, Josh Allen or no Josh Allen.  The Dawson Knox contract will also be a burden soon, with no good solution in sight.

 

Joe Buscaglia had a good article in the Atlantic a couple of weeks ago about how the Bills could get by for the coming season.  Part of the cure involved buying more drugs.  But it would let the team attempt to continue its success by retaining just enough good players, hoping the draft yields 5 or more starters, or good reserves now who become starters when current players age out, and praying for no more significant injuries.  

 

If there's any good news, it's that Miami is in about the same situation, but debating whether to pay Tua with cap drugs, or try to replace him with a cheap rookie.  Tough choice since Tua has never shown he's a championship QB, just a system guy who can beat up on weak teams.  So the Bills and Dolphins are both vulnerable.  You know who's not?  The Jets.  Watch out. If they get a QB (and can avoid cap death for the Rodgers contract) and can fix their O line, they could win the division.

 

The Bills cap situation is nowhere near the catastrophe people want to make it.

 

In the past, you had teams like the Saints (buying up every top free agent on the market) or the Rams (trading away top picks for star players).  With the exception of the Von Miller move two years ago... literally one player contract, Brandon Beane has been consistent with his plan of building through the draft and getting low-priced free agents to fill-out the depth.

 

Annual contract restructures are done by literally every team, including the 3x World Champion Kansas City Chiefs we have been desperately trying to catch.  They only become an issue when the player becomes old/ineffective and you can no longer part ways.  Restructuring Josh Allen every year holds zero risk.  Because when he becomes old and ineffective, the team falls apart and needs a rebuild anyway.  We will continue using this method every year to clear $20-30 million, and it will be OK.  Trust me.  They aren't doing this with every contract on the team.  Only a handful each year who strategically make sense.

 

The only current contracts the Bills have which are really a burden are with Miller (as already mentioned), and possibly Stefon Diggs.  Both have outs in 2024.  So if we can get by one more year "kicking the can down the road" - we can clear a lot of cap space by next offseason.  The idea that our cap problems will continue to compound infinitely simply isn't true.

 

Everyone freaked out last year, because the Bills were leaving huge holes at Middle Linebacker and Right Tackle.  Then Terrell Bernard and Spencer Brown developed and stepped up.  Everything was OK.  So as long as Beane continues to draft well, we can continue rolling.  We enter this offseason with questions at WR2, DE, DT and FS.  We should be able to address at least two of those spots with minimal cap space, and the others with draft picks.  

 

[billsfan89]

19 hours ago, NoSaint said:

the approach to the post Payton era has been just nonsensical. The only explanation is trying to preserve pride and avoid “it was just Sean and drew” comments 

 

I’ll echo, they have 40m on the books in the running back room if that’s where you map taysom.
 

Plus they’ve locked themselves to carr for 2 more years and doubled down on Dennis Allen. It’s like they are praying all the bad choices just kind of work out and somehow they look good in the end 

 

It's very Isaiah Thomas Knicks-era style of management. Thomas would trade expiring contracts for players with more years left on their deals which would have made sense had those players been better than the players whose contracts were expiring. But the players Thomas traded for were the same mediocre overpaid type of players he was trading away except the Knicks were now saddled with a player with more years on their contract. When pressed about this cycle on the radio Thomas said that it doesn't matter the Knicks are saddled with bad contracts because in a few years, those deals will be expiring contracts. 

 

I will give the Saints some "credit" in that after their 2020 last run with Drew their last three seasons aren't tragic (a pair of 9-8 seasons and a 7-10 season) but the issue is that rather than tank a year to get out from under their cap issues and maybe snag a QB in the top of the draft they just kept going with these short term shenanigans. 

Edited February 27 by billsfan89

[Just in Atlanta]

That’s like having your 1989 Ford Festiva repossessed.

[Fleezoid]

 

[billsfan714]

When i was messing with the Saints cap on Spotrac I couldnt believe there weren't a lot of cuts to be made that saved much money.

[BuffaloBillsGospel2014]

On 2/25/2024 at 9:03 PM, DrBob806 said:

It just kicks the can down the road, like the Saints.

There is no other choice, the good thing is Allen is here for the long run.

[Punching Bag]

Former NFL Head Coach Concerned The New Orleans Saints 'Are Already Over' The NFL Salary Cap For The 2025 Season

https://www.si.com/nfl/saints/news/saints-salary-cap-issues-for-2025

Quote

NEW ORLEANS - During "Airing It Out" on Monday morning, Charlie Weis criticized the New Orleans Saints for being the only team over the NFL salary cap for the 2025 season despite currently tackling their 2024 salary cap issues.

 

"I read one thing this morning, Bob, which really shows you how some teams are in some serious, serious trouble," former NFL head coach Charlie Weis told Papa. "They're the only team in the league that right now is already over the 2025 [salary cap]...when are you ever going to get out from underneath the salary cap problems if you keep on pushing everything down the road?"

 

He coached for the Cheats so he knows cheating when he sees it.

[TBBills Fan]

On 2/28/2024 at 12:08 PM, Just in Atlanta said:

That’s like having your 1989 Ford Festiva repossessed.

I feel attacked

[Pine Barrens Mafia]

This guy's a yahoo, but he's right about this point

 

 

[without a drought]

On 2/28/2024 at 12:08 PM, Just in Atlanta said:

That’s like having your 1989 Ford Festiva repossessed.

At least I still have my Yugo.