Josh made the right call to go for the TD

[Success]

I am beyond tired of the national hand-wringing about that play.  It was THERE.  I've actually heard fans argue that what Allen SHOULD have done is to just keep picking up small chunks, and then score a TD with just a few seconds left on the clock.

 

As though you can script something like that perfectly.  Then there is a holding penalty, or sack, or turnover, or you just can't get in the endzone.  Allen saw Shakir wide open for 6, and he went for it.  And, as we all know, if Chris Jones gets there a half second later, that's a TD and we're likely up by 4.

 

I'm like, is that the best that you've got, Allen haters?  The guy plays a great game, should have had at least 100 more yards and another TD if his receivers could hang onto the ball - and you're saying "same ol' Allen" because he went for an OPEN TOUCHDOWN.

 

And I hope Mahomes throws 3 picks this week so we can all see the double-standard.  It won't be nearly as analyzed and dissected.

 

[Low Positive]

Exactly. If Chris Jones doesn't drive Dion into Josh then that is a TD. BTW, he still would have probably missed Diggs underneath for the same reason. The only criticism that I can muster here is that maybe Josh should have slid to his right a bit to get clear of the pressure, but that is really picking nits.

[Bob Jones]

No he didn’t. Especially because it didn't succeed.

Just now, Low Positive said:

Exactly. If Chris Jones doesn't drive Dion into Josh then that is a TD. BTW, he still would have probably missed Diggs underneath for the same reason. The only criticism that I can muster here is that maybe Josh should have slid to his right a bit to get clear of the pressure, but that is really picking nits.

Jus like the OP threw out bad things that MAY have happened had they played to run out the clock, I'll throw out that the catch still had to be made. Of course, there is ZERO guarantee of that.

[Governor]

7 minutes ago, Success said:

I am beyond tired of the national hand-wringing about that play.  It was THERE.  I've actually heard fans argue that what Allen SHOULD have done is to just keep picking up small chunks, and then score a TD with just a few seconds left on the clock.

 

As though you can script something like that perfectly.  Then there is a holding penalty, or sack, or turnover, or you just can't get in the endzone.  Allen saw Shakir wide open for 6, and he went for it.  And, as we all know, if Chris Jones gets there a half second later, that's a TD and we're likely up by 4.

 

I'm like, is that the best that you've got, Allen haters?  The guy plays a great game, should have had at least 100 more yards and another TD if his receivers could hang onto the ball - and you're saying "same ol' Allen" because he went for an OPEN TOUCHDOWN.

 

And I hope Mahomes throws 3 picks this week so we can all see the double-standard.  It won't be nearly as analyzed and dissected.

 

What fans and coaches expect from Josh is just absolutely insane. He’s supposed to kill an entire quarter of clock and instantly throw a TD when McD snaps his fingers, and every week.

[frostbitmic]

If Josh hit Shakir for the TD there, maybe the Chiefs would leave a minute on the clock after they retook the lead.

[Low Positive]

In retrospect, my least favorite play on that drive was the run up the middle to get to the two-minute warning. It felt like wasting a down when the BIlls didn't have downs to waste. 

[34-78-83]

2 minutes ago, Governor said:

What fans and coaches expect from Josh is just absolutely insane. He’s supposed to kill an entire quarter of clock and instantly throw a TD when McD snaps his fingers, and every week.

Its only fans... the coaches expected him to take the shot that he did if it was open, which it was.

[Bferra13]

1 minute ago, frostbitmic said:

If Josh hit Shakir for the TD there, maybe the Chiefs would leave a minute on the clock after they retook the lead.

This... in retrospect, it's not the right call to go for the td, but at the same time I get it. They needed to bleed the clock and score with no time left. The way our d was playing and down bodies it was our only shot besides kc leaving too much time on clock. But again, in the heat of the moment easier said than done.

[streetkings01]

It was the right play period! I keep seeing people say he should’ve took the check down to Diggs and kept the ball moving……the issue is it’s a 3 point game and all a FG does is tie the game…..the TD gives us a 4 point lead and forces KC to drive down the game for a TD. You cant treat a game tying drive the same as game winning drive. If the opportunity presents itself to score a touchdown to take the lead you have to take it whenever it presents itself regardless of the time on the clock. Josh took it and it didn’t work….move on.

Edited January 25 by streetkings01

[BullBuchanan]

lol, no it wasn't. Josh scores a TD there and we lose. Mahomes beat us with 13 seconds and a far stronger defense.  He would have had a 1:45 and a pile of timeouts. There would just be a different person to blame. The right play there was to wind the clock down as far as possible and get the TD with under 30 seconds or tie it with a FG as time expires

[BBFL]

Absolutely right IMO. That throw was on a rope if he’s not knocked backward. We’ve seen him make that throw countless times… none better than the one against Denver a few years back when he connected with Kumerow. 
 

That throw to Diggs is the one people should be focusing on. Would have put us at the 25 with around 8 minutes left. Not a lot of clock would have been used after that drive and barring KC milking at worst 6 minutes of the clock, we’d still have something to work with. 
 

Furthermore, let’s say we settled for a FG and missed there also the game wouldn’t have been over with one new set of downs. 
 

That weird TO on our first drive after the half was huge. Especially because we had a delay of game after an incompletion. I know we scored a touchdown so it becomes a little less of an issue but it certainly didn’t help at the end of the game there. 
 

That TO coupled with the incompletion to Diggs are bigger causes for us losing. Can’t hang anything on Josh. 
 

The passing number weren’t gaudy but he did everything right and played a pretty flawless game. Guys just didn’t execute for him. Concerning when one of them is our second highest paid guy on offense… and boy did he have a few that night. 

[BarleyNY]

Just now, Low Positive said:

Exactly. If Chris Jones doesn't drive Dion into Josh then that is a TD. BTW, he still would have probably missed Diggs underneath for the same reason. The only criticism that I can muster here is that maybe Josh should have slid to his right a bit to get clear of the pressure, but that is really picking nits.

Diggs was open earlier though. If Josh had gone to him he’d have gotten the ball off cleanly. I will very rarely complain about a player or coach being aggressive, but Diggs was the right throw for that reason. I like that Allen wants to go for the big throw, but that wasn't the time. 

 

The bleeding the clock argument is valid as it is a legitimate strategy in situations like this. Even if we would’ve had to settle for a FG, it would have been much shorter and there would have been a lot less time on the clock. Or we could’ve won outright with a TD. 

[Warcodered]

1 minute ago, BullBuchanan said:

lol, no it wasn't. Josh scores a TD there and we lose. Mahomes beat us with 13 seconds and a far stronger defense.  He would have had a 1:45 and a pile of timeouts. There would just be a different person to blame. The right play there was to wind the clock down as far as possible and get the TD with under 30 seconds or tie it with a FG as time expires

He did make the right call, he makes the other call there if he even could have and if any of a dozen other scenarios play out where we don't win and he's getting killed for not taking that throw. This is nothing but wishful thinking.

[Low Positive]

1 minute ago, BullBuchanan said:

lol, no it wasn't. Josh scores a TD there and we lose. Mahomes beat us with 13 seconds and a far stronger defense.  He would have had a 1:45 and a pile of timeouts. There would just be a different person to blame. The right play there was to wind the clock down as far as possible and get the TD with under 30 seconds or tie it with a FG as time expires

Again, hindsight being 20/20, the correct move might have been to run the ball to force KC to take their TOs. Then on 4th down, you could have run it down to just over a minute before kicking. 13 seconds was only possible because they had all three TOs. 

[Ramza86]

100% it was the right call. It was open and the confidence of the throw was there. 

He just got hit. What else can you do.

[beebe]

9 minutes ago, Success said:

I am beyond tired of the national hand-wringing about that play.  It was THERE.  I've actually heard fans argue that what Allen SHOULD have done is to just keep picking up small chunks, and then score a TD with just a few seconds left on the clock.

 

As though you can script something like that perfectly.  Then there is a holding penalty, or sack, or turnover, or you just can't get in the endzone.  Allen saw Shakir wide open for 6, and he went for it.  And, as we all know, if Chris Jones gets there a half second later, that's a TD and we're likely up by 4.

 

I'm like, is that the best that you've got, Allen haters?  The guy plays a great game, should have had at least 100 more yards and another TD if his receivers could hang onto the ball - and you're saying "same ol' Allen" because he went for an OPEN TOUCHDOWN.

 

And I hope Mahomes throws 3 picks this week so we can all see the double-standard.  It won't be nearly as analyzed and dissected.

 

 

There's more options for NFL media content than at any point in human history. So much smart content being written by data/analytics people. So many good NFL and team-specific podcasts that are smart and informed. So many great film breakdown guys. Yet the people on this forum become glued to ESPN, Nick Wright, etc, and repeat being outraged over media portrayal when they shove oversimplified narratives down your throat. 

 

Andy Reid has been a brilliant coach his entire NFL career and only in the last five years has he gotten his due credit (many now think he is better than Belichick, which would have gotten you laughed out of the room previously.) Mahomes has made six AFC championships in six years, yet was within a whisker of falling to 0-4 vs Joe Burrow in last year's AFC title game and had to hear about how he was the inferior QB because of it. 

 

Football is a team game consisting of 53 players, a dozen coaches and support staff, with so many moving pieces that influence the outcome - weather, luck, officiating, homefield, injuries, etc. These games are so routinely close it comes down to randomness as much as it does skill.

 

And yet we keep dumbing it down to the performance of a single player - always the quarterback.

 

It's stupid. 

[Governor]

3 minutes ago, BarleyNY said:

Diggs was open earlier though. If Josh had gone to him he’d have gotten the ball off cleanly. I will very rarely complain about a player or coach being aggressive, but Diggs was the right throw for that reason. I like that Allen wants to go for the big throw, but that wasn't the time. 

 

The bleeding the clock argument is valid as it is a legitimate strategy in situations like this. Even if we would’ve had to settle for a FG, it would have been much shorter and there would have been a lot less time on the clock. Or we could’ve won outright with a TD. 

Diggs would have dropped it anyway. Josh was done looking his way.

[CincyBillsFan]

3 minutes ago, BullBuchanan said:

lol, no it wasn't. Josh scores a TD there and we lose. Mahomes beat us with 13 seconds and a far stronger defense.  He would have had a 1:45 and a pile of timeouts. There would just be a different person to blame. The right play there was to wind the clock down as far as possible and get the TD with under 30 seconds or tie it with a FG as time expires

If Bass makes that FG we lose but given that KC did falter a couple of times in the red zone I would have liked our chances with a 4 point lead and less then 2 minutes left.

 

The real problem is that Allen, while trailing by 3 late in a playoff game, had to not only worry about scoring the winning TD against one of the best D's in football but also was expected to manage the clock and run it down to almost nothing.  All because the Bills D, which has received the lions share of resources over the last 5 years, couldn't be expected to make the stop.  This is the root of the problem, not any perceived failings of Allen here.

 

 

 

[BullBuchanan]

1 minute ago, Warcodered said:

He did make the right call, he makes the other call there if he even could have and if any of a dozen other scenarios play out where we don't win and he's getting killed for not taking that throw. This is nothing but wishful thinking.

Only losers think and play like that. Put KC in our shoes and they run the clock down to nothing and win as football 101 strategy dictates you should. It's not like Josh doesn't have a career's worth of these mental mistakes already to look back on.

I know it would have been nice to say we had the lead and blame the defense when they couldn't hold. But we all should know based on how they played that they wouldn't hold. KC had one punt all game. The offense was our strength, like it or not. That's what you bet on.

3 minutes ago, Ramza86 said:

100% it was the right call. It was open and the confidence of the throw was there. 

He just got hit. What else can you do.

watch the play again. He didn't get hit until after the ball was gone.

1 minute ago, CincyBillsFan said:

If Bass makes that FG we lose but given that KC did falter a couple of times in the red zone I would have liked our chances with a 4 point lead and less then 2 minutes left.

 

The real problem is that Allen, while trailing by 3 late in a playoff game, had to not only worry about scoring the winning TD against one of the best D's in football but also was expected to manage the clock and run it down to almost nothing.  All because the Bills D, which has received the lions share of resources over the last 5 years, couldn't be expected to make the stop.  This is the root of the problem, not any perceived failings of Allen here.

 

 

 

That's an extremely common ask that any championship coach would ask of his QB. This isn't the 80s or even the 90s anymore. If you want to be called elite, you have to be able to score at will in the redzone.

[Brandon]

Yes,  it was the right decision.  Shakir was open. 

 

Sure,  in an ideal world,  they could run more clock and still score the TD to win.  In reality,  they may have never gotten the same opportunity to score a TD and Bass may still have missed the FG to tie.   And if that happened, the same people complaining about Josh throwing that pass to Shakir would be complaining that he DIDN'T throw that pass to Shakir. 

 

 

[Ramza86]

2 minutes ago, BullBuchanan said:

Only losers think and play like that. Put KC in our shoes and they run the clock down to nothing and win as football 101 strategy dictates you should. It's not like Josh doesn't have a career's worth of these mental mistakes already to look back on.

I know it would have been nice to say we had the lead and blame the defense when they couldn't hold. But we all should know based on how they played that they wouldn't hold. KC had one punt all game. The offense was our strength, like it or not. That's what you bet on.

watch the play again. He didn't get hit until after the ball was gone.

 

https://www.espn.com/video/clip/_/id/39359782

Hes clearly interfered with in his process of the throw.

[Roundybout]

11 minutes ago, BullBuchanan said:

lol, no it wasn't. Josh scores a TD there and we lose. Mahomes beat us with 13 seconds and a far stronger defense.  He would have had a 1:45 and a pile of timeouts. There would just be a different person to blame. The right play there was to wind the clock down as far as possible and get the TD with under 30 seconds or tie it with a FG as time expires

How do you know we would have allowed a touchdown?

[BuffaloBill]

From a situational football standpoint it was the wrong call. Too much time on the clock and a harder throw to complete (based on yards and conditions). Love JA to death but he can get too confident sometimes. This is one of them. 
 

keep in mind the d was shown to be extremely vulnerable so Mahomes had enough time left to score. 
 

with all of that said it a point of conjecture. It does not

matter now.  

[JJGauna]

Love Josh, no issue with him taking a shot. However, how many times did Brady have us in a similar situation. He would milk the clock and leave us 5 seconds left. I hope Josh can reach that level some day.

 

Edit: I stand corrected Brady only did that a time or two, usually the games were never close.

Edited January 25 by JJGauna

[Matt_In_NH]

First I have heard this being discussed, how interesting

[Success]

Just now, JJGauna said:

Love Josh, no issue with him taking a shot. However, how many times did Brady have us in a similar situation. He would milk the clock and leave us 5 seconds left. I hope Josh can reach that level some day.

 

I actually don't remember Brady doing that at all.  They didn't fear our offense.

 

[BarleyNY]

8 minutes ago, Governor said:

Diggs would have dropped it anyway. Josh was done looking his way.

I do wonder if Allen did quit looking Diggs’ way. 

[Matt_In_NH]

1 minute ago, JJGauna said:

how many times did Brady have us in a similar situation.

How many times?  I can't think of any that were like this Chiefs game. 

[CincyBillsFan]

3 minutes ago, BullBuchanan said:

That's an extremely common ask that any championship coach would ask of his QB. This isn't the 80s or even the 90s anymore. If you want to be called elite, you have to be able to score at will in the redzone.

Allen is elite and to suggest otherwise indicates an extreme ignorance of football.

 

Also when playing one of the best defenses in the NFL and needing to score a TD to win the game you take it any time you can with under 2 minutes to play.  The idea that it's easy to both score the TD and use up the last bit of clock is wrong.  Don't forget that the Bills had already executed 15 plays and used up over 6 minutes on that drive. 

 

The fact is that the run play on 1st down forced Allen to go for the TD on 2nd down when it it didn't gain anything.  The idea that a throw to Diggs picks up the first down is not supported by the video evidence.  We likely would have been left with a 3rd and 4 or 5 which while easier to pick up in no way is a gimme.

 

 

 

 

[Rich Stadium Original]

Not to be hyper-technical here, but I think that more than the bump from Dawkins is the fact that Dawnkins stepped on his foot just as he was about to throw..thats why it was all arm and fell short.

[BullBuchanan]

2 minutes ago, Roundybout said:

How do you know we would have allowed a touchdown?

Because I've watched Patrick Mahomes for 6 years and that's what he does. I also watched what he did to our defense. It gave you a slim  chance for a win - much better than kicking a tying field goal there with the same time left, which IMO was a guaranteed loss.

[TheyCallMeAndy]

Josh should have had better pocket awareness and sensed the pressure, but that split second it takes to shuffle the window for the pass may have been much tighter.

 

I have zero issues with the call, the play was designed to be a TD. 

[billieve420]

32 minutes ago, streetkings01 said:

It was the right play period! I keep seeing people say he should’ve took the check down to Diggs and kept the ball moving……the issue is it’s a 3 point game and all a FG does is tie the game…..the TD gives us a 4 point lead and forces KC to drive down the game for a TD. You cant treat a game tying drive the same as game winning drive. If the opportunity presents itself to score a touchdown to take the lead you have to take it whenever it presents itself regardless of the time on the clock. Josh took it and it didn’t work….move on.

 

Diggs wasn't even looked at so he was probably a decoy to draw attention. So to me it was the wrong call at the wrong time. Maybe if you take that shot on first down I have less of an issue with it since KC would have been expecting run.

 

30 yd TD as we saw is not a given. Let's say that ball went to Diggs then and he doesn't get the first but gets 4 yds. Now it is 3rd and 5. Your  odds of converting go up. So on 3rd down I am again looking to get that first down to keep the clock moving. Even if it was 4th and short. I am not kicking the FG and keeping the ball in my best player's hand. Once it was 4th and 9 we had no other choice but to attempt the FG. However, I don't doubt that KC which had moved ball all night wouldn't have drove down for the winning FG even if Bass tied up the game.   

Edited January 25 by billieve420

[Warcodered]

12 minutes ago, BullBuchanan said:

Only losers think and play like that. Put KC in our shoes and they run the clock down to nothing and win as football 101 strategy dictates you should. It's not like Josh doesn't have a career's worth of these mental mistakes already to look back on.

I know it would have been nice to say we had the lead and blame the defense when they couldn't hold. But we all should know based on how they played that they wouldn't hold. KC had one punt all game. The offense was our strength, like it or not. That's what you bet on.

watch the play again. He didn't get hit until after the ball was gone.

That's an extremely common ask that any championship coach would ask of his QB. This isn't the 80s or even the 90s anymore. If you want to be called elite, you have to be able to score at will in the redzone.

Ideally you hope more time may come off the clock in the process but when there's a TD open you take it, I mean it gives you a 4 point lead under 2 minutes in the 4th against a tough defense, assuming you'll just get it in is just stupid. 

Edited January 25 by Warcodered

[Matt_In_NH]

4 minutes ago, BuffaloBill said:

From a situational football standpoint it was the wrong call. Too much time on the clock and a harder throw to complete (based on yards and conditions). Love JA to death but he can get too confident sometimes. This is one of them. 
 

keep in mind the d was shown to bee extremely vulnerable so Mahomes had enough time left to score. 
 

with all of that said it a point of conjecture. It does not

matter now.  

Keep in mind the defense you are playing and you are behind, you have to score.  You cannot give up what should be a TD because you want to milk the clock there.  I am sure you may disagree but that is nuts. You score there and you are up by 4, sure KC could win the game with a TD but they need a TD, not an FG.  If the TD is there you take it.  If you need an FG to win then sure, milk the clock.  It is hard to milk the clock on the way to a TD, does that happen, anyone have examples?

[BullBuchanan]

1 minute ago, CincyBillsFan said:

Allen is elite and to suggest otherwise indicates an extreme ignorance of football.

 

Also when playing one of the best defenses in the NFL and needing to score a TD to win the game you take it any time you can with under 2 minutes to play.  The idea that it's easy to both score the TD and use up the last bit of clock is wrong.  Don't forget that the Bills had already executed 15 plays and used up over 6 minutes on that drive. 

 

The fact is that the run play on 1st down forced Allen to go for the TD on 2nd down when it it didn't gain anything.  The idea that a throw to Diggs picks up the first down is not supported by the video evidence.  We likely would have been left with a 3rd and 4 or 5 which while easier to pick up in no way is a gimme.

 

 

 

 

Then throw to Kincaid who was also open for the 1st. Allen is a great player. If you wan to call him elite within the current players of the NFL, I can be on board with that. Mahomes is on a different level with guys like Brady and Manning though. Josh is still far away from that.

2 minutes ago, Warcodered said:

Ideally you hope more time may come off the clock in the process but when there's a TD open you take it, I mean it gives you a 4 point lead under 2 minutes in the 4th against a tough defense, assuming you'll just get it in is just stupid. 

if you don't, you take it to overtime.

[JohnBonhamRocks]

20 minutes ago, BarleyNY said:

Diggs was open earlier though. If Josh had gone to him he’d have gotten the ball off cleanly. I will very rarely complain about a player or coach being aggressive, but Diggs was the right throw for that reason. I like that Allen wants to go for the big throw, but that wasn't the time. 

 

The bleeding the clock argument is valid as it is a legitimate strategy in situations like this. Even if we would’ve had to settle for a FG, it would have been much shorter and there would have been a lot less time on the clock. Or we could’ve won outright with a TD. 

The bolded, but also your entire post, is the strongest I’ve seen the argument presented. Kudos.

Not saying I think JA17 necessarily made the wrong call because I can’t really fault our QB for making a throw he thinks will put us up 4 near the end of a playoff game, but I do think if both options are there then what you described is the sounder strategy.

[Dr. K]

41 minutes ago, Success said:

I am beyond tired of the national hand-wringing about that play.  It was THERE.  I've actually heard fans argue that what Allen SHOULD have done is to just keep picking up small chunks, and then score a TD with just a few seconds left on the clock.

 

As though you can script something like that perfectly.  Then there is a holding penalty, or sack, or turnover, or you just can't get in the endzone.  Allen saw Shakir wide open for 6, and he went for it.  And, as we all know, if Chris Jones gets there a half second later, that's a TD and we're likely up by 4.

 

I'm like, is that the best that you've got, Allen haters?  The guy plays a great game, should have had at least 100 more yards and another TD if his receivers could hang onto the ball - and you're saying "same ol' Allen" because he went for an OPEN TOUCHDOWN.

 

And I hope Mahomes throws 3 picks this week so we can all see the double-standard.  It won't be nearly as analyzed and dissected.

 

Chiefs will lose to the Ravens—as have in every playoff game they have played after beating the Bills. 

[MainEvent]

Sure. But then on the next play 3rd and 9 he had 2 guys underneath for first downs or close to first downs and was looking endzone the whole time. Diggs was the only player near the endzone and was covered the entire time from scrimmage to across the field and back of the endzone. Felt pre determined instead of taking what the def gives you. Yes there was some pressure but I’ve seen Josh get out of much much worse. If in his end he thought hey get a first down here I feel like he would’ve done that. But instead he wanted a TD

[pennstate10]

28 minutes ago, BarleyNY said:

Diggs was open earlier though. If Josh had gone to him he’d have gotten the ball off cleanly. I will very rarely complain about a player or coach being aggressive, but Diggs was the right throw for that reason. I like that Allen wants to go for the big throw, but that wasn't the time. 

 

The bleeding the clock argument is valid as it is a legitimate strategy in situations like this. Even if we would’ve had to settle for a FG, it would have been much shorter and there would have been a lot less time on the clock. Or we could’ve won outright with a TD. 

This is the most useful post in the thread. 
 

it’s not a clear cut right/wrong decision. For instance, the fake punt was the wrong decision for many reasons. 
 

Here, you had a clearer throw to Diggs without 600 lbs of beer in your way. But that wouldn’t have been a td. But it could have led to bleeding the clock. But Diggs had the dropsies. 
 

there were a ton of variables going into the decision, and many unknowns. 
 

I can’t say Josh made the wrong decision. On balance though, I would have liked the higher percentage throw on that play