The WR#2 Market (Spotrac Breakdown and Comparison)

[Aussie Joe]

2 minutes ago, Buffalo_Stampede said:

It’s basically like restructuring Diggs but you don’t have Diggs. A lot could happen. Like I said it depends on Diggs. If Diggs wants to be here then he will be because it benefits the Bills to keep him. But if he doesn’t the Bills can move on and look for his replacement with the $10 million in cap savings. They’d just have to backload the contract.

In the event he is cut … The money lost to cut him gets pushed out over 2 years rather than  1 … if that helps the team then great …

 

I don’t personally think it will happen this off-season unless he himself makes it happen by acting like a brat …

[Buffalo_Stampede]

2 minutes ago, Aussie Joe said:

In the event he is cut … The money lost to cut him gets pushed out over 2 years rather than  1 … if that helps the team then great …

 

I don’t personally think it will happen this off-season unless he himself makes it happen by acting like a brat …

Yes, there’s a lot of dead cap but it’s doable. It’s up to Diggs. 

[dpberr]

The answer is the draft or UFL.  I'd spend zero FA dollars at this position.  

 

WR2 is a young man's game and the fundamental talent you're looking for is route running.  You can find more Khalil Shakirs.  You can hone that talent with professional instruction.  

[BullBuchanan]

2 minutes ago, dpberr said:

The answer is the draft or UFL.  I'd spend zero FA dollars at this position.  

 

WR2 is a young man's game and the fundamental talent you're looking for is route running.  You can find more Khalil Shakirs.  You can hone that talent with professional instruction.  

That's a great strategy as long as your goal is to have a Super Bowl-ready roster 2-4 years from now while that talent you cheaped out on develops or doesn't.

[Mango]

1 hour ago, WhitewalkerInPhilly said:

I don't disagree. My only contention is that I believe Diggs can be a contributing feature for at least the next two years. His route running is still excellent and he can still be dangerous, even if I no longer think he's an elite player so I am not in a hurry to jettison him.

 

Productive and $30M cap hit productive are two very different things. 

[BillsFanForever19]

It's going to have to be a Round 1 WR, hedging our bets hoping for a Benford like situation in Day 3 if our Elam at WR doesn't hit immediately, and then patient and careful spending for a vet.

 

Add in Wild Cards like Justin Shorter, Andy Isabella in Year 2, and K.J. Hamler battling it out for the final spot or two and I think we'll be in a better situation than we were this year.

 

I think it's possible that we get someone in FA that can make a difference. Obviously guys like Higgins, Evans, Pittman, or a trade for Adams are absolute  pipe dreams. That's absolutely not going to happen.

 

But if we're patient and let it play out like we did with Leonard Floyd, I think we can meet in the middle of our cap restraints and someone's unexpectedly low market and/or being stuck after overplaying their hand.

Edited January 24 by BillsFanForever19

[HappyDays]

We are up against it right now. I used Over The Cap's salary table calculator and pulled as many levers as possible. Restructure Allen, cut White (post-6/1 designation), cut Morse, cut Poyer, cut Harty, cut Hines, extend McGovern to lower his cap hit this year. Even after all that we are only $8.8 million under the cap. No way we can restructure Miller or Diggs. Restructuring Dawkins could open up another $6 million... but that is a risk at his age. They could cut Miller with a post-6/1 designation to open up another $6 million, but now you are getting to a point where we don't have a playable roster.

 

Beane screwed himself with some of the bad contracts he gave out over the last few years. It isn't like last offseason where pulling the right levers and approaching free agency the right way would have allowed us to afford Hopkins. Guys like Pittman and Higgins and Evans are off the menu. As it is we will have to pay for replacements for the players we cut just to get our roster in order.

 

So we're entering an offseason where we're likely going to be worse at certain positions, older at others, and no means to significantly improve anywhere. Meanwhile other competitors in the AFC have a bunch of cap space. The outlook is bleak.

 

Truth be told Beane will simply have to nail this draft and we will likely have to rely on rookies to develop quickly. A WR in the 1st round is practically a necessity, and they will have to hit the ground running. Good news is Beane has done really well in the last two drafts. Cook, Bernard, Shakir, Benford, Kincaid, and Torrence all look like high level starters with the ability to become even more. He needs to find probably 3 more in this upcoming draft just to keep pace with the conference, and a WR must be one of them.

[Fan in Chicago]

3 hours ago, BuffaloBill said:

 

 

I am beginning to believe that Diggs may be a one trick pony who is a bit played out.  Various corners have been highly effective in shutting him down.  There remains a question as to whether scheme is an issue in his decline. Whatever the reason, his drop in production has been alarming and problematic.

 

 

Yes, it is troubling but again, the offseason will tell if he was somewhat injured to limit his production. If we really get a stud WR in the draft, the pressure and coverage on Diggs will go down and we will have a more diversified WR group. I still value Diggs for his drive, experience and as a mentor

[BearNorth]

Hindsight is always 20/20.  I think we gave up the draft choice for Jefferson in the Diggs deal.  Who would you rather have now; Jefferson or Diggs.

[beer can shower]

19 minutes ago, BearNorth said:

Hindsight is always 20/20.  I think we gave up the draft choice for Jefferson in the Diggs deal.  Who would you rather have now; Jefferson or Diggs.

On March 20, 2020, the Vikings traded Diggs and their seventh round draft pick to the Buffalo Bills for their first, fifth, and sixth round picks in the 2020 NFL Draft, in addition to a fourth round pick in the 2021 NFL

  Diggs wasn't cheap.

Edited January 24 by beer can shower

[C.Biscuit97]

22 minutes ago, BearNorth said:

Hindsight is always 20/20.  I think we gave up the draft choice for Jefferson in the Diggs deal.  Who would you rather have now; Jefferson or Diggs.

Jefferson is the superior player but Diggs was more established and helped Allen take that leap. It was a win win trade though I’m getting pretty sick of Diggs. 

[harmonkillebrew]

We need a #1.  Diggs is no longer elite.

I'd swing a trade for a guy on a decent contract, but if FA, I'd kick the tires on Ridley, Higgins, Samuel, or Mooney.  

WR in the 1st is also in the cards

[GASabresIUFan]

Here are 4 the top 4 WRs for the Bills other than Diggs since Beane became GM

 

1. 137 catches 1316 yards 11 TDs

2. 106 catches 1560 years 10 TDs

3. 233 catches 2486 yards 11 TDs

4. 167 catches 2730 yards 27 TDs

 

Any guesses?  3 are UFAs and 1 is a draft pick.  

 

Here is how much we paid each player

1. $5,911,443 (Isaiah McKenzie)

2. $18,990,981 (John Brown) 

3. $23,170,797 (Cole Beasley)

4.  $5,774,690 (Gabe Davis - 4th rd pick)

 

For a cap-strapped team, what should the plan be, go after another UFA or use a high draft pick (which we have never done since Beane has been the GM) to get a real upgrade in talent at the WR position?  To me the answer is obvious.  Enough with FAs.  We have already invested enough in the fading Diggs.   Time to build a good receiving corps in the draft.  This is something long overdue.  

Edited January 25 by GASabresIUFan

[Aussie Joe]

3 hours ago, HappyDays said:

We are up against it right now. I used Over The Cap's salary table calculator and pulled as many levers as possible. Restructure Allen, cut White (post-6/1 designation), cut Morse, cut Poyer, cut Harty, cut Hines, extend McGovern to lower his cap hit this year. Even after all that we are only $8.8 million under the cap. No way we can restructure Miller or Diggs. Restructuring Dawkins could open up another $6 million... but that is a risk at his age. They could cut Miller with a post-6/1 designation to open up another $6 million, but now you are getting to a point where we don't have a playable roster.

 

Beane screwed himself with some of the bad contracts he gave out over the last few years. It isn't like last offseason where pulling the right levers and approaching free agency the right way would have allowed us to afford Hopkins. Guys like Pittman and Higgins and Evans are off the menu. As it is we will have to pay for replacements for the players we cut just to get our roster in order.

 

So we're entering an offseason where we're likely going to be worse at certain positions, older at others, and no means to significantly improve anywhere. Meanwhile other competitors in the AFC have a bunch of cap space. The outlook is bleak.

 

Truth be told Beane will simply have to nail this draft and we will likely have to rely on rookies to develop quickly. A WR in the 1st round is practically a necessity, and they will have to hit the ground running. Good news is Beane has done really well in the last two drafts. Cook, Bernard, Shakir, Benford, Kincaid, and Torrence all look like high level starters with the ability to become even more. He needs to find probably 3 more in this upcoming draft just to keep pace with the conference, and a WR must be one of them.

Other moves they could make …

 

Extend Douglas and Johnson… I would roll the dice on extending Dawkins who just had his best year .. but not McGovern … want to see more than 1 year …

So that makes it around $20m now? A big name WR is a pipe dream in FA …could still sign a mid tier guy like Mooney ..

I don’t necessarily think the outlook is “bleak” provided they can upgrade the WR room ( which was ordinary in 2023..)… So this does include getting a contributor in the draft ..so go in on Round 1

 

Do this and with a good OL in place, Cook ,Shakir  Kincaid and McDermott  making it work on the  D… there is a path 

 

 

Edited January 25 by Aussie Joe

[WhitewalkerInPhilly]

3 hours ago, HappyDays said:

We are up against it right now. I used Over The Cap's salary table calculator and pulled as many levers as possible. Restructure Allen, cut White (post-6/1 designation), cut Morse, cut Poyer, cut Harty, cut Hines, extend McGovern to lower his cap hit this year. Even after all that we are only $8.8 million under the cap. No way we can restructure Miller or Diggs. Restructuring Dawkins could open up another $6 million... but that is a risk at his age. They could cut Miller with a post-6/1 designation to open up another $6 million, but now you are getting to a point where we don't have a playable roster.

 

Beane screwed himself with some of the bad contracts he gave out over the last few years. It isn't like last offseason where pulling the right levers and approaching free agency the right way would have allowed us to afford Hopkins. Guys like Pittman and Higgins and Evans are off the menu. As it is we will have to pay for replacements for the players we cut just to get our roster in order.

 

So we're entering an offseason where we're likely going to be worse at certain positions, older at others, and no means to significantly improve anywhere. Meanwhile other competitors in the AFC have a bunch of cap space. The outlook is bleak.

 

Truth be told Beane will simply have to nail this draft and we will likely have to rely on rookies to develop quickly. A WR in the 1st round is practically a necessity, and they will have to hit the ground running. Good news is Beane has done really well in the last two drafts. Cook, Bernard, Shakir, Benford, Kincaid, and Torrence all look like high level starters with the ability to become even more. He needs to find probably 3 more in this upcoming draft just to keep pace with the conference, and a WR must be one of them.

Why can't we restructure Diggs?

 

That a sunset of fans don't want to is not the same as can't.

 

Miller I'll say you avoid because you have no idea about a potential suspension incoming but we can get two more years of productive play out of Diggs

[Freddie's Dead]

We need to stop ***** around.  Get Tyler Boyd and draft the best WR left in the first round.  Diggs isn't going anywhere next year, so let's do something different for a change, instead of wasting more draft picks on D.

[Comebackkid]

6 hours ago, DrDawkinstein said:

Bob Woods has a $9.75M cap hit and only $4.75M in dead money. If the Texans move on, could we bring him back cheap?

at this point isnt woods a lesser shakir?   i dont see the point.   

[GETTOTHE50]

trade diggs to dallas and use that cap for higgins. draft a wideout in the first round

[DrDawkinstein]

1 minute ago, Comebackkid said:

at this point isnt woods a lesser shakir?   i dont see the point.   

 

Depth with reliable hands. I have to imagine he catches 1 of those Sherfield drops. 🤷‍♂️

 

Depending how cheap we can get him.

[MrEpsYtown]

So who is really a number 1 receiver these days? Like a true, true 1?
 

Jefferson

Lamb

Chase

Hill

St. Brown

 

Like what are guys like Adams, AJ Brown, DJ Moore, Devonta Smith, Nacua, Nico Collins, Mike Evans, Deebo, Aiyuk etc. Diggs? 
 

And I am being honest here. The call for a 1 or 2 receiver I get it, but where’s the line? Because true #1s to me are pretty few and far between. 

[AlCowlingsTaxiService]

Idk … my concern is that we have a perfectly viable WR2 in Diggs, which means we lack a true WR1. I hope to be proven wrong. 

[Comebackkid]

14 minutes ago, DrDawkinstein said:

 

Depth with reliable hands. I have to imagine he catches 1 of those Sherfield drops. 🤷‍♂️

 

Depending how cheap we can get him.

he might have.   not the one that became dislodged when he hit the ground.   unless he can run faster than sherfield, which i doubt.   

[Mister Defense]

8 hours ago, WhitewalkerInPhilly said:

I share the opinion that I have seen in many places on this board: that WR #2 is a major weakness going into the offseason. I am also part of the group that believes that the Bills should spend draft resources to address the problem for one reason: WR #2 gets stupid money in free agency. Stupid money.

 

But there is always a case to be made for best pick available. Having something in the pipeline in case we roll box cars in the draft, or we take a guy with high upside but we want to ease in. So, here is a quick list at notable receivers that Spotrac has considered notable for the free agent class. I have exluded known slot receivers (We have Shakir and he's doing just fine)

 

For comparisons sake, let's start with a known quality. Gabe Davis. I believe that Gabe Davis was a very solid #3/4 option, but was badly inconsistent as a #2. According to Spotrac, he is expected to make an average of $13.6 M per year. That would be pricey for the Bills in 2024 and we would want an upgrade.

 

So...here is the class

 

 

Most likely out of our price range

Mike Evans

OBJ

Tyler Boyd

Tee Higgins

Michael Pittman Jr.

Calvin Ridley

 

I put these out here not because I think they are fits, but because this is what the top end of the market will be getting. Now, if any one of those is not snapped up on Day 1 you absolutely make a call, but he is a more likely list of what will be waiting around on Day 2

 

Curtis Samuel

Nelson Aghalor

Josh Reynolds

Randall Cobb

Darnell Mooney

 

So, any interest or are we all in on the draft?

 

 

 

No thanks to the ones in bold.  Every time I watched Evans this year he was dropping balls and such. Last thing this team needs is a one year, aging, inconsistent #@--rather have Davis back.

 

Higgins seems to be a media darling but had an off year. Injury riddled year, maybe, but no thanks.

 

Two in the draft and the best free agent available, a guy with a very high percentage catch rate--which of these has that?

 

Randall Cobb! Yikes on that.

 

 

 

[WhitewalkerInPhilly]

31 minutes ago, Mister Defense said:

 

No thanks to the ones in bold.  Every time I watched Evans this year he was dropping balls and such. Last thing this team needs is a one year, aging, inconsistent #@--rather have Davis back.

 

Higgins seems to be a media darling but had an off year. Injury riddled year, maybe, but no thanks.

 

Two in the draft and the best free agent available, a guy with a very high percentage catch rate--which of these has that?

 

Randall Cobb! Yikes on that.

 

 

 

It was more to illustrate the price range. 1st round WR plz

[Goin Breakdown]

After all the DHop hype last year, I just can't get my hopes up for any one player like that again. 

[Ralonzo]

9 hours ago, 4BillsintheBurgh said:

I'd take a shot on DJ Chark and draft a wr fourth round and after. Do folks realize we've spent two 1st's on pass catchers already?

 

Now if they move on from Diggs it's a different story. But with Kincaid and Shakir emerging, someone like Chark who is just an outside guy is missing from the offense. I'd rather get an interior lineman with some versatility at 28 than a wr. It's probably going to be a dl though, maybe that safety from Iowa.

 

No to the last bit, the Bills have their center and versatile backup on the roster already. There's better places to spend that asset.

[MiracleAtRich1393]

9 hours ago, SCBills said:

Double up in the Draft for me.

 

Diggs is still here and Shakir will be in Year 3 / Kincaid Year 2.

 

We can afford to go young at WR behind them.

 

Not much appetite for tier 2/3 WR's in Free Agency. 

Triple dip WR no question this year. Do what KC did with CBs the year we drafted Kaiir & Benford except at WR. And higher picks than they spent. Two by the end of day 2 for sure. Malpractice not to IMHO of course 

[paulmm3]

We won't be too active in the low end FA WR market this year, especially after the not great signing of Sherfield. We're stuck with Diggs for contract reasons. I expect us to draft two WR before round 5 and ideally both can help next year

[JoshAllin]

Find a Nacua in the draft

[Big Blitz]

Draft 2.  Don’t care where.  
 

And Trade candidates using draft picks or roster players I’d explore:

 

 

DK Metcalf 

One of the Packers kids - Watson
McClaurin or Dotson 

Jameson Williams 

Hollywood Brown 

Courtland Sutton 

Drake London 

 

Players I’d package to get a WR along the lines of the guys above that might make sense:

 

Elam OR….Benford.  This team just develops CBs.  If we can draft one to replace Benford and it gets us Drake London - yes I’m doing that.  Also, I’m a bit concerned Benford is injury prone. Would much rather ship Elam - but I’m not sure he has any value.  
 

Rousseau.  We signing him?  Entering year 4.  What do we got here?  Washington needs DEs.  Maybe we can get Dotson - who I love and would be a better version of Smoke.  
 

James Cook.  Yep.  Peak value might be right now.  What if Washington wants to pair him with Robinson or the Packers to pair with Aaron Jones.  2 more seasons then he’s gone via free agency anyway.  Don’t get too attached.  
 

 

Just spit balling ideas not saying I would or want to trade those guys.  I just think they’re realistic trade pieces for a football trade or maybe a package to move up in the draft and get more picks.  

Edited January 25 by Big Blitz

[TBBills Fan]

Beanie you.missed on D Hop.  Go big for WR and get tier 1.  Figure out a way to do it.  

[MrEpsYtown]

41 minutes ago, Big Blitz said:

Draft 2.  Don’t care where.  
 

And Trade candidates using draft picks or roster players I’d explore:

 

 

DK Metcalf 

One of the Packers kids - Watson
McClaurin or Dotson 

Jameson Williams 

Hollywood Brown 

Courtland Sutton 

Drake London 

 

Players I’d package to get a WR along the lines of the guys above that might make sense:

 

Elam OR….Benford.  This team just develops CBs.  If we can draft one to replace Benford and it gets us Drake London - yes I’m doing that.  Also, I’m a bit concerned Benford is injury prone. Would much rather ship Elam - but I’m not sure he has any value.  
 

Rousseau.  We signing him?  Entering year 4.  What do we got here?  Washington needs DEs.  Maybe we can get Dotson - who I love and would be a better version of Smoke.  
 

James Cook.  Yep.  Peak value might be right now.  What if Washington wants to pair him with Robinson or the Packers to pair with Aaron Jones.  2 more seasons then he’s gone via free agency anyway.  Don’t get too attached.  
 

 

Just spit balling ideas not saying I would or want to trade those guys.  I just think they’re realistic trade pieces for a football trade or maybe a package to move up in the draft and get more picks.  

I’d add Brandon Aiyuk to the trade list. He is set to play on the 14 million 5th year option. Nots sure they will move him, but you can’t pay everyone and they are going to have to allocate some money to the defense. 

[Big Turk]

Troy Franklin please please please...

 

6'3" WR that runs a 4.35 40...immediately gives us what we lost when John Brown left and we have never replaced it.

[dgrochester55]

Ridley would be great, but is out of our price range.   I think that Mooney would be a nice under the radar low cost pickup.   He showed flashes with Chicago and could be good with a QB like Allen.  I would love to see a couple of draft picks thrown into the mix as well.

 

As far as what we have now, we have Diggs next year for better or worse.  Hopefully he can rebound or if he has lost a step still be a decent #2 option.  Shakir has promise and there is a place for him on the team, but there is no guarantee that this continues is he is elevated to #1 or #2.  Remember how great Gabe Davis  looked until he was given a larger role?

 

Everyone else is expendable to me.   We should move on from Davis, Sherfield and Harty.  Shorter has potential, but should be seen as a sure thing.

 

However you slice it, WR is the one position on a suddenly deep overall team that needs a lot of help in the off season.