Bills Draft Rd 1 - Pick 28

[L Ron Burgundy]

4 hours ago, UKBillFan said:

Trade down for a couple more round two picks.

Unfortunately this is probably needed. We need a small rebuild.  Our defense is bad.  Idc about regular season stats one bit.  They suck when it matters.

[Monty98]

10 minutes ago, gonzo1105 said:

James Williams can’t cover as a safety in college and is known as a big hitter but fails to wrap on tackles by lowering his shoulder too much. Guys like him are dinosaurs in the NFL today . Also throw in the character issues he has and you have a guy I wouldn’t take until round 5.  Williams gets his love from his HS ranking and being a 5 star out of HS. Kitchens covered a lot of his flaws up imo

I'm intrigued to know what his "character issues"are as I've been following him since he arrived at UM. Williams flashes his zone coverage on plays but under Diaz he was utilized as a head hunter. Under Cristobal he was hurt his first year with a torn labrum and that whole defense was terrible under that DC (name is escaping me), this year under Guidry he was utilized best with his skill set as he was used as a blitzer and cover guy. He had probably his best year this year and you could see the improvement as the season went on. He's an energy guy and he's constantly looking to make a play or big hit to get the team or crowd into it.

[schoolhouserock]

1 hour ago, The Jokeman said:

This is a heavy draft on WRs, trading up feels foolish see Sammy Watkins 2.0 Toss in think we need as many picks as possible with so many pending UFAs will have a lot of holes to fill. Depending how UFA turns out I'd think a guy like Troy Franklin could be there for picking at number 28 and fits our need for speed. 

I don’t disagree. I think it is Beane’s MO to jump up a few spots for the player(s) his team has identified. 
 

A LOT of WRs will be drafted in round 1 this year. Even though it is deep, it may still be required to jump up.

1 hour ago, DrDawkinstein said:

 

This draft is too deep at WR, and we have too many other needs, to make a double WR pick in the 2nd.

 

It would be a re-do of the Boogie Basham mistake all over again.

 

Plus, there arent that many balls to go around to justify that value of taking our 5th receiving option in the 2nd round.

 

We should be able to take a WR in the 1st and another in the 4th-6th and still score some top talent while plugging our other holes with guys who can contribute right away as well.

One thought about this: We need to consider the possibility of Diggs being over the hill. That’s a LOT of targets up for grabs.

[Capco]

1 hour ago, The Jokeman said:

Depending how UFA turns out I'd think a guy like Troy Franklin could be there for picking at number 28 and fits our need for speed. 

Reading your mention of UFA reminds me of RFA.

Are there any RFA WRs worth the 28th (and possibly the 94th?) pick(s) that we could offer a contract to that another team couldn't match?  It could be a clever way to turn a late 1st into something less risky and proven, but idk if there's anyone worth it.

[schoolhouserock]

54 minutes ago, BuffaloBill said:

For everyone wanting a WR - statistics say round # 1 picks are a coin flip relative to productivity in year #1.  

Can you back this up with data? My hypothesis is that early round receivers are producing more and are doing it more quickly than in years past.

[BuffaloBill]

4 minutes ago, schoolhouserock said:

Can you back this up with data? My hypothesis is that early round receivers are producing more and are doing it more quickly than in years past.

 

% OF WR HIT BENCHMARKS AT LEAST ONCE IN THEIR CAREERS

 

Draft Range No 1,000-yd seasons one 1,000-yd season 2+ 1,000-yd seasons 3+ 1,000-yd seasons 8-TD season 16-TD season

1st rd pick 51% 19% 30% 23% 52% 16%

Top-10 pick 50% 18% 32% 29% 57% 18%

So, only 49% of first-round wide receivers have had a 1,000-yd season. On top of that, only 30% have had 2 or more. It’s not exactly like I qualify a two-time thousand-yarder as a superstar. That’s a pretty low bar for what is supposed to be elite talent. There are just so many misses that it’s hard to consider anything here as set in stone. Here’s another way to put it: there have been 15 drafts since 2000 with multiple wide receivers taken in the first round. Only twice have all the first-round receivers hit 1,000 yards at some point in their career. In twelve of those years, multiple receivers failed that test. 

 

[DrDawkinstein]

4 minutes ago, schoolhouserock said:

Can you back this up with data? My hypothesis is that early round receivers are producing more and are doing it more quickly than in years past.

 

Look up the drafts on Wikipedia and see the WRs selected recently in rounds 1 and 2.

 

If a WR is taken top 10 (certainly top 5) then they usually produce well right away. But once you get into that #15-#50 range, it's far more hit or miss (with a lot of misses).

 

For every star WR you remember, there are a couple picked right after him that are like "oh yeah, who is that guy again?"

 

 

 

 

Edited January 22 by DrDawkinstein

[BCAS Baritone]

I'd love the Bills to take a WR in round 1, but don't know the college players myself so wouldn't hazard a guess on who we should or shouldn't take.  If a WR is there that we have ranked at least in top 35 overall I'd have to consider him, but don't want to reach, especially if a guy we have ranked in top 20 fell to us even if at a different position.

 

Here is Bucky Brooks mock draft - he has us taking Cooper DeJean at 28 (DB from Iowa)

https://www.nfl.com/news/bucky-brooks-2024-nfl-mock-draft-1-0

 

Here are the pass catchers he mocks in the first round

4 - WR Marvin Harrison Jr to Arizona

5 - TE Brock Bowers to LA Chargers

6 - WR Rome Odunze to NY Giants

15 - WR Malik Nabers to Indianapolis

18 - WR Brian Thomas Jr to Concinnati

26 - WR Keon Coleman to Tampa Bay

 

Edited January 22 by BCAS Baritone

[BuffaloBill]

Just now, BuffaloBill said:

 

% OF WR HIT BENCHMARKS AT LEAST ONCE IN THEIR CAREERS (starts with 2002 draft)

 

Draft Range No 1,000-yd seasons one 1,000-yd season 2+ 1,000-yd seasons 3+ 1,000-yd seasons 8-TD season 16-TD season

1st rd pick 51% 19% 30% 23% 52% 16%

Top-10 pick 50% 18% 32% 29% 57% 18%

So, only 49% of first-round wide receivers have had a 1,000-yd season. On top of that, only 30% have had 2 or more. It’s not exactly like I qualify a two-time thousand-yarder as a superstar. That’s a pretty low bar for what is supposed to be elite talent. There are just so many misses that it’s hard to consider anything here as set in stone. Here’s another way to put it: there have been 15 drafts since 2000 with multiple wide receivers taken in the first round. Only twice have all the first-round receivers hit 1,000 yards at some point in their career. In twelve of those years, multiple receivers failed that test. 

 

 

For some set of reasons it is hard to translate college success to NFL success at the WR position.  If in round one only 30% have two + 1,000 yard seasons it does not look like a good gamble.  

[DrDawkinstein]

3 minutes ago, BCAS Baritone said:

I'd love the Bills to take a WR in round 1, but don't know the college players myself so wouldn't hazard a guess on who we should or shouldn't take.  If a WR is there that we have ranked at least in top 35 overall I'd have to consider him, but don't want to reach, especially if a guy we have ranked in top 20 fell to us even if at a different position.

 

Here is Bucky Brooks mock draft - he has us taking Cooper DeJean at 28 (DB from Iowa)

https://www.nfl.com/news/bucky-brooks-2024-nfl-mock-draft-1-0

 

Here are the pass catchers he mocks in the first round

4 - WR Marvin Harrison Jr to Arizona

5 - TE Brock Bowers to LA Chargers

6 - WR Rome Odunze to NY Giants

15 - WR Malik Nabers to Indianapolis

18 - WR Brian Thomas Jr to Concinnati

26 - WR Keon Coleman to Tampa Bay

 

 

If all of those WRs go before our pick, and Cooper DeJean is sitting there, then DeJean is absolutely our best pick. And I dont want a DB in the 1st. But reality is reality.

 

Go DeJean and then WRs in the 2nd and 4th.

[Solomon Grundy]

4 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

Xavier Legette, Wide Receiver, South Carolina

 

 

But I'd definitely live with this outcome too. 

You know how I ❤❤Xavier Legette, but after watching that game last night and seeing Dodson getting abused in the run game time after time I think I'm going to rethink this pick and maybe go with Edgerrin Cooper. I know we'll be getting Bernard/Milano back, but if another injury happens to ANY ONE of them two I DO NOT want to see Dodson replace them. This is a very deep receiving class and Moose Muhammed has raised a lot of interest in me. The guy doesn't seem to drop many passes and has NFL pedigree

[BUFFALOTONE]

Trade up and take Harrison...both beane and Mcd are out of a job next year if they dont win the super bowl. Might as well go down in flames. 

[frostbitmic]

They went Offense in the first round last year, so I'm guessing a DE/Edge.

[Warcodered]

6 hours ago, damj said:

Not a WR

Beane watched that game and the ball bouncing off the hands of those WRs on those deep shots. Not a chance in hell he isn't addressing this.

[Chicken Boo]

6 hours ago, iccrewman112 said:

Troy Franklin - WR from Oregon is where my mind goes currently. I think there is a  strong chance he is there at 28. 

 

That's my guy all the way.  

 

I will be posting this link frequently leading up to the draft

 

 

 

Franklin can work the entire field.  Here is your eventual Diggs replacement.  

 

 

Edited January 22 by Chicken Boo

[BillsFan2313]

Trade up for Odunze. Even if it takes giving up next years first. Josh Allen needs help right now and the 2025 cap is in way better position. 

 

 

Edit: The reason I say Odunze and not Harrison or Nabers is because they are both gone top 10, which will be difficult to get into. 

Edited January 22 by BillsFan2313

[Chicken Boo]

2 hours ago, Goin Breakdown said:

It's going to be a safety

 

If Cooper DeJean is there, McDermott will sprint to the podium.

[Warcodered]

6 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

Xavier Legette, Wide Receiver, South Carolina

 

 

But I'd definitely live with this outcome too. 

I like his number. Also damn he looks good and plays physical.

[BillsFan130]

6 hours ago, Teddy KGB said:

Pick 28 and Dawson Knox for pick 26 

If we include Knox in the trade, that may bump us down to the 2nd round..

[starrymessenger]

7 hours ago, iccrewman112 said:

Troy Franklin - WR from Oregon is where my mind goes currently. I think there is a  strong chance he is there at 28. 

Yes he may be there at 28. Thing is he would be a rook and therefore in need of development. I would add 2 WRs to the starting lineup but I'd like to get a vet as well as a rook. Darnell Mooney is an UFA. Ran a 4.38. Gets separation all day. Had a down 2023 with nagging injury and an offence that really couldn't make the best of his talent in the passing game. Sure give me Tee Higgins but I don't think we have the space for that. Mooney is a comparable type receiver to Franklin and you can probably sign him to an incentive laden affordable deal. Hes 26 yrs old. Then I'd draft another in the first. The top five guys are likely gone by 28 but you might have a shot at Xavier Leggett, maybe even with a small move up the board. If he's there I'd run to the podium. 

1 hour ago, BUFFALOTONE said:

Trade up and take Harrison...both beane and Mcd are out of a job next year if they dont win the super bowl. Might as well go down in flames. 

You'd prolly have to do a Mike Ditke/Ricky Williams to get him.

Edited January 22 by starrymessenger

[Warcodered]

21 minutes ago, Chicken Boo said:

 

That's my guy all the way.  

 

I will be posting this link frequently leading up to the draft

 

 

 

Franklin can work the entire field.  Here is your eventual Diggs replacement.  

 

 

I'm not a guy that does any of this stuff but I looked at highlights of him and Leggette and does Franklin maybe body catch balls a bit?

[starrymessenger]

6 hours ago, D. L. Hot-Flamethrower said:

One of those really top receivers like Harrison, Nabers etc. Trades need to be considered (including those 10 picks). As long as we get a young safety somewhere, I think we need to do what needs to be done to add playmakers.

Nabors is the second best receiver in this WR heavy draft. He will be long gone and probably well out of trade up range.

[Augie]

7 hours ago, UKBillFan said:

Trade down for a couple more round two picks.

 

It all depends upon how the draft falls, of course, but we need to get younger and cheaper. More draft picks is the best way to accomplish that. All you have to do is nail all the picks!  Easy Peasy.

 

Having said that, if a stud falls we happily take him. Next year has me wondering what it will look like. 

 

EDIT: This beats the hell out of doing this in October!  😋

 

 

. 

Edited January 22 by Augie

[iccrewman112]

48 minutes ago, Chicken Boo said:

 

That's my guy all the way.  

 

I will be posting this link frequently leading up to the draft

 

 

 

Franklin can work the entire field.  Here is your eventual Diggs replacement.  

 

 

complete route tree!

[Mark Vader]

7 hours ago, boyst said:

All in for MHJ

Dream on

[peterpan]

Are there any Mike evans / dk metcalf / justin Jefferson types?

 

that’s the mold we need

[OZBILLS]

Draft WRs late.

 

Get someone on D that will break down when we need them

[Chicken Boo]

53 minutes ago, Warcodered said:

I'm not a guy that does any of this stuff but I looked at highlights of him and Leggette and does Franklin maybe body catch balls a bit?

 

I'm strictly against body catchers.  

 

In the video I posted, you can see he's a natural hands catcher, but obviously every catch can't be a hands catch.

 

Franklin gives me Chad Johnson vibes.  

 

Leggette doesn't seem to be that polished of a route runner.  

Edited January 22 by Chicken Boo

[whorlnut]

4 hours ago, Monty98 said:

Give me Kam Kinchens from Miami. One of the better safety's out there and we have to replace two. He's a ball hawk, isn't super proficient in the run game, but he's was a do it all safety for Miami 2 years ago, this year he missed some time with an injury but was their best player on the back 7. They have two high caliber safeties coming out but James Williams is a Strong Safety whereas Kam is the FS. 

Will he be there in the third?

[DCOrange]

18 minutes ago, peterpan said:

Are there any Mike evans / dk metcalf / justin Jefferson types?

 

that’s the mold we need

I don't think any of those guys are really similar to one another.

 

In terms of the tall, physical WR mold like Evans, you could maybe look to Keon Coleman or Adonai Mitchell. However, they both rank near the bottom of the draft class in terms of yards per route run and aren't particularly good in terms of contested catch rate. Mitchell moves fairly well for his size but his targets per route run suggest he probably doesn't get open as well as most. Coleman on the other hand gets a pretty good number of targets but they're mostly contested opportunities which is a pretty big red flag against college competition.

 

In terms of the size/speed freaks like DK, you're probably looking at Brian Thomas Jr. and Xavier Legette. But unlike DK Metcalf, who was one of the best prospects to come around in a long time in terms of beating press coverage, that's something that Xavier Legette really struggles with.  Thomas has the size (6'4"), speed, and press beating skills to at least kinda earn that sort of competition, but he body catches pretty much everything.

 

Not really sure anyone particularly compares to Jefferson aside from maybe one of the guys that are out of our reach.

 

[KOKBILLS]

8 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

Xavier Legette, Wide Receiver, South Carolina

 

 

But I'd definitely live with this outcome too. 

 

Yep... That's my dude this year...

 

Unfortunately...as the process plays out...I doubt he'll last till #28... Especially if he runs in the 4.3's... 

[whorlnut]

3 hours ago, TFBillsfan said:

One thing to watch is Beane better not go to sleep as the draft pick gets close. KC will be looking for the same type of player so if your WR is there, go get him. Don’t get blindsided like they did with McDuffie.

 

WR has to be the pick barring something unexpected.

I thought this same exact thing this morning. KC will be behind us again  and needing the same thing we need. I expect Beane to move up for a WR for this reason. Can’t sit and hope our guy falls to us just to see KC pass us and get that guy. 

[Juice_32]

Trade up for Malik Nabers, whatever it takes. He’s going to be a monster. 

[DCOrange]

4 minutes ago, KOKBILLS said:

 

Yep... That's my dude this year...

 

Unfortunately...as the process plays out...I doubt he'll last till #28... Especially if he runs in the 4.3's... 

FWIW, Dane Brugler from The Athletic just released his first two-round mock of the year based on what's hearing around the league and he does not have Legette going in the first two rounds. Seems like a lot of people have been turned off from him recently. Obviously plenty of time for that to change though.

[GunnerBill]

8 minutes ago, KOKBILLS said:

 

Yep... That's my dude this year...

 

Unfortunately...as the process plays out...I doubt he'll last till #28... Especially if he runs in the 4.3's... 

 

Yea it is a risk. I figure being an older prospect and one year of production and a strong class might push him down just a touch. I think he is in competition with Brian Thomas and Troy Franklin who are both going to run really fast too and are vertical outside receivers... so there is a chance the top 3 go and then the other two go first. Put it this way.... he should get into range to get him even if they have to be aggressive.

[NeverOutNick]

8 hours ago, iccrewman112 said:

Troy Franklin - WR from Oregon is where my mind goes currently. I think there is a  strong chance he is there at 28. 

I do like him a lot but man if there is any way to trade up a little and get Odunze I’d be ecstatic 

[GunnerBill]

Just now, NeverOutNick said:

I do like him a lot but man if there is any way to trade up a little and get Odunze I’d be ecstatic 

 

I think you'd have to go massive to get any of the top 3... MHJ, Nabers, Odunze. I am not giving away all my mock v1.0 secrets (you have a week or so to wait) but I agree with DJ's v1.0 the other day. I see it being 3 QBs then 3 WRs in the first 6 picks. Don't have the order exactly the same but that is the way the first 6 looks like shaking out to me without trades.

[NeverOutNick]

Just now, GunnerBill said:

 

I think you'd have to go massive to get any of the top 3... MHJ, Nabers, Odunze. I am not giving away all my mock v1.0 secrets (you have a week or so to wait) but I agree with DJ's v1.0 the other day. I see it being 3 QBs then 3 WRs in the first 6 picks. Don't have the order exactly the same but that is the way the first 6 looks like shaking out to me without trades.

Agreed you can’t trade all the way up to top 10 but there is a way he falls to the teens or lower. A lot of teams need OT help. And honestly I see at least 4 QBs going in the top 10. Don’t forget Bowers will get snagged early. It’s unlikely but if he falls to the teens I’d be willing to move up and snag him if it only took our 2nd rounder. Hes that good

 

But If we can’t get a bona fide stud day 1 super star then I’m fine grabbing a couple WRs in this draft because it is very deep at the position 

[Green Lightning]

8 hours ago, billieve420 said:

I am moving up if the right WR is available in the general area where we are going to pick. I would also consider Safety if we stand pat and we don't like any of the WRs in that spot.

The next Sammy Watkins?

[BananaB]

They going D as usual