Bills receivers are not getting open, but Allen finds them when they do

[GunnerBill]

2 hours ago, Einstein said:

 

Allen is 8th in the NFL (according to PFF) under pressure this year.

 

And over the last month the worst in the NFL when not under pressure.

[Scott7975]

4 hours ago, Einstein said:

Allen finds receivers when they get open, at a pace higher than any other QB in the NFL. The problem is that they simply aren’t getting open! 

 

@Maine-iac and I were debating this a few days ago. I have been shouting from the roof tops that Bills receiving options do not gain much separation. The argument I get back is simply “Yes they do! Allen just isn’t throwing to the guys that are open”.

 

Here is a chart, plotted through Week 17, that shows Allen has the highest % of throws to open receivers, despite his receiving options being 27th in the NFL in separation (in totality of all QB’s plotted).

 

 

Also, notice how open Lamar’s receivers are…

 

z

 

Yeah, I posted the same thing in the MVP thread and was told that it doesn't mean what I think it does.  Yes it does mean that.

[BigDingus]

3 hours ago, julian said:

I just see lots of fans crying because Allen isn’t lighting up stat sheet, since Brady took over the Bills have become the most run heavy team in the league and cut down significantly on turnovers, and are 5-1 over that stretch.

 

 Coincidence ? Probably not.

 

Not a coincidence, but Allen's passing hasn't really been much different between Dorsey & Brady.

 

With Dorsey, Josh averaged 35 attempts, 1.9 passing TDs vs 1.1 INTs per game 

With Brady, Josh averages 32 attempts, 1.3 passing TDs vs 0.8 INTs per game. 

 

If you want to remove the 1 outlier game for both Dorsey & Brady (Josh's 3 INT Jets game and his 7 for 15 attempts against the Cowboys), it's even closer:

 

Dorsey - 34 attempts, 2 TDs v 0.9 INTs per game

Brady - 35 attempts, 1.4 TDs v 1 INT per game

 

Overall, we're 2-4 when Josh has 40+ attempts this year, but even under Brady we're still passing quite a lot. If Josh isn't finding his receivers (or they're dropping passes), Brady needs to find a way to get the run game going more effectively. 

 

The more you have Allen pass, the more likely he's going to force the issue to try & makeup for past failures... ultimately leading to even worse outcomes.

 

[Scott7975]

3 hours ago, Einstein said:

 

I had just listened to that. Cossel said he leaves the pocket prematurely sometimes, but he also said if you want to take that away from him, you’re going to be taking away some of the big jaw-dropping plays he does as well. So you have to find that balance. Because staying in the pocket a half second longer, may mean you HAVE to throw from that pocket, as the escape lanes may be gone after you wait.

 

As the game goes on QBs get a count in their head.  When that count is up its time to move or get rid of the ball.

[Simon]

1 minute ago, BigDingus said:

Overall, we're 2-4 when Josh has 40+ attempts this year, but even under Brady we're still passing quite a lot.

 

I wouldn't be at all surprised if the Bills have the highest run to pass ratio in the NFL since Brady took over.

[balln]

2 hours ago, Einstein said:

 

For those who don’t care to watch (probably a good idea), this is one of the first plays they use to demonstrate that Allen missed open receivers. Allen has three defenders in his face and he is blamed for not hitting Diggs. This is an INT waiting to happen as that defensive back has a great opportunity to jump the pass from his position. This is the quality of analysis.

 

 

PS, yes, there were a few missed receivers in this game, but context always matters (pressure, where Allen is within his reads and progressions, etc).

Look at Gabe lol. Waste 

2 hours ago, Einstein said:

 

The video reviewer actually says something along the lines of “on second thought, this is a good play by the Patriots. It’s a tough minus (for Allen)”.  Even he admits it’s horse crap to blame Allen for it, but he doesn’t remove it from the film…

 

 

Another from the video. Josh didn’t hit Diggs 25 yards down field, on the run, with two defenders about to pummel him. It was a scramble drill and THIS was used as an example of Allen missing an open guy. The analysis in the video was a joke.

 

 

I get that i’m an Allen homer but my goodness some of the stuff he is getting blamed for is wild.

Kincaid is wide the freak open. Come on. Doesn’t need to go to diggs way deep

[Simon]

6 minutes ago, balln said:

Kincaid is wide the freak open. Come on. Doesn’t need to go to diggs way deep

 

Judging whether guys are open from still photographs after the QB has already thrown the ball is an exercise in futility.

[balln]

4 minutes ago, Simon said:

 

Judging whether guys are open from still photographs after the QB has already thrown the ball is an exercise in futility.

Theres no judgement there. Objectively. Wide open. 7 yards in every direction. 

[Mango]

4 hours ago, Einstein said:

Allen finds receivers when they get open, at a pace higher than any other QB in the NFL. The problem is that they simply aren’t getting open! 

 

@Maine-iac and I were debating this a few days ago. I have been shouting from the roof tops that Bills receiving options do not gain much separation. The argument I get back is simply “Yes they do! Allen just isn’t throwing to the guys that are open”.

 

Here is a chart, plotted through Week 17, that shows Allen has the highest % of throws to open receivers, despite his receiving options being 27th in the NFL in separation (in totality of all QB’s plotted).

 

 

Also, notice how open Lamar’s receivers are…

 

z

 

What is interesting here is the wild disparities in "separation" on teams who have started multiple QB's. Browning vs Burrow being one of them. That is a great corp and somehow under Browning the separation is a full standard deviation less than it was with Burrow? 

The biggest thing I am taking from this is that WR separation has a lot of variables and not the black and white stat that a lot of posters seem to sell it as. 

[Simon]

1 minute ago, balln said:

Theres no judgement there. Objectively. Wide open. 7 yards in every direction. 

 

You have no idea who was moving where when Josh made the decision, no idea whether or not he was open at that point and you'll never know from a picture like that.

Your opinion is 100% subjective.

 

[Mango]

The issue with Josh a lot of the time is attempting the pass he could make vs. the pass he should make. 

When he scrambles and/or he's hot there isn't a better QB in the league. But when those wow plays don't go our way his game can be clunky. He often makes plays nobody else in the league can make. But that means that sometimes he overlooks plays every other QB in the league would make and take the profit for the next play.

This doesn't make him a bad QB. But leveling this out and picking his spots better would improve the offense overall. 

I love me some Josh Allen, but this is something that will frustrate a good portion of the fanbase for eternity. It doesn't frustrate others as much and that is OK too. Both groups are correct. 

[Jauronimo]

49 minutes ago, Simon said:

 

You have no idea who was moving where when Josh made the decision, no idea whether or not he was open at that point and you'll never know from a picture like that.

Your opinion is 100% subjective.

 

I watched the original tape for which the screen shot was clipped to prove pressure and no separation.  Guys were open.  Watch the tape.

[HappyDays]

10 minutes ago, Jauronimo said:

I watched the original tape for which the screen shot was clipped to prove pressure and no separation.  Guys were open.  Watch the tape.

 

He's sprinting away from two pass rushers with another LB bearing down on him... He isn't scanning the field at that point. I know Allen has done superhuman things but let's be fair about what he is physically doing on this play and not act like we're playing Madden. Diggs immediately goes into scramble drill mode and takes his route deep. Allen locks onto him because he's running out of time... The truth is a true alpha #1 WR turns that throw either into a crazy catch or a DPI and nothing in between. But Diggs hasn't been that guy lately.

3 hours ago, Jauronimo said:

He delivered the ball cleanly in this screenshot.  Maybe, MAYBE, he couldn't step into it a few more inches than he would have liked.  He needs to make that throw. He missed guys all afternoon and all night against LAC.

 

3 hours ago, Royale with Cheese said:

 

He's not a mid level franchise QB like a Trevor Lawrence....this is a throw Allen should make.  Not every time, he's human.  But he's missing a lot...

And individual misses are highlighted more because of his inconsistency.  

 

The throw highlighted in that picture was effectively a throw away. Diggs ran a post corner but was unable to separate and finish his route against 1v1 coverage so Allen just threw it over him to avoid a sack. At no point was that pass coming close to being a completion.

 

If you watch that play on the all-22, the play to make was Shakir replacing the blitz on a quick slant from the right slot. I don't know Allen's reads on this play. If he is supposed to lock onto Diggs in 1v1 man coverage no matter what then the play failing is on Diggs for failing to separate. If Allen is supposed to replace the blitz with the throw then it's on him for not reading the blitz pre-snap and getting his eyes over to Shakir.

[Simon]

22 minutes ago, Jauronimo said:

I watched the original tape for which the screen shot was clipped to prove pressure and no separation.  Guys were open.  Watch the tape.

 

Every QB in the history of the NFL misses multiple open guys in every single game they've ever played.

It's not an issue unless it becomes egregious, and imo it is not anywhere approaching egregious.

As for the play in question, I don't recall the underneath coverage precisely, but I do know that particular screen shot is utterly useless in determining who was open when, which is all I was trying to say.

[HappyDays]

This shows that Allen is the best QB in the NFL against what PFF defines as perfect coverage.

[dayman]

Giants….

[Big Turk]

Allen has missed a ton of longer throws this year that he was hitting with regularly last year.

[Chaos]

A subset of Bills fan's grade Allen (and no one else) against perfection.  And every week are thrilled to prove absolutely that he wasn't perfect. 

[Einstein]

3 hours ago, balln said:

Look at Gabe lol. Waste 

Kincaid is wide the freak open. Come on. Doesn’t need to go to diggs way deep

 

1) QB’s don’t have 180 degree field vision. They can’t see everything at one time. Not Brady. Not Kelly. Not Mahomes. Not anyone.
 

2) Allen was not at that point in his progression. He saw Diggs, his first read, have an open look. But by the time Diggs uncovered, three defenders were about to demolish Allen.

 

3) For both of these reasons, and many more, Allen did not look to Kincaid.

 

You can find “open” receivers for every QB. But the context matters.

[Buffalo ill]

7 hours ago, Over 29 years of fanhood said:

What’s the x axis? Is that hundredths of yards? So Baltimore WRs are on average 3/4 inch more open than the bills? 
 

who publishes this nonsense??
 

 

I think it's shills for these random "just made up a new football stat"  sites, who advertise for said sites by posting links on these forums.  

[Beck Water]

8 hours ago, Einstein said:

Allen finds receivers when they get open, at a pace higher than any other QB in the NFL. The problem is that they simply aren’t getting open! 

 

@Maine-iac and I were debating this a few days ago. I have been shouting from the roof tops that Bills receiving options do not gain much separation. The argument I get back is simply “Yes they do! Allen just isn’t throwing to the guys that are open”.

 

Here is a chart, plotted through Week 17, that shows Allen has the highest % of throws to open receivers, despite his receiving options being 27th in the NFL in separation (in totality of all QB’s plotted).

 

 

Also, notice how open Lamar’s receivers are…

 

z

 

I'm not sure these data show what you think they show.

 

Do you honestly believe the NY Giants WR have the 2nd best separation in the league, just a hair behind Baltimore? 

Come On Now....

[Dr.Sack]

7 minutes ago, Beck Water said:

 

I'm not sure these data show what you think they show.

 

Do you honestly believe the NY Giants WR have the 2nd best separation in the league, just a hair behind Baltimore? 

Come On Now....

Understand is that it’s an efficiency formula based on 3+ factors. Not raw separation rather who the pass is going to. On any given play a QB can miss an open WR and throw a pass to one more covered. My understanding is the chart only starts tracking who was targeted. So many factors are left out, including time to pass, OL-clean pocket, QB in/outside the pocket. This isn’t a complete analysis, probably only guys who study film can understand the whole scope of things. 

[Einstein]

1 hour ago, Beck Water said:

Do you honestly believe the NY Giants WR have the 2nd best separation in the league, just a hair behind Baltimore? 

Come On Now....

 

Yes.

But as stated prior, while it’s a bit more complicated than that, it’s a good metric because it’s a fair comparison across all teams using the same qualifiers and grading.

[transplantbillsfan]

10 hours ago, Einstein said:

Allen finds receivers when they get open, at a pace higher than any other QB in the NFL. The problem is that they simply aren’t getting open! 

 

@Maine-iac and I were debating this a few days ago. I have been shouting from the roof tops that Bills receiving options do not gain much separation. The argument I get back is simply “Yes they do! Allen just isn’t throwing to the guys that are open”.

 

Here is a chart, plotted through Week 17, that shows Allen has the highest % of throws to open receivers, despite his receiving options being 27th in the NFL in separation (in totality of all QB’s plotted).

 

 

Also, notice how open Lamar’s receivers are…

 

z

 

This is something I posted about Sunday’s game in the MVP thread. Joe Marino did a full All-22 analysis of the game and largely concludes our receivers are letting Josh down.

 

Bruce Nolan said the same thing in his Bruce Exclusive podcast this week. He emphasizes the team really needs 2 things we don't have: a field stretcher and someone who's dynamic with the ball in their hands.

[Mango]

2 hours ago, Beck Water said:

 

I'm not sure these data show what you think they show.

 

Do you honestly believe the NY Giants WR have the 2nd best separation in the league, just a hair behind Baltimore? 

Come On Now....

And the CIN WR’s with Burrow have over a full standard deviation more separation than Browning?

Or that receivers with Flacco under center are a standard deviation worse than with Watson?

 

Curious of how this is calculated in general. Also wondering if this is separation based on the intended receiver or all receivers per play? Which would maybe explain some of the Giants woes. 

 

One thing I do know, WR separation is not nearly the black and white metric some posters seem to think it is. 

Edited January 6 by Mango
Words

[BuffaloBillsGospel2014]

Me trying to understand charts 

[Drew21PA]

19 hours ago, julian said:

I just see lots of fans crying because Allen isn’t lighting up stat sheet, since Brady took over the Bills have become the most run heavy team in the league and cut down significantly on turnovers, and are 5-1 over that stretch.

 

 Coincidence ? Probably not.

Allen has to throw 300 plus yards - 3 tds and qb rating of 120 plus - don’t you get it?

 

Joking if course

 

i see the all 22 where he misses SOME wr but I’ll say this I have to wonder if it’s okay design becuase sometimes Josh already theows it before the others come open 

 

I’m thinking last week where cook was WIDE open but Josh threw already to the back of the end zone 

[PBF81]

Call me crazy, but third OC in as many seasons, a defensive-minded head coach with zero practical knowledge on the offensive side of offense, "complimentary football" which for us translates to everything revolves around McD's D, ... all with a generational talent at QB.

 

Gee, I wonder why Allen's not more effective.  

 

We'll figure it out when he's in his mid-30s.  It'll be a no-brainer spotting it then, everyone will be a genius.  

 

No wonder Allen's at least a little ph'd up. 

 

 

Edited January 6 by PBF81

[Matt_In_NH]

Receivers not getting open, is that purely on the pass catchers or can it be a function of the scheme?   The passing offense is in the crapper since Brady took over.  They are clearly doing some different things....there are some instances of backs being open downfield but is that at the expense of the WR's somehow?

Edited January 6 by Matt_In_NH

[RunTheBall]

Guys - watch the All-22 of the New England game.

 

McGovern and Torrance SUCKED in pass pro, Morse wasn’t much better.

 

Our interior O-line was getting blown up on the regular, it was absolutely ridiculous how bad our guards got destroyed by Pats* DTs

 

I don’t think Josh has been as mechanically sound or reading the field as good as he has in the past. But against NE, he was pressured up the middle early and often and that will 100% affect the timing in your head as the game progresses. 

[Since1981]

11 hours ago, transplantbillsfan said:

Bruce Nolan said the same thing in his Bruce Exclusive podcast this week. He emphasizes the team really needs 2 things we don't have: a field stretcher and someone who's dynamic with the ball in their hands.

This forum has been saying this for years. A WR2. Speed such as Brown. kinkaid was substituted, after draft run on WR. I think Brady began to figure out Cook passing a little 

54 minutes ago, PBF81 said:

third OC in as many seasons, a defensive-minded head coach with zero practical knowledge on the offensive side of offense, "complimentary football" which for us translates to everything revolves around McD's D

You said it brother!  McClappy defensive influence in spring — no WR2. He probably prefers “complementary ball control TE, over WR2” anyway!

[finn]

11 hours ago, transplantbillsfan said:

 

This is something I posted about Sunday’s game in the MVP thread. Joe Marino did a full All-22 analysis of the game and largely concludes our receivers are letting Josh down.

 

Bruce Nolan said the same thing in his Bruce Exclusive podcast this week. He emphasizes the team really needs 2 things we don't have: a field stretcher and someone who's dynamic with the ball in their hands.

Until last year's draft, Beane has made the defense a priority in the draft. In retrospect, that might have been a mistake, since Allen might have lit up the league with two or especially three quality receivers, likely enough to cover for an average defense. Easiest calls in retrospect: Pickens instead of Elam, and Davante Adams instead of Von Miller. 

 

Imagine Allen throwing to Diggs, Adams, and Pickens. 

[Chicken Boo]

12 hours ago, transplantbillsfan said:

 

This is something I posted about Sunday’s game in the MVP thread. Joe Marino did a full All-22 analysis of the game and largely concludes our receivers are letting Josh down.

 

Bruce Nolan said the same thing in his Bruce Exclusive podcast this week. He emphasizes the team really needs 2 things we don't have: a field stretcher and someone who's dynamic with the ball in their hands.

 

Nonsense.  We need a safety or defensive tackle.  That will put us over the top for sure 🫡

[CincyBillsFan]

20 hours ago, Einstein said:

 

The video reviewer actually says something along the lines of “on second thought, this is a good play by the Patriots. It’s a tough minus (for Allen)”.  Even he admits it’s horse crap to blame Allen for it, but he doesn’t remove it from the film…

 

 

Another from the video. Josh didn’t hit Diggs 25 yards down field, on the run, with two defenders about to pummel him. It was a scramble drill and THIS was used as an example of Allen missing an open guy. The analysis in the video was a joke.

 

 

I get that i’m an Allen homer but my goodness some of the stuff he is getting blamed for is wild.

In fact wasn't this the play where a smart Diggs would have slowed down and drawn a guaranteed PI call? 

18 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

 

And over the last month the worst in the NFL when not under pressure.

Is that all on Allen or does the fact that the receivers often don't get open or at other times drop the ball contribute to this?

 

 

[GunnerBill]

14 minutes ago, CincyBillsFan said:

 

Is that all on Allen or does the fact that the receivers often don't get open or at other times drop the ball contribute to this?

 

 

 

Not all on Allen at all. But there is a narrative that is being attempted here that none of the passing game struggles are on Josh. And they are. It is all parts. Separation hasn't been great against man. Protection has had difficult games against KC and New England. The drops have been drive killers. But there have been bad reads, slow decisions and poor throws (including throws fired in at short quarters unnecessarily) that have contributed too. 

 

Everyone on that side needs to play better tomorrow and in the playoffs. And as always on offense it starts with your Quarterback.

Edited January 6 by GunnerBill

[CincyBillsFan]

12 hours ago, transplantbillsfan said:

 

This is something I posted about Sunday’s game in the MVP thread. Joe Marino did a full All-22 analysis of the game and largely concludes our receivers are letting Josh down.

 

Bruce Nolan said the same thing in his Bruce Exclusive podcast this week. He emphasizes the team really needs 2 things we don't have: a field stretcher and someone who's dynamic with the ball in their hands.

Brown was the field stretcher in 2020 and we haven't had one since for a couple of seasons. This is a huge need when you have a QB that can put the ball almost anywhere on the field from almost any spot on the field.

 

The other thing the Bill's receiving group doesn't have is the type of WR that turns 50/50 balls into 90/10 balls.  The kind that can high point the ball.  You know a guy like D Hop.  The Bills, focusing on the D signed Floyd who has played great and leads the team in sacks.  On the other hand if they had signed D Hop can you imagine how much better the O would be?  Look at the numbers D Hop has posted with the crap QB's in TN throwing to him:  68 catches for 1011 yards & 6 TD's.

 

These are the choices that the Bills, as a defensive minded franchise, are making. The Bengals let 2 very good safeties walk in order to free up money to further strengthen their O line to protect their elite QB so he could make more throws to their elite collection of WR's.

 

 

 

[GunnerBill]

4 minutes ago, CincyBillsFan said:

 

These are the choices that the Bills, as a defensive minded franchise, are making. The Bengals let 2 very good safeties walk in order to free up money to further strengthen their O line to protect their elite QB so he could make more throws to their elite collection of WR's.

 

 

 

 

They did have a 2nd year safety they spent a 1st round pick on ready to step in, which factored into that decision. 

[CincyBillsFan]

3 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

Not all on Allen at all. But there is a narrative that is being attempted here that none of the passing game struggles are on Josh. And they are. It is all parts. Separation hasn't been great against man. Protection has had difficult games against KC and New England. The drops have been drive killers. But there have been bad reads, slow decisions and poor throws (including throws fired in at short quarters unnecessarily) that have contributed too. 

 

Everyone on that side needs to play better tomorrow and in the playoffs. And as always on offense it starts with your Quarterback.

This is true of every elite QB in the NFL today.  I agree that Allen owns some of this but at the same time the Bills have not focused on surrounding him with high end play makers until just this off season and that was through the draft. 

 

Allen is the reason the Bills are playing for a division title tomorrow and the reason that they've won at least 10 games for the last 5 seasons, and are on the cusp of winning at least 11 games for 4 straight seasons and are about to make it 5 straight playoff seasons and 4 straight division titles.

 

IMO nitpicking what Allen could do a little better to get the Bills over the hump is the last place this team needs to look.  

 

 

 

[Beck Water]

2 hours ago, Drew21PA said:

Allen has to throw 300 plus yards - 3 tds and qb rating of 120 plus - don’t you get it?

 

Joking if course

 

i see the all 22 where he misses SOME wr but I’ll say this I have to wonder if it’s okay design becuase sometimes Josh already theows it before the others come open 

 

I’m thinking last week where cook was WIDE open but Josh threw already to the back of the end zone 

 

This is why I tell people - I can not watch the televised film and tell whether it's true that "no one is getting open" during a game.   I know some people here can - they know enough ball that they can make an educated guess as to what all the routes look like and what coverage it is, just based on the glimpses on network - but I suspect that most of those who opine 'no receivers are open' are typically more like me, because when I do watch All 22 I see open receivers.

 

And when a receiver is open - it takes careful observation to tell, was he open at the right time, when Josh needed to make a decision to throw?

 

Then there's the question of the design of the play, what order are the reads.

Edited January 6 by Beck Water

[CincyBillsFan]

2 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

They did have a 2nd year safety they spent a 1st round pick on ready to step in, which factored into that decision. 

The Bengal's made a decision based on what was best for their offense.  They did this because they have an elite QB and they have worked tirelessly the last few seasons to surround him with the best possible talent on O.  The Bills made off season FA decisions based on what was best for their defense. At its core this is the fundamental difference between Buffalo and the other leading SB contenders this season.