Offensive Supporting Cast

[NoSaint]

22 hours ago, C.Biscuit97 said:

There was some narrative early in the season that Allen was surrounded by bums. Josh is our best player and a top 3 qb but can we finally argee that there is legit good talent on this offense? 
 

- one of the most improved (and honestly one of the best o lines in the nfl)

- a top 5 receiver 

- a top 5 rb who is breaking out big time 

- a 1st round TE who is emerging as one of the best receiving TEs in the nfl 

 

 

obviously, Allen is the star but can we finally admit this is a really good group around him? How many groups are better? SF, Philly, Miami, and maybe Detroit? 

I think you may be swinging a little hard the other way -

 

I’m not sure diggs is top 5

 

kincaid is on the upswing for sure but has some space between where he’s at and reaching his potential 

 

I’ve been on the cook bandwagon for a long time so I’ll only argue so much there- though health is likely helping that full throated top 5 at the moment

 

i don’t think our perimeter talent is exceptional really but I do think we have some fun pieces mixed in and Josh elevates all of them 

Edited December 21, 2023 by NoSaint

[John from Riverside]

Would feel a lot better if we had that number two wide receiver, that guy that would take advantage of the fact that they’re so worried about diggs 

[BADOLBILZ]

49 minutes ago, JohnNord said:

I think the talent is starting to get there.  For almost two years Chris Simms has been saying “someone else is allowed to step up besides Josh Allen and Stefan Diggs”

 

We’ve seen that happen ever since Joe Brady took over - especially last week against Dallas.  For the first time ever, the best player on the Bills offense was not named Allen or Diggs.  
 

I don’t think Kincaid is there yet but we’ve seen flashes and Knox is an excellent TE2 though I don’t think he’ll be around long term w/ his contract and Kincaid.  

The spot that needs to be improved is WR.  Diggs is 30 and we might be seeing the beginning of some signs of decline.  I think Shakir has potential as a WR3 but lacks the overall consistency.  Gabe Davis… great blocker but we need more of a threat at WR2.  
 

OL is pretty good and should return next season in tact though at some point, a Mitch Morse replacement will be needed.  
 

So they are getting there - I’d still like to see a WR taken in R1 this year 

 

 

Important to note that I think Simms has meant "step up" in conjunction with Diggs.    The Bills can't get the ball to Diggs.   It's kind of been either/or.

 

[HappyDays]

24 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

But he is still a master of his craft as a route runner and he was always a guy who relied on his route running skill over his speed and suddenness.

 

This points to another problem in our offense, we don't have anyone that can win at the catch point. Either Diggs wins his route or one of the other guys gets schemed open or forgotten about by the defense. I can't think of many offenses that don't have a go to guy where if you see him 1v1 you can just toss the ball in his general direction and there's a better than even chance he'll come down with it. Kincaid was advertised as a great contested catch guy but he isn't there yet.

 

Similarly we don't have anyone that truly scares defenses with the ball in their hands. Cook is the best we have in that area but he is never going to catch a 5 yard slant and turn it into a 50 yard TD.

 

The more I think about it the more perplexed I am by this thread. We have one pass catcher that consistently separates at an above average level and even he has not been dominant. We have zero contested catch specialists. We have zero elite YAC guys. As a result, the offense has a crazy low margin for error.

 

Edited December 21, 2023 by HappyDays

[JohnNord]

23 minutes ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

 

Important to note that I think Simms has meant "step up" in conjunction with Diggs.    The Bills can't get the ball to Diggs.   It's kind of been either/or.

 

Maybe but his criticism was always that it was Allen to Diggs or nothing.  The Bills needs contributions from other players and they are getting it with Cook

[khlax3]

Bills should bring the entire oline including backups back, the entire TE group back, and Ty Johnson as a rb3.

 

they need a back up qb (should use a late round pick on one so we have someone for 4 years) 

 

they need a rb2- cheap vet or late draft pick (or if they like what fornette has done in practice just bring him in as the rb2

 

they need 2 wrs (draft one high and a mid tier vet (Diggs, high draft pick, shakir, mid tier vet, resign Sherfield as blocking wr, and shorter

[C.Biscuit97]

4 hours ago, WotAGuy said:

The only thing missing is the guy that can make the long play. Gabe was the one for a bit but no longer. 

Agreed. Honestly, we hit what we should have expected with Gabe (and maybe more). He was a 4th rounder with not great speed. 
 

I would love  to see Rome O or Keon Coleman be next to Diggs next year. Guys with all the traits who can grew into a number 1 receiver eventually.

[Chicken Boo]

1 hour ago, NewEra said:

You listed 8 and some might still regard Diggs as better than Deebo….. a RB playing WR in a freaky system.  

You’d take deebo over Diggs? 🤣 

 

No disrespect to Diggs, but I'd take Deebo over him any day.  

 

Samuel struggles with injuries, but when he's healthy, there isn't a better weapon at the position.

 

2021 - 77 rec 1405 6TDs 18.2ypc with another 365 rushing and 8 TDs.

 

Stef isn't that, especially not with Jimmy Garopollo at QB.

Edited December 21, 2023 by Chicken Boo

[C.Biscuit97]

2 hours ago, BillsVet said:

 

Allen's supporting cast was not characterized as "bums" which is just a hyperbolic statement.   The comparison was to teams like CIN, KC, and PHI he didn't have the skilled talent at WR/TE.  

 

I wouldn't characterize Kincaid as "one of the best receiving TE's in the NFL."  He's averaging 8 yards per catch, good for 112th in the league among WR and TE.  As advertised, his hands are excellent but he's not top tier yet.  

 

Also shouldn't go unsaid that the OL playing well is a major factor, but skilled receivers are not all that.

Trust me there are some threads and there was a lot of down talk about the supporting group. 

Kincaid, before we didn’t need to pass last week and when Knox got hurt has averaged 53.9 yards in 7 games. That puts him basically tied with LaPorta 4th.  

https://www.cbssports.com/fantasy/football/stats/TE/2023/ytd/stats/nonppr/?sortcol=receiving_yds&sortdir=descending
 

100% agree he needs to get the ball further down the field and hope we see it more in the next few games 

3 hours ago, GoBills808 said:

That's what I mean about QB dependent tho

 

Before he got to Buffalo nobody had Diggs as a top5 wideout

I agree he wasn’t top 5 in Minny but he essentially averaged 1,000 yards/ season despite missing games every year. He has been a really good player since his rookie year. https://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/D/DiggSt00.htm
 

allen and Diggs took each other to the next level.

6 minutes ago, Chicken Boo said:

 

No disrespect to Diggs, but I'd take Deebo over him any day.  

 

Samuel struggles with injuries, but when he's healthy, there isn't a better weapon at the position.

 

2021 - 77 rec 1405 6TDs 18.2ypc with another 365 rushing and 8 TDs.

 

Stef isn't that, especially not with Jimmy Garopollo at QB.

I agree that Deebo is the more explosive player but Diggs’ game will make him be productive for longer. 

[The Jokeman]

4 hours ago, NeverOutNick said:

100% the WR room needs to improve but I’ve got to admit I was wrong on cook. He may not be great after contact and he has lapses in concentration with 2 big time TD drops (eagles and cowboys) but man is he a fun chess piece for this offense. Also I love Kincaid! Outside of his horrible decision to wear rain gloves, he has been clutch city for Josh in key moments. Diggs had the nice one handed grab last week but he has taken a step back later this season and even though Davis is a great blocker, he can’t be relied on as an actual pass catcher. Sherfield looks like a huge whiff as he looks lost whenever he’s on the field. I thought he’d be a nice addition after his great preseason. Harry was supposed to be the gadget dude who was paid like he could also be our deep threat too but that experiment didn’t pan out either. Shakir looks like a solid WR who is improving each year but addressing is a huge need this offseason. No more jags. Josh needs more dudes he can depend in big moments. 
 

2 big additions the bills need to try hard for are:

 

#1 draft Odunze if he is anywhere close to falling past top 15. Watch him with Penix. Game on the line, everyone in the world knows it’s going to Odunze and he’s clutch city

 

#2 trade for Courtland Sutton. This dude is a dawg! Imagine him having any competent QB play. He’s a #1 WR getting paid like a 2. 
 

id love to get both of these dudes but realistically we would probably only get one. They’re both big bodied, freak athletes who are red zone monsters and for bigger dudes can actually separate from defenders. 
 

I know others will want Tee Higgins or Mr. Drop, Mike Evans but I don’t think they’re the consistent contributor that Josh needs from his new #1 target as Diggs transitions to 2 as he declines (he’s still awesome just not the guy he was as consistently). Higgins isn’t a great separator and Mike is just not clutch any more. Both make the spectacular catch from time to time and I’d welcome them in Buffalo but Sutton and Odunze are top 5 WRs in this league with Josh as their QB

 

 

I'd love Michael Pittman and wanted him in his draft year too. Yet doubt we have the money. In terms of the draft Odunze and Troy Franklin. 

[C.Biscuit97]

56 minutes ago, HappyDays said:

 

This points to another problem in our offense, we don't have anyone that can win at the catch point. Either Diggs wins his route or one of the other guys gets schemed open or forgotten about by the defense. I can't think of many offenses that don't have a go to guy where if you see him 1v1 you can just toss the ball in his general direction and there's a better than even chance he'll come down with it. Kincaid was advertised as a great contested catch guy but he isn't there yet.

 

Similarly we don't have anyone that truly scares defenses with the ball in their hands. Cook is the best we have in that area but he is never going to catch a 5 yard slant and turn it into a 50 yard TD.

 

The more I think about it the more perplexed I am by this thread. We have one pass catcher that consistently separates at an above average level and even he has not been dominant. We have zero contested catch specialists. We have zero elite YAC guys. As a result, the offense has a crazy low margin for error.

 

I know you’re a guy who can’t criticize Allen but isn’t that part on him as well? Davis has caught a ton of deep passes here. We have almost essentially the same receivers as last year unless you think McKenzie was a huge loss, 

 

the deep ball has been missing and we do lack high speed. But Allen seemed more accurate throwing them in past years.

[Bookie Man]

Only element missing from this offense is a deep threat. Anyone remember the last time this offense hit the deep ball? Need a field stretcher. 

[C.Biscuit97]

1 hour ago, NoSaint said:

I think you may be swinging a little hard the other way -

 

I’m not sure diggs is top 5

 

kincaid is on the upswing for sure but has some space between where he’s at and reaching his potential 

 

I’ve been on the cook bandwagon for a long time so I’ll only argue so much there- though health is likely helping that fill throated top 5 at the moment

 

i don’t think our perimeter talent is exceptional really but I do think we have some fun pieces mixed in and Josh elevates all of them 

Since Diggs has gotten here, he is a top 5 receiver and the stats back that up. He is the best route runner on the game. Would I rather have a baggier faster guy like Chase? Yeah for sure. But Diggs is great and always gets opened or doubled. 
 

and cook has gotten better as the season has gone along. It wasn’t his fault that we need to give our backup RBs so many Carries or didn’t throw to him early in the season. 

 

In a league that hates RBs, he was a second round pick. Guy has insane talent, he averages 5.3 ypc for his career. Also isn’t availability the best ability? 

[NeverOutNick]

14 minutes ago, The Jokeman said:

I'd love Michael Pittman and wanted him in his draft year too. Yet doubt we have the money. In terms of the draft Odunze and Troy Franklin. 

I do love me some Franklin. He actually reminds me of Diggs, the way he plays

[HappyDays]

21 minutes ago, C.Biscuit97 said:

I know you’re a guy who can’t criticize Allen but isn’t that part on him as well? Davis has caught a ton of deep passes here. We have almost essentially the same receivers as last year unless you think McKenzie was a huge loss, 

 

the deep ball has been missing and we do lack high speed. But Allen seemed more accurate throwing them in past years.

 

So in your mind did the Chiefs lose the ability to throw the ball deep the past two years because Mahomes suddenly forgot how to do that? Obviously it's an issue of personnel. Also to be fair defenses aren't letting teams take those shots anymore. The Dolphins are the only offense regularly getting their guys streaking wide open down field behind the defense. All the other deep shots I'm seeing completed, it's usually the intended receiver just being an alpha and winning above the rim. Nice work if you can get it... But if you don't have vertical speed or contested catch specialists, even with elite QB play your offense is going to look a lot like the Bills and Chiefs this year. A lot of horizontal passes that go nowhere and long periods of time where everything looks hard.

 

I don't agree we have the same caliber of pass catchers that we had last year. Diggs and Davis both have played worse this year than they did last year. For Davis in particular this is almost inexplicable but he has been flat out awful in several games this year. Shakir has been okay. Harty has been an afterthought. Sherfield never seems to know what route he's supposed to be running. Of those players only Shakir is better than the version of himself from last year but he's still a JAG.

 

I will agree the OL this year is the best of Allen's career, as is the running game. Brady is maximizing the personnel much better than Dorsey did too. It is not a talent devoid offense at the level of the Giants or the Panthers for example, but no one objective would say offensive talent is a strength of the team either. It is below par compared to other recent championship contenders.

[NewEra]

1 hour ago, Mr. WEO said:

this year he  isn’t.  And that’s ok.  You know this.   It’s down year for him, I believe you’ve pointed that out 

Down year and he’s still a top 10 WR.  I’ve already pointed that out.  

46 minutes ago, Chicken Boo said:

 

No disrespect to Diggs, but I'd take Deebo over him any day.  

 

Samuel struggles with injuries, but when he's healthy, there isn't a better weapon at the position.

 

2021 - 77 rec 1405 6TDs 18.2ypc with another 365 rushing and 8 TDs.

 

Stef isn't that, especially not with Jimmy Garopollo at QB.

Deebo is in the best offense in football, with the best play caller in football.  Put deebo on the Bills and you see a different deebo.  He’s not a good route runner.  He’s a great runner with the ball

[buffblue]

2 hours ago, HappyDays said:

 

Not this year though.

 

Hill

Brown

Jefferson

Chase

Cooper

Adams

Wilson

Samuel

 

Those are pretty clearly the most dominant WRs in the league right now, with varying degrees of QB play obviously.

 

Then you have guys in the next tier like Lamb, Evans, Aiyuk. Diggs is somewhere in that tier right now, for my money closer to the bottom than the top. He just hasn't been anywhere close to his dominant self in recent weeks.

 

So I really don't agree at all that we have a top 10 group of weapons. Middle of the pack IMO. Davis has been invisible in like half of our games this year. Kincaid is a rookie, any hopes that he would immediately take over as our #2 pass catcher have not come to fruition.

 

Honestly Cook might be our best skill player right now. If he can play as well as he did against the Cowboys for the rest of the season and through the playoffs, maybe we can be the first team in a long time to make it to the Super Bowl without a legitimate #2 pass catcher. That weakness certainly lowers the margin of error though.

I'm putting Lamb in that first group. He is a stud

[Chicken Boo]

2 hours ago, NewEra said:

Down year and he’s still a top 10 WR.  I’ve already pointed that out.  

Deebo is in the best offense in football, with the best play caller in football.  Put deebo on the Bills and you see a different deebo.  He’s not a good route runner.  He’s a great runner with the ball

 

I don't know.  I'm starting to think Brady would know what to do with him 😉

 

He's a playmaker.  Arguably, the best in football. 

[NewEra]

14 minutes ago, Chicken Boo said:

 

I don't know.  I'm starting to think Brady would know what to do with him 😉

 

He's a playmaker.  Arguably, the best in football. 

The niners oppositions have so much to worry about.  Cmc is the best playmaker in the game and he’s getting holes opened by the best LT in the game with plays getting gettting by the best play caller in the league while being flanked by Aiyuk and Kittle. 

 

We wouldn’t have any route runners if we traded Diggs for deebo.  Deebo would not be nearly as effective as our WR1.   Dudr is running wide open on 90 % of his catches and it’s not becssue he’s such a refined route runner.  
 

agree to disagree. 

[Straight Hucklebuck]

The line, ESPN Analytics has them at 63% Pass Block win rate (6th), and 72% Run Block win rate (7th).

 

So a legitimate Top 10 offensive line. 
 

The entire McDermott era has featured a younger back, stuck behind a veteran. 
 

Cook has definitely broken out of that vice grip. Johnson, Murray (even Fournette) are a good rotation behind there - so much better than the Gore, Singletary, Moss days.

 

I am less sold on Kincaid’s season than most. He’s been okay, but I see him as mostly a background piece so far. He catches short passes, for not a lot of yardage. Joe Marino has talked about how he wants him to be the unquestioned #2 pass option next year and I’m not there at all.

 

Our WR group is 10-12th even with a high-level Diggs averaged in. Davis doesn’t come back for the ball, high point, or Moss anyone. He can catch a post route if he has 2-3 yards or separation, or a minimal separation comeback route. That’s all he does. He can go.

 

Shakir is ok.

 

Harty and Sherfield haven’t done enough to really hand out more than an Incomplete grade. They have virtually no role.
 

Harty had a nice 25-yard grab against the Chiefs. 

 

Needs are #2 WR, and best Offensive Lineman available. 

[Solomon Grundy]

9 hours ago, Dillenger4 said:

Yep - I agree OP. Well said for sure. Even Shakir - I wish we used him more as he looks potent at times. And don't forget Ty Johnson... he is a beast and very hard to tackle. Ty will be a cog for us as we approach the playoffs.

Finally some recognition for Ty Johnson!! 

[stinky finger]

8 hours ago, NewEra said:

The RB group is very good.  The TE group is very good.  The OL looks to be good/very good.  The WR group is lacking but they have roles that work what could be our new identity. Diggs is an elite WR that is having a rough go as of late.  I have no worries about him on game days.  Davis and Sheffield are two of the best blocking WRs in the league and aren’t bums in the passing game.  Shakir looks to be emerging as a solid WR3 option.  
 

Going forward- we only need to worry about adding a legit WR2……unless we just plan to pound the rock and decide resign gabe.  I don’t see that happening tho.  He’ll probably chase the most $ and I hope that’s not us). 

Agree on RB group. TEs very good? Disagree there. Could be good. Lacking consistency as I see it. Diggs, while kind of stale recently, will be himself I believe. Shakir is the only other I trust.

 

OL I agree, Good and becoming better and with attitude. 

[mannc]

9 hours ago, GoBills808 said:

Vikings obviously better

Cowboys

Bengals

Rams

Chargers

All likely better or close

Bills have midtier talent on offense

Chargers????????🤣🤣🤣

[GunnerBill]

5 hours ago, NewEra said:

 

Deebo is in the best offense in football, with the best play caller in football.  Put deebo on the Bills and you see a different deebo.  He’s not a good route runner.  He’s a great runner with the ball

 

I agree with this with Deebo. I said it when he was holding out and requesting a trade. Be careful what you wish for because I think his skillset is a really specific fit for what Kyle Shanahan does. And I know there are a ton of Shanahan copycats now but I am not sure any of them understand that offense as well as the master. Deebo is absolutely an elite player in that scheme. I am not sure he is a guy who would be elite wherever he was. 

[GoBills808]

7 hours ago, NewEra said:

The position has always been somewhat QB dependent no?  Are Marvin Harrison and Reggie Wayne in the HoF if the Bills had drafted them instead of the colts?  Is Jerry rice the greatest WR ever if he was drafted by the cardinals?  
 

Diggs had two things in the way while he was in Minny- having another top WR in theilen and had bridgewater, Bradford and keenum his first 3 years.  Cousins for his next two.  Yet our GN thought he was worth multiple draft picks.  Beane thought he was top 10.  

 

I didn’t think he was a top 5 WR in minny but I thought he was top 10.  What he’s shown his first 3.5 years in Buffalo makes me believe he’s top 5.  Def top 10.  He’s hit a rough patch.  It happens.  Not sure why anyone would doubt him based on a rough patch

I stand by my comment that he’d be voted top 10 WR by just about every nfl

player. If not all.  
 

You listed 8 and some might still regard Diggs as better than Deebo….. a RB playing WR in a freaky system.  

You’d take deebo over Diggs? 🤣 

It matters for sure

 

Diggs has always been borderline elite for me, doesn't have elite physical tools. And if people want to lie and say they thought he was top5 in Minnesota that's fine but he was like 15th in yards and 26th in TDs his last year there😂😂

[GunnerBill]

12 hours ago, HappyDays said:

 

This points to another problem in our offense, we don't have anyone that can win at the catch point. Either Diggs wins his route or one of the other guys gets schemed open or forgotten about by the defense. I can't think of many offenses that don't have a go to guy where if you see him 1v1 you can just toss the ball in his general direction and there's a better than even chance he'll come down with it. Kincaid was advertised as a great contested catch guy but he isn't there yet.

 

Similarly we don't have anyone that truly scares defenses with the ball in their hands. Cook is the best we have in that area but he is never going to catch a 5 yard slant and turn it into a 50 yard TD.

 

The more I think about it the more perplexed I am by this thread. We have one pass catcher that consistently separates at an above average level and even he has not been dominant. We have zero contested catch specialists. We have zero elite YAC guys. As a result, the offense has a crazy low margin for error.

 

 

Few thoughts on this:

 

1. I'm not sure who advertised Kincaid as a contested catch guy. He has good hands but he is the tight end equivalent of Stef, he wins with crafty, nuanced route running. 

 

2. I am not big on contested catch guys personally. I don't really want us to focus on finding that. I'd much rather get people who separate either with burst or route running. 

 

3. Definitely true that we lack a guy who can win quickly - which is an issue in games like the Chiefs one where they are beating our protection quickly and Josh can't just let one go in the general direction of a guy he can confident will win his assignment. The overall wide receiver corps is still below average. I'm happy with Kincaid and think he will get better and better, but man I wanted Jordan Addison badly and he was perfect for this offense. I'm also very confident he'd have been the pick. Missing him by two spots sucks. Looks a deeper WR draft at the top this year though, so fingers crossed.

 

4. The thread is still a justified thread. The oline performance the past two years has been dreadful and it has majorly hamstrung offensive performance. That is not a justifiable criticism this year. I don't think the oline is dominant (it isn't the Eagles line) but has been halfway or just above halfway up the NFL this season. Certainly better than Cincy, and I think better than San Fran really who while they have an elite of the elite at LT as soon as Williams was out you saw how bad they were without him - when the second best starter on your line is Jon Feliciano you are in trouble. And James Cook has emerged as a top 5 back who is still clocking over 5ypc while handling a #1 back number of carries and is a genuine dual threat. The supporting cast is improved. At times last year (especially with Dion underperforming in 2022) you could legitimately argue it was Josh Allen, Stef Diggs and 9 JAGs. It has not been that this year. They can still get better, sure, especially at receiver.

 

5. I think you are spot on about the low margin of error in the pass game. And it is why ultimately Ken Dorsey had to go. Ken's offense wasn't horrible, but it was pretty vanilla. Pretty simple. And therefore it put a lot of emphasis on execution. More emphasis than the playmaking talent on this roster could handle on a consistent basis. Brady hasn't overhauled the scheme, it is almost impossible to do that in-season even if he wanted to. But they are using more pre-snap shift and motion, in run and pass game, which is giving them a numbers and leverage advantage on multiple plays and he is calling fewer hitch / comeback routes that necessarily limit YAC potential. These are routes Josh has always been very comfortable with and because of his alleged closeness with Dorsey I kinda wonder if Dors pandered to him too much on calling them. But Brady has found a way to get the ball to the middle more with his calls. Again, it isn't radical overhaul.... it is just a slightly more creative approach to doing the same stuff and it has increased some of that "margin of error" which is a good thing (while I am on that subject this blog is highly recommended reading). 

 

4 hours ago, GoBills808 said:

It matters for sure

 

Diggs has always been borderline elite for me, doesn't have elite physical tools. And if people want to lie and say they thought he was top5 in Minnesota that's fine but he was like 15th in yards and 26th in TDs his last year there😂😂

 

Not a lie from me. I said on here I thought he was clear top 10 and a borderline top 5 receiver when the trade went down. 

Edited December 21, 2023 by GunnerBill

[Teddy KGB]

16 hours ago, C.Biscuit97 said:

There was some narrative early in the season that Allen was surrounded by bums. Josh is our best player and a top 3 qb but can we finally argee that there is legit good talent on this offense? 
 

- one of the most improved (and honestly one of the best o lines in the nfl)

- a top 5 receiver 

- a top 5 rb who is breaking out big time 

- a 1st round TE who is emerging as one of the best receiving TEs in the nfl 

 

 

obviously, Allen is the star but can we finally admit this is a really good group around him? How many groups are better? SF, Philly, Miami, and maybe Detroit? 

I thought only Knox and Gabe Davis were bums iirc 

[Straight Hucklebuck]

I think Cook is a nice diversion for the main problem still, and that is no playmaking threat at WR. 

[FireChans]

Just now, GoBills808 said:

It's all relative right

 

If the Browns or Jets had a QB their weapons would look on par w ours

I don't think either of those teams have as good of WR's as Diggs tbh

[PBF81]

19 hours ago, GoBills808 said:

Vikings obviously better

Cowboys

Bengals

Rams

Chargers

All likely better or close

Bills have midtier talent on offense

 

Chargers?

 

You'd rather have Ekeler, Keenan Allen, Josh Palmer, and Gerald Everett (TE), than Cook, Diggs, Davis, Shakir, and Kincaid?

 

 

19 hours ago, C.Biscuit97 said:

There was some narrative early in the season that Allen was surrounded by bums. Josh is our best player and a top 3 qb but can we finally argee that there is legit good talent on this offense? 
 

- one of the most improved (and honestly one of the best o lines in the nfl)

- a top 5 receiver 

- a top 5 rb who is breaking out big time 

- a 1st round TE who is emerging as one of the best receiving TEs in the nfl 

 

 

obviously, Allen is the star but can we finally admit this is a really good group around him? How many groups are better? SF, Philly, Miami, and maybe Detroit? 

 

We're well above average regardless.  The way everyone talks you'd think we suck in the talent department.

 

This offense should have been seeing records this season. 

 

 

[Bobby Hooks]

19 hours ago, WotAGuy said:

The only thing missing is the guy that can make the long play. Gabe was the one for a bit but no longer. 

Gotta wait for the playoffs, then playoff Gabe will come to play. 
 

With that said, where’s playoff Lenny? 

[HappyDays]

4 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

 

Few thoughts on this:

 

1. I'm not sure who advertised Kincaid as a contested catch guy. He has good hands but he is the tight end equivalent of Stef, he wins with crafty, nuanced route running. 

 

2. I am not big on contested catch guys personally. I don't really want us to focus on finding that. I'd much rather get people who separate either with burst or route running. 

 

3. Definitely true that we lack a guy who can win quickly - which is an issue in games like the Chiefs one where they are beating our protection quickly and Josh can't just let one go in the general direction of a guy he can confident will win his assignment. The overall wide receiver corps is still below average. I'm happy with Kincaid and think he will get better and better, but man I wanted Jordan Addison badly and he was perfect for this offense. I'm also very confident he'd have been the pick. Missing him by two spots sucks. Looks a deeper WR draft at the top this year though, so fingers crossed.

 

4. The thread is still a justified thread. The oline performance the past two years has been dreadful and it has majorly hamstrung offensive performance. That is not a justifiable criticism this year. I don't think the oline is dominant (it isn't the Eagles line) but has been halfway or just above halfway up the NFL this season. Certainly better than Cincy, and I think better than San Fran really who while they have an elite of the elite at LT as soon as Williams was out you saw how bad they were without him - when the second best starter on your line is Jon Feliciano you are in trouble. And James Cook has emerged as a top 5 back who is still clocking over 5ypc while handling a #1 back number of carries and is a genuine dual threat. The supporting cast is improved. At times last year (especially with Dion underperforming in 2022) you could legitimately argue it was Josh Allen, Stef Diggs and 9 JAGs. It has not been that this year. They can still get better, sure, especially at receiver.

 

5. I think you are spot on about the low margin of error in the pass game. And it is why ultimately Ken Dorsey had to go. Ken's offense wasn't horrible, but it was pretty vanilla. Pretty simple. And therefore it put a lot of emphasis on execution. More emphasis than the playmaking talent on this roster could handle on a consistent basis. Brady hasn't overhauled the scheme, it is almost impossible to do that in-season even if he wanted to. But they are using more pre-snap shift and motion, in run and pass game, which is giving them a numbers and leverage advantage on multiple plays and he is calling fewer hitch / comeback routes that necessarily limit YAC potential. These are routes Josh has always been very comfortable with and because of his alleged closeness with Dorsey I kinda wonder if Dors pandered to him too much on calling them. But Brady has found a way to get the ball to the middle more with his calls. Again, it isn't radical overhaul.... it is just a slightly more creative approach to doing the same stuff and it has increased some of that "margin of error" which is a good thing (while I am on that subject this blog is highly recommended reading).

 

I don't disagree with a lot of what you said here. It just comes down to priorities. Like I agree that scouting contested catch specialists is not a good use of resources. But most offenses have a pass catcher that can make them from time to time, in addition to whatever other receiving skills they have. We don't have anybody that can make contested catches at all. Which means if the intended target doesn't flat out beat his coverage man on the route, or isn't schemed wide open, the pass has no chance of being completed. That's an unusual weakness for a supposedly championship caliber offense.

 

The OL is better than it was last year but it's not really a strength of the team. There are still a few too many 1v1 losses. The protection scheme still gets broken down by stunts and blitzes too frequently. And I'm fine with this... I don't think a team needs the best OL in football to compete for a championship. But I struggle to make the leap from "the OL is maybe slightly above average now" to "the offensive personnel isn't as bad as people say."

 

Ditto for talking about Cook. Having a top 5ish RB is a luxury. It isn't the engine that drives championship offenses. And running the offense through a RB inevitably creates that low margin for error. I've noticed this year that holding calls more than ever before in the Josh Allen era are killing drives (I don't have stats on this, but that's how it has felt). In the past I always felt confident even on 3rd and 15, but this year it feels like drives are DOA with any kind of negative play. I don't think this is a coincidence. We are having to paper over some pretty large weaknesses in skill position personnel, and those weaknesses get exposed quickly with the slightest misstep. The low margin for error is still there... Brady has just done a better job of papering over it than Dorsey did. And if you agree with me about the low margin for error, you must agree there are personnel issues creating it.

 

I know I'm a broken record on this but the lack of a true go-to #2 pass catcher is still a massive problem for the team. Every recent Super Bowl participant has had a #2 pass catcher that is much better than Davis (or Kincaid for that matter, who as a rookie is still learning). The worst in recent years was JuJu Smith-Schuster for the Chiefs last year. That's the floor and we are not meeting that floor right now. I think Kincaid can get there as early as next year, but talking about this season only it is a noticeable missing element for our offense.

 

And this is a talking point I never thought I would be bringing up this year, but now I am concerned that our #1 pass catcher is not at the caliber of other team's #1s. The Diggs that we've seen in the past month especially has not been even a top 10 WR.

 

If that trend with Diggs continues, we're running an offense with a slightly above average OL, where our best skill player is a RB, our best WR is somewhere outside the top 10, our 2nd best pass catcher is a rookie TE, and everyone else is a JAG or worse. That does not come close to fitting the profile of a championship offense.

 

There is still a path to us winning the Super Bowl. Allen plays elite football the rest of the way, the defense plays like a top 5 defense, the run game continues to look like a top 5 run offense, Bass gets over whatever his issue has been this year, and we get a few bounces of the ball to go our way. But it's frustrating that the path isn't easier than that solely because Brandon Beane failed to bring in a substantial upgrade to our skill position personnel.

[Big Turk]

1 hour ago, HappyDays said:

 

I don't disagree with a lot of what you said here. It just comes down to priorities. Like I agree that scouting contested catch specialists is not a good use of resources. But most offenses have a pass catcher that can make them from time to time, in addition to whatever other receiving skills they have. We don't have anybody that can make contested catches at all. Which means if the intended target doesn't flat out beat his coverage man on the route, or isn't schemed wide open, the pass has no chance of being completed. That's an unusual weakness for a supposedly championship caliber offense.

 

The OL is better than it was last year but it's not really a strength of the team. There are still a few too many 1v1 losses. The protection scheme still gets broken down by stunts and blitzes too frequently. And I'm fine with this... I don't think a team needs the best OL in football to compete for a championship. But I struggle to make the leap from "the OL is maybe slightly above average now" to "the offensive personnel isn't as bad as people say."

 

Ditto for talking about Cook. Having a top 5ish RB is a luxury. It isn't the engine that drives championship offenses. And running the offense through a RB inevitably creates that low margin for error. I've noticed this year that holding calls more than ever before in the Josh Allen era are killing drives (I don't have stats on this, but that's how it has felt). In the past I always felt confident even on 3rd and 15, but this year it feels like drives are DOA with any kind of negative play. I don't think this is a coincidence. We are having to paper over some pretty large weaknesses in skill position personnel, and those weaknesses get exposed quickly with the slightest misstep. The low margin for error is still there... Brady has just done a better job of papering over it than Dorsey did. And if you agree with me about the low margin for error, you must agree there are personnel issues creating it.

 

I know I'm a broken record on this but the lack of a true go-to #2 pass catcher is still a massive problem for the team. Every recent Super Bowl participant has had a #2 pass catcher that is much better than Davis (or Kincaid for that matter, who as a rookie is still learning). The worst in recent years was JuJu Smith-Schuster for the Chiefs last year. That's the floor and we are not meeting that floor right now. I think Kincaid can get there as early as next year, but talking about this season only it is a noticeable missing element for our offense.

 

And this is a talking point I never thought I would be bringing up this year, but now I am concerned that our #1 pass catcher is not at the caliber of other team's #1s. The Diggs that we've seen in the past month especially has not been even a top 10 WR.

 

If that trend with Diggs continues, we're running an offense with a slightly above average OL, where our best skill player is a RB, our best WR is somewhere outside the top 10, our 2nd best pass catcher is a rookie TE, and everyone else is a JAG or worse. That does not come close to fitting the profile of a championship offense.

 

There is still a path to us winning the Super Bowl. Allen plays elite football the rest of the way, the defense plays like a top 5 defense, the run game continues to look like a top 5 run offense, Bass gets over whatever his issue has been this year, and we get a few bounces of the ball to go our way. But it's frustrating that the path isn't easier than that solely because Brandon Beane failed to bring in a substantial upgrade to our skill position personnel.

 

Our offensive line is not slightly above average...by many metrics it is one of the best in the NFL. Allen is the least sacked QB in the NFL.  Cook is averaging over 5 YPC, not much you can complain about with them really.

 

 

 

 

Edited December 21, 2023 by Big Turk

[GoBills808]

1 hour ago, HappyDays said:

 

I don't disagree with a lot of what you said here. It just comes down to priorities. Like I agree that scouting contested catch specialists is not a good use of resources. But most offenses have a pass catcher that can make them from time to time, in addition to whatever other receiving skills they have. We don't have anybody that can make contested catches at all. Which means if the intended target doesn't flat out beat his coverage man on the route, or isn't schemed wide open, the pass has no chance of being completed. That's an unusual weakness for a supposedly championship caliber offense.

 

The OL is better than it was last year but it's not really a strength of the team. There are still a few too many 1v1 losses. The protection scheme still gets broken down by stunts and blitzes too frequently. And I'm fine with this... I don't think a team needs the best OL in football to compete for a championship. But I struggle to make the leap from "the OL is maybe slightly above average now" to "the offensive personnel isn't as bad as people say."

 

Ditto for talking about Cook. Having a top 5ish RB is a luxury. It isn't the engine that drives championship offenses. And running the offense through a RB inevitably creates that low margin for error. I've noticed this year that holding calls more than ever before in the Josh Allen era are killing drives (I don't have stats on this, but that's how it has felt). In the past I always felt confident even on 3rd and 15, but this year it feels like drives are DOA with any kind of negative play. I don't think this is a coincidence. We are having to paper over some pretty large weaknesses in skill position personnel, and those weaknesses get exposed quickly with the slightest misstep. The low margin for error is still there... Brady has just done a better job of papering over it than Dorsey did. And if you agree with me about the low margin for error, you must agree there are personnel issues creating it.

 

I know I'm a broken record on this but the lack of a true go-to #2 pass catcher is still a massive problem for the team. Every recent Super Bowl participant has had a #2 pass catcher that is much better than Davis (or Kincaid for that matter, who as a rookie is still learning). The worst in recent years was JuJu Smith-Schuster for the Chiefs last year. That's the floor and we are not meeting that floor right now. I think Kincaid can get there as early as next year, but talking about this season only it is a noticeable missing element for our offense.

 

And this is a talking point I never thought I would be bringing up this year, but now I am concerned that our #1 pass catcher is not at the caliber of other team's #1s. The Diggs that we've seen in the past month especially has not been even a top 10 WR.

 

If that trend with Diggs continues, we're running an offense with a slightly above average OL, where our best skill player is a RB, our best WR is somewhere outside the top 10, our 2nd best pass catcher is a rookie TE, and everyone else is a JAG or worse. That does not come close to fitting the profile of a championship offense.

 

There is still a path to us winning the Super Bowl. Allen plays elite football the rest of the way, the defense plays like a top 5 defense, the run game continues to look like a top 5 run offense, Bass gets over whatever his issue has been this year, and we get a few bounces of the ball to go our way. But it's frustrating that the path isn't easier than that solely because Brandon Beane failed to bring in a substantial upgrade to our skill position personnel.

we don't really prioritize pass catchers and it shows up wrt elite tools, that's why you watch our wideouts and think lack of contested catch ability...it's the kind of athleticism that typically goes in early rounds

 

i'm struggling to think of another team rn that doesn't have at least one first round pick in their wr room and we dont even have a second lol

[HappyDays]

19 minutes ago, Big Turk said:

 

Our offensive line is not slightly above average...by many metrics it is one of the best in the NFL. Allen is the least sacked QB in the NFL.  Cook is averaging over 5 YPC, not much you can complain about with them really.

 

 

 

 

 

That first chart is saying the Eagles and Lions have worse pass protection than the Dolphins? That is so far removed from reality it makes me feel justified to ignore the entire thing. OL is really hard to grade in any kind of objective way. But I've watched enough football this year to know the Eagles and Lions are the two elite OLs in the league.

 

To be fair I know that I said "slightly above average" but I will acknowledge I meant that in a subjective sense, not in an objective sense that contextualizes it with the rest of the league. Truth be told the line between good and bad OLs has been muddied quite a bit this year. The Lions and Eagles for my money are the only dominant OLs. Giants, Panthers, and Jets OLs are so bad they make the offense dysfunctional. Everyone else for the most part is kind of in this jumbled up blur of mediocrity. You can draw a few lines between teams here and there but nothing substantial. I would classify most OLs this year as "average to slightly above average" in the sense that most are not particularly good or bad.

 

I think OL in general has been somewhat of a red herring on this board in recent years. It isn't the thing that needs to be elite to make a championship run. The Bengals went to the Super Bowl with a bad OL. The Dolphins this year have a bad OL and are still the most explosive offense in the league. The 49ers have the best LT in football but mediocrity the rest of the way down and still have the best overall offense in the league. You really just need a "good enough" OL to make a championship run, and the Bills certainly have that, but more importantly you also need other pieces around the QB that the Bills very clearly do not have.

[Sherlock Holmes]

22 hours ago, finn said:

One WR away from the best offense in the league, since Allen > Purdy.

 

Might still be good enough to go all the way, though. 

Purdy and Josh gonna be battling for MVP and Lombardis for the next two decades

Edited December 21, 2023 by Sherlock Holmes

[Big Turk]

11 minutes ago, HappyDays said:

 

That first chart is saying the Eagles and Lions have worse pass protection than the Dolphins? That is so far removed from reality it makes me feel justified to ignore the entire thing. OL is really hard to grade in any kind of objective way. But I've watched enough football this year to know the Eagles and Lions are the two elite OLs in the league.

 

To be fair I know that I said "slightly above average" but I will acknowledge I meant that in a subjective sense, not in an objective sense that contextualizes it with the rest of the league. Truth be told the line between good and bad OLs has been muddied quite a bit this year. The Lions and Eagles for my money are the only dominant OLs. Giants, Panthers, and Jets OLs are so bad they make the offense dysfunctional. Everyone else for the most part is kind of in this jumbled up blur of mediocrity. You can draw a few lines between teams here and there but nothing substantial. I would classify most OLs this year as "average to slightly above average" in the sense that most are not particularly good or bad.

 

I think OL in general has been somewhat of a red herring on this board in recent years. It isn't the thing that needs to be elite to make a championship run. The Bengals went to the Super Bowl with a bad OL. The Dolphins this year have a bad OL and are still the most explosive offense in the league. The 49ers have the best LT in football but mediocrity the rest of the way down and still have the best overall offense in the league. You really just need a "good enough" OL to make a championship run, and the Bills certainly have that, but more importantly you also need other pieces around the QB that the Bills very clearly do not have.

 

They have the great equalizer in Allen. On any given day Allen can be so good that it doesn't matter what the other team does, they cannot win.  My hope is that one day that will happen in a Super Bowl game and any of the other flaws won't matter for one day.

 

6 minutes ago, Sherlock Holmes said:

Purdy and Josh gonna be battling for MVP and Lombardis for the next two decades

 

Purdy will flame out as soon as he doesn't have an all-world supporting cast around him. I mean look at what happened when he simply was missing his LT and Deebo this year.  He looked terrible.

Edited December 21, 2023 by Big Turk

[GunnerBill]

9 minutes ago, HappyDays said:

 

I think OL in general has been somewhat of a red herring on this board in recent years. It isn't the thing that needs to be elite to make a championship run. The Bengals went to the Super Bowl with a bad OL. The Dolphins this year have a bad OL and are still the most explosive offense in the league. The 49ers have the best LT in football but mediocrity the rest of the way down and still have the best overall offense in the league. You really just need a "good enough" OL to make a championship run, and the Bills certainly have that, but more importantly you also need other pieces around the QB that the Bills very clearly do not have.

 

While I agree - you don't need a dominant OL, I don't agree it has been a red herring the past two years. The Bills have had bottom feeding offensive lines in 2021 and 2022. The guard play has been positively disgusting. They didn't in 2020 and they haven't this year. Both of those lines were probably a bit above average. I am absolutely fine with that. But the line has been a major issue the last two years. Our record in one score games we lost where our OFFENSE had the ball last in the past 2 seasons was atrocious (unlike this year where it has been the D at the end that has failed more than it has succeeded) and almost all those potential gane winning drives that failed had a major offensive line breakdown that got us behind the sticks. 

 

That isn't to say I don't agree with you on the resource allocation at receiver. I do. I have been on receiver in round 1 the last two years. I likely will be again although tok early for me to really be on this class it looks a decent one. Gabe Davis has been a really good draft pick. His production from a 4th rounder is way above 4th round average. But you can't keep hoping to strike bronze (let alone gold or silver) with Davis, Shakir and Shorter. Eventually you gotta take a shot at a guy early. 

Edited December 21, 2023 by GunnerBill

[HappyDays]

15 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

While I agree - you don't need a dominant OL, I don't agree it has been a red herring the past two years. The Bills have had bottom feeding offensive lines in 2021 and 2022. The guard play has been positively disgusting. They didn't in 2020 and they haven't this year. Both of those lines were probably a bit above average. I am absolutely fine with that. But the line has been a major issue the last two years. Our record in one score games we lost where our OFFENSE had the ball last in the past 2 seasons was atrocious (unlike this year where it has been the D at the end that has failed more than it has succeeded) and almost all those potential gane winning drives that failed had a major offensive line breakdown that got us behind the sticks. 

 

That isn't to say I don't agree with you on the resource allocation at receiver. I do. I have been on receiver in round 1 the last two years. I likely will be again although tok early for me to really be on this class it looks a decent one. Gabe Davis has been a really good draft pick. His production from a 4th rounder is way above 4th round average. But you can't keep hoping to strike bronze (let alone gold or silver) with Davis, Shakir and Shorter. Eventually you gotta take a shot at a guy early. 

 

I guess what I mean is that it's easier to hide a below average OL than it is to hide a below average group of weapons. As evidenced by the fact that below average OLs have made it to the Super Bowl in recent years, but below average groups of weapons have not.

[FireChans]

1 hour ago, GoBills808 said:

we don't really prioritize pass catchers and it shows up wrt elite tools, that's why you watch our wideouts and think lack of contested catch ability...it's the kind of athleticism that typically goes in early rounds

 

i'm struggling to think of another team rn that doesn't have at least one first round pick in their wr room and we dont even have a second lol

It’s actually insane to me. 
 

I was advocating for the Steelers model of day 2 picks every other year for WR’s for a stable rotation of cheap, decent pass catchers with upside probably 3 years ago. 
 

Even if they took one in the first round every 2-3 years, that would be fine.

 

Instead, they’ve done neither. That has been the biggest flaw of this regime in the Josh Allen era BY FAR.