The "McDermott Handicap" and hopefully a solution

[Mark80]

5 hours ago, Slack_in_MA said:

I heard we won.

 

I also heard we gave up 17 points to Patrick Mahomes, on the road.

[Success]

I liked the way McD was calling the D at the end, even though it had some mixed results.  It feels like he tends to go in "prevent" mode if we had a lead, but we were blitzing almost the whole time on that last Chiefs drive & playing very aggressive.

 

The issue w/ the game was Brady's playcalling on our last drive.  I thought he called a good game overall, but when the clock was at 2:12, 3 passes in a row, allowing KC to preserve their remaining timeouts and still have 2 minutes, was not the way to go.

 

[Mark80]

5 hours ago, McBean said:

The muppets are salivating and out in full force because of the “win.”

 

Reality is, McClap scratched a lotto ticket last night and won.

 

bailed out by toney and the refs for once again, more crappy coaching decisions.

 

The facts are still this:

 

1. he’s a horrible HC who continues to show he can’t make proper in game decisions.

 

2. Has this team still outside looking in in regards to the playoffs. Still a stretch we get in and besides, we have to go on the road if we do. You trust McDermott to help us win 3 road games? I sure as heck don’t.

 

3. Lost draft position 

 

4. The win today insured he is coming back next year.

 

This isn’t good folks. Some of us were willing to sacrifice a few games this year for long term success. 
 

too many “want it now” short term thinkers.

 

Sad!

 

The facts are also this:

 

1.  Over 60% winning percentage.

2. Took a joke of a franchise and culture and turned it into a perennial contender.

3. Wins at least 1 playoff game the last 3 seasons in a row.

4. Drafted Josh Allen instead of Josh Rosen and was in charge while he went from raw, Wyoming Josh, to a top 5 QB in the league (top 2 IMO).

5. Developed Hyde and Poyer into All-Pro Safeties.

6. Drafted and Developed White and Milano into All-Pros.

7. Drafted and developed one of the best nickle CBs in the game, Johnson.

8. Attracted high value FA including Miller, Floyd, Jones.

9. Has improved in analytical usage, most notably, going for it on 4th downs.

10. We are in every single game are rarely are beat by more than one score. 

11. Took the Bills to the Playoffs with Tyrod freaking Taylor as our QB.

 

Dude needs to learn how to better utilize his challenges and timeouts, no doubt, but he sure has hell has way more positives than the few negatives you babies always cry about.  I could not care less what Trent Murphy and Quinton Spain type scrubs have to say about a former employer who fired their worthless butts.  Especially when they are too chicken to even put their names to it.

 

Edited December 11, 2023 by Mark80

[Big Turk]

30 minutes ago, peterpan said:

Yes I was well aware of the fake they ran.  And it was surprising considering how hard the Chiefs had been crashing on the screen all game.

 

I also am well aware that josh has the option to hand it inside to cook on those plays and did that throughout the game too.  

 

And all things considered I still think it was a stupid risky call in this game at that time.  

So no one else has put up what their guess at the MCd Handicap number should be?  -2.5?? Anyone? Bueller?

 

 

I think you'd probably come to the same conclusion with most coaches.  Reid used to famously be inept with clock management until he suddenly wasn't. Carroll throwing the ball on the 1 yard line with Wilson in the SB when he has Marshawn Lynch to hand it off to. 

 

It's like you act as if every single other coach makes the right decision all the time with 24  hours of hindsight to look back on and it's honestly moistly nonsense because in every game you see coaches make dumb decisions looking back on things

Edited December 11, 2023 by Big Turk

[Tenhigh]

7 hours ago, Mark80 said:

 

The facts are also this:

 

1.  Over 60% winning percentage.

2. Took a joke of a franchise and culture and turned it into a perennial contender.

3. Wins at least 1 playoff game the last 3 seasons in a row.

4. Drafted Josh Allen instead of Josh Rosen and was in charge while he went from raw, Wyoming Josh, to a top 5 QB in the league (top 2 IMO).

5. Developed Hyde and Poyer into All-Pro Safeties.

6. Drafted and Developed White and Milano into All-Pros.

7. Drafted and developed one of the best nickle CBs in the game, Johnson.

8. Attracted high value FA including Miller, Floyd, Jones.

9. Has improved in analytical usage, most notably, going for it on 4th downs.

10. We are in every single game are rarely are beat by more than one score. 

11. Took the Bills to the Playoffs with Tyrod freaking Taylor as our QB.

 

Dude needs to learn how to better utilize his challenges and timeouts, no doubt, but he sure has hell has way more positives than the few negatives you babies always cry about.  I could not care less what Trent Murphy and Quinton Spain type scrubs have to say about a former employer who fired their worthless butts.  Especially when they are too chicken to even put their names to it.

 

If McD relinquishes the ability to:

 

 *Throw the challenge flag without someone's else's approval

 *Call defensive time outs 

 *Make any defensive calls after the 2 minute warning 

 

 I'd extend him for 5 years.

 

https://www.twobillsdrive.com/community/topic/251336-carolina-hires-new-coach/?do=findComment&comment=8750723

Edited December 12, 2023 by Tenhigh

[Teddy KGB]

Gross numbers

Don’t want this man around pending an immaculate finish to the season 

 

 

[Teddy KGB]

Mchittheroadjack

[ToGoGo]

What I see is a team that will soon revert to their mean as a playoff team. 
 

If anything that data shows me how much better we are than the others. 
 

Not sure if you realize but point differentials like that require high performance on both sides of the ball. 

[Bferra13]

2 minutes ago, ToGoGo said:

What I see is a team that will soon revert to their mean as a playoff team. 
 

If anything that data shows me how much better we are than the others. 
 

Not sure if you realize but point differentials like that require high performance on both sides of the ball. 

First thing I thought too lol.

[JGMcD2]

21 minutes ago, Teddy KGB said:

Gross numbers

Don’t want this man around pending an immaculate finish to the season 

 

 

Sooooo it’s likely that the clock will strike 12 on those other teams and they’ll turn into a pumpkin? Meanwhile we pick up steam and get to go to the ball? 

[HurlyBurly51]

24 minutes ago, Teddy KGB said:

Gross numbers

Don’t want this man around pending an immaculate finish to the season 

 

 

How does this support shitcanning McD?

[section122]

It shows me what I already know. The Bills are competitive in every game and don't get blown out.

 

This isnt the gotcha you think it is... in fact it's quite the opposite. 

 

The Bills are in every game even when they don't have their best. Their biggest loss is by 6.

 

broncos lost by 50

Steelers lost by 24

Colts lost by 20

Bengals lost by 24

Texans lost by 24... twice

 

 

[Ed_Formerly_of_Roch]

I'd imagine the other AFC teams hope the Bills don't make the playoffs as looking at that list the only team close in talent is the Bengals, but that's only when you put Burrow back on the field.

[ChronicAndKnuckles]

10 hours ago, Royale with Cheese said:

On the road at the Super Bowl champs house in front of a national audience.

 

I don’t like a lot of things about McDermott but some people are just vile towards him.  Its such a childish act.

Preach ! 

[Ethan in Cleveland]

McD is the same as he has always been. His defense pads stats against terrible QBs. 

 

But give him some credit. His D held KC to 17 and forced two turnovers.  Then got a stop when it mattered after being given a gift. If I'm going to rip him for Denver,Philly, and Pats loss, then I have to offer some praise for 17 points on the road. 

[QCity]

Yeah I don't think these numbers are the indictment you are looking for.

[Royale with Cheese]

3 minutes ago, Ethan in Cleveland said:

McD is the same as he has always been. His defense pads stats against terrible QBs. 

 

But give him some credit. His D held KC to 17 and forced two turnovers.  Then got a stop when it mattered after being given a gift. If I'm going to rip him for Denver,Philly, and Pats loss, then I have to offer some praise for 17 points on the road. 

 

Every team does.  We have played a 1st place schedule 3 years in a row now. 

[WotAGuy]

3 minutes ago, Ethan in Cleveland said:

McD is the same as he has always been. His defense pads stats against terrible QBs. 

 

But give him some credit. His D held KC to 17 and forced two turnovers.  Then got a stop when it mattered after being given a gift. If I'm going to rip him for Denver,Philly, and Pats loss, then I have to offer some praise for 17 points on the road. 

Miami has been held to 17 3 times this season and 19 twice. Denver held them to 9. It’s not a particularly impressive feat this season, but the D held them after getting a gift penalty at the end. 
 

The real test will be outscoring Dallas. 

[PBF81]

Trends and patterns.  

 

What happened in the first four weeks is much less relevant than what happened more recently.  

 

What's our PD over our last 9 games?  

 

 

[Rocbillsfan1]

57 minutes ago, Teddy KGB said:

Gross numbers

Don’t want this man around pending an immaculate finish to the season 

 

 

I get they won last night but they are something like 9-21 in close games in the past 3 years. That's coaching.

47 minutes ago, ToGoGo said:

What I see is a team that will soon revert to their mean as a playoff team. 
 

If anything that data shows me how much better we are than the others. 
 

Not sure if you realize but point differentials like that require high performance on both sides of the ball. 

And also extreme amounts of poor situational awareness which comes down to preperation and knowing how to finish games. This coach doesn't have it.

[Ralonzo]

14 hours ago, entropyrules said:

a bit off topic but didn't want to start another thread. The OP mentioned those swing pass failures. It seems like they never work Has one worked this season?) - can someone explain why they keep trying them game after game? is there something just wrong about the way the play is set-up/executed or is the way the Bills set up the O so its obvious to the D a swong pass is coming. Seems like a consitent fail-would rather them run straight into the line for 2 yard gain.

 

It's a subset but somehow when other teams set it up they have 5 or 6 blockers on max 3 Buffalo defenders. When the Bills run it they have a TE and a couple receivers vs 4-5-6 defenders. The play works when you overload and they're in a zone and you outman them on the edge, but it works so well against the Bills as a zone heavy team, and doesn't seem to work for the Bills because it's telegraphed and/or run straight into man coverage.

[The Jokeman]

12 minutes ago, WotAGuy said:

Miami has been held to 17 3 times this season and 19 twice. Denver held them to 9. It’s not a particularly impressive feat this season, but the D held them after getting a gift penalty at the end. 
 

The real test will be outscoring Dallas. 

And that's just it in most cases puts you in a bad position. Instead stopping the opposition allows games to be easier to win. That's why we've been adding defense since 13 seconds. It's why the old adage is defense wins championships rings true. What I hate about yesterday's win in so many people think the Chiefs lost because of the Offside play. Truth be told they still had 3 downs after that to get in FG range or score a TD. But guess what? The Bills defense held the Chiefs to 0 yards on those last 3 plays to win the game.

Edited December 12, 2023 by The Jokeman

[ToGoGo]

4 minutes ago, Rocbillsfan1 said:

I get they won last night but they are something like 9-21 in close games in the past 3 years. That's coaching.

And also extreme amounts of poor situational awareness which comes down to preperation and knowing how to finish games. This coach doesn't have it.

You’re reaching. There’s always a negative reason why a team with that kind of point differential is near .500. 
 

It always evens itself out eventually. 

[Rocbillsfan1]

everyone is happy we got the W but the end of that game was an absolute mess and really not shocking considering Mcdermott teams always find a way to do something stupid. I've never seen a team so consistently be so poor at situational awareness. It's not about winning the game, its' about winning small battles here and there that help build confidence and a winning attitude. I just don't get any sense of confidence with Mcdermott teams. 

[Rocbillsfan1]

4 minutes ago, ToGoGo said:

You’re reaching. There’s always a negative reason why a team with that kind of point differential is near .500. 
 

It always evens itself out eventually. 

whatever you gotta tell yourself. I cannot beliece we are still in the denial stage of well it's just luck and everything will just magically even out lol. 

[WotAGuy]

15 minutes ago, Rocbillsfan1 said:

everyone is happy we got the W but the end of that game was an absolute mess and really not shocking considering Mcdermott teams always find a way to do something stupid. I've never seen a team so consistently be so poor at situational awareness. It's not about winning the game, its' about winning small battles here and there that help build confidence and a winning attitude. I just don't get any sense of confidence with Mcdermott teams. 

You know, perhaps this is the reason why McDermott has kept Von out there so much. This defense needs a leader who has actually experienced success at the highest level. Even if his play has been slow to ramp up, Von’s presence may outweigh the limited performance. 
 

 

 

Edited December 12, 2023 by WotAGuy

[HappyDays]

15 hours ago, McBean said:

Reality is, McClap scratched a lotto ticket last night and won.

 

bailed out by toney and the refs for once again, more crappy coaching decisions.

 

There is some truth to this. It didn't feel like we really earned the win yesterday. Then again it didn't feel like KC really earned it, so 🤷‍♂️

 

What frustrates me most about McDermott is that for a defensive head coach we don't get as big an advantage on defense as you'd hope. Spagnuolo is pretty clearly a better defensive schemer and the Chiefs get him as just a coordinator. All of our blitzes are telegraphed and easily diagnosed and picked up by the opposing OL. He's a fine defensive mind, just not an elite one. So what advantage are we getting from him as a head coach?

[nedboy7]

I'm afraid the NFL's way of refereeing the Bills wont change after McD is gone.

 

 

2 minutes ago, HappyDays said:

 

There is some truth to this. It didn't feel like we really earned the win yesterday. Then again it didn't feel like KC really earned it, so 🤷‍♂️

 

What frustrates me most about McDermott is that for a defensive head coach we don't get as big an advantage on defense as you'd hope. Spagnuolo is pretty clearly a better defensive schemer and the Chiefs get him as just a coordinator. All of our blitzes are telegraphed and easily diagnosed and picked up by the opposing OL. He's a fine defensive mind, just not an elite one. So what advantage are we getting from him as a head coach?

 

I think this season specifically the D looked much improved initially.  As the injuries mounted it was hard to maintain that level.  We did lose possibly our top 3 guys on defense.  Milano is a game changer alone. 

 

 

Edited December 12, 2023 by nedboy7

[Mikie2times]

10 minutes ago, ToGoGo said:

You’re reaching. There’s always a negative reason why a team with that kind of point differential is near .500. 
 

It always evens itself out eventually. 

2022- The Bills were #1 in DVOA and not by a small amount. Number 2, 3 and 4 all went to the conference championship and two of those teams went to the Super Bowl with KC being the winner 

 

2021- The Bills were #2 in DVOA. 3rd, 5th, and 6th went to the conference championship. The Bengals were a historic outlier. The Super Bowl was won by the Rams who ranked 3rd.

 

2020- The Bills were #3 in DVOA. 2, 3, 4, and 5 went to the conference championship. #4 Tampa won it. 
 

The Bills have 1, 2, and 3 finishes the last three years and we have been to one conference championship. We drastically underperform against DVOA. Nearly to historic levels when factoring in three years of output. 99% of cases I would agree with point differential eventually evening out as samples grow but normal trends like that don’t apply to this team. We never  over-perform against our main stats. Anybody who has followed advanced stats of this team for

multiple years is aware of what I’m talking about. Happened with EPA for most the season this year.

[HappyDays]

4 minutes ago, nedboy7 said:

I think this season specifically the D looked much improved initially. 

 

Meh. Holding Miami to 20 seemed extremely impressive at first but now everyone is doing it.

 

A WLB, even an elite one, should not be the difference.

 

Yesterday it didn't feel like we really stopped KC with our defensive scheme all that much. Individual great plays by Epenesa and Benford caued huge turnovers. KC pass catchers screwed up a bunch. None of the criticisms against McDermott's defensive play calling got answered IMO.

[nedboy7]

3 minutes ago, HappyDays said:

 

Meh. Holding Miami to 20 seemed extremely impressive at first but now everyone is doing it.

 

A WLB, even an elite one, should not be the difference.

 

Yesterday it didn't feel like we really stopped KC with our defensive scheme all that much. Individual great plays by Epenesa and Benford caued huge turnovers. KC pass catchers screwed up a bunch. None of the criticisms against McDermott's defensive play calling got answered IMO.

 

The big plays are key to McD's defense.  Milano and White to a degree add more of that. 

Miami is not being held to 20.  They are #2 in the NFL in points. 

We are gonna beat the #1 offense this week! 

[HappyDays]

2 hours ago, HurlyBurly51 said:

How does this support shitcanning McD?

 

Because that wild point differential chart is a representation of our close game failures. And head coaches make their money in close games. We are talented enough with an elite QB that we have the luxury of being able to blow out several teams. Other wildcard contenders don't have that luxury but still have the same record as us because their coaching staffs are winning in high leverage moments.

[LABILLBACKER]

1 hour ago, ToGoGo said:

You’re reaching. There’s always a negative reason why a team with that kind of point differential is near .500. 
 

It always evens itself out eventually. 

Exactly,  point differential is so over rated. You don't get 2 wins for one blowout.  We just flat out lost too many close games to teams we should have handled.

[Teddy KGB]

19 hours ago, ChronicAndKnuckles said:

I am sour on McDermott too, but he had a solid defensive game plan and held the Chiefs to 17 points. You gotta give credit where it’s due. 

the 2023 Chiefs are not who you think they are, they scored 17 points combined in two games Vs the Broncos and lost to the Packers last week 

 

These wr’s are hot garbage and just cost them another game. 

 

8 hours ago, HurlyBurly51 said:

How does this support shitcanning McD?

 

How is this a question ? 

Edited December 12, 2023 by Teddy KGB

[TrentEdwardsCheckDownOn4th]

I don't think this is being talked about enough but why did McDermott accept the defensive holding penalty with 3:04 left ? 

 

Josh Allen scrambled for a 13 yard first down to the 48 yard line. There was 3:04 left and the dolphins had 1 timeout down by 7 pts. 

 

If he declines the penalty the clock would have continued to run. At that point an extra 5 yards is not nearly as important as running an extra 40 seconds off the clock. 

 

This decision almost came back to bite us in the ass. The Dolphins started their final drive with 1:53 left on the clock vs. 1:13 if the penalty were declined. 

 

If the Dolphins scored on that final drive we would be talking about another McDermott in game miscue.

[GunnerBill]

24 minutes ago, TrentEdwardsCheckDownOn4th said:

I don't think this is being talked about enough but why did McDermott accept the defensive holding penalty with 3:04 left ? 

 

Josh Allen scrambled for a 13 yard first down to the 48 yard line. There was 3:04 left and the dolphins had 1 timeout down by 7 pts. 

 

If he declines the penalty the clock would have continued to run. At that point an extra 5 yards is not nearly as important as running an extra 40 seconds off the clock. 

 

This decision almost came back to bite us in the ass. The Dolphins started their final drive with 1:53 left on the clock vs. 1:13 if the penalty were declined. 

 

If the Dolphins scored on that final drive we would be talking about another McDermott in game miscue.

 

Inside the final five minutes the clock stops on a penalty. Even if it is declined. 

[TrentEdwardsCheckDownOn4th]

3 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

Inside the final five minutes the clock stops on a penalty. Even if it is declined. 

Ok my mistake then. I was listening to a recap of the game and the analyst said otherwise. Seems like a silly rule that could be exploited. 

 

For example,  if a team picks up a first down with 1:50 seconds left and the defense has 1 timeout left the game would be over as the offense could run the clock out. Instead , if after the player gets the first down the defense commits a personal foul the clock would stop ? And now the offense could theoretically get the ball back with about 25 seconds. Mind Blown

[GunnerBill]

1 minute ago, TrentEdwardsCheckDownOn4th said:

Ok my mistake then. I was listening to a recap of the game and the analyst said otherwise. Seems like a silly rule that could be exploited. 

 

For example,  if a team picks up a first down with 1:50 seconds left and the defense has 1 timeout left the game would be over as the offense could run the clock out. Instead , if after the player gets the first down the defense commits a personal foul the clock would stop ? And now the offense could theoretically get the ball back with about 25 seconds. Mind Blown

 

Theoretically, yes. But equally officials are pretty dialled in to teams intentionally trying to manipulate the clock. 

[TrentEdwardsCheckDownOn4th]

12 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

Theoretically, yes. But equally officials are pretty dialled in to teams intentionally trying to manipulate the clock. 

There doesn't appear to be any rule against it. Below is from an article after the recent rule change in 2020. These rules were put into place after belicheck manipulated the clock by intentionally taking a false start. But this was on offense. There's nothing in the rule book about manipulating the clock on defense. And how would a ref know a face Mask or hands to the face,  for example, is manipulating the clock:

 

"The change approved Thursday adds a new line that simply says that the clock will now stop if the offense commits any accepted dead-ball foul at any point during the fourth quarter or overtime:

If the game clock is stopped after a down in which there was a foul by either team, following enforcement or declination of a penalty, the game clock will start as if the foul had not occurred, except that the clock will start on the snap if:

(1) the foul occurs after the two-minute warning of the first half;
(2) the foul occurs inside the last five minutes of the second half; or
(3) the offense commits a dead-ball foul during the fourth quarter or overtime that is accepted;
or
(4) a specific rule prescribes otherwise."

 

Edited January 9 by TrentEdwardsCheckDownOn4th

[GunnerBill]

1 hour ago, TrentEdwardsCheckDownOn4th said:

There doesn't appear to be any rule against it. Below is from an article after the recent rule change in 2020. These rules were put into place after belicheck manipulated the clock by intentionally taking a false start. But this was on offense. There's nothing in the rule book about manipulating the clock on defense. And how would a ref know a face Mask or hands to the face,  for example, is manipulating the clock:

 

"The change approved Thursday adds a new line that simply says that the clock will now stop if the offense commits any accepted dead-ball foul at any point during the fourth quarter or overtime:

If the game clock is stopped after a down in which there was a foul by either team, following enforcement or declination of a penalty, the game clock will start as if the foul had not occurred, except that the clock will start on the snap if:

(1) the foul occurs after the two-minute warning of the first half;
(2) the foul occurs inside the last five minutes of the second half; or
(3) the offense commits a dead-ball foul during the fourth quarter or overtime that is accepted;
or
(4) a specific rule prescribes otherwise."

 

 

No I don't think there is a rule. It is one of those things where I just think officials are pretty live to it. But it has to be the specific circumstance you set out right, it only works is a team commits an intentional foul right after a team has converted a first down. If you are trying to stop a 1st down (i.e. in the play) then you don't want to commit a foul because your preference is stop the conversion from a clock perspective. And after 2nd or 3rd down it gives the offense an extra down. So it really has to be an after the play penalty on a first down conversion and I think the reality is a ref would only throw a flag if it was a potential ejection type offence. And not sure a player is going to risk a suspension and/or being hit in the pocket in these circumstances. 

 

If a team really tried to abuse it that might trigger a rule change, that is usually how these things work.