Road to the Playoffs

[D. L. Hot-Flamethrower]

There is still a path for Miami to miss the playoffs completely! All starts with losses to Dal, Bal and Buf.

[stlbills13]

10-7 is a little scary after this week's games. We didn't get a ton of help. Just win out

[DapperCam]

So for the final game of the season to be for the division, the following needs to happen over the next 2 games.

- Dolphins can’t win both games.

- Bills can’t lose both games.

- If the Bills win 1 game, the Dolphins have to lose both games.

- No matter what they do, the Dolphins can’t be eliminated from the division before our game.

 

I think the most likely scenario is the Bills win both games and Dolphins drop one of their next two.

[Success]

If we can't take care of the Chargers & Pats - we simply don't deserve it.  We have had way more than our share of losing games we should win this season.

 

And then it just comes down to the Phins.  Which is kind of fun.

 

[SageAgainstTheMachine]

Go Ravens.  Send the Jaguars into the 8-6 fracas.

[Drew21PA]

Buffalo against the world

 

NO ONE - NOE ONE

 

WANTS THE BUFFALO. JILLS RIGHT NOW!!!

 

let’s go!

[thenorthremembers]

Continue to think the Bills need to win out.  Too many variables to deal with otherwise.   

[Scott7975]

1 hour ago, HappyDays said:

 

There is technically a path for that not to happen, but it's less than .1% likely. Basically the Dolphins would have to beat the Cowboys and Ravens, Bengals would have to win out, Colts would have to win out, Browns would have to lose to only the Bengals but win their other 2 games. And probably some other games would have to go a certain way too.

 

Yeah, I can't see the Bills missing the playoffs if they win out.  They lose one game all bets are off though.  There would be many ways they don't make it.

[BigDingus]

23 minutes ago, Scott7975 said:

 

Yeah, I can't see the Bills missing the playoffs if they win out.  They lose one game all bets are off though.  There would be many ways they don't make it.

 

There were surprisingly a lot of ways the Bills could've made the playoffs at 10-7 & not winning the division, but adding any more conference losses in the next 2 weeks would really hurt.

[djp14150]

34 minutes ago, D. L. Hot-Flamethrower said:

There is still a path for Miami to miss the playoffs completely! All starts with losses to Dal, Bal and Buf.

At 10-7…yes.

 

the reason buffalo isn’t yet win out and in is because you can have 4 non division winners with 11 wins.

 

Cincinati, Cleveland, 2nd place HOU/JAX/IND all can end with 11 wins. Buffalo loses tiebreakers going 4-1 vs  NFC thus losing h2h or conf record tiebreakers..

 

if Cleveland lost to Chicago then buffalo could control their own fate by win out and get a playoff spot.

 

cle/ cin play in week 18 so if Clevrland lost then with both at 8-5, then only one could have 12 wins. Since CLE won they both can finish with 12 wins.

 

HOU/ IND play in week 18. Both at 8 wins. Only 1 can have 11 wins. Jacksonville has tiebreakers against both.

 

BUF/ MIA could mean winner gets division, loser plays golf.

 

it can get very crazy if you get some loses and wild cards are for teams at 10 wins.

 

 

 

 

[TFBillsfan]

If the Bills win out and MIA loses once, the Bills win the division. In that scenario I don’t see them having a better seed than 4th as the Jags have the head to head tiebreaker. They’d have to lose 3 of 4 for us to get the 3 seed which I don’t see happening. In this scenario, we’d most likely play CLE and then at Balt if we win.  I don’t know you would be the 5th seed between CLE and MIA in this scenario.

[Warcodered]

21 minutes ago, TFBillsfan said:

If the Bills win out and MIA loses once, the Bills win the division. In that scenario I don’t see them having a better seed than 4th as the Jags have the head to head tiebreaker. They’d have to lose 3 of 4 for us to get the 3 seed which I don’t see happening. In this scenario, we’d most likely play CLE and then at Balt if we win.  I don’t know you would be the 5th seed between CLE and MIA in this scenario.

I don't care about the seeding just open the damn door and we can start clubbing these baby seals.

[DBilz2500]

Any plausible scenarios where we win next 2 games, get to 10-6 and have at least a wildcard berth clinched before Fins game? 

[Success]

Every time I look at the schedules of the teams tied w/ & ahead of us - my brain twists into a pretzel.

 

Win out, and we're definitely in.  10-7 seems closer to 50/50 than a longshot.  But who knows.  We need to beat the Chargers and Pats, and see how things are looking going into the last week.

 

 

 

[Playoffs?]

4 minutes ago, Success said:

Every time I look at the schedules of the teams tied w/ & ahead of us - my brain twists into a pretzel.

 

Win out, and we're definitely in.  10-7 seems closer to 50/50 than a longshot.  But who knows.  We need to beat the Chargers and Pats, and see how things are looking going into the last week.

 

 

 

I think as stated above, we technically could win out and not make it in. If Miami beats both Dallas and Baltimore… and if some other things shake out with the teams in the hunt, we could technically get knocked out even if we win out… I think..

[TFBillsfan]

Ideally next week the Bills could move up to the 6th seed with a win against the Chargers, Bengals loss to Pitt, Texan loss to CLE and Indy loss to ATL.

 

While we are at it, MIA losses to Dallas. 

 

[strive_for_five_guy]

12 minutes ago, DBilz2500 said:

Any plausible scenarios where we win next 2 games, get to 10-6 and have at least a wildcard berth clinched before Fins game? 

I can get it to happen with the playoff machine, but we’d need a lot to go our way in next couple of weeks.  This weekend was killer in terms of Bengals, Texans and Browns not losing.

[CodeMonkey]

2 minutes ago, strive_for_five_guy said:

I can get it to happen with the playoff machine, but we’d need a lot to go our way in next couple of weeks.  This weekend was killer in terms of Bengals, Texans and Browns not losing.

Bills can only control their own games.  They won what on paper were the hard games.  Just win baby.

[Playoffs?]

The absolute key is that Miami MUST lose at least one of their games against Dallas and Baltimore… and we MUST win out 

 

(If Miami loses out, we can afford to lose one more game, but we still must beat Miami.)

[Big Blitz]

6 minutes ago, strive_for_five_guy said:

I can get it to happen with the playoff machine, but we’d need a lot to go our way in next couple of weeks.  This weekend was killer in terms of Bengals, Texans and Browns not losing.

 

I feel like those results have essentially made winning out the only way in.  
 

3 WC teams will be at least 10-7 and I’m not sure how we have the tiebreaker if we’re one of say 4 or even 5 teams that finish at that.  
 

The Texans win today is just so inexcusable.  

[major]

1 minute ago, Playoffs? said:

The absolute key is that Miami MUST lose at least one of their games against Dallas and Baltimore… and we MUST win out 

 

(If Miami loses out, we can afford to lose one more game, but we still must beat Miami.)

Miami will lose one 

[sven233]

Obviously our entire season is predicated on winning out.  The games we needed to go our way this week pretty much all went the wrong way.  I haven't used a Playoff generator yet, but based on the number of teams at 8-6, I don't think there is any way for us to go into week 18 with a Playoff spot locked up.  Obviously, it would be really nice if we could head into that game with the Dolphins in the Playoffs no matter what the result, but I don't think it's possible based on this week's results.

 

Sure, if we win the next 2 and lose against the Dolphins it might be possible to backdoor our way in depending on how things go the next few weeks and in week 18, but I honestly think if we don't win out, we'll be on the outside looking in.  Just have to keep winning.

[zow2]

Really need Indy and Houston to start fading and they do play each other the final game.

Need teams like Tenn, ATL and Raiders to do some damage.  The Falcons look like hot garbage but the other 2 could win.  Raiders got their swag back.  Need Kansas City to lay a beating on Cincinnati when they go to Arrowhead on New Year’s eve. And i cannot see KC losing a 4th home game. 

[Generic_Bills_Fan]

31 minutes ago, Playoffs? said:

The absolute key is that Miami MUST lose at least one of their games against Dallas and Baltimore… and we MUST win out 

 

(If Miami loses out, we can afford to lose one more game, but we still must beat Miami.)

Miami losing at least one not to us isn’t necessary…SO much has to happen for the bills not to get in at 11-6 as a wildcard.  Like 1 in thousands type odds

 

someone posted a tweet of all that needs to happen its legitimately crazy lol 

 

this is just a small subset of the list of what needs to happen but the bengals and Indy need to win out and Baltimore needs to win only 1 game but not to Miami and Miami has to beat Dallas and Baltimore.  Jacksonville needs to win at least 3 games also.  Baltimore winning tonight makes it nearly impossible for us to miss as an 11 win wildcard 

 

the bills may not control their own destiny which maybe is a term that scares people but they are literally as close as you can get to controlling your own destiny without technically controlling it 🤣

Edited December 18, 2023 by Generic_Bills_Fan

[Big Blitz]

Browns play the Jets.  That’s 10 wins.  
 

 

2 spots left:

 

Bengals (at Pitt at Chiefs, v Browns)

 

Colts (at Atlanta, v Raiders v Texans)

 

Texans (v Browns, v Titans, @ Colts)

 

Bills 
 

I don’t see 2 losses for the Texans.  Could they lose 2 of those?  Sure but I just saw Case Keenum win in Tennessee.  The Texans are getting in.

 

The Bengals could lose 2.  The Browns if they beat Houston then the Jets - they may have a WC spot locked up going into week 18.  I think we are rooting for Cleveland this week.  
 

So to me the best case scenario going into week 18 is Browns beat Houston.  Bengals lose the next 2.  Colts lose one to Atlanta or Raiders - root for Houston to beat them week 18.  
 

Then 10-7 would get us in.  

 

Browns 11–6 

Texans 10-7

Bills 10-7

 

Colts 9-8

Bengals 9-8 

 

Where am I wrong.  

 

[HappyDays]

8 minutes ago, Big Blitz said:

I think we are rooting for Cleveland this week.  

 

We are rooting for Texans over Browns next week. The goal is to get 2 of those teams to 7 losses. Browns and Bengals still play each other, Colts and Texans still play each other. So the Browns lose against the Texans we are guaranteed to get into the playoffs at 11-7.

 

Easiest path is the Bengals just have to lose 1 of their last 3 games and we are in at 11-7 no matter what else happens.

[Big Blitz]

5 minutes ago, HappyDays said:

 

We are rooting for Texans over Browns next week. The goal is to get 2 of those teams to 7 losses. Browns and Bengals still play each other, Colts and Texans still play each other. So the Browns lose against the Texans we are guaranteed to get into the playoffs at 11-7.

 

Easiest path is the Bengals just have to lose 1 of their last 3 games and we are in at 11-7 no matter what else happens.

 

Right - my scenarios are about “what if we’re 10-7?”

 

If we’re in a 3 way tie for 2 spots what tiebreaker would be in our favor?  
 

And since the Browns by beating the Jets gets to 10 wins - they’re probably in?  So beat Houston for us.  No?  

[HappyDays]

All of the following things have to happen for the Bills to miss the playoffs at 11-6:

 

1) Dolphins beat Cowboys & Ravens

2) Bengals win out

3) Colts OR Texans win out

4) Browns win against the Texans & Jets but lose against the Bengals

5) Jaguars win out (assuming tonight's result holds)

 

That's why we have a greater than 99% chance of making it in at 11-6. There are so many individual game results over the next three weeks that would immediately lock us in to a wildcard spot at worst at 11-7.

[Warcodered]

1 hour ago, Playoffs? said:

I think as stated above, we technically could win out and not make it in. If Miami beats both Dallas and Baltimore… and if some other things shake out with the teams in the hunt, we could technically get knocked out even if we win out… I think..

That would be such a ***** playoffs, can you imagine all these crappy teams get in and leave a raging Buffalo behind. I know it would be awful for us, but just for general NFL watchers it's just ***** lame.

Edited December 18, 2023 by Warcodered

[Floydboy12]

Yeah. Not really sure where the 11-7 is coming from. It’s a 17 game schedule. Browns are probably in unless they collapse. Colts schedule looks pretty easy. We need the Texans, Bengals to falter. And honestly need Broncos to lose another one in case we drop another game. Gonna take some serious luck for the Bills to get in if they drop another game. But the good news is if they win out I think they’re gonna win the division. 

Edited December 18, 2023 by Floydboy12

[HappyDays]

10 minutes ago, Big Blitz said:

 

Right - my scenarios are about “what if we’re 10-7?”

 

If we’re in a 3 way tie for 2 spots what tiebreaker would be in our favor?  
 

And since the Browns by beating the Jets gets to 10 wins - they’re probably in?  So beat Houston for us.  No?  

 

I'm not even thinking about 10-7 possibilities. Too many variables at play. We put ourselves in this position so now we have to win out.

[Big Blitz]

3 minutes ago, HappyDays said:

 

I'm not even thinking about 10-7 possibilities. Too many variables at play. We put ourselves in this position so now we have to win out.

 

But I need to know who to root for the next 2 weeks!!!!!!  

[Einstein]

With the Jags losing tonight, the Bills now have the ability to get into a playoff spot as soon as Sunday afternoon.

 

Bills win

Jags lose to the Bucs

Texans lose to the Browns

 

Then the Bills slide into the 7th seed.

 

.

Edited December 18, 2023 by Einstein

[Floydboy12]

15 minutes ago, Big Blitz said:

 

But I need to know who to root for the next 2 weeks!!!!!!  

If the Bills, Texans, Colts and or Jaguars and I guess Steelers all finish 10-7 who has the tie breaker? One of those south 3 obviously win the division. We would need the Jags to win division I would think and possibly have tie break over the other 3? Edit. Just looked it up. We better win out. 

Edited December 18, 2023 by Floydboy12

[Einstein]

21 minutes ago, Virgil said:

If the Jags and Browns win next week, we are in the playoffs as early as next week.  
 

Not clinched obviously, but still….

 

We want the Jags to lose. Not win.

[26TrapDraw]

The stage is set for Dallas to Bounce back from this asswhoopin and beat the Dolphins Sunday. We need to finish with Wins against Bolts and Cheatriots and the dolphins split their next two . We will play them for the division and our playoff life.

I love it!!!!

Go Bills!!!

[Sammy Watkins' Rib]

There is still a bizzaro world chance that Miami has the division AND one seed locked up going into week 18 and is playing for nothing. The hardest part of the equation is Miami taking care of their end of the deal. 

 

Ravens: L @49ers L vs. Dolphins 11-5 loses head to head tie breaker to Dolphins

Dolphins : W vs. Cowboys W @ Ravens 12-4 wins head to head tie breaker over Ravens

KC: One loss to either Raiders or Bengals to drop to 10-6

Browns: One loss to either Texans or Jets to drop to 10-6

 

I believe the above scenario would have the Dolphins clinching the 1 seed before week 18. 

[HappyDays]

This is a potentially big development for our playoff chances:

 

Jags play the Bucs on the road next week. If Lawrence can't play their backup is CJ Beathard and I think Bucs would be the favorite in that scenario. The Jags dropping to 7 losses would mean we are immediately guaranteed a playoff spot at 11-6 no matter what else happens.

[Generic_Bills_Fan]

Playin around with the nyt playoff machine and it seems like their simulations really don’t think the dolphins are nearly as good as us lol 

 

We’re a pretty big division favorite in their models if the dolphins lose next week and we win.  It flips from 60/40 dolphins winning the division now to 55/45 bills winning it with just those two results 

Edited December 18, 2023 by Generic_Bills_Fan

[Generic_Bills_Fan]

54 minutes ago, HappyDays said:

This is a potentially big development for our playoff chances:

 

Jags play the Bucs on the road next week. If Lawrence can't play their backup is CJ Beathard and I think Bucs would be the favorite in that scenario. The Jags dropping to 7 losses would mean we are immediately guaranteed a playoff spot at 11-6 no matter what else happens.

Jags blowing 2 down the stretch is pretty unlikely but it would be a huge boost to our wildcard odds too…losing to the bucs would really make them sweat out those last two games.  Jags losing two would get us from coin flip at best with 10 wins to very likely in with 10 wins