The Athletic: Dorsey's first 25 games as OC equal to Daboll's last 25

[Ray Stonada]

https://theathletic.com/5040500/2023/11/09/buffalo-bills-offense-defense-problems/

 

This was very surprising (to me at least). I guess I have selective memory of the high points of Daboll's time and not all the lulls and frustrations. However, the article does not really take into account the tailspin of the last five games or so on offense, where our points per game are way down and Josh looks less confident than normal.

 

One other point about Daboll's time as OC: a lot of people here say 2021 was our year, we would have definitely one the Super Bowl if not for 13 seconds, etc., etc. 

 

Well, I remember the night before the Bills' first Super Bowl. We had just dropped 51 on the Raiders and 44 on the Dolphins in the playoffs. We were playing the Giants, who had somehow shocked the two-time defending champ 49ers in the NFC championship. We had beaten them in December already. I was so sure we were going to win I was already thinking about repeating next season. 

 

Also, remember which team that took out the Chiefs after 13 seconds: Burrow and the Bengals. I am not 100% sure we would have beaten them if we'd held on and beat the Chiefs. And then the Rams had a tough team as well. You never, never know. Ever. 

Edited November 9, 2023 by Ray Stonada

[zow2]

Everybody complains about the OC (including me), but it's always a combination of things and some players + some units are not executing at a high level...not even a medium level.  

[Ray Stonada]

Exactly. As they say, the Jimmie's and Joe's. It's actually amazing how consistent our offensive stats and Josh's stats are over the last three years. 

 

There is one element that I think has a lot of responsibility: coaching not in the sense of play design and play calling, but in the sense of instilling confidence and leading the ship, etc. 

 

We never win in overtime and we drop a lot of close games. And it's not because Josh isn't clutch. He's usually cool as a cucumber when we need a drive. So I put that more on situational coaching and leadership.

 

 

[BillsFanSD]

I think the analytics pendulum has swung too far, to the point that people are refusing to see what's right in front of them.

 

Digression.  During Josh Allen's first year, I saw a player who was capable of winning games all by himself.  He was raw and basically uncoached, but he had plays each game that reminded me of people like Steve Young and John Elway.  Yes, I was comparing our first-year QB to two HOFers.  Today it's fashionable for people to pull up Allen's stats from his first couple of years to talk about how "bad" he was back then, but the fact is that if you actually watched the guy play, he was very obviously good, not bad.  He was only bad if you just looked at the stats and never watched any games.  By the eyeball test, this was definitely a guy that we could build around.

 

In 2023, it's not like that.  I know the stats are good, and Allen still makes 2-3 dazzling plays every game.  He didn't turn into a pumpkin after week 4.  But just watching the guy play, it's not the same offense.  He's incredibly reluctant to scramble, he doesn't seem to roll out as much, and it feels like he's playing with one hand tied behind his back.  His accuracy is great and he doesn't air-mail guys anymore, but things are very obviously not clicking.  He looks less like a guy who should be on the cover of Madden and more like a rich man's Phillip Rivers.  

 

I'm saying the stats are wrong of course.  Just that you're missing something if only look at the stats and don't pay attending to what you can see with your own two eyes.  Stats are an important part of the picture, but they're not the whole picture.

[zow2]

10 minutes ago, BillsFanSD said:

In 2023, it's not like that.  I know the stats are good, and Allen still makes 2-3 dazzling plays every game.  He didn't turn into a pumpkin after week 4.  But just watching the guy play, it's not the same offense.  He's incredibly reluctant to scramble, he doesn't seem to roll out as much, and it feels like he's playing with one hand tied behind his back.  His accuracy is great and he doesn't air-mail guys anymore, but things are very obviously not clicking.  He looks less like a guy who should be on the cover of Madden and more like a rich man's Phillip Rivers.  

 

As I've said in other threads about Josh, and I'll just be blunt.  He's not that good of a pocket passer, especially when he has to move off his first read.  If his first read is covered or if he doesn't trust it...he should immediately step up and run...or roll out and throw on the run. That's when he's at his best.   

[boyst]

i don't want to admit or think i am giving up on this team this year because there is talent there on offense to win every game we play. but there is something missing somewhere that isn't letting us achieve a modicum of the success we are capable of and i am sure that no one knows exactly what it is that we are missing.

 

it's clear we lack leadership. our attitude is lackluster. in management they say attitude is a reflection of leadership. who's the leader on this team? Josh? McDermott? Dorsey? The Captains? Who's the weak link for this?

my opinion:  we have a young team in some regards and our veterans are not pulling their weight. on the OL the only person capable of leadership is Morse who is a shell of himself. the happiness and joy is missing from the whole scene. knox was charismatic but he's not been himself since his brother passed. diggs is the only player on offense playing with heart this year and he's taking countless plays off - he does not run block, ever. against cinci he did not even attempt several blocks for the RB who was popping it out beside him. on one play he'd have let the runner gain 2 more yards.

 

on the field we do not have an identity. who creates and maintains this identity? the players from the sideline or the coaches? why are the players not putting this team on their shoulders? who should be? who is capable?

my opinion:  the coaches need to be coaching up talent. that's not debatable. the attitude starts there and this rolls over from the top. mcdermotts not consistent in his decisions. dorsey is forcing square pegs in round holes. i would love to see if they just left play calling to josh, just to see what it would look like. i don't think it would be better because i don't think anyone is capable of coaching him on this team. i just don't know more of what i do not know.

 

the team does not have synergy. why does it seem like the concepts and fundamentals are not working together? how much can the players overcome poor gameplans? are the players not executing?

my opinion:  if the concepts are not working why do we keep working them? we are resisting change and it is infuriating 

 

we aren't winning games. why does it seem like we never have enough talent when we bring in "better" players every year?

my opinion:  the talent was overrated and the coaching staff and concepts are not on the same page. very few free agents have joined this team and contributed. since the beginning mcdermott took a young and talented burgeoning to early success. but since has not developed anyone since.i know he has coordinators and specialty coaches to do this but htey're not and it's on him.

[DCofNC]

Right and Tyrod was a Pro Bowler, based on Stats.

[Ray Stonada]

Maybe these analytics stats are not all they're cracked up to be? (EPA etc.) I thought Dorsey's offense was clearly running aground since last year's Packer's game, and that the stats would show that.

[TheyCallMeAndy]

Woah woah, pause a second. 
 

Dabolls first 25 games here came in his THIRD stint as an OC.

 

This is Dorsey’s first. 
 

 

[SoonerBillsFan]

See this is why I ignore stats.  We have great stats against ****teams and **** stats against good teams and can't win most big games. 

 

McDermott has a losing record still in the playoffs.

26 minutes ago, BillsFanSD said:

I think the analytics pendulum has swung too far, to the point that people are refusing to see what's right in front of them.

 

Digression.  During Josh Allen's first year, I saw a player who was capable of winning games all by himself.  He was raw and basically uncoached, but he had plays each game that reminded me of people like Steve Young and John Elway.  Yes, I was comparing our first-year QB to two HOFers.  Today it's fashionable for people to pull up Allen's stats from his first couple of years to talk about how "bad" he was back then, but the fact is that if you actually watched the guy play, he was very obviously good, not bad.  He was only bad if you just looked at the stats and never watched any games.  By the eyeball test, this was definitely a guy that we could build around.

 

In 2023, it's not like that.  I know the stats are good, and Allen still makes 2-3 dazzling plays every game.  He didn't turn into a pumpkin after week 4.  But just watching the guy play, it's not the same offense.  He's incredibly reluctant to scramble, he doesn't seem to roll out as much, and it feels like he's playing with one hand tied behind his back.  His accuracy is great and he doesn't air-mail guys anymore, but things are very obviously not clicking.  He looks less like a guy who should be on the cover of Madden and more like a rich man's Phillip Rivers.  

 

I'm saying the stats are wrong of course.  Just that you're missing something if only look at the stats and don't pay attending to what you can see with your own two eyes.  Stats are an important part of the picture, but they're not the whole picture.

Why though?  Why doesn't he tell Sean to pound sand and just do what he wants?  McDermott going to bench Josh?  Yeah I really want to see that lol.  

 

I feel there is something there where Sean has something over Josh to be able to force him to play the way Sean wants 

[dorquemada]

31 minutes ago, Ray Stonada said:

We never win in overtime and we drop a lot of close games. And it's not because Josh isn't clutch. He's usually cool as a cucumber when we need a drive. So I put that more on situational coaching and leadership.

 

 

 

This drives me nuts.  With Kelly and Flutie, if it was a 1 score game with 2 minutes left, i knew i could go on and spend my winnings.  Now I feel exactly the opposite.  Unless the Bills have a 3 score lead with 2 minutes left, anything can happen

[Drew21PA]

35 minutes ago, Ray Stonada said:

Exactly. As they say, the Jimmie's and Joe's. It's actually amazing how consistent our offensive stats and Josh's stats are over the last three years. 

 

There is one element that I think has a lot of responsibility: coaching not in the sense of play design and play calling, but in the sense of instilling confidence and leading the ship, etc. 

 

We never win in overtime and we drop a lot of close games. And it's not because Josh isn't clutch. He's usually cool as a cucumber when we need a drive. So I put that more on situational coaching and leadership.

 

 

I think we can point to McDermott decisions way more often than Josh decisions and execution as reasons we lose

 

i don’t know if any other team where I feel that way 

[78thealltimegreat]

I think a major problem is what do the bills want? What type of offense do they want to play? Do they want a quick strike offense or one that will grind out first downs. Until last Sunday I thought they ran it reasonably well but like anything else they reverted to Josh being the whole offense again. 
McDermott and Dorsey need to sit down and figure out once and for all ok this is what I want and go from there.

[Drew21PA]

Just now, 78thealltimegreat said:

I think a major problem is what do the bills want? What type of offense do they want to play? Do they want a quick strike offense or one that will grind out first downs. Until last Sunday I thought they ran it reasonably well but like anything else they reverted to Josh being the whole offense again. 
McDermott and Dorsey need to sit down and figure out once and for all ok this is what I want and go from there.

Why not sit down and say

 

we need to win

 

ken go with what works - I don’t give a crap what you want - I want what works and stick to it

 

boom simple solved 

[finn]

8 minutes ago, zow2 said:

 

As I've said in other threads about Josh, and I'll just be blunt.  He's not that good of a pocket passer, especially when he has to move off his first read.  If his first read is covered or if he doesn't trust it...he should immediately step up and run...or roll out and throw on the run. That's when he's at his best.   

Agreed. He's not a normal QB. He's more like Elway and Young than Brady and Manning, and I'm concerned that Dorsey and McDermott are trying to make him something he's not. Young once said that when he was playing in the old USFL, he would tell his center to snap the ball over his head once in a while just because he thrived off of broken plays. Allen is the same way. No one is better, in fact. Amazing improvisor, howitzer arm, great vision and anticipation, fantastic runner, big frame, surprising speed...He has the whole package. 

 

But it seems McDermott especially wants a pocket passer. Allen is trying to comply, but he's frustrated by the limitations. The fire isn't there anymore, at least not consistently. I say release the Kraken. Make this offense literally unpredictable. Go on fourth down from everywhere, fake punts and kicks, mix in gimmick plays, reverses, direct RB snaps... Tap into Allen's creativity and let him have fun. In fact, let him call some plays on occasion, not just audibles, either. 

 

I'm here to say that Allen has the potential to be the best QB in NFL history, the real GOAT. But he's got to be freed from the Lilliputians that have him tied to the ground. 

[SCBills]

It’s not surprising to me.  We had some bad stretches with Daboll… I was at the Jax game. 
 

However, we saw them be able to flip the switch and catch fire. 
 

We’ve yet to see that with Dorsey. 

[Low Positive]

9 minutes ago, finn said:

Agreed. He's not a normal QB. He's more like Elway and Young than Brady and Manning, and I'm concerned that Dorsey and McDermott are trying to make him something he's not. Young once said that when he was playing in the old USFL, he would tell his center to snap the ball over his head once in a while just because he thrived off of broken plays. Allen is the same way. No one is better, in fact. Amazing improvisor, howitzer arm, great vision and anticipation, fantastic runner, big frame, surprising speed...He has the whole package. 

 

But it seems McDermott especially wants a pocket passer. Allen is trying to comply, but he's frustrated by the limitations. The fire isn't there anymore, at least not consistently. I say release the Kraken. Make this offense literally unpredictable. Go on fourth down from everywhere, fake punts and kicks, mix in gimmick plays, reverses, direct RB snaps... Tap into Allen's creativity and let him have fun. In fact, let him call some plays on occasion, not just audibles, either. 

 

I'm here to say that Allen has the potential to be the best QB in NFL history, the real GOAT. But he's got to be freed from the Lilliputians that have him tied to the ground. 

All coaches want a pocket passer. They want the plays run as they were designed and called. It's a control thing.

[The Jokeman]

24 minutes ago, TheyCallMeAndy said:

Woah woah, pause a second. 
 

Dabolls first 25 games here came in his THIRD stint as an OC.

 

This is Dorsey’s first. 
 

 

Actually it was his 4th, as he was a OC in Cleveland 2009-10,  Miami 2011, KC 2012. 

[SoCal Deek]

Dorsey is clearly over his head so far….but our franchise QB isn’t supposed to be. At least he isn’t supposed to be anymore. Josh! Figure it out. 

[D. L. Hot-Flamethrower]

Not that the analytics models are perfect, but I've felt for quite a while going back to last season that our defense has gotten off too easy. Some, especially on this board, always think it's the offenses job to "win the game". Our defense and McD (even considering the injuries) have been falling off. I think our offense and Josh have plateaued in the current situation. We never add a bonafide #2, we've had a marginal O line and we have a great QB who they're trying to rein in as a runner. The defense has been aging and suffering from missed personnel additions. I also think it's pretty clear that "complimentary football" from McD represents a true lack of confidence in his defense. His level of accountability with his unit hasn't been high enough and blaming the offense is always a built in excuse. Get some damn turnovers defense!

Edited November 9, 2023 by D. L. Hot-Flamethrower

[Royale with Cheese]

Statistically they are similar but it's not the same.  Dorsey's is more clunky and no rhythm.  Daboll had periods of struggle but he figured it out and we came back with a boom.  

 

 

[dave mcbride]

1 hour ago, Ray Stonada said:

https://theathletic.com/5040500/2023/11/09/buffalo-bills-offense-defense-problems/

 

This was very surprising (to me at least). I guess I have selective memory of the high points of Daboll's time and not all the lulls and frustrations. However, the article does not really take into account the tailspin of the last five games or so on offense, where our points per game are way down and Josh looks less confident than normal.

 

One other point about Daboll's time as OC: a lot of people here say 2021 was our year, we would have definitely one the Super Bowl if not for 13 seconds, etc., etc. 

 

Well, I remember the night before the Bills' first Super Bowl. We had just dropped 51 on the Raiders and 44 on the Dolphins in the playoffs. We were playing the Giants, who had somehow shocked the two-time defending champ 49ers in the NFC championship. We had beaten them in December already. I was so sure we were going to win I was already thinking about repeating next season. 

 

Also, remember which team that took out the Chiefs after 13 seconds: Burrow and the Bengals. I am not 100% sure we would have beaten them if we'd held on and beat the Chiefs. And then the Rams had a tough team as well. You never, never know. Ever. 

This is a very good piece that makes the good point that McDermott's defense is putting the offense in too many lousy situations, which is affecting scoring. Drives have to be longer and they have few short fields. Sure, the defensive injuries are terrible and are crippling their productivity, but all the same this is a defense that has become blitz-happy (and not very good at it) yet can't force turnovers.

4 minutes ago, Royale with Cheese said:

Statistically they are similar but it's not the same.  Dorsey's is more clunky and no rhythm.  Daboll had periods of struggle but he figured it out and we came back with a boom.  

 

 

I suggest reading the piece if you haven't yet. There are surrounding circumstances that are affecting the scoring--very poor defense and bad ST.

47 minutes ago, DCofNC said:

Right and Tyrod was a Pro Bowler, based on Stats.

I suggest reading the piece if you have access. It's a more sophisticated argument than that.

Edited November 9, 2023 by dave mcbride

[Casey D]

1 hour ago, Ray Stonada said:

https://theathletic.com/5040500/2023/11/09/buffalo-bills-offense-defense-problems/

 

This was very surprising (to me at least). I guess I have selective memory of the high points of Daboll's time and not all the lulls and frustrations. However, the article does not really take into account the tailspin of the last five games or so on offense, where our points per game are way down and Josh looks less confident than normal.

 

One other point about Daboll's time as OC: a lot of people here say 2021 was our year, we would have definitely one the Super Bowl if not for 13 seconds, etc., etc. 

 

Well, I remember the night before the Bills' first Super Bowl. We had just dropped 51 on the Raiders and 44 on the Dolphins in the playoffs. We were playing the Giants, who had somehow shocked the two-time defending champ 49ers in the NFC championship. We had beaten them in December already. I was so sure we were going to win I was already thinking about repeating next season. 

 

Also, remember which team that took out the Chiefs after 13 seconds: Burrow and the Bengals. I am not 100% sure we would have beaten them if we'd held on and beat the Chiefs. And then the Rams had a tough team as well. You never, never know. Ever. 

Great read, thanks.  And it confirms what I see, a defense that cannot get off the field and an offense under duress to perform with fewer drive starts and bad field position.  Poor complementary football.  Unless McDermott can scheme up a way to cover for an injury riddled defense so it is at least average, it will be hard for the offense to be superlative.

Edited November 9, 2023 by Casey D

[Royale with Cheese]

5 minutes ago, dave mcbride said:

This is a very good piece that makes the good point that McDermott's defense is putting the offense in too many lousy situations, which is affecting scoring. Drives have to be longer and they have few short fields. Sure, the defensive injuries are terrible and are crippling their productivity, but all the same this is a defense that has become blitz-happy (and not very good at it) yet can't force turnovers.

I suggest reading the piece if you haven't yet. There are surrounding circumstances that are affecting the scoring--very poor defense and bad ST.

I suggest reading the piece if you have access. It's a more sophisticated argument than that.

 

I  can't read the article because of the paywall.

 

We can all see with our eyes that this offense is struggling because of both execution and scheme.  We used to be an offense where it didn't matter if we were pinned inside the 10 on a punt or turnover.  They moved fluidly down the field and had big plays....scored points. 

 

The offense within themselves are not playing well regardless of the surrounding circumstances.  

[dave mcbride]

1 minute ago, Royale with Cheese said:

 

I  can't read the article because of the paywall.

 

We can all see with our eyes that this offense is struggling because of both execution and scheme.  We used to be an offense where it didn't matter if we were pinned inside the 10 on a punt or turnover.  They moved fluidly down the field and had big plays....scored points. 

 

The offense within themselves are not playing well regardless of the surrounding circumstances.  

"But it’s the Bills’ defense that has fallen off since Dorsey took over, and especially this season, when injuries hit hard. That helps explain how the team has suffered a 3-yard regression in average starting field position on offense. Buffalo started 42 offensive drives in opponent territory over Daboll’s final 25 games with Allen. The number is 29 with Dorsey. 

 

This is one reason Buffalo is averaging fewer offensive points per game under Dorsey, despite experiencing raw gains in EPA per play, EPA per drive, success rate and various red zone statistics.

...

With the defense falling off, the Bills have led on the scoreboard for 51 percent of plays in Dorsey’s first 25 games, down from 66 percent in Daboll’s final 25. Buffalo is also trailing more frequently (31 percent to 22). This has put greater pressure on the offense to succeed, shining a brighter light on its imperfections in games Buffalo loses.

 

Almost no team in the league has been better than Buffalo on offense in games that were lost.

 

Even counting Allen’s implosion game against the New York Jets in Week 1, Buffalo ranks second in offensive EPA per play during defeats this season. Only Philadelphia ranks higher, on a one-game sample (the Eagles are 8-1). The Bills are second to San Francisco in offensive success rate during defeats. Buffalo’s defense ranks 25th (EPA per play) and 18th (success rate) under the same criteria."

[Bobby Hooks]

57 minutes ago, SoonerBillsFan said:

See this is why I ignore stats.  We have great stats against ****teams and **** stats against good teams and can't win most big games. 

 

McDermott has a losing record still in the playoffs.

Why though?  Why doesn't he tell Sean to pound sand and just do what he wants?  McDermott going to bench Josh?  Yeah I really want to see that lol.  

 

I feel there is something there where Sean has something over Josh to be able to force him to play the way Sean wants 

I believe that’s using the really bad, amped Josh games as evidence that he can’t play that way. 
 

Josh is really in his head right now and I have zero doubt a lot of that is Mcdermott being in his ear telling him he has to trust HIS process. 
 

There has to be a happy medium, and as much as I disliked a lot of what Daboll did, it’s clear he pushed back against Mcd and that’s why their relationship is as frosty as it is. Mcd wants things done his way. 

Edited November 9, 2023 by Bobby Hooks

[colin]

I remember thinking daboll sucked at times, I was kinda right but more wrong.

 

I also thought Dorsey was pretty close to dabs in his first year, I suppose I was correct.

 

I did not realize how not bad our o has been, nor how absolutely trash our d has been.

 

I know alpha thinks it's all Dorsey, but clearly it is mcd.  He built the team d heavy, he calls the d, and they suck balls.

 

Maybe a better oc makes us greatest show on turf level, but an extra punt forced by the d, and two extra possessions for the o (meaning the d gets off the field sooner across all drives) and wed have zero to two total losses, as bad as it has been overall.

 

That's crazy

[PBF81]

Daboll was incredibly overrated.

 

Dorsey's inexperienced and it shows.  

 

Neither optimized our offensive potential.  Allen has made both look better than they are.  

 

I'm fairness to Daboll, Dorsey also inherited a fully seasoned Allen.  Allen began developing on Daboll's watch.  

 

The comp isn't Apples to apples.  

 

It's clear what Allen & the offense need.  Whether he gets it remains to be seen.  

 

That's up to Pegula.  

 

Pegula had better start thinking about ST/PSL sales to his new digs though.  Not sure there's going to be a rush to buy STs at twice the current prices plus PSLs given the current state of the team.  

 

 

[Mikie2times]

1 hour ago, BillsFanSD said:

I think the analytics pendulum has swung too far, to the point that people are refusing to see what's right in front of them.

 

Digression.  During Josh Allen's first year, I saw a player who was capable of winning games all by himself.  He was raw and basically uncoached, but he had plays each game that reminded me of people like Steve Young and John Elway.  Yes, I was comparing our first-year QB to two HOFers.  Today it's fashionable for people to pull up Allen's stats from his first couple of years to talk about how "bad" he was back then, but the fact is that if you actually watched the guy play, he was very obviously good, not bad.  He was only bad if you just looked at the stats and never watched any games.  By the eyeball test, this was definitely a guy that we could build around.

 

In 2023, it's not like that.  I know the stats are good, and Allen still makes 2-3 dazzling plays every game.  He didn't turn into a pumpkin after week 4.  But just watching the guy play, it's not the same offense.  He's incredibly reluctant to scramble, he doesn't seem to roll out as much, and it feels like he's playing with one hand tied behind his back.  His accuracy is great and he doesn't air-mail guys anymore, but things are very obviously not clicking.  He looks less like a guy who should be on the cover of Madden and more like a rich man's Phillip Rivers.  

 

I'm saying the stats are wrong of course.  Just that you're missing something if only look at the stats and don't pay attending to what you can see with your own two eyes.  Stats are an important part of the picture, but they're not the whole picture.

It just depends how/where you look at the stats. Allen's numbers on the year are very good. Having such a high completion % is also favorable to many advanced stats. 

 

I think these stats capture what we are seeing. I don't think anybody would be happy with the bottom row.   

 

 

[Royale with Cheese]

25 minutes ago, dave mcbride said:

"But it’s the Bills’ defense that has fallen off since Dorsey took over, and especially this season, when injuries hit hard. That helps explain how the team has suffered a 3-yard regression in average starting field position on offense. Buffalo started 42 offensive drives in opponent territory over Daboll’s final 25 games with Allen. The number is 29 with Dorsey. 

 

This is one reason Buffalo is averaging fewer offensive points per game under Dorsey, despite experiencing raw gains in EPA per play, EPA per drive, success rate and various red zone statistics.

...

With the defense falling off, the Bills have led on the scoreboard for 51 percent of plays in Dorsey’s first 25 games, down from 66 percent in Daboll’s final 25. Buffalo is also trailing more frequently (31 percent to 22). This has put greater pressure on the offense to succeed, shining a brighter light on its imperfections in games Buffalo loses.

 

Almost no team in the league has been better than Buffalo on offense in games that were lost.

 

Even counting Allen’s implosion game against the New York Jets in Week 1, Buffalo ranks second in offensive EPA per play during defeats this season. Only Philadelphia ranks higher, on a one-game sample (the Eagles are 8-1). The Bills are second to San Francisco in offensive success rate during defeats. Buffalo’s defense ranks 25th (EPA per play) and 18th (success rate) under the same criteria."

 

Being injured on defense doesn't mean you can't score on offense.  This is basically saying the Bills offense are not capable of winning shoot outs.

Our offense is healthy for the most part.

 

Being injured on defense doesn't mean a defense as bad as the Giants hold you scoreless through 3 quarters.  

 

[2003Contenders]

The "underachieving" offense really is a combination of factors:

 

Lack of talent.

Thanks to the unicorn that Josh Allen is, I think we fall into the habit of overrating the talent we have on offense.

 

Yes, Allen, Diggs (and possibly Kincaid) are all elite -- but most of the remaining supporting cast is pedestrian at best. The OL is better than it has been in recent years but is still very much a work in progress with 1-2 positions still in need of an upgrade.

 

Cook can be explosive but lacks the pass blocking skills and ability to consistently run between the tackles to be a bona fide every-down back. Davis remains inconsistent -- but the remaining receivers have not stepped up either.

 

The offense has been at its best when Josh spreads the ball around -- he can't keep forcing the ball to Diggs. I am hopeful that the emergence of Kincaid (and to a lesser extent Shakir) will help in those regards.

 

Unimaginative play design.

It just seems that the Bills' offense has to fight tooth and nail for every yard, whereas our opponents (Bengals in the last game in particular) make it seem so easy. Our receivers almost never get much in the way of run after the catch -- and I am so sick of seeing pass plays go for 2 yards.

 

I get  that the trend for opposing defenses is to play back and take away the deep ball -- but maybe getting guys in motion, exploiting favorable match-ups, hitting on timing routes, improving the routes, etc. would help tremendously.

 

Josh.

Maybe a course in Risk Management would do him some good. Like, when does it make sense to go for the low percentage kill shot vs. taking the sure thing that at least results in a first down (or at least positive yardage). What is the old adage that you never go broke by consistently making a profit?

 

As much as we all rightfully fuss at Dorsey, there are many times on film review that we can see that Josh by-passes a wide open receiver on an intermediate route for a receiver who is well-covered downfield. While it is true that he is amongst the leaders in completion percentage this season, I saw a recent stat that someone posted that he is only about 40% on passes traveling more than 20 yards. That means that his completion percentage on passes under 20 yards is lethal, and that is where he needs to be going on a consistent basis.

 

Consistently hitting on well designed short and intermediate routes (see above) also helps to set up the deep pass when the opposing defense has to start cheating up.

 

Recognizing game flow.

This is on both Josh and the coaches. The coaches need to do a better job of getting the offense into a rhythm. Maybe that includes calling plays that get the ball out of Josh's hands in less than 3 seconds. Maybe it includes Josh being more decisive.

 

Maybe it means running an up tempo/no huddle. But they also need to be flexible based on the opponent and situation at hand. The best example is opening day. We are up on the Jets by 10 at halftime playing against Zack Wilson and an inept defense. The plan then should have involved understanding the following: points are at a premium. That is, the Jets defense is good and it is hard to move the ball at will and score against them -- but their offense is so bad that it is hard to imagine them overcoming a 10-point deficit WITHOUT help from our  own offense. And, of course, we all know what happened next, as Josh turned the ball over 3 times in the 2nd half, allowing the Jets to get back in (and ultimately win) the game. Protecting the football was all that was necessary for the Bills to win the game.

 

The opposite happened against the Bucs a couple of weeks back. On multiple occasions a first down in Bucs territory would have iced the game -- but instead they tried repeatedly to draw the defense off sides. This was so obvious that the Bucs never fell for it.

 

Lastly, it does seem like the coaches have been doing a decent job of making adjustments at halftime. However, this trend has also shown that these adjustments are taking too long, with the team repeatedly playing from a deficit in the 2nd half.

 

Over-coaching.

There have been times this season when Josh has looked very uncomfortable. Giving credit where it is due, some of that has to do with what defenses are doing to him. I think the coaches have drilled it into his head that he needs to avoid running with the ball, and that is making him look "unnatural". Not saying that Dorsey needs to call an abundance of designed run plays, but a few here and there will certainly keep Josh in his comfort zone -- and help break the back of the defense.

 

In the past, when the offense would struggle, Daboll would intentionally call a sequence of run plays for Josh that would help ignite the offense.

[SectionC3]

1 hour ago, boyst said:

i don't want to admit or think i am giving up on this team this year because there is talent there on offense to win every game we play. but there is something missing somewhere that isn't letting us achieve a modicum of the success we are capable of and i am sure that no one knows exactly what it is that we are missing.

 

it's clear we lack leadership. our attitude is lackluster. in management they say attitude is a reflection of leadership. who's the leader on this team? Josh? McDermott? Dorsey? The Captains? Who's the weak link for this?

my opinion:  we have a young team in some regards and our veterans are not pulling their weight. on the OL the only person capable of leadership is Morse who is a shell of himself. the happiness and joy is missing from the whole scene. knox was charismatic but he's not been himself since his brother passed. diggs is the only player on offense playing with heart this year and he's taking countless plays off - he does not run block, ever. against cinci he did not even attempt several blocks for the RB who was popping it out beside him. on one play he'd have let the runner gain 2 more yards.

 

on the field we do not have an identity. who creates and maintains this identity? the players from the sideline or the coaches? why are the players not putting this team on their shoulders? who should be? who is capable?

my opinion:  the coaches need to be coaching up talent. that's not debatable. the attitude starts there and this rolls over from the top. mcdermotts not consistent in his decisions. dorsey is forcing square pegs in round holes. i would love to see if they just left play calling to josh, just to see what it would look like. i don't think it would be better because i don't think anyone is capable of coaching him on this team. i just don't know more of what i do not know.

 

the team does not have synergy. why does it seem like the concepts and fundamentals are not working together? how much can the players overcome poor gameplans? are the players not executing?

my opinion:  if the concepts are not working why do we keep working them? we are resisting change and it is infuriating 

 

we aren't winning games. why does it seem like we never have enough talent when we bring in "better" players every year?

my opinion:  the talent was overrated and the coaching staff and concepts are not on the same page. very few free agents have joined this team and contributed. since the beginning mcdermott took a young and talented burgeoning to early success. but since has not developed anyone since.i know he has coordinators and specialty coaches to do this but htey're not and it's on him.

I suspect you talk to people in the organization.  I sense the same things.  What’s missing now is fire, desperation, enthusiasm, and emotion.  I feel like we got complacent after the AFCCG and were sort of waiting on the inevitable rematch with KC in the playoffs.  Then we found ourselves 7-6 and turned it on before 13 seconds.  Last year was a practical and emotional mess that culminated with the fury of a woman scorned.  Now this year, it just seems . . . Vacant, and blank.   Something big has to change.  These guys need a jolt.  They’ll probably win the next two, get smoked by Philly, wake up for KC and perhaps stumble in the playoffs or perhaps miss depending on whether we stub our toes in December and January.

 

I really wonder about the mental approach of the QB.  He’s the leader.  We need him to be himself and have fire.  He’s far from the problem, but his attitude sets the tone.   It’s not like “zen Josh” is turning it over less than “sugar high Josh.”  So maybe that’s part of it - have him get amped, cut it loose, and see who it brings along.  And if we people who are stale and just want to go through the motions, then we thank them for their efforts, wish them well, and find someone who, in McD’s terms, is actually hungry. 

[Logic]

The most instructive response to this article, in my opinion, is the Tweet below. 

The Bills are achieving a lot of their "analytics success" on offense (EPA, DVOA, etc) in garbage time.
 

 

[dave mcbride]

19 minutes ago, Royale with Cheese said:

 

Being injured on defense doesn't mean you can't score on offense.  This is basically saying the Bills offense are not capable of winning shoot outs.

Our offense is healthy for the most part.

 

Being injured on defense doesn't mean a defense as bad as the Giants hold you scoreless through 3 quarters.  

 

A) Field position really matters for scoring probability, and B) the Giants' defense is actually pretty good. 

7 minutes ago, Logic said:

The most instructive response to this article, in my opinion, is the Tweet below. 

The Bills are achieving a lot of their "analytics success" on offense (EPA, DVOA, etc) in garbage time.
 

 

In one score games, there is no garbage time. The Bills were down two scores in the fourth vs the Pats. Was the scoring there garbage time? Was the Bills final TD vs the Bengals "garbage time" simply because their defense couldn't make a subsequent stop? 

[boyst]

7 minutes ago, dave mcbride said:

A) Field position really matters for scoring probability, and B) the Giants' defense is actually pretty good. 

In one score games, there is no garbage time. The Bills were down two scores in the fourth vs the Pats. Was the scoring there garbage time? Was the Bills final TD vs the Bengals "garbage time" simply because their defense couldn't make a subsequent stop? 

this is true.

 

i'd argue in the "garbage time" we played better than any other time, too. playing with a purpose.

[Royale with Cheese]

6 minutes ago, dave mcbride said:

A) Field position really matters for scoring probability, and B) the Giants' defense is actually pretty good. 

In one score games, there is no garbage time. The Bills were down two scores in the fourth vs the Pats. Was the scoring there garbage time? Was the Bills final TD vs the Bengals "garbage time" simply because their defense couldn't make a subsequent stop? 

 

The Giants defense is good?  They are 24th in defensive scoring.  21st overall.  30th in turnovers.

 

The Dolphins, Raiders, Cowboys and 49ers put up 30+ on them and weren't held scoreless through 3 quarters.

[Logic]

8 minutes ago, dave mcbride said:

 

In one score games, there is no garbage time. The Bills were down two scores in the fourth vs the Pats. Was the scoring there garbage time? Was the Bills final TD vs the Bengals "garbage time" simply because their defense couldn't make a subsequent stop? 

Fair enough. 

Let's change the phrase to "late in the game when trailing", then.

That's when the defense softens up a bit because it's trying to bleed the clock and prevent big plays.

I think the overriding point is that when opposing defenses are playing the Bills "normally" throughout most of the game, the Bills offense is struggling. Once they soften up a bit at the end, the Bills offense comes to life. 

And even if you reject THAT notion -- even if you grant the benefit of the doubt and say opposing defenses are playing the Bills offense the same way throughout the entire game -- the question still needs to be asked: Why is the Bills offense not able to come to life and start having statistical success and production until they're behind on the scoreboard and reaching desperation mode? Why can't they "turn it on" in more neutral and early-game situations?

[dave mcbride]

26 minutes ago, Royale with Cheese said:

 

The Giants defense is good?  They are 24th in defensive scoring.  21st overall.  30th in turnovers.

 

The Dolphins, Raiders, Cowboys and 49ers put up 30+ on them and weren't held scoreless through 3 quarters.

I always go back to the TB defense of 2019 - the year before Brady got there. They were second in defensive DVOA yet 29th in points given up. That's because the TB quarterback was a turnover machine and opposing defenses scored an unholy number of defensive touchdowns. It skewed everything. A lot of people looked at the counting stats like points allowed and thought they weren't good, but then lo and behold Brady comes on board and the defense is fantastic statistically the next season with the same players. Hmm -- I wonder why. The Giants offense is the worst in the league (it's not even really close) by pretty much every measure, and they put the Giants D in bad situations all of the time. However, if you actually watch the games, Wink Martindale's approach was the first to flummox Shanahan, and the Niners struggled a bit before putting them away given the horrible offense facing them. They played well against Seattle (the offense was horrible), the Bills, Washington, and the Jets. They had no chance against the Cowboys, who scored early and often because the Giants either turned the ball over or couldn't move it at all. The Giants have had 7 out of 9 games where they've thrown for less than 200 yards and two games where they've thrown for less than 100 (including one game where they threw for -9 yards). Pretty sure @GunnerBill would agree with me about the Giants' D. 

 

Now to be fair, I am frustrated with the offense too -- very frustrated. There are real problems with it. But there is some context that I wasn't properly accounting for, and I'm always willing to change my mind if I become aware of evidence that undercuts my gut reactions.

Edited November 9, 2023 by dave mcbride

[RyanC883]

neither OC was great.  Neither had an offense that could both play up-tempo most of the time, while keeping Ds honest with the threat of the run.  

[Royale with Cheese]

28 minutes ago, dave mcbride said:

I always go back to the TB defense of 2019 - the year before Brady got there. They were second in defensive DVOA yet 29th in points given up. That's because the TB quarterback was a turnover machine and opposing defenses scored an unholy number of defensive touchdowns. It skewed everything. A lot of people looked at the counting stats like points allowed and thought they weren't good, but then lo and behold Brady comes on board and the defense is fantastic statistically the next season with the same players. Hmm -- I wonder why. The Giants offense is the worst in the league (it's not even really close) by pretty much every measure, and they put the Giants D in bad situations all of the time. However, if you actually watch the games, Wink Martindale's approach was the first to flummox Shanahan, and the Niners struggled a bit before putting them away given the horrible offense facing them. They played well against Seattle (the offense was horrible), the Bills, Washington, and the Jets. They had no chance against the Cowboys, who scored early and often because the Giants either turned the ball over or couldn't move it at all. The Giants have had 7 out of 9 games where they've thrown for less than 200 yards and two games where they've thrown for less than 100 (including one game where they threw for -9 yards). 

 

So the Bills defense is the reason why the offense isn't scoring?

 

Tampa Bay that year also was 3rd in the league in offensive scoring.  How were they able to score and we aren't?  Our high score in the last 5 games is 24 points.

We had a stretch where we were only scoring like 4 points in the first half on average.  

 

So we aren't an offense that can overcome defensive adversity then it seems.  You're saying our offense is predicated on how the defense plays.