Bengals Early 1.5 Point Favourites — Vegas More Optimistic About the Bills Than Many?

[LABILLBACKER]

9 hours ago, machine gun kelly said:

Home advantage line for years has been 1.5 so Vegas is basically saying it’s an even game.  I watched the Bengals game yesterday and they look more complete than us right now.  That doesn’t mean the Bills can’t come out like they played in the Dolphins game.  This will be our toughest test.

Minimize the incessant Hamlin narrative.  Hope for that good ole revenge factor...and maybe,  just maybe we pull this one out.  

[GoBills808]

3 minutes ago, 90sBills said:

I hear ya. It’ll be tough but I’ll try to live with some anonymous people not believing without seeing receipts. 

In that case let me regale you w how difficult it was for me as a Bills fan to put down 10k on Patriots +345 the other week

[jletha]

10 hours ago, machine gun kelly said:

Home advantage line for years has been 1.5 so Vegas is basically saying it’s an even game.  I watched the Bengals game yesterday and they look more complete than us right now.  That doesn’t mean the Bills can’t come out like they played in the Dolphins game.  This will be our toughest test.

Its also only one game. They have looked downright bad many times this season, including one week prior. Much worse than Buffalo.

 

We will see Sunday.

[Augie]

19 minutes ago, GoBills808 said:

In that case let me regale you w how difficult it was for me as a Bills fan to put down 10k on Patriots +345 the other week

 

But….did you tell your wife?

 

 

  😋

[Reks Ryan]

In general I think Vegas has been more optimistic on the Bills the last 2 seassons  than many of us who follow the team closely.  

Bills were 8 - 10 ATS in 2022, and 3 - 5 ATS so far this year.   So .423 winning % the last 2 seasons.  

 

There were a couple speads recently that seeemd really questionable, Bills minus 5 against Jacksonville and minus 11.5 against the Patriots.    I expected the Bills to win both games, but it seemed like there were factors going into those games that shoudl have made the spreads lower.   Personally, I don't bet against the Bills.   And usually don't bet on the Bills , except for playoffs. And I do that hoping to spend the winnings on SB trip, not necessarily because it's a good bet.

 

 

[Alphadawg7]

Not gonna lie...after the Miami game I felt like we would be heading into this Cincy game not only favorites, but as the much better team.  Today, I don't feel confident in this game.  Can we win, sure...just not heading in with the same confidence I had heading into the Miami game for example.

 

Since our injuries, our defense is a shell of itself and Bengals offense is starting to click again who just had a lot of success against a better Niners defense.  For us to win this game, Allen and the offense need to be on point and just outscore them.  The issue is, the offense has not looked great since the Miami game either.  Against Jags we put up 20, Giants we managed only 14 points, then put up just 25 on Pats and then 24 against the Bucs.  We have not broken 25 since Miami game and only done so in 3 of our 8 games this season.

 

We won't beat the Bengals putting up 20-25 points this week.  So I really hope Dorsey looks at what worked in the first half against the Bucs and builds on that because we need to be at our best to win this game.  And make no mistake about it, this Bengals game is close to a playoff game given the crowded field in the AFC right now.  If we lose this game, we will have 4 losses, all in the AFC and the division will be difficult to win and the Wildcard race will be very crowded with us being behind on tie breakers.  

 

So I just pray Dorsey gets rid of the stupid stuff (like idiotic shotgun runs on the goal line) and focuses on the things that were really working, especially the things we did to get Shakir and Kincaid going as that opened up the whole offense.  And they better keep the foot on the gas the whole time, letting up in the 2nd half allowed the lowly Bucs offense to get back into the game late with a shot to win on the final play.

Edited October 30, 2023 by Alphadawg7

[90sBills]

41 minutes ago, GoBills808 said:

In that case let me regale you w how difficult it was for me as a Bills fan to put down 10k on Patriots +345 the other week

You should stop. Similar to chess one knows not to drag things out. It’s pointless. 

[Tierlifer]

Too many spoilers in this thread of what the final score will be. Guess I shouldn’t bother to watch. 

[HIT BY SPIKES]

11 hours ago, Tierlifer said:

Too many spoilers in this thread of what the final score will be. Guess I shouldn’t bother to watch. 

 

Good idea!!!

[Aussie Joe]

Left nutt time..
 

Which way to go ?

 

My Bills season record versus the spread is 6-2 (Jets and Patriots 👎)

[Doc Brown]

13 hours ago, Reks Ryan said:

In general I think Vegas has been more optimistic on the Bills the last 2 seassons  than many of us who follow the team closely.  

Bills were 8 - 10 ATS in 2022, and 3 - 5 ATS so far this year.   So .423 winning % the last 2 seasons.  

 

There were a couple speads recently that seeemd really questionable, Bills minus 5 against Jacksonville and minus 11.5 against the Patriots.    I expected the Bills to win both games, but it seemed like there were factors going into those games that shoudl have made the spreads lower.   Personally, I don't bet against the Bills.   And usually don't bet on the Bills , except for playoffs. And I do that hoping to spend the winnings on SB trip, not necessarily because it's a good bet.

 

 

Jaguars were an inconsistent team up to that point and we were just coming off of a thrashing of Miami by 28 points.  Patriots were +8.5 (not +11.5) and had lost three in a row being outscored 93-20.  We beat the Patriots the previous two seasons by double digits 4 of 5 times (darn wind game).  I thought both lines were appropriate.  We just screwed the pooch in both games.

[machine gun kelly]

14 hours ago, jletha said:

Its also only one game. They have looked downright bad many times this season, including one week prior. Much worse than Buffalo.

 

We will see Sunday.

No argument brother.  They have looked bad in the beginning of the year while Burrow had that calf injury and he couldn’t drive the ball.  This past Sunday after a bye was instrumental in him looking more healthy.

 

That was the 9ers in San Fran (actually Santa Clara).

[Bleeding Bills Blue]

3 hours ago, machine gun kelly said:

No argument brother.  They have looked bad in the beginning of the year while Burrow had that calf injury and he couldn’t drive the ball.  This past Sunday after a bye was instrumental in him looking more healthy.

 

That was the 9ers in San Fran (actually Santa Clara).

 

When they run the ball well it all clicks for them.  Bottling up mixon and the run game is usually pretty key to putting them behind the sticks.  Burrow getting healthy adds the threat of a scramble that was missing to start the year on those 3rd and mediums.  He's still going to throw it underneath if its there - need to rally to the ball and tackle well.  

 

They also have been generating takeaways.  Need to win the turnover battle first - but this game will come down to 3rd downs and red zone too.  

[Sammy Watkins' Rib]

17 hours ago, Alphadawg7 said:

 The issue is, the offense has not looked great since the Miami game either.  Against Jags we put up 20, Giants we managed only 14 points, then put up just 25 on Pats and then 24 against the Bucs.  We have not broken 25 since Miami game and only done so in 3 of our 8 games this season.

 

 

 

I like it. We are way overdue for a 30+ point game. 

[BearNorth]

Can we make Jordan Phillips inactive for this game?  Can't take many more stupid penalties that keep drives alive.

[machine gun kelly]

19 minutes ago, BearNorth said:

Can we make Jordan Phillips inactive for this game?  Can't take many more stupid penalties that keep drives alive.

No as we’re light in the middle.  I’m sure he’s been in the principal McD’s office talking about stopping the penalties

[newcam2012]

58 minutes ago, Bleeding Bills Blue said:

 

When they run the ball well it all clicks for them.  Bottling up mixon and the run game is usually pretty key to putting them behind the sticks.  Burrow getting healthy adds the threat of a scramble that was missing to start the year on those 3rd and mediums.  He's still going to throw it underneath if its there - need to rally to the ball and tackle well.  

 

They also have been generating takeaways.  Need to win the turnover battle first - but this game will come down to 3rd downs and red zone too.  

Curious to hear what defensive game plan the Bills defense comes up with to stop the Bengals. I would like to hear some thoughts because I'm having difficulty seeing it. 

 

Allen I see is the game(s) they played last year and it was a disaster. Now, the Bills go to their home with devastating injuries in that side of the ball. 

 

Dorsey better have a game plan for that Bengal defense. He better be able to make good in Gabe adjustments. Lou A will mix it up and try to confuse the Bills. He's going to use exotic blitzes and come after Allen. 

[jletha]

59 minutes ago, Bleeding Bills Blue said:

 

When they run the ball well it all clicks for them.  Bottling up mixon and the run game is usually pretty key to putting them behind the sticks.  Burrow getting healthy adds the threat of a scramble that was missing to start the year on those 3rd and mediums.  He's still going to throw it underneath if its there - need to rally to the ball and tackle well.  

 

They also have been generating takeaways.  Need to win the turnover battle first - but this game will come down to 3rd downs and red zone too.  

Im interested to see our dime package with Po as the box safety against Cincy. Seems like a good counter against their WRs. But as you say the key will be winning at the LOS. If we can do that consistently and force some longer 3rd downs I think we can get to them. Im also hopeful for a well-times blitx here and there that McD has shown thus far. The D was really rattled after the injuries but its inevitable that improve with more time to as a unit. They looked much better against TB than they did against NYG and NE, which were worse offenses. Cincy looked dominant last week but they have shown flashes of their "true form" a couple times this year only to then revert the next game.

 

I am really optimistic that the offense will continue to look good.

[Bleeding Bills Blue]

1 hour ago, newcam2012 said:

Curious to hear what defensive game plan the Bills defense comes up with to stop the Bengals. I would like to hear some thoughts because I'm having difficulty seeing it. 

 

Allen I see is the game(s) they played last year and it was a disaster. Now, the Bills go to their home with devastating injuries in that side of the ball. 

 

Dorsey better have a game plan for that Bengal defense. He better be able to make good in Gabe adjustments. Lou A will mix it up and try to confuse the Bills. He's going to use exotic blitzes and come after Allen. 

 

My assumption is zone - try and show some blitz looks on 3rd downs.  

 

Thought allen had a nice game with the blitz playing more spread out as we did against TB.  Cincy has some beef up front that we've had trouble with in the past so getting the ball out quick and getting in rhythm will be key.  With knox out again i suspect we'll see more of the same spread looks.  Buffalo needs to figure out how to run the ball better in this one.  I expect we'll try to get more to the boundaries with cook and WR RPOs outside, as they're stout up the middle.  

[Big Turk]

Not more optimistic than Alex Smith:

 

 

 

https://sports.yahoo.com/former-nfl-qb-alex-smith-124538499.html

Edited October 31, 2023 by Big Turk

[harryS]

Wednesday morning and line is 2.5 (juiced) across the board.  There's been the expected minor movement towards Cincy but not the drastic movement some predicted.  At one point the screen did flash 3s but it was quickly bet back down to 2.5.  Definitely don't see this line becoming -3 (-110), and 3.5 is out of the question barring major new injury news.

 

On 10/30/2023 at 6:59 AM, newcam2012 said:

I don't find the references of last year being pertinent now. The Bills were the super bowl favorites and the darlings on many in the NFL. They were often over bet and the betting lines were often slightly inaccurate. This year isn't the case especially with the injuries. 

 

Given that we are 0-4 against the spread since the injuries, I'd say that we are again overvalued due to the injuries.

 

On 10/30/2023 at 9:36 AM, BuffaloBaumer said:

I have never bet on an NFL game but I think I have to for this one. My biggest fear is putting $500 down and then the Bills lose by 1

 

You should just bet the Bengals moneyline (Bengals to win outright, no spread) then.  It's not usually a recommended bet when you can get -2.5 because you're eating much more juice but given your fears, that's the way to go.

 

On 10/30/2023 at 1:59 PM, Big Turk said:

 

You would win if the line is Bengals -1.5, Bills would have to lose by 2 to lose that bet.

 

He's talking about betting on Cincy, not Buffalo.  He doesn't want to bet $500 on Cincy spread and then have the Bills lose by 1 or 2.  That's a double whammy.

[Dr.Sack]

I think the Bills win and the smart $ on the Bengals is actually stupid $ thinking these are the same teams as last year. 

[nedboy7]

On 10/30/2023 at 3:17 PM, Tierlifer said:

Too many spoilers in this thread of what the final score will be. Guess I shouldn’t bother to watch. 

 

Don't watch.  Start crafting your "why we should fire everyone" posts. 

[Reks Ryan]

On 10/31/2023 at 6:10 AM, Doc Brown said:

Jaguars were an inconsistent team up to that point and we were just coming off of a thrashing of Miami by 28 points.  Patriots were +8.5 (not +11.5) and had lost three in a row being outscored 93-20.  

That’s why 11,5 seemed questionable to me.

[harryS]

On 11/1/2023 at 5:53 AM, harryS said:

Wednesday morning and line is 2.5 (juiced) across the board.  There's been the expected minor movement towards Cincy but not the drastic movement some predicted.  At one point the screen did flash 3s but it was quickly bet back down to 2.5.  Definitely don't see this line becoming -3 (-110), and 3.5 is out of the question barring major new injury news.

 

 

Even the minor movement has been eliminated as we're back to mostly 2s and 1.5s across the board.  As always, lines don't move big the way many fans think they do. 

[Warcodered]

On 10/30/2023 at 4:20 AM, newcam2012 said:

Well I'm a small better and never bet too much. It's all relative. I bet $300. That's a lot for me. 

Come on live a little, $5000 is the proper amount......for reasons.

Edited November 4, 2023 by Warcodered

[newcam2012]

1 hour ago, Warcodered said:

Come on live a little, $5000 is the proper amount......for reasons.

That's way out of my league. 

[buffaloboyinATL]

3 minutes ago, newcam2012 said:

That's way out of my league. 

Smart man. Only bet what you can afford to lose. 

[newcam2012]

On 11/1/2023 at 5:46 PM, Dr.Sack said:

I think the Bills win and the smart $ on the Bengals is actually stupid $ thinking these are the same teams as last year. 

I disagree here. Just look at this season. The Bengals are playing well especially on offense with a healthy Burrow. I believe his passer rating is fantastic the last three games. 

 

The Bengals are at home and that is a nice advantage. Add in all of Buffalo's losses have been away from their home field. That has to be figured into your calculations. 

 

Buffalo has been fairly inconsistent on both sides of the ball. 

 

Last years games also have to be taken into consideration. Coaching, players, schemes, adjustments, game planning, etc...Sure there are many new variables to consider in both sides of the ball. Edge here seems to go to the Bengals because they seemingly already have the winning formula. Now it's up to Buffalo to execute, game plan, and make the proper adjustments. 

 

Lastly, Bills injuries to the defense are definitely game changing in a negative way. Add in a Von that's not even close to being elite. Huge uphill battle for McD to slow down the Bengals offense. Frankly, I don't see this D being successful. I wouldn't be surprised if the Bengals put up 40 plus points. 

 

The Bills offense needs to be a well oiled machine. Almost flawless. I'm advocating for an up tempo offense. Limit what the Bengals D can do. Fast, quick, accurate, RPOs, and take your shots when they are there. Allen has to have great vision this game. Lou A will try to pressure him, confuse him, and frustrate him. Lastly, the Bengals D is poor against running QBs. Allen can easily run for over 50 yards. Force the Bengals to defend Allen's run game. 

 

All in all, I think this line is really strange. I think it's a Bengals -3 all day. 

[Doc Brown]

On 10/30/2023 at 3:51 AM, newcam2012 said:

The line has already moved to -2.5. By kick off the line should be -3.5. 

 

I already hammered the Bengals at -2.5. 

The line's really don't move that much unless there's a major unforeseen injury (usually QB).  Vegas has it down to a science when setting the lines.  It's basically back where it started at Bengals -1.5 points.

[SydneyBillsFan]

On a side note, nearly all of the pundits are tipping the Bengals.

[Generic_Bills_Fan]

4 hours ago, Doc Brown said:

The line's really don't move that much unless there's a major unforeseen injury (usually QB).  Vegas has it down to a science when setting the lines.  It's basically back where it started at Bengals -1.5 points.

Supposedly a lot of the sharp money is on the bills and that’s balancing out a lot of the public betting cincy 

[Generic_Bills_Fan]

12 hours ago, newcam2012 said:

I disagree here. Just look at this season. The Bengals are playing well especially on offense with a healthy Burrow. I believe his passer rating is fantastic the last three games. 

 

The Bengals are at home and that is a nice advantage. Add in all of Buffalo's losses have been away from their home field. That has to be figured into your calculations. 

 

Buffalo has been fairly inconsistent on both sides of the ball. 

 

Last years games also have to be taken into consideration. Coaching, players, schemes, adjustments, game planning, etc...Sure there are many new variables to consider in both sides of the ball. Edge here seems to go to the Bengals because they seemingly already have the winning formula. Now it's up to Buffalo to execute, game plan, and make the proper adjustments. 

 

Lastly, Bills injuries to the defense are definitely game changing in a negative way. Add in a Von that's not even close to being elite. Huge uphill battle for McD to slow down the Bengals offense. Frankly, I don't see this D being successful. I wouldn't be surprised if the Bengals put up 40 plus points. 

 

The Bills offense needs to be a well oiled machine. Almost flawless. I'm advocating for an up tempo offense. Limit what the Bengals D can do. Fast, quick, accurate, RPOs, and take your shots when they are there. Allen has to have great vision this game. Lou A will try to pressure him, confuse him, and frustrate him. Lastly, the Bengals D is poor against running QBs. Allen can easily run for over 50 yards. Force the Bengals to defend Allen's run game. 

 

All in all, I think this line is really strange. I think it's a Bengals -3 all day. 

Cincy hasn’t played particularly well before last week and their SF win is getting overvalued by the more casual bettors imo.  Spread seems just right which is why it hasn’t moved much.  The betting public thinks like you, the sharps don’t

 

Tennessee absolutely obliterated them, arizona played them tough well into the fourth quarter, and they were quite fortunate to sneak past Seattle prior to the niners game. I don’t really understand the notion that they’ve played lights out the last few weeks at all. 

Edited November 5, 2023 by Generic_Bills_Fan

[newcam2012]

3 hours ago, Generic_Bills_Fan said:

Supposedly a lot of the sharp money is on the bills and that’s balancing out a lot of the public betting cincy 

Sharp money is on the over. 

[harryS]

56 minutes ago, newcam2012 said:

Sharp money is on the over. 

 

Absolutely right.

 

4 hours ago, Generic_Bills_Fan said:

Supposedly a lot of the sharp money is on the bills and that’s balancing out a lot of the public betting cincy 

 

This one is more speculative, but why not, let's speculate.  Among public sharps (those that share their picks on podcasts, twitter, etc, after they have already bet), there has been more of a sharp preference for Cincy although it is by no means unanimous as some sharps disagree and back Buffalo.  It's not like the over, which is heavily backed by the sharps.  I do think the public sharps are representative of the overall sharp pool, so why hasn't this line moved when both the public and the sharps favor the Bengals.

 

Ah, here's the rub.  There's a subset of the sharp pool called "syndicates."  These are rich men, many with a background in math and finance -- some come from Wall Street -- and they pool their money together kind of like a hedge fund and have decided they want to conquer NFL betting using mathematical models.  These guys wait to bet later in the week when the sportsbooks have fully removed the limits, so the syndicate can drop $100,000 on the Bills if they want to.

 

Why would the syndicates prefer Buffalo?  Remember, these guys are math nerds.  Buffalo's season-long stats are way better than Cincy's.  They probably have Buffalo favored by 1 in this game or something.

[DuckyBoys]

5 hours ago, Generic_Bills_Fan said:

Cincy hasn’t played particularly well before last week and their SF win is getting overvalued by the more casual bettors imo.  Spread seems just right which is why it hasn’t moved much.  The betting public thinks like you, the sharps don’t

 

Tennessee absolutely obliterated them, arizona played them tough well into the fourth quarter, and they were quite fortunate to sneak past Seattle prior to the niners game. I don’t really understand the notion that they’ve played lights out the last few weeks at all. 

 

Bengals are being over hyped  Typical media spin after a team has a big decisive win  .  Burrow has two really good games this year and some real clunkers .   My biggest worry is can Josh operate efficiently on the road.   He has not played his best on the road this year .  Hopefully rest of the team comes to play and contributes and it does not land all on his back .  That is a tall ask but will see.   Bills need to be able to run today be it conventional or giving Josh some designed runs and hopefully a few scrambles for first downs.