Do you think the offense was better yesterday?

[Einstein]

I made the argument last week that the offense played 'fine'. Points are points whether they are scored in the first half or final minutes. The offense scored 25 and left the field with the lead and under two minutes to play. So I figured lets compare the two.

Week 7 vs Patriots
Points: 25

Offensive EPA/a: .16
First downs: 24

Punts: 1

 

Week 8 vs Bucs

Points: 24

Offensive EPA/a: .09

First downs: 25

Punts: 4

This weeks offense did have 88 more yards, and also involved more receiving options, though this effort resulted in 1 less point, a lower EPA/a and more punts than last week. 

We did have a large lead this week, which can contribute to taking the foot off the pedal. However, I didn't get the sense we were doing that until the very last drive. We were running 11 personnel with Josh in shotgun up until the second to last drive.

PS, our no-huddle work was magnificent:
 

 

 

[D. L. Hot-Flamethrower]

Yes they were more diverse and more energetic. Josh especially seemed alive as did the others who were more involved. McD stifled it with his fourth down decisions and allowed TB to stay in the game.

Edited October 27, 2023 by D. L. Hot-Flamethrower

[Einstein]

1 minute ago, Process said:

If the Bills needed to score 38 yesterday they would have. 

You feel like the offense was purposefully not scoring the last quarter and a half?

The staff wanted to practice punting? 

[Roundybout]

Lies, damn lies, and statistics.

 

The offense last night, at least through 3 quarters, finally looked like the offenses of 2020-2022

[BillsFan130]

Way better. Just took the gas off the Pedel too much the last 25 minutes.

 

I hope to see a lot of 11 personnel/up tempo going forward 

[jletha]

The offense played much better, it was obvious to anyone that watched. Im a big proponent of EPA/play but it doesnt encapsulate the EPA that was generated in-structure vs out of structure and how the offense looked overall. Everything against NE felt hard. The entire offense was Josh beating a rushing, rolling right and looking for someone downfield. Yesterday was executed much more in structure. Yes the second half wasnt great, drives stalled. But the offense played better than they had in the last three weeks.

 

Now... I do think the offense played better against NE than people want to admit. So while they played better it may not be *that* much better.

Edited October 27, 2023 by jletha

[The Wiz]

They also had a turn over on downs at the 1 yard line because of stupid play calling two plays in a row and 4 punts from mid field because Tampa did very little to worry about them on defense (and they would have gone for it on 2 of the 4 4th downs if they were behind).

 

EPA is meh.  Still how I feel about DVOA.  They looked in control last night when they wanted to be.  They looked like they struggled to move the ball on sunday regardless of how many points they scored.

Edited October 27, 2023 by The Wiz

[Big Turk]

I think the difference is when you are in control of the game, you have less need for trying to generate big plays later in the game so you are unlikely to try for them as much since the risk/reward ratio is far higher in favor of risk.  This obviously would lead to a lower EPA/play than when you are behind and constantly trying to throw and maybe taking some chances downfield.  I think the better metric would be comparing 1st half EPA/play versus 2nd half EPA/play over the past 3 games versus last night.  The Bills offense being on fire in the 2nd half of those games and taking more risks since they had no choice and needed points fast, helped boost that number a little bit artificially, IMO.

 

IMO, if the Bills wanted to score more points, they easily could have taken a riskier approach and done so. Based on the flow of the game, it was not needed.

Edited October 27, 2023 by Big Turk

[Franco_92]

3 minutes ago, Process said:

No better example of EPA being useless than right here. 

 

If the Bills needed to score 38 yesterday they would have. 

 

Yes it was better, significantly so. 

speaking in absolutes about any stat is as bad one way (the stat is perfect, which nobody says) as it is the other way (the stat is useless, which a lot of people say)

 

It's not a useless stat, but like any stat its predictive power becomes much stronger as you increase sample size 

[Logic]

Sometimes the feel of the game can be seen or sensed better with the eye than with stats or analytics.

Whereas last week, and in the weeks that preceded it, it felt like a struggle for the Bills to move the ball until deep into the third quarter, this week, it did not. Whereas the past few weeks, they lacked rhythm and identity, last night they did not.

Josh Allen also specifically looked better. More comfortable, more decisive, and had the quickest time-to-throw of his entire career. He was fully in command. I don't think many would say that about the past few weeks.

Because of the offense taking their foot off the pedal to some degree, switching to more of a ball control, bleed the clock mode, and taking a bit of air out of the football, the metrics wound up being what they wound up being. But the eye test and the gut feel watching last night's game both tell me that the offense was significantly better, more comfortable, more effective, in a better rhythm, and that I'd bet the players would all say the same thing.

[Process]

1 minute ago, Einstein said:

You feel like the offense was purposefully not scoring the last quarter and a half?

The staff wanted to practice punting? 

McDermott is one of the most aggressive coaches in the NFL on 4th down historically. We punted 4 times from midfield. We would have went for it if our defense wasn't completely shutting down the TB offense. 

 

It took an unbelievably unlucky series of events just for the Bucs to have a shot at a hail Mary. 

 

At any point yesterday did you feel like we were going to lose that game? We were in control.

[Big Turk]

1 minute ago, Logic said:

Sometimes the feel of the game can be seen or sensed better with the eye than with stats or analytics.

Whereas last week, and in the weeks that preceded it, it felt like a struggle for the Bills to move the ball until deep into the third quarter, this week, it did not. Whereas the past few weeks, they lacked rhythm and identity, last night they did not.

Josh Allen also specifically looked better. More comfortable, more decisive, and had the quickest time-to-throw of his entire career. He was fully in command. I don't think many would say that about the past few weeks.

Because of the offense taking their foot off the pedal to some degree, switching to more of a ball control, bleed the clock mode, and taking a bit of air out of the football, the metrics wound up being what they wound up being. But the eye test and the gut feel watching last night's game both tell me that the offense was significantly better, more comfortable, more effective, in a better rhythm, and that I'd bet the players would all say the same thing.

 

We also saw how that helped the defense as well as they never trailed in the game and weren't chasing things the whole game.

[Gregg]

Yes, it was better. They got off to a fast start and the Bills were able to play the game with the lead except for the brief time it was 10-10. 

[The Firebaugh Kid]

The tempo really works for them. This will be the norm going forward.

[Einstein]

6 minutes ago, Big Turk said:

I think the difference is when you are in control of the game, you have less need for trying to generate big plays later in the game so you are unlikely to try for them as much since the risk/reward ratio is far higher in favor of risk. 

This was the first thing I thought of. But if you look at the tape, they were in attack mode until the very last drive. They were running 10 and 11-Personnel throughout. 

Aaron Quinn attacked the "foot off the gas" theory in a long Twitter thread today.
 

 

Edited October 27, 2023 by Einstein

[somnus00]

Hard to say for me. The first 35 minutes, the Bills looked like the team that played against the Dolphins. The last 25 minutes, they looked like the team that played Jags, Giants, and Pats.

 

Gabe was used in different ways. Shakir and Kincaid are finally getting more touches. Josh was quick and decisive (with strategic runs and slides thrown in). So there certainly were some improvements in the offense's play which leaves me optimistic, but cautiously so.

[RobbRiddick]

They didn't look like they were playing in mud this week. Much more fluid and looks like they were in rhythm. Liked the fact that Josh spread the ball around. Seeing Kincaid playing well again was great, and also great to see Shakir having a good game. Josh seemed to enjoy having that early designed run. It's almost like he doesn't feel quite himself unless he gets to unleash his legs early. I've never been a fan of the designed runs but I'm happy for him to scramble and scramble every time he sees a wide running lane develop, so long as he slides/goes out of bounds. Must be so demoralizing for the defense to see him continually picking up big chunks of 'easy' yards on them

[Process]

7 minutes ago, Franco_92 said:

speaking in absolutes about any stat is as bad one way (the stat is perfect, which nobody says) as it is the other way (the stat is useless, which a lot of people say)

 

It's not a useless stat, but like any stat its predictive power becomes much stronger as you increase sample size 

Useless is too strong of a word, I agree

[Franco_92]

4 minutes ago, Process said:

At any point yesterday did you feel like we were going to lose that game? We were in control.

I said this earlier, but there was not one single play during the course of the game that you could convince me to say "I wish the situation were reversed and we were in the Buccs' shoes." 

[Big Turk]

2 minutes ago, Einstein said:

This was the first thing I thought of. But if you look at the tape, they were in attack mode until the very last drive. They were running 11-Personnel throughout. 

Aaron Quinn attacked the "foot off the gas" theory in a long Twitter thread today.
 

 

 

The defense also is likely to be playing them differently with a lead...perhaps they spend more time trying to make sure the Bills don't get it all back on one play and play softer coverage.  

 

There are a myriad of differences that go into it.  If I had to choose, I would take last night's offense over any of the last 3 weeks, IMO.

[Franco_92]

Just now, Process said:

Useless is too strong of a word, I agree

Sorry for being pedantic. It's definitely true that the offense was better yesterday, and the discrepancy is worth talking about 

[NewEra]

I thought our offense was very good in the first half.  Having a 2 TD lead led McD to play more conservative and Dorsey obliged.  

my one dislike- I would’ve liked to see Cook receive a few of Gabes targets.  He’s really good and can be great if Dorsey can align the stars.  
 

But 👍🏻 to gabe. He played one of his best games and did a lot of what we all say he can’t do. Now just be consistent. 🤣 

Was happy to finally see get shakir involved.  He ran hard and strong and I love him in RAC situations. Short legs mcgee can move.  I’d like to see him play about the same snaps, maybe more going forward.  Sherfield played the slot when shakir came out.  I’d like to know the run/pass% when Sherfield was in.  

 

Did we chip with TEs or backs much?  I thought our OL played pretty good overall after having 3 poor outings in a row.

 

KINGcaid it is. He’s gonna be the man.  Stay healthy kid.  

 

 

[Allen2D̶i̶g̶g̶s̶TBD]

The offense was more varied and produced consistent positive yardage even if we struggled to get in the endzone.

 

Punting twice in Bucs territory on 4th and short is the reason why this game wasn't a blowout.

Edited October 27, 2023 by Allen2Diggs

[Bangarang]

1st half was better but still some frustrating moments. 
 

Dorsey is still a poor play caller as evidenced by the shotgun runs from the goal line and constant WR screens to Diggs that never go anywhere.

 

Feels like we see the same plays on a weekly basis.

[Bruffalo]

Allen is the best when he's up tempo and able to audible to what he's seeing.  Dorsey called a pretty good game, but we still see some dumb plays that just don't work for whatever reason, and they have basically never worked.  

 

He needs to be a little less stubborn and move to what the team is best at.

[DabillsDaBillsDaBills]

2 minutes ago, Process said:

McDermott is one of the most aggressive coaches in the NFL on 4th down historically. We punted 4 times from midfield. We would have went for it if our defense wasn't completely shutting down the TB offense. 

 

It took an unbelievably unlucky series of events just for the Bucs to have a shot at a hail Mary. 

 

At any point yesterday did you feel like we were going to lose that game? We were in control.

 

McD skews the stats on his 4th down decisions by taking delay of game penalties in situations that we should really be going for it. 

 

4th and 2 from the TB 44 is just about the perfect scenario to go for it. McD takes a delay of game penalty and now it's 4th and 7 from the 49. The 4th down models only look at the actual play (4th and 7) and determines he made the correct decision to punt. 

 

For OP's point, I agree this game was overall very similar to the Pats game for the offense if we average out what happened over the course of the game. Last week the offense started slow and finished strong, this week we started strong and finished slow (exacerbated by McD's cowardice on 4th downs). 

 

The offense played well enough to win both games even if they were not dominant. The DEF was much better this week 

[Big Turk]

1 minute ago, DabillsDaBillsDaBills said:

 

McD skews the stats on his 4th down decisions by taking delay of game penalties in situations that we should really be going for it. 

 

4th and 2 from the TB 44 is just about the perfect scenario to go for it. McD takes a delay of game penalty and now it's 4th and 7 from the 49. The 4th down models only look at the actual play (4th and 7) and determines he made the correct decision to punt. 

 

For OP's point, I agree this game was overall very similar to the Pats game for the offense if we average out what happened over the course of the game. Last week the offense started slow and finished strong, this week we started strong and finished slow (exacerbated by McD's cowardice on 4th downs). 

 

The offense played well enough to win both games even if they were not dominant. The DEF was much better this week 

 

Lots of coaches do the same thing in those situations. I see it almost every game I watch. It gives the punter extra room to operate.

[juno999]

That was Allen's best game since the Dolphins game.  He made quick decisions and got rid of the ball very quickly.  I think 11 personnel should be their main personnel grouping going forward.  Kincaid and even Shakir are making plays for them.

[Big Turk]

2 minutes ago, Einstein said:

I think I accidentally deleted my reply to you. Apologies.

 

That was my original thought (we pulled back on aggressiveness). But if you look at the tape, we didn't. We ran 10 and 11 personnel throughout, until the very last drive.

Aaron Quinn did a long Twitter thread dispelling the 'foot off the gas' theory.
 

 

 

I am talking about in situations where the other teams have leads.  They likely play softer against us to prevent a big play which then makes it somewhat easier for us...

 

Numbers are numbers, but overall the Bills would win far more games with the offense from yesterday versus the offense from the last 3 weeks.

[FireChans]

39 minutes ago, Einstein said:

I made the argument last week that the offense played 'fine'. Points are points whether they are scored in the first half or final minutes. The offense scored 25 and left the field with the lead and under two minutes to play. So I figured lets compare the two.

Week 7 vs Patriots
Points: 25

Offensive EPA/a: .16
First downs: 24

Punts: 1

 

Week 8 vs Bucs

Points: 24

Offensive EPA/a: .09

First downs: 25

Punts: 4

This weeks offense did have 88 more yards, and also involved more receiving options, though this effort resulted in 1 less point, a lower EPA/a and more punts than last week. 

We did have a large lead this week, which can contribute to taking the foot off the pedal. However, I didn't get the sense we were doing that until the very last drive. We were running 11 personnel with Josh in shotgun up until the second to last drive.

PS, our no-huddle work was magnificent:
 

 

 

ALL THIS PROVES IS THAT EPA SUCKS AS A CATCH ALL STAT.

22 minutes ago, Einstein said:

This was the first thing I thought of. But if you look at the tape, they were in attack mode until the very last drive. They were running 10 and 11-Personnel throughout. 

Aaron Quinn attacked the "foot off the gas" theory in a long Twitter thread today.
 

 

ALL THIS PROVES IS THAT AARON QUINN IS AN EPA NERD

[MasterStrategist]

36 minutes ago, Einstein said:

I made the argument last week that the offense played 'fine'. Points are points whether they are scored in the first half or final minutes. The offense scored 25 and left the field with the lead and under two minutes to play. So I figured lets compare the two.

Week 7 vs Patriots
Points: 25

Offensive EPA/a: .16
First downs: 24

Punts: 1

 

Week 8 vs Bucs

Points: 24

Offensive EPA/a: .09

First downs: 25

Punts: 4

This weeks offense did have 88 more yards, and also involved more receiving options, though this effort resulted in 1 less point, a lower EPA/a and more punts than last week. 

We did have a large lead this week, which can contribute to taking the foot off the pedal. However, I didn't get the sense we were doing that until the very last drive. We were running 11 personnel with Josh in shotgun up until the second to last drive.

PS, our no-huddle work was magnificent:
 

 

 

It should be obvious, definitely better.

 

We took our foot off the gas pedal, and went way too conservative with a 14 point lead.  TB basically ate up 8-9 min of the 4th qtr with their 1 drive (wo looking up the exact time).

 

If anything we can gripe about their "conservative" playcalls that led to punting on consecutive 4th and short in opponent territory.

 

The offense moved the ball at will for most of the game.  Definitely struggled against NE, Gmen, and Jax at even 3 and outs (did we even have any last night?), not to mention other execution.

 

Up tempo / getting to the line of scrimmage sooner, was a clear driver of success.

 

 

[Warriorspikes51]

Allen should have had 400 yards passing the way it looked.
 

The offense needs to be a mix of no huddle hurry up and regular. That should really stress defenses

[Drew21PA]

Last week we played from behind though - they went conservative in the late 3rd to 4th

[Warriorspikes51]

Who knew….suddenly we have multiple WR’s that are reasonably good?  
 

Kincaid, Davis, Shakir should all be getting targets regularly in the up tempo offense

 

Harty showed an absolutely insane amount of short area quickness on PR

 

would like to see him used on screens and sweeps a few times per game

[Einstein]

20 minutes ago, Big Turk said:

 

I am talking about in situations where the other teams have leads.  They likely play softer against us to prevent a big play which then makes it somewhat easier for us...

 

Numbers are numbers, but overall the Bills would win far more games with the offense from yesterday versus the offense from the last 3 weeks.

Gotcha. I think that is a valid hypothesis. 

[Miyagi-Do Karate]

34 minutes ago, Allen2Diggs said:

The offense was more varied and produced consistent positive yardage even if we struggled to get in the endzone.

 

Punting twice in Bucs territory on 4th and short is the reason why this game wasn't a blowout.

agreed. They go for it either or both times, and we win by 3 or more scores. 

[TheBrownBear]

I thought we were much better, bordering on elite, until we got to 24 and seemed to get a little sloppy. 

 

Also, just me, or did it seem that Josh was trying to force feed Diggs over the last 1.5 quarters and that sort of hindered our momentum?

[Aimee75]

My god.

 

Yes, yes the offense was better yesterday. They literally did what people on this forum have been asking for, and that was to put up points EARLY and get things going early. Do I think they left some points off the board? Yes. Was there some boneheaded plays in there? Sure, like the shotgun 3rd down play in the redzone or the weird play that ended in a sack before the two minute warning, but for the most part they were excellent.

 

 

[Jauronimo]

How is this even a question?

[LABILLBACKER]

Josh and the offense was in a zone during the 1st half.  But after we got to 24, we definitely took our foot off the pedal.  Without those two 4th down bail outs, we should've won 31-10.