Do you think the offense was better yesterday?

[BillsSbSoon]

Yes absolutely. Josh was in command with the up tempo and calling it at the line. Dorsey got more diverse with his calls and broke out of some tendencies particularly the rpo stuff when it looked like our usual run from shotgun. But we do not play well when we take our foot off the pedal, it’s happened time and again with McDermott. It should’ve been a big blowout win and instead we were almost a third straight game with the ball at the goalline with the game on the line. Just baffling 

[Scott7975]

Yes, the offense was better. Stats aside did you not see Josh more poised, more decisive, quicker to get the pass off, more confident, and make better throws?  I did.  Did you not see other players besides Diggs stepping up? Shakir, Kincaid, even Davis.  I did. Did you not see Josh take off with the run lane when it was there? I did. Josh was also making better throws on the run. I'm not sure if this is true or not but the oline looked better to me yesterday.  Josh didn't seem to be under as much pressure as last week. The holes in the run game looked better, but again I don't know if that part is true or not. 

 

Now stats...

 

88 yards more offense

6 yards per play, was 5 against Pats. Full yard difference

3rd down efficiency 53%, was 41% against Pats. 12% difference

 

We had the lead the entire game as opposed to be behind the entire game

 

Dorsey was still Dorsey.  Shot gun hand off at the goal line.

 

This was also a short week.  However, I think the Pats know the Bills better and probably have a better defense so that kind of washes.  Also home versus away. Tampa also had the number 1 red zone defense.

 

Eye test as well as some other things, the offense was clearly better.  EPA can kiss my ass.  People touting EPA of the Bills being one of the best weeks 5-7, then I show some EPA showing the Bills being one of the worst at weeks 5-7.  

Edited October 27, 2023 by Scott7975

[Mango]

Yes, I think it was. My go to, when you have a great QB, is to spread the ball around. You don't just make the defense def

 

Mahomes and Brady have made careers at being willing to throw anybody the ball, at any time, in any situation, then if it doesn't work out holding that pass catcher responsible. The inverse is Rodgers, who is still remarkable, but has also been very open about not throwing the ball to certain players and calling out his FO. Rodgers has a ton of individual awards, Brady and Mahomes have multiple SB's. I don't believe that is a coincidence. 

 

(Worth noting that JuJu is getting a ton of hate in New England right now)

 

One thing I noticed last night was how engaged Josh was when the defense was on the field. For years it feels like he mostly sits alone on the bench. At least that is what the TV seems to show. But last night he was with Brady and "Other Allen" a bunch, and we seemed to see him a ton talking to his WR's about what they are seeing out in coverage. Both were a very welcome change. Just a lot more energy from some of the skill positions on the sidelines. 

That alone makes them better going forward. 

 

 

[78thealltimegreat]

It is very hard to stop this offense when Allen is a threat to run. You saw on Daltons TD pass Levonte David who is one of the top 5 or so linebackers in the league still was caught in no man’s land as he had to worry about Josh taking off.

3 times you had it 4th and 2 or less if anyone would be good at the Brotherly Shove it would be a team with a 6’5 qb that reportedly deadlifts over 500 lbs. 

 

So yes just a simply change of pace made it much smoother.

Edited October 27, 2023 by 78thealltimegreat

[Chaos]

2 hours ago, Einstein said:

I made the argument last week that the offense played 'fine'. Points are points whether they are scored in the first half or final minutes. The offense scored 25 and left the field with the lead and under two minutes to play. So I figured lets compare the two.

Week 7 vs Patriots
Points: 25

Offensive EPA/a: .16
First downs: 24

Punts: 1

 

Week 8 vs Bucs

Points: 24

Offensive EPA/a: .09

First downs: 25

Punts: 4

This weeks offense did have 88 more yards, and also involved more receiving options, though this effort resulted in 1 less point, a lower EPA/a and more punts than last week. 

We did have a large lead this week, which can contribute to taking the foot off the pedal. However, I didn't get the sense we were doing that until the very last drive. We were running 11 personnel with Josh in shotgun up until the second to last drive.

PS, our no-huddle work was magnificent:
 

 

 

It seems many fans are under the impression that points scored in the first quarter count more than points scored in the fourth quarter.   Over the course of 60 minutes, the offense was not meaningfully better than against the Patriots over the course of 60 minutes. Hence, 25 points vs 24 points.   

But clearly the offense came out much better in this game than last week.  In any case the offense is not the problem for the Bills. The problem is defense and critical situtional coaching.  

[Einstein]

7 minutes ago, Chaos said:

It seems many fans are under the impression that points scored in the first quarter count more than points scored in the fourth quarter.   

Yes. Perhaps a form of the cognitive bias known as Primacy Effect.

[thewookie1]

What differs between the Patriots game and the Bucs game is how effective the offense played and how it looked play by play. 
 

Against the Bucs every drive felt like it could get somewhere, even if they stalled it still looked clean.

 

Against the Patriots the offense looked as if it were running through quick sand and every play was like pulling teeth. It felt like Allen was walking up a downward escalator. The two exemptions are the two hurry up drives that gave them 15 points in 4 minutes. 
 

When Dorsey doesn’t keep Allen waiting until the last second for calls and they spread the defense; he can accurately dissect a defense far better than when he has 10 secs to read, adjust and snap.

[PayDaBill$]

There def  was an improvement, spreading the ball & going up tempo. Dorsey still makes boneheaded calls though and we did revert back to Diggs-centric later in the 2nd.  I said it before Brady made a killin’ for years spreading the wealth and taking what’s there….
 

Shakir and Kincaid are more than sound targets as is Davis if you use him underneath. He’s not a great route runner but he’s a big strong target. 

Edited October 27, 2023 by PayDaBill$

[FireChans]

24 minutes ago, Chaos said:

It seems many fans are under the impression that points scored in the first quarter count more than points scored in the fourth quarter.   Over the course of 60 minutes, the offense was not meaningfully better than against the Patriots over the course of 60 minutes. Hence, 25 points vs 24 points.   

But clearly the offense came out much better in this game than last week.  In any case the offense is not the problem for the Bills. The problem is defense and critical situtional coaching.  

It wasn’t meaningfully better except for the career days for like 3 receivers, way more yards per play, way more yards per pass, way better on third down, more first downs. 
 

Got it.

[Einstein]

5 minutes ago, FireChans said:

It wasn’t meaningfully better except for the career days for like 3 receivers, way more yards per play, way more yards per pass, way better on third down, more first downs. 
 

Got it.

 

How many more points?

[Sharky7337]

2 hours ago, Einstein said:

You feel like the offense was purposefully not scoring the last quarter and a half?

The staff wanted to practice punting? 

This is how i feel.

 

We still only saw one good half of football. And it looked nicer but really wasnt any better overall because we almost lost. Again.

[Jauronimo]

3 minutes ago, FireChans said:

It wasn’t meaningfully better except for the career days for like 3 receivers, way more yards per play, way more yards per pass, way better on third down, more first downs. 
 

Got it.

What does the EPA say about drinking my own piss?  

1 minute ago, Einstein said:

 

How many more points?

Do you want to see more of the offense that took the field in Foxboro or more of the offense we saw last night as we face Cincinatti?

[FireChans]

3 minutes ago, Einstein said:

 

How many more points?

More than the team they were playing against.

[BaaadThingsMan]

Mostly.

 

I loved the 2 seconds to release.  Keep that up.

 

I liked the tempo and getting more people involved.

 

I would still like to see more Cook in the passing game and maybe even a few more runs. 

 

 

[FireChans]

6 minutes ago, Jauronimo said:

What does the EPA say about drinking my own piss?  

Do you want to see more of the offense that took the field in Foxboro or more of the offense we saw last night as we face Cincinatti?

I want to just watch a live EPA chart go up and down. That’s football baby.

[Jauronimo]

4 minutes ago, FireChans said:

More than the team they were playing against.

The offense's finest play in the New England game was Poyer forcing a fumble at the 20.  Major EPA boost in a game we could have easily lost by 2 scores.  

 

I shudder to think what our EPA could have been if we were playing down 14 points and needing to go for it on every 4th and short in the second half.  Coulda been huge! Playing with leads and complementary football is bad for EPA. 

[Jauronimo]

40 minutes ago, Einstein said:

Yes. Perhaps a form of the cognitive bias known as Primacy Effect.

Its a bad analogy to cite the primacy effect in this context for obvious reasons, but lets entertain this stupidity: were the primacy effect at play in this comparison, wouldn't our bias be to imprint on the earlier game in New England and discount the new information of last nights performance as less relevant?

 

Or are you suggesting that we imprinted the first half of the Bucs game into our long-term memory and are too rigid to deal with the subsequent half of football played 15 minutes later?  

[Einstein]

30 minutes ago, BaaadThingsMan said:

I would still like to see more Cook in the passing game and maybe even a few more runs. 

 

It’s difficult to do, because he is a bad pass blocker. When the opponent brings more rushers, the RB has to stay in and protect. He struggles.

[HOUSE]

I give them a B-

[nedboy7]

Felt great until the 24-10 lead got to 24-18. Then real panic set in about another historic collapse possibility. 

[John from Riverside]

Absolutely was
 

They took the foot off the gas

[Beck Water]

3 hours ago, BillsFan130 said:

Way better. Just took the gas off the Pedel too much the last 25 minutes.

 

I hope to see a lot of 11 personnel/up tempo going forward 

 

So Greg Cosell had a bunch of interesting stuff to say about the impact of going up tempo on the opponent's defense and also about Kincaid and Shakir.

 

https://www.buffalobills.com/video/one-bills-live

[billsfan89]

The offense was much better. They scored 17 in the first half and then scored a TD to go up 14 in the first drive of the second half. The offense also got a critical first down late in the game to Diggs which effectively forced the Bucs into a hail mary situation. The issue was they stalled after the TD drive. Three straight punts when all they needed was a field goal to take a three-possession lead. The Bills did a great job of getting Davis, Shakir and Kincaid involved while still getting Diggs his spots. They also got Cook decent yardage on the ground with 4.8 ypc. They just needed one more good drive but that blunder to close the 3rd really killed them. 

 

I think this game the offense looked more confident and attacking they just made a blunder at the end of the third that cost them the chance to go up 3 possessions with less time left. Both sides of the ball looked better, not great but significantly improved. 

[Einstein]

55 minutes ago, Jauronimo said:

Its a bad analogy to cite the primacy effect in this context for obvious reasons, but lets entertain this stupidity: were the primacy effect at play in this comparison, wouldn't our bias be to imprint on the earlier game in New England and discount the new information of last nights performance as less relevant?

 

No. And i'll ignore the insult. Primacy effect is a short-term effect (it is sequential of one event). A prior game would not be relevant.

 

Psychology of Sport and Exercise 8 (2007) 477–489 Study

"Primacy effects were observed regardless of the soccer experience of the participants and the judgement mode (end-of-sequence versus step-by-step).... This finding has a number of implications. First, it suggests that the way in which athletes’ abilities are judged may be biased by the order in which their performances are judged. The results indicate that it may be more beneficial for an athlete to attempt to start strongly than to start poorly, as this will produce a more favourable impression in perceivers."

https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/19437187/

[Generic_Bills_Fan]

1 hour ago, Chaos said:

It seems many fans are under the impression that points scored in the first quarter count more than points scored in the fourth quarter.   Over the course of 60 minutes, the offense was not meaningfully better than against the Patriots over the course of 60 minutes. Hence, 25 points vs 24 points.   

But clearly the offense came out much better in this game than last week.  In any case the offense is not the problem for the Bills. The problem is defense and critical situtional coaching.  

Just looking at total points is very flawed also as any team will get more conservative up two scores against a bad offense…the offense was objectively better against the bucs who are coincidentally a better defense than the pats as well.  

[FireChans]

2 minutes ago, Einstein said:

 

No. And i'll ignore the insult. Primacy effect is a short-term effect (it is sequential of one event). A prior game would not be relevant.

 

Psychology of Sport and Exercise 8 (2007) 477–489 Study

"Primacy effects were observed regardless of the soccer experience of the participants and the judgement mode (end-of-sequence versus step-by-step).... This finding has a number of implications. First, it suggests that the way in which athletes’ abilities are judged may be biased by the order in which their performances are judged. The results indicate that it may be more beneficial for an athlete to attempt to start strongly than to start poorly, as this will produce a more favourable impression in perceivers."

https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/19437187/

The primacy effect would apply to the players as well right?

 

Like the defense and the Pats two weeks ago would be like “man these guys ***** suck.”

 

Meanwhile, the defense and the Bucs would be like “man, these guys are killing it.”

 

Right? 

[Einstein]

2 minutes ago, FireChans said:

The primacy effect would apply to the players as well right?

To the observer - yes.

[FireChans]

2 minutes ago, Einstein said:

To the observer - yes.

They are observing the game too

[Repulsif]

3 hours ago, Process said:

At any point yesterday did you feel like we were going to lose that game? We were in control.

honestly, after the Bucs 2 point conversion, I felt the "here we go again last second TD ala Murray"

didn't you ?

the Bills were in control a major part of the game, until the moment they "wanted" to be in control, slowing drives, punting in a not so bad situation, and that's exactly what they failed and why it was so close at the end

= don't force yourself to try to keep in control things you can't, it's a recipe for a failure, and it was close

[Dr. Who]

2 minutes ago, Repulsif said:

honestly, after the Bucs 2 point conversion, I felt the "here we go again last second TD ala Murray"

didn't you ?

the Bills were in control a major part of the game, until the moment they "wanted" to be in control, slowing drives, punting in a not so bad situation, and that's exactly what they failed and why it was so close at the end

= don't force yourself to try to keep in control things you can't, it's a recipe for a failure, and it was close

That's good life advice. And trying to be in control resulted in overly cautious, conservative choices.

[716to540]

Yes. Yes I do

 

[90sBills]

It was a lot better than it has been since the Miami game. They need to beat Cincy next week to show they can compete with the big boys this season. 

[nedboy7]

1 hour ago, Einstein said:

 

It’s difficult to do, because he is a bad pass blocker. When the opponent brings more rushers, the RB has to stay in and protect. He struggles.

is that more of an issue of instinct, knowledge or desire? 

[Jauronimo]

19 minutes ago, Einstein said:

 

No. And i'll ignore the insult. Primacy effect is a short-term effect (it is sequential of one event). A prior game would not be relevant.

 

Psychology of Sport and Exercise 8 (2007) 477–489 Study

"Primacy effects were observed regardless of the soccer experience of the participants and the judgement mode (end-of-sequence versus step-by-step).... This finding has a number of implications. First, it suggests that the way in which athletes’ abilities are judged may be biased by the order in which their performances are judged. The results indicate that it may be more beneficial for an athlete to attempt to start strongly than to start poorly, as this will produce a more favourable impression in perceivers."

https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/19437187/

So in other words, the primacy effect has no impact on assessing the offense in week 7 vs. week 8 by your own admission.  Which was my point.

 

Digging deep into the ultimate frisbee studies again I see. 

 

Quote

Abstract

We examined the influence of order effects on assessments of sporting ability. Club-standard ultimate frisbee players (n = 240) viewed footage of a target player performing a series of ultimate frisbee skills. Participants viewed either a declining (successful to unsuccessful) pattern of performance or an ascending (unsuccessful to successful) pattern. Ratings were made on three descriptors of ultimate frisbee ability. One group of participants made ratings at the end of the sequence of clips, one group updated their ratings after each clip in a step-by-step manner, and one group used an extended step-by-step processing strategy. Finally, a fourth group made end-of-sequence ratings, but a delay condition was used to control for the time taken to make step-by-step ratings. Analyses of covariance (order vs. judgement condition) were conducted on the ratings. Results revealed primacy effects for the ratings of the target player in the end-of-sequence and delay conditions, and in the first step-by-step condition, but no order effects in the second step-by-step condition. Findings indicate order effects can be reduced by using a more thorough step-by-step processing strategy.

 

 

[Mikie2times]

I mean, we likely lose that game against an average team. Our offense is largely healthy and not dominating enough to make up for our depleted defense which is looking more bottom of the league. I would hope they would have been dominating enough to do so against that poor of a team. I feel like this win is fools gold. It's says a lot when you think you played really well and very well could have lost. 

Edited October 28, 2023 by Mikie2times

[HappyDays]

The offense we ran last night is probably our best shot at winning games given the current personnel, but it is still way too reliant on perfect execution on long drives and at least a couple Superman plays from Allen. We have completely lost our deep passing offense. Diggs and Davis are not YAC specialists so quick passes to them is good for getting into manageable down distances, but as we saw last night any little miscue or failure in execution leads to a stalled drive.

 

Then again other than Miami and maybe Philadelphia every offense is struggling with deep passing right now, so this might just be the new world in the NFL. And if that's the case they have to make getting a true elite YAC specialist a priority. A lot of those RPO quick passes to Davis could have gone to the house if thrown to an explosive player.

[Einstein]

12 minutes ago, nedboy7 said:

is that more of an issue of instinct, knowledge or desire? 

 

Gosh, I honestly don’t know.

[Chaos]

48 minutes ago, Generic_Bills_Fan said:

Just looking at total points is very flawed also as any team will get more conservative up two scores against a bad offense…the offense was objectively better against the bucs who are coincidentally a better defense than the pats as well.  

I don't think you know what objectively means. 

2 hours ago, FireChans said:

It wasn’t meaningfully better except for the career days for like 3 receivers, way more yards per play, way more yards per pass, way better on third down, more first downs. 
 

Got it.

It was not that bad against the Pats =25 points. (even with Murray and Bass leaving points on the field)  Q4 against the Pats was 10x better than Q4 against the Bucs.  I did not say the offense wasn't good in either game. They ended up with similar results, because the combined combination of coaching and execution over the course of 60 minutes totalled the same basic outcome.  It is clear you don't 'got it'

 

Edited October 28, 2023 by Chaos

[HappyDays]

You could make an argument that the only difference between last week and this week is that when we punted the ball in a TD to win situation, we did it with 30 seconds on the clock instead of 2 minutes on the clock. Because I have zero faith our defense would have stopped the Bucs on that drive if they had more time to go down the field.

 

Honestly the game script was pretty similar to last week, just inverted. Our offense still stalled out for multiple drives in a row. Allen magic was the primary reason for our TD drives. The defense choked repeatedly at the end. In this game the clock saved us more than anything.

 

If only Knox had been put on IR one week sooner. Kincaid would have made that 4th down catch and we likely would have won. So far as actual offensive improvements that is a big one, and I will also throw in Shakir's strong performance with the caveat that I'd like to see it more than once before declaring it a real trend.

[sven233]

Anyone watching and even halfway knows what they are seeing will know that the offense was better yesterday than it has been the last few weeks.  It was efficient and, for the most part, had Tampa on their heels all night until the 4th quarter where, for some reason, we decided we had enough points and a big enough lead to finish. 

 

That said, for as improved as it was, we probably should have put up close to 40.  Dorsey getting stupid at the goal line.  Allen just missing Davis on a deep post that may have gone for a TD.  Add that to the lack of aggressiveness we showed later in the game and it's easy to see where, as good as we were, we should have been even better. 

 

I think they finally realize, though, that using an up tempi pace, 11 personnel and featuring guys like Kincaid and Shakir, all while throwing in some well timed Allen runs is the blueprint they need to use going forward.  I am a firm believer in dictating to the defense what you want to do and not trying seeing what the defense is going to do an adjusting.  Of course there is some of that, but pushing the issue with tempo and letting Allen loose opens the field up so much and makes things so much easier for everyone on offense.  My biggest thing is that I do not trust the coaching staff to keep building on it.  I mean, last week, we all thought that Dorsey learned his lesson about going to shotgun with inches to go.....but nope, there it was again with inches to go for a TD and Dorsey actively decided to make sure we didn't score.  So, how can we trust this staff even with the most obvious of things?  Guess we'll see.