Why do the Bills always defer when they win the coin toss?

[Lost]

I'm sick of hearing crap about having the opportunity to double dip at half.  The Raiders game aside,  the Bills have shown to be pretty abysmal at playing from behind and if I remember from last year, the Bills had an extremely high scoring percentage on first possession drives.   Why not just always receive the Ball, get that early lead and make the other team play catch up.   Once the Bills get down, they seem to get in their own heads and lose all their juice.   This is just one of the many little annoyances I've had about this season so far.  

[Low Positive]

3 minutes ago, Lost said:

I'm sick of hearing crap about having the opportunity to double dip at half.  The Raiders game aside,  the Bills have shown to be pretty abysmal at playing from behind and if I remember from last year, the Bills had an extremely high scoring percentage on first possession drives.   Why not just always receive the Ball, get that early lead and make the other team play catch up.   Once the Bills get down, they seem to get in their own heads and lose all their juice.   This is just one of the many little annoyances I've had about this season so far.  

Belichick started  this. But some teams do take the ball. The Bengals always do. They want to impose their will from the opening kick. And because most teams defer, Cincinnati almost always starts with the ball.

[The Jokeman]

1 minute ago, D. L. Hot-Flamethrower said:

It's a defensive coach thing, McDermott. They like the ball kicked deep in the opponents territory rather than if the O goes 3 and out the other team gets it nearer midfield.

I'm sure the thought of double dipping at the end of the first half and starting the second half with TDs is appealing too. 

[Lost]

1 minute ago, FrenchConnection said:

Belichick started  this. But some teams do take the ball. The Bengals always do. They want to impose their will from the opening kick. And because most teams defer, Cincinnati almost always starts with the ball.

 

Both the Bengals games from last season stick out to me for this reason.   The Bills gave the ball to them to start both games and they just shredded their way right down the field for opening TDs.  The Bills immediately looked deflated in both instances and never recovered.  

[BillsFan130]

I always prefer deferring personally.

 

Get a chance to double dip from end of the half/start of the 2nd half.

Its not just a MCD thing- I don’t know the exact stat, but I think it’s like 90-95 percent of the time coaches defer

[Franco_92]

I'm pretty sure you can prove mathematically deferring is better. But I don't have the proof. 

 

I like getting the ball at the half when both teams have run through their scripts and have a good idea what the other team is doing. 

[SoCal Deek]

With all of the analytics that dominate sports these days it seems like this would be an easy thing to study. How many times have the Bills actually double dipped after having kicked off to start the game, versus not? 

[zow2]

Just to point to another games, the Ravens won the toss vs Detroit and TOOK the ball.  They wanted to set a tone and rammed it in for a 7 play drive opening TD.

[Dancing Fool]

3 minutes ago, Franco_92 said:

I'm pretty sure you can prove mathematically deferring is better. But I don't have the proof. 

 

I like getting the ball at the half when both teams have run through their scripts and have a good idea what the other team is doing. 

I'm sure one may be able to prove that it has been more successful in a historical sense. This does not mathematically prove that it is better. 

 

Often in games of strategy choosing "weaker" moves can be advantageous, unless you are playing what is essentially a "solved" game with no opportunity for randomness. Football is not that game. 

[Simon]

The double dip opportunity is small potatoes compared to being able to potentially have an extra possession in the second half, and the field position angle is irrelevant.

Getting that extra offensive possession in the 3rd/4th qrtr when games are decided is why you do it.

[Franco_92]

1 minute ago, Dancing Fool said:

I'm sure one may be able to prove that it has been more successful in a historical sense. This does not mathematically prove that it is better. 

 

Often in games of strategy choosing "weaker" moves can be advantageous, unless you are playing what is essentially a "solved" game with no opportunity for randomness. Football is not that game. 

Prove might not be the best word but by using it I mean I think there is a stronger case to be made than "teams who choose X win Y% of the time "

 

I just don't remember how the argument goes. 

[Big Turk]

Almost every team does. Analytically it's the "correct" choice and helps to potentially maximize possessions.

[Boatdrinks]

They’ve done this for years now. Not a big deal and certainly not the source of their problems right now. You’ve only got two choices and they prefer one over the other. 

[zow2]

The absolute killer is when you defer, kickoff,  and the other team converts several 3rd downs and goes on a long drive.  I hate when that happens in home games especially.  By the time you get the ball back, there's 6:30 left in the first Qtr or something.  Being down 7-0 or 3-0 is less than ideal in those situations.  This Bills defense right now struggles on 3rd downs.

[Billsflyer12]

https://www.sharpfootballanalysis.com/analysis/opening-kickoff-receive-or-defer/
 

A couple years old but gives the basics of the decision.  It’s advantageous but at the very slimiest of margins.

[Simon]

3 minutes ago, zow2 said:

The absolute killer is when you defer, kickoff,  and the other team converts several 3rd downs and goes on a long drive.  I hate when that happens in home games especially.  By the time you get the ball back, there's 6:30 left in the first Qtr or something.

 

I don't really think that's too much of a killer when there is still 55:00 of game left.

[nucci]

51 minutes ago, FrenchConnection said:

Belichick started  this. But some teams do take the ball. The Bengals always do. They want to impose their will from the opening kick. And because most teams defer, Cincinnati almost always starts with the ball.

impose their will? It's a football game

[NewEra]

[boater]

1 hour ago, Lost said:

I'm sick of hearing crap about having the opportunity to double dip at half.

Double-dipping is why. Most of the replies here show that.

 

By stating you're sick of it, you expected a different answer?

[Big Turk]

1 hour ago, Lost said:

I'm sick of hearing crap about having the opportunity to double dip at half.  The Raiders game aside,  the Bills have shown to be pretty abysmal at playing from behind and if I remember from last year, the Bills had an extremely high scoring percentage on first possession drives.   Why not just always receive the Ball, get that early lead and make the other team play catch up.   Once the Bills get down, they seem to get in their own heads and lose all their juice.   This is just one of the many little annoyances I've had about this season so far.  

 

It's irrelevant what you think, it still is the smart play analytically and why virtually every team in the NFL does it.

Edited October 25, 2023 by Big Turk

[Buffalo03]

1 hour ago, BillsFan130 said:

I always prefer deferring personally.

 

Get a chance to double dip from end of the half/start of the 2nd half.

Its not just a MCD thing- I don’t know the exact stat, but I think it’s like 90-95 percent of the time coaches defer

I typically agree but this offense needs any momentum it can get right now and if they can receive the ball and take it down and score, it's a huge momentum builder. Just do it for a game or 2 and then go from there

[BuffaloBillies]

Maybe situational based on opponent. For instance, getting the ball first and driving down the field vs NE for a TD would have been a great start against that "struggling" team especially cuz then their fans and players are thinking "here we go again" and get deflated. Basically, shut the crowd up right away.

[SCBills]

I'm fine with it.  It's good logic.

 

However, our Defense apparently has zero clue how to stop the first 10-15 scripted plays, so perhaps that logic should go out the window. 

[Lost]

19 minutes ago, Big Turk said:

 

It's irrelevant what you think, it still is the smart play analytically and why virtually every team in the NFL does it.

 

On paper of course it's smarter to defer, but we're dealing with a team that seemingly has a problem of falling emotionally flat during games.   I'm hypothesizing that maybe letting the opposing score on opening possessions and getting behind early is the source of it.   I'm just saying maybe having our team get out ahead first is a better morale boost and we've always been better and playing from in front in the Josh Allen era.   

[Bleeding Bills Blue]

Just now, SCBills said:

I'm fine with it.  It's good logic.

 

However, our Defense apparently has zero clue how to stop the first 10-15 scripted plays, so perhaps that logic should go out the window. 

 

Its worse when you 3 and out, they get good field position, and then execute the game script.  

[Low Positive]

1 hour ago, Lost said:

 

Both the Bengals games from last season stick out to me for this reason.   The Bills gave the ball to them to start both games and they just shredded their way right down the field for opening TDs.  The Bills immediately looked deflated in both instances and never recovered.  

And in the first one, the Bengals won the toss.

[K-9]

1 hour ago, Lost said:

I'm sick of hearing crap about having the opportunity to double dip at half.  The Raiders game aside,  the Bills have shown to be pretty abysmal at playing from behind and if I remember from last year, the Bills had an extremely high scoring percentage on first possession drives.   Why not just always receive the Ball, get that early lead and make the other team play catch up.   Once the Bills get down, they seem to get in their own heads and lose all their juice.   This is just one of the many little annoyances I've had about this season so far.  

 

[BillsFan130]

2 hours ago, Buffalo03 said:

I typically agree but this offense needs any momentum it can get right now and if they can receive the ball and take it down and score, it's a huge momentum builder. Just do it for a game or 2 and then go from there

True. But they did have it first against the giants and went 3 and out haha.

 

But ya a good start is super important in an ideal world

[Cheektowaga Chad]

3 hours ago, FrenchConnection said:

Belichick started  this. But some teams do take the ball. The Bengals always do. They want to impose their will from the opening kick. And because most teams defer, Cincinnati almost always starts with the ball.

This is interesting, because taking the ball is different and all teams defer. Being able to game plan/prepare knowing when your offensive and defensive unit will take the field has to be an advantage

 

I wonder how the Bengals play when they kick first vs when they get the ball 

[MJS]

Because it is smart. Literally everyone does it. It gives you a very slight advantage.

 

Do you ever watch other teams?

Edited October 25, 2023 by MJS

[EmotionallyUnstable]

I agree it’s the right thing to do. That being said it can’t ALWAYS be the right thing to do. 
 

For all the data that might support deferring, I have to imagine specific data exists that would support certain teams, or certain scenarios (weather) would point to otherwise. 
 

I love getting the second half kick, because it really gives you an opportunity to adjust what you’ve seen in-game at the half and come out swinging. 
 

if you can weather the storm of the opening script in the first half after deferring, you undoubtedly get the upper hand in the 2nd. 

[The Red King]

If you're leading at halftime you have a chance to extend the lead.  If tied, the chance to take the lead.  If down, the chance to catchup.

 

It's that last part that really matters.  Imposing your will is fine, but you're gambling on a single drive.  If you don't succeed you've given up a big advantage.

[Low Positive]

The most recent article on this that I can find is from 2018 when 92% of teams deferred upon winning the toss. What I didn't remember is that prior to 2008, the team that got the first-half kickoff also got the second-half kickoff. Then, everyone took the ball of course.

 

https://www.rookieroad.com/football/glossary-of-terms/defer/

[LABILLBACKER]

I think with how injury depleted our team is now, the proper strategy for the rest of this year is get the damn ball and score on your opening drive.  Get JA & Co some early confidence. 

[zow2]

3 hours ago, Simon said:

 

I don't really think that's too much of a killer when there is still 55:00 of game left.

 

I respectfully disagree.  Often times I've seen the exact situation I described dictate a poor first half for the deferring team.  And that's 50% of the game.   

[Ed_Formerly_of_Roch]

4 hours ago, Lost said:

I'm sick of hearing crap about having the opportunity to double dip at half.  The Raiders game aside,  the Bills have shown to be pretty abysmal at playing from behind and if I remember from last year, the Bills had an extremely high scoring percentage on first possession drives.   Why not just always receive the Ball, get that early lead and make the other team play catch up.   Once the Bills get down, they seem to get in their own heads and lose all their juice.   This is just one of the many little annoyances I've had about this season so far.  

 

Were you just as annoyed by this practice two years ago when in most games, they'd stop the other teams opening drive, then get the ball and drive down the field and score a TD, then also score right before the half and on the opening drive of the 3rd quarter?

[Ed_Formerly_of_Roch]

42 minutes ago, FrenchConnection said:

The most recent article on this that I can find is from 2018 when 92% of teams deferred upon winning the toss. What I didn't remember is that prior to 2008, the team that got the first-half kickoff also got the second-half kickoff. Then, everyone took the ball of course.

 

https://www.rookieroad.com/football/glossary-of-terms/defer/

 

To the best of my knowledge that never happened.  What did on rare occasions happen was if it was an extremely windy day a team may rather than choose to kick off or receive, or defer would choose which end of the field to defend.  That would then allow the other team to choose to receive the 1st half and again tin the 3rd quarter.  That happened more in the "3 yards and a cloud of dust" era, (or when the French Connection came out) now I think with offenses being better overall and stronger leg kickers, that hasn't happened in years.

Edited October 25, 2023 by Ed_Formerly_of_Roch

[MJS]

4 hours ago, Franco_92 said:

I'm pretty sure you can prove mathematically deferring is better. But I don't have the proof. 

 

I like getting the ball at the half when both teams have run through their scripts and have a good idea what the other team is doing. 

I think they have shown that on average you get more possessions (a slight advantage) from getting the ball to start the 2nd half. I'm not sure how it works, but there is definitely a mathematical advantage.