Week 4, Bills favored by 3 over Dolphins

[Gregg]

3 minutes ago, JaCrispy said:

Any word on uniforms for the game?

 

Hoping for anything but all blues…👍

 

 

[Patrick Duffy]

45 minutes ago, DaBillsFanSince1973 said:

 

 

Yeah, the D has been bringing it for sure. To me the D this season just has a different feel to it and Oliver has really been playing better than he ever has thus far.

 

But, so far it seems as it was the right call with MCD's decision to move on from Frazier taking over the Defense 

[Scott7975]

1 hour ago, SoMAn said:

I don't disagree that there's an element of excitement for violence. Watching auto racing we love big pile up or a good fight in a hockey game.  But, unless you're a sociopath, you hope the participants don't suffer a debilitating injury. With the level of protection Nascar drivers have, there's probably less chance of injury in a major crash than a WR who gets blindsided by a human projectile. 

 

Of course. I never root for injuries.  For me, it wasn't the violence per se.  It was more so the big play of jarring ball loose.  Stopping that catch. Causing that fumble.  That stuff still happens but it's a lot harder to cause it because the penalty is a commin.

[HereComesTheReignAgain]

1 hour ago, balln said:

I watched Mia last two games on recap. 
 

achane , Mostert , waddle and hill are so deadly. Can take it to the house any play 

 

mia D LOOKS better than last year. Long and baker and holland terrify me. 
 

This is not your Flores / shulas dolphins folks. Best mia team I’ve ever seen. 
 

That being said it’s all mcdaniel. I don’t think tua has any really wow plays (LAC he had good some dimes). He’s a distributor. 
 

all on Allen and the offense to ball control and score every drive. Need to be super scoring efficient 

The Dolphins defense is bottom half/middle of the pack.  Nobody on that D is "terrifying".  

[Scott7975]

1 hour ago, RunTheBall said:

The key to our D is to disrupt Tua’s timing. Yeah, you could say that about any QB but especially Tua because he’s the ultimate game manager. What I mean is McDaniels is scheming guys wide open and Tua is throwing to a spot with anticipation. Only when he comes off his first read does he really survey the defense to see who’s open. If you can get him off his first read, he’s not an off script guy.

 

Easier said than done. McDaniels has done a brilliant job of using motion and routes to make space for guys to get wide open. Dorsey should take some pointers from this guy - you don’t see 2 receivers in the same spot all the time and the motion is very effective. 

 

I think the best way to disrupt this is to blow up the gaps, especially Oliver and Jones in the A/B gaps. I’m sure we are going to see a lot of simulated pressures but if we can win off the snap and just get in Tua’s face, his timing will be disrupted, hopefully enough to disrupt the throw to his first read.

 

I doubt Tua is going to take many sacks with his 2.4 second time to throw, but if you make him second guess what he’s seeing he might. The pressure needs to come from the interior, the DE’s coming around the tackles won’t have enough time. So, they should rush contained, ready to defend the run and get their hands up. Send the heat from the interior and play zone for the most part. We can’t run with these receivers, Trey has lost a step, Poyer looks a step slower and Benford is an instinctive zone defender. It’s their bread and butter.

 

I think and said pretty much the same thing but you said it so much better. 

 

I don't know that I agree that Trey has lost a step.  He has mostly had good coverage. Like that one Jets TD.  He was on top of the play.  Actually knocked the pass away but the defender made a spectacular catch. Something our receivers don't do often.  I think Trey is starting to get his instincts back as well.

[JaCrispy]

26 minutes ago, Gregg said:

 

 

Best uniforms in football…👍

[uninja]

2 hours ago, Scott7975 said:

 

Yeah their motions are fast and tight.  I seen some plays that were runs and the ball fooled me watching from a good side view camera angle.  I had to watch twice lol. I can't imagine being a defender and trying to see that from a pile of people view.

 

Elam is in the dog house but he is a good defender for this because he has speed and he is pretty sticky. Thats his skill set.  I doubt he is active though.  Next best thing is maintaining tight zone coverage.  Not Edmunds zone coverage where he stands in a spot staring at the QB while the receiver just moves past him from behind and Edmunds doesnt move until after the receiver catches the ball.  It needs to be tight.  Tackling is going to be key. They have to keep in front of them and tackle at the point of catch.  Miami thrives off 10-15 yard plays over the middle with YAC after that.  Middle of the line needs to get good push.  Make Tua move.  Anything that disrupts the timing where he has to hold the ball.  Thats where his mistakes come.  They are not good at off script stuff.

 

Watch the pass spread charts for Tua, he LOVES the middle of the field and crossing routes and hates throwing to the sidelines because he doesn't have the arm strength.

 

Bills have to clog the middle and the sideline from the hash where the ball is snapped from. Force Tua to throw to the sidelines past the sticks. His arm doesn't have the velocity to get it there quickly enough and those routes can be jumped by a well positioned LB or safety.

[Scott7975]

56 minutes ago, DaBillsFanSince1973 said:

 

 

 

Drew Bledsoe announced as the Bills Legend of the Game against Miami

 

 

Drew Bledsoe will be the Bills Legend of the Game for Buffalo's 1 p.m. contest against the Miami Dolphins this Sunday. Bledsoe is excited to return to the stadium where his NFL career began.

 

Initially drafted as a Patriot, Bledsoe made his debut against Buffalo in 1993 before the Bills traded a first-round pick to acquire the star quarterback from New England in 2003.

 

"Coming back into that stadium and having the fans welcome me rather than boo the crap out of me was great," Bledsoe said. "Loved it. We just, very quickly, fell in love with everything about Western New York and especially being a part of the Bills."

 

One of Bledsoe's favorite memories about his time in Buffalo was the passion and respect of Bills Mafia.

buffalobills.com

 

Yeah. We'll see how excited he is when he gets his seat to watch the game.

[JaCrispy]

13 minutes ago, uninja said:

 

Watch the pass spread charts for Tua, he LOVES the middle of the field and crossing routes and hates throwing to the sidelines because he doesn't have the arm strength.

 

Bills have to clog the middle and the sideline from the hash where the ball is snapped from. Force Tua to throw to the sidelines past the sticks. His arm doesn't have the velocity to get it there quickly enough and those routes can be jumped by a well positioned LB or safety.

I’d love to see 4 man fronts, with the DE (on Hill’s side) dropping into the passing lanes once in a while…

[Pine Barrens Mafia]

31 minutes ago, HereComesTheReignAgain said:

The Dolphins defense is bottom half/middle of the pack.  Nobody on that D is "terrifying".  

mind who you're responding to.

 

he's either a fish troll or just cowardly in the extreme

 

[Beck Water]

2 hours ago, balln said:

I watched Mia last two games on recap. 
 

achane , Mostert , waddle and hill are so deadly. Can take it to the house any play 

 

mia D LOOKS better than last year. Long and baker and holland terrify me. 
 

This is not your Flores / shulas dolphins folks. Best mia team I’ve ever seen. 
 

That being said it’s all mcdaniel. I don’t think tua has any really wow plays (LAC he had good some dimes). He’s a distributor. 
 

all on Allen and the offense to ball control and score every drive. Need to be super scoring efficient 

 

Achane, Mostert, Waddle, and Hill are fast fast guys.  I expect it to be a tough battle, and they'll win some plays.

 

On the other hand, 3 of the 4 of them were there last season when we played the Dolphins. 

 

What offenses have the Dolphins played so far?  The Chargers managed 433 yds and 34 points, came down to giving up 10 points in the 4Q.

The Patriots haven't looked like an offensive juggernaut so far and 0-3 Denver just looks like a mess.

It's not like they've been shutting down the Eagles, the 49ers, and Kansas City.

 

 

24 minutes ago, uninja said:

 

Watch the pass spread charts for Tua, he LOVES the middle of the field and crossing routes and hates throwing to the sidelines because he doesn't have the arm strength.

 

Bills have to clog the middle and the sideline from the hash where the ball is snapped from. Force Tua to throw to the sidelines past the sticks. His arm doesn't have the velocity to get it there quickly enough and those routes can be jumped by a well positioned LB or safety.

 

?

 

 

They don't have Week 2.  Week 3 sort of matches what you say.

 

 

The theory is that Tua has greatly improved his ability to make that sideline throw.  Week 1 kinda bears that out.  Week 2 kinda bears you out.

 

I will say this, right now Tua's completed air yards are only slightly higher than the YAC on completions: 546 to 478 yds.

 

In an interesting twist, that's actually true for Josh Allen right now: 366 to 362 yds

 

 

 

 

Edited September 28, 2023 by Beck Water

[newcam2012]

3 hours ago, Scott7975 said:

 

Yeah their motions are fast and tight.  I seen some plays that were runs and the ball fooled me watching from a good side view camera angle.  I had to watch twice lol. I can't imagine being a defender and trying to see that from a pile of people view.

 

Elam is in the dog house but he is a good defender for this because he has speed and he is pretty sticky. Thats his skill set.  I doubt he is active though.  Next best thing is maintaining tight zone coverage.  Not Edmunds zone coverage where he stands in a spot staring at the QB while the receiver just moves past him from behind and Edmunds doesnt move until after the receiver catches the ball.  It needs to be tight.  Tackling is going to be key. They have to keep in front of them and tackle at the point of catch.  Miami thrives off 10-15 yard plays over the middle with YAC after that.  Middle of the line needs to get good push.  Make Tua move.  Anything that disrupts the timing where he has to hold the ball.  Thats where his mistakes come.  They are not good at off script stuff.

I didn't watch their game vs NE. I see they scored 24 points. Anyone know what BB did to slow them down? 

[VaMilBill]

44 minutes ago, HereComesTheReignAgain said:

The Dolphins defense is bottom half/middle of the pack.  Nobody on that D is "terrifying".  

Same with the Bengals last year and they stopped our offense. 
 

it’s about familiarity and matchups. I actually think the dolphins defense matches up against our offense pretty well. 
 

as long as josh doesn’t commit another fumble for Td or some back breaking turnover, we have a shot

 

very curious to see how our defense performs

[ColoradoBills]

27 minutes ago, Scott7975 said:

 

Yeah. We'll see how excited he is when he gets his seat to watch the game.

 

[DaBillsFanSince1973]

 

The top 10:

1. Christian McCaffrey 353

2. D’Andre Swift 308

3. James Cook  267

4. James Conner  266

5. Tony Pollard 264

6. Raheem Mostert  240

7. Brian Robinson Jr.  216

8. Bijan Robinson  213

9. Zack Moss  210

10. De’Von Achane 208

 

 

The top 10:

1. Justin Jefferson  458

2. Tyreek Hill  412

3. Keenan Allen  402

4. Puka Nacua  338

5. Davante Adams  322

6. Chris Olave  302

7. Mike Evans  297

8. Stefon Diggs  279

9. Amon-Ra St. Brown  275

10. CeeDee Lamb  273 

billswire.usatoday

Edited September 28, 2023 by DaBillsFanSince1973

[Scott7975]

2 minutes ago, newcam2012 said:

I didn't watch their game vs NE. I see they scored 24 points. Anyone know what BB did to slow them down? 

 

I know they used like 3 safeties playing back.  I dunno about the rest of the scheme.  I ain't that smart.

[uninja]

9 minutes ago, Beck Water said:

 

Achane, Mostert, Waddle, and Hill are fast fast guys.  I expect it to be a tough battle, and they'll win some plays.

 

On the other hand, 3 of the 4 of them were there last season when we played the Dolphins. 

 

What offenses have the Dolphins played so far?  The Chargers managed 433 yds and 34 points, came down to giving up 10 points in the 4Q.

The Patriots haven't looked like an offensive juggernaut so far and 0-3 Denver just looks like a mess.

It's not like they've been shutting down the Eagles, the 49ers, and Kansas City.

 

 

 

?

 

 

They don't have Week 2

 

Counterpoint: Week 1 (on my work computer so copy pasting images is kind of a chore)

 

Also look at his overall pass chart for 2022, he's deadly over the middle, throwing to the right side (because he's a southpaw) but his shorter passes to the sidelines are where he struggles (relatively).

[loveorhatembillsfan4life]

14 minutes ago, newcam2012 said:

I didn't watch their game vs NE. I see they scored 24 points. Anyone know what BB did to slow them down? 

I read a recap where they focused on limiting the big play at all costs but it came at the expense of their run defense. 

Edited September 28, 2023 by loveorhatembillsfan4life

[K-9]

10 minutes ago, VaMilBill said:

Same with the Bengals last year and they stopped our offense. 
 

it’s about familiarity and matchups. I actually think the dolphins defense matches up against our offense pretty well. 
 

as long as josh doesn’t commit another fumble for Td or some back breaking turnover, we have a shot

 

very curious to see how our defense performs

We averaged 455 yards on offense in the three games last season, with a high of 497 in the heat stroke game in Miami and a low of 423 in the playoff game here. If that’s matching up pretty well, I can’t wait to play a defense that doesn’t.

[Gregg]

17 minutes ago, VaMilBill said:

Same with the Bengals last year and they stopped our offense. 
 

it’s about familiarity and matchups. I actually think the dolphins defense matches up against our offense pretty well. 
 

as long as josh doesn’t commit another fumble for Td or some back breaking turnover, we have a shot

 

very curious to see how our defense performs

 

The Bills are home and favored. We have more than just a shot.

[The Wiz]

I like it

 

 

[Patrick Duffy]

36 minutes ago, HereComesTheReignAgain said:

The Dolphins defense is bottom half/middle of the pack.  Nobody on that D is "terrifying".  

 

Well, they're pretty decent up front and Wilkins can be disruptive (also eagerness for opportunity to grab Josh's one-eyed-critter)....

 

But as much as the blitz against Josh it can cause issues. Hopefully with Oline now playing better it won't be too bad

[Scott7975]

35 minutes ago, Beck Water said:

 

Achane, Mostert, Waddle, and Hill are fast fast guys.  I expect it to be a tough battle, and they'll win some plays.

 

On the other hand, 3 of the 4 of them were there last season when we played the Dolphins. 

 

What offenses have the Dolphins played so far?  The Chargers managed 433 yds and 34 points, came down to giving up 10 points in the 4Q.

The Patriots haven't looked like an offensive juggernaut so far and 0-3 Denver just looks like a mess.

It's not like they've been shutting down the Eagles, the 49ers, and Kansas City.

 

 

 

?

 

 

They don't have Week 2.  Week 3 sort of matches what you say.

 

 

The theory is that Tua has greatly improved his ability to make that sideline throw.  Week 1 kinda bears that out.  Week 2 kinda bears you out.

 

I will say this, right now Tua's completed air yards are only slightly higher than the YAC on completions: 546 to 478 yds.

 

In an interesting twist, that's actually true for Josh Allen right now: 366 to 362 yds

 

 

 

 

 

I wrote a decent reply to this but my internet went out and I lost it. I'll write a quicker one because I dont feel like writing all that again lol...

 

Even week 2 most of the passes are in the middle of the field. The ones that have gone outside are mostly prayer balls on busted coverage.  Tua really does have a weak arm.  His passes over the middle have much more zip.  Thats why most of the receiver routes from both Hill and Waddle take them over the middle of the field.  Seeing a chart is one thing.  I watched a lot of those passes.  Some of them were ok but mostly prayer balls. Some of them should have been an int because they took forever to get there but either the defender didn't even look for it or Hill made a nice grab on a 50/50 ball. Some of them he was rolled or flushed out to that side making those passes effectively the same as middle of the field passes.

[DaBillsFanSince1973]

 

[taglientep]

1 hour ago, JaCrispy said:

Best uniforms in football…👍

Love how Jeremy white called the the “Blue Lights” then saying the all Blue are the Blue Heavy’s

[dock581]

While Tua has been red hot and Hill and Waddle are devastating weapons it would not surprise me if the Fish are scheming to primarily use their running game to keep Josh and our O off the field. Mostert has had big games against us and Achane seems as scary fast as Breece Hall. Mix in a few quick slants to Tyreek and we could get burned for some long plays

[wjag]

So I just watched the all 22 on Tua's passes against Denver.  One thing that jumped out to me was he consistently threw to the place on the field where his head was at the snap.  He rarely tries to move the Mike or safeties.  It's been discussed a lot on here about the timing this offense executes in.  This bears it out.  They do a ton of in breaking routes.  I watched NE too.  NE played a lot of 3 high safety to keep everything in front of them.  The Miami screen game is one of the better ones I've seen. 

 

Edited September 28, 2023 by wjag

[Buffalo_Stampede]

Poyer knees shot or he’s afraid of the speed.

[Low Positive]

4 minutes ago, wjag said:

So I just watched the all 22 on Tua's passes against Denver.  One thing that jumped out to me was he consistently threw to the place on the field where his head was at the snap.  He rarely tries to move the Mike or safeties.  It's been discussed a lot on here about the timing this offense executes in.  This bares it out.  They do a ton of in breaking routes.  I watched NE too.  NE played a lot of 3 high safety to keep everything in front of them.  The Miami screen game is one of the better ones I've seen. 

 

Tua doesn't even throw to guys most of the time. He throws to a window that the guy runs into. He does stare at that window pre-snap, but it all happens so fast that there is little that a DB or LB can do. 

[Scott7975]

10 minutes ago, dock581 said:

While Tua has been red hot and Hill and Waddle are devastating weapons it would not surprise me if the Fish are scheming to primarily use their running game to keep Josh and our O off the field. Mostert has had big games against us and Achane seems as scary fast as Breece Hall. Mix in a few quick slants to Tyreek and we could get burned for some long plays

 

They will definitely run the ball.  One because they are good at it but also it keeps our defense off balance, spread out, an keeps our D from pinning their ears back. Our D is far better when an offense is one dimensional.  Most are.

[Pokebball]

It would be cool if another dimension of the coming matchup included the return of Von Miller. Oh well, a week early

[WV Fin Phan]

1 hour ago, HereComesTheReignAgain said:

The Dolphins defense is bottom half/middle of the pack.  Nobody on that D is "terrifying".  

 

Wilkins is, especially in a pile-up.  Ask Josh.  Also Holland and Kader will thump a player.

21 minutes ago, wjag said:

So I just watched the all 22 on Tua's passes against Denver.  One thing that jumped out to me was he consistently threw to the place on the field where his head was at the snap.  He rarely tries to move the Mike or safeties.  It's been discussed a lot on here about the timing this offense executes in.  This bares it out.  They do a ton of in breaking routes.  I watched NE too.  NE played a lot of 3 high safety to keep everything in front of them.  The Miami screen game is one of the better ones I've seen. 

 

MCDaniel has the Oline bought in.   Constant hustle downfield to hit anything standing.  Whole team is the same except Robbie Chosen.

Edited September 28, 2023 by WV Fin Phan

[PaattMaann]

1 hour ago, HereComesTheReignAgain said:

The Dolphins defense is bottom half/middle of the pack.  Nobody on that D is "terrifying".  

 

Jevon Holland is a top 2/3 safety in the league. He gets my vote for terrifying. 

 

But I agree there are no "game wreckers" on that D. They do have a bunch of pass rushers though. 

[jletha]

27 minutes ago, dock581 said:

While Tua has been red hot and Hill and Waddle are devastating weapons it would not surprise me if the Fish are scheming to primarily use their running game to keep Josh and our O off the field. Mostert has had big games against us and Achane seems as scary fast as Breece Hall. Mix in a few quick slants to Tyreek and we could get burned for some long plays

I agree that stopping the run will be a huge key in this game. We have had good success stopping the run at the LOS but we struggle with tackling when they get into space like on second level runs or screens. We NEED to clean this up against Miami.

[Dukestreetking]

9 hours ago, Richard Noggin said:

 

I do not MISS it, no.

 

Was it incredibly entertaining at the time?  Like watching the '90s Knicks against anyone else in the East? Yes, of course. Like watching the '80s Sabres brawl with the Bruins? Penalty boxes absolutely bulging with humanity? Hell yeah. 

 

I wasn't cognizant enough to remember the amazing violence and gladiatorial brutality of defense (and the heightened, epic beauty of downfield offensive breakthroughs) 70s bloodsport football.

 

Was it irresponsible and salaciously exploitative? Obviously. Probably why it was so narcotically appealing. The era of head-hunting and otherwise overtly violent collisions visited upon offensive skill players who dared go downfield or over the middle was potentially a reflection of the times. 

 

Really well written, btw.

[PaattMaann]

12 minutes ago, jletha said:

I agree that stopping the run will be a huge key in this game. We have had good success stopping the run at the LOS but we struggle with tackling when they get into space like on second level runs or screens. We NEED to clean this up against Miami.

 

missed tackles have been an issue with our defense since McD has arrived (not bashing him, just stating facts)...I highly doubt that will "get cleaned up" for this game. 

[Mango]

13 hours ago, MiltonWaddams said:

The key to beating Miami is to continue down the path of the 4 man rush with a lot of disguised coverage. Blitzing a guy getting the ball out in under 2.5 seconds with the fastest weapons in the league at his disposal is a recipe for disaster 

 

I think part of it is on the Bills offense to get 7's early in the game, and leave with points as often as possible. One or two defensives stops with 2 big time eating 7 point drives will give the defense some options to get creative and put Tua in a position to push the ball down field/hold the ball a little bit longer. 

 

This one will take a complete effort from both sides of the ball.

I am excited for this match up to be a good football game as I have any in recent memory. 

 

[newcam2012]

1 hour ago, loveorhatembillsfan4life said:

I read a recap where they focused on limiting the big play at all costs but it came at the expense of their run defense. 

Thanks. Do you think that's good strategy for the Bills? Bend but don't break. Then get tough inside the red zone. 

[HereComesTheReignAgain]

31 minutes ago, PaattMaann said:

 

Jevon Holland is a top 2/3 safety in the league. He gets my vote for terrifying. 

 

But I agree there are no "game wreckers" on that D. They do have a bunch of pass rushers though. 

Bruce Smith was terrifying.  Aaron Donald is/was terrifying.  Lawrence Taylor was terrifying.  Jevon Holland is not terrifying, he is a good player.  Maybe my standard for terrifying is too strict?

[PaattMaann]

Just now, HereComesTheReignAgain said:

Bruce Smith was terrifying.  Aaron Donald is/was terrifying.  Lawrence Taylor was terrifying.  Jevon Holland is not terrifying, he is a good player.  Maybe my standard for terrifying is too strict?

 

Yea I would say your standard is too strict OR theres only 1/2 guys in the league at any moment that are terrifying...which if thats the case, then almost all the D's we face wouldnt have a terrifying player so whats your point?  : )