Good Night / Bad Night - Pre-season game 3

[GunnerBill]

53 minutes ago, PBF81 said:

 

I wouldn't sweat anything yet.  It's kinda funny, last week everything sucked, this week everything's great.  LOL   Not to get in on that emotional fray, let's also realize that even with Chicago's starters on both sides, they were terrible on both offense and defense last season.  I'm not sure that it's the goal of teams to win in the preseason, seems that coaches are trying to evaluate players, or get them in real-game thinking mode anyway.  

 

My personal curiosity is what the final depth chart looks like, particularly WRT to the LBs.  I'm curious what they plan on doing.  

 

The offense IMO is going to be fine, if we stay healthy, expect franchise records to be set, perhaps even a league record or two.  I'm thinking Air Coryell type of offense here.  

 

 

 

I would like to think these write ups try and find the good even in the bad and the bad even in the good. Thats the intention anyway.

[Shaw66]

2 hours ago, LABILLBACKER said:

  I still can't understand the Elam pick if your scheme is zone. Makes zero sense. 

 

The Basham / Epenesa picks were bad and hopefully we can still salvage something with a trade.

The Bills studied Elam and concluded that he could learn to play the defense the Bills wanted him to play.   That judgment has turned out, so far, to be wrong.   Makes plenty of sense.   That's exactly what McDermott did with his very first pick:  Tre White.  That time the judgment was correct. 

 

Basham and Epenesa weren't bad picks.   They're good NFL players and will play many years in the league.  They may not be as good as the Bills hoped they would be, but they are far from busts.   The Bills may be about to give up on Epenesa, because he doesn't fit their mold, but they aren't done with Basham. 

 

It's all in the nature of the draft.  

3 hours ago, Doc said:

 

The first pass could be considered a drop.  The only defense is that his arms were outstretched and it was a laser from Josh, but a top WR has to make that catch.

I haven't seen the play, but I've seen him catch Josh's lasers before. 

 

And if we're going to measure Davis against "top wide receivers," he will always come up short.   He is NOT a top wide receiver and never will be.   He's a #2, and #2s are not consistently top playmakers.   The only exceptions are the guys who are really #1s and are #2 only because they're still on their rookie contracts with a team that already has a #1.   That's nice if you can do it, but it's not a sustainable model.   Beane wants a quality #2 for the long term, and that still could be Davis.  

Edited August 27, 2023 by Shaw66

[LeGOATski]

3 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

 "has he beaten off Barkley now?" Then sure, good night. 

That sounds like a GREAT night!

[GunnerBill]

Just now, LeGOATski said:

That sounds like a GREAT night!

 

Matt is cute. I would.

[Rockinon]

One thing standing out like a sore thumb all throughout the preseason has been kickoff and punt return. No one has impressed. The loss of Hines was huge and needs to be fixed asap.  We need a return man....bad.

[MasterStrategist]

59 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

A correctly spelt word.

 

I think Grier is awful and worth saying Allen beat him out when both were backups to Cam.

Agree, Grier is not our backup QB answer, but neither is Barkley IMO.  Just depends if they value Matt's QB room presence VS potential development shot with Grier.

 

Neither is rosterable on the 53, just talking P/S and who they might target for that role.

 

Can't see us carrying 3 QBs on the 53.  So unless they swing a trade (ie: Davis Mills type), which I'd consider highly unlikely OR some unusual cut (ie: Mason Rudolph type), then it will be Kyle Allen this year. 

 

Shall see what Beane has up his sleeve.

 

More pressing to me is MLB.  I'm guessing they'll  take the "wait and see" approach, make a move at deadline if needed.  

 

Backup RT is where I could see them moving a late pick (or one of our DEs, Cam Lewis types) to try and find the player that is buried on a team's depth chart.

[Low Positive]

8 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

Matt is cute. I would.

Sure, but afterwards you would be subjected to a 2-hour treatise on crypo currency. 

[Goin Breakdown]

2 hours ago, buffaloboyinATL said:

And seeing that we are getting great play from Dane Jackson and Benford, maybe they can.  

Agree but seeing we can't from Elam emphasizes his draft position risky in my worthless opinion. I'm not down on the coaches, I'm just not sure he was their pick. 

Edited August 27, 2023 by Goin Breakdown

[Shaw66]

One other player I think should be added is Kyle Allen.  He showed me that he can be a serious back up. 

 

Yes, he didn't look like a starter, but just like your #2 wideout can't be expected to look like your #1, your backup QB isn't going to look like a starter (unless you have a Trubisky, but he isn't a long-term solution).   

 

Kyle showed a real facility to run the offense, something that was strangely missing a week early.   He knew what he was doing out there.   He made a lot of excellent throws, on target, on time.   Really nice.  And then he made some plays that made him look like a #2.   Yes, it really troubles me that he has no touch, but I'm guessing he'll learn to get better at that.   

 

We have to realize that when the starting QB on a good team goes down, the only way the team continues to win is if (1) the backup manages the team well and doesn't affirmatively LOSE games, and (2) the rest of the team (the oline and the defense, particularly) pick it up a notch.  Kyle Allen can be that guy. 

[Sierra Foothills]

7 minutes ago, FrenchConnection said:

Sure, but afterwards you would be subjected to a 2-hour treatise on crypo currency. 

 

Yeah, more likely the case seeing as people don't smoke anymore.

[Ethan in Cleveland]

38 minutes ago, Shaw66 said:

The Bills studied Elam and concluded that he could learn to play the defense the Bills wanted him to play.   That judgment has turned out, so far, to be wrong.   Makes plenty of sense.   That's exactly what McDermott did with his very first pick:  Tre White.  That time the judgment was correct. 

 

Basham and Epenesa weren't bad picks.   They're good NFL players and will play many years in the league.  They may not be as good as the Bills hoped they would be, but they are far from busts.   The Bills may be about to give up on Epenesa, because he doesn't fit their mold, but they aren't done with Basham. 

 

It's all in the nature of the draft.  

I haven't seen the play, but I've seen him catch Josh's lasers before. 

 

And if we're going to measure Davis against "top wide receivers," he will always come up shot.   He is NOT a top wide receiver and never will be.   He's a #2, and #2s are not consistently top playmakers.   The only exceptions are the guys who are really #1s and are #2 only because they're still on their rookie contracts with a team that already has a #1.   That's nice if you can do it, but it's not a sustainable model.   Beane wants a quality #2 for the long term, and that still could be Davis.  

Third string DE taken in the second round is a bust. Epenesa was a bad draft pick. He does nothing well.
Jury is still out on Basham and Elam.

My guess is Bernard is a colossal bust but I am willing to withhold judgment until he sees more live action.

11 minutes ago, Shaw66 said:

One other player I think should be added is Kyle Allen.  He showed me that he can be a serious back up. 

 

Yes, he didn't look like a starter, but just like your #2 wideout can't be expected to look like your #1, your backup QB isn't going to look like a starter (unless you have a Trubisky, but he isn't a long-term solution).   

 

Kyle showed a real facility to run the offense, something that was strangely missing a week early.   He knew what he was doing out there.   He made a lot of excellent throws, on target, on time.   Really nice.  And then he made some plays that made him look like a #2.   Yes, it really troubles me that he has no touch, but I'm guessing he'll learn to get better at that.   

 

We have to realize that when the starting QB on a good team goes down, the only way the team continues to win is if (1) the backup manages the team well and doesn't affirmatively LOSE games, and (2) the rest of the team (the oline and the defense, particularly) pick it up a notch.  Kyle Allen can be that guy. 

Kyle Allen struggled against guys who will not be in the NFL in 4 days. 
Just like most teams, Bills are doomed if Josh Allen misses any significant time. Bills know that too, that’s why they were in the Trey Lance hunt. They know Kyle and Matt are terrible. At least with Lnce there might be some athleticism to build upon.

[Sierra Foothills]

2 minutes ago, Ethan in Cleveland said:

Third string DE taken in the second round is a bust. Epenesa was a bad draft pick. He does nothing well.

 

I would really have to see what the data outcomes are for the 54th overall pick in the NFL draft is before I called Epenesa a bust.

 

[buffaloboyinATL]

4 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

Pre-season 2023 is in the books now all eyes are on the cuts tracker. I think the Bills have generally started their moves the day before so I expect we will see movement on Monday. The deadline for the 53 is 4pm Tuesday. Let's have a look at who helped themselves and who hurt themselves in the 24-21 victory over Chicago.

 

Good Night for...

 

Offensive Rhythm - Much better day for the starting offense as their one drive resulted in 12 plays, 72 yards and a touchdown. Two things were noticeably different from the Steelers game. The first was obviously the offensive line played better. There was the one 3rd down breakdown (probably O'Cyrus Torrence's first real pass pro failure of pre-season) where Josh had to be superman to make a play but in general they held their own up front and continue to look effective as run blockers. The second was the establishment of some quick game. And that was missing in action last week. Some of the excuses were that the Bills weren't game planning. Nobody is asking for game planning just some semblance of a quick game to help their line. It was missing much of last season too and I think we will need it as the season progresses. Josh looked sharp and on point, Diggs got a couple of balls, Cook looked good and the Bills moved the chains. The one further observation was the number of different personnel groupings and formations - I think we saw some 11, some 12, some 21, some 10.

Christian Benford - Dane Jackson has been the leader in the clubhouse in the three man battle for CB2 since camp opened but right at the last it looks like outsider Benford may have stolen the job. The former 6th rounder out of Villanova got the start opposite Tre White and had a nice pass breakup and a good tackle in run support while just generally looking like he had good coverage most snaps he played. Jackson came in on the 2nd drive when they sat Tre down and did nothing wrong but I'd make Benford the favourite to start week 1.

Siran Neal - Siran Neal has been unlucky not to make my good night list in the first two weeks because he has been one of the best Bills players in pre-season. He began it competing with Cam Lewis for the #2 nickel job but that competition has been won comprehensively and he had two endzone pass breakups yesterday as well as being active as a tackler in the open field. He was always making the roster as an elite gunner on coverage units but his play on defense probably saves the Bills a roster spot that they may have thought they needed for a backup nickel. Which probably means Cam Lewis and the impressive Ja'Marcus Ingram are headed for the practice squad.

Trent Sherfield - I think the Bills staff will love this guy. I don't know that there is a single special trait that separates him out as a receiver but he does a bit of everything. He had a nice catch over the middle yesterday, a nice out route where he demonstrated some short area separation talent and then attracted a DPI on a deep ball where he got behind the defence. Add that to his blocking, his special teams play and his versatility and he was built to play for a Sean McDermott team. He has already shown me he is an upgrade as the #3 outside receiver over and above what they had with Jake Kumerow and John Brown in 2022. How much run he gets in the regular season will be interesting to monitor.

Damien Harris - Seven rushes for 25 yards might not have wowed anyone on Harris's pre-season debut but it was a positive step forward that he could get on the field. A guy with his injury history missing the whole pre-season might just have put a nagging doubt in the head of Brandon Beane about whether this experiment was worth persisting with - especially with Mims and Evans showing well as the 3rd and 4th back in his absence. But Harris showed a bit of burst and did something the Bills have earmarked him for - ploughed into the endzone in a goalline package. I doubt his yards per attempt numbers will wow anyone by the end of the regular season either, but I wouldn't be surprised if his first down conversion and touchdown numbers are impressive.

 

 

Bad Night for...

 

Kaiir Elam - Elam makes it a hattrick in the bad night column. Some of that has been about his own play on the field, especially week 2 vs Pittsburgh, but some of it has been about his usage. Week 1 he was platooned with Dane Jackson in the first team defense, by week 3 he was the 4th man up and only got in once the Bills had really gone to what was a mixture of 2s and 3s. If Benford has won the CB2 competition from the back of the pack Elam has gone in the other direction. He is still struggling with those transitions in zone. I think it is the main thing keeping him off the field, his understanding of where to give cushion, when the break on the ball and just the mechanical function of adjusting his body from one to the other. Last night's usage said to me he is 4th of 4 among our boundary corners. Some of that is on him, some of it is on the Bills who just haven't managed to mesh the player they picked with their scheme. 

 

Damar Hamlin - I will preface this by saying I think Damar Hamlin will make the roster. But I think he might have Siran Neal to thank for that. Because if Neal hadn't been so impressive as the nickel #2 I could well have imagined the Bills giving the final safety spot to Cam Lewis for his ability to play nickel as well. Damar was poor last week and he struggled again. Out of position, a huge whiff on the tackle on DJ Moore that led to a big gain and just generally struggling to make an impact. In his favour he is always willing, he plays with maximum effort, I'm just not sure his pre-season has been particularly strong. It's also worth considering the balance of the safety room. If Hamlin and Rapp are the backups they lack a true center fielder behind Hyde. Because Poyer can play both spots maybe they worry less about that but it might factor in if Damar is a surprise cut this week. 

 

AJ Epenesa - This was the full AJ Epenesa experience. A sack and another good pressure but two bad overrurns when he takes the wide attack angle that led to long Quarterback escapes - the first play of that third drive where Fields scampered for 13 and a first down and the touchdown run from the backup QB. And it is not like this is the first time we have seen it. I go back to 2021 when he had a strong start to the season but began to lose reps after a similar loss of contain saw Taylor Heinicke escape for a rushing touchdown. It has been a persistent problem. In the three drives where there was some semblance of first team defense in the Bills rotated the right defensive end. Boogie got the first drive. Leonard Floyd got the second. AJE got the third. That might just have been the planned rotation but it is reasonable to ask whether it represents where they stand in order of preference. It is a change from the start of pre-season where Epenesa was the first guy in. While the consensus seemed to be that AJ had the stronger camp, the pre-season games so far have probably been a win for Boogie. 

 

Justin Shorter - Let's start this by reminding ourselves where Shorter stands in the wide receiver pecking order. He is at best the 5th guy on the depth chart and at best the 4th outside guy on the depth chart after Diggs, Davis and the aforementioned Sherfield. He does have being a 5th round draft pick this year in his favour but to make the 53 he is going to have to play teams. To that end failing to come down with a contested catch along the far sideline probably hurts less than losing his discipline as a gunner that led to a 56 yard return. He tried to cheat inside, got greedy looking to go for the ball carrier, ran straight into a block and left a huge hole for Scott to burst through. He has to stay patient there... stay in his line and force Scott to keep running laterally. I think the hope with Shorter was that he would justify his spot on the roster this year as a gunner allowing him time to develop as a receiver. I still think that likely is what happens - but he didn't help himself yesterday. 

 

Gabriel Davis - I put Gabe last because he is going to be on the roster and he is going to start so he doesn't have much to lose in the immediate term from his underwhelming pre-season. The most concerning play to me is the very first drop because it validates the criticism that people have made of Gabe which is that in the shorter areas he isn't adding much value to the Bills offense. He isn't a big short area quickness guy who will generate separation with his burst. He has a decent release package and decent body control and so the exact type of play that you think plays to his strengths if you are using him in the shorter zones is a slant. But Quarterbacks and Offensive Coordinators get very wary of throwing slants into traffic to guys who don't come up with the catch. And if you can't use him there you are resigned to him being a low volume, high output, deep shot guy who runs go routes, post routes and comebacks. You can run a successful offense with that type of #2 receiver.... but your variety will have to come from elsewhere which puts a lot of pressure on Kincaid, Knox, Harty and Sherfield to pick up the slack otherwise teams will just key in on Stefon Diggs the entire year. 

 

 

There we go folks. We're on to the Jets! 

I have to add Evans, for that beautiful TD run. He may not make this team, but if not, that play will get him an opportunity somewhere else. 

[Ethan in Cleveland]

5 minutes ago, Sierra Foothills said:

 

I would really have to see what the data outcomes are for the 54th overall pick in the NFL draft is before I called Epenesa a bust.

 

Bills have been up and down in the second round. Dawkins, Cordy Glenn, and Robert Woods probably the best 2nd round picks in the last decade. All very good players. Bills used a 2nd to move up and get Edmunds.
The worst will be Ford or Kjoundo. 

Darby and Zay Jones have carved out decent careers.
Epenesa and Ragland are about the same. Ragland had a bit more impact and started far more games mainly for the Chiefs but didn’t last that long. You may be correct Epenesa might hang around as a fringe DE for a few more years. 
 

That of course is the recent past.

 

My favorite player of all time was a second round pick - Thurman Thomas !!!

[Beck Water]

Good write-up as usual, Gunner.  I agree with most of it.

 

Couple of questions:  what did you think of Edwards?  I've read here that Morse got blown up, but I believe at least one, maybe both, were on Edwards.  It may be just needing more experience in the Bills scheme or messing up a play call.  In any event it illustrates the difficulty of evaluating OL play, when it's not always clear whose assignment got blown.

 

4 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

Siran Neal - Siran Neal has been unlucky not to make my good night list in the first two weeks because he has been one of the best Bills players in pre-season. He began it competing with Cam Lewis for the #2 nickel job but that competition has been won comprehensively and he had two endzone pass breakups yesterday as well as being active as a tackler in the open field. He was always making the roster as an elite gunner on coverage units but his play on defense probably saves the Bills a roster spot that they may have thought they needed for a backup nickel. Which probably means Cam Lewis and the impressive Ja'Marcus Ingram are headed for the practice squad.

 

A couple things here.  One is: is Neal a pre-season hero?  He's been the backup to Taron Johnson for a couple of years now, and has NOT looked good when he's played for him in the regular season.  Did he really take a step, or is he leveling-up to fight for a job and then when it's won, we'll see him back off?

 

Which brings me to....

 

4 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

Damar Hamlin - I will preface this by saying I think Damar Hamlin will make the roster. But I think he might have Siran Neal to thank for that. Because if Neal hadn't been so impressive as the nickel #2 I could well have imagined the Bills giving the final safety spot to Cam Lewis for his ability to play nickel as well. Damar was poor last week and he struggled again. Out of position, a huge whiff on the tackle on DJ Moore that led to a big gain and just generally struggling to make an impact. In his favour he is always willing, he plays with maximum effort, I'm just not sure his pre-season has been particularly strong. It's also worth considering the balance of the safety room. If Hamlin and Rapp are the backups they lack a true center fielder behind Hyde. Because Poyer can play both spots maybe they worry less about that but it might factor in if Damar is a surprise cut this week.

 

I know some here have PTSD over Cam's play last year especially in the Minn game, but the Bills see Cam Lewis as competing for a safety spot, as well...then bringing that versatility to also fill in at nickle and CB.  So....are we confident that Damar has beaten out Cam Lewis?

 

4 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

Kaiir Elam - Elam makes it a hattrick in the bad night column. Some of that has been about his own play on the field, especially week 2 vs Pittsburgh, but some of it has been about his usage. Week 1 he was platooned with Dane Jackson in the first team defense, by week 3 he was the 4th man up and only got in once the Bills had really gone to what was a mixture of 2s and 3s. If Benford has won the CB2 competition from the back of the pack Elam has gone in the other direction. He is still struggling with those transitions in zone. I think it is the main thing keeping him off the field, his understanding of where to give cushion, when the break on the ball and just the mechanical function of adjusting his body from one to the other. Last night's usage said to me he is 4th of 4 among our boundary corners. Some of that is on him, some of it is on the Bills who just haven't managed to mesh the player they picked with their scheme. 

 

 

AJ Epenesa - This was the full AJ Epenesa experience. A sack and another good pressure but two bad overrurns when he takes the wide attack angle that led to long Quarterback escapes - the first play of that third drive where Fields scampered for 13 and a first down and the touchdown run from the backup QB. And it is not like this is the first time we have seen it. I go back to 2021 when he had a strong start to the season but began to lose reps after a similar loss of contain saw Taylor Heinicke escape for a rushing touchdown. It has been a persistent problem. In the three drives where there was some semblance of first team defense in the Bills rotated the right defensive end. Boogie got the first drive. Leonard Floyd got the second. AJE got the third. That might just have been the planned rotation but it is reasonable to ask whether it represents where they stand in order of preference. It is a change from the start of pre-season where Epenesa was the first guy in. While the consensus seemed to be that AJ had the stronger camp, the pre-season games so far have probably been a win for Boogie.

 

I'm going to put these both here, because I believe they illustrate a draft pick pattern of Beane's, that he really needs to re-evaluate.  I know you hold that they pre-ordained picking a 1st round CB in 2022.  I'm not so sure of that, but whether they did, or whether they honestly felt Elam and Epenesa were the BPA on their board, it simply begs the question of why they felt that.

I think Beane's pattern is to try to compensate for picking late in the round by choosing high ceiling, low floor guys - guys who have elite athletic potential but have flaws in their game.  In Epenesa's case, he was a throwback to a trait of former Bills regimes of asking a player to physically re-make himself.  In Elam's case, they were asking a player to mentally re-make himself. 

 

In Elam's case, it does not appear to be working. It's a big ask for a press man corner to remake himself as a zone player.  And I don't know why the Bills aren't asking Elam to practice in oven mitts.  In Epenesa's case, it appears to be working only in flashes.

 

Anyway, I don't know what the answer is to drafting at the bottom of the 1st round.  Statistically last time I looked, IIRC there isn't a huge difference between the bottom half of the 1st round and the top of the 2nd in terms of draft pick success.  So I can't entirely blame Beane for looking for boom-or-bust picks there.

 

[Miyagi-Do Karate]

2 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

 

 

2 - Siran Neal is NOT only a meh STer. He is elite. Sure he missed a chance yesterday. He misses those very rarely. He has had some incredible downings in his time as a Bill... scooping balls almost in the endzone back etc.

 

 

maybe I have a bad memory, but I can’t recall a single time he has made a play like that. But I can remember several where he just missed on those plays. 
 

I do think he seems to have taken a step up though as a defender. 

[GunnerBill]

I thought Edwards was fine. I think there was something of a miscommunication on the left side on the play where Allen had to roll out, sure... but it still came down ultimately to Torrence got beat inside from the get go and Morse didn't hold up 1v1 when bull rushed. I don't think they executed the blocking scheme as designed but whichever bit was poor scheming Morse just got ragdolled (although as I said elsewhere he held up long enough for Allen to bail, Torrence was really the point of failure on that play). There will not be many teams in the NFL with a David Edwards and a Ryan Bates on the bench as IOL. 

 

On Siran Neal, maybe, who knows? But I think this pre-season has been the best he has performed.

 

On Damar vs Cam.... not 100%, no. But their usage last night would trend that way. Damar and Rapp were the guys straight in for Po and Hyde and played all the 2nd team snaps. I think they will see Cam as the easier one to sneak through to the PS as well.

 

And yea I agree on Beane. I think as you know they have got a bit sidetracked by needs as well. But they have definitely been going for a type as well.

[HappyDays]

I come away from preseason still concerned about our WRs behind Diggs. Much has been made of Davis's catch percentage throughout his career. Here is the only preseason game where I believe our offense looked as close to the real thing as possible and he finishes with a 25% catch percentage. His only catch was one where Allen held the ball for over 5 seconds. A low catch percentage and only catching the ball on a long developing play... That is who Davis has always been, and that inefficiency is more pronounced when he's the full time #2 as he again projects to be this year.

 

So once again the passing offense this year will mostly have to be about Allen and Diggs making magic happen. It's a little scary to have nobody behind Diggs that can consistently win within 10 yards of the LOS. Hopefully Kincaid is ready for a lot of target volume as a rookie.

 

On another note, I think that in Harris and Torrence the Bills may have finally found a goal to go run offense. Red zone TD% is one of the only areas where our offense has substantial room for improvement so this could be a significant development if Harris stays healthy.

 

Edited August 27, 2023 by HappyDays

[FLFan]

Outstanding analysis as usual @GunnerBill. I think your summary of Gabe Davis and the WR situation is absolutely spot on.  Gabe’s limitations in the short and intermediate game and the inability of anyone else to step up to that consistently, especially after Crowders injury, created major issues for the Bills offense last year. It is clear the Bills saw this and tried to fix it this off season.  I think Harty and  Sherfeld are significant upgrades over what we had and Kincaid adds an element and threat we simply did not have.  Let’s hope the plan works, because Davis is what he is at this point.  

[PBF81]

2 hours ago, Sierra Foothills said:

People on this board overreact to everything the Bills do.

 

I was also glad to see the resurrection of the short passing game. Contrary to belief, Josh Allen is a very accurate short thrower. He can flick his wrist and place balls horizontally very effectively. His completion percentage went down last year (adding to the myth that he's not an accurate thrower) because of the throws he was trying to make on a constant basis.

 

I still don't know if Dorsey doesn't reign Josh in enough or if Josh has too much leash or if they're both fixated on the big strike but this offense needs to use the horizontal Brady-type game more to open up the throws downfield. Overall they'd be a much more effective offense with a little more restraint.

 

From your lips to my ears!!!  

 

I cannot agree more.   Nothing wrong with Allen except the decision-making, and using up that clock more and taking 12 plays instead of 3, 4, or 5 to score, would help immensely, particularly come playoff time.  

 

 

2 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

I would like to think these write ups try and find the good even in the bad and the bad even in the good. Thats the intention anyway.

 

Some do, some don't.  Obviously I wasn't referring to you or anyone else that did a serious "write-up."  

 

The write-ups are fine.  More referring to the general commentary.  

 

 

[Shaw66]

44 minutes ago, Beck Water said:

 

I'm going to put these both here, because I believe they illustrate a draft pick pattern of Beane's, that he really needs to re-evaluate.  I know you hold that they pre-ordained picking a 1st round CB in 2022.  I'm not so sure of that, but whether they did, or whether they honestly felt Elam and Epenesa were the BPA on their board, it simply begs the question of why they felt that.

I think Beane's pattern is to try to compensate for picking late in the round by choosing high ceiling, low floor guys - guys who have elite athletic potential but have flaws in their game.  In Epenesa's case, he was a throwback to a trait of former Bills regimes of asking a player to physically re-make himself.  In Elam's case, they were asking a player to mentally re-make himself. 

 

In Elam's case, it does not appear to be working. It's a big ask for a press man corner to remake himself as a zone player.  And I don't know why the Bills aren't asking Elam to practice in oven mitts.  In Epenesa's case, it appears to be working only in flashes.

 

Anyway, I don't know what the answer is to drafting at the bottom of the 1st round.  Statistically last time I looked, IIRC there isn't a huge difference between the bottom half of the 1st round and the top of the 2nd in terms of draft pick success.  So I can't entirely blame Beane for looking for boom-or-bust picks there.

 

This is a very interesting point.   I'm not sure it's correct, but there's certainly plenty of evidence to think you're on to something.   

 

You should note, however, that Kincaid also falls in this category, which at least so far looks like he may be boom.  

 

Edmunds also was in this same category.   He was a first-round reach in the sense that they hoped he would emerge into something more than he was at the time.   

 

The question is whether that's a good strategy.   If you look at Torrence, he's a different category.   He's a guy who just looked like he could be a solid starter for you, and you don't worry too much about whether he's going to be a star.   Beane perhaps should be looking for that kind of guy in the bottom of the first.   And perhaps he should be stockpiling picks so that every once in a while he can trade up from the bottom of the first to, say, the middle of the first or even to 10 or so and ***** a guy he really, really wants, a guy who is more likely a guy everyone knows is going to be a difference maker.

 

On the other hand, it's hard to resist the chance to get another White late in the first.

 

Interesting stuff.  Thanks.  

[Beck Water]

2 minutes ago, Shaw66 said:

This is a very interesting point.   I'm not sure it's correct, but there's certainly plenty of evidence to think you're on to something.   

 

You should note, however, that Kincaid also falls in this category, which at least so far looks like he may be boom.  

 

Edmunds also was in this same category.   He was a first-round reach in the sense that they hoped he would emerge into something more than he was at the time.   

 

The question is whether that's a good strategy.   If you look at Torrence, he's a different category.   He's a guy who just looked like he could be a solid starter for you, and you don't worry too much about whether he's going to be a star.   Beane perhaps should be looking for that kind of guy in the bottom of the first.   And perhaps he should be stockpiling picks so that every once in a while he can trade up from the bottom of the first to, say, the middle of the first or even to 10 or so and ***** a guy he really, really wants, a guy who is more likely a guy everyone knows is going to be a difference maker.

 

On the other hand, it's hard to resist the chance to get another White late in the first.

 

Interesting stuff.  Thanks.  

 

Right.  So let's drill into that a bit more.

 

A team has a need for solid starters at many positions, IOL being one.  But they also have a need for a handful of stars at some positions, including CB, Edge, and DT on defense; QB, LT and a couple of receivers on offense.

 

Once you're paying a couple of stars at QB, WR, LT, CB, Edge and DT (which is where the Bills are - whether all the guys they're paying as such are stars is another issue), you have to keep the talent pipeline flowing somehow.  So how do you get your stars? 

Beane's philosophy appears to be, to try to accomplish that by using 1st round picks to take a shot at physical freaks who have a gap in their football resume, valuing that above guys who looked like "good solid starters".   The "sure bet" move he made was trading our 1st in 2020 for Stefon Diggs, a 5th rounder who'd played his way into being seen as a good use of a 1st round pick.

 

But since he's been drafting in the back half of the 1st round, all his 1st round picks have fit this mold - Rousseau (minimial football as a college player); Elam (strong man CB but questions about his zone abilities); Kincaid (lower level of competition and incomplete as a TE).

 

I can't say that it's wrong as an approach, but it will be intrinsically more boom-or-bust and lend itself to 2nd guessing. 

I think Beane may extend it a bit too much to the 2nd and 3rd round, though I like this year's picks.

The overall concept is that it's easier to pick up "good solid starters" who have proven themselves as having NFL abilities, on the FA market than it is to pick up "stars", so you better try to grow your own, there.

[BuffaloRebound]

I liked what I saw from Dodson in the 1st half yesterday.  He’s doesn’t have Edmunds length and range, but he seems more instinctive and showed an edge.  

I was extremely impressed by Benford.  Good coverage and sure tackler.  

Can’t stand Epenesa’s game.  For a guy who  rushes wide every play and gives up huge rushing lanes, he doesn’t get home nearly enough.  

Really like Sherfield.  Davis and Knox aren’t sure handed enough. Can see Josh trusting  Sherfield and Kincaid more than Davis and Knox.  Harty is an upgrade over McKenzie.  The O-Line/run game looks improved. 

 

I think we have a Super Bowl caliber roster. Think it will come down to health and more importantly coaching.  Can McDermott get over the hump? 

[Punching Bag]

3 hours ago, ganesh said:

I am really concerned how the Special Teams have played in the pre-season games.  They have been terrible.   We have had wonderful special teams the past several years; But this is not looking like any of that.

 

Most of the players playing special teams are not going to be active, on PS or cut.  

The few regular ones playing were also playing other roles in game which affects preparation time; also playing with a lot of players who do not play special teams in college affects performance.

Bills will be restocking special teams this year and after cuts Smiley will need to prepare plans based on personnel he has available and opposing special teams.

[Shaw66]

12 minutes ago, Beck Water said:

 

Right.  So let's drill into that a bit more.

 

A team has a need for solid starters at many positions, IOL being one.  But they also have a need for a handful of stars at some positions, including CB, Edge, and DT on defense; QB, LT and a couple of receivers on offense.

 

Once you're paying a couple of stars at QB, WR, LT, CB, Edge and DT (which is where the Bills are - whether all the guys they're paying as such are stars is another issue), you have to keep the talent pipeline flowing somehow.  So how do you get your stars? 

Beane's philosophy appears to be, to try to accomplish that by using 1st round picks to take a shot at physical freaks who have a gap in their football resume, valuing that above guys who looked like "good solid starters".   The "sure bet" move he made was trading our 1st in 2020 for Stefon Diggs, a 5th rounder who'd played his way into being seen as a good use of a 1st round pick.

 

But since he's been drafting in the back half of the 1st round, all his 1st round picks have fit this mold - Rousseau (minimial football as a college player); Elam (strong man CB but questions about his zone abilities); Kincaid (lower level of competition and incomplete as a TE).

 

I can't say that it's wrong as an approach, but it will be intrinsically more boom-or-bust and lend itself to 2nd guessing. 

I think Beane may extend it a bit too much to the 2nd and 3rd round, though I like this year's picks.

The overall concept is that it's easier to pick up "good solid starters" who have proven themselves as having NFL abilities, on the FA market than it is to pick up "stars", so you better try to grow your own, there.

There's another aspect to this.  They want to draft players who will merit a second co tract. They want their future stats to come out of the draft.  That may explain why they take a boom or bust approach.  If they hit every other, they're in good shape. 

 

They need Rousseau to emerge.  

[Toledo Bill]

6 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

Pre-season 2023 is in the books now all eyes are on the cuts tracker. I think the Bills have generally started their moves the day before so I expect we will see movement on Monday. The deadline for the 53 is 4pm Tuesday. Let's have a look at who helped themselves and who hurt themselves in the 24-21 victory over Chicago.

 

Good Night for...

 

Offensive Rhythm - Much better day for the starting offense as their one drive resulted in 12 plays, 72 yards and a touchdown. Two things were noticeably different from the Steelers game. The first was obviously the offensive line played better. There was the one 3rd down breakdown (probably O'Cyrus Torrence's first real pass pro failure of pre-season) where Josh had to be superman to make a play but in general they held their own up front and continue to look effective as run blockers. The second was the establishment of some quick game. And that was missing in action last week. Some of the excuses were that the Bills weren't game planning. Nobody is asking for game planning just some semblance of a quick game to help their line. It was missing much of last season too and I think we will need it as the season progresses. Josh looked sharp and on point, Diggs got a couple of balls, Cook looked good and the Bills moved the chains. The one further observation was the number of different personnel groupings and formations - I think we saw some 11, some 12, some 21, some 10.

Christian Benford - Dane Jackson has been the leader in the clubhouse in the three man battle for CB2 since camp opened but right at the last it looks like outsider Benford may have stolen the job. The former 6th rounder out of Villanova got the start opposite Tre White and had a nice pass breakup and a good tackle in run support while just generally looking like he had good coverage most snaps he played. Jackson came in on the 2nd drive when they sat Tre down and did nothing wrong but I'd make Benford the favourite to start week 1.

Siran Neal - Siran Neal has been unlucky not to make my good night list in the first two weeks because he has been one of the best Bills players in pre-season. He began it competing with Cam Lewis for the #2 nickel job but that competition has been won comprehensively and he had two endzone pass breakups yesterday as well as being active as a tackler in the open field. He was always making the roster as an elite gunner on coverage units but his play on defense probably saves the Bills a roster spot that they may have thought they needed for a backup nickel. Which probably means Cam Lewis and the impressive Ja'Marcus Ingram are headed for the practice squad.

Trent Sherfield - I think the Bills staff will love this guy. I don't know that there is a single special trait that separates him out as a receiver but he does a bit of everything. He had a nice catch over the middle yesterday, a nice out route where he demonstrated some short area separation talent and then attracted a DPI on a deep ball where he got behind the defence. Add that to his blocking, his special teams play and his versatility and he was built to play for a Sean McDermott team. He has already shown me he is an upgrade as the #3 outside receiver over and above what they had with Jake Kumerow and John Brown in 2022. How much run he gets in the regular season will be interesting to monitor.

Damien Harris - Seven rushes for 25 yards might not have wowed anyone on Harris's pre-season debut but it was a positive step forward that he could get on the field. A guy with his injury history missing the whole pre-season might just have put a nagging doubt in the head of Brandon Beane about whether this experiment was worth persisting with - especially with Mims and Evans showing well as the 3rd and 4th back in his absence. But Harris showed a bit of burst and did something the Bills have earmarked him for - ploughed into the endzone in a goalline package. I doubt his yards per attempt numbers will wow anyone by the end of the regular season either, but I wouldn't be surprised if his first down conversion and touchdown numbers are impressive.

 

 

Bad Night for...

 

Kaiir Elam - Elam makes it a hattrick in the bad night column. Some of that has been about his own play on the field, especially week 2 vs Pittsburgh, but some of it has been about his usage. Week 1 he was platooned with Dane Jackson in the first team defense, by week 3 he was the 4th man up and only got in once the Bills had really gone to what was a mixture of 2s and 3s. If Benford has won the CB2 competition from the back of the pack Elam has gone in the other direction. He is still struggling with those transitions in zone. I think it is the main thing keeping him off the field, his understanding of where to give cushion, when the break on the ball and just the mechanical function of adjusting his body from one to the other. Last night's usage said to me he is 4th of 4 among our boundary corners. Some of that is on him, some of it is on the Bills who just haven't managed to mesh the player they picked with their scheme. 

 

Damar Hamlin - I will preface this by saying I think Damar Hamlin will make the roster. But I think he might have Siran Neal to thank for that. Because if Neal hadn't been so impressive as the nickel #2 I could well have imagined the Bills giving the final safety spot to Cam Lewis for his ability to play nickel as well. Damar was poor last week and he struggled again. Out of position, a huge whiff on the tackle on DJ Moore that led to a big gain and just generally struggling to make an impact. In his favour he is always willing, he plays with maximum effort, I'm just not sure his pre-season has been particularly strong. It's also worth considering the balance of the safety room. If Hamlin and Rapp are the backups they lack a true center fielder behind Hyde. Because Poyer can play both spots maybe they worry less about that but it might factor in if Damar is a surprise cut this week. 

 

AJ Epenesa - This was the full AJ Epenesa experience. A sack and another good pressure but two bad overrurns when he takes the wide attack angle that led to long Quarterback escapes - the first play of that third drive where Fields scampered for 13 and a first down and the touchdown run from the backup QB. And it is not like this is the first time we have seen it. I go back to 2021 when he had a strong start to the season but began to lose reps after a similar loss of contain saw Taylor Heinicke escape for a rushing touchdown. It has been a persistent problem. In the three drives where there was some semblance of first team defense in the Bills rotated the right defensive end. Boogie got the first drive. Leonard Floyd got the second. AJE got the third. That might just have been the planned rotation but it is reasonable to ask whether it represents where they stand in order of preference. It is a change from the start of pre-season where Epenesa was the first guy in. While the consensus seemed to be that AJ had the stronger camp, the pre-season games so far have probably been a win for Boogie. 

 

Justin Shorter - Let's start this by reminding ourselves where Shorter stands in the wide receiver pecking order. He is at best the 5th guy on the depth chart and at best the 4th outside guy on the depth chart after Diggs, Davis and the aforementioned Sherfield. He does have being a 5th round draft pick this year in his favour but to make the 53 he is going to have to play teams. To that end failing to come down with a contested catch along the far sideline probably hurts less than losing his discipline as a gunner that led to a 56 yard return. He tried to cheat inside, got greedy looking to go for the ball carrier, ran straight into a block and left a huge hole for Scott to burst through. He has to stay patient there... stay in his line and force Scott to keep running laterally. I think the hope with Shorter was that he would justify his spot on the roster this year as a gunner allowing him time to develop as a receiver. I still think that likely is what happens - but he didn't help himself yesterday. 

 

Gabriel Davis - I put Gabe last because he is going to be on the roster and he is going to start so he doesn't have much to lose in the immediate term from his underwhelming pre-season. The most concerning play to me is the very first drop because it validates the criticism that people have made of Gabe which is that in the shorter areas he isn't adding much value to the Bills offense. He isn't a big short area quickness guy who will generate separation with his burst. He has a decent release package and decent body control and so the exact type of play that you think plays to his strengths if you are using him in the shorter zones is a slant. But Quarterbacks and Offensive Coordinators get very wary of throwing slants into traffic to guys who don't come up with the catch. And if you can't use him there you are resigned to him being a low volume, high output, deep shot guy who runs go routes, post routes and comebacks. You can run a successful offense with that type of #2 receiver.... but your variety will have to come from elsewhere which puts a lot of pressure on Kincaid, Knox, Harty and Sherfield to pick up the slack otherwise teams will just key in on Stefon Diggs the entire year. 

 

 

There we go folks. We're on to the Jets! 

Great write-up. 
I would add to the bad night list our kick offs. I don’t know if it is Bass or the coaching staff that is responsible (but my money is on the coaches).

This has driven me crazy in prior years, also. Why in the world don’t we we kick it into the end zone? Bass certainly has the leg.

It is like a ticking time bomb that we will have huge returns against us.

Let the other team start at the 25.

I think the risk of a long return greatly outweighs the potential of pinning them 5-10 yards deeper than the 25.

 

[hondo in seattle]

4 hours ago, BuffaloRebound said:

I liked what I saw from Dodson in the 1st half yesterday.  He’s doesn’t have Edmunds length and range, but he seems more instinctive and showed an edge.  

I was extremely impressed by Benford.  Good coverage and sure tackler.  

Can’t stand Epenesa’s game.  For a guy who  rushes wide every play and gives up huge rushing lanes, he doesn’t get home nearly enough.  

Really like Sherfield.  Davis and Knox aren’t sure handed enough. Can see Josh trusting  Sherfield and Kincaid more than Davis and Knox.  Harty is an upgrade over McKenzie.  The O-Line/run game looks improved. 

 

I think we have a Super Bowl caliber roster. Think it will come down to health and more importantly coaching.  Can McDermott get over the hump? 

 

 

We certainly have a good roster but saying we have a "Super Bowl caliber roster" is like saying we have the best roster in the AFC.  At least, that's what it means to me.  Is that truly what you believe?  

[Buffalo716]

4 hours ago, Shaw66 said:

This is a very interesting point.   I'm not sure it's correct, but there's certainly plenty of evidence to think you're on to something.   

 

You should note, however, that Kincaid also falls in this category, which at least so far looks like he may be boom.  

 

Edmunds also was in this same category.   He was a first-round reach in the sense that they hoped he would emerge into something more than he was at the time.   

 

The question is whether that's a good strategy.   If you look at Torrence, he's a different category.   He's a guy who just looked like he could be a solid starter for you, and you don't worry too much about whether he's going to be a star.   Beane perhaps should be looking for that kind of guy in the bottom of the first.   And perhaps he should be stockpiling picks so that every once in a while he can trade up from the bottom of the first to, say, the middle of the first or even to 10 or so and ***** a guy he really, really wants, a guy who is more likely a guy everyone knows is going to be a difference maker.

 

On the other hand, it's hard to resist the chance to get another White late in the first.

 

Interesting stuff.  Thanks.  

Edmunds was a consensus top 15 player in the draft

 

NFL network's Lance zerline had him as a top five player

 

He was not a second round pick that we reached on

[Sierra Foothills]

4 hours ago, Beck Water said:

Beane's philosophy appears to be, to try to accomplish that by using 1st round picks to take a shot at physical freaks who have a gap in their football resume, valuing that above guys who looked like "good solid starters".

The overall concept is that it's easier to pick up "good solid starters" who have proven themselves as having NFL abilities, on the FA market than it is to pick up "stars", so you better try to grow your own, there.

 

What hasn't really been proven is the bolded... which is not the same thing as saying I don't believe the theory... it just hasn't been proven by any known studies.

 

If you make the argument that high ceiling/low floor guys have the same success rate as high floor/low ceiling guys, then it obviously makes a lot more sense to draft the former.

 

Furthermore if you accept the above notion it then can be argued that even if the success rate is a BIT higher for high floor/low ceiling guys it still makes sense to draft high ceiling/low floor guys.

 

 

[BuffaloRebound]

21 minutes ago, hondo in seattle said:

 

 

We certainly have a good roster but saying we have a "Super Bowl caliber roster" is like saying we have the best roster in the AFC.  At least, that's what it means to me.  Is that truly what you believe?  

Yes.  I think the roster is improved and has closed gap with Cincy and KC.  Kincaid, Sherfield, Harty, the RB’s, the Guards are all better than what we had last year.  On defense, our secondary is improved and our D Line is top 5 with Miller.  The only downgrade on the roster is Middle Linebacker and against the better QB’s Edmunds got picked apart anyway.  

[Eastport bills]

10 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

Pre-season 2023 is in the books now all eyes are on the cuts tracker. I think the Bills have generally started their moves the day before so I expect we will see movement on Monday. The deadline for the 53 is 4pm Tuesday. Let's have a look at who helped themselves and who hurt themselves in the 24-21 victory over Chicago.

 

Good Night for...

 

Offensive Rhythm - Much better day for the starting offense as their one drive resulted in 12 plays, 72 yards and a touchdown. Two things were noticeably different from the Steelers game. The first was obviously the offensive line played better. There was the one 3rd down breakdown (probably O'Cyrus Torrence's first real pass pro failure of pre-season) where Josh had to be superman to make a play but in general they held their own up front and continue to look effective as run blockers. The second was the establishment of some quick game. And that was missing in action last week. Some of the excuses were that the Bills weren't game planning. Nobody is asking for game planning just some semblance of a quick game to help their line. It was missing much of last season too and I think we will need it as the season progresses. Josh looked sharp and on point, Diggs got a couple of balls, Cook looked good and the Bills moved the chains. The one further observation was the number of different personnel groupings and formations - I think we saw some 11, some 12, some 21, some 10.

Christian Benford - Dane Jackson has been the leader in the clubhouse in the three man battle for CB2 since camp opened but right at the last it looks like outsider Benford may have stolen the job. The former 6th rounder out of Villanova got the start opposite Tre White and had a nice pass breakup and a good tackle in run support while just generally looking like he had good coverage most snaps he played. Jackson came in on the 2nd drive when they sat Tre down and did nothing wrong but I'd make Benford the favourite to start week 1.

Siran Neal - Siran Neal has been unlucky not to make my good night list in the first two weeks because he has been one of the best Bills players in pre-season. He began it competing with Cam Lewis for the #2 nickel job but that competition has been won comprehensively and he had two endzone pass breakups yesterday as well as being active as a tackler in the open field. He was always making the roster as an elite gunner on coverage units but his play on defense probably saves the Bills a roster spot that they may have thought they needed for a backup nickel. Which probably means Cam Lewis and the impressive Ja'Marcus Ingram are headed for the practice squad.

Trent Sherfield - I think the Bills staff will love this guy. I don't know that there is a single special trait that separates him out as a receiver but he does a bit of everything. He had a nice catch over the middle yesterday, a nice out route where he demonstrated some short area separation talent and then attracted a DPI on a deep ball where he got behind the defence. Add that to his blocking, his special teams play and his versatility and he was built to play for a Sean McDermott team. He has already shown me he is an upgrade as the #3 outside receiver over and above what they had with Jake Kumerow and John Brown in 2022. How much run he gets in the regular season will be interesting to monitor.

Damien Harris - Seven rushes for 25 yards might not have wowed anyone on Harris's pre-season debut but it was a positive step forward that he could get on the field. A guy with his injury history missing the whole pre-season might just have put a nagging doubt in the head of Brandon Beane about whether this experiment was worth persisting with - especially with Mims and Evans showing well as the 3rd and 4th back in his absence. But Harris showed a bit of burst and did something the Bills have earmarked him for - ploughed into the endzone in a goalline package. I doubt his yards per attempt numbers will wow anyone by the end of the regular season either, but I wouldn't be surprised if his first down conversion and touchdown numbers are impressive.

 

 

Bad Night for...

 

Kaiir Elam - Elam makes it a hattrick in the bad night column. Some of that has been about his own play on the field, especially week 2 vs Pittsburgh, but some of it has been about his usage. Week 1 he was platooned with Dane Jackson in the first team defense, by week 3 he was the 4th man up and only got in once the Bills had really gone to what was a mixture of 2s and 3s. If Benford has won the CB2 competition from the back of the pack Elam has gone in the other direction. He is still struggling with those transitions in zone. I think it is the main thing keeping him off the field, his understanding of where to give cushion, when the break on the ball and just the mechanical function of adjusting his body from one to the other. Last night's usage said to me he is 4th of 4 among our boundary corners. Some of that is on him, some of it is on the Bills who just haven't managed to mesh the player they picked with their scheme. 

 

Damar Hamlin - I will preface this by saying I think Damar Hamlin will make the roster. But I think he might have Siran Neal to thank for that. Because if Neal hadn't been so impressive as the nickel #2 I could well have imagined the Bills giving the final safety spot to Cam Lewis for his ability to play nickel as well. Damar was poor last week and he struggled again. Out of position, a huge whiff on the tackle on DJ Moore that led to a big gain and just generally struggling to make an impact. In his favour he is always willing, he plays with maximum effort, I'm just not sure his pre-season has been particularly strong. It's also worth considering the balance of the safety room. If Hamlin and Rapp are the backups they lack a true center fielder behind Hyde. Because Poyer can play both spots maybe they worry less about that but it might factor in if Damar is a surprise cut this week. 

 

AJ Epenesa - This was the full AJ Epenesa experience. A sack and another good pressure but two bad overrurns when he takes the wide attack angle that led to long Quarterback escapes - the first play of that third drive where Fields scampered for 13 and a first down and the touchdown run from the backup QB. And it is not like this is the first time we have seen it. I go back to 2021 when he had a strong start to the season but began to lose reps after a similar loss of contain saw Taylor Heinicke escape for a rushing touchdown. It has been a persistent problem. In the three drives where there was some semblance of first team defense in the Bills rotated the right defensive end. Boogie got the first drive. Leonard Floyd got the second. AJE got the third. That might just have been the planned rotation but it is reasonable to ask whether it represents where they stand in order of preference. It is a change from the start of pre-season where Epenesa was the first guy in. While the consensus seemed to be that AJ had the stronger camp, the pre-season games so far have probably been a win for Boogie. 

 

Justin Shorter - Let's start this by reminding ourselves where Shorter stands in the wide receiver pecking order. He is at best the 5th guy on the depth chart and at best the 4th outside guy on the depth chart after Diggs, Davis and the aforementioned Sherfield. He does have being a 5th round draft pick this year in his favour but to make the 53 he is going to have to play teams. To that end failing to come down with a contested catch along the far sideline probably hurts less than losing his discipline as a gunner that led to a 56 yard return. He tried to cheat inside, got greedy looking to go for the ball carrier, ran straight into a block and left a huge hole for Scott to burst through. He has to stay patient there... stay in his line and force Scott to keep running laterally. I think the hope with Shorter was that he would justify his spot on the roster this year as a gunner allowing him time to develop as a receiver. I still think that likely is what happens - but he didn't help himself yesterday. 

 

Gabriel Davis - I put Gabe last because he is going to be on the roster and he is going to start so he doesn't have much to lose in the immediate term from his underwhelming pre-season. The most concerning play to me is the very first drop because it validates the criticism that people have made of Gabe which is that in the shorter areas he isn't adding much value to the Bills offense. He isn't a big short area quickness guy who will generate separation with his burst. He has a decent release package and decent body control and so the exact type of play that you think plays to his strengths if you are using him in the shorter zones is a slant. But Quarterbacks and Offensive Coordinators get very wary of throwing slants into traffic to guys who don't come up with the catch. And if you can't use him there you are resigned to him being a low volume, high output, deep shot guy who runs go routes, post routes and comebacks. You can run a successful offense with that type of #2 receiver.... but your variety will have to come from elsewhere which puts a lot of pressure on Kincaid, Knox, Harty and Sherfield to pick up the slack otherwise teams will just key in on Stefon Diggs the entire year. 

 

 

There we go folks. We're on to the Jets! 

The preseason means nothing and you’re reading repercussions into a drop by a player that produces on the biggest stage. Pressure on Harty, Knox, Sherfield and Kincaid is a great problem to have. These guys are going to make our season and give Diggs and Davis better matchups. It’s similar to the doomsday reaction to the O-line being disengaged against Pitt. Watch a regular season game and get back to me.

[John from Riverside]

9 hours ago, MasterStrategist said:

Thanks for write-up.  

 

AJE needs to "flatten" that rush when he gets 3-4 yards upfield, spin move/hand usage/something.  Boogie has less juice off the edge, still think AJE has more upside.

 

Cam Lewis played another solid game.  Not sure how we cut him, given our safety injury/age...he's gonna be scooped up if cut.

 

OL looked alot better on 1st team.  No surprise, as Dorsey tried more deep drops last week (likely a top 3 pass rush front in Steelers).  Ike looked bad, Q looked OK.  Edwards looks serviceable at LG, but hopefully Connor back for week 1 (likely best DL we play early on).  Vandemark likely backup LT, Q at RT.

 

I won't be surprised to see 2-3 guys make the initial 53, that aren't currently on roster (MLB, RT, QB if we keep 3).  Will Grier put up a nice game for Dallas, either will be cut or traded (former Carolina guy).  He'd be a nice P/S stash, if we could get him.

I’m quite happy that they found Vandemark for left tackle. I would really be looking at cuts for a back up right tackle. Quessenberry is just not it.

[machine gun kelly]

10 hours ago, BillsFan2313 said:

 

The Elam pick is looking more and more like a panic pick because they missed out on mcduffie, and needed a corner. 

Or they hit on Benford a 6th RD pick unless you’re looking only at the glass half empty.  Elam definitely is not showing and will be CB4.

[EmotionallyUnstable]

6 hours ago, HappyDays said:

I come away from preseason still concerned about our WRs behind Diggs. Much has been made of Davis's catch percentage throughout his career. Here is the only preseason game where I believe our offense looked as close to the real thing as possible and he finishes with a 25% catch percentage. His only catch was one where Allen held the ball for over 5 seconds. A low catch percentage and only catching the ball on a long developing play... That is who Davis has always been, and that inefficiency is more pronounced when he's the full time #2 as he again projects to be this year.

 

So once again the passing offense this year will mostly have to be about Allen and Diggs making magic happen. It's a little scary to have nobody behind Diggs that can consistently win within 10 yards of the LOS. Hopefully Kincaid is ready for a lot of target volume as a rookie.

 

On another note, I think that in Harris and Torrence the Bills may have finally found a goal to go run offense. Red zone TD% is one of the only areas where our offense has substantial room for improvement so this could be a significant development if Harris stays healthy.

 

It just feels like their first read options, for whatever reason, are not available or taken. Lots to like about the drive with Allen yesterday to start with 6, but the passing game just felt to me as it did all last year: The immediate look wasn’t there, and now it’s the Josh Allen show. It’s not sustainable.

 

Im not sure if this is a product of lack of scheme (I get it, vanilla preseason, etc), player ability to separate, poor reads with the ball or a combination of all these items. Either way, I have this sense that we’re going to see a lot of off script throws. 

[CNYfan]

34 minutes ago, John from Riverside said:

I’m quite happy that they found Vandemark for left tackle. I would really be looking at cuts for a back up right tackle. Quessenberry is just not it.

I am encouraged and hopeful about VanDenMark also, but has he really been tested by elite talent yet?

[mrags]

Thank you for the write up @GunnerBill  

 

I agree with much of what you wrote and so glad you mentioned Hamlin. 
 

I also noticed almost nobody here besides @Beck Water would comment on it. 
 

truth is, Hamlin has not looked good. Last year he played with a recklessness. Had no regard for his safety or anyone else’s. It’s what made him fairly effective and won him the backup spot. So far this year he has been the opposite. 
 

look, I get it. The guy died in the field and was revived. It’s amazing that he’s even alive let alone playing in the NFL again. But watch him play. He’s hesitant and fearful imo. I believe it’s justified. I don’t blame him for it. But he’s not playing like he did to earn him the roster spot last year. I’m not saying Marlowe or Lewis is better. But I’d say it’s closer than everyone would like to think. 
 

with all that said, I don’t think there’s any chance he doesn’t make the team after what happened to him last year. Which I believe is a shame because I think you may be keeping a guy that’s not as good because of what happened to him. But he does bring something to the locker room that nobody else does. 

[HiMark]

10 hours ago, BuffaloRebound said:

Can easily see Sherfield taking more and more of Gabe’s reps.  Not sure what Davis dies so much better than Sherfield that overcomes Gabe’s drive-killing drops.  

I am sure of what Gabe does better than Sherfield, and most other WR's: score TD's

[Beck Water]

1 hour ago, Buffalo716 said:

Edmunds was a consensus top 15 player in the draft

 

NFL network's Lance zerline had him as a top five player

 

He was not a second round pick that we reached on

 

I don't think that @Shaw66 meant that Edmunds was a 2nd round pick that we reached on.  I believe someone else may have expressed that POV, but you're correct about  Edmunds pre draft.  Lance Zierlein of NFL.com for example, graded him as 7.3, perennial all pro.  That's higher than Sam Darnold and much higher than Baker Mayfield, Josh Rosen, and Josh Allen; Saquan Barkley was graded slightly higher.

I think, or at least what I interpreted him as saying, was that Edmunds was drafted by us (and perhaps passed over by the teams who drafted 1-15) because he was seen as having enormous athletic potential that was not matched by his instincts and mental abilities to diagnose.  Lance Zierlein's scouting report is quite interesting

https://www.nfl.com/prospects/tremaine-edmunds/32004544-4d00-0000-c30c-56fb5191e34f ; doesn't that match up with how a lot of folks here critiqued him?

 

I feel he did develop as the Bills wanted him to, but it took a minute.

 

Anyway Shaw can speak for himself obviously but that's how I saw it.

Edited August 28, 2023 by Beck Water

[Beck Water]

13 minutes ago, mrags said:

Thank you for the write up @GunnerBill  

 

I agree with much of what you wrote and so glad you mentioned Hamlin. 
 

I also noticed almost nobody here besides @Beck Water would comment on it. 
 

truth is, Hamlin has not looked good. Last year he played with a recklessness. Had no regard for his safety or anyone else’s. It’s what made him fairly effective and won him the backup spot. So far this year he has been the opposite. 
 

look, I get it. The guy died in the field and was revived. It’s amazing that he’s even alive let alone playing in the NFL again. But watch him play. He’s hesitant and fearful imo. I believe it’s justified. I don’t blame him for it. But he’s not playing like he did to earn him the roster spot last year. I’m not saying Marlowe or Lewis is better. But I’d say it’s closer than everyone would like to think. 
 

with all that said, I don’t think there’s any chance he doesn’t make the team after what happened to him last year. Which I believe is a shame because I think you may be keeping a guy that’s not as good because of what happened to him. But he does bring something to the locker room that nobody else does. 

 

Hamlin is one of (what I see anyway) as a "hidden battle" on the roster.

 

I dunno about "hesitant and fearful".  But let's be real.  The guy probably had broken ribs.  He was undoubtedly limited in the physical conditioning he was allowed to do for several months.  Now he's trying to work his way back, and competing against athletes who've been full-go training with all their might since March. 

 

I think you're correct that it's closer than many would think, and if it's closer, the Cold Hard Football Assessment would say keep Lewis because of his versatility.

Marlowe is older and slower, if it's close you keep Hamlin.

 

I think the Bills are aware that Hamlin is not back to 100% physically and are likely to give him more time to "play himself into shape".

 

 

[Buffalo716]

3 minutes ago, Beck Water said:

 

I don't think that @Shaw66 meant that Edmunds was a 2nd round pick that we reached on.  I believe someone else may have expressed that POV, but you're correct about  Edmunds pre draft.  Lance Zierlein of NFL.com for example, graded him as 7.3, perennial all pro.  That's higher than Sam Darnold and much higher than Baker Mayfield, Josh Rosen, and Josh Allen; Saquan Barkley was graded slightly higher.

I think, or at least what I interpreted him as saying, was that Edmunds was drafted by us (and perhaps passed over by the teams who drafted 1-15) because he was seen as having enormous athletic potential that was not matched by his instincts and mental abilities to diagnose.  Lance Zierlein's scouting report is quite interesting

https://www.nfl.com/prospects/tremaine-edmunds/32004544-4d00-0000-c30c-56fb5191e34f ; doesn't that match up with how a lot of folks here critiqued him?

 

I feel he did develop as the Bills wanted him to, but it took a minute.

 

Anyway Shaw can speak for himself obviously but that's how I saw it.

And I certainly don't think Lance zerline is even a standard... But as far as pundits goes he's one of the more consistent over a decade

 

So I was using him as an example of somebody that I knew really liked Tremaine

 

Isn't that the crapshoot of the draft? Sometimes trying to calculate future potential with actual developed skills... I think Tremaine Edmunds is a good football player.. perhaps really good at times

 

But the NFL also has a salary cap which I don't know if his contract is worth it

 

We certainly drafted him based on physical traits and potential... He had good tape and I projected him that he could be an MLB

 

But it was all projection