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Who else is in the let’s get Gabe Davis signed to an extension camp?


John from Riverside

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8 hours ago, transplantbillsfan said:

 

Why is that? Everyone is going nuts over Gabe's camp. Sherfield by all reports has also been really good.

 

If I had my choice, I would sign Gabe to a long term deal right now somewhere in the $10-$15m range. I bet his agent is seeking north of that, though.

 

I know you enjoy trolling me, which is fine. That said, Sherfield isn't a scrub. Harty isn't a scrub. And dare I bring up the fact that Isabella has been impressing a lot of people in camp... and not just as a KR/PR...?

 

Keep Gabe if we can. But Gabe isn't one of the irreplaceable pieces of this offense.

Because it makes no sense. As a cap strapped team, why would you sign Gabe to a large contract if there’s not much drop off between him and a guy who is on the vet minimum?

 

The reasons to sign Gabe to a 4 year, $60M deal now would not include “Sherfield is almost as good and we don’t really need Gabe.”

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1 hour ago, Eastport bills said:

Gabe is about to become elite and his production the last three post seasons is enough proof to do everything possible to sign him before he hits FA. The value of getting your own draft pick on the cheap is huge. You know the guy’s work ethic, character and desire to be a Bill, along with his relationship and trust factor with Josh. Any time a GM wants to sign a player they can find the money and structure the deal to make it doable.


define on the cheap. 
 

I swear these threads should come with a requirement to include numbers if making claims 

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8 minutes ago, FireChans said:

Because it makes no sense. As a cap strapped team, why would you sign Gabe to a large contract if there’s not much drop off between him and a guy who is on the vet minimum?

 

The reasons to sign Gabe to a 4 year, $60M deal now would not include “Sherfield is almost as good and we don’t really need Gabe.”

I agree, the idea of giving Gabe $15M per season seems outrageous.  That's more than DHop got. 

 

If you are signing Gabe early, like now, the FO would be doing so to get a discount.  A perceived discount to what he would get when hitting FA, so around $8M - $10M.  I wouldn't do it if I were the GM.

 

Personally, I am still holding out hope that the FO will pick up a WR2 before the trade deadline.  Move Gabe back to where he is a stellar Wr3 and let him hit FA next year and hopefully get a compensatory pick after another team signs him to a contract.

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Just now, Einstein's Dog said:

I agree, the idea of giving Gabe $15M per season seems outrageous.  That's more than DHop got. 

 

If you are signing Gabe early, like now, the FO would be doing so to get a discount.  A perceived discount to what he would get when hitting FA, so around $8M - $10M.  I wouldn't do it if I were the GM.

 

Personally, I am still holding out hope that the FO will pick up a WR2 before the trade deadline.  Move Gabe back to where he is a stellar Wr3 and let him hit FA next year and hopefully get a compensatory pick after another team signs him to a contract.


even now the “discount” is largely giving him a 10m raise this year to get him 2m cheaper the next 5, right? 
 

by the time you do the math on hometown discounts it’s usually just having the extra year of the rookie deal baked in vs just straight free agency 

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9 hours ago, transplantbillsfan said:

 

Why is that? Everyone is going nuts over Gabe's camp. Sherfield by all reports has also been really good.

 

If I had my choice, I would sign Gabe to a long term deal right now somewhere in the $10-$15m range. I bet his agent is seeking north of that, though.

 

I know you enjoy trolling me, which is fine. That said, Sherfield isn't a scrub. Harty isn't a scrub. And dare I bring up the fact that Isabella has been impressing a lot of people in camp... and not just as a KR/PR...?

 

Keep Gabe if we can. But Gabe isn't one of the irreplaceable pieces of this offense.

 

Currently there’s not a reasonable way to fit a 4/$40M to 4/$60M contract under the Bills cap. So it’s pretty much a moot point. But it is worth having a conversation about what Davis’ value is to the Bills specifically and what his MV is generally. I agree that the $10M-$15M AAV range on a 4 or 5 year deal is right for him. 

 

I don’t see how it’s the right fit for the Bills though. Not long term at least. Diggs turns 30 this season and is signed through 2027 on a contract paying him $24M AAV. IMO also paying $12M (or so) AAV for Davis would be tough given his limitations as a WR. I would rather the Bills use their draft resources to find a future #1 WR who can take over for Diggs when he retires. They can easily coexist while the draftee is on his rookie deal.

 

A possible middle ground is if the Bills do sign Davis to a contract they can get out of in two seasons. They can probably squeeze that into the cap and use the time to draft their next #1. I hoped they’d do that and get their next guy this season (JSN), but no dice. 

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3 minutes ago, NoSaint said:


even now the “discount” is largely giving him a 10m raise this year to get him 2m cheaper the next 5, right? 
 

by the time you do the math on hometown discounts it’s usually just having the extra year of the rookie deal baked in vs just straight free agency 

Often times the "discount" is you're giving the current market rate to rising prospect before they hit the open market.  The player is amenable to doing it because they get big guaranteed money a year early.  I would expect to see this type of bargaining to take place with Groot.

 

As for Gabe, I would like the FO to consider other options for WR2 in the $10-$12M range.

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2 minutes ago, Einstein's Dog said:

Often times the "discount" is you're giving the current market rate to rising prospect before they hit the open market.  The player is amenable to doing it because they get big guaranteed money a year early.  I would expect to see this type of bargaining to take place with Groot.

 

As for Gabe, I would like the FO to consider other options for WR2 in the $10-$12M range.

 

Yup. The real issue is what $10M - $12M AAV gets you in the WR market. Spotrac WR AAV  Michael Gallup, Allen Lazard, Jacobi Meyers and the like. Next offseason it’ll be $12M+ for the likes of Gabe Davis, Donovan Peoples-Jones, etc. It might be better to go the trade route or draft one high and look at some cheaper options to hold the fort. Not a lot of great options readily available. 

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2 minutes ago, BarleyNY said:

 

Yup. The real issue is what $10M - $12M AAV gets you in the WR market. Spotrac WR AAV  Michael Gallup, Allen Lazard, Jacobi Meyers and the like. Next offseason it’ll be $12M+ for the likes of Gabe Davis, Donovan Peoples-Jones, etc. It might be better to go the trade route or draft one high and look at some cheaper options to hold the fort. Not a lot of great options readily available. 

I'm hoping the FO is interested in the in-season trade candidates, such as:  

 

Mike Evans - Tampa should stink.  Their WR group is expensive and they will probably want draft capital for a run at a QB.  Evans is on the last year of his contract, and they could pick up his $13M a third of the way through and send Tampa the Edmunds third we have.

Tyler Lockett - Seattle will probably suck and like Tampa above would want draft capital.  Seattle also has a lot invested in WR and may want to move Tyler.

J Jeudy/C Sutton - there had been rumors.  Probably harder now that T Patrick already had his year ending injury.

M Thomas - probably a long shot in that N Orleans should win the division, but if things go badly for them.

 

Honorable mentions:  H Renfro (but I don't really want a slot), A Thielen (maybe too old and just signed this yr), C Samuel (don't know how good he is).

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30 minutes ago, Einstein's Dog said:

I'm hoping the FO is interested in the in-season trade candidates, such as:  

 

Mike Evans - Tampa should stink.  Their WR group is expensive and they will probably want draft capital for a run at a QB.  Evans is on the last year of his contract, and they could pick up his $13M a third of the way through and send Tampa the Edmunds third we have.

Tyler Lockett - Seattle will probably suck and like Tampa above would want draft capital.  Seattle also has a lot invested in WR and may want to move Tyler.

J Jeudy/C Sutton - there had been rumors.  Probably harder now that T Patrick already had his year ending injury.

M Thomas - probably a long shot in that N Orleans should win the division, but if things go badly for them.

 

Honorable mentions:  H Renfro (but I don't really want a slot), A Thielen (maybe too old and just signed this yr), C Samuel (don't know how good he is).

We don't have the Edmunds third yet I don't think. It's awarded after the season.

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I'm a Gabe Davis fan.  I think he's a solid #2 receiver.   He'll never be a #1 in a good passing game.  I think the Bills should let him play out his contract and test the market.   If his stock is low, the Bills might resign him.  Otherwise, let him go. 

 

Beane signs guys off their rookie contracts when he thinks the guy is a key long-term building block.  I don't think that's what Davis.   Your #2 receiver is only a long-term building block if he's going to replace your #1, and Davis isn't replacing Diggs.  Assuming Kincaid works out, Davis will be at best the third option in the passing game, and that just isn't worth a lot of money. 

 

I think, other than your stars, you have to keep turning over your skill position players.   I think Beane's done it right at running back.   Year after year he's looking for serviceable guys, and he keeps finding them.  He got a few good years out of Singletary, he's looking for a few years from Cook, and he has pretty good backups.  Same at receiver.   You have a parade of guys coming through and fit them into your offense as it continues to evolve.  I think the Bills should be planning on a first or second round wideout in the draft, coach him up to fit into the #2 role.  If he turns out to be good, he's the replacement for Diggs when the time comes.   If he isn't that good, he's still good enough to inflict pain on defenses as the second or third option in the offense. 

 

I think it's a dynamic league.  It keeps changing, everyone keeps adapting.   When you keep good but not great players, it tends to make your team stagnate, and you can't afford to stagnate; you have to keep changing. 

 

The Bills already have plenty of keepers:   Hyde, Poyer, White, Miller, Oliver, probably Rousseau, Dawkins, Allen, Diggs.  Potential keepers in Torrence, Kincaid, Cook.   You can't pay everyone.  As the current keepers age out, you'll have more money to pay new keepers, but your #2 receiver is only a keeper if he's going to become you're #1.   That isn't Davis.  

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21 minutes ago, FireChans said:

We don't have the Edmunds third yet I don't think. It's awarded after the season.


though you could send our existing and figure it’s about 5 picks apart hopefully. 
 

that said, not racing to trade this year.

 

I’d be quite alright with letting Gabe walk, drafting a guy 1-2 and considering a mid tier or aging vet for a short deal as insurance against the draft option not working out right 

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1 minute ago, NoSaint said:


though you could send our existing and figure it’s about 5 picks apart hopefully. 
 

that said, not racing to trade this year.

 

I’d be quite alright with letting Gabe walk, drafting a guy 1-2 and considering a mid tier or aging vet for a short deal as insurance against the draft option not working out right 

IMO, the time to draft that guy to replace that Gabe was this year. I don't like relying on a rookie for high-level contributions, especially when we are gonna be picking late every year.  I understand it's not easy to do and fit the value/need equation, but the Bills are often a little late in this regard.

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This is basically the only chance we have to resign him. If he has a good season, he will cost too much. If he struggles, he will be cheaper but do we want him back then? 
 

I think we expected way too much from him last year and he still had some good moments. Not sure if he is a legit number 2 but I think he will have a good year this year and would love a price is right contract now. 
 

 

Just now, FireChans said:

IMO, the time to draft that guy to replace that Gabe was this year. I don't like relying on a rookie for high-level contributions, especially when we are gonna be picking late every year.  I understand it's not easy to do and fit the value/need equation, but the Bills are often a little late in this regard.

The Bills should have been drafting Diggs’ replacement as well. They need to just constantly draft guys so they can get young, cheap guys to grow with Allen. The Chiefs are constantly bringing in young receiver and letting the old expensive vets go.

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19 minutes ago, C.Biscuit97 said:

This is basically the only chance we have to resign him. If he has a good season, he will cost too much. If he struggles, he will be cheaper but do we want him back then? 
 

I think we expected way too much from him last year and he still had some good moments. Not sure if he is a legit number 2 but I think he will have a good year this year and would love a price is right contract now. 
 

 

The Bills should have been drafting Diggs’ replacement as well. They need to just constantly draft guys so they can get young, cheap guys to grow with Allen. The Chiefs are constantly bringing in young receiver and letting the old expensive vets go.

As expensive as receivers are, I’d be drafting a ton of them too. 

7 minutes ago, Eastport bills said:

17 or 18 with incentives making it worth 20 if he meets thresholds. That’s Keenan Allen and D.J. Moore territory but Gabe’s much younger.


I think Gabe would eagerly sign that today. I think the OP was thinking like half that. @John from Riverside?

 

i think it makes little to no sense for the bills roster construction 

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6 minutes ago, NoSaint said:

As expensive as receivers are, I’d be drafting a ton of them too. 


I think Gabe would eagerly sign that today. I think the OP was thinking like half that. @John from Riverside?

 

i think it makes little to no sense for the bills roster construction 

Why do you think our options are better if he walks? A late 2nd rd draft choice or worse who takes 2 or 3 seasons to produce at Gabe’s level or a 2nd tier FA who gets close to the money I called for and has been inconsistent or injury riddled enough to be passed over by his previous team. I think Gabe’s a legitimate #2 for our team going forward, and these receivers get 15 to 20. The cap will be going up and this position group is right behind QBs.

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1 hour ago, FireChans said:

IMO, the time to draft that guy to replace that Gabe was this year. I don't like relying on a rookie for high-level contributions, especially when we are gonna be picking late every year.  I understand it's not easy to do and fit the value/need equation, but the Bills are often a little late in this regard.

They did.

 

Shorter is Gabes replacement 

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3 minutes ago, JakeFrommStateFarm said:

They did.

 

Shorter is Gabes replacement 

Okay let me rephrase.

 

The time to draft a non-lottery ticket replacement for Gabe Davis was this year.

 

Expecting fifth round players to start on a Superbowl team is a bad strategy.

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I hope he has a massive season. Then Buffalo tags him and some team trades for him a La Peerless Price and they’ll realize dude was just standing on the shoulders of others.

 

Then I’ll sit back, light up a cigar and say, that’s right. While I look over my kingdom. Of idiots.

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2 minutes ago, C.Biscuit97 said:

This is basically the only chance we have to resign him. If he has a good season, he will cost too much. If he struggles, he will be cheaper but do we want him back then? 
 

I think we expected way too much from him last year and he still had some good moments. Not sure if he is a legit number 2 but I think he will have a good year this year and would love a price is right contract now. 
 

 

The Bills should have been drafting Diggs’ replacement as well. They need to just constantly draft guys so they can get young, cheap guys to grow with Allen. The Chiefs are constantly bringing in young receiver and letting the old expensive vets go.

Absolutely. There’s a strong chance that 3 years from now, none of our current WR’s are on the roster. 
 

Every team is gonna be different, but I don’t want to be relying on a rookie WR drafted at #28 to be our #1 when Josh is in his 30s.

 

 

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1 hour ago, Eastport bills said:

Why do you think our options are better if he walks? A late 2nd rd draft choice or worse who takes 2 or 3 seasons to produce at Gabe’s level or a 2nd tier FA who gets close to the money I called for and has been inconsistent or injury riddled enough to be passed over by his previous team. I think Gabe’s a legitimate #2 for our team going forward, and these receivers get 15 to 20. The cap will be going up and this position group is right behind QBs.


Is Hopkins short term and a 2nd round pick WR and a 3rd round comp pick and 5M in cap space to spend more impactful than gabe, as a potential real quantification of that? 

50 minutes ago, Jay_Fixit said:

I hope he has a massive season. Then Buffalo tags him and some team trades for him a La Peerless Price and they’ll realize dude was just standing on the shoulders of others.

 

Then I’ll sit back, light up a cigar and say, that’s right. While I look over my kingdom. Of idiots.


I’d be real good with a package like received for diggs, hill or adams if you want to pick an example in the last 20 years
 

the alternate, if Davis truly explodes… maybe it’s diggs you deal and use the pick on a young guy. 

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I love Gabe and want him to stay a Bill but I don't imagine a scenario where we are even close to his money from someone else. I expect him to get 15+ a year if he has a good year and we can't be on the hook for that as our #2, unless he turns into a true 1A

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8 minutes ago, NoSaint said:


Is Hopkins short term and a 2nd round pick WR and a 3rd round comp pick and 5M in cap space to spend more impactful than gabe, as a potential real quantification of that? 


I’d be real good with a package like received for diggs, hill or adams if you want to pick an example in the last 20 years
 

the alternate, if Davis truly explodes… maybe it’s diggs you deal and use the pick on a young guy. 

Hopkins is signed for 2 years and will be 34 when available. I understand you don’t think Gabe is worth the kind of money I called for but he’s young and improving and works well in our offense.

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I think Shaw is right: we let Gabe walk and blame the cap.

 

If Kincaid develops the way we hope, Josh will have two elite targets next year: Diggs and Kincaid.  And then we'll fill the gaps with the other (affordable) guys we have who aren't bad.  And maybe we draft a WR and enjoy his cheap rookie contract.  

 

If we hadn't signed Von for his big contract, we could have afforded a talented veteran WR and OL.  Now we can't.

 

I do get, btw, Beane's philosophy.  It's a passing league so he gives out the biggest salaries to a star QB, star WR, star CB, and a star DE. 

 

We just can't afford two big-ticket players at any position.  And personally, at this point, I'd rather spend money on the OL than on Gabe.  I'm tired of our expensive, talented QB getting mauled.  A better O line would give us a running game.  And it would give Josh more time to scan for receivers.  And that would make the passing game better, with or without Gabe.  

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11 hours ago, FireChans said:

Okay let me rephrase.

 

The time to draft a non-lottery ticket replacement for Gabe Davis was this year.

 

Expecting fifth round players to start on a Superbowl team is a bad strategy.


Gabe himself was a 4th rounder. I still have plenty of questions regarding Gabe. His best years have been when he was consistently the 4th option. 
 

It’s not impossible that a 5th round draft pick going into year two could put up similar numbers to Gabe’s 2022 numbers assuming he is targeted the same. 
 

Gabe’s efficiency this year needs to go up one way or the other. Either huge numbers on the same large number of targets he had last year or lower numbers but on far fewer targets as the 4th option in most games. 

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17 minutes ago, hondo in seattle said:

 

 

If Kincaid develops the way we hope, Josh will have two elite targets next year: Diggs and Kincaid.  And then we'll fill the gaps with the other (affordable) guys we have who aren't bad.  And maybe we draft a WR and enjoy his cheap rookie contract.  

 

 


 

we are playing fire if we are putting our hopes into Diggs still being an elite  receiver at the age of 31. That’s would be his age he turns in the 2024 season.

 

There just aren’t any revivers at that age that produce at a high level that I have seen in recent years. 
 

Now, I predicted last year that Diggs would decline and he proved me wrong once already. But odds are that by 2024 he shows a noticeable decline. We would really need Kincaid to basically take over the  thrown of best TE in the game in 2024. Not impossible I guess with Kelce’s age and how good Kincaid has looked thus far. 

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9 hours ago, Sammy Watkins' Rib said:


Gabe himself was a 4th rounder. I still have plenty of questions regarding Gabe. His best years have been when he was consistently the 4th option. 
 

It’s not impossible that a 5th round draft pick going into year two could put up similar numbers to Gabe’s 2022 numbers assuming he is targeted the same. 
 

Gabe’s efficiency this year needs to go up one way or the other. Either huge numbers on the same large number of targets he had last year or lower numbers but on far fewer targets as the 4th option in most games. 

It’s not impossible but it not a good plan to replace starting WR’s with fifth rounders. Remember Shakir lol.

 

The Bills need a revolving stable of talent in the WR position. They need to be like the Steelers. Second or third rounder every other year.

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On 8/10/2023 at 9:34 PM, BillsFan130 said:

The franchise tag for him next year would be about 20 million, if not higher. There is no way the bills will risk tagging him, as Gabe would hold all the leverage when working on an extension

Yeah you dont tag #2 WRs unless you can trade him to be someone's #1 I think that's what they did with Peerless Price when they had Moulds. Giving a guy an average of the 10 ten paid players at a position where he isn't the #1 on his own team and he hasn't shown that he is a #2 doesn't make sense.  

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On 8/12/2023 at 12:47 PM, Eastport bills said:

Hopkins is signed for 2 years and will be 34 when available. I understand you don’t think Gabe is worth the kind of money I called for but he’s young and improving and works well in our offense.


I was using him as an example. Insert vet receiver cut next year in his place for the real world execution.

35 minutes ago, Pirate Angel said:

Yeah you dont tag #2 WRs unless you can trade him to be someone's #1 I think that's what they did with Peerless Price when they had Moulds. Giving a guy an average of the 10 ten paid players at a position where he isn't the #1 on his own team and he hasn't shown that he is a #2 doesn't make sense.  

Talking 20m now and a fast rising number at that 

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On 8/12/2023 at 9:08 PM, hondo in seattle said:

I think Shaw is right: we let Gabe walk and blame the cap.

 

If Kincaid develops the way we hope, Josh will have two elite targets next year: Diggs and Kincaid.  And then we'll fill the gaps with the other (affordable) guys we have who aren't bad.  And maybe we draft a WR and enjoy his cheap rookie contract.  

 

If we hadn't signed Von for his big contract, we could have afforded a talented veteran WR and OL.  Now we can't.

 

I do get, btw, Beane's philosophy.  It's a passing league so he gives out the biggest salaries to a star QB, star WR, star CB, and a star DE. 

 

We just can't afford two big-ticket players at any position.  And personally, at this point, I'd rather spend money on the OL than on Gabe.  I'm tired of our expensive, talented QB getting mauled.  A better O line would give us a running game.  And it would give Josh more time to scan for receivers.  And that would make the passing game better, with or without Gabe.  


Probably will spend a first on a pass catcher again in 2024 and go Oline in round 2 as well. Diggs is getting older and Gabe Davis is a likely loss in free agency. A first invested at WR will likely fill short and long term needs as would an offensive line pick.

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1 hour ago, bobobonators said:

How much longer is Diggs going to be elite? He turns 30 in 3 months. 
 

We need to start thinking about the future at WR. Id be willing to roll the dice with Davis being part of the future. 
 

 


Id argue that re-signing Davis to be a part of the future only hinders your ability to acquire and retain a true #1.

 

With Diggs age a factor, you need to have as many avenues as possible to be able to find the next in line. And we all know that isn’t Davis. 
 

Re-signing him to even a moderate deal now reduced cap availability for an already strapped team financially. 

5 minutes ago, billsfan89 said:


Probably will spend a first on a pass catcher again in 2024 and go Oline in round 2 as well. Diggs is getting older and Gabe Davis is a likely loss in free agency. A first invested at WR will likely fill short and long term needs as would an offensive line pick.


Yes, and in doing so, you’d hope to get a player better than Davis, so extending his contract does nothing to the top end of your roster other than wasting cap space. 

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3 hours ago, bobobonators said:

How much longer is Diggs going to be elite? He turns 30 in 3 months. 
 

We need to start thinking about the future at WR. Id be willing to roll the dice with Davis being part of the future. 
 

 

He’s certainly not seeing another big money deal from this team.. I’m hoping he’s got 2-3 years of elite play and we can get 1-2 rings.

 

 But who knows.

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