Two week training camp predictions

[Ethan in Cleveland]

Anyone have any surprise cuts or surprise players to make the 53

Pre camp I think I posted they would only keep 9 DL. Now I think they will keep 10 with Miller on PUP list to start the year. The DT rotation looks solid. I think they will keep an extra DE again this year.

 

Rousseau

Floyd

Basham

Miller(PUP)

Oliver

Phillips

Ford

Jones

Settle

#10 - Epenesa or Ray

 

Surprise cut - Bernard. He does nothing well. He has no size nor instincts. If he was drafted in the 5th or 6th round it would be a non-story.  

 

[mrags]

1 minute ago, Ethan in Cleveland said:

Anyone have any surprise cuts or surprise players to make the 53

Pre camp I think I posted they would only keep 9 DL. Now I think they will keep 10 with Miller on PUP list to start the year. The DT rotation looks solid. I think they will keep an extra DE again this year.

 

Rousseau

Floyd

Basham

Miller(PUP)

Oliver

Phillips

Ford

Jones

Settle

#10 - Epenesa or Ray

 

Surprise cut - Bernard. He does nothing well. He has no size nor instincts. If he was drafted in the 5th or 6th round it would be a non-story.  

 

I think Basham gets cut before AJE. But neither are very good imo. 

[Ethan in Cleveland]

7 minutes ago, mrags said:

I think Basham gets cut before AJE. But neither are very good imo. 

Fair enough. I've been biased against Epenesa since he was drafted. I like Basham's heft on goal line and run downs. Epenesa is a complete liability against the run and he mostly has picked up garbage sacks. I like our other pass rushers more. But you may be right. 

[Don Otreply]

11 minutes ago, mrags said:

I think Basham gets cut before AJE. But neither are very good imo. 

From what I have read, AJE has been more than competent in TC 

[NewEra]

17 minutes ago, Don Otreply said:

From what I have read, AJE has been more than competent in TC 

Yeah-  there’s no chance AJE gets cut.  He’s decent depth and will have a spot in this league as a rotational DE for the next few years imo.  
 

Basham seems worthless on this team imo.  His only value is as an interior rusher on passing situations-  and our IDL is stacked.  I’m praying Beane can get something for him.  I’d take a 7th

[Freddie's Dead]

I was high on Boogie coming out of the draft, but he's a double D.  Time to cut bait.

[GunnerBill]

11 hours ago, Ethan in Cleveland said:

Fair enough. I've been biased against Epenesa since he was drafted. I like Basham's heft on goal line and run downs. Epenesa is a complete liability against the run and he mostly has picked up garbage sacks. I like our other pass rushers more. But you may be right. 

 

He had the best pressure rate of any DE on the team post-Von's injury last season. I don't agree that all his sacks were garbage sacks. I do agree that he is a liability against the run however. 

 

Boogie does nothing particularly well. He does nothing terribly either, but there isn't a single thing I can hang my hat on and say he is above average at X. He is just a bit below average at everything. 

 

EDIT: I agree with you on Bernard though. Unless he wins the MLB job the makeup of that linebacker room makes him the likely odd man out IMO. 

Edited August 7, 2023 by GunnerBill

[Doc Brown]

I really don't see any surprise cuts coming.  If there was I'd go with Sherfield or Shakir.

[78thealltimegreat]

AJ makes it but by all reports I think Shane Ray takes Boogies spot and Brandon just tries to tuck Boogie on the practice squad 

[Solomon Grundy]

I'm keeping Shaq over Boogie

[eball]

The DL decisions are very intriguing.  Hard to see Basham sticking with this group.  Has AJE finally “gotten it?”  What about Shaq?  They love his ability to set the edge but he provides almost nothing in pass rush.

 

Hoping Beane makes the right choices and turns the discards into some sort of capital…

 

[Matt_In_NH]

The bills need to free up cap space for 53 plus practice squad plus in season moves.  I was looking over spotrac and other than redoing contracts I was looking at who they can cut to save money.    The top guy is Morse and with Torrence at guard I wonder if they would go with Bates at center.   If they spread out cap casualties over two years they are more candidates.   I am not saying I think this will happen but if it did I would understand why.  

 

The Bills have a a lot of depth at DL, OL and CB.  I think you could see some trades.   I have seen almost nothing out of Basham....a sign of a good GM is one who is willing to let go of a high draft pick when it becomes clear it was just did not work out.   Lawson was starting last year, are you really keeping Basham over him because he is young and signed for one additional year?

 

At DT, I was thinking Phillips might start on PUP but that is not happening....I think he is on the bubble right now because of the numbers.  I don't like Settle but his contract blows....

Edited August 7, 2023 by Matt_In_NH

[BuffaloBillyG]

30 minutes ago, Matt_In_NH said:

The bills need to free up cap space for 53 plus practice squad plus in season moves.  I was looking over spotrac and other than redoing contracts I was looking at who they can cut to save money.    The top guy is Morse and with Torrence at guard I wonder if they would go with Bates at center.   If they spread out cap casualties over two years they are more candidates.   I am not saying I think this will happen but if it did I would understand why.  

 

The Bills have a a lot of depth at DL, OL and CB.  I think you could see some trades.   I have seen almost nothing out of Basham....a sign of a good GM is one who is willing to let go of a high draft pick when it becomes clear it was just did not work out.   Lawson was starting last year, are you really keeping Basham over him because he is young and signed for one additional year?

 

At DT, I was thinking Phillips might start on PUP but that is not happening....I think he is on the bubble right now because of the numbers.  I don't like Settle but his contract blows....

There are a few guys that stick out to me as potential surprise cuts because of the finances. I don't think Morse is one of them. However I do think Neal is right there as a potential cut.

 

I know how great he is on ST and the coaching staff loves the guy...but when forced to play defense last year he struggled. Just reading the tea leaves of what the Bills did in the off-season, I think he's been replaced. Rapp can do what they wanted him to do on defense...only better. They drafted Shorter who is reported to be a good gunner. As great as he is on ST (and he is one of the best in the NFL) I think the new rules make him a bit expendable.

[HOUSE]

I predict some scrub RT will be signed and the board will riot.

You know, just like every year.

[Ridgewaycynic2013]

Just now, HOUSE said:

I predict some scrub RT will be signed and the board will riot.

You know, just like every year.

Put money on it?...🤔

[Matt_In_NH]

13 minutes ago, BuffaloBillyG said:

There are a few guys that stick out to me as potential surprise cuts because of the finances. I don't think Morse is one of them. However I do think Neal is right there as a potential cut.

 

I know how great he is on ST and the coaching staff loves the guy...but when forced to play defense last year he struggled. Just reading the tea leaves of what the Bills did in the off-season, I think he's been replaced. Rapp can do what they wanted him to do on defense...only better. They drafted Shorter who is reported to be a good gunner. As great as he is on ST (and he is one of the best in the NFL) I think the new rules make him a bit expendable.

I agree he would be a potential cut candidate.

[17islongenough]

Ray might make the roster.  If he does I can see them trading either AJE or Boogie. Most likely AJE just because they have one more with Boogie

[GunnerBill]

19 minutes ago, BuffaloBillyG said:

There are a few guys that stick out to me as potential surprise cuts because of the finances. I don't think Morse is one of them. However I do think Neal is right there as a potential cut.

 

I know how great he is on ST and the coaching staff loves the guy...but when forced to play defense last year he struggled. Just reading the tea leaves of what the Bills did in the off-season, I think he's been replaced. Rapp can do what they wanted him to do on defense...only better. They drafted Shorter who is reported to be a good gunner. As great as he is on ST (and he is one of the best in the NFL) I think the new rules make him a bit expendable.

 

Neal will be on this roster. 100%

[Son of a K-Gun]

1 hour ago, Matt_In_NH said:

The bills need to free up cap space for 53 plus practice squad plus in season moves.  I was looking over spotrac and other than redoing contracts I was looking at who they can cut to save money.    The top guy is Morse and with Torrence at guard I wonder if they would go with Bates at center.   If they spread out cap casualties over two years they are more candidates.   I am not saying I think this will happen but if it did I would understand why.  

 

The Bills have a a lot of depth at DL, OL and CB.  I think you could see some trades.   I have seen almost nothing out of Basham....a sign of a good GM is one who is willing to let go of a high draft pick when it becomes clear it was just did not work out.   Lawson was starting last year, are you really keeping Basham over him because he is young and signed for one additional year?

 

At DT, I was thinking Phillips might start on PUP but that is not happening....I think he is on the bubble right now because of the numbers.  I don't like Settle but his contract blows....

I can’t imagine a team with their sights set on the Super Bowl thinks it’s a good idea to cut their starting Center two weeks into training camp.

[BuffaloBillyG]

18 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

Neal will be on this roster. 100%

You are more than likely correct, however very few things are 100% in this life. As I acknowledged, Neal is spectacular on ST. What I feel may come into play is if McDermott and Beane feel the new rules have devalued the ST position he does not offer enough if pressed into service on defense. 

 

I agree, the odds are very high on him being on the roster. But a team going younger/cheaper and with guys that are more versatile with upside is hardly uncommon in the NFL.

[SCBills]

I'm torn on Boogie, simply because the only DL we have under contract for next year are Von, Rousseau and Oliver.  That, and the camp reports that Boogie has been playing at both DE and DT.

 

I also think Shaq and Ray could be put on the Practice Squad, unless Ray has a tremendous preseason and forces our hand.  

 

Von-Rousseau-Floyd-AJE-Boogie

 

Oliver-Jones-Ford-Phillips-Settle

 

PS:  Ankou-Lawson-Ray

 

Trade candidates:  Boogie and Settle.   If one is moved, then bump up Lawson or Ray.

 

Surprise cut:  Damar Hamlin.  Hyde, Poyer and Rapp are locks, and it sounds like Cam Lewis may be as well.   Are we keeping 5 safeties?

[LABILLBACKER]

14 hours ago, Ethan in Cleveland said:

Fair enough. I've been biased against Epenesa since he was drafted. I like Basham's heft on goal line and run downs. Epenesa is a complete liability against the run and he mostly has picked up garbage sacks. I like our other pass rushers more. But you may be right. 

There both garbage like our backup qbs. Groot & Floyd will have to do the heavy lifting until Von returns.  I wouldn't be opposed to giving Ray a chance?

[Warriorspikes51]

57 minutes ago, SCBills said:

I'm torn on Boogie, simply because the only DL we have under contract for next year are Von, Rousseau and Oliver.  That, and the camp reports that Boogie has been playing at both DE and DT.

 

I also think Shaq and Ray could be put on the Practice Squad, unless Ray has a tremendous preseason and forces our hand.  

 

Von-Rousseau-Floyd-AJE-Boogie

 

Oliver-Jones-Ford-Phillips-Settle

 

PS:  Ankou-Lawson-Ray

 

Trade candidates:  Boogie and Settle.   If one is moved, then bump up Lawson or Ray.

 

Surprise cut:  Damar Hamlin.  Hyde, Poyer and Rapp are locks, and it sounds like Cam Lewis may be as well.   Are we keeping 5 safeties?

 

Shaq is a solid rotational DE and very good against the run. I'd be shocked if he doesn't make the 53.  I'd expect Basham to traded for a late pick 

[GunnerBill]

1 hour ago, BuffaloBillyG said:

You are more than likely correct, however very few things are 100% in this life. As I acknowledged, Neal is spectacular on ST. What I feel may come into play is if McDermott and Beane feel the new rules have devalued the ST position he does not offer enough if pressed into service on defense. 

 

I agree, the odds are very high on him being on the roster. But a team going younger/cheaper and with guys that are more versatile with upside is hardly uncommon in the NFL.

 

I've heard him pretty much tell Brown and Tasker he doesn't think that. The Bills value special teams. Much more than fans do. Neal will be on the roster. 

 

[OldTimer1960]

20 hours ago, mrags said:

I think Basham gets cut before AJE. But neither are very good imo. 

I think Epenesa showed that he can be a good rotational DE last year.  He isn’t going to be a star, but he can be a good player to have on a team.

10 hours ago, Freddie's Dead said:

I was high on Boogie coming out of the draft, but he's a double D.  Time to cut bait.

I was, too.  I’m disappointed that he hasn’t shown more.  I think he is just a tweener between DT and DE.

[mrags]

2 hours ago, OldTimer1960 said:

I think Epenesa showed that he can be a good rotational DE last year.  He isn’t going to be a star, but he can be a good player to have on a team.

I was, too.  I’m disappointed that he hasn’t shown more.  I think he is just a tweener between DT and DE.

I’ll say this. He won’t be here after his contract expires. 

[ColoradoBills]

2 hours ago, OldTimer1960 said:

 

I was, too.  I’m disappointed that he hasn’t shown more.  I think he is just a tweener between DT and DE.

 

Maybe Boogie's fit would be best as a DE in a 3-4 D?

[MasterStrategist]

I don't think this will happen, but if I were to make a surprise pick:

 

Surprise to make the team: Jordan Mims

 

Surprise cut: Latavius Murray

[Ethan in Cleveland]

5 hours ago, OldTimer1960 said:

I think Epenesa showed that he can be a good rotational DE last year.  He isn’t going to be a star, but he can be a good player to have on a team.

I was, too.  I’m disappointed that he hasn’t shown more.  I think he is just a tweener between DT and DE.

Actually he didn't.  When Miller went down they gave Epenesa the chance to start. I dont think it lasted for more than a game or two.  Then Lawson was elevated to starter. McDermott didn't play Lawson as a starter when he was on the team before. The fact he started over Epenesa shows how bad Epenesa is.

I'm guessing he gets the Cody Ford treatment after the first preseason game. He gets shipped out for a day 3 pick.

[HappyDays]

13 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

 

I've heard him pretty much tell Brown and Tasker he doesn't think that. The Bills value special teams. Much more than fans do. Neal will be on the roster. 

 

 

I think the Bills plan is to use other teams' devaluing of special teams players against them. You invested less in special teams because of the new rule? Great, we are going to run out every kick no matter where it's fielded and dare your throwaway players to stop our guys bred specifically for this job.

[GunnerBill]

2 hours ago, HappyDays said:

 

I think the Bills plan is to use other teams' devaluing of special teams players against them. You invested less in special teams because of the new rule? Great, we are going to run out every kick no matter where it's fielded and dare your throwaway players to stop our guys bred specifically for this job.

 

Beane said 2 weeks ago with Brown and Tasker that if Hines was healthy that was exactly their plan. He wasn't even coy about it. He did leave room for them taking a different view without Hines but I don't see any prospect of this regime doing a 180 on the value of STs any time soon. They believe in it and at least for the time you share a division with Belichick I think that is absolutely the right choice. Because he always will. 

[gobills404]

6 hours ago, Ethan in Cleveland said:

Actually he didn't.  When Miller went down they gave Epenesa the chance to start. I dont think it lasted for more than a game or two.  Then Lawson was elevated to starter. McDermott didn't play Lawson as a starter when he was on the team before. The fact he started over Epenesa shows how bad Epenesa is.

I'm guessing he gets the Cody Ford treatment after the first preseason game. He gets shipped out for a day 3 pick.

I’m just gonna politely say that you are objectively incorrect. Epenesa didn’t start any of the 5 games after Von got hurt, but he still stepped up in a big way with 3 sacks and 4 TFL. Both were tied for most on the team during that stretch of games. I’ll also throw that in the 1 game he both started and finished (i.e. didn’t get injured) vs the Vikings, he had a sack and a TFL. I’d be flabbergasted if he isn’t on the team this year.

Edited August 8, 2023 by gobills404

[GunnerBill]

6 hours ago, Ethan in Cleveland said:

Actually he didn't.  When Miller went down they gave Epenesa the chance to start. I dont think it lasted for more than a game or two.  Then Lawson was elevated to starter. McDermott didn't play Lawson as a starter when he was on the team before. The fact he started over Epenesa shows how bad Epenesa is.

I'm guessing he gets the Cody Ford treatment after the first preseason game. He gets shipped out for a day 3 pick.

 

He did, or at least he showed he is a good situational end. He also showed why he couldn't start. Because he remains a liability against the run and that is why Shaq started in base and they brough AJE in for obvious pass rush situations. And he was effective. He had 8 pressures and 4 sacks on circa 40% of the snaps in that stretch. As I said above his pressure rate was the best among Bills DL after Von went down. 

 

I don't see them trading AJE because he can rush the passer. I also don't see him starting because he can't play the run. They will always go with other players in base but there is a place in the NFL for one dimensional defensive ends if they can rush the passer on 3rd down. 

 

He is a cheap situational pass rusher and for that reason he will be on the roster. 

[vincec]

12 hours ago, ColoradoBills said:

 

Maybe Boogie's fit would be best as a DE in a 3-4 D?

That’s probably his natural position and the Bills may be able to dupe some 3-4 team into a trade, but ultimately you have to beat the guy in front of you, no matter what DL position you play, and Basham doesn’t seem to do that very often.

[GunnerBill]

48 minutes ago, vincec said:

That’s probably his natural position and the Bills may be able to dupe some 3-4 team into a trade, but ultimately you have to beat the guy in front of you, no matter what DL position you play, and Basham doesn’t seem to do that very often.

 

And it was clear from his college tape he was going to struggle to. He had no moves, not great speed, not great get off, no bend to speak of, poor hand usage. He beat college kids because he was bigger and stronger staying in college to 24 or whatever he was. That was it.