Is Gabe Davis a trade candidate?

[3rdand12]

23 hours ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

 

Gabe Davis isn't holding the team back on offense.........not having a better #2 option is.   Gabe as the 3rd or 4th option in the passing game would be excellent.

That is part of why I am hoping that these two tight ends motioning , multiple formations ,and perhaps moving  Cook can concern Defenses enough to free up the lesser players.

Ken needs to make it work this year with what he's got. I am hopeful he can help Davis look good too

 

[3rdand12]

20 hours ago, Motorin' said:

 

Sure, except we don't have the guy to take on his workload this season. 

 

I was hoping Beane would take a wr early over the few years to have a potential #1 in the making.  

 

Maybe long term that can be Kincaid, but we will all be amazed if that happens his rookie year. 

 

This season Gabe is going to be #2 in targets most likely. And I'd like to see him make a jump in his catch %.

 

Maybe Knox sees 90+ targets and Gabe drops down to the 65 range? Knox's catch % jumped big time in year 3 from the low 50's his first 2 years. Maybe he's owned more targets? 

 

I also think using the TE more in the passing game could unlock Davis a bit as well. Since they kept Knox in to block a bunch. If Knox and Kincaid combine to wreak some havoc, team's may not be able to employ the stradegy as much of putting the #1 cb on Davis and doubling Diggs with a S and the #2 cb.

 

If this offense can make the safeties respect he TE more, they may have to revert to putting their #1 on Diggs more often which might let Davis work against less talented coverage.

 

All that he he still may be 50% catch rate next year. But I don't see a clear way to reduce his role to #3 yet.  

This is along the lines of where I am at. Just better expressed 

 Thanks

[3rdand12]

19 hours ago, Ethan in Cleveland said:

Get no argument from me on that one. And it makes no sense because he has made some really difficult catches in his first three years.

Thats why its so damn infuriating !
 The leg injury certainly held him back as far as getting out breaks and getting any separation. Hoping that is cured.
But the drops / Reminded me of Knox who seemed to overcome that issue mostly. And Davis drops at critical junctures.
 Maybe he lost his mojo at some point ? i dont know

[eball]

26 minutes ago, ScottLaw said:

I mean it’s a typical @eball post. Saying things that don’t make a whole lot of sense or have much basis for the sake of being a homer. 

This is typical for you — accuse the optimist of being too optimistic because it is so much more fun to expect the worst and predict failure. 
 

[3rdand12]

3 hours ago, FireChans said:

If Davis is our legit WR2, he should be pulling coverage off our other guys, not the other way around.

What other guys ?

We didnt have anyone last year LOL

[rayray808]

Gabe Davis for Jonathan Taylor is the only trade I would do

[BADOLBILZ]

1 hour ago, ScottLaw said:

I didn’t predict failure…I predict exactly what we’ve gotten from Davis. I have no reason to predict otherwise. As @HappyDayssaid, the best thing for Davis is for someone like Kincaid to be 2nd fiddle to Diggs to allow Davis to flourish as a #3 option. 

 

 

Yeah @eball made a fool of himself last offseason mocking any suggestion that the Bills needed to add more receiving help........then after the struggles the Bills had at receiver outside of Diggs he hid all offseason from his due criticism.    Now, of course, he wants to re-frame his woefully bad takes and boorish behavior towards @ScottLaw as justified by his lack of objectivity.   For shame eball.    For shame......

[eball]

I’m disappointed, @BADOLBILZ…where are the 30 emojis in that post?

 

[Augie]

4 hours ago, iinii said:

For the right price he would be dealt in a nanosecond 

 

I overheard my wife telling someone the same thing!   😋

 

This is true of everybody but a few Franchise QB’s. The trade price matters. Would we get a sufficiently lucrative deal to make it worth losing of a key part of the offense in a year where we have a legit shot at a Lombardi Trophy? I’d only trade him for what nobody will give us. 

[wppete]

Game Davis is in his contract year and he is going to ball out if he is fully healthy. We will probably lose him next year in FA. 

[Augie]

2 minutes ago, wppete said:

Game Davis is in his contract year and he is going to ball out if he is fully healthy. We will probably lose him next year in FA. 

 

…and eventually get us a comp pick. Just let him play! 

[wppete]

1 minute ago, Augie said:

 

…and eventually get us a comp pick. Just let him play! 

He’s a 4th round pick, do he qualify for us to get a comp pick if he signs somewhere else? How does the comp pick stuff work? 

[Augie]

43 minutes ago, wppete said:

He’s a 4th round pick, do he qualify for us to get a comp pick if he signs somewhere else? How does the comp pick stuff work? 

 

I honestly don’t know the details. I’d love  a brief explanation from someone more knowledgeable, but I think the size of the contract he gets is important. 

 

 

.

Edited July 30, 2023 by Augie

[wppete]

35 minutes ago, Augie said:

 

I honestly don’t know the details. I’d love for a brief explanation from someone more knowledgeable, but I think the size of the contract he gets is important. 

I’m hoping that’s the case. But I think I remember hearing it has to do with what round they were drafted in, but I really have no idea. 

[Aussie Joe]

3 hours ago, wppete said:

I’m hoping that’s the case. But I think I remember hearing it has to do with what round they were drafted in, but I really have no idea. 

Isn’t it how much they sign for ? 
 

Hence why Beane couldn’t sign anyone over a certain amount most of FA this year 

[MasterStrategist]

On 7/29/2023 at 6:33 PM, BADOLBILZ said:

 

 

Doesn't matter if it's a great TE or slot receiver or a great X or Y receiver.  They can all be a WR1(until a better designation is created).   The point stands......it's been quite a while since anyone has even reached a SB without having 2 WR1 level receiving threats.

 

And you can choose not believe that Juju is a WR1 option but his bulk and catch% numbers say he was firmly within the top 32 receiving threats in the NFL last year.  Maybe even top 75% of first receiving options, statistically.   Now did the Chiefs get lucky that he stayed so healthy?   Sure.  But we aren't talking about a creation of Patrick Mahomes,  he was a 25 year old guy who has had a 110 catch 1400 yard season in his history.  

Using JuJu is a horrible example, just my opinion.

 

1. Who cares about his 1400 yard season, years ago. Why just to prove he's talented?

2. Most important...he was practically non-existent part of their offense in the last 6-7 games (including playoffs, where he disappeared)

 

Chiefs were good bc they were "diverse" with their offense, and had multiple guys who were reliable. 

 

Your original point about having 2 "top tier" weapons & correlation to SB apprarances, isnt bad.  But I'd not bucket last years KC team there (regardless of JuJu season stats).  They won games in the playoffs, and SB, by getting all their weapons involved and not letting Pat get sacked in the SB.

 

Your original point, you should also consider #3 target in those offenses too (maybe you have).  But they had 3 consistent/reliable guys.

 

To me, having 3 mostly reliable passing weapons is more important. On any given play, Josh likely gets to 3-4 reads before pressure breaks down....especially in our style of offense VS defenses that have given us problems.

 

Counting on Kincaid to play a critical role, but he doesn't need to become our #2 target guy...I think you said this in an earlier post...agree with you that Davis should see his targets come down and we become a more balanced offense (intermediate and downfield passing)

[Nephilim17]

6 hours ago, Augie said:

 

I honestly don’t know the details. I’d love  a brief explanation from someone more knowledgeable, but I think the size of the contract he gets is important. 

 

 

.

I'm not more knowledgeable but here's a simple explanation from NFL.com:
 

"To qualify for compensatory picks, teams must end up with more or better qualifying free agents lost than gained in a particular year.

 

Teams are awarded compensatory draft picks between Rounds 3 and 7 based on a league formula that takes into account a player's average salary per year (APY), snap count and postseason awards. While there is an expected level of compensation for a player based on the amount he has signed for, his playing time (or lack thereof) in the upcoming season could alter the expectation."

Davis doesn't have a high salary but he should have a high snap count.

 

I choose to believe if he gets a $10 million to $12 million per year contract from another team that we'll get a third for him. But I want to believe in the power of positive thinking.

[Norcalbillsfan]

It makes sense to deal him now and aquire something for him now because big WRs get paid and someone will pay him even if he has a somewhat down year. 

 

But the likelihood seems low, McDermott is obsessed with Gabe the way he talks about him and I think the front office is all in on a superbowl this year, this is the most talented team they've had on paper, why down grade it for a day 2 pick? 

 

I've never been a huge Gabe fan but he's helped the team in big moments and I don't want to send that away for a day 2 pick next year.

[maddenboy]

On 7/28/2023 at 11:14 PM, BillsShredder83 said:

Side note, even in doing that we can get feelers out on his value and decide if hes worth a tag & trade deal next offseason, and at least have that route as an insurance policy, AFTER having retained his services this year. Ideally see a Peerless Price type situation happen AFTER we snag a ring!

We wont get a Peerless Price situation

 

with Price, we found a team that actually thought he was a #1 waiting to break out.   I doubt any team in the NFL sees Gabe as that.

Edited July 31, 2023 by maddenboy

[GunnerBill]

3 hours ago, Nephilim17 said:

I'm not more knowledgeable but here's a simple explanation from NFL.com:
 

"To qualify for compensatory picks, teams must end up with more or better qualifying free agents lost than gained in a particular year.

 

Teams are awarded compensatory draft picks between Rounds 3 and 7 based on a league formula that takes into account a player's average salary per year (APY), snap count and postseason awards. While there is an expected level of compensation for a player based on the amount he has signed for, his playing time (or lack thereof) in the upcoming season could alter the expectation."

Davis doesn't have a high salary but he should have a high snap count.

 

I choose to believe if he gets a $10 million to $12 million per year contract from another team that we'll get a third for him. But I want to believe in the power of positive thinking.

 

The salary and snap count bit refers to them with their new team not their old one. It is judged on their first year with the new team.

 

If he signs for $10-$12m we are looking at a 4th rounder more than likely. He will have to be north of $15m to be in with a chance of netting a 3rd. 

[Warriorspikes51]

it would be nice to see what he can do while healthy and with less time dedicated to blocking 

[NoSaint]

14 hours ago, wppete said:

He’s a 4th round pick, do he qualify for us to get a comp pick if he signs somewhere else? How does the comp pick stuff work? 

It’s by salary he signs for, so likely a 3-4 as long as we lose more qualifying guys than we sign

Edited July 31, 2023 by NoSaint

[BuffaloBillyG]

8 hours ago, Nephilim17 said:

I'm not more knowledgeable but here's a simple explanation from NFL.com:
 

"To qualify for compensatory picks, teams must end up with more or better qualifying free agents lost than gained in a particular year.

 

Teams are awarded compensatory draft picks between Rounds 3 and 7 based on a league formula that takes into account a player's average salary per year (APY), snap count and postseason awards. While there is an expected level of compensation for a player based on the amount he has signed for, his playing time (or lack thereof) in the upcoming season could alter the expectation."

Davis doesn't have a high salary but he should have a high snap count.

 

I choose to believe if he gets a $10 million to $12 million per year contract from another team that we'll get a third for him. But I want to believe in the power of positive thinking.

OTC has the projections for comp picks next year. Using Juju's contract signed this year with the Pats (3yr 33M) to place in the middle of your estimation...the Chief are projected to see a 5th rounder in compensation next year for that. That would be the ballpark.

 

Now, if Davis walked next season and got the exact same deal (I think he sees more in the $14-15M range) it would depend on a few other factors. The NFL hands out 32 comp picks. Which would mean any contract he signs would be matched up against the other contracts given out. If more players sign big contracts he would slide down the list. If less sign big deals his would slide up. 

 

Also playing into the formula would be who Buffalo signs that would qualify against the formula. For example, Conner McGovern while not an enormous deal does count against us. At the end of it all, Buffalo has to have lost more qualifying players then they signed. As a reminders, players that are traded to Buffalo or released from their previous team DO NOT count no matter how large a deal they sign. For example, DHop would not have counted against the formula because he was released. Allen Lazard would have counted against the formula because his contract expired.

 

https://overthecap.com/compensatory-picks

Edited July 31, 2023 by BuffaloBillyG

[drumizen]

On 7/28/2023 at 11:44 PM, transplantbillsfan said:

I don't think we trade him, but recent events make me wonder. By all reports sounds like Sherfield and Harty are flashing in camp. With Kincaid and Knox we're going to run more 12 personnel than at any point during the Allen era, making WRs more expendable.

 

And then we sign a recent 2nd round WR in Andy Isabella. I realize he's been a bust thus far, but why would Beane bother bringing him in if he thought our WR corps was set?

 

And that's where the guesswork comes into play...

 

I'm sure most view it as Shakir insurance based on his reportedly poor start to camp. I think that'd be financially kinda silly considering Shakir showed some potential in actual NFL games and he's one of only 2 or 3 (if Shorter makes the team) WRs still under contract after 2023.

 

Gabe Davis will get a contract next season likely (as of this moment at least) in the $10-$15 million range, and I think that's actually below (maybe well below) what he'll actually get. We all know Buffalo’s CAP situation and what we're already gonna be paying Diggs since there's no out on his contract for 3 or 4 years. 

 

$40+ million (conservatively) a year to 2 WRs?

 

And then there's this from the first few TC practices from Joe B's day 3 report at The Athletic:

 

Davis targeted minimally the last two practices

Following the Bills’ second day of practice, starting receiver Gabe Davis was quite candid about some of his physical and mental struggles during the 2022 season, stemming from an early-year high ankle sprain that wound up defining his output. He didn’t take the leap many were hoping for, but he remains very well thought of throughout the building. There’s no doubt Davis looks a lot smoother and more explosive on his routes than from when he was injured, but it hasn’t translated to much production through the early portion of camp. Of those 37 Allen pass attempts over the last two practices, Davis was only targeted in team drills twice. Both targets occurred on Friday, and to Davis’ credit, he brought in both for a shorter reception. Over the same span, Diggs (10), Trent Sherfield (6), Knox (5) and Kincaid (3) were all targeted more often by Allen. It could just be the start of camp and a feeling out process with Allen and Davis, or perhaps it’s a continuation of the lower target share Davis accrued during 2022. Either way, all eyes will be on the now-healthy Davis in a contract year.

 

I know this... we already have a lot of draft capital next year and Beane loves trading up. What do you think Gabe fetches? A 3rd? A 4th? I think we could at least get a 4th for him, which is where he was drafted. 

 

Then Big Baller Beane uses all those draft picks to get our next #1 in waiting in next year's draft...

 

Marvin Harrison Jr. anyone????

Isabella was signed as a kick/punt returner. He wont play WR if he makes the 53.

[BADOLBILZ]

9 hours ago, MasterStrategist said:

Using JuJu is a horrible example, just my opinion.

 

1. Who cares about his 1400 yard season, years ago. Why just to prove he's talented?

2. Most important...he was practically non-existent part of their offense in the last 6-7 games (including playoffs, where he disappeared)

 

Chiefs were good bc they were "diverse" with their offense, and had multiple guys who were reliable. 

 

Your original point about having 2 "top tier" weapons & correlation to SB apprarances, isnt bad.  But I'd not bucket last years KC team there (regardless of JuJu season stats).  They won games in the playoffs, and SB, by getting all their weapons involved and not letting Pat get sacked in the SB.

 

Your original point, you should also consider #3 target in those offenses too (maybe you have).  But they had 3 consistent/reliable guys.

 

To me, having 3 mostly reliable passing weapons is more important. On any given play, Josh likely gets to 3-4 reads before pressure breaks down....especially in our style of offense VS defenses that have given us problems.

 

Counting on Kincaid to play a critical role, but he doesn't need to become our #2 target guy...I think you said this in an earlier post...agree with you that Davis should see his targets come down and we become a more balanced offense (intermediate and downfield passing)

 

 

Horrible example?   Juju was 24th in the NFL in receiving yards and had a 77% catch rate.    He was firmly in the top 32 receiving weapons in the NFL last year.   It's pretty simple math, really.   

 

The idea that you just need "mulitiple guys who are reliable" is what's horrible.  

 

As is the notion among some ignorant Bills fans have that the Chiefs didn't invest much in their WR corps.

 

They had $34M aav tied up in their top 3 receivers last year(Kelce $14M+ Juju $9.2M and MVS $10M).   Obviously the only team in the NFL where all 3 of the top 3 WR options were over $9M aav.  They also had their 2019 2nd rounder(Hardman) a 2022 2nd rounder(Moore) and a 2021 1st(Toney) playing in reserve for chrissake.   It was not a bunch of try hards that were just elevated by Mahomes. 

 

[FireChans]

58 minutes ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

 

Horrible example?   Juju was 24th in the NFL in receiving yards and had a 77% catch rate.    He was firmly in the top 32 receiving weapons in the NFL last year.   It's pretty simple math, really.   

 

The idea that you just need "mulitiple guys who are reliable" is what's horrible.  

 

As is the notion among some ignorant Bills fans have that the Chiefs didn't invest much in their WR corps.

 

They had $34M aav tied up in their top 3 receivers last year(Kelce $14M+ Juju $9.2M and MVS $10M).   Obviously the only team in the NFL where all 3 of the top 3 WR options were over $9M aav.  They also had their 2019 2nd rounder(Hardman) a 2022 2nd rounder(Moore) and a 2021 1st(Toney) playing in reserve for chrissake.   It was not a bunch of try hards that were just elevated by Mahomes. 

 

There’s revisionist history because this board tried to clown the Juju and MVS signings, then Mahomes dominated sans a HoF target, so now they are trapped between “his receivers are bums we will definitely beat them” and “his receivers are better than ours that’s why Mahomes went further than Allen.” It’s contortion city.

[Orlando Tim]

The only team that would trade more than a 3rd for him believes he is about to breakout, which I don't believe is true, because you have to trade for him and then pay him, while you could just pay him next year. He will play out year and get us some kind of comp pick next year.

[MasterStrategist]

2 hours ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

 

Horrible example?   Juju was 24th in the NFL in receiving yards and had a 77% catch rate.    He was firmly in the top 32 receiving weapons in the NFL last year.   It's pretty simple math, really.   

 

The idea that you just need "mulitiple guys who are reliable" is what's horrible.  

 

As is the notion among some ignorant Bills fans have that the Chiefs didn't invest much in their WR corps.

 

They had $34M aav tied up in their top 3 receivers last year(Kelce $14M+ Juju $9.2M and MVS $10M).   Obviously the only team in the NFL where all 3 of the top 3 WR options were over $9M aav.  They also had their 2019 2nd rounder(Hardman) a 2022 2nd rounder(Moore) and a 2021 1st(Toney) playing in reserve for chrissake.   It was not a bunch of try hards that were just elevated by Mahomes. 

 

Yeah and Jujus 9.2 yards per target VS Gabe at 9.0

 

Juju: 101 targets and 933 yards and 3 Tds

Gabe: 93 targets and 836 yards and 7 Tds

 

Adjust Gabes stats, based on 101 targets and we get 909 yards.  

 

Obviously these guys play different roles in their offense, but JuJu was targeted on short/quick passes (ie a slot role).  He's nowhere near a #1, just a target hog in that offense LY.  

 

Yet somehow JuJu finishes #74 in the league with just 3 Tds.  Dude isn't a #1 receiver and no where close to it, since his days with Steelers.  He also didn't get paid like it by NE...

 

More stats: his last 8 games, including Playoffs.  42 targets, 334 yards, 1 TD.  Equates to 89 targets, 709 yards, and 2 Tds across 17 games..

 

What's my point?:

1. He was not a #1 LY,  just bc he got targets.  He basically was single coverage every play, and avg 5.5 air yards per reception. Translation - he got a million short passes and had space to operate in that offense.

 

2. He was getting phased out during the stretch run/played a complimentary role especially in playoffs

 

3. AAV his new deal, after just putting up his best statistical year in recent time...a whopping $9m.  That's gonna be less than Gabe wil get, and basically depicts what JuJu is...a #3/slot role guy.

 

GMs aren't agreeing with your take, otherwise JuJu would have received more on the open market...right?

[BADOLBILZ]

4 hours ago, MasterStrategist said:

Yeah and Jujus 9.2 yards per target VS Gabe at 9.0

 

Juju: 101 targets and 933 yards and 3 Tds

Gabe: 93 targets and 836 yards and 7 Tds

 

Adjust Gabes stats, based on 101 targets and we get 909 yards.  

 

Obviously these guys play different roles in their offense, but JuJu was targeted on short/quick passes (ie a slot role).  He's nowhere near a #1, just a target hog in that offense LY.  

 

Yet somehow JuJu finishes #74 in the league with just 3 Tds.  Dude isn't a #1 receiver and no where close to it, since his days with Steelers.  He also didn't get paid like it by NE...

 

More stats: his last 8 games, including Playoffs.  42 targets, 334 yards, 1 TD.  Equates to 89 targets, 709 yards, and 2 Tds across 17 games..

 

What's my point?:

1. He was not a #1 LY,  just bc he got targets.  He basically was single coverage every play, and avg 5.5 air yards per reception. Translation - he got a million short passes and had space to operate in that offense.

 

2. He was getting phased out during the stretch run/played a complimentary role especially in playoffs

 

3. AAV his new deal, after just putting up his best statistical year in recent time...a whopping $9m.  That's gonna be less than Gabe wil get, and basically depicts what JuJu is...a #3/slot role guy.

 

GMs aren't agreeing with your take, otherwise JuJu would have received more on the open market...right?

 

 

 

Passer ratings when targeted in 2022:

 

Juju  102.5 

Gabe   80.8

 

Every time Allen threw the ball to Gabriel Davis it made him look like a drastically worse passer than he is.    He really dragged Allen down almost singlehandedly.   

 

Do I really need to say much more?  These players were not comparably effective.    

[John from Riverside]

He’s starting to look more like a candidate for getting extension before the season starts

[MasterStrategist]

55 minutes ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

 

 

Passer ratings when targeted in 2022:

 

Juju  102.5 

Gabe   80.8

 

Every time Allen threw the ball to Gabriel Davis it made him look like a drastically worse passer than he is.    He really dragged Allen down almost singlehandedly.   

 

Do I really need to say much more?  These players were not comparably effective.    

Dude you honestly want to compare passer rating, with a SLOT wr versus a DOWNFIELD wr.  You are now cherry picking stats.

 

Bottom line, go argue JuJu is a "WR1" until you're blue in the face...I don't care.  But he's no longer a prolific WR, even being as young/experienced as he is....he was ONLY able to attract a very modest 3 yr 26M deal this offseason.

 

Again, if there was a single GM in the NFL that views JuJu as a Wr1, there would have been a much higher contract offered / JuJu wouldn't have accepted such a low-ball #.

 

I don't care about JuJu, I care about the point you're trying to make (unsuccessfully)...that we NEED two WR1 (or passing weapons) to be on-par with past SB teams.  Those teams weren't about 1 factor, they also had:

1. Great or Very good OL and at least 1 elite def line player

2. 3 consistent WR/TE passing targets

3. Defenses that could apply pressure on opposing QBs

 

Not simple correlation, like you're trying to point out.  

 

Either way, stay with your story.  I'll stick with mine...which has been about improving IOL and finding a consistent slot option (doesn't need to be a #2 target eater in our offense). 

 

Teams tried to bring pressure/cover 1 or cover 0 looks, and/or funneled coverage to make Josh go 1-1 to middle of the field/slot targets.  We had absolutely NOBODY in that role, who could be a reliable target for Josh.  Knox was also forced to be kept in on protection too often, because our OL struggled or due to the blitz looks.  Only time we had success was moving Diggs inside.

 

Dont want to believe me, how about go listen to Beane's post season/offseason pressures.  Top that with Beanes actions/top investments:

1. 2 slot WRs: Harty and Sherfield

2. 1st round pick: SLOT

3. IOL additions 

 

It was clear as day to anyone who understands what this offense wants to emphasize.  It's mission critical to have a capable player in the slot.  Beane failed LY, he thought he was getting solid guy in Crowder (but he got hurt).  This year, he not only invested FA $s but also our top draft pick.  

 

If WR2 was so important to him, he would have found a way to get Dhop or someone else.  Nobody thought we'd land Von last offseason, but that was 2021's biggest weakness (pressuring and ultimately sacking the QB).. so Beane focused on it.

[BADOLBILZ]

24 minutes ago, MasterStrategist said:

Dude you honestly want to compare passer rating, with a SLOT wr versus a DOWNFIELD wr.  You are now cherry picking stats.

 

 

A high passer rating isn't a function of catching shorter passes.

 

The top passer ratings of the players who had 100+ targets:

 

1) Stefon Diggs 120.3

2) Jaylen Waddle 119.5

3) Travis Kelce 117.2

4) Brandon Aiyuk 115.9

5) Tee Higgins 115.6

6) AJ Brown 112.3

7) Devonta Smith 111

 

16) Juju Smith-Schuster

 

And on either side of juju it's OTHER big play guys...........because it's weighted for impact.

 

I guess you don't get it and apparently don't want to know.........so I am basically arguing with the ignorant.    

 

[ChronicAndKnuckles]

Davis has improved every single season and I think it would be incredibly short-sighted to trade him now. Unless it’s a player for player trade at a position of need for the Bills. He’s not an ideal 2, but he is more than capable. Who would replace him ? 

[MasterStrategist]

2 minutes ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

 

A high passer rating isn't a function of catching shorter passes.

 

The top passer ratings of the players who had 100+ targets:

 

1) Stefon Diggs 120.3

2) Jaylen Waddle 119.5

3) Travis Kelce 117.2

4) Brandon Aiyuk 115.9

5) Tee Higgins 115.6

6) AJ Brown 112.3

7) Devonta Smith 111

 

16) Juju Smith-Schuster

 

And on either side of juju it's OTHER big play guys...........because it's weighted for impact.

 

I guess you don't get it and apparently don't want to know.........so I am basically arguing with the ignorant.    

 

It's where they are being targeted...🤔

 

Not difficult to understand.  You are reverting to your typical behavior now...lol, must be right or throw insults.  You're a real treat 😋 

 

Let's think really hard on this:

1. Player 1 Avg air target is less than 6 yard

2. Player 2 is greater than 12 yards

 

Wonder whp is who?  Wonder if there's any correlation to throwing a short pass, and completing it, vs throwing deep and incompeltions (overthrown, lower % of completion).

 

Gabe avg yards per attempt = 9.0

JuJu= 9.2

 

Gabes TDs=7

JuJu=3

 

Bills offense needs a JuJu type for the slot, at 60 targets per year.  But he's not a WR1, anymore than Gabe is a #1 WR...different roles in offense.  Gabe is actually better in his role than JuJus, I'd contest.

 

Proof will be in the contract Gabe either gets before season starts OR next offseason.  Gabe will be paid more than $9m AAV, be fun if we could wager 😁

 

[first_and_ten]

On 7/28/2023 at 11:44 PM, transplantbillsfan said:

I don't think we trade him, but recent events make me wonder. By all reports sounds like Sherfield and Harty are flashing in camp. With Kincaid and Knox we're going to run more 12 personnel than at any point during the Allen era, making WRs more expendable.

 

And then we sign a recent 2nd round WR in Andy Isabella. I realize he's been a bust thus far, but why would Beane bother bringing him in if he thought our WR corps was set?

 

And that's where the guesswork comes into play...

 

I'm sure most view it as Shakir insurance based on his reportedly poor start to camp. I think that'd be financially kinda silly considering Shakir showed some potential in actual NFL games and he's one of only 2 or 3 (if Shorter makes the team) WRs still under contract after 2023.

 

Gabe Davis will get a contract next season likely (as of this moment at least) in the $10-$15 million range, and I think that's actually below (maybe well below) what he'll actually get. We all know Buffalo’s CAP situation and what we're already gonna be paying Diggs since there's no out on his contract for 3 or 4 years. 

 

$40+ million (conservatively) a year to 2 WRs?

 

And then there's this from the first few TC practices from Joe B's day 3 report at The Athletic:

 

Davis targeted minimally the last two practices

Following the Bills’ second day of practice, starting receiver Gabe Davis was quite candid about some of his physical and mental struggles during the 2022 season, stemming from an early-year high ankle sprain that wound up defining his output. He didn’t take the leap many were hoping for, but he remains very well thought of throughout the building. There’s no doubt Davis looks a lot smoother and more explosive on his routes than from when he was injured, but it hasn’t translated to much production through the early portion of camp. Of those 37 Allen pass attempts over the last two practices, Davis was only targeted in team drills twice. Both targets occurred on Friday, and to Davis’ credit, he brought in both for a shorter reception. Over the same span, Diggs (10), Trent Sherfield (6), Knox (5) and Kincaid (3) were all targeted more often by Allen. It could just be the start of camp and a feeling out process with Allen and Davis, or perhaps it’s a continuation of the lower target share Davis accrued during 2022. Either way, all eyes will be on the now-healthy Davis in a contract year.

 

I know this... we already have a lot of draft capital next year and Beane loves trading up. What do you think Gabe fetches? A 3rd? A 4th? I think we could at least get a 4th for him, which is where he was drafted. 

 

Then Big Baller Beane uses all those draft picks to get our next #1 in waiting in next year's draft...

 

Marvin Harrison Jr. anyone????

 

You're reaching if you think they will get anywhere near Marvin Harrison JR. They would not get what he's worth if they trade him now. Another 4th round pick next year doesn't help them will in 2023

[Manther]

On 7/30/2023 at 12:11 PM, SCBills said:

Agree on a lot of this, but im not trading Gabe unless someone blows us away with an offer. 
 

Even then, we have a Super Bowl roster and I’m not sure what trade package could be more impactful than Davis playing on a contract year and us getting a RD3 comp pick if he balls out and leaves in FA. 

Agreed!

[BADOLBILZ]

1 hour ago, MasterStrategist said:

It's where they are being targeted...🤔

 

Not difficult to understand.  You are reverting to your typical behavior now...lol, must be right or throw insults.  You're a real treat 😋 

 

Let's think really hard on this:

1. Player 1 Avg air target is less than 6 yard

2. Player 2 is greater than 12 yards

 

Wonder whp is who?  Wonder if there's any correlation to throwing a short pass, and completing it, vs throwing deep and incompeltions (overthrown, lower % of completion).

 

Gabe avg yards per attempt = 9.0

JuJu= 9.2

 

Gabes TDs=7

JuJu=3

 

Bills offense needs a JuJu type for the slot, at 60 targets per year.  But he's not a WR1, anymore than Gabe is a #1 WR...different roles in offense.  Gabe is actually better in his role than JuJus, I'd contest.

 

Proof will be in the contract Gabe either gets before season starts OR next offseason.  Gabe will be paid more than $9m AAV, be fun if we could wager 😁

 

 

 

It's not difficult to understand.

 

But you don't.

 

Those players with the top passer ratings is a pretty good list of the very most dynamic receivers in the league.........it's not because they catch a lot of short passes.

 

They just make a big impact when the ball is thrown to them.

 

The people who complain about Davis' depth of target negatively impacting him statistically never seem to want to consider why the Bills seem to only target him intermediate or deep.    It's been because he needs to get way down field just to get open.

 

He isn't going to catch a screen pass and produce some YAC........he's not going to slant and YAC.........and he's not going to make contested, tight window catches anywhere on the field.  

 

He needs to find soft spots that are in his capacity to reach.   He's very good at eating up ground and pressure CB's on 9's and posts with his long strides.   And then he can come back into vacated areas.......which are ultimately still long throws.    That's basically his game right there.  

 

There are worse skills than being a HR hitter on a team where you get a lot of fat pitches to hit.   But those limitations and his drops are basically why Josh Allen's passer rating drops a staggering 40 points when targeting Gabe instead of Diggs.   That number is unacceptable and illustrates why teams now just double Diggs and take their chances.   

 

 

[MasterStrategist]

38 minutes ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

 

It's not difficult to understand.

 

But you don't.

 

Those players with the top passer ratings is a pretty good list of the very most dynamic receivers in the league.........it's not because they catch a lot of short passes.

 

They just make a big impact when the ball is thrown to them.

 

The people who complain about Davis' depth of target negatively impacting him statistically never seem to want to consider why the Bills seem to only target him intermediate or deep.    It's been because he needs to get way down field just to get open.

 

He isn't going to catch a screen pass and produce some YAC........he's not going to slant and YAC.........and he's not going to make contested, tight window catches anywhere on the field.  

 

He needs to find soft spots that are in his capacity to reach.   He's very good at eating up ground and pressure CB's on 9's and posts with his long strides.   And then he can come back into vacated areas.......which are ultimately still long throws.    That's basically his game right there.  

 

There are worse skills than being a HR hitter on a team where you get a lot of fat pitches to hit.   But those limitations and his drops are basically why Josh Allen's passer rating drops a staggering 40 points when targeting Gabe instead of Diggs.   That number is unacceptable and illustrates why teams now just double Diggs and take their chances.   

 

 

Yes the "rest" of the WRs, not JuJu.  That's a you problem for not understanding. 

 

Again, the man just got his market value shown to him....$9m AAV.  Is that Wr1 money?  You keep avoiding that question, I wonder why?

 

Carry on...  brick walls give more than you

[dave mcbride]

1 hour ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

 

It's not difficult to understand.

 

But you don't.

 

Those players with the top passer ratings is a pretty good list of the very most dynamic receivers in the league.........it's not because they catch a lot of short passes.

 

They just make a big impact when the ball is thrown to them.

 

The people who complain about Davis' depth of target negatively impacting him statistically never seem to want to consider why the Bills seem to only target him intermediate or deep.    It's been because he needs to get way down field just to get open.

 

He isn't going to catch a screen pass and produce some YAC........he's not going to slant and YAC.........and he's not going to make contested, tight window catches anywhere on the field.  

 

He needs to find soft spots that are in his capacity to reach.   He's very good at eating up ground and pressure CB's on 9's and posts with his long strides.   And then he can come back into vacated areas.......which are ultimately still long throws.    That's basically his game right there.  

 

There are worse skills than being a HR hitter on a team where you get a lot of fat pitches to hit.   But those limitations and his drops are basically why Josh Allen's passer rating drops a staggering 40 points when targeting Gabe instead of Diggs.   That number is unacceptable and illustrates why teams now just double Diggs and take their chances.   

 

 

It’d be interesting to compare the advanced stats of Davis with Alvin Harper (and Diggs with Irvin during that same time period) and correcting for the change in rules.

[BillsVet]

5 hours ago, BADOLBILZ said:

Passer ratings when targeted in 2022:

 

Juju  102.5 

Gabe   80.8

 

Every time Allen threw the ball to Gabriel Davis it made him look like a drastically worse passer than he is.    He really dragged Allen down almost singlehandedly.   

 

Do I really need to say much more?  These players were not comparably effective.    

 

I read this post and the one below and wonder how can people be watching the same player.  

 

And then, at this point, have to consider if/when Davis plays to the level he has how it affects the offense?  Is Kincaid now being targeted more and expected to shoulder a bigger load as a rookie?  The low-end UFA targets Harty and Sheffield getting more targets?