Analyzing 10 years of first round TE production

[HappyDays]

Just now, BillsShredder83 said:

35% snaps on the line. 45% slot.

Even at that, how many of the 35% snaps were blocking vs route running.

The little amount of blocking he's asked to do will be limited.

 

12 personnel forces the defense to make a personnel commitment. 

 

3 LBs? Fine, someone's open. Kincaid is a polished route runner, LB on him is tough

 

Run nickle? We can run it down your throat, or have a DB covering a guy 4-5"s taller.

 

NE has Digger as that hybrid nickle, who does NY & MIA have for that role? Rest of AFC. 

 

It's not a cure all but it's a natural mismatch. Makes coordinators job and Josh's job at the line easier

 

Exactly. I don't know why some people are still acting as if Kincaid and Knox are sharing one role. Beane said it himself, it isn't a secret - there will be times when Kincaid and Knox are on the field at the same time but we are still effectively in 11 personnel. But DCs won't be able to tell the difference until after the snap.

[MPL]

5 minutes ago, FireChans said:

8 minutes ago, MPL said:

TJ Hockenson - rookie in 2019. the Lions won 3 games. Stafford wasn't great, throwing just 19 TDs. The Lions were in the bottom half of the league for offenses. 
Noah Fant - Rookie in 2019. Denver won 7 games. QBs were Flacco and Drew Lock. They were 28th out of 32 in points scored. 
Hayden Hurst and Mark Andrews - Rookies in 2018. Flacco started 9 games before Lamar took over. Flacco was washed. Lamar averaged under 150 yards passing per game in 2018. 
OJ Howard - Rookie in 2017. Tampa won 5 games. QBs were Jameis Winston and Ryan Fitzpatrick. They were a bottom half offense. 
Evan Engram - Rookie in 2017. Eli Manning's last season. He was washed. The Giants won 3 games and finished 31st in scoring. Their offense was bad, and Engram was a lone bright spot. 
David Njoku - Rookie in 2017. The Browns won 0 games. Deshone Kizer was the QB. They finished 32nd in scoring. 
Eric Ebron - Rookie in 2014. Detroit won 11 games, but primarily because their of their Defense. The offense was 22nd in scoring. Stafford was okay that year — 4200 yards, 22 TDs. Calvin Johnson and Golden Tate got the lion's share of targets, understandably. 
Tyler Eifert - Rookie in 2013. Bengals won 11 games and finished 6th in scoring. Dalton was solid this year, throwing for 4200 yards and 33 TDs. AJ Green had 178 targets that year. 
Kyle Pitts - Rookie in 2021. Falcons won 7 games. Matt Ryan was decent but definitely on the decline. Falcons were 26th in scoring. 
Travis Kelce - Rookie in 2013. Missed the entire year with an injury. 

For the most part, these Tight Ends were drafted by bad teams with bad offenses and bad Quarterbacks — or good Quarterbacks who were well on the decline.

I would make the argument that the situation that Kinkaid is coming into is nothing like what these Tight Ends were drafted into. Maybe the closest is Tyler Eifert going to the Bengals in 2013... but I feel pretty confident that Kinkaid has a much better skill set than Eifert, and that Josh Allen is a much better QB than Dalton ever was. I don't believe that past 1st round TE performance is indicative of what we can expect from Kinkaid. 

Will he go for 1000 yards and 8 TDs? Probably not. But this was a top 3 offense last season that improved the interior OLine. He should make more than enough plays to make an impact. 
 

I think the passing yard totals would probably be more meaningful than "scoring offenses" for a comparison like this.   Feels like the relative low numbers of TD's caught/red zone targets would be more all over the place than just raw targets/catches/yards.

2021 Falcons - 16th in passing yards
2019 Lions - 10th in passing yards
2019 Broncos - 28th in passing yards
2018 Ravens - 22nd in passing yards
2017 Browns - 22nd in passing yards
2017 Giants - 19th in passing yards
2017 Bucs - 4th in passing yards (Mike Evans, Cameron Brate, and Adam Humphries saw majority of targets. Howard scored 6 TDs in 14 games).
2014 Lions - 12th in passing yards (Calvin Johnson was a target monster)
2013 Bengals - 8th in passing yards.

This doesn't change my feeling much. Mostly middling passing offenses that aren't comparable to the Bills offense. 2017 Bucs put up the most passing yards on the list and OJ Howard scored 6 TDs that year. I'd be happy with 6 TDs from Kinkaid this year, especially if it means less Josh Allen red zone interceptions. 
 

[FireChans]

3 minutes ago, MPL said:

2021 Falcons - 16th in passing yards
2019 Lions - 10th in passing yards
2019 Broncos - 28th in passing yards
2018 Ravens - 22nd in passing yards
2017 Browns - 22nd in passing yards
2017 Giants - 19th in passing yards
2017 Bucs - 4th in passing yards (Mike Evans, Cameron Brate, and Adam Humphries saw majority of targets. Howard scored 6 TDs in 14 games).
2014 Lions - 12th in passing yards (Calvin Johnson was a target monster)
2013 Bengals - 8th in passing yards.

This doesn't change my feeling much. Mostly middling passing offenses that aren't comparable to the Bills offense. 2017 Bucs put up the most passing yards on the list and OJ Howard scored 6 TDs that year. I'd be happy with 6 TDs from Kinkaid this year, especially if it means less Josh Allen red zone interceptions. 
 

Definitely a lot of those offenses sucked!

 

From a YPT perspective:

Ebron 5.3

Pitts 9.3

OJ 11.1

Hurst 7.1

Njoku 6.4

Engam 6.3

Eifert 7.4

Hock 6.2

Fant 8.5

 

Kind of an interesting discrepancy. Fant with the third highest YPT on the worst passing offense.  OJ with an absolutely electric YPT but a bad career.

[MPL]

4 minutes ago, FireChans said:

Definitely a lot of those offenses sucked!

 

From a YPT perspective:

Ebron 5.3

Pitts 9.3

OJ 11.1

Hurst 7.1

Njoku 6.4

Engam 6.3

Eifert 7.4

Hock 6.2

Fant 8.5

 

Kind of an interesting discrepancy. Fant with the third highest YPT on the worst passing offense.  OJ with an absolutely electric YPT but a bad career.

A torn Achilles will do that to ya. 

[bigK14094]

3 hours ago, 947 said:

TE is a steep learning curve for a rookie & few make much of an impact their first season. But looking at that list, the 2 who stand out, Pitts/Engram, are not true Y-TEs. They're technically F-TEs, but really just big WRs. Their learning curve is mainly route running, since they rarely inline block. Kincaid is in the same mold, he needs to learn the playbook & routes, he should be up to speed much quicker than a traditional TE would. He probably won't be working with Kromer on blocking, he'll be with the receivers.

He will learn to block so that counter tendency plays can be used to advantage.  And, I expect him to do well at it.  He could be a little bigger, but, as is stated here and elsewhere,  he is a receiver first.  I admit, I didn't see this coming, but, as long as Dorsey was part of the decision to go this direction, I am ok.

[Niagara Dude]

3 hours ago, FireChans said:

With Kincaid as OUR first round TE, I thought it would be useful to draw a historic comparison with the production that other first round TE's have made their rookie seasons.

 

Kyle Pitts - 68 rec 1026 yards 1 TD

TJ Hockenson - 32 rec 367 yards 2 TD

Noah Fant 40 rec 562 yards 3 TD

Hayden Hurst 13 rec 163 yards 1 TD

OJ Howard 26 rec 432 yards 6 TD

Evan Engram 64 rec 722 yards 6 TD

David Njoku 32 rec 386 yards 4 TD

Eric Ebron 25 rec 248 yards 1 TD

Tyler Eifert 39 rec 445 yards 2 TD

 

At first glance, woof. Obviously the 2 notable productive TE's, Engram and Pitts stand out.  But both were heavily targeted, 115 for Engram and 110 for Pitts. When looking at the Bills offense, Knox (who will likely remain TE1) has averaged ~57 targets per year.  Assuming Diggs/Davis/Knox are receiving the lion's share of targets again (which they should be), what do you all think is a reasonable expectation for the rookie next year?

I would be pleasantly surprised with a 40 catch 400 yard couple TD season.  I am expecting closer to 30-300.

 

Obviously rooting for him to be Travis Kelce/Mark Andrews/George Kittle born again as a rookie. But the history of the position doesn't support that being the case.

Not one player that you can turned into a star,  just another reason why Beane was stupid to waste a first and fourth on a position that we already have Knox at.  I don't care what number he had at Utah.  They could have traded down and got an extra 3rd and taken the monster TE from Georgia.  I like all his other picks,  just wished he had picked up a monster size DT.

[Chicken Boo]

A lot of posters in here expecting the world from Kincaid in 2023 are going to be very disappointed.

 

He will not be featured heavily in his rookie season.  It's not this regime's m.o.

[78thealltimegreat]

1 hour ago, FireChans said:

I mean, I'm actually curious.

 

If you scouted all those dudes and have Kincaid as, at least, the second best TE prospect behind Pitts, that's really awesome.  I didn't scout them all.

 

If you didn't, I'd love to see from some other amateur or professional scout saying something similar.

Your post is noted 

[FireChans]

1 minute ago, 78thealltimegreat said:

Your post is noted 

How do you know he is the best prospect of all those dudes! I need to know!

[78thealltimegreat]

Just now, FireChans said:

How do you know he is the best prospect of all those dudes! I need to know!

Like I said I will keep your post in mind about the first of November and you will see the way he used is not your typical TE rookie 

[FireChans]

1 minute ago, 78thealltimegreat said:

Like I said I will keep your post in mind about the first of November and you will see the way he used is not your typical TE rookie 

No I want to know, today, why you said he was the best TE prospect of the list of dudes I posted.  Then I can look forward to the 1st of November with you!

[78thealltimegreat]

Just now, FireChans said:

No I want to know, today, why you said he was the best TE prospect of the list of dudes I posted.  Then I can look forward to the 1st of November with you!

November 1st mark it down  

[PBF81]

1 hour ago, NewEra said:

No one cares what you think, why do you care what they think?  That’s their prerogative if they think he’s going to be a star.   You just like to be “that guy”.  Grats 👏🏻 

 

Daniel Jeremiah had him as a top 10 player in the draft.  Why don’t you get on Twitter and bomb on him?  Flex on him with your knowledge.  Maybe he’ll hire you as his assistant if he finds you impressive.  

 

OK  LOL  

 

I'm sure we could review his "top-10s" in past years and find some interesting things.  

 

You willing to hitch your cred to his rankings now are ya.  LOL  

 

You're funny.   At least I leave open the possibility that players can beat the odds.  Apparently everyone that doesn't pencil him in as the next Gronk doesn't know what they're talking about.  ... LMAO  

 

... here's what he said about Ed Oliver;   He's going to be a nightmare for teams to deal with. 

 

That was a good one.   I guess he wasn't wrong.  He's a nightmare alright.  LOL  

 

And according to Jeremiah Epenesa was the "Best Value Pick" in round 2 in 2020.  Boy, he's got a real handle on collegiate talent.  LOL  

 

 

 

Edited April 29, 2023 by PBF81

[NewEra]

6 minutes ago, PBF81 said:

 

OK  LOL  

 

I'm sure we could review his "top-10s" in past years and find some interesting things.  

 

You willing to hitch your cred to his rankings now are ya.  LOL  

 

You're funny.   At least I leave open the possibility that players can beat the odds.  Apparently everyone that doesn't pencil him in as the next Gronk doesn't know what they're talking about.  ... LMAO  

 

 

As you continue to put words in my mouth.  

 

All I did was state that there are others (that actually get paid for their opinion) that view him as potentially elite.  
 

I never said that that was MY opinion.  But continue to make things up.

 

 

 

[Beck Water]

1 hour ago, HappyDays said:

 

Exactly. I don't know why some people are still acting as if Kincaid and Knox are sharing one role. Beane said it himself, it isn't a secret - there will be times when Kincaid and Knox are on the field at the same time but we are still effectively in 11 personnel. But DCs won't be able to tell the difference until after the snap.

 

Well, defenses will get a pretty good clue when one lines up inline as a Y- TE  and the other as an F in the slot

[PBF81]

2 minutes ago, NewEra said:

As you continue to put words in my mouth.  

 

All I did was state that there are others (that actually get paid for their opinion) that view him as potentially elite.  
 

I never said that that was MY opinion.  But continue to make things up.   

 

Well, the implications certainly are there.  Also, perhaps not making an effort to hammer me rather than actually have a discussion would help.   And BTW, you've put some words in my mouth too.  

 

I realize that we're not all in agreement here, but discussion is part of it all.  I just love how all the optimists are 100% right tho all the time.  

 

BTW, given your deference towards paid experts, you did imply that, I added more to that last post, but I'll repeat it.  I'll leave it for you on these two dots as to how to connect them to whereever you wish.

 

... here's what he said about Ed Oliver;   He's going to be a nightmare for teams to deal with. 

 

That was a good one.   I guess he wasn't wrong.  He's a nightmare alright.  LOL  

 

And according to Jeremiah Epenesa was the "Best Value Pick" in round 2 in 2020.  Boy, he's got a real handle on collegiate talent.  LOL  

 

 

[Coldfronts]

I got a feeling he will be used in the red zone a lot in his first year..hands down, pun intended 

[Beck Water]

1 hour ago, Chicken Boo said:

A lot of posters in here expecting the world from Kincaid in 2023 are going to be very disappointed.

 

He will not be featured heavily in his rookie season.  It's not this regime's m.o.

 

Quite frankly, that's bull####.

 

McDermott isn't subtle or secretive about his POV: best 11 guys earn the right to play.  If that's a rookie, it's a rookie.  If it's a late-round rookie over a 1st round rookie, it's a late-round guy over a 1st round guy. 

If a rookie fan fave isn't playing, it's because from the grading the coaches do of practice and game film, he hasn't earned more snaps over the veteran guy.

 

Of course, it was easier to be better than the incumbent earlier in McDermott's tenure when the team wasn't as good, than it became the last couple years with more returning talent each year.  But when there have been holes in the roster, the rookies have played.

 

Tre White, started 16 games and played 99% of the snaps as a rookie

Zay Jones, started 10 games, 79% of the snaps.  He stunk as a route runner and had butter hands, but by damn he played.

Dion Dawkins, started 11 games, 74%

Matt Milano, started 5 games, 41% of the snaps

 

Josh Allen we all know about

Tremaine Edmunds played 15 games and 96% of the snaps on D as a rookie.

Harrison Phillips, played in 16 games (0 starts), 38% of the snaps (on DL where McD always rotates)

Taron Johnson, started 2 games, played in 11, 57% of the snaps

Wyatt Teller, started 7 games, played in 8, 85% of the snaps

 

Ed Oliver, started 7 games, played in 16, 54% of the snaps as a rookie (on DL where McD always rotates)

Cody Ford, started 15 games, played in 16, 69% of the snaps

Devin Singletary, started 8 games, played in 11, 67% of the snaps

Dawson Knox, started 11 games, played in 15, 64% of the snaps

 

Do I need to keep going?

OK

Gabe Davis started 11 games, played in 16, 73% of the snaps

 

Greg Rousseau started 17 games, 49% of the snaps (on DL where McD always rotates)

Spencer Brown started 10 games, played in 13, 78% of the snaps

 

Kaiir Elam started 6 games, played in 13, 57% of the snaps

Christian Benford, started 5 games, played in 9, 62% of the snaps

Khalil Shakir, started 2 games, played in 14, 29% of the snaps

 

Bottom line there's no reason to believe that if Kincaid masters the playbook and game plan and goes hard in practice, he won't be featured to at least the extent that Knox was as a rookie - playing 60-70% of the snaps in every game (whether it starts with him on the field or not).  We have a gap in our roster at slot receiver, Beane has indicated they view Kincaid as a "big slot" type player, the Day is His to be Seized.

 

And the next time someone glibly says McDermott won't play rookies, feel free to link this post for them.

 

[Chicken Boo]

24 minutes ago, Beck Water said:

 

Quite frankly, that's bull####.

 

McDermott isn't subtle or secretive about his POV: best 11 guys earn the right to play.  If that's a rookie, it's a rookie.  If it's a late-round rookie over a 1st round rookie, it's a late-round guy over a 1st round guy. 

If a rookie fan fave isn't playing, it's because from the grading the coaches do of practice and game film, he hasn't earned more snaps over the veteran guy.

 

Of course, it was easier to be better than the incumbent earlier in McDermott's tenure when the team wasn't as good, than it became the last couple years with more returning talent each year.  But when there have been holes in the roster, the rookies have played.

 

Tre White, started 16 games and played 99% of the snaps as a rookie

Zay Jones, started 10 games, 79% of the snaps.  He stunk as a route runner and had butter hands, but by damn he played.

Dion Dawkins, started 11 games, 74%

Matt Milano, started 5 games, 41% of the snaps

 

Josh Allen we all know about

Tremaine Edmunds played 15 games and 96% of the snaps on D as a rookie.

Harrison Phillips, played in 16 games (0 starts), 38% of the snaps (on DL where McD always rotates)

Taron Johnson, started 2 games, played in 11, 57% of the snaps

Wyatt Teller, started 7 games, played in 8, 85% of the snaps

 

Ed Oliver, started 7 games, played in 16, 54% of the snaps as a rookie (on DL where McD always rotates)

Cody Ford, started 15 games, played in 16, 69% of the snaps

Devin Singletary, started 8 games, played in 11, 67% of the snaps

Dawson Knox, started 11 games, played in 15, 64% of the snaps

 

Do I need to keep going?

OK

Gabe Davis started 11 games, played in 16, 73% of the snaps

 

Greg Rousseau started 17 games, 49% of the snaps (on DL where McD always rotates)

Spencer Brown started 10 games, played in 13, 78% of the snaps

 

Kaiir Elam started 6 games, played in 13, 57% of the snaps

Christian Benford, started 5 games, played in 9, 62% of the snaps

Khalil Shakir, started 2 games, played in 14, 29% of the snaps

 

Bottom line there's no reason to believe that if Kincaid masters the playbook and game plan and goes hard in practice, he won't be featured to at least the extent that Knox was as a rookie - playing 60-70% of the snaps in every game (whether it starts with him on the field or not).  We have a gap in our roster at slot receiver, Beane has indicated they view Kincaid as a "big slot" type player, the Day is His to be Seized.

 

And the next time someone glibly says McDermott won't play rookies, feel free to link this post for them.

 

 

Talk to me around week 10 when Kincaid has 20 catches on the year.

[JoPoy88]

6 hours ago, FireChans said:

With Kincaid as OUR first round TE, I thought it would be useful to draw a historic comparison with the production that other first round TE's have made their rookie seasons.

 

Kyle Pitts - 68 rec 1026 yards 1 TD

TJ Hockenson - 32 rec 367 yards 2 TD

Noah Fant 40 rec 562 yards 3 TD

Hayden Hurst 13 rec 163 yards 1 TD

OJ Howard 26 rec 432 yards 6 TD

Evan Engram 64 rec 722 yards 6 TD

David Njoku 32 rec 386 yards 4 TD

Eric Ebron 25 rec 248 yards 1 TD

Tyler Eifert 39 rec 445 yards 2 TD

 

At first glance, woof. Obviously the 2 notable productive TE's, Engram and Pitts stand out.  But both were heavily targeted, 115 for Engram and 110 for Pitts. When looking at the Bills offense, Knox (who will likely remain TE1) has averaged ~57 targets per year.  Assuming Diggs/Davis/Knox are receiving the lion's share of targets again (which they should be), what do you all think is a reasonable expectation for the rookie next year?

I would be pleasantly surprised with a 40 catch 400 yard couple TD season.  I am expecting closer to 30-300.

 

Obviously rooting for him to be Travis Kelce/Mark Andrews/George Kittle born again as a rookie. But the history of the position doesn't support that being the case.

what awfully simplistic analysis! Great job.

[Beck Water]

59 minutes ago, Chicken Boo said:

 

Talk to me around week 10 when Kincaid has 20 catches on the year.

 

Nice side step.  No one is arguing that Kincaid will automagically be great.

 

You stated that "it's not in this regime's MO" to feature a drafted player in his rookie season.

I put together examples going back years, showing that simply isn't true; rookies are featured, if there's an open spot for them and they seize their day.

 

Telling me to talk to you Week 10 when Kincaid has 20 catches on the year does not provide counter-evidence to prove your point.

 

In fact, up-thread, I pointed out that IMO a contribution similar to McKenzie's (42 receptions, 420 yds) would be a good floor and something similar to Beasley-in-Dallas production of 50 receptions, 540 yds would be reasonable.  So 20 catches by week 10 (including a bye week, so just over half the 17 game season) would be right in line with what I suggested as a floor.

 

But it won't be because "this regime" won't feature a rookie.  It will be because that's where he's at as far as understanding our offense, running the routes he's supposed to run, getting open, and catching the ball.

 

 

[FireChans]

1 hour ago, Beck Water said:

 

Nice side step.  No one is arguing that Kincaid will automagically be great.

 

You stated that "it's not in this regime's MO" to feature a drafted player in his rookie season.

I put together examples going back years, showing that simply isn't true; rookies are featured, if there's an open spot for them and they seize their day.

 

Telling me to talk to you Week 10 when Kincaid has 20 catches on the year does not provide counter-evidence to prove your point.

 

In fact, up-thread, I pointed out that IMO a contribution similar to McKenzie's (42 receptions, 420 yds) would be a good floor and something similar to Beasley-in-Dallas production of 50 receptions, 540 yds would be reasonable.  So 20 catches by week 10 (including a bye week, so just over half the 17 game season) would be right in line with what I suggested as a floor.

 

But it won't be because "this regime" won't feature a rookie.  It will be because that's where he's at as far as understanding our offense, running the routes he's supposed to run, getting open, and catching the ball.

 

 

My man, there is a dude in this very topic who said he is the best TE prospect in the last 10 years, and would have been better than Pitts if he was in the SEC.

2 hours ago, JoPoy88 said:

what awfully simplistic analysis! Great job.

Did you post anything meaningful today?  Legacy points deducted.

[ExiledInIllinois]

What about Mike Ditka, 1961:

 

1961 56Catches 1076yards 19.2Avg. 12Td 76long

 

Pretty impressive!

[klos63]

10 hours ago, FireChans said:

With Kincaid as OUR first round TE, I thought it would be useful to draw a historic comparison with the production that other first round TE's have made their rookie seasons.

 

Kyle Pitts - 68 rec 1026 yards 1 TD

TJ Hockenson - 32 rec 367 yards 2 TD

Noah Fant 40 rec 562 yards 3 TD

Hayden Hurst 13 rec 163 yards 1 TD

OJ Howard 26 rec 432 yards 6 TD

Evan Engram 64 rec 722 yards 6 TD

David Njoku 32 rec 386 yards 4 TD

Eric Ebron 25 rec 248 yards 1 TD

Tyler Eifert 39 rec 445 yards 2 TD

 

At first glance, woof. Obviously the 2 notable productive TE's, Engram and Pitts stand out.  But both were heavily targeted, 115 for Engram and 110 for Pitts. When looking at the Bills offense, Knox (who will likely remain TE1) has averaged ~57 targets per year.  Assuming Diggs/Davis/Knox are receiving the lion's share of targets again (which they should be), what do you all think is a reasonable expectation for the rookie next year?

I would be pleasantly surprised with a 40 catch 400 yard couple TD season.  I am expecting closer to 30-300.

 

Obviously rooting for him to be Travis Kelce/Mark Andrews/George Kittle born again as a rookie. But the history of the position doesn't support that being the case.

These obviously mean nothing in regards to Kincaid. Plus he is moving into a very pass happy offense with an MVP caliber QB. I don't know what to expect, but I wouldn't be surprised to see him have a big impact on the offense.

[PBF81]

15 minutes ago, klos63 said:

These obviously mean nothing in regards to Kincaid. Plus he is moving into a very pass happy offense with an MVP caliber QB. I don't know what to expect, but I wouldn't be surprised to see him have a big impact on the offense.

 

That's right, good point, we don't know what to expect.  But we can at least use last season's info for a guide.  

 

Only three of our WRs/TEs had more than 42 catches, only one had more than 48.  The fourth one, McKenzie, had 42.  After him, 10, 8, 6, 4.  

 

We have Diggs, Davis, Shakir, Hasty, Sherfield, Knox, and Kincaid.  Knox is getting a bundle too, it's doubtful that he'll be relegated to backup status, and he shouldn't be until if/when Kincaid proves to be the better TE.  

 

Either way, a good exercise would be dividing on or about those 270 catches amongst our 7 receivers.  

 

 

[Koufax]

10 hours ago, KDIGGZ said:

The point by the OP is that this guy can have a great year by TE standards and it won't amount to much production at all. He might be great but who cares if he only has 400 yards receiving? That's not pushing us over the edge towards super bowl contention

If you think 27 (25) bears on his shoulders pushing us over the edge then you have bough in to the ESPN/NFL promote the off season hype. Be the best player you can be over five years knowing that rookie impact varies. Do that year after year at 25 and I hope pretty soon at 32 and good things happen. I love the upside of this pick. Someone behind him will be better and someone in front of him will be worse. But at the time we pick he was at the top of my board and can have an impact immediate but doesn’t have to. Go Bills. 

[Chicken Boo]

5 hours ago, Beck Water said:

 

Nice side step.  No one is arguing that Kincaid will automagically be great.

 

You stated that "it's not in this regime's MO" to feature a drafted player in his rookie season.

I put together examples going back years, showing that simply isn't true; rookies are featured, if there's an open spot for them and they seize their day.

 

Telling me to talk to you Week 10 when Kincaid has 20 catches on the year does not provide counter-evidence to prove your point.

 

In fact, up-thread, I pointed out that IMO a contribution similar to McKenzie's (42 receptions, 420 yds) would be a good floor and something similar to Beasley-in-Dallas production of 50 receptions, 540 yds would be reasonable.  So 20 catches by week 10 (including a bye week, so just over half the 17 game season) would be right in line with what I suggested as a floor.

 

But it won't be because "this regime" won't feature a rookie.  It will be because that's where he's at as far as understanding our offense, running the routes he's supposed to run, getting open, and catching the ball.

 

 

 

What sidestep?  There's a big difference between playing time and being featured. 

 

I'll say it again, Dalton Kincaid will not be a focal point of the offense in 2023.  He'll be lucky to catch 35 balls this season.

[BuffaloBillsGospel2014]

13 hours ago, FireChans said:

With Kincaid as OUR first round TE, I thought it would be useful to draw a historic comparison with the production that other first round TE's have made their rookie seasons.

 

Kyle Pitts - 68 rec 1026 yards 1 TD

TJ Hockenson - 32 rec 367 yards 2 TD

Noah Fant 40 rec 562 yards 3 TD

Hayden Hurst 13 rec 163 yards 1 TD

OJ Howard 26 rec 432 yards 6 TD

Evan Engram 64 rec 722 yards 6 TD

David Njoku 32 rec 386 yards 4 TD

Eric Ebron 25 rec 248 yards 1 TD

Tyler Eifert 39 rec 445 yards 2 TD

 

At first glance, woof. Obviously the 2 notable productive TE's, Engram and Pitts stand out.  But both were heavily targeted, 115 for Engram and 110 for Pitts. When looking at the Bills offense, Knox (who will likely remain TE1) has averaged ~57 targets per year.  Assuming Diggs/Davis/Knox are receiving the lion's share of targets again (which they should be), what do you all think is a reasonable expectation for the rookie next year?

I would be pleasantly surprised with a 40 catch 400 yard couple TD season.  I am expecting closer to 30-300.

 

Obviously rooting for him to be Travis Kelce/Mark Andrews/George Kittle born again as a rookie. But the history of the position doesn't support that being the case.

 

He will not be the typical TE, They are talking about him multiple times in the slot which is Travis Kelce's bread and butter. He is going to be fun to watch and this should also open up Dawson Knox as well who will be the traditional TE. I heard it from Beane and from Kincaid in the interviews what the expectations were.

[John from Riverside]

11 hours ago, Niagara Dude said:

Not one player that you can turned into a star,  just another reason why Beane was stupid to waste a first and fourth on a position that we already have Knox at.  I don't care what number he had at Utah.  They could have traded down and got an extra 3rd and taken the monster TE from Georgia.  I like all his other picks,  just wished he had picked up a monster size DT.

We do a lot of mimicking of the Kansas City Chiefs
 

If Dalton can be 75% of what Kelsey is, it will have been worth the cost

[KDIGGZ]

4 hours ago, Koufax said:

If you think 27 (25) bears on his shoulders pushing us over the edge then you have bough in to the ESPN/NFL promote the off season hype. Be the best player you can be over five years knowing that rookie impact varies. Do that year after year at 25 and I hope pretty soon at 32 and good things happen. I love the upside of this pick. Someone behind him will be better and someone in front of him will be worse. But at the time we pick he was at the top of my board and can have an impact immediate but doesn’t have to. Go Bills. 

They were talking about it on WGR. Unless he's the best TE in the history of the Buffalo Bills then this pick will be a bust. The Bills haven't had much production from the TE position at all throughout their history. Who is their best TE ever? Now look up his stats and you won't be very impressed. TE is not a position you need to spend a #1 on

[GunnerBill]

I think the question of "what does success look like?" for Kincaid's selection is a fascinating one (not just rookie year but career). 

 

I think as a rookie if he could be somewhere around Noah Fant numbers I think that would be a promising year. If he is below Tyler Eifert numbers then I'd consider that disappointing. Somewhere in between would be kinda average. 

[dave mcbride]

1 hour ago, GunnerBill said:

I think the question of "what does success look like?" for Kincaid's selection is a fascinating one (not just rookie year but career). 

 

I think as a rookie if he could be somewhere around Noah Fant numbers I think that would be a promising year. If he is below Tyler Eifert numbers then I'd consider that disappointing. Somewhere in between would be kinda average. 

I dunno; bear in mind that unlike Fant he is on a team with a good vet TE that will be used too. Hard to compare a TE’s stats in a two-TE system vs one in which a single TE is getting most of the attention.
 

Incidentally, Gronk was drafted 13 years ago and wasn’t drafted THAT far behind where Kincaid was drafted (42nd; second TE taken in that draft). He was a first round talent who dropped because of concern about his back (perhaps teams remember this and weren’t scared off by Kincaid’s back issue as a result). Anyway, in his rookie season he had 42 catches for 536 yards and 10 TDs. The next season, he 90 catches for 1327 yards and 17 TDs. The Pats lost that SB because he got hurt in the playoffs blocking for an XP. He was that valuable.

[GunnerBill]

8 minutes ago, dave mcbride said:

I dunno; bear in mind that unlike Fant he is on a team with a good vet TE that will be used too. Hard to compare a TE’s stats in a two-TE system vs one in which a single TE is getting most of the attention.
 

Incidentally, Gronk was drafted 13 years ago and wasn’t drafted THAT far behind where Kincaid was drafted (42nd; second TE taken in that draft). He was a first round talent who dropped because of concern about his back (perhaps teams remember this and weren’t scared off by Kincaid’s back issue as a result). Anyway, in his rookie season he had 42 catches for 536 yards and 10 TDs. The next season, he 90 catches for 1327 yards and 17 TDs. The Pats lost that SB because he got hurt in the playoffs blocking for an XP. He was that valuable.

 

If you are spending a 1st round pick then a) he needs to be on the field and b) he needs to produce in that range - between Eifert and Fant. Anything less would be a disappointing rookie year for me. I am not asking for 800 yards or anything. Somewhere 420 and 550 and 3 or 4 TDs. 

 

Dawson Knox had 388 and 2 TDs as a rookie and he was a total project. I don't think I am setting the bar too high.

[Dr. Who]

If Kincaid is getting significant snaps as a big slot, he should have plenty of opportunities to put up relatively strong numbers. The weakness at slot last year was one of the main contributing factors in the uneven production of the offense. I am annoyed by those who keep bringing assumptions that pertain to traditional TE usage to Kincaid. Kelce is the exemplar that anticipates the kind of career he will ideally achieve. Knox will continue to get TE1 looks, but I expect Kincaid to ultimately emerge as the alternate to a WR2 in terms of priority of targets.

[Billz4ever]

20 hours ago, LABILLBACKER said:

Within 2 years Kincaid will surpass Dawson as TE1.  He just gets open and doesn't drop the ball.  I see him as a large slot receiver. And he will open up redzone opportunities. 

Beane already said they aren't in competition with each other.  If Kincaid isn't going to be used on the line, while Knox continues to play the traditional TE role, Dawson still stays TE1 regardless.  

[Billz4ever]

2 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

I think the question of "what does success look like?" for Kincaid's selection is a fascinating one (not just rookie year but career). 

 

I think as a rookie if he could be somewhere around Noah Fant numbers I think that would be a promising year. If he is below Tyler Eifert numbers then I'd consider that disappointing. Somewhere in between would be kinda average. 

 

I think a lot of Kincaid's (and Knox's for that matter) success or lack thereof this season hinges tremendously on Ken Dorsey.  In an offense that creates the mismatches like Beane talked about and almost dictates coverages to the Defense, I think the sky is the limit.  It's really up to Dorsey to make it happen.

 

The O-line should be better than last season and with a weapon like Kincaid, some of the focus should be off Diggs.  

[Sammy Watkins' Rib]

I'm expecting Kincaid to out-target Knox. Maybe not out snap Knox though. My guess would be each with about 40-50 receptions. If we are to believe that we will use Kincaid as our primary slot receiver I would expect him to out-target and out catch Knox quite easily. 

[Rebel101]

21 hours ago, Warcodered said:

I think the fact that they aren't exactly planning on him being used as your typical TE and more as a receiving weapon in the mold of Beasley might make this less relevant for him.

I agree I see them using him more as a lot receiver and have him line up anywhere. His frames not even that big for a TE honestly 

[Sammy Watkins' Rib]

21 hours ago, NoSaint said:

plenty of those guys are pass catchers. If there are about 4500 yards and 35 or so TDs to go around I think he’s 4-500 and 5 of those.

Knox similar. Davis close to 1k, diggs closer to 14-1500, and the remainder of the depth guys and backs for 1000

 

Let's become a better offense by spreading the ball around more.

 

Diggs, should be 1,200 and Davis should see a decrease in targets so I would say 800 - 900 yards for Davis tops. We need to spread the ball around more. Stop forcing the ball to Diggs and Davis all the time.  The RB's should be seeing way more targets too. 

[Bob in STL]

21 hours ago, FireChans said:

With Kincaid as OUR first round TE, I thought it would be useful to draw a historic comparison with the production that other first round TE's have made their rookie seasons.

 

Kyle Pitts - 68 rec 1026 yards 1 TD

TJ Hockenson - 32 rec 367 yards 2 TD

Noah Fant 40 rec 562 yards 3 TD

Hayden Hurst 13 rec 163 yards 1 TD

OJ Howard 26 rec 432 yards 6 TD

Evan Engram 64 rec 722 yards 6 TD

David Njoku 32 rec 386 yards 4 TD

Eric Ebron 25 rec 248 yards 1 TD

Tyler Eifert 39 rec 445 yards 2 TD

 

At first glance, woof. Obviously the 2 notable productive TE's, Engram and Pitts stand out.  But both were heavily targeted, 115 for Engram and 110 for Pitts. When looking at the Bills offense, Knox (who will likely remain TE1) has averaged ~57 targets per year.  Assuming Diggs/Davis/Knox are receiving the lion's share of targets again (which they should be), what do you all think is a reasonable expectation for the rookie next year?

I would be pleasantly surprised with a 40 catch 400 yard couple TD season.  I am expecting closer to 30-300.

 

Obviously rooting for him to be Travis Kelce/Mark Andrews/George Kittle born again as a rookie. But the history of the position doesn't support that being the case.

Nothing in this “analysis” means much since every player was on a different team, with a different QB, in a different scheme, with a different role, playing a different schedule. 
 

I am not saying he will catch 30 or 50 or 70 until we see how they actually use him.  I expected more from Knox but his targets are not there.  Kincaid will likely not be used as a traditional TE and we could see him as WR3 quite often.