The Myth of the Bills over-focusing on defense in the Draft and FA

[folz]

I constantly see posters say that Sean and Brandon have focused too much on the defensive side of the ball when it comes to drafting and free agency. This just is not true. But, of course, once something is believed, it is hard to get people to see differently. So, this idea just keeps getting bandied about.

 

The only thing that could be said/griped about is maybe that the Bills have spent too many first round picks on defense. But that's it. You can't even say too many premium (or Day 1 and Day 2 picks), as you will see below. The first round is the only place where you can say the Bills have gone defensive heavy, but people say it like it has been a rule across all drafts, all rounds, and every year of free agency (as a whole). 

 

Since 2017, the Bills have drafted 44 players: 21 on defense, 22 on offense, and 2 STers. So, overall, the Bills have drafted 1 more offensive player than defensive players over the last six years. Below is a breakdown by round:

 

Round 1: 5 on defense, 1 on offense (though we should note that another 1st round pick was used on Stefon Diggs, so technically 2 on offense)

Round 2: 2 on defense, 4 on offense

Round 3: 2 on defense, 4 on offense

Round 4: 1 on defense, 1 on offense

Round 5: 3 on defense, 5 on offense

Round 6: 5 on defense, 4 on offense, 2 STs

Round 7: 3 on defense, 3 on offense 

 

So, yes, 5 defensive players to 1/2 offensive players in round one. But rounds 1-3 combined, it's 9 defensive players to 9 offensive players. Rounds 1-5 combined, it's 13 defensive players to 15 offensive players.

 

And how about free agency? [It was hard to get exact FA numbers as some sites include rookie free agents that made the team and some did not, some included the Bills resigning their own low-tier free agents and some did not. I tried to focus on free agents coming from other teams to the Bills in a particular off-season...but by no means are these numbers definitive.]

 

But, to the best of my quick researching ability, since 2017, the Bills have brought in 33 defensive free agents, 47 offensive free agents, and 2 Special Teamers. 

[Special Teamers in my numbers are kicking specialists only, for players like Taiwan and Tyler M, they were listed as either offense or defense depending, despite really being STs]

 

So, since Sean McDermott arrived, the Bills have brought in (approx) 54 defensive players total, 69 offensive players total, and 4 Special Teamers total.

 

I'm guessing that this assumption of being defensive-heavy is coming from the disparity in the first round picks, and the Bills going heavy defensive line the last two years. But again, overall, the Bills have not over-focused on defense when you look at their full tenure, it has only been in regards to first round picks. And I'm sure it doesn't help the perception that those first round picks on defense (outside of Tre White), didn't come in as dominant players right away (Tremaine, Ed, Greg, Kaiir), if they had, I doubt anyone would be complaining that they are over-drafting defense. But, then again, when you are drafting in the bottom-half of round one, it is tough to get one of those guys that just comes in as a rookie and shines right away, so they have drafted a bit for potential (knowing that these players would need grooming time).

 

You can totally question the Bills draft/FA strategy or the individual players they are bringing in (I want more offensive line help too), but this idea that they only focus on defense is as the thread title states, a myth.

 

Go Bills!

 

 

 

 

[RoyBatty is alive]

Thanks and I agree.

 

This board is victim to incredible recency bias and groupthink.  A few posters come up with an idea and suddenly is is all the rage and many accept it as gold.  Another current and similar thread is we need one offensive minded head coach and also Dorsey sucks, blah blah blah.

[Shaw66]

Well, I agree, and thanks for putting this together, but the first round is more important than any other round.   The defense would be just as good, and the offense markedly better, if Beane had found one or two offensive linemen in the first round.  

[CNYfan]

It was mostly the Basham and Bernard picks that have people scratching their heads.  

[msw2112]

I agree with this.  Basham has proven to be a depth player only, which is not good for 2nd round pick and Bernard has, to date, not even achieved that status.  Hopefully, a full offseason in the weight room and playbook will pay dividends for Bernard.  I'm not holding my breath, but some guys do develop slower than others, and he is/was no doubt undersized and underweight for the position.

Edited February 24, 2023 by msw2112

[LABILLBACKER]

26 minutes ago, folz said:

I constantly see posters say that Sean and Brandon have focused too much on the defensive side of the ball when it comes to drafting and free agency. This just is not true. But, of course, once something is believed, it is hard to get people to see differently. So, this idea just keeps getting bandied about.

 

The only thing that could be said/griped about is maybe that the Bills have spent too many first round picks on defense. But that's it. You can't even say too many premium (or Day 1 and Day 2 picks), as you will see below. The first round is the only place where you can say the Bills have gone defensive heavy, but people say it like it has been a rule across all drafts, all rounds, and every year of free agency (as a whole). 

 

Since 2017, the Bills have drafted 44 players: 21 on defense, 22 on offense, and 2 STers. So, overall, the Bills have drafted 1 more offensive player than defensive players over the last six years. Below is a breakdown by round:

 

Round 1: 5 on defense, 1 on offense (though we should note that another 1st round pick was used on Stefon Diggs, so technically 2 on offense)

Round 2: 2 on defense, 4 on offense

Round 3: 2 on defense, 4 on offense

Round 4: 1 on defense, 1 on offense

Round 5: 3 on defense, 5 on offense

Round 6: 5 on defense, 4 on offense, 2 STs

Round 7: 3 on defense, 3 on offense 

 

So, yes, 5 defensive players to 1/2 offensive players in round one. But rounds 1-3 combined, it's 9 defensive players to 9 offensive players. Rounds 1-5 combined, it's 13 defensive players to 15 offensive players.

 

And how about free agency? [It was hard to get exact FA numbers as some sites include rookie free agents that made the team and some did not, some included the Bills resigning their own low-tier free agents and some did not. I tried to focus on free agents coming from other teams to the Bills in a particular off-season...but by no means are these numbers definitive.]

 

But, to the best of my quick researching ability, since 2017, the Bills have brought in 33 defensive free agents, 47 offensive free agents, and 2 Special Teamers. 

[Special Teamers in my numbers are kicking specialists only, for players like Taiwan and Tyler M, they were listed as either offense or defense depending, despite really being STs]

 

So, since Sean McDermott arrived, the Bills have brought in (approx) 54 defensive players total, 69 offensive players total, and 4 Special Teamers total.

 

I'm guessing that this assumption of being defensive-heavy is coming from the disparity in the first round picks, and the Bills going heavy defensive line the last two years. But again, overall, the Bills have not over-focused on defense when you look at their full tenure, it has only been in regards to first round picks. And I'm sure it doesn't help the perception that those first round picks on defense (outside of Tre White), didn't come in as dominant players right away (Tremaine, Ed, Greg, Kaiir), if they had, I doubt anyone would be complaining that they are over-drafting defense. But, then again, when you are drafting in the bottom-half of round one, it is tough to get one of those guys that just comes in as a rookie and shines right away, so they have drafted a bit for potential (knowing that these players would need grooming time).

 

You can totally question the Bills draft/FA strategy or the individual players they are bringing in (I want more offensive line help too), but this idea that they only focus on defense is as the thread title states, a myth.

 

Go Bills!

 

 

 

 

Someone explain to OP that 1st round pick has substantially more allocation points than a 6th or 7th round pick.  The offensive players brought in from FA are dumpster dives.  This math doesn't work.  It's not just quantity,  it's quality from 1st round draft picks to bottom of the barrel FA pick ups.  

[Matt_In_NH]

This has been my thought too since the meltdown started after the Bengals game, however someone posted an interesting article recently that broke it down in some more detail showing a point system that awards more for first round picks than later round picks.  I found that interesting.  You should definitely count Diggs as the 1st and 4th he did cost, that brings it in some.  I do think it is overblown, just like the fire everybody crowd who wants to get rid of the coach and GM because they have failed in the playoffs.  The Bills have won more games than 1 team the last three years, lets blow that up?  Nah, lets find a way to get over the hump.  

 

as a 48 year old who lived the SB years, the drought and now today's run I say take a step back and enjoy the ride..this team is great, there are no guarantees they will win the SB but they have a great chance to, as good as any team does right now.   Lots of big games, national games, our team and city is talked about all the time.  People are a little overhyped in nonsensical criticism.

[uticaclub]

25 minutes ago, msw2112 said:

I agree with this.  Basham has proven to be a depth player only, which is not good for 2nd round pick and Bernard has, to date, not even achieved that status.  Hopefully, a full offseason in the weight room and playbook will pay dividends for Bernard.  I'm not holding my breath, but some guys do develop slower than others, and he is/was no doubt undersized and underweight for the position.

Bernard was selected for special teams, another area we spend too much cap on

Edited February 24, 2023 by uticaclub

[Mango]

1 hour ago, folz said:

I constantly see posters say that Sean and Brandon have focused too much on the defensive side of the ball when it comes to drafting and free agency. This just is not true. But, of course, once something is believed, it is hard to get people to see differently. So, this idea just keeps getting bandied about.

 

The only thing that could be said/griped about is maybe that the Bills have spent too many first round picks on defense. But that's it. You can't even say too many premium (or Day 1 and Day 2 picks), as you will see below. The first round is the only place where you can say the Bills have gone defensive heavy, but people say it like it has been a rule across all drafts, all rounds, and every year of free agency (as a whole). 

 

Since 2017, the Bills have drafted 44 players: 21 on defense, 22 on offense, and 2 STers. So, overall, the Bills have drafted 1 more offensive player than defensive players over the last six years. Below is a breakdown by round:

 

Round 1: 5 on defense, 1 on offense (though we should note that another 1st round pick was used on Stefon Diggs, so technically 2 on offense)

Round 2: 2 on defense, 4 on offense

Round 3: 2 on defense, 4 on offense

Round 4: 1 on defense, 1 on offense

Round 5: 3 on defense, 5 on offense

Round 6: 5 on defense, 4 on offense, 2 STs

Round 7: 3 on defense, 3 on offense 

 

So, yes, 5 defensive players to 1/2 offensive players in round one. But rounds 1-3 combined, it's 9 defensive players to 9 offensive players. Rounds 1-5 combined, it's 13 defensive players to 15 offensive players.

 

And how about free agency? [It was hard to get exact FA numbers as some sites include rookie free agents that made the team and some did not, some included the Bills resigning their own low-tier free agents and some did not. I tried to focus on free agents coming from other teams to the Bills in a particular off-season...but by no means are these numbers definitive.]

 

But, to the best of my quick researching ability, since 2017, the Bills have brought in 33 defensive free agents, 47 offensive free agents, and 2 Special Teamers. 

[Special Teamers in my numbers are kicking specialists only, for players like Taiwan and Tyler M, they were listed as either offense or defense depending, despite really being STs]

 

So, since Sean McDermott arrived, the Bills have brought in (approx) 54 defensive players total, 69 offensive players total, and 4 Special Teamers total.

 

I'm guessing that this assumption of being defensive-heavy is coming from the disparity in the first round picks, and the Bills going heavy defensive line the last two years. But again, overall, the Bills have not over-focused on defense when you look at their full tenure, it has only been in regards to first round picks. And I'm sure it doesn't help the perception that those first round picks on defense (outside of Tre White), didn't come in as dominant players right away (Tremaine, Ed, Greg, Kaiir), if they had, I doubt anyone would be complaining that they are over-drafting defense. But, then again, when you are drafting in the bottom-half of round one, it is tough to get one of those guys that just comes in as a rookie and shines right away, so they have drafted a bit for potential (knowing that these players would need grooming time).

 

You can totally question the Bills draft/FA strategy or the individual players they are bringing in (I want more offensive line help too), but this idea that they only focus on defense is as the thread title states, a myth.

 

Go Bills!

 

 

 

 

Beane inherited the 10th most expensive line in the NFL.

 

He then made it the most expensive in 2019, 2020. 2nd most expensive in 2021. They did drop to 17th this year. But are currently the 3rd most expensive DL in cap dollars for 2023.

 

All the while spending a 1, 1, 2, 2, and 3rd round picks on the DL alone. That same unit has regularly been a top 5 paid unit across the league.
 

You can break it down however you want. But our spend vs return has been abysmal. 

[Doc Brown]

3 minutes ago, uticaclub said:

Bernard was selected for special teams, another area we spend too much cap on

You take him in the fifth round (where he should’ve gone) or lower if you’re thinking backup/special teams guy on a cost controlled rookie deal.

 

They pry thought he could eventually replace Milano after 2023 and would be the primary extra lb in the few times they go away from their base defense in the meantime.  Whiff of an evaluation and maybe a little bit of hubris went into that pick. Who knows though.  Maybe he’ll shock us and take a gigantic leap over the next couple years.  

 

[Mango]

2 minutes ago, Doc Brown said:

You take him in the fifth round (where he should’ve gone) or lower if you’re thinking backup/special teams guy on a cost controlled rookie deal.

 

They pry thought he could eventually replace Milano after 2023 and would be the primary extra lb in the few times they go away from their base defense in the meantime.  Whiff of an evaluation and maybe a little bit of hubris went into that pick. Who knows though.  Maybe he’ll shock us and take a gigantic leap over the next couple years.  

 

This. I don’t think they got fancy. Or Bernard was a luxury pick.

 

I think they thought he would be a player. Which I think is actually worse. If they were getting cute that’s a much easier fix than being that wrong. 

[Doc Brown]

1 minute ago, Mango said:

This. I don’t think they got fancy. Or Bernard was a luxury pick.

 

I think they thought he would be a player. Which I think is actually worse. If they were getting cute that’s a much easier fix than being that wrong. 

Plus there was all this talk of the offenses switching to a more run heavy approach last year which never really materialized like I thought it would.  Maybe they underestimated Taron Johnson.

[Mr. WEO]

59 minutes ago, CNYfan said:

It was mostly the Basham and Bernard picks that have people scratching their heads.  

 

Epenesa

[uticaclub]

43 minutes ago, Doc Brown said:

You take him in the fifth round (where he should’ve gone) or lower if you’re thinking backup/special teams guy on a cost controlled rookie deal.

 

They pry thought he could eventually replace Milano after 2023 and would be the primary extra lb in the few times they go away from their base defense in the meantime.  Whiff of an evaluation and maybe a little bit of hubris went into that pick. Who knows though.  Maybe he’ll shock us and take a gigantic leap over the next couple years.  

 

Watching the rest of their picks not develop. I wouldn’t count on it. 

[Over 29 years of fanhood]

1 hour ago, folz said:

I constantly see posters say that Sean and Brandon have focused too much on the defensive side of the ball when it comes to drafting and free agency. This just is not true. But, of course, once something is believed, it is hard to get people to see differently. So, this idea just keeps getting bandied about.

 

The only thing that could be said/griped about is maybe that the Bills have spent too many first round picks on defense. But that's it. You can't even say too many premium (or Day 1 and Day 2 picks), as you will see below. The first round is the only place where you can say the Bills have gone defensive heavy, but people say it like it has been a rule across all drafts, all rounds, and every year of free agency (as a whole). 

 

Since 2017, the Bills have drafted 44 players: 21 on defense, 22 on offense, and 2 STers. So, overall, the Bills have drafted 1 more offensive player than defensive players over the last six years. Below is a breakdown by round:

 

Round 1: 5 on defense, 1 on offense (though we should note that another 1st round pick was used on Stefon Diggs, so technically 2 on offense)

Round 2: 2 on defense, 4 on offense

Round 3: 2 on defense, 4 on offense

Round 4: 1 on defense, 1 on offense

Round 5: 3 on defense, 5 on offense

Round 6: 5 on defense, 4 on offense, 2 STs

Round 7: 3 on defense, 3 on offense 

 

So, yes, 5 defensive players to 1/2 offensive players in round one. But rounds 1-3 combined, it's 9 defensive players to 9 offensive players. Rounds 1-5 combined, it's 13 defensive players to 15 offensive players.

 

And how about free agency? [It was hard to get exact FA numbers as some sites include rookie free agents that made the team and some did not, some included the Bills resigning their own low-tier free agents and some did not. I tried to focus on free agents coming from other teams to the Bills in a particular off-season...but by no means are these numbers definitive.]

 

But, to the best of my quick researching ability, since 2017, the Bills have brought in 33 defensive free agents, 47 offensive free agents, and 2 Special Teamers. 

[Special Teamers in my numbers are kicking specialists only, for players like Taiwan and Tyler M, they were listed as either offense or defense depending, despite really being STs]

 

So, since Sean McDermott arrived, the Bills have brought in (approx) 54 defensive players total, 69 offensive players total, and 4 Special Teamers total.

 

I'm guessing that this assumption of being defensive-heavy is coming from the disparity in the first round picks, and the Bills going heavy defensive line the last two years. But again, overall, the Bills have not over-focused on defense when you look at their full tenure, it has only been in regards to first round picks. And I'm sure it doesn't help the perception that those first round picks on defense (outside of Tre White), didn't come in as dominant players right away (Tremaine, Ed, Greg, Kaiir), if they had, I doubt anyone would be complaining that they are over-drafting defense. But, then again, when you are drafting in the bottom-half of round one, it is tough to get one of those guys that just comes in as a rookie and shines right away, so they have drafted a bit for potential (knowing that these players would need grooming time).

 

You can totally question the Bills draft/FA strategy or the individual players they are bringing in (I want more offensive line help too), but this idea that they only focus on defense is as the thread title states, a myth.

 

Go Bills!

 

 

 

 

never let facts get in the way of a good narrative 

[Pine Barrens Mafia]

2 hours ago, folz said:

I constantly see posters say that Sean and Brandon have focused too much on the defensive side of the ball when it comes to drafting and free agency. This just is not true. But, of course, once something is believed, it is hard to get people to see differently. So, this idea just keeps getting bandied about.

 

The only thing that could be said/griped about is maybe that the Bills have spent too many first round picks on defense. But that's it. You can't even say too many premium (or Day 1 and Day 2 picks), as you will see below. The first round is the only place where you can say the Bills have gone defensive heavy, but people say it like it has been a rule across all drafts, all rounds, and every year of free agency (as a whole). 

 

Since 2017, the Bills have drafted 44 players: 21 on defense, 22 on offense, and 2 STers. So, overall, the Bills have drafted 1 more offensive player than defensive players over the last six years. Below is a breakdown by round:

 

Round 1: 5 on defense, 1 on offense (though we should note that another 1st round pick was used on Stefon Diggs, so technically 2 on offense)

Round 2: 2 on defense, 4 on offense

Round 3: 2 on defense, 4 on offense

Round 4: 1 on defense, 1 on offense

Round 5: 3 on defense, 5 on offense

Round 6: 5 on defense, 4 on offense, 2 STs

Round 7: 3 on defense, 3 on offense 

 

So, yes, 5 defensive players to 1/2 offensive players in round one. But rounds 1-3 combined, it's 9 defensive players to 9 offensive players. Rounds 1-5 combined, it's 13 defensive players to 15 offensive players.

 

And how about free agency? [It was hard to get exact FA numbers as some sites include rookie free agents that made the team and some did not, some included the Bills resigning their own low-tier free agents and some did not. I tried to focus on free agents coming from other teams to the Bills in a particular off-season...but by no means are these numbers definitive.]

 

But, to the best of my quick researching ability, since 2017, the Bills have brought in 33 defensive free agents, 47 offensive free agents, and 2 Special Teamers. 

[Special Teamers in my numbers are kicking specialists only, for players like Taiwan and Tyler M, they were listed as either offense or defense depending, despite really being STs]

 

So, since Sean McDermott arrived, the Bills have brought in (approx) 54 defensive players total, 69 offensive players total, and 4 Special Teamers total.

 

I'm guessing that this assumption of being defensive-heavy is coming from the disparity in the first round picks, and the Bills going heavy defensive line the last two years. But again, overall, the Bills have not over-focused on defense when you look at their full tenure, it has only been in regards to first round picks. And I'm sure it doesn't help the perception that those first round picks on defense (outside of Tre White), didn't come in as dominant players right away (Tremaine, Ed, Greg, Kaiir), if they had, I doubt anyone would be complaining that they are over-drafting defense. But, then again, when you are drafting in the bottom-half of round one, it is tough to get one of those guys that just comes in as a rookie and shines right away, so they have drafted a bit for potential (knowing that these players would need grooming time).

 

You can totally question the Bills draft/FA strategy or the individual players they are bringing in (I want more offensive line help too), but this idea that they only focus on defense is as the thread title states, a myth.

 

Go Bills!

 

 

 

 

Lol the whole point is they don't ACTUALLY spend premium picks on offense. 

 

The one time they've had a top 10 in this regime, they wasted it on a DT.

 

They started a 4th and 5th round WR this year. And the fifth rounder couldn't crack the lineup till the second half of the season.

 

This is a disingenuous post by you, man. No offense.

57 minutes ago, Mr. WEO said:

 

Epenesa

Don't forget Oliver 

[PBF81]

2 hours ago, folz said:

Round 1: 5 on defense, 1 on offense (though we should note that another 1st round pick was used on Stefon Diggs, so technically 2 on offense)

Round 2: 2 on defense, 4 on offense

Round 3: 2 on defense, 4 on offense

 

To start, the knock for drafting is on Beane, not McD who has his own balls to shag in defending horrific gameday coaching.  "13 Seconds" and our "Whiskey Tango Foxtrot" Cinci game D as two prominent examples.  

 

So let's not include 2017 then since that wasn't Beane's Draft.  Sure, there's irony that it was by a country mile our best one otherwise, but let's focus on the five that were Beane's.  

 

Also, let's focus on those rounds above.  I haven't seen a single post here complaining that our 4th thru 7th rounders haven't turned into All-Pros.  More, much more, is expected from our first three rounds in days 1 & 2.  

 

So, under Beane ... 

 

Round 1:  4 on Defense, & Allen, and one of the defensive picks a major trade-up.  

Round 2:  2 on Defense, 3 on Offense 

Round 3:  2 on Defense, 4 on Offense 

 

But that's not what people are criticizing specifically, it's what we're getting for our draft picks.  I put up the Cinci draftees as starters the other day in another thread, a good chunk of their team is filled with high performing players that they drafted in those same years.  It was impressive.  

 

Who do we have that's high-performing in our drafts as such?  No one really besides Allen.  

 

I'll post our 1st thru 3rd rounders in the starting roles, besides Allen, and ask yourself is that good?  I'm going to include players that have or are about to depart.  Without them it gets even worse.  

 

OL:  Ford, originally taken to play OT, but can't even play G.  

OL:  Brown 

 

RB:  Singletary 

RB:  Moss 
RB:  Cook 

 

WR:  Davis 

 

TE:  Knox 

 

DE:  Rousseau

DE:  Epenesa 

 

DT:  Oliver 

DT:  Basham 

DT:  Phillips 

 

LB:  Edmunds 

LB:  Bernard 

 

If we had to start all of those guys, how would we do?  How would our OL be with Ford and Brown both on it as starters.  Davis is a borderline starting caliber WR, but nowhere near a #1.   At best on D we have streaky performances by Oliver, Edmunds, and Rousseau, but none are consistently very good, and Edmunds now is gone, also part of Beane's duties.  They were terrible in the playoffs if not invisible.  

 

That's what people are concerned and critical about.  We can't keep getting that lack of value in our draft picks.  As someone else put it in one of these threads, our blind squirrel Beane needs to find a nut, possibly two, in this draft.  You cannot possibly build a team like that.  Going the free agency route is a big part of our present problem.  You know what you're getting and you pay for it.  Good management requires finding good players in the Draft that you can have on relatively cheap contracts for 3-5 years.  Beane's not good at that.  

 

 

Edited February 24, 2023 by PBF81

[PBF81]

1 hour ago, Mango said:

Beane inherited the 10th most expensive line in the NFL.

 

He then made it the most expensive in 2019, 2020. 2nd most expensive in 2021. They did drop to 17th this year. But are currently the 3rd most expensive DL in cap dollars for 2023.

 

All the while spending a 1, 1, 2, 2, and 3rd round picks on the DL alone. That same unit has regularly been a top 5 paid unit across the league.
 

You can break it down however you want. But our spend vs return has been abysmal. 

 

My biggest issue with it all is that there appears to be no strategy to build the team.  These guys just keep drafting over themselves every year on the DL as if the picks and time to put a championship product on the field are endless with our originally drafted players never falling off ala Singletary and Edmunds.  

 

What are they trying to do?  To me it seems that they're desperately trying to get pass-rushers drafted.  Well, how many years are they going to use a 1st or 2nd round pick to get one?  

 

What about the LBs?  We haven't had more than two starting caliber LBs over the past three or four seasons.  Do they draft any?  Not really.  What, Bernard?  

 

Edmunds is gone now.  What's the plan?  Start Milano in 4-1-6 or 5-1-5 and then convince us that that's what they've had in mind all along.  LOL   What if Milano goes down?  What, every Tom, Dick, and Harry RB logs 150+ on us rushing?  

 

I mean what's the plan?  They seem to draft players as if they're playing fantasy football or some video game or something.  I don't see any plan whatsoever to bring it all together given the holes that we have at LB and have had for several seasons now, that's only on D.  

 

Offensively, LOL, I guess we're in for more 1 or 2 year $3M a season signees for the OL, so that once again Allen has absolutely no familiarity with any chemistry up front again.  

 

There is no strategic plan for building out the team.  It's all hodgepodge.  That's what we're seeing and that's where the frustration is coming in.  I mean I remember when they drafted Epenesa, who the scouts said was more of a run-defending DE, but our team, smarter by half, told us that he was a much better pass rusher than he showed in college.  LOL, well he's apparently a much better pass rusher than he's showing here in Buffalo too.  

 

People, fans, media, they see this.  They're not all stupid.  

 

[LyndonvilleBill]

19 minutes ago, PBF81 said:

 

To start, the knock for drafting is on Beane, not McD who has his own balls to shag in defending horrific gameday coaching.  "13 Seconds" and our "Whiskey Tango Foxtrot" Cinci game D as two prominent examples.  

 

So let's not include 2017 then since that wasn't Beane's Draft.  Sure, there's irony that it was by a country mile our best one otherwise, but let's focus on the five that were Beane's.  

 

Also, let's focus on those rounds above.  I haven't seen a single post here complaining that our 4th thru 7th rounders haven't turned into All-Pros.  More, much more, is expected from our first three rounds in days 1 & 2.  

 

So, under Beane ... 

 

Round 1:  4 on Defense, & Allen, and one of the defensive picks a major trade-up.  

Round 2:  2 on Defense, 3 on Offense 

Round 3:  2 on Defense, 4 on Offense 

 

But that's not what people are criticizing specifically, it's what we're getting for our draft picks.  I put up the Cinci draftees as starters the other day in another thread, a good chunk of their team is filled with high performing players that they drafted in those same years.  It was impressive.  

 

Who do we have that's high-performing in our drafts as such?  No one really besides Allen.  

 

I'll post our 1st thru 3rd rounders in the starting roles, besides Allen, and ask yourself is that good?  I'm going to include players that have or are about to depart.  Without them it gets even worse.  

 

OL:  Ford, originally taken to play OT, but can't even play G.  

OL:  Brown 

 

RB:  Singletary 

RB:  Moss 
RB:  Cook 

 

WR:  Davis 

 

TE:  Knox 

 

DE:  Rousseau

DE:  Epenesa 

 

DT:  Oliver 

DT:  Basham 

DT:  Phillips 

 

LB:  Edmunds 

LB:  Bernard 

 

If we had to start all of those guys, how would we do?  How would our OL be with Ford and Brown both on it as starters.  Davis is a borderline starting caliber WR, but nowhere near a #1.   At best on D we have streaky performances by Oliver, Edmunds, and Rousseau, but none are consistently very good, and Edmunds now is gone, also part of Beane's duties.  They were terrible in the playoffs if not invisible.  

 

That's what people are concerned and critical about.  We can't keep getting that lack of value in our draft picks.  As someone else put it in one of these threads, our blind squirrel Beane needs to find a nut, possibly two, in this draft.  You cannot possibly build a team like that.  Going the free agency route is a big part of our present problem.  You know what you're getting and you pay for it.  Good management requires finding good players in the Draft that you can have on relatively cheap contracts for 3-5 years.  Beane's not good at that.  

 

 

Well, considering 12 out of the 14 you listed played quite a bit for us this past season,  I'd have to go with a 13-3 regular season record.🤔😉😁

[BADOLBILZ]

 

The draft value of a 1st round pick is much, much higher than any subsequent rounds.    It's value essentially trumps the value of the rest of your picks.

 

So your argument is like saying the Bills emphasize offense as much as defense contractually because they have the same amount of players under contract on both sides of the ball on opening day.

 

It's the value of the investment.

 

And no........Stefon Diggs does not count as a first round pick.........he cost a first round pick+.......but he also cost about $15M aav so he was essentially a hedged bet between a draft pick and free agency.    It's like saying Rob Johnson or Drew Bledsoe were first round picks of the Bills...........an argument oft-used by Bills fans who didn't think the Bills should expend first round picks on QB prospects.   

 

And I mean your work isn't even close to accurate.........the Bills traded picks to move up for Josh Allen that you didn't account for..........they traded the Sammy Watkins pick in round 2 to move up for Tremaine Edmunds.........they traded their own #3 for Kelvin Benjamin...........it's not a very thorough analysis.

 

 

[PBF81]

4 minutes ago, LyndonvilleBill said:

Well, considering 12 out of the 14 you listed played quite a bit for us this past season,  I'd have to go with a 13-3 regular season record.🤔😉😁

 

Play?   

 

We get all of our big plays from the most highly paid free agents.  Poyer, Von Miller, Diggs, Morse, Hyde when he's on the field, or players that preexisted Beane.  Milano, Dawkins, White.  

 

The players that I just listed did next to nothing in the playoffs.  

[MJS]

I think the Bills target certain position groups with the draft and others with free agency. Oline they have heavily targeted using free agency. Defensive line has been both. Linebacker has been the draft.

[LABILLBACKER]

23 minutes ago, PBF81 said:

 

To start, the knock for drafting is on Beane, not McD who has his own balls to shag in defending horrific gameday coaching.  "13 Seconds" and our "Whiskey Tango Foxtrot" Cinci game D as two prominent examples.  

 

So let's not include 2017 then since that wasn't Beane's Draft.  Sure, there's irony that it was by a country mile our best one otherwise, but let's focus on the five that were Beane's.  

 

Also, let's focus on those rounds above.  I haven't seen a single post here complaining that our 4th thru 7th rounders haven't turned into All-Pros.  More, much more, is expected from our first three rounds in days 1 & 2.  

 

So, under Beane ... 

 

Round 1:  4 on Defense, & Allen, and one of the defensive picks a major trade-up.  

Round 2:  2 on Defense, 3 on Offense 

Round 3:  2 on Defense, 4 on Offense 

 

But that's not what people are criticizing specifically, it's what we're getting for our draft picks.  I put up the Cinci draftees as starters the other day in another thread, a good chunk of their team is filled with high performing players that they drafted in those same years.  It was impressive.  

 

Who do we have that's high-performing in our drafts as such?  No one really besides Allen.  

 

I'll post our 1st thru 3rd rounders in the starting roles, besides Allen, and ask yourself is that good?  I'm going to include players that have or are about to depart.  Without them it gets even worse.  

 

OL:  Ford, originally taken to play OT, but can't even play G.  

OL:  Brown 

 

RB:  Singletary 

RB:  Moss 
RB:  Cook 

 

WR:  Davis 

 

TE:  Knox 

 

DE:  Rousseau

DE:  Epenesa 

 

DT:  Oliver 

DT:  Basham 

DT:  Phillips 

 

LB:  Edmunds 

LB:  Bernard 

 

If we had to start all of those guys, how would we do?  How would our OL be with Ford and Brown both on it as starters.  Davis is a borderline starting caliber WR, but nowhere near a #1.   At best on D we have streaky performances by Oliver, Edmunds, and Rousseau, but none are consistently very good, and Edmunds now is gone, also part of Beane's duties.  They were terrible in the playoffs if not invisible.  

 

That's what people are concerned and critical about.  We can't keep getting that lack of value in our draft picks.  As someone else put it in one of these threads, our blind squirrel Beane needs to find a nut, possibly two, in this draft.  You cannot possibly build a team like that.  Going the free agency route is a big part of our present problem.  You know what you're getting and you pay for it.  Good management requires finding good players in the Draft that you can have on relatively cheap contracts for 3-5 years.  Beane's not good at that.  

 

 

If I'm Beane I'm firing half my scouting dept. It's brutal to see us swing and miss on so many draft picks these last 5 years.  And frankly most of our FA acquisitions haven't been earth shattering.  But even a moron knows you start by building a dominant OL around Josh.  In 5 years we've drafted 2 olineman in the first 3 rounds. Ford was a bust and Brown probably will be too. Maybe the true problem with the Bills organization is how they incentivize their scouts.

[Mango]

8 minutes ago, PBF81 said:

 

My biggest issue with it all is that there appears to be no strategy to build the team.  These guys just keep drafting over themselves every year on the DL as if the picks and time to put a championship product on the field are endless with our originally drafted players never falling off ala Singletary and Edmunds.  

 

What are they trying to do?  To me it seems that they're desperately trying to get pass-rushers drafted.  Well, how many years are they going to use a 1st or 2nd round pick to get one?  

 

What about the LBs?  We haven't had more than two starting caliber LBs over the past three or four seasons.  Do they draft any?  Not really.  What, Bernard?  

 

Edmunds is gone now.  What's the plan?  Start Milano in 4-1-6 or 5-1-5 and then convince us that that's what they've had in mind all along.  LOL   What if Milano goes down?  What, every Tom, Dick, and Harry RB logs 150+ on us rushing?  

 

I mean what's the plan?  They seem to draft players as if they're playing fantasy football or some video game or something.  I don't see any plan whatsoever to bring it all together given the holes that we have at LB and have had for several seasons now, that's only on D.  

 

Offensively, LOL, I guess we're in for more 1 or 2 year $3M a season signees for the OL, so that once again Allen has absolutely no familiarity with any chemistry up front again.  

 

There is no strategic plan for building out the team.  It's all hodgepodge.  That's what we're seeing and that's where the frustration is coming in.  I mean I remember when they drafted Epenesa, who the scouts said was more of a run-defending DE, but our team, smarter by half, told us that he was a much better pass rusher than he showed in college.  LOL, well he's apparently a much better pass rusher than he's showing here in Buffalo too.  

 

People, fans, media, they see this.  They're not all stupid.  

 

A big part of what you’re saying is why I think we almost have to keep Edmunds. 2018 is likely our best overall draft by a wide margin. If we don’t re-sign Edmunds, we will have only kept 1 player (Allen) from our best draft class in last 5 offseason.

 

That to me is so unfathomable. I can barely wrap my head around it. You’re almost guaranteed to suck for years 6,7,8 when your 2,3,4, and 5th drafts are mediocre to bad. Then on top of that you somehow don’t have enough money to keep anybody from your first and best draft?

[Alphadawg7]

2 hours ago, folz said:

I constantly see posters say that Sean and Brandon have focused too much on the defensive side of the ball when it comes to drafting and free agency. This just is not true. But, of course, once something is believed, it is hard to get people to see differently. So, this idea just keeps getting bandied about.

 

The only thing that could be said/griped about is maybe that the Bills have spent too many first round picks on defense. But that's it. You can't even say too many premium (or Day 1 and Day 2 picks), as you will see below. The first round is the only place where you can say the Bills have gone defensive heavy, but people say it like it has been a rule across all drafts, all rounds, and every year of free agency (as a whole). 

 

Since 2017, the Bills have drafted 44 players: 21 on defense, 22 on offense, and 2 STers. So, overall, the Bills have drafted 1 more offensive player than defensive players over the last six years. Below is a breakdown by round:

 

Round 1: 5 on defense, 1 on offense (though we should note that another 1st round pick was used on Stefon Diggs, so technically 2 on offense)

Round 2: 2 on defense, 4 on offense

Round 3: 2 on defense, 4 on offense

Round 4: 1 on defense, 1 on offense

Round 5: 3 on defense, 5 on offense

Round 6: 5 on defense, 4 on offense, 2 STs

Round 7: 3 on defense, 3 on offense 

 

So, yes, 5 defensive players to 1/2 offensive players in round one. But rounds 1-3 combined, it's 9 defensive players to 9 offensive players. Rounds 1-5 combined, it's 13 defensive players to 15 offensive players.

 

And how about free agency? [It was hard to get exact FA numbers as some sites include rookie free agents that made the team and some did not, some included the Bills resigning their own low-tier free agents and some did not. I tried to focus on free agents coming from other teams to the Bills in a particular off-season...but by no means are these numbers definitive.]

 

But, to the best of my quick researching ability, since 2017, the Bills have brought in 33 defensive free agents, 47 offensive free agents, and 2 Special Teamers. 

[Special Teamers in my numbers are kicking specialists only, for players like Taiwan and Tyler M, they were listed as either offense or defense depending, despite really being STs]

 

So, since Sean McDermott arrived, the Bills have brought in (approx) 54 defensive players total, 69 offensive players total, and 4 Special Teamers total.

 

I'm guessing that this assumption of being defensive-heavy is coming from the disparity in the first round picks, and the Bills going heavy defensive line the last two years. But again, overall, the Bills have not over-focused on defense when you look at their full tenure, it has only been in regards to first round picks. And I'm sure it doesn't help the perception that those first round picks on defense (outside of Tre White), didn't come in as dominant players right away (Tremaine, Ed, Greg, Kaiir), if they had, I doubt anyone would be complaining that they are over-drafting defense. But, then again, when you are drafting in the bottom-half of round one, it is tough to get one of those guys that just comes in as a rookie and shines right away, so they have drafted a bit for potential (knowing that these players would need grooming time).

 

You can totally question the Bills draft/FA strategy or the individual players they are bringing in (I want more offensive line help too), but this idea that they only focus on defense is as the thread title states, a myth.

 

Go Bills!

 

 

 

 

 

Great post, and something I have been echoing for a while as well.  You will also find they also only refer to first round picks as "premium" picks but in any other thread on any other topic will refer to 2nd and 3rd picks as premium or high value too.  Especially in draft threads, trade threads, etc.  But when they want to insist on the team only focused on defense, suddenly 2nd and 3rd round picks have no value and only the first round picks matter.

 

They also will ignore that these same people wanted us to draft Oliver and also ignore the context of each draft on who was on the board, priorities for the team, etc.  When we took Groot, DE and pass rush was our biggest achilles heal on the team and he was their BPA on their board.  When we selected Elam, CB was the weakest position on the whole team.  It is not like they are making luxury picks with these first rounders.

 

2 hours ago, LABILLBACKER said:

Someone explain to OP that 1st round pick has substantially more allocation points than a 6th or 7th round pick.  The offensive players brought in from FA are dumpster dives.  This math doesn't work.  It's not just quantity,  it's quality from 1st round draft picks to bottom of the barrel FA pick ups.  

 

And you don't have to leave the first page of this thread to find someone already doing that.  Literally completely ignoring the heavy investment of 2nd and 3rd rounders into the offense compared to the defense and now focusing on comparing first round to 6th and 7th round picks instead to try and manipulate the info to support his opinion of its been defensive heavy approach.  

[PBF81]

7 minutes ago, LyndonvilleBill said:

Well, considering 12 out of the 14 you listed played quite a bit for us this past season,  I'd have to go with a 13-3 regular season record.🤔😉😁

 

Playoffs ... 

 

Edmunds:  0 Sacks, 0 QB Hits, 1 TFL 

Bernard:  Nada 

 

Ford wasn't even on the team, Brown didn't play well. 

 

Singletary 110 yards from scrimmage in both playoff games combined, 0 TDs 

Cook 52 rushing yards on 3 ypc, 1 rushing TD in both games 

Moss wasn't around 

 

Davis had one good game against Miami but did almost nothing against Cinci 

 

Knox 85 yards and 1 TD in both games combined 

 

Rousseau 0 sacks, 0 TFL, 1 QB Hit in both games combined 

Epenesa Nada 

 

Oliver 1 sack, 1 TFL, 3 QB Hits in the Miami game (Thompson), Nada in the Cinci game.  

Basham 1 sack, 1 TFL, 2 QB Hits in the Miami game (Thompson), Nada in the Cinci game 

Phillips was long gone 

 

That's what you're defending.  Meanwhile, Cinci's draft picks from 2018 - 2022 had great games against us.  I'm guessing that a bunch of Miami's draft picks from that same time frame did better overall than ours did.  

 

Either way, a couple of players had good games against Skylar Thompson.  No one else did at any time.  

 

[Don Otreply]

2 hours ago, Shaw66 said:

Well, I agree, and thanks for putting this together, but the first round is more important than any other round.   The defense would be just as good, and the offense markedly better, if Beane had found one or two offensive linemen in the first round.  

Very well put Shaw, wonderfully diplomatic if I do say so myself, 👍

[PBF81]

12 minutes ago, LABILLBACKER said:

If I'm Beane I'm firing half my scouting dept. It's brutal to see us swing and miss on so many draft picks these last 5 years.  And frankly most of our FA acquisitions haven't been earth shattering.  But even a moron knows you start by building a dominant OL around Josh.  In 5 years we've drafted 2 olineman in the first 3 rounds. Ford was a bust and Brown probably will be too. Maybe the true problem with the Bills organization is how they incentivize their scouts.

 

As to the OL, chemistry is also huge, and if you keep swapping our two or three OL-men each season it doesn't give your QB a chance to develop that chemistry that for example Kelly had with his OL back then.  For a GM to not understand that, ... SMH ... 

[Saint Doug]

5 picks vs 1/2 picks in Round 1 says the most to me. And I t’s interesting that the year they traded their 1st for Diggs, they still used their next pick available on a defensive player. This is still a clear pattern of draft strategy. Maybe they think offensive in 1st round picks are too risky or that McD believes he can coach-up any deficiencies a defensive 1st rounder may have. 
 

But this is all just an exercise in futility. It doesn’t matter where they are drafting offense vs defense if they are not hitting on these picks. And they aren’t. They need to get better identifying talent in all rounds. 

Edited February 24, 2023 by Saint Doug

[PBF81]

21 minutes ago, BADOLBILZ said:

And no........Stefon Diggs does not count as a first round pick.........he cost a first round pick+.......but he also cost about $15M aav so he was essentially a hedged bet between a draft pick and free agency.    It's like saying Rob Johnson or Drew Bledsoe were first round picks of the Bills...........an argument oft-used by Bills fans who didn't think the Bills should expend first round picks on QB prospects.   

 

That's exactly right.  Let's use that pick as a contrast.  Minny got Jefferson, who's better than Diggs, but let's just say that they're equal for the sake of discussion.  

 

They got Jefferson for 4 years on $15M.  OK, so they renegotiate after 3, it's still better than the $96M Diggs has for 4 years.  There's no comparison, so exactly, it's not at all the same.  It's throwing in the towel, admitting that you can't draft, and buying a top player at top dollar.  That's a far cry from getting comparable play on Jefferson's contract.  

[OldTimer1960]

1 hour ago, Mr. WEO said:

 

Epenesa

Epenesa has as many or more sacks than Marlon Davidson, Yetur Gross-Matos, K’Lavon Chaisson, Chase Young - ALL DEs drafted ahead of him in 2020.  Chase Young was the 3rd overall pick and Chaisson went 20th.  Epenesa was the 54th selection.

[PBF81]

35 minutes ago, Mango said:

A big part of what you’re saying is why I think we almost have to keep Edmunds. 2018 is likely our best overall draft by a wide margin. If we don’t re-sign Edmunds, we will have only kept 1 player (Allen) from our best draft class in last 5 offseason.

 

That to me is so unfathomable. I can barely wrap my head around it. You’re almost guaranteed to suck for years 6,7,8 when your 2,3,4, and 5th drafts are mediocre to bad. Then on top of that you somehow don’t have enough money to keep anybody from your first and best draft?

 

The reason why we don't have enough money to keep anyone from our earlier drafts is because we've had to purchase our talent via free agency.  You cannot simply pay top dollar for all your players.  But when you don't draft well you have no choice.  People are catching on.  

 

Part of why we have to keep Edmunds is because we've made no sincere effort to even stock ourselves with a 3rd starting LB.  Instead we're told that they're system only needs two.  OK, now they'll only have one, and I don't think that Edmunds is coming back under any circumstances, who'd want to play in our 4-2-5 system like that as a LB with skills and talent.  I wouldn't want to and in reading between the lines it seems as if he realizes that if he's going to achieve his goals in the NFL then it's going to be elsewhere with better coaching in a classic 4-3.  

 

But you hit on one of the primary reasons as to why it wouldn't surprise me to see us not win the division this year.  We now find ourselves in the position of absolutely having to draft a LB, or only having Milano as any kind of LB on the team that's of starting caliber.  Why?  Because Beane has neglected the position for four seasons.  We haven't had 3 starting caliber LBs since Lorax was on the team.  

 

But we really need OL-men, an OT in particular, and a top interior OL be nice too.  And even if we did draft a LB, I have no idea whether this is a weak or strong year for LBs, but if it's a weak one, then we'd likely have to reach.  Under any circumstances, I'm not sure that relying on a rookie LB on a team with only two starting caliber LBs, in a weird system (4-2-5, if that was even deliberate, which I'm skeptical of) hardly seems like the most odds-on approach for playing well.  

 

Since McBeane hadn't noticed, that lack of LBs is a huge reason why average RBs often tear us to shreds and why most teams outperform their average rushing production against us.  Our defensive stats are skewed by us shutting down poor rushing teams, but teams that can run the ball typically do so without much issue against us.  Cinci ripped us a new one in the playoffs.  Without Mostert Miami didn't even have a decent RB in the game.  Mixon had a great game against us.  Cinci put up 172 rushing yards on over 5 YPC.   

 

BTW, they're trying to make Edmunds do on D what Allen does on O, but Edmunds isn't quite that good.  I think he's better than he's shown here, but the system has held him back.  And after Edmunds walks, what if Milano gets hurt?  LOL  Then what.  

 

 

Edited February 25, 2023 by PBF81

[Mango]

47 minutes ago, PBF81 said:

 

The reason why we don't have enough money to keep anyone from our earlier drafts is because we've had to purchase our talent via free agency.  You cannot simply pay top dollar for all your players.  But when you don't draft well you have no choice.  People are catching on.  

 

Part of why we have to keep Edmunds is because we've made no sincere effort to even stock ourselves with a 3rd starting LB.  Instead we're told that they're system only needs two.  OK, now they'll only have one, and I don't think that Edmunds is coming back under any circumstances, who'd want to play in our 4-2-5 system like that as a LB with skills and talent.  I wouldn't want to and in reading between the lines it seems as if he realizes that if he's going to achieve his goals in the NFL then it's going to be elsewhere with better coaching in a classic 4-3.  

 

But you hit on one of the primary reasons as to why it wouldn't surprise me to see us not win the division this year.  We now find ourselves in the position of absolutely having to draft a LB, or only having Milano as any kind of LB on the team that's of starting caliber.  Why?  Because Beane has neglected the position for four seasons.  We haven't had 3 starting caliber LBs since Lorax was on the team.  

 

But we really need OL-men, an OT in particular, and a top interior OL be nice too.  And even if we did draft a LB, I have no idea whether this is a weak or strong year for LBs, but if it's a weak one, then we'd likely have to reach.  Under any circumstances, I'm not sure that relying on a rookie LB on a team with only two starting caliber LBs, in a weird system (4-2-5, if that was even deliberate, which I'm skeptical of) hardly seems like the most odds-on approach for playing well.  

 

Since McBeane hadn't noticed, that lack of LBs is a huge reason why average RBs often tear us to shreds and why most teams outperform their average rushing production against us.  Our defensive stats are skewed by us shutting down poor rushing teams, but teams that can run the ball typically do so without much issue against us.  Cinci ripped us a new one in the playoffs.  Without Mostert Miami didn't even have a decent RB in the game.  Mixon had a great game against us.  Cinci put up 172 rushing yards on over 5 YPC.   

 

BTW, they're trying to make Edmunds do on D what Allen does on O, but Edmunds isn't quite that good.  I think he's better than he's shown here, but the system has held him back.  And after Edmunds walks, what if Milano gets hurt?  LOL  Then what.  

 

 

If the McBeane doesn’t take any steps this offseason I can see Allen’s career going similar to Stafford, Rivers, and a couple others.

[warrior9]

4 hours ago, LABILLBACKER said:

Someone explain to OP that 1st round pick has substantially more allocation points than a 6th or 7th round pick.  The offensive players brought in from FA are dumpster dives.  This math doesn't work.  It's not just quantity,  it's quality from 1st round draft picks to bottom of the barrel FA pick ups.  

No that makes too much sense. 

 

But yes, it's an offensive league and we use a lot of high draft picks on defensive players under this regime... I dont think that can be debated. 

 

Sure, we can draft 4 WR's in rounds 4-7.... but how many are sticking? 

[Augie]

15 minutes ago, ScottLaw said:

Their defensive head coach is pulling the strings and they’ve already swung and missed on some high picks with the offensive line and WR.(Ford and Zay)… I agree. They are hesitant there because it’s what they know less of. 

 

I’m not arguing or trying to make a point, but both 2nd round picks were later traded for a 5th. I found that interesting, and Zay had 82 catches last year which I found surprising. 

 

What happened in the Zay Jones saga can stay a mystery as far as I’m concerned, but I hope the young man is doing well in all regards. 

[PBF81]

32 minutes ago, Mango said:

If the McBeane doesn’t take any steps this offseason I can see Allen’s career going similar to Stafford, Rivers, and a couple others.

 

Wow, that's pretty dire.  I can possibly see that though.  

 

I can't imagine that Pegula's going to allow this to continue like this much longer.  Terry's preoccupied, and he tends to want to be hands off, but he also strikes me as someone that once he gets pissed and resolved, watch out.  

[Mango]

1 minute ago, PBF81 said:

 

Wow, that's pretty dire.  I can possibly see that though.  

 

I can't imagine that Pegula's going to allow this to continue like this much longer.  Terry's preoccupied, and he tends to want to be hands off, but he also strikes me as someone that once he gets pissed and resolved, watch out.  

I get why you would “allow it”. Although a lot of times you just don’t have a choice.

 

When you get so close to a championship and the bar gets raised so high, emotions run hot. Everybody in an org is red lining I. Every way to make it happen. When you fall short it can be debilitating.
 

We saw it happen with the Sabres and Ruff. Any franchise would be lucky to have the run we had under Lindy and Darcy. 
 

It is why guys like Harbaugh and Tomlin are so impressive. It takes a remarkably talented leader to not lose a locker room over that period of time. Sometimes great coaches run their course in an organization. 
 

That said, I always come back to the Pegula  owned Sabres and how bad the Bills are capable of being under them. I am super frustrated with McBeane at the moment. Highly critical of the FO in particular. But I’m not sure I have the testicular fortitude to call for their head. 

[Meatloaf63]

5 hours ago, folz said:

I constantly see posters say that Sean and Brandon have focused too much on the defensive side of the ball when it comes to drafting and free agency. This just is not true. But, of course, once something is believed, it is hard to get people to see differently. So, this idea just keeps getting bandied about.

 

The only thing that could be said/griped about is maybe that the Bills have spent too many first round picks on defense. But that's it. You can't even say too many premium (or Day 1 and Day 2 picks), as you will see below. The first round is the only place where you can say the Bills have gone defensive heavy, but people say it like it has been a rule across all drafts, all rounds, and every year of free agency (as a whole). 

 

Since 2017, the Bills have drafted 44 players: 21 on defense, 22 on offense, and 2 STers. So, overall, the Bills have drafted 1 more offensive player than defensive players over the last six years. Below is a breakdown by round:

 

Round 1: 5 on defense, 1 on offense (though we should note that another 1st round pick was used on Stefon Diggs, so technically 2 on offense)

Round 2: 2 on defense, 4 on offense

Round 3: 2 on defense, 4 on offense

Round 4: 1 on defense, 1 on offense

Round 5: 3 on defense, 5 on offense

Round 6: 5 on defense, 4 on offense, 2 STs

Round 7: 3 on defense, 3 on offense 

 

So, yes, 5 defensive players to 1/2 offensive players in round one. But rounds 1-3 combined, it's 9 defensive players to 9 offensive players. Rounds 1-5 combined, it's 13 defensive players to 15 offensive players.

 

And how about free agency? [It was hard to get exact FA numbers as some sites include rookie free agents that made the team and some did not, some included the Bills resigning their own low-tier free agents and some did not. I tried to focus on free agents coming from other teams to the Bills in a particular off-season...but by no means are these numbers definitive.]

 

But, to the best of my quick researching ability, since 2017, the Bills have brought in 33 defensive free agents, 47 offensive free agents, and 2 Special Teamers. 

[Special Teamers in my numbers are kicking specialists only, for players like Taiwan and Tyler M, they were listed as either offense or defense depending, despite really being STs]

 

So, since Sean McDermott arrived, the Bills have brought in (approx) 54 defensive players total, 69 offensive players total, and 4 Special Teamers total.

 

I'm guessing that this assumption of being defensive-heavy is coming from the disparity in the first round picks, and the Bills going heavy defensive line the last two years. But again, overall, the Bills have not over-focused on defense when you look at their full tenure, it has only been in regards to first round picks. And I'm sure it doesn't help the perception that those first round picks on defense (outside of Tre White), didn't come in as dominant players right away (Tremaine, Ed, Greg, Kaiir), if they had, I doubt anyone would be complaining that they are over-drafting defense. But, then again, when you are drafting in the bottom-half of round one, it is tough to get one of those guys that just comes in as a rookie and shines right away, so they have drafted a bit for potential (knowing that these players would need grooming time).

 

You can totally question the Bills draft/FA strategy or the individual players they are bringing in (I want more offensive line help too), but this idea that they only focus on defense is as the thread title states, a myth.

 

Go Bills!

 

 

 

 

Nope sorry round one is where the difference makers are found, the rest is just noise…

[Ed_Formerly_of_Roch]

I think the FA numbers are somewhat misleading in that they are signing many of these guys particularly linemen to one year deals.  So that inflates the number of players brought in while defensive players are signed and resigned to more long term bigger deals, so less total number of them.

 

As also pointed out, you can't ignore the value of the picks round 1 vs round 7.

 

[Bill from NYC]

2 hours ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

The draft value of a 1st round pick is much, much higher than any subsequent rounds.    It's value essentially trumps the value of the rest of your picks.

 

So your argument is like saying the Bills emphasize offense as much as defense contractually because they have the same amount of players under contract on both sides of the ball on opening day.

 

It's the value of the investment.

 

And no........Stefon Diggs does not count as a first round pick.........he cost a first round pick+.......but he also cost about $15M aav so he was essentially a hedged bet between a draft pick and free agency.    It's like saying Rob Johnson or Drew Bledsoe were first round picks of the Bills...........an argument oft-used by Bills fans who didn't think the Bills should expend first round picks on QB prospects.   

 

And I mean your work isn't even close to accurate.........the Bills traded picks to move up for Josh Allen that you didn't account for..........they traded the Sammy Watkins pick in round 2 to move up for Tremaine Edmunds.........they traded their own #3 for Kelvin Benjamin...........it's not a very thorough analysis.

 

 

Excellent, 100% true post.