FA and draft needs? Shoot your shot.

[PBF81]

3 hours ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

I have some ideas why.

 

Because they value Dawkins, Bates and Brown long term.......and Mitch Morse is their most consistent OL.   And at center Bates figures to inherit that role from Morse in 2024 and is as good of an athlete as any C in the draft and only 2 years older than John Michael Schmitz despite going into year 5 in the NFL.

 

If you are drafting OL early they need to be immediate starters..........if only because they need the reps to develop...........and you need to anticipate that they are likely to suck and get your QB hit a lot........like early first rounder and super guard prospect Kenyon Green did last year allowing 8 sacks as a rookie.

 

So 3 of them?    Nah.

 

I expect a combined effort in UFA and the draft.........and I'm not expecting miracles from who they draft.

 

The guys that need to step up are Brown and Doyle........year 3 is when you expect OL to really start paying dividends. 

 

Well, OK, IMO that's putting quite a bit of faith in the unproven, but I see your point.  

 

Morse, what, 6 concussions now and old for a C.  OK, so he slides to G then?  Morse didn't seem to have had a great year, at least not from what I saw.  

 

Bates, I hear a lot of talk but again, I'm not seeing even an average G here.  Maybe he'll become that above-average G then.  

 

Brown, he's gonna have to take a huge step up in his third season this year to impress people.  

 

Our OL was not good this year, and those three were the core of the OL and started alongside Dawkins who seems to have played pretty well, but he's only signed for two more seasons.  

 

We'll see.  If I were GM though, two of my picks in rounds 1-3, including the 1st round, would be OT and C/G.  

[Trust The Process]

My Free Agency wish list based on Pay Cuts, Released Players, and Contract Restructures, which frees up enough cap space to sign free agents, and re-sign some of our own. 
 

Currently, we’re 20.5M over the cap, and we need around 10M needs to be saved for our 2023 Draft Class. 

RELEASED

 

Taron Johnson: Cap Hit of 9.2 million in 2023 with a Dead Cap Hit of 5M and a Cap Savings of 4.2M if released. You simply don’t pay that kind of money to a Slot CB. 
 

Siran Neal: Cap Hit of 3.3M with a Dead Cap Hit of 1.1M and a Cap Savings of 2.2M. Neal is a quality special teamer, but just another guy in the secondary. Having said that, he’s not worth the money, and not worth a roster spot

 

Tim Settle: Cap Hit of 5M with a Dead Cap Hit of 2.7M and a Cap Savings of 2.3M. Going into 2022, we had high expectations of Tim Settle, but never materialized. Settle ended up with only 1 sack this season which is unacceptable and not a good return on our investment. 
 

Isaiah McKenzie: Cap Hit of 2.9M with a Dead Cap Hit of 300K and a Cap Savings of 2.6M if released. It’s time to move on from McKenzie. I can replace him with someone who gets paid similar type of money who’s younger with more upside. 
 

Mitch Morse: Cap Hit of 11.2M with a Dead Cap Hit of 5M and a Cap Savings of 6.2M if released. There’s several big problems with Morse. The man suffered 6 concussions in his career that we know of, and he’s not a good run blocker. It’s time to move on, clear his big contract off the books, and find an upgrade. 

*RELEASED CAP SAVINGS: 17.5M

 

PAY CUT

 

Nyheim Hines: Cap Hit of 4.8M with a Dead Cap of 0 and a Cap Savings of 4.8M if released. I would love to retain Hines as a valuable asset for Special Teams and depth at RB but not at 4.8M. No team will pay Hines 4.8M, especially since this years Free Agent and Draft class at RB is strong. I’d offer Hines 3M.
 

*PAY CUT CAP SAVINGS: 1.8M 

RESTRUCTURED CONTRACTS

 

Josh Allen: This restructure was essentially bound to happen after Allen signed his well-deserved, monster extension in the summer of 2021. The simple restructuring will create 21.5M in Cap Space. 
 

Dion Dawkins: Current Cap Hit of 8.9M with a Potential Cap Savings of 6.3M
 

Tre White: Current Cap Hit of 8.6M with a Potential Cap Savings of 6.1M 
 

*RESTRUCTURED CAP SAVINGS: 33M
 

SALARY CAP SUMMARY: Freed up 52.3M in Cap Space between Releases, Pay Cuts, and Contract Restructures, minus 20.5M Over The Cap, minus 10M for 2023 Draft Class equals approximately 21.8M in Cap Space. 

FREE AGENCY
 

S Andrew Wingard: 3M

(Jordan Poyer’s replacement)

 

Andrew Wingard was a full time safety in Jacksonville in 2021 and emerged as a solid all-around player. In 2022, he was relegated to a reserve/backup role, seeing only 223 snaps. A truly versatile playmaker. Wingard is big and aggressive enough to make plays near the line but was a ballhawk in college as a free safety, when he was teammates with Allen at Wyoming. He feels like the type of lower-priced free agent with upside the Bills would love to develop in a starter role. 

 

DE Justin Houston: 5.3M (Spotrac)

(Shaq Lawson’s replacement)

 

Justin Houston was forced to sign a modest one-year deal with Baltimore and completely outplayed his contract from day one even as a rotational pass-rush specialist with just 400 snaps on the season. Houston’s 18.4% pass-rush win rate and 14.6% pressure percentage were both top-25 marks among edge defenders, and he managed to add 9.5 sacks to his total, which brings him to 111.5 for his career, a top-40 mark all time. For a team looking for a menace on passing downs, Houston is still that guy entering his age-34 season. 

 

RB D’Onta Foreman: 3.4M (Spotrac) 

(Devin Singletary’s replacement)

 

D’Onta Foreman is the featured power RB we so desperately need who will not only upgrade the running game but will make life a lot easier on Allen’s health in short yardage situations to convert first downs, and TD’s in the red zone. Foreman is 6ft and 235 lbs, and runs the 40 yard dash in 4.45 seconds, and is also a perfect compliment to James Cook. 

WR Odell Beckham: 5M BASE SALARY PLUS INCENTIVES

(Gabe Davis and Odell Beckham split playing time) 
 

Odell Beckham signed a one-year $4.25 million contract with the Rams in 2021. I’d give Odell Beckham an incentive to make more money and re-build his market value playing in Buffalo with Josh Allen. 

 

RG Will Hernandez: 4M (Spotrac) 

 

Hernandez earned a career-high 79.1 pass-blocking grade in 2022, which ranked tied for eighth among guards. His 3.0% pressure rate allowed ranked 13th at the position, and he held up on true pass sets, as well, ranking top 15 in both metrics. He’s a bit more limited as a run blocker, failing to reach a season-long grade of at least 65.0 over his five-year career, but his above-average pass protection should make him an intriguing target for a handful of clubs.

RESTRICTED FREE AGENTS

 

Dane Jackson: 2.6M Original Round Tender

 

RE-SIGNED 

 

Jordan Phillips: 3M

Ike Boettger: 1.2M

David Quissenberry: 1.5M

Taiwan Jones: 1.1M

Sam Martin: 2M

 

DID NOT RE-SIGN

 

Tremaine Edmunds 

Shaq Lawson

Jordan Poyer 

Joquan Johnson

Devin Singletary 

Roger Saffold

Bobby Hart

Greg Van Roten 

DRAFT

 

We currently have 21 UFA’s and 3 RFA’s which is a subtotal of 24 players, which means we have a lot of holes to fill with  limited cap space. I’d like to trade down at least once, preferably our 1st Round pick for near the top of the 2nd round and an additional pick. 

 

2A: LG O’Cyrus Torrence to replace Rodger Saffold 

2B. WR Tank Dell to replace Isaiah McKenzie 

3. LB to replace Tremaine Edmunds 

4. CENTER to backup Ryan Bates 

5. SLOT CB to replace Taron Johnson 

6. SAFETY for depth 

* Extra Pick in Trade Down: DL for depth 

 

 

PLAN FOR THE OFFENSE

LT: Dion Dawkins is the starting LT
 

LG:  O’Cyrus Torrence is the starting LG, and Ike Boettger is his backup. 

 

CENTER: Release Mitch Morse, and replace him with Ryan Bates. Draft a Center who can backup Bates. 

RG: Will Hernandez is the starting RG

 

RT: Spencer, Johnson, and David Quissenberry compete for starting RT. 
 

RB: D’Onta Foreman is the starting running back, and his primary back up is James Cook, with Nyheim Hines as the third back. 
 

WR1: Stefon Diggs and his backup is Odell Beckham

 

WR2: Gabriel Davis and Odell Beckham

 

SLOT RECEIVER: Khalil Shakir and Tank Dell 

 

PLAN FOR THE DEFENSE

 

DE: Justin, Houston replaces Shaq Lawson

 

ILB: Drafted Rookie replaces Tremaine Edmunds

 

SLOT CB: Christian Benford and Drafted Rookie to replace Taron Johnson

 

FREE SAFETY: Andrew Wingard and Christian Benford 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Edited February 7, 2023 by Trust The Process

[ROCBillsBeliever]

3 hours ago, TheyCallMeAndy said:

Can you imagine Brown in the eligible OL blocking TE role this year? (Assuming we sign a vet RT and let Brown take a step back). 

 

I feel like with his athletic profile, sheer height advantage, and being a former TE, he would be a beast!

[nosejob]

4 hours ago, Airseven said:

The problem with not wanting to invest more resources into the DL is that they need to invest more resources into the DL.

 

Miller will miss at least half the season. That leaves Rousseau. We know Epenesa and Basham are useless and Lawson is UFA. Oliver and Jones are a good enough starting combo, but Phillips is UFA and Settle struggled despite his supposed untapped upside (I do like Bryant). 

I get tired of hearing this. AJ is fast and plays limited snaps. He hits when he gets there and took Tua out. Basham can still get better and if we had a decent D.C.that could run some stunts and stick him inside once in a while, we'd probably get more out of him. Same with Shaq. Lorax's last year here we put him inside and he made a play every time.  D. Ryans was/is a master of that. Look at some Niners Dline breakdowns.

 

Lawson had the best year of his career, IMO. Kyle Williams didn't become Kyle Williams until like yr. 5 and played next to Dareus. J. Phillips is our best DT if he could stay healthy and pairs best with Ed. Settle was less than I had hoped. Jones is ok. All that being said, I'd sign Oliver to a team friendly contract then get Payne or the guy from Philly and draft a monster somewhere, somehow. Let things shake out and thin the herd after.

 

I think we could get/or could of got a lot more out of these guys with better scheming. Being stubborn and rushing four straight away against 5 linemen , a TE and a back is straight up stupidity. Do they not assess teams game plans/strengths and weaknesses on a weekly basis? That Cincy games proves not. Ok, I think I'm bleeding into another thread.

[JakeFrommStateFarm]

This is what I believe Beane will do not what I want

 

1. EDGE - pass rush is terrible without Miller, he's aging and wont be healthy the whole season_
2. Safety - Poyer will leave
3. LB - Edmunds will leave as we wont be able to match 
4. Guard
5. Guard/Tackle - Need a nice swing tackle/guard
6. WR
7. Traded away

[Success]

53 minutes ago, Trust The Process said:

My Free Agency wish list based on Pay Cuts, Released Players, and Contract Restructures, which frees up enough cap space to sign free agents, and re-sign some of our own. 
 

Currently, we’re 20.5M over the cap, and we need around 10M needs to be saved for our 2023 Draft Class. 

RELEASED

 

Taron Johnson: Cap Hit of 9.2 million in 2023 with a Dead Cap Hit of 5M and a Cap Savings of 4.2M if released. You simply don’t pay that kind of money to a Slot CB. 
 

Siran Neal: Cap Hit of 3.3M with a Dead Cap Hit of 1.1M and a Cap Savings of 2.2M. Neal is a quality special teamer, but just another guy in the secondary. Having said that, he’s not worth the money, and not worth a roster spot

 

Tim Settle: Cap Hit of 5M with a Dead Cap Hit of 2.7M and a Cap Savings of 2.3M. Going into 2022, we had high expectations of Tim Settle, but never materialized. Settle ended up with only 1 sack this season which is unacceptable and not a good return on our investment. 
 

Isaiah McKenzie: Cap Hit of 2.9M with a Dead Cap Hit of 300K and a Cap Savings of 2.6M if released. It’s time to move on from McKenzie. I can replace him with someone who gets paid similar type of money who’s younger with more upside. 
 

Mitch Morse: Cap Hit of 11.2M with a Dead Cap Hit of 5M and a Cap Savings of 6.2M if released. There’s several big problems with Morse. The man suffered 6 concussions in his career that we know of, and he’s not a good run blocker. It’s time to move on, clear his big contract off the books, and find an upgrade. 

*RELEASED CAP SAVINGS: 17.5M

 

PAY CUT

 

Nyheim Hines: Cap Hit of 4.8M with a Dead Cap of 0 and a Cap Savings of 4.8M if released. I would love to retain Hines as a valuable asset for Special Teams and depth at RB but not at 4.8M. No team will pay Hines 4.8M, especially since this years Free Agent and Draft class at RB is strong. I’d offer Hines 3M.
 

*PAY CUT CAP SAVINGS: 1.8M 

RESTRUCTURED CONTRACTS

 

Josh Allen: This restructure was essentially bound to happen after Allen signed his well-deserved, monster extension in the summer of 2021. The simple restructuring will create 21.5M in Cap Space. 
 

Dion Dawkins: Current Cap Hit of 8.9M with a Potential Cap Savings of 6.3M
 

Tre White: Current Cap Hit of 8.6M with a Potential Cap Savings of 6.1M 
 

*RESTRUCTURED CAP SAVINGS: 33M
 

SALARY CAP SUMMARY: Freed up 52.3M in Cap Space between Releases, Pay Cuts, and Contract Restructures, minus 20.5M Over The Cap, minus 10M for 2023 Draft Class equals approximately 21.8M in Cap Space. 

FREE AGENCY
 

S Andrew Wingard: 3M

(Jordan Poyer’s replacement)

 

Wingard was a full time safety in Jacksonville in 2021 and emerged as a solid all-around player. In 2022, he was relegated to a reserve/backup role, seeing only 223 snaps. A truly versatile playmaker. Wingard is big and aggressive enough to make plays near the line but was a ballhawk in college as a free safety, when he was teammates with Allen at Wyoming. He feels like the type of lower-priced free agent with upside the Bills would love to develop in a starter role. 

 

DE Justin Houston: 5.3M (Spotrac)

(Shaq Lawson’s replacement)

 

Justin Houston was forced to sign a modest one-year deal with Baltimore and completely outplayed his contract from day one even as a rotational pass-rush specialist with just 400 snaps on the season. Houston’s 18.4% pass-rush win rate and 14.6% pressure percentage were both top-25 marks among edge defenders, and he managed to add 9.5 sacks to his total, which brings him to 111.5 for his career, a top-40 mark all time. For a team looking for a menace on passing downs, Houston is still that guy entering his age-34 season. 

 

RB D’Onta Foreman: 3.4M (Spotrac) 

Devin Singletary’s replacement

 

D’Onta Foreman is the featured power RB we so desperately need who will not only upgrade the running game but will make life a lot easier on Allen’s health in short yardage situations to convert first downs, and TD’s in the red zone. Foreman is 6ft and 235 lbs, and runs the 40 yard dash in 4.45 seconds, and is also a perfect compliment to James Cook. 

 

WR Parris Campbell: 2.5M (Spotrac) 

 

Paris Campbell is young, has upside, and a perfect compliment to Khalil Shakir’s as a Slot Receiver. Paris is also 6ft and 208lbs with 4.31 forty yard dash wheels. He played more games in 2022 (17) than he did in his first three seasons combined (15). Campbell set career highs in all the major categories despite playing with a merry-go-round of quarterbacks in Indianapolis. Campbell has upside. Nyheim Hines, who played with Campbell the past four years before arriving in Buffalo this year in a trade, could also help recruit him.
 

RG Will Hernandez: 4M (Spotrac) 

 

Hernandez earned a career-high 79.1 pass-blocking grade in 2022, which ranked tied for eighth among guards. His 3.0% pressure rate allowed ranked 13th at the position, and he held up on true pass sets, as well, ranking top 15 in both metrics. He’s a bit more limited as a run blocker, failing to reach a season-long grade of at least 65.0 over his five-year career, but his above-average pass protection should make him an intriguing target for a handful of clubs.

RESTRICTED FREE AGENTS

 

Dane Jackson: 2.6M Original Round Tender

 

RE-SIGNED 

 

Jordan Phillips: 3M

Ike Boettger: 1.2M

David Quissenberry: 1.5M

Taiwan Jones: 1.1M

Sam Martin: 2M

DRAFT

 

LG

CENTER 
WR

SAFETY

LB

DL
 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

This is fantastic.  As with anything like this (mostly, mock drafts), it probably won't play out this way specifically - but it shows where & how the team can create a lot of cap space, and how they might prioritize.

 

It's hard to see losing Johnson, though you make a good point on compensation against his position.  I could see the other releases happening.  The draft priorities you listed are spot on; I wouldn't be surprised if their 1st pick was a WR, but I'd expect center & guard right after that.

 

[ControllerOfPlanetX]

I am trying to figure out how we can be over the cap…and still have so many needs..

OL, WR, RB, S, and LB if Edmunds walks…

[<bills4life>]

1 hour ago, Trust The Process said:

My Free Agency wish list based on Pay Cuts, Released Players, and Contract Restructures, which frees up enough cap space to sign free agents, and re-sign some of our own. 
 

Currently, we’re 20.5M over the cap, and we need around 10M needs to be saved for our 2023 Draft Class. 

RELEASED

 

Taron Johnson: Cap Hit of 9.2 million in 2023 with a Dead Cap Hit of 5M and a Cap Savings of 4.2M if released. You simply don’t pay that kind of money to a Slot CB. 
 

Siran Neal: Cap Hit of 3.3M with a Dead Cap Hit of 1.1M and a Cap Savings of 2.2M. Neal is a quality special teamer, but just another guy in the secondary. Having said that, he’s not worth the money, and not worth a roster spot

 

Tim Settle: Cap Hit of 5M with a Dead Cap Hit of 2.7M and a Cap Savings of 2.3M. Going into 2022, we had high expectations of Tim Settle, but never materialized. Settle ended up with only 1 sack this season which is unacceptable and not a good return on our investment. 
 

Isaiah McKenzie: Cap Hit of 2.9M with a Dead Cap Hit of 300K and a Cap Savings of 2.6M if released. It’s time to move on from McKenzie. I can replace him with someone who gets paid similar type of money who’s younger with more upside. 
 

Mitch Morse: Cap Hit of 11.2M with a Dead Cap Hit of 5M and a Cap Savings of 6.2M if released. There’s several big problems with Morse. The man suffered 6 concussions in his career that we know of, and he’s not a good run blocker. It’s time to move on, clear his big contract off the books, and find an upgrade. 

*RELEASED CAP SAVINGS: 17.5M

 

PAY CUT

 

Nyheim Hines: Cap Hit of 4.8M with a Dead Cap of 0 and a Cap Savings of 4.8M if released. I would love to retain Hines as a valuable asset for Special Teams and depth at RB but not at 4.8M. No team will pay Hines 4.8M, especially since this years Free Agent and Draft class at RB is strong. I’d offer Hines 3M.
 

*PAY CUT CAP SAVINGS: 1.8M 

RESTRUCTURED CONTRACTS

 

Josh Allen: This restructure was essentially bound to happen after Allen signed his well-deserved, monster extension in the summer of 2021. The simple restructuring will create 21.5M in Cap Space. 
 

Dion Dawkins: Current Cap Hit of 8.9M with a Potential Cap Savings of 6.3M
 

Tre White: Current Cap Hit of 8.6M with a Potential Cap Savings of 6.1M 
 

*RESTRUCTURED CAP SAVINGS: 33M
 

SALARY CAP SUMMARY: Freed up 52.3M in Cap Space between Releases, Pay Cuts, and Contract Restructures, minus 20.5M Over The Cap, minus 10M for 2023 Draft Class equals approximately 21.8M in Cap Space. 

FREE AGENCY
 

S Andrew Wingard: 3M

(Jordan Poyer’s replacement)

 

Wingard was a full time safety in Jacksonville in 2021 and emerged as a solid all-around player. In 2022, he was relegated to a reserve/backup role, seeing only 223 snaps. A truly versatile playmaker. Wingard is big and aggressive enough to make plays near the line but was a ballhawk in college as a free safety, when he was teammates with Allen at Wyoming. He feels like the type of lower-priced free agent with upside the Bills would love to develop in a starter role. 

 

DE Justin Houston: 5.3M (Spotrac)

(Shaq Lawson’s replacement)

 

Justin Houston was forced to sign a modest one-year deal with Baltimore and completely outplayed his contract from day one even as a rotational pass-rush specialist with just 400 snaps on the season. Houston’s 18.4% pass-rush win rate and 14.6% pressure percentage were both top-25 marks among edge defenders, and he managed to add 9.5 sacks to his total, which brings him to 111.5 for his career, a top-40 mark all time. For a team looking for a menace on passing downs, Houston is still that guy entering his age-34 season. 

 

RB D’Onta Foreman: 3.4M (Spotrac) 

Devin Singletary’s replacement

 

D’Onta Foreman is the featured power RB we so desperately need who will not only upgrade the running game but will make life a lot easier on Allen’s health in short yardage situations to convert first downs, and TD’s in the red zone. Foreman is 6ft and 235 lbs, and runs the 40 yard dash in 4.45 seconds, and is also a perfect compliment to James Cook. 

 

WR Parris Campbell: 2.5M (Spotrac) 

 

Paris Campbell is young, has upside, and a perfect compliment to Khalil Shakir’s as a Slot Receiver. Paris is also 6ft and 208lbs with 4.31 forty yard dash wheels. He played more games in 2022 (17) than he did in his first three seasons combined (15). Campbell set career highs in all the major categories despite playing with a merry-go-round of quarterbacks in Indianapolis. Campbell has upside. Nyheim Hines, who played with Campbell the past four years before arriving in Buffalo this year in a trade, could also help recruit him.
 

RG Will Hernandez: 4M (Spotrac) 

 

Hernandez earned a career-high 79.1 pass-blocking grade in 2022, which ranked tied for eighth among guards. His 3.0% pressure rate allowed ranked 13th at the position, and he held up on true pass sets, as well, ranking top 15 in both metrics. He’s a bit more limited as a run blocker, failing to reach a season-long grade of at least 65.0 over his five-year career, but his above-average pass protection should make him an intriguing target for a handful of clubs.

RESTRICTED FREE AGENTS

 

Dane Jackson: 2.6M Original Round Tender

 

RE-SIGNED 

 

Jordan Phillips: 3M

Ike Boettger: 1.2M

David Quissenberry: 1.5M

Taiwan Jones: 1.1M

Sam Martin: 2M

DRAFT

 

LG

CENTER 
WR

SAFETY

LB

DL
 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

What did we do with edmunds?  😂. I’m curious.

[newcam2012]

1 hour ago, Trust The Process said:

My Free Agency wish list based on Pay Cuts, Released Players, and Contract Restructures, which frees up enough cap space to sign free agents, and re-sign some of our own. 
 

Currently, we’re 20.5M over the cap, and we need around 10M needs to be saved for our 2023 Draft Class. 

RELEASED

 

Taron Johnson: Cap Hit of 9.2 million in 2023 with a Dead Cap Hit of 5M and a Cap Savings of 4.2M if released. You simply don’t pay that kind of money to a Slot CB. 
 

Siran Neal: Cap Hit of 3.3M with a Dead Cap Hit of 1.1M and a Cap Savings of 2.2M. Neal is a quality special teamer, but just another guy in the secondary. Having said that, he’s not worth the money, and not worth a roster spot

 

Tim Settle: Cap Hit of 5M with a Dead Cap Hit of 2.7M and a Cap Savings of 2.3M. Going into 2022, we had high expectations of Tim Settle, but never materialized. Settle ended up with only 1 sack this season which is unacceptable and not a good return on our investment. 
 

Isaiah McKenzie: Cap Hit of 2.9M with a Dead Cap Hit of 300K and a Cap Savings of 2.6M if released. It’s time to move on from McKenzie. I can replace him with someone who gets paid similar type of money who’s younger with more upside. 
 

Mitch Morse: Cap Hit of 11.2M with a Dead Cap Hit of 5M and a Cap Savings of 6.2M if released. There’s several big problems with Morse. The man suffered 6 concussions in his career that we know of, and he’s not a good run blocker. It’s time to move on, clear his big contract off the books, and find an upgrade. 

*RELEASED CAP SAVINGS: 17.5M

 

PAY CUT

 

Nyheim Hines: Cap Hit of 4.8M with a Dead Cap of 0 and a Cap Savings of 4.8M if released. I would love to retain Hines as a valuable asset for Special Teams and depth at RB but not at 4.8M. No team will pay Hines 4.8M, especially since this years Free Agent and Draft class at RB is strong. I’d offer Hines 3M.
 

*PAY CUT CAP SAVINGS: 1.8M 

RESTRUCTURED CONTRACTS

 

Josh Allen: This restructure was essentially bound to happen after Allen signed his well-deserved, monster extension in the summer of 2021. The simple restructuring will create 21.5M in Cap Space. 
 

Dion Dawkins: Current Cap Hit of 8.9M with a Potential Cap Savings of 6.3M
 

Tre White: Current Cap Hit of 8.6M with a Potential Cap Savings of 6.1M 
 

*RESTRUCTURED CAP SAVINGS: 33M
 

SALARY CAP SUMMARY: Freed up 52.3M in Cap Space between Releases, Pay Cuts, and Contract Restructures, minus 20.5M Over The Cap, minus 10M for 2023 Draft Class equals approximately 21.8M in Cap Space. 

FREE AGENCY
 

S Andrew Wingard: 3M

(Jordan Poyer’s replacement)

 

Wingard was a full time safety in Jacksonville in 2021 and emerged as a solid all-around player. In 2022, he was relegated to a reserve/backup role, seeing only 223 snaps. A truly versatile playmaker. Wingard is big and aggressive enough to make plays near the line but was a ballhawk in college as a free safety, when he was teammates with Allen at Wyoming. He feels like the type of lower-priced free agent with upside the Bills would love to develop in a starter role. 

 

DE Justin Houston: 5.3M (Spotrac)

(Shaq Lawson’s replacement)

 

Justin Houston was forced to sign a modest one-year deal with Baltimore and completely outplayed his contract from day one even as a rotational pass-rush specialist with just 400 snaps on the season. Houston’s 18.4% pass-rush win rate and 14.6% pressure percentage were both top-25 marks among edge defenders, and he managed to add 9.5 sacks to his total, which brings him to 111.5 for his career, a top-40 mark all time. For a team looking for a menace on passing downs, Houston is still that guy entering his age-34 season. 

 

RB D’Onta Foreman: 3.4M (Spotrac) 

Devin Singletary’s replacement

 

D’Onta Foreman is the featured power RB we so desperately need who will not only upgrade the running game but will make life a lot easier on Allen’s health in short yardage situations to convert first downs, and TD’s in the red zone. Foreman is 6ft and 235 lbs, and runs the 40 yard dash in 4.45 seconds, and is also a perfect compliment to James Cook. 

 

WR Parris Campbell: 2.5M (Spotrac) 

 

Paris Campbell is young, has upside, and a perfect compliment to Khalil Shakir’s as a Slot Receiver. Paris is also 6ft and 208lbs with 4.31 forty yard dash wheels. He played more games in 2022 (17) than he did in his first three seasons combined (15). Campbell set career highs in all the major categories despite playing with a merry-go-round of quarterbacks in Indianapolis. Campbell has upside. Nyheim Hines, who played with Campbell the past four years before arriving in Buffalo this year in a trade, could also help recruit him.
 

RG Will Hernandez: 4M (Spotrac) 

 

Hernandez earned a career-high 79.1 pass-blocking grade in 2022, which ranked tied for eighth among guards. His 3.0% pressure rate allowed ranked 13th at the position, and he held up on true pass sets, as well, ranking top 15 in both metrics. He’s a bit more limited as a run blocker, failing to reach a season-long grade of at least 65.0 over his five-year career, but his above-average pass protection should make him an intriguing target for a handful of clubs.

RESTRICTED FREE AGENTS

 

Dane Jackson: 2.6M Original Round Tender

 

RE-SIGNED 

 

Jordan Phillips: 3M

Ike Boettger: 1.2M

David Quissenberry: 1.5M

Taiwan Jones: 1.1M

Sam Martin: 2M

DRAFT

 

LG

CENTER 
WR

SAFETY

LB

DL
 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Very impressive post. In depth, integrated, conclusive, and analytic. 

 

Really appreciate such knowledgeable posts like this. 

 

👍👍👍👍👍👍👍👍👍👍👍

[Logic]

WR Bryant Johnson

 

DT Darwin Walker

 

TE Zach Ertz

 

Get 'er done, Beane.

[BuffaloRebound]

15 minutes ago, ControllerOfPlanetX said:

I am trying to figure out how we can be over the cap…and still have so many needs..

OL, WR, RB, S, and LB if Edmunds walks…

Because we give a lot of good, not great players rich contracts.  Look at the Chiefs.  They pay Mahomes, Kelsay, a few elite OLinemen, Jones, and Clark.  Everybody else is on rookie contracts or bargain free agents.  They tie up their money in elite players. 

When you dig into our current situation, the spending on defense is out of control.  And on top of that, we still use most of our premier draft picks on the defensive side of the ball.  With the exception of Dane Jackson and Lawson this year, you either make close to $10m+ per year or your a 1st or 2nd round pick on your rookie deal if you saw the field regularly on this defense.  

Edited February 7, 2023 by BuffaloRebound

[Airseven]

Re-structure Allen, possibly White. Release Morse for $6M savings.

 

Edmunds receives transition tag. Dodson, Jackson, and Lewis receive qualifying offers. All UFAs can walk or re-sign on the cheap - not worth discussing.

 

Poyer and Singletary are gone. 

 

Free agency should target Edge, S, and RB during the second wave.

 

Draft should prioritize offense (trade down in R2 would be ideal):

R1 - IOL/WR

R2 - WR/IOL

R3 - OT/DT

R4 - DT/OT

R5 - IOL/TE

R6 - TE/IOL

Edited February 7, 2023 by Airseven

[Pete]

10 hours ago, NastyNateSoldiers said:

 G - Ben Powers 4yrs 40 mil

RB- Saquon Barkley 4yrs 50mil 

WR- Darius Slayton 2yrs 12mil 

SS - Chauncey Gardner Johnson 4yrs 40mil 

 

i know we have cap issues but we can open some space with turning cash to bonuses for Allen, Dawkins , Tre & Diggs . We can also sign these guys with little impact to the 2023 cap . The rest of the roster can be filled with the draft and dust settle free agents. 

You had me at Ben Powers and Saquon 

[hondo in seattle]

Interior OL (2x), OT, WR, CB, Safety (if Poyer leaves), RB (if Motor leaves), LB (if Edmunds leaves), DE.

 

There are too many holes to fill.  Sadly, when I look into the Swami's crystal ball, I don't see a SB run this upcoming season.  

 

Still, I'm hoping Beane finds some forgotten treasures in the bargain bin.   He'll stay quiet at the beginning of free agency when the market is hot.  Then see who's still available when the market cools and there are good values to be found.

 

 

Edited February 7, 2023 by hondo in seattle

[frostbitmic]

1.  OL - Best Offensive Lineman available C/G or T

2. WR - Rashee Rice or either of the Tennessee receivers

3. OL - Whatever we take in the 1st take the other in the 2nd

4. Safety - Even if Benford moves to Safety, still need more

5. LB - This position goes higher if they let Edmunds move on. If they bring Edmunds back, A bruising RB would fit nice here

6. QB - One more year of paying a backup 6+ million a year, get a young guy on a rookie contract and let him learn as the #3

 

Protect Josh ... Get Josh more weapons ... Burn the passive defense part of the playbook

 

 

[Straight Hucklebuck]

2 hours ago, ControllerOfPlanetX said:

I am trying to figure out how we can be over the cap…and still have so many needs..

OL, WR, RB, S, and LB if Edmunds walks…

Bad drafting

[Pine Barrens Mafia]

18 hours ago, Mark Vader said:

My wish list.

 

Free Agency:

OL Issac Seamolu

OL Dalton Risner

WR DJ Chark

RB Samaje Perine

 

I don't think signing these players is that difficult to do and will not hurt our salary cap.

 

Draft:

S Antonio Johnson or Jordan Battle

OL John Michael Schmitz or Olusegun Oluwatimi & Steve Avila or Andrew Vorhees

WR Rashee Rice or Cedric Tillman or Zay Flowers or Rakim Jarrett

DL Mike Morris

 

We will need a Safety, if that means using our first pick on one, so be it.

Offensive Guard & Center is more of a dire need than Offensive Tackle.

Those first two? Be still my heart 

[thunderingsquid]

If Edmunds is gone

[Pine Barrens Mafia]

2 hours ago, JakeFrommStateFarm said:

This is what I believe Beane will do not what I want

 

1. EDGE - pass rush is terrible without Miller, he's aging and wont be healthy the whole season_
2. Safety - Poyer will leave
3. LB - Edmunds will leave as we wont be able to match 
4. Guard
5. Guard/Tackle - Need a nice swing tackle/guard
6. WR
7. Traded away

That next day should be his last 

[NeverOutNick]

19 hours ago, LABILLBACKER said:

1.  RT, Brown needs to be a backup only.

 

2. RG, Bates will be replacing Saffold at LG so we'll need RG who can transition to C when Morse leaves.

 

3. WR2, not going to be Davis or Shakir.  Josh deserves better with Diggs approaching 30. 

 

Other areas of need include power RB, S,  DT, TE2. 

I like this. My offseason wish list with the above in mind because I feel like it’s better to invest draft capital in O line than it is WR and RB:

 

- Trade for Deandre Hopkins if it only costs a 3rd or later and he doesn’t want to be paid more than Diggs. If it’s not possible let’s take a 1 year prove it deal on Michael Thomas. He’s been injury prone but I bet on a 1 year deal with Josh Allen he’s stay healthy and thrives. #2 WR locked in and ready for our SB run with Davis, Shakir, and Beasley filling in at 3-5.

 

- Draft John Michael Schmitz first round. Stick him at RG and then he’s the eventual replacement for Morse and is going to be a stud. 
 

- Find a couple more O Linemen in the draft to compete (hopefully we have some new scouts who know what makes a good O lineman). Fill the rest of the draft with BPA

- If we can’t bring Edmunds back for a reasonable pay day let him walk and sign the old vet Lavonte David for a 1 year deal. Dude is a stud even though he’s old and will thrive in our vanilla D on our way to a SB

 

- when the dust settles sign one of the remaining RBs that can kill in short yardage left to a cheap deal (crazy free agency for awesome RBs no need to rush in early)

 

- Lastly the one I know I’ll get most push back on. Sign hometown legend Gronk to a one year hometown discount deal. 

Doing all of this protects Josh for the long term and sets us up to win a SB in the upcoming season.

[SoCal Deek]

I find it sad that these lists always read like a virtual graveyard of underperforming, already cut, or soon to be cut, previous top (or near top) draft picks. 
 

Edmunds

Oliver

Singletary

Moss

Ford

Lawson

Epenesa 

Zay Jones 

Basham 

 

We've really got to start hitting on more of these top picks. 

Edited February 8, 2023 by SoCal Deek

[thunderingsquid]

[vincec]

If you watched the Bengals game then it’s obvious they need to prioritize DL and OL in the first 3 rounds- pretty much any position there would work. Then take the best available player after that. And if they can’t resign Edmunds, then ILB moves up the list too. Forget FA except for role players and backups. They don’t have the money to get solid starters that way.

25 minutes ago, SoCal Deek said:

I find it sad that these lists always read like a virtual graveyard of underperforming, already cut, or soon to be cut, previous top (or near top) draft picks. 
 

Edmunds

Oliver

Singletary

Moss

Ford

Lawson

Epenesa 

Zay Jones 

Basham 

 

We've really got to start hitting on more of these top picks. 

Bring Doug Whaley back as scout? 😊

[thunderingsquid]

[newcam2012]

On 2/6/2023 at 9:28 PM, LABILLBACKER said:

1.  RT, Brown needs to be a backup only.

 

2. RG, Bates will be replacing Saffold at LG so we'll need RG who can transition to C when Morse leaves.

 

3. WR2, not going to be Davis or Shakir.  Josh deserves better with Diggs approaching 30. 

 

Other areas of need include power RB, S,  DT, TE2. 

Trade Diggs for as much as you can get! This will allow you to pick up a stud offensive linemen. Then bring in a couple of stop gap Wrs. Maybe even keep Beasley.

 

Build that Oline. Josh with time can throw to almost anyone and be successful. Problem is he doesn't get time. 

 

Diggs is going to become a problem next year. I truly believe his patience has run out. We've seen his behavior in Minn. Cut ties and get the max in a trade now. 

 

This isn't a far fetched wild idea. Look at what KC did. Traded Hill and created a great Oline. 

 

Mahomes had a bunch of nobodies to throw too. A bunch of mediocre Rbs. The Oline is elite and makes Mahomes and the Chief offense run like clockwork. 

 

The Bills need to take page out of the Chiefs playbook. 

 

The Bills just can't run it back this season. That will not work!

 

[philholbroo]

 

FA:

Dalton Risner

Tremaine Edmunds

N'keal Harry

Nasir Adderley

 

Trade for:

Montez Sweat 

 

Draft:

Bijan Robinson (probably trade up)

Dalton Kincaid or Michael Mayer if no trade up. Would also not mind an OL that falls.

 

 

[John from Riverside]

We need to hedge your bets on a offensive line by getting a actual quality, not over the hill, veteran to go along with drafting another offense of lineman, high, and getting another one in the draft
 

I would like to see at least one quality, veteran wide receiver, and one quality, veteran offense of lineman

8 minutes ago, philholbroo said:

 

FA:

Dalton Risner

Tremaine Edmunds

N'keal Harry

Nasir Adderley

 

Trade for:

Montez Sweat 

 

Draft:

Bijan Robinson (probably trade up)

Dalton Kincaid or Michael Mayer if no trade up. Would also not mind an OL that falls.

 

 

Do you have to be joking with N’Keal Harry what a bust

[philholbroo]

1 hour ago, John from Riverside said:

We need to hedge your bets on a offensive line by getting a actual quality, not over the hill, veteran to go along with drafting another offense of lineman, high, and getting another one in the draft
 

I would like to see at least one quality, veteran wide receiver, and one quality, veteran offense of lineman

Do you have to be joking with N’Keal Harry what a bust

Yes on the OL, its why Risner would be my #1 signing. Young enough to last for the next 5 years at a high level, but veteran enough to know what hes doing. Would also like the hedge of draft too.

Harry is somewhat of a joke entry, but also is the type of receiver that Allen would like throwing too, although he is a lot like Gabe Davis just worse. The reason I would look at him is cheapness or at least should be. Plus I dont know what other receiver to look at that would fit in the cap, I'm sure there are some.

[John from Riverside]

1 hour ago, philholbroo said:

Yes on the OL, its why Risner would be my #1 signing. Young enough to last for the next 5 years at a high level, but veteran enough to know what hes doing. Would also like the hedge of draft too.

Harry is somewhat of a joke entry, but also is the type of receiver that Allen would like throwing too, although he is a lot like Gabe Davis just worse. The reason I would look at him is cheapness or at least should be. Plus I dont know what other receiver to look at that would fit in the cap, I'm sure there are some.

I would look at a guy like Paris Cample

[Bill from NYC]

On 2/7/2023 at 12:48 AM, Mark Vader said:

My wish list.

 

Free Agency:

OL Issac Seamolu

OL Dalton Risner

WR DJ Chark

RB Samaje Perine

 

I don't think signing these players is that difficult to do and will not hurt our salary cap.

 

Draft:

S Antonio Johnson or Jordan Battle

OL John Michael Schmitz or Olusegun Oluwatimi & Steve Avila or Andrew Vorhees

WR Rashee Rice or Cedric Tillman or Zay Flowers or Rakim Jarrett

DL Mike Morris

 

We will need a Safety, if that means using our first pick on one, so be it.

Offensive Guard & Center is more of a dire need than Offensive Tackle.

I don't want to draft a safety early but as an Alabama Fan who watches every game, I think that Brian Branch is a better player than Battle.

 

Battle is bigger and stronger than Branch but the quality of his play diminished last season. He is good mind you but Branch excels at every phase of the position. He even reminds me a bit of Poyer.

 

Jmo.

[Mark Vader]

7 hours ago, Bill from NYC said:

I don't want to draft a safety early but as an Alabama Fan who watches every game, I think that Brian Branch is a better player than Battle.

 

Battle is bigger and stronger than Branch but the quality of his play diminished last season. He is good mind you but Branch excels at every phase of the position. He even reminds me a bit of Poyer.

 

Jmo.

Good to know.

 

Although, I like Antonio Johnson the most.

[Billz4ever]

I think this would be a fantastic draft, but I don't see a few of these guys still being on the board for us in those particular rounds.  They were still there in the simulator, so I rolled with it.  I can dream.  I'm not trying to take a RB in the first round, but I think we'd be foolish to not grab Robinson if he's still there.  I think we'd have one of the best backfields in football with him and Cook assuming he produces like we would expect.

 

Grabbed a Safety and DT because I'm assuming Poyer isn't going to be back and I'd like to shop Oliver and get bigger up front on the D-Line.

Edited February 14, 2023 by Billz4ever

[aristocrat]

Dalton risner, mike mcglinchey and solidify that right side. Let tremaine and poyer walk. Dalvin Tomlinson at d tackle. First three rounds wide receiver mlb and center to replace Morse after this year but gives guard depth for the year 

[LABILLBACKER]

On 2/6/2023 at 11:27 PM, John from Riverside said:

Draft another press man corner to go along with Elam
 

No more 8 yards off the ball *****

Tell that to McFrazier,  not me. I wanted to transition away from zone in 2019.