Are the Bills committed to Ed Oliver in 2023?

[Boatdrinks]

They shouldn’t be. 

[Buffalo Junction]

3 hours ago, mannc said:

I just don’t know how you take an undersized, small conference guy like Oliver over a monster like Dexter Lawrence, who was the centerpiece of a championship defense at Clemson.  It points to a serious flaw in the Bills’ scouting process and evaluation…

IIRC, Lawrence failed a PEE test and was held out of the college playoffs…. and Simmons wasn’t invited to the combine after a video leaked out of him hitting a woman and he took a plea deal for assault. 

[mannc]

2 minutes ago, Buffalo Junction said:

IIRC, Lawrence failed a PEE test and was held out of the college playoffs…. and Simmons wasn’t invited to the combine after a video leaked out of him hitting a woman and he took a plea deal for assault. 

I don't know if any of that is true; I never heard about it pre-draft, but of course Simmons had an ACL injury that hurt his draft status.  What I do know is that both are now game-wreckers and the next game lil' Ed changes will be his first.

[FireChans]

3 hours ago, John from Riverside said:

Is anybody going to take into account the fact that he was injured the whole year

Is anybody going to take into account that we are all ***** sick and tired of waiting 9 years for any of our draft picks to turn into something they are never going to be?

1 hour ago, BarleyNY said:

If you were an NFL GM, what would you trade for Ed Oliver and his one year, fully guaranteed $10.75M contract?

If I was the GM of the Bears?  Yes.  Why not?

[Sharky7337]

1 minute ago, FireChans said:

Is anybody going to take into account that we are all ***** sick and tired of waiting 9 years for any of our draft picks to turn into something they are never going to be?

This. I stated this before and this regime needs to either draft better or let its rookies grow and learn sooner.

 

We can't get one year of useful production out of a pick. It makes this model unsustainable.

 

 

[BarleyNY]

1 hour ago, damj said:

If you have the cap room and have a need at DT, there is enough there with him for an organization to think that they could get more out of him. As a GM, I would offer a 3rd round pick, but go as high as a 2.

Wow, that’s a very good return. But if you value him as highly as a Day 2 pick, why would you want trade him away?

 

If I were a GM in need of a 3T I’d go to the FA market first. If that dried up or if I lost my 3T to injury during the season but before the trade deadline I’d look at trading for a player like Oliver. But he’s a pretty expensive one year rental so I’d need to be in dire straits to cough up a Day 2 pick. I’d be more inclined to trade a comparable player with a similar contract if it was prior to the season starting. 

[BarleyNY]

5 minutes ago, FireChans said:

If I was the GM of the Bears?  Yes.  Why not?

That’s a reasonable thought as they certainly could use an upgrade at DT. But they’re likely more interested in longer term and cheaper solutions to their many needs. Or more proven players if they’re that expensive. You might be able to find a GM who will take a chance on such a highly drafted player, but it’ll be tough sledding with his contract. 

[Pine Barrens Mafia]

6 hours ago, LabattBlue said:

For some reason I thought he was a FA, but according to spotrac he is under contract to the tune of a ~11m cap hit. 😱

 

https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/buffalo-bills/ed-oliver-29044/

He's not worth 11 million a year

 

[FireChans]

1 minute ago, BarleyNY said:

That’s a reasonable thought as they certainly could use an upgrade at DT. But they’re likely more interested in longer term and cheaper solutions to their many needs. Or more proven players if they’re that expensive. You might be able to find a GM who will take a chance on such a highly drafted player, but it’ll be tough sledding with his contract. 

They have the most cap space in the league and no one to spend it on.  They aren't going to get a player in the 4th round better than Oliver. If he has a solid year, they can extend him at a reasonable salary.  If he plays like a top 10 pick is supposed to, they can pay him the big bucks.  It makes total sense.

[damj]

1 hour ago, Ethan in Cleveland said:

Beane overvalues draft picks and then wastes them. 

While I agree my bet is you could find a team willing to give up a 3rd, then what is the point. Giving up a starting DT for a 3rd round pick? So basically Oliver for Terrell Bernard??? No thanks. I will take Oliver back on a 5th yr guarantee over a 3rd round pick. 

It's the money though. I think we're better off getting what we can for him and spend the money elsewhere.

10 minutes ago, FireChans said:

They have the most cap space in the league and no one to spend it on.  They aren't going to get a player in the 4th round better than Oliver. If he has a solid year, they can extend him at a reasonable salary.  If he plays like a top 10 pick is supposed to, they can pay him the big bucks.  It makes total sense.

You took the words right out of my mouth

[Buf4alo]

I like Oliver, but so far he hasn't shown that he deserves the big bucks. Maybe Beane can trade him for a day 2 pick or something.

 

On a side note, I'm curious to see if Basham could transition to 3-tech and take over Oliver's role. He is too stiff to play the edge imo, but is still a freak athlete. I think he could put on a little weight, and do well there.

 

 

[Buffalo Junction]

1 hour ago, mannc said:

I don't know if any of that is true; I never heard about it pre-draft, but of course Simmons had an ACL injury that hurt his draft status.  What I do know is that both are now game-wreckers and the next game lil' Ed changes will be his first.

They certainly are. I’m of the opinion that you probably need to take a chance on a few guys who are high end talent over character, injury, experience concerns coming out if you want to find difference makers outside of the top 10-20. Rousseau is an example of that as well with his Covid year off. 
 

Simmons…

https://www.tennessean.com/story/sports/nfl/titans/2019/04/26/titans-jeffery-simmons-video/3585708002/
 

Lawrence…

https://www.si.com/.amp/college/2018/12/24/clemson-dexter-lawrence-drug-test-ostarine-fail-college-football-playoff

[Logic]

6 hours ago, Solomon Grundy said:

I think Beane's problem is that they feel their coaching staff can mold a talent to be great. Epenesa and Basham are prime examples to me. Like spit shining some shoes. 

You're not wrong, but it should be pointed out that the absolute BIGGEST and MAIN reason that the Bills are contenders right now is because in one particular and very important instance, the coaching staff DID mold a raw talent to be great.

Edited January 24, 2023 by Logic

[RG Murdock]

Where was Oliver on Sunday, when the team needed him to step up? Nowhere to be found, against practice squad players. Get a 3rd/4th rounder for him (If possible) and move on. Another Beans bust.  

[iccrewman112]

7 hours ago, LabattBlue said:

For some reason I thought he was a FA, but according to spotrac he is under contract to the tune of a ~11m cap hit. 😱

 

https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/buffalo-bills/ed-oliver-29044/

trade him and the salary for this season. He won’t be resigned after this upcoming season so mind as well get a 3rd rounder for him.

 

he had 1 pressure against a backup oline.

[Victory Formation]

He is a good, not great DT, so long as his contract reflects that I have no problem with him staying.

[12thManInTheHuddle]

Oliver will play well in a contract year. Keep him and use him up. The key is to not re-sign him (the Marcell Dareus trap)

[DJB]

The worst part of the Oliver pick?

 

We passed on 3 much better DT in Dexter Lawrence, J Simmons and C Wilkins

 

Let some other team overpay for this useless bum 

Edited May 5, 2023 by DJB

[DCofNC]

On 1/24/2023 at 9:58 AM, LabattBlue said:

I just looked at the 1st round of that draft a few days ago. 4 DT taken within 10 picks of each other, the Bills chose first, and got the worst of the 4. 😞

There’s a reason for “prototypical” size in players.  I didn’t understand that pick at the time and unfortunately, the Bills were not smarter than everyone else.

[Eastport bills]

Oliver has been inconsistent but when he’s active and penetrating he resembles Aaron Donald. He’s in his walk year so expect tremendous effort from him. NFL players make the most money with the second contract especially if they stick with the team for five seasons.

[BillsFanForever19]

16 hours ago, DJB said:

The worst part of the Oliver pick?

 

We passed on 3 much better DT in Dexter Lawrence, J Simmons and C Wilkins

 

Let some other team overpay for this useless bum 

 

Way to dig back to a post from January to dig on this year's version of Tremaine Edmunds, amongst hyperbolic posters of this board.

 

"Useless bum" is a bit of a reach.

Edited May 6, 2023 by BillsFanForever19

[BuffaloRebound]

Let’s hope he has a breakout year, but he’s definitely been underwhelming especially  when you look at the top 20 picks that year.  That was a pretty stacked draft.  In hindsight there’s no way he should’ve went that high at that size without huge production.  

[DCofNC]

22 hours ago, Eastport bills said:

Oliver has been inconsistent but when he’s active and penetrating he resembles Aaron Donald. He’s in his walk year so expect tremendous effort from him. NFL players make the most money with the second contract especially if they stick with the team for five seasons.

Oliver has had 4 years and never once has he had even a single game where he’s had Aaron Donald like impact on a game.  He’s a marginal starter, just admit reality and move on.

[Ethan in Cleveland]

11 minutes ago, DCofNC said:

Oliver has had 4 years and never once has he had even a single game where he’s had Aaron Donald like impact on a game.  He’s a marginal starter, just admit reality and move on.

Use him for one more year and let him walk. Hated the pick when it was made and he's done nothing to justify a top 10 pick. 

Let someone else overpay for this guy 

[Eastport bills]

1 hour ago, DCofNC said:

Oliver has had 4 years and never once has he had even a single game where he’s had Aaron Donald like impact on a game.  He’s a marginal starter, just admit reality and move on.

Do you respect Sean/Beane’s talent evaluations? Oliver has averaged 16 games, 35 tackles and 4 sacks since 2019. They could have unceremoniously dumped him the last 2 years. They sign tackles in FA every year and Oliver plays the most. The team has  consistently been top 5 in defense the last 3 years. I said he resembles Donald on the occasion when he gets penetration and looks to quick for the interior O-line. You want reality, they could have traded him to several tackle needy teams for draft choices the last 2 years but they value his durability and his contribution.

[Beck Water]

On 1/24/2023 at 8:16 AM, LabattBlue said:

For some reason I thought he was a FA, but according to spotrac he is under contract to the tune of a ~11m cap hit. 😱

 

https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/buffalo-bills/ed-oliver-29044/

 

It's fully guaranteed, so they ain't gonna cut Big Ed.

 

It'd be tough to get full value on a trade, because it's a 1 yr rental on a big contract.

 

So my feeling is yeah, they're fully committed for 2023 because they'll get more if they use him for a year and then manage a comp pick if they don't want to extend him. 

[DCofNC]

1 hour ago, Eastport bills said:

Do you respect Sean/Beane’s talent evaluations? Oliver has averaged 16 games, 35 tackles and 4 sacks since 2019. They could have unceremoniously dumped him the last 2 years. They sign tackles in FA every year and Oliver plays the most. The team has  consistently been top 5 in defense the last 3 years. I said he resembles Donald on the occasion when he gets penetration and looks to quick for the interior O-line. You want reality, they could have traded him to several tackle needy teams for draft choices the last 2 years but they value his durability and his contribution.

Well, if you are asking if I think they are wrong to play him over other players and not dump his inflated contract vs value.  Yes, I question them.

Edited May 7, 2023 by DCofNC

[Eastport bills]

59 minutes ago, DCofNC said:

Well, if you are asking if I think they are wrong to play him over other players and not dump his inflated contract vs value.  Yes, I question them.

Who exactly would you bring in for the minuscule cap space available, that would be a better fit? The fans wanted Edmunds dumped before his walk year similarly. He ended up having his best year and getting the richest LB contract in the NFL. Thankfully the decision makers don’t care what the message board hucksters think.

[Chandler#81]

Committed? Well, there’s no ring. It’s platonic. They’re just good friends..🤷‍♂️

[Buffalo_Stampede]

I would’ve been fine with trading Oliver and signing Poona Ford as his replacement.

 

Here we are. We signed Ford.

[BarleyNY]

9 hours ago, Buffalo_Stampede said:

I would’ve been fine with trading Oliver and signing Poona Ford as his replacement.

 

Here we are. We signed Ford.

I was not down for trading Oliver durning FA. We’d never have gotten value. However now that we’ve got Ford and a deep enough DT roster to withstand losing him, it’s a different story. If, after the DT FA pool finishes drying up, a team that fancies itself a contender finds itself in serious need of a 3T, well, it’d be rude not to listen to their offer. 

[PrimeTime101]

On 5/5/2023 at 10:12 PM, BuffaloRebound said:

Let’s hope he has a breakout year, but he’s definitely been underwhelming especially  when you look at the top 20 picks that year.  That was a pretty stacked draft.  In hindsight there’s no way he should’ve went that high at that size without huge production.  

he has a breakout year like Edmunds did? then we will not be able to afford him.  That is a win lose scenario.

[DCofNC]

17 hours ago, Eastport bills said:

Who exactly would you bring in for the minuscule cap space available, that would be a better fit? The fans wanted Edmunds dumped before his walk year similarly. He ended up having his best year and getting the richest LB contract in the NFL. Thankfully the decision makers don’t care what the message board hucksters think.

Yeah, brilliant strategy isn’t it?  Don’t extend a guy and let him become the most desirable guy at his position in FA, get nothing for him.. Now you are down the path of paying a guy 2x his market value and if he finally “finds” it, you are in the same position again.   If you could have unloaded Oliver for literally anything, you would have 11M to work with for a far better player, but the league knows he’s a nobody so you can’t even get a future garbage pick for him.   So homer it up all you want, Beane has mismanaged every 1st round pick outside of Allen and it’s a REAL good thing he got that right or there would be even less space to work with.

3 minutes ago, PrimeTime101 said:

he has a breakout year like Edmunds did? then we will not be able to afford him.  That is a win lose scenario.

This is why the 5th year option is fools gold. 

[PrimeTime101]

7 minutes ago, DCofNC said:

Yeah, brilliant strategy isn’t it?  Don’t extend a guy and let him become the most desirable guy at his position in FA, get nothing for him.. Now you are down the path of paying a guy 2x his market value and if he finally “finds” it, you are in the same position again.   If you could have unloaded Oliver for literally anything, you would have 11M to work with for a far better player, but the league knows he’s a nobody so you can’t even get a future garbage pick for him.   So homer it up all you want, Beane has mismanaged every 1st round pick outside of Allen and it’s a REAL good thing he got that right or there would be even less space to work with.

This is why the 5th year option is fools gold. 

depends. are you a team with money to spend or are you not. 

[Nephilim17]

10 hours ago, Chandler#81 said:

Committed? Well, there’s no ring. It’s platonic. They’re just good friends..🤷‍♂️

Why buy the cow when you can get the milk for $10 million.

[Eastport bills]

9 minutes ago, PrimeTime101 said:

depends. are you a team with money to spend or are you not. 

Like I asked before who are you bringing in to replace Oliver? They have Ford and Jones and seemingly are able to bring in another edge(Clark, Ingram). What’s your problem with letting a 4 year, 1st rd draft choice, play his ass off in a contract yea?. If he has a great year, franchise him and get draft choices if someone else wants to pay him. They picked up his 5th year option because he’s durable and they need him in their rotation. This is a crucial year for the Bills, after letting Cinn. end their season in embarrassing fashion. We need our best defenders after losing Edmunds. You don’t like Oliver, just live with it.

[HappyDays]

43 minutes ago, DCofNC said:

Yeah, brilliant strategy isn’t it?  Don’t extend a guy and let him become the most desirable guy at his position in FA, get nothing for him

 

They're getting a 3rd round pick for him which is likely the same or better than what they would have gotten for him in a trade last offseason. Plus they got the best year of his career in the middle of their Super Bowl window. In what way did they mismanage that situation?

[Buffalo_Stampede]

1 hour ago, HappyDays said:

 

They're getting a 3rd round pick for him which is likely the same or better than what they would have gotten for him in a trade last offseason. Plus they got the best year of his career in the middle of their Super Bowl window. In what way did they mismanage that situation?

$10 million cap space is a lot more valuable than the 100th pick in the draft.

 

The way I look at is if you don’t like a player enough to sign him long term then move him out so you can sign a player you do like long term, like Yannick Ngakoue.

 

Don’t wait for him to walk and don’t let him eat a large chunk of the cap if he isn’t a player you like long term.

Edited May 7, 2023 by Buffalo_Stampede

[4merper4mer]

6 minutes ago, Buffalo_Stampede said:

$10 million cap space is a lot more valuable than the 100th pick in the draft.

 

The way I look at is if you don’t like a player enough to sign him long term then move him out so you can sign a player you do like long term, like Yannick Ngakoue.

You like Ngakoue long term?  Shirley.

[HappyDays]

7 minutes ago, Buffalo_Stampede said:

$10 million cap space is a lot more valuable than the 100th pick in the draft.

 

The way I look at is if you don’t like a player enough to sign him long term then move him out so you can sign a player you do like long term, like Yannick Ngakoue.

 

Don’t wait for him to walk and don’t let him eat a large chunk of the cap if he isn’t a player you like long term.

 

I have said that if they trade Oliver as a means to free up cap space to trade for Hopkins, I'm all for it. If they trade him just to free up cap space for more rotational pieces, that doesn't make any sense. Don't create a hole at a starting position just to fill depth holes. If they want to create a hole at DT to fill a hole at #2 WR then yes the trade off is worth it.