The other guy throws picks, too

[Beck Water]

In contrast to some here, I like Kurt Warner's breakdowns and accept as valid his point that Josh is sometimes trying too hard for the kill shot when there are open guys underneath who could get yards.

 

In this NFL Total Access segment from this week, Warner lauds Burrows accuracy and decision making and "putting it up to allow his guys to make plays" and says "whoever wins those 50/50 balls could go a long way to decide who wins this game".  OK.

 

He also pulls clips from Josh Allen's recent "Wind Tunnel" game in Chicago, praises him for threatening defenses every time he steps on the field, and says he could use a "little more understanding" of when to take those chances and when not to take those chances.  He highlights Allen's deep throw into double coverage that was picked.  Allen acknowledges that as "a bad decision" and I think we would all agree. 

 

 

I think it's appropriate to point out here that the other guy can make some bad decisions too.

 

I was surprised to look up and see that Josh Allen has thrown 13 interceptions, 9th in the league, right up there with Tua.

 

But guess who's #12, with 12 interceptions?  This guy, that's who.  I couldn't find this season, but here's a little look at last season when Burrow threw 14.

 

Open invitation to the Buffalo Bills Defense: let's help Burrow equal or surpass his tally last year, shall we?

 

 

Enjoy!

Edited January 1, 2023 by Beck Water

[thenorthremembers]

Watched a fair amount of the Bengals/Patriots game last week, other than the Patriots completely melting down, one thing stood out to me, Burrow's arm strength doesnt match his confidence.   He is a very accurate kid, but man did he throw a lot of passes that should have been picked.  Josh is up there as well dont get me wrong, but I'd like to see the stat for % of interceptable passes that someone like PFF or Football Outsiders would have.

 

[Nextmanup]

The mental side of Josh's game has been as bad as they physical mistake side, which is why I have never accepted the idea that it's "his elbow" that has caused some slumps in his play this year.

 

He hasn't been banging on all cylinders, consistently, for a very long time.

 

IT DOES feel like he has regressed this season in all aspects of the position.  Maybe he really does miss Daboll.  I have no idea!
 

The good news is that "lights out" Josh is in there somewhere, and it can come to the surface at any time.

Last year in the playoffs he was incredible.

 

 

[Beck Water]

2 minutes ago, thenorthremembers said:

Watched a fair amount of the Bengals/Patriots game last week, other than the Patriots completely melting down, one thing stood out to me, Burrow's arm strength doesnt match his confidence.   He is a very accurate kid, but man did he throw a lot of passes that should have been picked.  Josh is up there as well dont get me wrong, but I'd like to see the stat for % of interceptable passes that someone like PFF or Football Outsiders would have.

 

This matches the "code" translation for what Greg Cosell said: Burrow is Very Aggressive throwing outside.  Translation: he throws 50/50 balls to his WR down the sideline, and lets his 6'4" 220 lb receiver bail him out. 

 

I was surprised watching Burrow how many balls he threw where I said "wow, that coulda been picked".  It kind of reminds me of Allen in 2020, where he was really really trusting his guys to come down with it.

[Beck Water]

16 minutes ago, Nextmanup said:

The mental side of Josh's game has been as bad as they physical mistake side, which is why I have never accepted the idea that it's "his elbow" that has caused some slumps in his play this year.

 

He hasn't been banging on all cylinders, consistently, for a very long time.

 

IT DOES feel like he has regressed this season in all aspects of the position.  Maybe he really does miss Daboll.  I have no idea!

 

Hi.  Point out the regression.  Thanks.

 

 

While you're there, perhaps you could explain what "regression" means to you.

Edited January 1, 2023 by Beck Water

[FireChans]

32 minutes ago, Beck Water said:

In contrast to some here, I like Kurt Warner's breakdowns and accept as valid his point that Josh is sometimes trying too hard for the kill shot when there are open guys underneath who could get yards.

 

In this NFL Total Access segment from this week, Warner lauds Burrows accuracy and decision making and "putting it up to allow his guys to make plays" and says "whoever wins those 50/50 balls could go a long way to decide who wins this game".  OK.

 

He also pulls clips from Josh Allen's recent "Wind Tunnel" game in Chicago, praises him for threatening defenses every time he steps on the field, and says he could use a "little more understanding" of when to take those chances and when not to take those chances.  He highlights Allen's deep throw into double coverage that was picked.  Allen acknowledges that as "a bad decision" and I think we would all agree. 

 

 

I think it's appropriate to point out here that the other guy can make some bad decisions too.

 

I was surprised to look up and see that Josh Allen has thrown 13 interceptions, 9th in the league, right up there with Tua.

 

But guess who's #12, with 12 interceptions?  This guy, that's who.  I couldn't find this season, but here's a little look at last season when Burrow threw 14.

 

Open invitation to the Buffalo Bills Defense: let's help Burrow equal or surpass his tally last year, shall we?

 

 

Enjoy!

You sure showed Kurt Warner. Will he have the nerve to show his face around these parts again?

[Punch]

Burrow doesn’t throw interceptions, you’re taking his passes out of context.

[Beck Water]

22 minutes ago, TBBills said:

People get so triggered by what is said on TV and the internet.

 

Hi.  This is a message board where we....discuss the Bills, including what's said about them (good and bad) and our reactions to it.

 

Please explain the difference between filling the purpose of this message board, and being "triggered"

 

I'll hang up and listen.

Edited January 1, 2023 by Beck Water

[Mr. WEO]

I did NOT know that...

[Teddy KGB]

20 minutes ago, Beck Water said:

 

Hi.  Point out the regression.  Thanks.

 

 

While you're there, perhaps you could explain what "regression" means to you.

You watch the games and see the regression   

 

Remember when he used to throw the ball to Diggs instead of no name Bear linebackers ? 

[Pete]

Bills haven’t had many turnovers lately.  I think it’s been 6 games since int.  Jaquan intercepted Hail Mary (knock it down!) was last int I believe.

 

Hey Bills D - it’s a playoff game- make some plays!

[Roundybout]

1 minute ago, Teddy KGB said:

You watch the games and see the regression   

 

Remember when he used to throw the ball to Diggs instead of no name Bear linebackers ? 

 

Yeah I remember last year when he threw to no name Falcons linebackers. 

[Beck Water]

Just now, Teddy KGB said:

You watch the games and see the regression   

Remember when he used to throw the ball to Diggs instead of no name Bear linebackers ? 

 

Considering both our punter and our kicker commented on how variable and strong the winds were, if Josh says the wind carried that ball, seems credible.

Diggs had 5 receptions on 9 targets vs. Miami, IIRC at least 2 of those he could have caught.  3 receptions on 5 targets vs. the Jets, 1 scored drop.

 

I think people see what they want to see.

[Teddy KGB]

Just now, Beck Water said:

 

Considering both our punter and our kicker commented on how variable and strong the winds were, if Josh says the wind carried that ball, seems credible.

Diggs had 5 receptions on 9 targets vs. Miami, IIRC at least 2 of those he could have caught.  3 receptions on 5 targets vs. the Jets, 1 scored drop.

 

I think people see what they want to see.

yes, someone’s pretending spreadsheets > watching the games 😂

[entropyrules]

8 minutes ago, Teddy KGB said:

yes, someone’s pretending spreadsheets > watching the games 😂

Spreadsheets are the "boss"..they are like Viagra for statisticians

[UKBillFan]

12 minutes ago, Beck Water said:

 

Considering both our punter and our kicker commented on how variable and strong the winds were, if Josh says the wind carried that ball, seems credible.

Diggs had 5 receptions on 9 targets vs. Miami, IIRC at least 2 of those he could have caught.  3 receptions on 5 targets vs. the Jets, 1 scored drop.

 

I think people see what they want to see.

 

Worth remembering Josh had a very sticky regular season last year. Very similar to post bye this time around. I think the frustration is that, before the bye, he seemed to have cleaned a lot of that up.

[Beck Water]

30 minutes ago, Teddy KGB said:

yes, someone’s pretending spreadsheets > watching the games 😂

 

No one's pretending any such thing

Both matter

 

When you defend someone's post that it's been a long time since Allen has been "banging on all cylinders" and he's regressed this season (regression is a statistical term) with "Remember when he used to throw the ball to Diggs instead of no name Bear linebackers ? " ....

 

you call into question whether you, in fact, do either -

 

- since he was throwing the ball to Diggs, a lot, like, IDK 2 weeks ago

 

 

Edited January 1, 2023 by Beck Water

[JGMcD2]

2 minutes ago, Beck Water said:

 

No one's pretending any such thing

Both matter

 

When you defend someone's post that it's been a long time since Allen has been "banging on all cylinders" and he's regressed this season (regression is a statistical term, you do know that?) with "Remember when he used to throw the ball to Diggs instead of no name Bear linebackers ? " you call into question whether you, in fact, do either -

 

- since he was throwing the ball to Diggs, a lot, like, IDK 2 weeks ago

Hahaha this has me cracking up. 
 

Sports fans both misunderstand and overuse the word regression. 

[RiotAct]

1 hour ago, Nextmanup said:

The mental side of Josh's game has been as bad as they physical mistake side, which is why I have never accepted the idea that it's "his elbow" that has caused some slumps in his play this year.

 

He hasn't been banging on all cylinders, consistently, for a very long time.

 

IT DOES feel like he has regressed this season in all aspects of the position.  Maybe he really does miss Daboll.  I have no idea!
 

The good news is that "lights out" Josh is in there somewhere, and it can come to the surface at any time.

Last year in the playoffs he was incredible.

 

 

he went through some fairly big struggles last regular season, too.  He’s regressed this season from how he played in the POSTSEASON, sure, but taken as a whole I think he’s improved over where he was in the ‘21 campaign at this point in the seaosn.  (Without having all the numbers in front of me)

[Billsfan1972]

Would love to see a Bills WR go up and make a catch in tight coverage.  Or win a 50/50 ball.  

 

When was the last time any one remembers one.

 

Come Monday I bet (hope I'm wrong), fans grumbling about the balls Chase Higgins.... catch.

 

Oh and how about the Bills defense get an int? Last 6 games the only int was vs. Peterman (and that can't count, can it?😉)

[Beck Water]

Just now, JGMcD2 said:

Hahaha this has me cracking up. 
Sports fans both misunderstand and overuse the word regression. 

 

That and "yips" which...does not mean what some here seem to think it means

 

Personally, I think a big difference for Allen this season has been the route running savvy and hands of last year's vs this year's WR

Manny Sands + Beasley >> Gabe Davis + (McKenzie + Shakir)

 

That's an 👀 test thing of course. 

 

All the receivers seem to looove them some Chad Hall as their WR coach, but too often I see WR too close to each other on what look like route running mistakes (because I can't believe an actual NFL-level passing game coordinator would design a play like that)

[Orlando Tim]

6 minutes ago, Billsfan1972 said:

Would love to see a Bills WR go up and make a catch in tight coverage.  Or win a 50/50 ball.  

 

When was the last time any one remembers one.

 

Come Monday I bet (hope I'm wrong), fans grumbling about the balls Chase Higgins.... catch.

 

Oh and how about the Bills defense get an int? Last 6 games the only int was vs. Peterman (and that can't count, can it?😉)

Diggs is elite on 50/50 balls and Davis has been great at times but I do agree that recently it has not been often. 

[thenorthremembers]

1 hour ago, Beck Water said:

 

This matches the "code" translation for what Greg Cosell said: Burrow is Very Aggressive throwing outside.  Translation: he throws 50/50 balls to his WR down the sideline, and lets his 6'4" 220 lb receiver bail him out. 

 

I was surprised watching Burrow how many balls he threw where I said "wow, that coulda been picked".  It kind of reminds me of Allen in 2020, where he was really really trusting his guys to come down with it.

Those were my exact thoughts last week.  It was surprising to me how many times on the same drive he was willing to let it go into really bad situations.   Multiple times last week the ball was tipped up into the air for anyone to catch, the Pats just couldnt get there .

 

I think Joe has all the swag in the world, but part of me wonders how he will do when they dont have as much talent at wideout.

[Billsfan1972]

22 minutes ago, Orlando Tim said:

Diggs is elite on 50/50 balls and Davis has been great at times but I do agree that recently it has not been often. 

Diggs frankly I haven't seen winning 50/50 balls, usually he is open.  Yes he has made tough catches, but I'm talking the 50/50 or tough over the shoulder catch with a defender right there.  

 

Davis caught one vs. Pitt and that was it.  

 

Usually it is just a throw to an open receiver.  

[TheyCallMeAndy]

So much luck goes into picks, Allen, Mahommes, and Burrow all throw plenty. 
 

They also throw tons of TDs. I say as long as you keep the picks to less than half the TDs, it’s fine 

[Punching Bag]

2 hours ago, Nextmanup said:

The mental side of Josh's game has been as bad as they physical mistake side, which is why I have never accepted the idea that it's "his elbow" that has caused some slumps in his play this year.

 

He hasn't been banging on all cylinders, consistently, for a very long time.

 

IT DOES feel like he has regressed this season in all aspects of the position.  Maybe he really does miss Daboll.  I have no idea!
 

The good news is that "lights out" Josh is in there somewhere, and it can come to the surface at any time.

Last year in the playoffs he was incredible.

 

The one thing we kept hearing last year was that Coach Diabolical and Josh Allen were constantly in touch so much so they might have violated rules during offseason.  OC had an idea and called/texted/videoed Allen "What do you think?" and Allen did same to his OC.  We have not heard about that this year with Dorsey.

[Teddy KGB]

54 minutes ago, Beck Water said:

 

No one's pretending any such thing

Both matter

 

When you defend someone's post that it's been a long time since Allen has been "banging on all cylinders" and he's regressed this season (regression is a statistical term) with "Remember when he used to throw the ball to Diggs instead of no name Bear linebackers ? " ....

 

you call into question whether you, in fact, do either -

 

- since he was throwing the ball to Diggs, a lot, like, IDK 2 weeks ago

 

 

No regression.   Losing to Zach Wilson is normal.  
 

I’m a huge Josh fan but the arm/accuracy seems off on 10 yard and shorter throws 

Edited January 1, 2023 by Teddy KGB

[John from Riverside]

2 hours ago, thenorthremembers said:

Watched a fair amount of the Bengals/Patriots game last week, other than the Patriots completely melting down, one thing stood out to me, Burrow's arm strength doesnt match his confidence.   He is a very accurate kid, but man did he throw a lot of passes that should have been picked.  Josh is up there as well dont get me wrong, but I'd like to see the stat for % of interceptable passes that someone like PFF or Football Outsiders would have.

 

It’s like the bills have gone from being that underdog team, that everybody routes for to being the evil imperial empire
 

I have heard every excuse of why the bills will lose on TV this week and hear everyone of them talk about Josh Allen’s mistakes as if these other franchise QBs don’t also make mistakes

[thenorthremembers]

28 minutes ago, John from Riverside said:

It’s like the bills have gone from being that underdog team, that everybody routes for to being the evil imperial empire
 

I have heard every excuse of why the bills will lose on TV this week and hear everyone of them talk about Josh Allen’s mistakes as if these other franchise QBs don’t also make mistakes

I think most national people just expected the greatest show on turf after week 1 and 2.   They also expected Josh to take another step and be the front runner for MVP.  Still think he is the most valuable player to his team in the NFL but he has also regressed to his mean throughout the season.    Its less sexy than destroying everyone they play.

 

Its the ebb and flow of the season.  The Bengals are the hot story right now.    I think with consistent winning you just see less fanfare.   Still feel like the Bills and Chiefs are the favorites in the AFC but the writers and TV people have to put out new stories.

[FLFan]

3 hours ago, Beck Water said:

 

Hi.  Point out the regression.  Thanks.

 

 

While you're there, perhaps you could explain what "regression" means to you.

Beat me to it. 👍

[Dr.Sack]

Allen’s receiving corps is not as dynamic as 2020 due to aging of the corps. Beasley & Brown are fragments of what they once were. Gabe Davis is incrementally better year 3. Diggs is now 29 not 27 but is still performing at an All-Pro level. The Bills will need to address the WRs on the offseason to re-equip the weapons for Allen. 

[Buffalo716]

6 hours ago, thenorthremembers said:

Watched a fair amount of the Bengals/Patriots game last week, other than the Patriots completely melting down, one thing stood out to me, Burrow's arm strength doesnt match his confidence.   He is a very accurate kid, but man did he throw a lot of passes that should have been picked.  Josh is up there as well dont get me wrong, but I'd like to see the stat for % of interceptable passes that someone like PFF or Football Outsiders would have.

 

I’ve been saying it for three years

 

Burrow does not have a very strong arm… He has everything else you want

 

Quick release, Processes extremely fast, Anticipates amazing…

 

But he is still the guy that Urban Meyer… Said throws like a girl

Edited January 1, 2023 by Buffalo716

[Ray Stonada]

5 hours ago, Pete said:

Bills haven’t had many turnovers lately.  I think it’s been 6 games since int.  Jaquan intercepted Hail Mary (knock it down!) was last int I believe.

 

Hey Bills D - it’s a playoff game- make some plays!

They will

 

The Bills know it’s time to step up. 
 

Mahomes has been throwing some bad picks lately too. They just haven’t played a team with an offense that can make him pay.

 

And if you can find a way to cover the backs running patterns out of the backfield, both Mahomes and Burrow will punt a lot.

[TN Bills Fan]

8 hours ago, Beck Water said:

 

Hi.  Point out the regression.  Thanks.

 

 

While you're there, perhaps you could explain what "regression" means to you.

 

8 hours ago, Beck Water said:

 

Hi.  Point out the regression.  Thanks.

 

 

While you're there, perhaps you could explain what "regression" means to you.

Since Chiefs game, leads the league in ints. And fumbles.  Also has worst qb. Rating, lowest comp. Percentage.  That’s REGRESSION.

[Sierra Foothills]

9 hours ago, thenorthremembers said:

Watched a fair amount of the Bengals/Patriots game last week, other than the Patriots completely melting down, one thing stood out to me, Burrow's arm strength doesnt match his confidence.   He is a very accurate kid, but man did he throw a lot of passes that should have been picked. 

 

2 hours ago, Buffalo716 said:

I’ve been saying it for three years

Burrow does not have a very strong arm… He has everything else you want

Quick release, Processes extremely fast, Anticipates amazing…

But he is still the guy that Urban Meyer… Said throws like a girl

 

Yes, Burrow is a very accurate thrower.

 

In many ways Burrow reminds me of a larger version of Drew Brees.

 

Along those same lines, Josh Allen reminds me of a larger version of Brett Favre (athletic gunslinger) and Mahomes is like a more athletic version of Aaron Rodgers (the first QB to normalize throwing off-platform and using varying arm angles).

 

Both Allen and Mahomes have raised the bar on the proficiencies of their predecessors... perhaps Burrow has too.

 

 

Edited January 2, 2023 by Sierra Foothills

[Nextmanup]

2 hours ago, Buffalo716 said:

But he is still the guy that Urban Meyer… Said throws like a girl

And what is Urban Meyer up to these days?  The guy's a freaking moron.

 

[4th&long]

People like to bring up what the other team does. I don’t care about the bengals. I don’t care what burrows does. 
 

i care what the bills do. ***** burrows!

[Buffalo716]

5 minutes ago, Nextmanup said:

And what is Urban Meyer up to these days?  The guy's a freaking moron.

 

The dude won national championships at 2 different schools… 2 in Florida in 3 years 

 

Ask @YoloinOhio how he feels about the man who got his buckeyes their last title 

 

The dude Retired twice and was checked out… He took money

 

He may be a lot of things but he is not a moron

Edited January 2, 2023 by Buffalo716

[Chaos]

9 hours ago, Nextmanup said:

The mental side of Josh's game has been as bad as they physical mistake side, which is why I have never accepted the idea that it's "his elbow" that has caused some slumps in his play this year.

 

He hasn't been banging on all cylinders, consistently, for a very long time.

 

IT DOES feel like he has regressed this season in all aspects of the position.  Maybe he really does miss Daboll.  I have no idea!
 

The good news is that "lights out" Josh is in there somewhere, and it can come to the surface at any time.

Last year in the playoffs he was incredible.

 

 

You don't have a clue. 

[Beck Water]

9 hours ago, Billsfan1972 said:

Would love to see a Bills WR go up and make a catch in tight coverage.  Or win a 50/50 ball.  

 

When was the last time any one remembers one.

 

Come Monday I bet (hope I'm wrong), fans grumbling about the balls Chase Higgins.... catch.

 

Oh and how about the Bills defense get an int? Last 6 games the only int was vs. Peterman (and that can't count, can it?😉)

 

Poyer had a pick and was totally robbed of it vs. the Jets 
We had 2 forced fumbles/recoveries against the Jets

Dane Jackson (I think) forced a fumble against the Bears

OK I won’t count the Peterman interception