How valuable is Hyde really?

[Einstein]

1 hour ago, Fide Deo said:

I cannot understand why thread comments so often personally attack and are rude to OPs. It is contrary to the kind and generous reputation that Bills fans have around the league.

 

For a bye week, I thought this was a well-reasoned post. The OP acknowledges that we are a better team WITH Hyde. The question is how much more so, and if the value is there to keep him. Nobody disputes his past contributions on the field, nor the incredible leadership and presence he has brought to the team. However, the defense has been playing excellent ball without him.

 

Thank you for this post.

 

Well written and I appreciate that you see how the groupthink on this forum makes it nearly unbearable sometimes.

[Einstein]

4 minutes ago, Thurman#1 said:

 

Despite a much better pass rush, the Bills are allowing long passes at a higher rate.

 

How did you come to this conclusion? First i’ve heard this.

 

Only thing i’ve seen is that the Bills are giving up 0.3 more ay/a this year, though that is quite minuscule. 

[What a Tuel]

16 minutes ago, Einstein said:

 

Thank you for this post.

 

Well written and I appreciate that you see how the groupthink on this forum makes it nearly unbearable sometimes.

 

The question turns into whether you are this anti group think when the bills lose a game and the forum is miserable or do you pile on the negativity? That is probably where the hang up is. We know what its like on this forum when we lose, and we know the participants.

 

Edit for example:

 

 

Edited October 26, 2022 by What a Tuel

[Not at the table Karlos]

11 hours ago, KingBoots8 said:

I don’t think anyone is trading for a guy who can’t be used for a year 🤷‍♂️

I'm not agreeing with the OP but if you were to trade him you would do it in the off-season when you know more about his recovery. He's still under contract next year. 

[Einstein]

49 minutes ago, Thurman#1 said:

 

Wrong, which is habitual for you.

 

All good posts start with an insult.

 

49 minutes ago, Thurman#1 said:

They targeted him five years ago by bringing him in. Then they again targeted him before the 2021 season by giving him a big new contract extension through 2023.

 

A 2 year extension that doesn’t put him in the top 20 of safeties money-wise is a “big” extension to you? I don’t personally see it that way. I think it was a moderate extension that gives them an out after 2 years.

 

49 minutes ago, Thurman#1 said:

At age 30, they made it very clear that they wanted him through 2023 in the most obvious and public way, by giving him a contract that even in the last year, 2023, would have cost $7M in dead cap money to get rid of him.

 

$7M in dead cap is not a lot. It is offset by regaining $11M in cap space. They save money by trading or cutting him, despite the dead cap.

 

This is called an “out” clause in the NFL and the Bills obviously structured it that way for a reason.

 

They also only gave him a 2 year deal for a reason.

 

49 minutes ago, Thurman#1 said:

You ignore this because it doesn't suit your dumb argument. 

 

I ignored it just like I “ignore” the fact that Hyde’s middle name is Richmond. It’s irrelevant to the discussion for all the reasons I listed above.

[Royale with Cheese]

11 hours ago, Einstein said:

 

We have to wait and see if the defense improves with his arrival.

 

If it doesn’t, well…

 

Our defense is already the best in the league.  Hyde and White are valuable to this defense.  

You already complained about the back up safety's in our defense.  You already have concerns with Elam.

 

These players have missed games on defense this year.  Edmunds, Bedford, Dane Jackson, Ed Oliver, Settle and Jordan Poyer.  I guess that means that none of these guys are valuable as well?

[Einstein]

49 minutes ago, Ethan in Cleveland said:

Good post.  

Teams cut aging injured good players for cap reasons all the time.  Tough decisions are coming up.  I don't see Hyde back next year.  

Whether they would be better with him now is a different question, I think they would.  But will they be the same or better off next year without him is a good question to ask. 

 

Thank you.

[Einstein]

1 hour ago, Draconator said:

I better go to urgent care, and get a mental heat warming test, because I can't believe I'm going to say this.

 

I'm giving @Einstein the benefit of the doubt.  

 

I don't think he's saying definitely get rid of Hyde. He's thinking out loud if maybe we are just as good without him and raising the possibility of moving on from him next year. 

 

Personally, we are just as good without Micah, but we would be giving close to 10 points per game (as opposed to the 16 points per game) with him in the lineup.  

 

Bingo!

 

What a breath of fresh air. It feels as if the cavalry of reasonable posters have stormed this thread to regain reasonable discussion.

 

As you pointed out, I am not preaching that we must get rid of Hyde. But I think it’s a fair question to ask how much worse we are really without him.

 

If you had asked me before the season how much worse we would be without him, I would have guessed significantly and noticeably worse in many ways.

 

I think many of us can agree that we don’t notice him gone (via broken coverages or bad plays by his replacement) as much as we may have thought we would have.

 

Which is a kudos to Beane for the depth he has has built and the coaching staff for their defensive scheme.

[Royale with Cheese]

8 hours ago, Einstein said:

 

“Any fool can know, the point is to understand” - Albert Einstein

 

The single worst part of sport discussion forums is groupthink.

 

On this forum, groupthink coincides with an attack on anyone that gives even the slightest criticism of a current starter, coach, owner, or anyone affiliated with the team.

 

There is no room for understanding, predicting, analyzing and speaking truth to potentials departures. All room is taken up by the “knowing” crowd - those that “know” that another poster is wrong, should post less, etc. Your post above, in a nutshell.

 

Prior to the onslaught of “knowers” bashing my thread, several people had agreed with it. One deleted their post (they were one of the first responses), and another edited their post to say something different. This is because they don’t want to go against the crowd. Groupthink.

 

.

 

Oh quit with this "whoa is me"....you bring this all on yourself.

 

You only want replies with people who agree with you and play the victim when you are criticized.  

 

"They don't want to go against the crowd" lol???  The peer pressure is just so strong on a message board they're afraid to agree with you?

Holy S***

[gonzo1105]

If this is a topic about the Bills defenses success without having really 3 of our starters for periods of time than I think you can chalk it up to scheme by the coaching staff and their ability to coach up the defensive backs. 

 

It might also mean that we have a hell of a lot of depth in the secondary. 

[teef]

1 minute ago, Royale with Cheese said:

 

Oh quit with this "whoa is me"....you bring this all on yourself.

 

You only want replies with people who agree with you and play the victim when you are criticized.  

 

"They don't want to go against the crowd" lol???  The peer pressure is just so strong on a message board they're afraid to agree with you?

Holy S***

you know he loves it.  absolutely loves it.  how many times today do you think you'll see the term, "groupthink".  

[Ethan in Cleveland]

9 minutes ago, BuffaloBillyG said:

Seeing it put this way begs the question. If cutting Hyde still would cost 7 million in dead money and keeping Hyde results in only $3.8 Million dollars more...do you not think Hyde is worth that extra 3.8 million? For his leadership, experience, knowledge of the defense, how he is viewed by his teammates and how he is in the community all while (assuming he heals properly) playing at an extremely high level? 

 

Cutting or trading a team leader, a guy has earned the "C" on his chest, a guy that was still playing extremely well when he got hurt...doing that over 3.8 million of cap space is an absolutely ridiculous idea. 

At the expense of whom?  Oliver? Edmunds? Poyer? Morse? Paying a 32 year safety coming off neck surgery $10.8M is difficult.  Hamlin costs less than $1M and is under contract through 2024.

That $3.8M wont make up all the money you need for Oliver and Edmunds but it helps.  Like it or not these are the hard decisions Beane is going to have to make now that Allen's contract balloons.  There are several restructures that can be done to open up cap space but there is a limit to the number of moves that can be made.  

[Royale with Cheese]

8 minutes ago, teef said:

you know he loves it.  absolutely loves it.  how many times today do you think you'll see the term, "groupthink".  

 

His arrogance was a little shocking.  

 

The first time I interacted with Einstein, he was very firm that the Titans have a better team than the Bills.  Broke it down unit by unit...he was not backing down.

I should have known then the things to come.

[Virgil]

We’d be 6-0 if he were playing.  Valuable enough to me 

[Mango]

Hamlin has been a liability at times. Physically he is "fine" but her certainly seems to have issues with diagnosing plays as accurately or quickly as Hyde does. Maybe he will get there? But right now both safety back ups are full step down from their starters. 

 

I expect Hamlin to be better down the stretch once he is bracketed by a healthy Poyer, Tre, Dane, and Taron.

[teef]

24 minutes ago, Royale with Cheese said:

 

His arrogance was a little shocking.  

 

The first time I interacted with Einstein, he was very firm that the Titans have a better team than the Bills.  Broke it down unit by unit...he was not backing down.

I should have known then the things to come.

well...you can't keep getting attention when you're question is answered and there's not much further to take a thread.  

[Nuncha]

I believe our secondary is so well coached, and the backups so ready to play, they could plug any NFL player in there and not drop off too much.   Two rookies started at corner and backups at both safety spots and those guys all held their own for the most part. 

Edited October 26, 2022 by Azucho98

[WotAGuy]

White, Poyer and Hyde were all over Hopkins and he STILL caught that Hail Mary pass in AZ.  Get rid of all them bums. 

[Royale with Cheese]

12 minutes ago, teef said:

well...you can't keep getting attention when you're question is answered and there's not much further to take a thread.  

 

Yeah but what if it's not the answer you like.  You can just keep moving goal posts right?

[Bleeding Bills Blue]

1 hour ago, Thurman#1 said:

 

 

It might have been worth watching but the evidence is increasingly in.

 

Despite a much better pass rush, the Bills are allowing long passes at a higher rate.

 

Hyde's injury has been compared to that of Eric Wood. There's a chance he may not ever play again. But sour grapes thinking isn't encompassed in clear thought. Losing him hurts a lot. The guys who are replacing him are doing so at replacement value, which is a good thing, but we're losing a lot here. A lot.

 

If he can return next year, and return at the same level, the Bills will likely be thrilled and keep him.

 

1st two games, with Hyde:  10 and 7 points allowed, 191 and 107 yards passing allowed, and 5 INTs filched by the Bills

 

Next four games, without him: 21, 20, 3 and 20 points allowed, 171, 134, 310 and 319 pass yards allowed, and 5 more INTs, in twice as many games

 

Is all that down to Hyde? No, of course not. But is he surely a factor? Hell, yeah.

 

Yeah - what are we losing without Hyde?  I dunno, tackling ability, ball skills, experience... general skill.  

[Einstein]

52 minutes ago, Royale with Cheese said:

 

Oh quit with this "whoa is me"....you bring this all on yourself.

 

Classic response of groupthink.

[Jauronimo]

Just now, Bleeding Bills Blue said:

 

Yeah - what are we losing without Hyde?  I dunno, tackling ability, ball skills, experience... general skill.  

The quarterback of our secondary.  Impeccable football instincts.  Communication.

[Einstein]

7 minutes ago, Azucho98 said:

I believe our secondary is so well coached, and the backups so ready to play, they could plug any NFL player in there and not drop off too much.   Two rookies started at corner and backups at both safety spots and those guys all held their own for the most part. 

 

If that’s the case, then how much do you value Hyde over a replacement?

[Royale with Cheese]

1 minute ago, WotAGuy said:

White, Poyer and Hyde were all over Hopkins and he STILL caught that Hail Mary pass in AZ.  Get rid of all them bums. 

 

In the last few years, we've lost Edmunds, Milano, Settle, White, Poyer, Hyde, Bedford and Oliver due to injuries.

Our defense didn't take much of a step back at all....therefore none listed are very valuable.  

[DaBillsFanSince1973]

The essence of group-think is that groups create psychological pressure on individuals to conform to the views of leaders and other members. Famous examples of group-think include the decision of the US to invade Cuba in 1961 and Coca-Cola's decision to launch “New Coke” in 1985.

 

 

 

[Einstein]

1 minute ago, DaBillsFanSince1973 said:

The essence of group-think is that groups create psychological pressure on individuals to conform to the views of leaders and other members. Famous examples of group-think include the decision of the US to invade Cuba in 1961 and Coca-Cola's decision to launch “New Coke” in 1985.

 

 

 

 

Yes.

And their answers are the right answers.

 

All other answers should be disregarded and the discussion closed.

 

Why keep talking if you already got an “answer” from those that matter?

 

etc

[Royale with Cheese]

3 minutes ago, Einstein said:

 

Classic response of groupthink.

 

You sure nailed it.  Deep down we all agree with everything you have said but we are too afraid to because of group think..

I concede...Allen Robinson is absolutely a top 10 WR and Jeffrey Simmons is a better defensive player than Micah Parsons.  

[goldenboy81]

Usually I'll just say some stupid comment to Einstein posts, but I actually like the word groupthink so I'll pass

[Mr. WEO]

12 hours ago, Warcodered said:

I don't know I like having him around.

 

 

 

A 30 point beatdown of the Mac Joneses is an "instant classic"?

 

lol

[Jauronimo]

4 minutes ago, Royale with Cheese said:

 

You sure nailed it.  Deep down we all agree with everything you have said but we are too afraid to because of group think..

I concede...Allen Robinson is absolutely a top 10 WR and Jeffrey Simmons is a better defensive player than Micah Parsons.  

And Edmunds is trash but we should extend him at all costs.

[Royale with Cheese]

4 minutes ago, Jauronimo said:

And Edmunds is trash but we should extend him at all costs.

 

Is this something new?  I haven't seen these posts.

[Jauronimo]

Just now, Royale with Cheese said:

 

Is this something new?  I haven't seen these posts.

Its the group think.  We all agree that edmunds suck but we don't understand his role in this defense and we want to extend him for top 5 LB money this offseason.  

 

Do you....disagree!?

[Royale with Cheese]

Just now, Jauronimo said:

Its the group think.  We all agree that edmunds suck but we don't understand his role in this defense and we want to extend him for top 5 LB money this offseason.  

 

Do you....disagree!?

 

How can I disagree with that?

[SageAgainstTheMachine]

8 minutes ago, Mr. WEO said:

 

A 30 point beatdown of the Mac Joneses is an "instant classic"?

 

lol

 

Scored a TD on every drive of a playoff game against an opponent that ate our lunch for the two decades prior.  That was an instant classic.

[BillsShredder83]

I understand the vitriol coming out in this thread, however I think it's relevant in a more broad sense. 

 

These are the types of questions that makes GMs GMs! It's a constant cost/benefit question, can't keep everyone, if you can can keep good performance out of a group with someone cheaper, and thus bring up a weaker group,  you have to consider it.

 

I love Hyde, I feel like I'm in the minority that leans towards him over Poyer.

However, say you can move on from one of the two, in exchange for better guard play.... do you do it? How much better does it buy you from guard position?

 

These are all offseason questions and things Beane will be constantly analyzing.

[BuffaloBillyG]

57 minutes ago, Ethan in Cleveland said:

At the expense of whom?  Oliver? Edmunds? Poyer? Morse? Paying a 32 year safety coming off neck surgery $10.8M is difficult.  Hamlin costs less than $1M and is under contract through 2024.

That $3.8M wont make up all the money you need for Oliver and Edmunds but it helps.  Like it or not these are the hard decisions Beane is going to have to make now that Allen's contract balloons.  There are several restructures that can be done to open up cap space but there is a limit to the number of moves that can be made.  

Going off OvertheCap.com (which is not gospel but does provide a sensible baseline IMO) the figured cap relief from potential restructures next year are as follows:

 

White: $5,880,000

Allen: $21,536,000

Diggs: $5,596,000

Morse: $3,287,500

Dawkins: $6,393,750

HYDE: $4,301,250

Miller: $10,864,000

Milano: $6,315,000

 

Grand Total: $64,173,500

 

Granted they will not do all of those restructures. But they have plenty of wiggle room to play with. Notice also that a restructure (or an extension for that matter) with Hyde would actually save a bit more than a trade or cut. Add into that the fact that the salary cap will jump again next year...what's the problem?

 

You also mention Poyer by name as an "at who's expense" example. Well he will be 32 next year, has a growing list of injuries (including a collapsed lung this year) and would cost zero dead money to part ways with next season as he's not under contract. That seems like the obvious move if someone has to be left out. Why give him a contract if, like you said Hamlin costs less than $1 million. And yes Hamiln can play both spots back there.

 

 

 

 

[Thurman#1]

24 minutes ago, Einstein said:

 

Yes.

And their answers are the right answers.

 

All other answers should be disregarded and the discussion closed.

 

Why keep talking if you already got an “answer” from those that matter?

 

etc

 

 

There are two types of people who go on and on about groupthink.

 

The first group are those who have dumb arguments and refuse to understand that that's the reason everyone disagrees with them.

 

And that's your group.

[Warcodered]

23 minutes ago, Mr. WEO said:

 

A 30 point beatdown of the Mac Joneses is an "instant classic"?

 

lol

A perfect offensive game yeah.

[Beck Water]

12 hours ago, Einstein said:

Since Hyde has been out, our defense has given up 16 points per game. More impressively, they gave up only 20 to the high powered Chiefs.

 

🥵 I think you can make the argument that the Bills would have beaten the Dolphins with Hyde playing - that 3rd and 22(?) pass to Hill likely doesn’t happen. But then again, it may not have happened with Poyer playing. They were both out that game.

 

👉  I am certainly not saying we are better without Hyde… but I am asking, how much worse are we really? And does extending (or going into a contract year at $11M cap hit) worth not having a slight drop in quality?

 

Could we trade him for a draft asset?

 

💰 We have a potential “out” with his contact this off-season. It would save us about $4 million in cap space ($11M cap savings minus $7M in dead cap).

 

Hamlin & Johnson combined account for 1/5th of Hyde’s cap hit next year.

 

Poyer is 115 days younger than Hyde. If we had to pick one safety to keep, I think I may lean toward Poyer over Hyde.

If we want to play the with/without Hyde game, we gave up an average of 8.5 ppg  and 215 ypg with Hyde, 16 ppg and 315 ypg without.  So we would have to say he's worth 100 ypg and 7.5 ppg.

 

Since we lost a game by 2 points and won 2 games by 3 and 4 points (meaning they could easily have swung the other way), that sounds valuable even framed in those "let's look at team stats and try to deduce the value of one player" terms

 

Moreover, the "16 PPG" given up stat is misleading.  We have given up 21, 20, 3 and 20 points.  So the average is skewed by one low scoring game against a rookie QB.  Where he moved the ball well, passing for 310 yds, 65% completions - but couldn't seal the deal and get in the EZ. 

 

-------------

 

We run a scheme that's DB friendly. we have a better DL this season (which is also DB friendly) and we have 1 promising backup safety.  In previous seasons, when either Hyde OR Poyer were missing, we never particularly noticed.  But when the injury bug inevitably bites, and we miss both, that may spell trouble.  

 

But the measure of what the all-pro level, experienced players bring may not show up until the playoffs.  We were playing well on D without Tre White with Dane Jackson filling in capably but we still lost some of the capabilities Tre brings, does anyone think he might not have made a difference in the playoffs vs. KC?  (I'm sure someone does, but I don't). 

 

Poyer is unsigned for next season and pretty much has made it clear he wants a longer contract that will carry him through retirement and top-10, maybe top-5 safety pay.    I'd like to have him back, but not sure Beane can swing that.

 

The relatively minor cap savings from cutting Hyde (due to his restructure which amortized restructure payments thru 2026 with "dummy years" would not be worth going into the draft with Hamlin and Johnson pencilled in as our starting safeties.  Big drop-off there IMO.

 

--------------

 

I don't think there's much trade market for a 32 yr old DB coming off neck surgery at $7.2M.  He hopes to come back - so did Aaron Williams - but there's a real chance he won't be medically cleared (in which case we may be on the hook for his full salary).  There's also the same perception that he plays in a "whole is greater than the sum of the parts" DB-friendly scheme.

 

[RocCityRoller]

23 minutes ago, Mr. WEO said:

 

A 30 point beatdown of the Mac Joneses is an "instant classic"?

 

lol

It was for a lot of us. After watching 20 years of frustration being unleashed and dealt out in the playoffs in front of the NFL world it was.

 

All I could think of after the game was Ralphie beating the heck out of Farkus (his bully) in Christmas Story.

I have a lot of non-Bills fans who contacted me after that game and they almost enjoyed seeing the Pats get destroyed as much as we did.