Gunner's roster thread 2022

[GunnerBill]

I used to do this thread each year but haven't done one for a couple of years. In a quiet moment yesterday afternoon I sat down with the roster and tried to work out where I think the decision points will come. So I thought I'd revive this thread as a way of helping crystalise my thoughts. 

 

Firstly, this is not a roster prediction, people will start putting together 53s at this stage but my view is always that those last handful of spots are really difficult to correctly forecast until camp and pre-season arrive. This is more about starting to focus in on where the position battles are and where the position v position decisions will come. 

 

Key - see colour codes below.... these are important, because red does not mean cut and blue does not mean on the bubble. 

 

BLACK - Guaranteed roster spot (excluding major injury or suspension)

BLUE - Probable roster spot

RED - Fighting for those last few spots

 

 

Quarterback

Josh Allen

Case Keenum

Matt Barkley

 

Running back

Devin Singletary

James Cook

Reggie Gilliam FB

Zack Moss

Taiwan Jones

Duke Johnson

Raheem Blackshear

 

Wide receiver

Stefon Diggs

Gabriel Davis

Khalil Shakir

Jamison Crowder

Isaiah McKenzie

Jake Kumerow

Marquez Stevenson

Tanner Gentry

Isaiah Hodgins

Neil Pau'u

Malik Williams

 

Tight End

Dawson Knox

O. J. Howard

Quintin Morris

Tommy Sweeney

Jalen Wydermyer

 

Offensive Line

Dion Dawkins 

Spencer Brown 

Rodger Saffold 

Mitch Morse

Ryan Bates

Ike Boettger 

Tommy Doyle 

David Quessenberry 

Cody Ford 

Greg Mancz 

Bobby Hart 

Luke Tenuta 

Will Ulmer

Derek Kerstetter

Jacob Capra 

Alec Anderson

Tanner Owen 

 

Defensive Line

Ed Oliver 

Von Miller 

Gregory Rousseau

DaQuan Jones 

Carlos Basham Jr. 

Tim Settle

Jordan Phillips 

A. J. Epenesa

Shaq Lawson 

Mike Love 

Eli Ankou

Kingsley Jonathan 

Brandin Bryant 

 

Linebacker

Tremaine Edmunds

Matt Milano 

Terrel Bernard

Tyler Matakevich 

Tyrel Dodson

Andre Smith 

Baylon Spector 

Joe Giles-Harris

Marquel Lee

 

Cornerback

Tre'Davious White

Kaiir Elam

Taron Johnson

Dane Jackson

Siran Neal 

Christian Benford

Cam Lewis

Travon Fuller

Olaijah Griffin

Tim Harris

Nick McCloud

 

Safety

Jordan Poyer

Micah Hyde

Jaquan Johnson

Damar Hamlin

Josh Thomas

 

Special Teams

Tyler Bass

Reid Ferguson

Matt Araiza

Matt Haack

 

 

I make that 33 locks and 9 likelys leaving 11 spots for the rest to fight over. Obviously one of those is the winner of the punter battle - which I fully expect to be Araiza, but while the Bills are saying it is a camp battle they both have to be in red. That takes you down to 10 spots. At least 1 more linebacker, at least 1 more offensive lineman, at least 1 more safety and at least 1 more WR/RB.... that takes you down to 6 and then it becomes a question about which spots they want to prioritise having extra depth and special teams. I expect one of Kumerow and Taiwan Jones to make it as a starting gunner but unless Kumerow is legit the 6th best receiver (and maybe he will be) then I wouldn't expect both of them. I expect another corner to make it and Benford as the recent draft pick would seem to have the inside track and then I expect another tight end.... but I am not totally persuaded that guy has to come from the current roster. Could be an area where a vet shakes loose and the Bills scoop him up. 

[LeGOATski]

7 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

In a quiet moment yesterday afternoon I sat down with the roster...

After this I read the rest of your post in the voice of Mr. Rogers.

 

Agree with everything except Matt Araiza is blue.

[GunnerBill]

1 minute ago, LeGOATski said:

After this I read the rest of your post in the voice of Mr. Rogers.

 

Agree with everything except Matt Araiza is blue.

 

I think that is by far the most likely outcome, sure. But the team is doing its usual "they are in a competition" and "slow your roll" so for now I'm reflecting that. 

[njbuff]

Pretty good breakdown.

[Kirby Jackson]

Good stuff Gunner!! It looks pretty close to accurate. There are only a couple of places that I differ:

- I’d move Howard to blue. He likely makes the team but has had injury issues & been a disappointment. I loved that guy coming out but wouldn’t be shocked if he was cut. He would have to be a nightmare because almost all of his money is guaranteed. I’m just saying if he is totally outplayed by someone like Wydermyer (for example) I could see them eating the $3M. Unlikely but not impossible IMO

- I’d move all 3 OL in blue to red. I’m just not sure that the Bills have a sense how the depth will shake out at this point.
- I’d flip flop Dodson and Matakevich. Dodson played well last year & Matakevich COULD be used to free up some cash if they get a camp injury. 
- Ariaza to blue (or even black). He isn’t battling with Haack. He is here to replace him. If he’s an absolute nightmare as a holder I think that it’s possible they buck the trend & have someone other than the punter hold (Kumerow maybe). Haack was terrible & Beane commented as much last year. He drafted one of the most talented punters ever. I don’t think hangtime is his major concern. He wanted Araiza to dig them out when the offense sputters in their own end. 
 

My $.02 and a great job overall.

[LeGOATski]

2 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

I think that is by far the most likely outcome, sure. But the team is doing its usual "they are in a competition" and "slow your roll" so for now I'm reflecting that. 

Yeah, that's what McD does with certain rookies. But do you agree that it's Araiza's job to lose, figuratively speaking?

[GunnerBill]

2 minutes ago, LeGOATski said:

Yeah, that's what McD does with certain rookies. But do you agree that it's Araiza's job to lose, figuratively speaking?

 

I do.

[LeGOATski]

8 minutes ago, Kirby Jackson said:

Good stuff Gunner!! It looks pretty close to accurate. There are only a couple of places that I differ:

- I’d move Howard to blue. He likely makes the team but has had injury issues & been a disappointment. I loved that guy coming out but wouldn’t be shocked if he was cut. He would have to be a nightmare because almost all of his money is guaranteed. I’m just saying if he is totally outplayed by someone like Wydermyer (for example) I could see them eating the $3M. Unlikely but not impossible IMO

- I’d move all 3 OL in blue to red. I’m just not sure that the Bills have a sense how the depth will shake out at this point.
- I’d flip flop Dodson and Matakevich. Dodson played well last year & Matakevich COULD be used to free up some cash if they get a camp injury. 
- Ariaza to blue (or even black). He isn’t battling with Haack. He is here to replace him. If he’s an absolute nightmare as a holder I think that it’s possible they buck the trend & have someone other than the punter hold (Kumerow maybe). Haack was terrible & Beane commented as much last year. He drafted one of the most talented punters ever. I don’t think hangtime is his major concern. He wanted Araiza to dig them out when the offense sputters in their own end. 
 

My $.02 and a great job overall.

Cutting Andre Smith and the others will save just as much, wouldn't it? I think Matakevich is definitely blue for special teams play and decent depth.

[GunnerBill]

6 minutes ago, Kirby Jackson said:

Good stuff Gunner!! It looks pretty close to accurate. There are only a couple of places that I differ:

- I’d move Howard to blue. He likely makes the team but has had injury issues & been a disappointment. I loved that guy coming out but wouldn’t be shocked if he was cut. He would have to be a nightmare because almost all of his money is guaranteed. I’m just saying if he is totally outplayed by someone like Wydermyer (for example) I could see them eating the $3M. Unlikely but not impossible IMO

- I’d move all 3 OL in blue to red. I’m just not sure that the Bills have a sense how the depth will shake out at this point.
- I’d flip flop Dodson and Matakevich. Dodson played well last year & Matakevich COULD be used to free up some cash if they get a camp injury. 
- Ariaza to blue (or even black). He isn’t battling with Haack. He is here to replace him. If he’s an absolute nightmare as a holder I think that it’s possible they buck the trend & have someone other than the punter hold (Kumerow maybe). Haack was terrible & Beane commented as much last year. He drafted one of the most talented punters ever. I don’t think hangtime is his major concern. He wanted Araiza to dig them out when the offense sputters in their own end. 
 

My $.02 and a great job overall.

 

The only one of those I strongly disagree with is Matakevich and Dodson. I do think Matakevich is by far the most likely of the backup linebackers to make the roster. All the others are options I considered when I put it together. 

[Paul Costa]

Great 👍 job to get the roster conversation started. Pretty accurate. Everyone’s opinion will slightly differ on who makes the 53. Like the punt God will win job but can’t pencil in yet. Kinda thing. 😳

[LeGOATski]

4 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

I do.

Right. Haack is the only one really fighting for a spot. He can't keep the job by simply doing what he does.

[GunnerBill]

2 minutes ago, LeGOATski said:

Right. Haack is the only one really fighting for a spot. He can't keep the job by simply doing what he does.

 

No but Beane has said that he thinks last year was just a down year. If Haack punts well in camp and pre-season and Araiza struggles with his holds I don't think it is beyond the realm of possibility that Araiza loses the job. I doubt they take chances with Tyler Bass. But I do think it is his to lose, if that makes sense. 

[Mr. WEO]

Why is Gilliam likely to get a spot?  He’s not even an every down special teamer 

[Udubalum07]

Good breakdown, the only thing I would change is at safety. I think Hamlin is the one probable to make the team and Johnson will be fighting for a spot. I believe Hamlin will be starting if not next year for Poyer, then it would be the following year for Hyde.

[GunnerBill]

8 minutes ago, Udubalum07 said:

Good breakdown, the only thing I would change is at safety. I think Hamlin is the one probable to make the team and Johnson will be fighting for a spot. I believe Hamlin will be starting if not next year for Poyer, then it would be the following year for Hyde.

 

When Poyer missed a game last year Johnson started (played very well, had a pick, albeit against soft opposition in Houston) AND he is their personal protector on punt teams. Think it is highly unlikely with a new punter that they are willing to move on from Johnson this year. 

[atlbillsfan1975]

The evolution of the roster depends partly on the Bills moving away from higher paid special team players. I think we see this happening more this season where later round picks are coached up to become the next Matakevich and T. Jones on rookie team friendly deals. The team has organizationally cultivated leaders at value positions now. 

[4merper4mer]

24 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

When Poyer missed a game last year Johnson started (played very well, had a pick, albeit against soft opposition in Houston) AND he is their personal protector on punt teams. Think it is highly unlikely with a new punter that they are willing to move on from Johnson this year. 

Not sure if your reds are listed in any particular order but what do you know about Kerstetter?  I think he was a legit prospect heading into college and Texas was a mess.

 

I understand what you did with punter and it makes sense. I’m rooting for the rookie because I’ve seen enough of Haack but holding isn’t the only issue for Araiza.  I’d also have Moss in blue.

[No_Matter_What]

1 hour ago, GunnerBill said:

BLACK - Guaranteed roster spot (excluding major injury or suspension)

BLUE - Probable roster spot

RED - Fighting for those last few spots

 

I mostly agree but would make following changes:

 

Crowder is black. I see no scenario in which he is cut with no savings at all. I'd also add McKenzie. You think that it is realistic that Hodgins and Stevenson both make team instead of him? Or that Kumerow + Hodgins/Stevenson make the team and we only keep 6 WRs? I think that it is extremely unlikely.

 

Lawson should be blue. Last year we kept 6 DEs. This year he is 5th DE. I agree that he is not a lock, but he is definitely "probable".

 

Hamlin also has to be blue. His only competition is Thomas (ok, maybe Benford) and he is not fighting for a spot; it is his spot to lose. Hence "probable" imo.

 

As others said Araiza is also blue if not black. @Kirby Jackson said it best. I read all your responses from this thread regarding Araiza and I think he should be at least blue by your own words  

 

56 minutes ago, LeGOATski said:

Cutting Andre Smith and the others will save just as much, wouldn't it? I think Matakevich is definitely blue for special teams play and decent depth.

 

Cutting Matakevich saves almost §1,4M MORE than cutting Smith. Matakevich and Ford are actually only players who could be realistically cut and save some decent money. I'd love to cut him cap wise. But I doubt they will do it (and I obviously want them to keep him if it is necessary for ST play).

[Magox]

I agree with a lot of it, the only places I'd differ is Araiza and Dodson in blue.

[Big Turk]

There is no punter battle. Haack is as good as gone.

[GunnerBill]

20 minutes ago, 4merper4mer said:

Not sure if your reds are listed in any particular order but what do you know about Kerstetter?  I think he was a legit prospect heading into college and Texas was a mess.

 

I understand what you did with punter and it makes sense. I’m rooting for the rookie because I’ve seen enough of Haack but holding isn’t the only issue for Araiza.  I’d also have Moss in blue.

 

Not really any sort of order. I took the wikipedia list then just restructured them until they made sense for my colour codes but didn't re-order within colour codes if that makes sense. I'll be honest and Kerstetter and say almost nothing but I do think the spot where these UDFA types have the best chance to stick is the Oline depth spots. 

[SoCal Deek]

1 hour ago, Mr. WEO said:

Why is Gilliam likely to get a spot?  He’s not even an every down special teamer 

You know it’s interesting, but I watched a good portion of the Chiefs playoff game the other night o NFL Network and I’d forgotten that Gilliam was on the field whole lot of that game. I can’t say he really did all that much but I honestly don’t know that I remember him playing that day at all. Go figure.

[Whites Bay]

19 minutes ago, Big Turk said:

There is no punter battle. Haack is as good as gone.

My gut call as well (speaking, of course, as just another knucklehead on a fan board).  Imagine this thought experiment:

 

1) Araiza loses the punt battle and the team tries to stash him on the practice squad.

2) Araiza lasts about 34 minutes on the practice squad before he's signed elsewhere.

3) Haack shanks a punt in the first game.

4) This board collectively goes to the closet to get out the pitchforks and torches.

[SoCal Deek]

Just now, Whites Bay said:

My gut call as well (speaking, of course, as just another knucklehead on a fan board).  Imagine this thought experiment:

 

1) Araiza loses the punt battle and the team tries to stash him on the practice squad.

2) Araiza lasts about 34 minutes on the practice squad before he's signed elsewhere.

3) Haack shanks a punt in the first game.

4) This board collectively goes to the closet to get out the pitchforks and torches.

Close…but I keep my pitchfork right next to the TV….just in case. (I don’t want to be rummaging through the closet when the Bills are on.)

[Big Turk]

1 hour ago, Mr. WEO said:

Why is Gilliam likely to get a spot?  He’s not even an every down special teamer 

 

He serves a function nobody else on the roster can.  Ie, play fullback when they need him to a few plays a game.

[Simon Says]

My first 2 observations;

I dont consider McKenzie and Crowder as a probables, I look at them as  locks.

And I dont see who the backup center would be. I'm not assuming Bates would move to center if Morse gets hurt; that requires TWO moves; C and RG. I think Mancz has to make the  53 as backup C ,or,Ford beats out Bates at RG.

Obviously,when it comes to special teams,reserves from various position groups compete with each other. i.e. Kumerow vs. Jones vs. Gilliam 

Edited May 17, 2022 by Georgie

[GunnerBill]

38 minutes ago, Big Turk said:

 

He serves a function nobody else on the roster can.  Ie, play fullback when they need him to a few plays a game.

 

And just generally can be that backfield blocker. Gilliam would be less of a cert if they had a true blocking tight end. But they don't. As for @Mr. WEO's point about teams.... Gilliam doesn't play FGs and XPs. He plays all the coverage and kick off teams and is a core player on those units. Only Matakevich played more last year. He used to be our wing protector on punts.... haven't looked closely enough at ST usage in 2021 yet, it's on my to do list. 

13 minutes ago, Georgie said:

My first 2 observations;

I dont consider McKenzie a probable, I look at him as a lock. And I dont see who the backup center would be. I'm not assuming Bates would move to center if Morse gets hurt; that requires TWO moves; C and RG. I think Mancz has to make the  53 as backup C ,or,Ford beats out Bates at RG.

Obviously,when it comes to special teams,reserves from various position groups compete with each other. 

 

I don't know that the backup center is on the team. If it HAS to be someone out of the current 85 or whatever we have, then yes, Mancz makes most sense... but the backup OL spots are the least settled part of the roster IMO. 

 

On STs... Jones and Kumerow are very much competing for 1 job, in my view. Gilliam is a slightly different case.... the role he plays on teams means he is more in competition with backup linebackers than running backs and receivers as gunners. 

Edited May 17, 2022 by GunnerBill

[BearNorth]

I have four guys signed that are not on your list.  Assume they would all be "reds"

Keith Corbin WR

CJ Brewer DL

Prince Emili DL

Ja'Marcus Ingram DB

[Your Brown Eye]

Decent, nothing ground-breaking though

[Fan in Chicago]

2 hours ago, Kirby Jackson said:

Good stuff Gunner!! It looks pretty close to accurate. There are only a couple of places that I differ:

 

- I’d move all 3 OL in blue to red. I’m just not sure that the Bills have a sense how the depth will shake out at this point.

This is my single biggest concern about this roster, and also a source of frustration about the relative lack of attention to an area which is critical to protecting Allen. Beane did say after the season ended, that we need to protect Allen more. This is the single area where I don't see his words followed by adequate action. '

 

Besides OL, I dont see any position as short staffed. 

[elijah]

I agree with most of it, seems pretty accurate. Just a couple I would change —

 

 - Keenum to blue

 - Moss to blue 

 - Quessenbury to red

 - Phillips to blue

 

I see a possibility that from a familiarity standpoint the Bills like Barkley more than Keenum throughout camp. It was only a 7th spent on Keenum. I think it’s likely than Keenum is the guy on the roster, but just not ready to call it a lock yet. 

 

I’m not a fan of Zack Moss whatsoever, however just 2 years removed from spending a 3rd rounder on him, combined with this being Singletary’s last year on contract, I think it’s far more likely we see him ride the inactive list all year than it is he gets cut. 

 

Not much of my own research, especially as I could be much better at assessing OL play than I am, but I’ve seen a lot on Twitter about Quessenbury was not a strong starter at all. Sort of like Bobby Hart a few years ago where he had all these games started but it turns out they were atrocious performances. I think you can move him to red and out of that long list of red guys in the OL category expect 1 or maybe 2 of them to make the roster. 

 

The defensive line depth is loaded this year, I’d call Phillips probable to make the roster but a lock this early in the offseason is a stretch IMO. He signed pretty late in the offseason and we’ve bolstered our UDFA depth at DT. I’d assume he makes the roster, but not at a ‘roster lock’ level yet. 

 

Good work @GunnerBill 🍻 

[Rico]

You are most correct to have Crowder in blue, he is no lock to make the team.

[OldTimer1960]

3 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

 

I think that is by far the most likely outcome, sure. But the team is doing its usual "they are in a competition" and "slow your roll" so for now I'm reflecting that. 

Is Araiza’s release quick enough?  I’m not saying that it is, but it seems a little slow from what I’ve seen.  Does he take an extra step compared to many punters?

[Simon Says]

1 hour ago, GunnerBill said:

 

And just generally can be that backfield blocker. Gilliam would be less of a cert if they had a true blocking tight end. But they don't. As for @Mr. WEO's point about teams.... Gilliam doesn't play FGs and XPs. He plays all the coverage and kick off teams and is a core player on those units. Only Matakevich played more last year. He used to be our wing protector on punts.... haven't looked closely enough at ST usage in 2021 yet, it's on my to do list. 

 

I don't know that the backup center is on the team. If it HAS to be someone out of the current 85 or whatever we have, then yes, Mancz makes most sense... but the backup OL spots are the least settled part of the roster IMO. 

 

On STs... Jones and Kumerow are very much competing for 1 job, in my view. Gilliam is a slightly different case.... the role he plays on teams means he is more in competition with backup linebackers than running backs and receivers as gunners. 

I had originally missed that Crowder was also a "probable",like McKenzie. I think both make the team.

If Bills are going to run more 2 TE sets,Sweeney could possibly take Gilliam's spot. How much do they really  need a "fullback"?

Somebody has to return kicks and though McKenzie and Stevenson are both dangerous, their ball security is iffy. 

I could see some young players taking ST reps 

[GunnerBill]

Just now, Georgie said:

I had originally missed that Crowder was also a "probable",like McKenzie. I think both make the team.

If Bills are going to run more 2 TE sets,Sweeney could possibly take Gilliam's spot. How much do they really  need a "fullback"?

Somebody has to return kicks and though McKenzie and Stevenson are both dangerous, their ball security is iffy. 

I could see some young players taking ST reps 

 

Sweeney cannot take Gilliam's spot. He is dreadful. He can't block. 

 

I think Crowder and McKenzie make the team too. I have them in blue because I can envision a situation for both where they don't. The chances are slim but they exist. Guys in blue are still guys I expect to make the roster. I'd be surprised if any of the guys in blue don't make it. But they are not "locks" in the way the guys in black are. 

[Mr Info]

Thx for the analysis.

 

Wow, that roster looks good!

 

Time for a celebratory cocktail. 🥳

[GunnerBill]

1 hour ago, elijah said:

 

Not much of my own research, especially as I could be much better at assessing OL play than I am, but I’ve seen a lot on Twitter about Quessenbury was not a strong starter at all. Sort of like Bobby Hart a few years ago where he had all these games started but it turns out they were atrocious performances. I think you can move him to red and out of that long list of red guys in the OL category expect 1 or maybe 2 of them to make the roster. 

 

On Quessenbury, he is better than Bobby Hart. Don't get me wrong he is a backup level player, not a starter, but he is the only guy on the roster other than Hart and the two starters who has started an NFL game at tackle. Until they sign someone better (and of course they might) I anticipate him being the swing tackle backup. 

[Ralonzo]

3 hours ago, Mr. WEO said:

Why is Gilliam likely to get a spot?  He’s not even an every down special teamer 

Gilliam is multiple with a blocking gadget role inline/H-back/fullback that others can’t replicate (looking at you Tommy Sweeney).

[HappyDays]

I'm still confused on what the plan is at DE. In a vacuum I wouldn't expect Shaq Lawson to be a roster lock. But they usually keep 6 DEs, and without him there's only 4 left in Miller, Rousseau, Basham, and Epenesa. So as it is they are bringing less rosterable DEs to camp than usual and the bottom of the position group is notably weak. Maybe they plan on adding a veteran?

[Ralonzo]

12 minutes ago, Georgie said:

If Bills are going to run more 2 TE sets,Sweeney could possibly take Gilliam's spot. How much do they really  need a "fullback"?

 If they run more 2 TE sets I’d prefer a TE2 who is good at any one of: blocking, catching, or route running. Which Sweeney is not.